HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE TO PUMPING AND CONTAMINANT ADVECTION IN A FRACTURED ROCK ENVIRONMENT1

ABSTRACT: Ground water flow and supply at the Whiteshell Research Area (WRA) in southeastern Manitoba and the advective movement of contaminants from a hypothetical nuclear fuel waste disposal vault to the adjacent biosphere and a nearby ground water supply well are simulated using finite-element modeling and numerical particle-tracking technique. The hypothetical vault is located at a depth of 500 m, below the water table, in low-permeability plutonic rock of the Canadian Shield. The rock mass is intersected by high-permeability fracture zones (aquifers), which also act as conduits for vault contaminants to migrate to the ground surface. The ground water resource is, therefore, limited in quantity and quality and should be explored with care. A 30 m deep well, which pumps water at a rate of 120 m³/yr from a low-dipping fracture zone, LD1, reduces natural discharge from the system to augment natural recharge. At this pumping rate, a 100 m or 200 m deep well neither reduces discharge nor induces recharge into the system. Thus, at the WRA, a 30 m deep domestic water supply well best meets the water requirements of a one-person household at the rate of 120 m³/yr. The 100 m and 200 m wells best meet the requirements of a family of six and a family of six with light irrigation, respectively, without capturing contaminants’pathways from the vault to the ground surface. By virtue of the proximity of the 200 m well intake to the hypothetical vault, this well performs best as a purge well at pumping rates of 0,000 m³/yr and greater. Finite-element modeling is useful in evaluating the water supply potential of a fractured rock environment in which a nuclear waste disposal vault is proposed to be sited.     

A REEVALUATION OF THE GROUND WATER BUDGET FOR LAS VEGAS VALLEY,NEVADA, WITH EMPHASIS ON GROUND WATER DISCHARGE1

ABSTRACT: An essential component to the ground water budget for the Las Vegas Valley (LVV) in southern Nevada is discharge from the ground water system. Discharge for the LW has been based on estimates made more than 50 years ago of 35,524,224 m3 per year as evapotranspiration (ET) and 0 m³ per year as subsurface outflow. Newly published values for recharge based on a more robust data set (70,308,360 m³) indicate a large imbalance associated with the earlier discharge estimates, providing the basis for the reevaluation conducted in this study. ET estimates in this study, as opposed to previous studies, were assigned a range in values that included an approach that assigned higher weight to the unique soil, plant, water, and climatic conditions that existed in predevelopment (1905) LW. The earlier discharge estimates also assumed that the basin was hydrologically closed; however, based on our evaluation, a range in yearly discharge by subsurface outflow from 1,480,176 m³ to 19,735,680 m³ could be assigned. Likewise, a range in yearly ET from 20,475,768 m³ to 78,819,372 m³ could be assigned. Based on newly published recharge values, closure can only occur if higher values are assigned to both the subsurface outflow and/or ET components of ground water discharge. We cannot provide a complete water balance closure with our ground water discharge estimate of 64,140,960 m³. However our reevaluation gives support to the higher recharge estimates and provides the rationale for future studies to be conducted based on a more rigorous scientific assessment.     

SIMULATION OF REGIONAL GROUND WATER FLOW IN BEDROCK,SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK-NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents the results of steady-state three-dimensional computer simulations to determine the hydrogeologic setting of formation water in the hydrocarbon producing formations of southwestern New York and northwestern Pennsylvania. Recharge areas for the regional ground water flow systems in the study area are the Valley Heads Moraine and Allegheny uplands; discharge areas are Lakes Erie and Ontario to the north and the northern margin of the Appalachian basin to the south. Simulated ground water flow in all model layers moves north from the ground water divide on the Valley Heads Moraine towards Lake Erie at a rate from 10^?-⁶ to 10^?-³ ft/day. South of the divide intermediate-scale and local-scale flow systems occur in the upper 4000 feet of the stratigraphic section and the directions of ground water flow diverge towards major rivers and other topographically low areas.     

Discharge From the Edwards Aquifer Through the Leona River Floodplain,Uvalde, Texas1

Abstract: Analysis of results from an electrical resistivity survey, a magnetic survey, and an aquifer test performed on the Leona River floodplain in south‐central Texas indicates that ground‐water discharge from the Edwards Aquifer through the Leona River floodplain may be as great as 91.7 Mm³/year. When combined with an estimate of 8.8 Mm³/year for surface flow in the Leona River, as much as 100.5 Mm³/year could be discharged from the Edwards Aquifer through the Leona River floodplain. A value of 11,200 acre‐ft/year (13.82 Mm³/year) has been used as the calibration target in existing ground‐water models for total discharge from Leona Springs and the Leona River. Including ground water or underflow discharge would significantly increase the calibration target in future models. This refinement would improve the conceptualization of ground‐water flow in the western portion of the San Antonio segment of the Edwards Aquifer and would thereby allow for more accurate assessment and management of the ground‐water resources provided by the Edwards Aquifer.     

