Long-term global availability of steel scrap

Primary steelmaking involves CO₂-intensive processes, but the expansion of secondary steel production is limited by the global availability of steel scrap. The present work examines global scrap consumption in the past (1870–2012) and future scrap availability (2013–2050) based on the historical trend. The results reveal that (i) historically, the consumption of old scrap has been insufficient compared with the amounts of discarded steel, and (ii) based on historical scrap consumption, the future availability of scrap will not be sufficient to satisfy the two assumed cases of steel demand. Primary steelmaking is expected to remain the dominant process, at least up until 2050. Under the reference-demand case of 2.19 billion tons in crude steel production by 2050, the total production of pig iron and direct reduced iron could reach 1.35 billion tons. Consumption of old scrap could reach 0.76 billion tons. Because the availability of scrap will be limited in the context of the global total, it is important to research and develop innovative low-carbon technologies for primary steelmaking and to explore their economic viability if we are to aim for achieving large reductions in CO₂ emissions from the iron and steel industry.     

Forecasting iron ore import and consumption of China using grey model optimized by particle swarm optimization algorithm

The iron and steel industry plays a fundamental role in a country's national economy, especially in developing countries. China is the largest iron ore consumption market in the world. However, because of limited domestic iron ore resources, a large proportion of iron ore is imported from other countries. Faced with the conflict between the iron ore supply shortage and the growing demand, it is necessary for the government to predict imports and total consumption. This paper develops a high-precision hybrid model based on grey prediction and rolling mechanism optimized by particle swarm optimization algorithm. We use the China Statistical Yearbook (1996–2011) as our database to test the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method. According to the experimental results, the proposed new method clearly can improve the prediction accuracy of the original grey model. Future projections have also been done for iron ore imports and total consumption in China in the next five years.     

Decision-making instruments for container seaport sustainable development: management platform and system dynamics model

Environment Systems and Decisions - Global seaborne container trade accounts for approximately 60% of all world seaborne trade. A container seaport is a key node in maritime transport, where...     

Pig iron production structure in Japan

Japan is the world's largest steel producing country, and around half of its total input requirements for coking coal and iron ore are sourced from Australia. Moreover, around half of Australia's total coking coal and iron ore exports go to Japan each year. Therefore, changes in the demand for these two inputs are likely to have a significant impact on Australia. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the production structure of the blast furnaces in Japan and factors affecting the demand for iron making raw materials. The empirical study is based on the generalized Leontief cost function. Because of its functional flexibility, the model allows testing various hypotheses regarding pig iron production from blast furnaces. Based on the data from 1974 to 1991, the modelling results show that the Japanese ironmaking technology, when considered as an aggregate production process using fuel and iron ore as major inputs, could be characterized by fixed factor proportions, constant returns to scale and technical changes that can be explained by systematic changes in input mix. Moreover, while there is little variation in the iron ore usage rate, variations in fuel usage rate can be explained largely by changes in the make-up of iron ore charge and blast furnace production capacity over the sample period.     

THE BUREAU OF RECLAMATION'S ROLE IN AMERICA'S GROWTH1

ABSTRACT. The Bureau of Reclamation was created to implement the Reclamation Act of 1902 and subsequent legislation to conserve and develop the water resources of the western states for maximum efficient use. This has been accomplished by the planning and construction of major multiple use projects which now supply water to approximately eight million acres of land which annually produce 52 million tons of food and fiber with a gross crop value of approximately $2 billion. Fifteen million people are served with municipal and industrial water supplies and hydroelectric power from Bureau projects now returns $160 million annually to the Treasury. Flood control, recreation, and fish and wildlife enhancement are other major benefits. The Bureau of Reclamation is now undertaking a Westwide Survey of water resources and of the needs of the future which is more far-reaching than anything heretofore accomplished. The information accumulated during this ten-year survey will determine whether there is a necessity for consideration of major interbasin transfer of water supply.     

中国消费中长期发展趋势及能源环境效应研究

随着消费在经济发展中的比重逐步增加,其引致的能源消耗和污染物排放越来越不容忽视。本研究基于投入产出模型,分别测算了居民消费引致的直接和间接能源消耗与污染物排放,然后参考发达国家相应发展阶段的居民消费结构,展望未来居民消费发展趋势,进一步测算未来居民消费的能源与环境效应。未来我国消费占GDP的比重将稳步上升,到2050年逐步提高到70%以上;居民消费结构将显著调整,食品占比显著下降,仅为15%,文教娱乐、医疗保健和其他服务占比显著上升;居民消费引致的一次能源需求到2050年将达到30.4亿吨标煤,占全社会能源需求的52.4%;化学需氧量、氨氮、二氧化硫和氮氧化物排放量将分别达到2497万t、261万t、1722万t、1157万t,占全社会污染物排放产生量的60%以上。研究表明,进一步强化居民消费产品绿色低碳发展、优化居民消费结构,将成为未来推进我国高质量发展和污染防治的重要领域。     

Long-term iron ore price modeling: Marginal costs vs. incentive price

The paper studies and applies the approaches to forecast long-term (LT) real prices of iron ore. This price is crucial for valuation of investments in Greenfield iron ore projects on the horizon of more than 5 years. The forecast is obtained by three different approaches which are usually used by investment bank analysts: marginal costs approach and 2 approaches based on calculation of incentive price. The paper concludes that there has been a structural shift on the iron ore market and LT iron ore prices will be higher by 20–30% than the average of industry forecasters suggest. This is related to the 2 key factors which were taken into account in this study—depletion of existing iron ore deposits and targeted return on investments for new projects. In addition, escalated industry costs inflation is claimed to be the factor which will bolster nominal iron ore prices at high levels in the long-term. Using a Monte-Carlo simulation approach, confidence interval for future iron ore price was estimated.     

Investigating the sustainability of the global silver supply,reserves, stocks in society and market price using different approaches

The authors have collected data for the silver market, shedding light on market size, stocks in society and silver flows in society. The world supply from mining, depletion of the remaining reserves, reducing ore grades, market price and turnover of silver was simulated using the SILVER model developed for this study. The model combines mining, trade markets, price mechanisms, populations dynamics, use in society and waste and recycling into an integrated system. At the same time the degree of sustainability and resource time horizon was estimated using different methods such as: 1: burn-off rates, 2: peak discovery early warning, 3: Hubbert's production model, and 4: System dynamic modelling. The Hubbert's model was run for the period of 6000 BC–3000 AD, the SILVER system dynamics model was run for the time range 1840–2340. We have estimated that the ultimately recoverable reserves of silver are in the range 2.7–3.1 million tonne silver at present, of which approximately 1.35–1.46 million tonne have already been mined. The timing estimate range for peak silver production is narrow, in the range 2027–2038, with the best estimate in 2034. By 2240, all silver mines will be nearly empty and exhausted. The outputs from all models converge to emphasize the importance of consistent recycling and the avoidance of irreversible losses to make society more sustainable with respect to silver market supply.     

中原经济区能源消费视角下的大气环境压力评估

研究以能源消费模式为切入点,分析中原经济区能源消费总量、消费结构和利用效率的现状水平,并分析能源消费引起的大气环境压力状况。基于经济发展速度调控及节能减排力度的不同,设置2020年三种能源消费情景,使用区域能源消费总量优化模型模拟预测不同情景下的能源消费总量,并分析不同情景下的大气环境压力。结果表明,快速发展和适度发展Ⅰ情景下,2020年区域能源消费总量将比2012年增加4.2×10~8tce和2.4×10~8tce,煤炭消费总量将增加3.1×10~8tce和1.2×10~8tce,大气污染物排放压力增加30%和50%;适度发展Ⅱ情景下,能源消费总量将增加0.2×10~8tce,煤炭消费总量将下降0.3×10~8tce,大气污染物排放压力将降低20%。因此,要实现经济发展稳步增长(年均增长率7.7%)和大气污染物排放总量削减10%目标,重中之重是实现煤炭消费总量"零增长"或"负增长",同时力争能源消费总量控制在5×10~8~6×10~8tce,凭借煤炭占比大幅下降(降至65%左右)最大限度发挥能源供给领域节能效应,依靠产业结构升级节能效应和技术节能拓展能源消费领域节能空间,将能效水平提高至0.6tce/万元以下。     

Exploration's Role in Iron and Aluminum Supply Since the Second World War

This paper analyses the role of exploration in the worldwide supply of iron and aluminum by (1) reviewing changes in the level and geographic distribution of exploration since 1945, (2) studying important discoveries, and (3) comparing exploration's role in iron and aluminum supply with its role in the supply of other metals. It finds that even though exploration and discovery of new deposits account for part of the tremendous postwar expansion in the level and geographic distribution of iron ore and bauxite production, most of the areas that became major producers were known to contain significant mineralization long before detailed evaluation, development, and mining occurred. These areas needed increased consumer demand, lower ocean freight costs, or improved processing techniques to become economically attractive. Iron and aluminum are easier-to-find yet harder-to-process, and compared with other metals, discovering a better deposit will not reduce overall costs to the same degree as other cost-reducing forms of investment.     