A Retrospective Look at the Water Resource Management Policies in Nassau County,Long Island,New York1

Abstract: The residents of Nassau County Long Island, New York receive all of their potable drinking water from the Upper Glacial, Jameco/Magothy (Magothy), North Shore, and Lloyd aquifers. As the population of Nassau County grew from 1930 to 1970, the demand on the ground‐water resources also grew. However, no one was looking at the potential impact of withdrawing up to 180 mgd (7.9 m³/s) by over 50 independent water purveyors. Some coastal community wells on the north and south shores of Nassau County were being impacted by saltwater intrusion. The New York State Legislature formed a commission to look into the water resources in 1972. The commission projected extensive population growth and a corresponding increase in pumping resulting in a projected 93.5 to 123 mgd (4.1 to 5.5 m³/s) deficit by 2000. In 1986, the New York Legislature passed legislation to strengthen the well permit program and also establish a moratorium on new withdrawals from the Lloyd aquifer to protect the coastal community’s only remaining supply of drinking water. Over 30 years has passed since the New York Legislature made these population and pumping projections and it is time to take a look at the accuracy of the projections that led to the moratorium. United States Census data shows that the population of Nassau County did not increase but decreased from 1970 to 2000. Records show that pumping in Nassau County was relatively stable fluctuating between 170 and 200 mgd (7.5 to 8.8 m³/s) from 1970 to 2004, well below the projection of 242 to 321 mgd (10.6 to 14.1 m³/s). Therefore, the population and water demand never grew to projected values and the projected threat to the coastal communities has diminished. With a stable population and water demand, its time to take a fresh look at proactive ground‐water resource management in Nassau County. One example of proactive ground‐water management that is being considered in New Jersey where conditions are similar uses a ground‐water flow model to balance ground water withdrawals, an interconnection model to match supply with demand using available interconnections, and a hydraulic model to balance flow in water mains. New Jersey also conducted an interconnection study to look into how systems with excess capacity could be used to balance withdrawals in stressed aquifer areas with withdrawals in unstressed areas. Using these proactive ground‐water management tools, ground‐water extraction could be balanced across Nassau County to mitigate potential impacts from saltwater intrusion and provide most water purveyors with a redundant supply that could be used during water emergencies.     

ANALYSIS OF POND SEEPAGE FOR APPLICATION IN FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE1

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this research was to examine through modeling and experimentation if seepage out of a pond through stratified soil can be predicted, and effectively collected and managed to augment streamflow during a low precipitation period extending three months or more. The 55 m² experimental pond with sandy/loamy banks was excavated to hardpan, and its bottom was approximately 0.7 above the water table. Output from a mathematical model containing both bottom and bank seepage elements agreed with experimental data, and showed that as compared to bottom seepage, the bank seepage contributed approximately 25 percent of the total seepage. Seepage collection (as measured from a circumscribing ditch) linearly varied with stage (r² < 0.99). There was an 8 to 22 percent over‐collection at the lower pond stages, and a 9 to 45 percent under‐collection at the highest stage. As an example of its utility, the model was applied to estimate the pond size and shape needed to supply a hypothetical stream and maintain fish stocks during a three‐month low‐precipitation period. Future work will focus on nutrient transport and removal.     

Evaluation of Ground‐Water and Surface‐Water Exchanges Using Streamflow Difference Analyses1