The material resources for the iron and steel industries

The future supplies of iron ore, coking coal and ferrous scrap are discussed. There is no likelihood of the resources of iron ore being exhausted until well into the twenty-first century. Coking coal, on the other hand, is in shorter supply but it is being eked out by blending with non-coking coal and by making blast furnaces more efficient. Briquettes made completely from non-coking coal will play a part in iron making in the future. To ensure greater flexibility in steel making, hydrocarbons are being considered as possible substitutes for coal. Scrap has always played an important part in steel making and the amount recycled is increasing every year. But more effort is needed, for example, to ensure that the steel in car scrap is fully utilised and that refuse is efficiently recycled. Steel making increasingly demands the scrap to have few impurities and to be in uniform sized pieces. A cryogenic method of preparing such scrap is described. A futuristic way of extracting iron, non-ferrous metals and other saleeable by-products from refuse, by using redundant blast furnaces, is also discussed.     

The growth of develop-for-import projects

This article examines develop-for-import projects financed by development loans and mixed credits supplied by export-import banks and other financial institutions of the central governments of France, Japan and the Federal Republic of Germany. The projects discussed are those producing bauxite, alumina, aluminium, chromium, copper, iron, manganese, molybdenum, nickel and tungsten, in developing market economies, Australia and Canada. The article estimates the volume of these metals committed to France, Japan and FRG to pay for loans and credits, examines the types of financial arrangement involved in develop-for-import projects, and considers the compatibility of these arrangements with the multilateral liberalized world trading system developed by the General Ageement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) over the past 40 years. To the extent that these arrangements do not fully reflect changes in international market forces, world trade in metals will tend to be distorted and discriminatory.     

Rare-Earth Oxide Availability in Market Economy Countries

This paper presents a review by the Bureau of Mines on the 1985 status of the rare earths industry in the Market Economy Countries (MEC). Demonstrated resources for the 38 evaluated MEC properties are estimated at 3.3 million metric tons of recoverable rare-earth oxides. About 75% of the total is contained in producing properties, and 21% are contained in undeveloped properties; the remaining 4% are contained in past producers. Total MEC production in 1985 was estimated at 30 500 mt. Assuming demand does not increase sharply, producing properties can continue to meet overall rare earths demand through at least the end of this century.     

充分利用农业资源,发展我国粮食生产

我国粮食生产的制约因素较多。为了达到我国粮食产量稳定增长的目的,我们必须针对我国农业资源的特点,趋利避害,充分发挥其优势,挖掘生产潜力;搞好宏观调控,调动各方面的积极性,发展粮食生产。这样,2000年实观我国粮食总产量达到 5亿t,人均占有粮食400kg 的目的是可能的。     

RESOURCE DEMANDS FOR ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: This paper reports on the development of a mathematical model for forecasting energy development in the Yellowstone study area for the years 1985 and 2000, and determining the associated economic demands for water, land, labor, capital, and mineral resources. The study was prepared for use by the Missouri River Basin Commission in conducting a comprehensive, “Level B” planning study of the water and related land resources in the Yellowstone River Basin. The study results indicate that the amount of coal development in the Yellowstone study area will depend primarily upon state and federal energy policies and regulations. Policies related to slurry pipeline transportation of coal will be particularly important in determining the level and pattern of future energy development in the area. Coal production under the “most probable” scenario is expected to increase from about 40 million tons in 1976 to 163 million tons per year by 1985, and 513 million tons in the year 2000. Consumptive water use for energy development in the study area could be as much as 556,000 acre-feet per year by the year 2000 (under the high scenario). A parametric analysis was conducted on the 1985 most probably scenario to determine the influence on the study results of variations in the delivered price of water. Water requirements were reduced by nearly one-fourth as water costs increased from zero to over $750 per acre-foot.     

Quantification of Chinese steel cycle flow: Historical status and future options

China is the largest steel producer and consumer around the world. Quantifying the Chinese steel flow from cradle to grave can assist this industry to fully understand its historical status and future options on production route transformation, capacity planning, scrap availability, resource and energy consumption. With the help of the systematic methods combined dynamic MFA (material flow analysis) with scenario analysis, the Chinese steel cycle during the first half of the 21st century was quantified and several thought-provoking conclusions were draw. In the past decade, lots of pig iron or molten iron was fed into EAF (electric arc furnace) and the scrap usage of EAF fluctuated slightly. Thus, the real scrap-EAF route share is much lower than the EAF production share. On the other hand, we reconfirmed that the scrap supply in China will rise significantly in the future. Meanwhile, the secondary production route share will grow sharply and exceed primary production share before or after 2050 depending on our options. The scrap recycling rate and construction's lifetime play a vital role in this trend. In the end, an intensive discussion on production capacities’ adjustment and energy and resource consumption was conducted and relative policy suggestions were given. It is worth noting that scrap usage is crucial to future energy saving and emissions reduction of Chinese steel sector and its energy consumption might peak as early as 2015.     

On modelling the global copper mining rates,market supply,copper price and the end of copper reserves

The world supply and turnover of copper was modelled using simple empirical estimates and a COPPER systems dynamics model developed for this study. The model combines mining, trade markets, price mechanisms, population dynamics, use in society and waste as well as recycling, into a whole world system. The degree of sustainability and resource time horizon was estimated using four different methods including (1) burn-off rates, (2) peak discovery early warning, (3) Hubbert's production model, and (4) COPPER, a system dynamics model. The ultimately recoverable reserves (URR) have been estimated using different sources that converge around 2800 million tonne, where about 800 million tonne have already been mined, and 2000 million tonne remain. The different methods independently suggest peak copper mine production in the near future. The model was run for a longer period to cover all systems dynamics and delays. The peak production estimates are in a narrow window in time, from 2031 to 2042, with the best model estimate in 2034, or 21 years from the date of writing. In a longer perspective, taking into account price and recycling, the supply of copper to society is estimated to run out sometime after 2400. The outputs from all models put focus on the importance of copper recycling so that society can become more sustainable with respect to copper supply.     

Steel all over the world: Estimating in-use stocks of iron for 200 countries

Industrialization and urbanization in the developing world have boosted steel demand during the recent two decades. Reliable estimates on how much steel is required for high economic development are necessary to better understand the future challenges for employment, resource management, capacity planning, and climate change mitigation within the steel sector. During their use phase, steel-containing products provide service to people, and the size of the in-use stock of steel can serve as an indicator of the total service level. We apply dynamic material flow analysis to estimate in-use stocks of steel in about 200 countries and identify patterns of how stocks evolve over time. Three different models of the steel cycle are applied and a full uncertainty analysis is conducted to obtain reliable stock estimates for the period 1700–2008.Per capita in-use stocks in countries with a long industrial history, e.g., the U.S, the UK, or Germany, are between 11 and 16 tons, and stock accumulation is slowing down or has come to a halt. Stocks in countries that industrialized rather recently, such as South Korea or Portugal, are between 6 and 10 tons per capita and grow fast. In several countries, per capita in-use stocks of steel have saturated or are close to saturation. We identify the range of saturation to be 13 ± 2 tons for the total per capita stock, which includes 10 ± 2 tons for construction, 1.3 ± 0.5 tons for machinery, 1.5 ± 0.7 tons for transportation, and 0.6 ± 0.2 tons for appliances and containers. The time series for the stocks and the saturation levels can be used to estimate future steel production and scrap supply.     

China's Minerals Future: 1985–2005

China has embarked on major economic and social changes to revitalize the Chinese economy, increase labor productivity, and improve the material standard of living of the Chinese people. This paper assumes that China will achieve its goal of a per capita income of US$800 in 2000, open-door policies will be maintained, and nonfuel mineral commodity consumption will increase as GDP per capita increases. Projections are made of production, trade and consumption of 14 nonfuel minerals for the period 1985–2005. China is projected to increase its net imports to these 14 minerals from about US$5000 million in 1985 to about US$12000 million in constant dollars in 2005. China's investment climate will become more favorable for those multinational companies that bring with them clear comparative advantages in minerals exploration, mining and processing technologies and marketing, and are prepared to develop in-depth Chinese expertise.