Abstract: In the karstic lower Flint River Basin, limestone fracturing, jointing, and subsequent dissolution have resulted in the development of extensive secondary permeability and created a system of major conduits that facilitate the exchange of water between the Upper Floridan aquifer and Flint River. Historical streamflow data from U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations located in Albany and Newton, Georgia, were used to quantify ground‐water and surface‐water exchanges within a 55.3 km section of the Flint River. Using data from 2001, we compared estimates of ground‐water flux using a time adjustment method to a water balance equation and found that these independent approaches yielded similar results. The associated error was relatively large during high streamflow when unsteady conditions prevail, but much lower during droughts. Flow reversals were identified by negative streamflow differences and verified with in situ data from temperature sensors placed inside large spring conduits. Long‐term (13 years) analysis showed negative streamflow differentials (i.e., a losing stream condition) coincided with high river stages and indicated that streamflow intrusion into the aquifer could potentially exceed 150 m³/s. Although frequent negative flow differentials were evident, the Flint River was typically a gaining stream and showed a large net increase in flow between the two gages when examined over the period 1989‐2003. Ground‐water contributions to this stream section averaged 2‐42 m³/s with a mean of 13 m³/s. The highest rate of ground‐water discharge to the Flint River occurred during the spring when regional ground‐water levels peaked following heavy winter and spring rains and corresponding rates of evapotranspiration were low. During periods of extreme drought, ground‐water contributions to the Flint River declined.     

COALBED METHANE PRODUCT WATER CHEMISTRY IN THREE WYOMING WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: The Powder River Basin in Wyoming has become one of the most active areas of coalbed methane (CBM) development in the western United States. Extraction of methane from coalbeds requires pumping of aquifer water, which is called product water. Two to ten extraction wells are manifolded into one discharge point and product water is released into nearby unlined holding ponds. The objective of this study was to evaluate the chemistry, salinity, and sodicity of CBM product water at discharge points and associated holding ponds as a function of watershed. The product water samples from the discharge points and associated holding ponds were collected from the Cheyenne River (CHR), Belle Fourche River (BFR), and Little Powder River (LPR) watersheds during the summers of 1999 and 2000. These samples were analyzed for pH, electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solids (TDS), alkalinity, sodium (Na), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg), potassium (K), sulfate (SO₄^2‐), and chloride (C^1‐). From the chemical data, practical sodium adsorption ratio (SARp) and true sodium adsorption ratio (SARt) were calculated for the CBM discharge water and pond water. The pH, EC, TDS, alkalinity, Na, Ca, Mg, K, SARp, and SARt of CBM discharge water increased significantly moving north from the CHR watershed to the LPR watershed. CBM discharge water in associated holding ponds showed significant increases in EC, TDS, alkalinity, Na, K, SARp, and SARt moving north from the CHR to the LPR watershed. Within watersheds, the only significant change was an increase in pH from 7.21 to 8.26 between discharge points and holding ponds in the LPR watershed. However, the LPR and BFR exhibited larger changes in mean chemistry values in pH, salinity (EC, TDS), and sodicity (SAR) between CBM product water discharges and associated holding ponds than the CHR watershed. For instance, the mean EC and TDS of CBM product water in LPR increased from 1.93 to 2.09 dS/m, and froml,232 to 1,336 mg/L, respectively, between discharge and pond waters. The CHR exhibited no change in EC, TDS, Na, or SAR between discharge water and pond water. Also, while not statistically significant, mean alkalinity of CBM product water in BFR and LPR watersheds decreased from 9.81 to 8.01 meq/L and from 19.87 to 18.14 meq/L, respectively, between discharge and pond waters. The results of this study suggest that release of CBM product water onto the rangelands of BFR and LPR watersheds may precipitate calcium carbonate (CaCO₃) in soils, which in turn may decrease infiltration and increase runoff and erosion. Thus, use of CBM product water for irrigation in LPR and BFR watersheds may require careful planning based on water pH, EC, alkalinity, Na, and SAR, as well as local soil physical and chemical properties.     

The Role of Ground Water in Generating Streamflow in Headwater Areas and in Maintaining Base Flow1

Abstract: The volume and sustainability of streamflow from headwaters to downstream reaches commonly depend on contributions from ground water. Streams that begin in extensive aquifers generally have a stable point of origin and substantial discharge in their headwaters. In contrast, streams that begin as discharge from rocks or sediments having low permeability have a point of origin that moves up and down the channel seasonally, have small incipient discharge, and commonly go dry. Nearly all streams need to have some contribution from ground water in order to provide reliable habitat for aquatic organisms. Natural processes and human activities can have a substantial effect on the flow of streams between their headwaters and downstream reaches. Streams lose water to ground water when and where their head is higher than the contiguous water table. Although very common in arid regions, loss of stream water to ground water also is relatively common in humid regions. Evaporation, as well as transpiration from riparian vegetation, causing ground‐water levels to decline also can cause loss of stream water. Human withdrawal of ground water commonly causes streamflow to decline, and in some regions has caused streams to cease flowing.     

SUBSURFACE RETURN FLOW AND GROUND WATER RECHARGE OF TERRACE FIELDS IN NORTHERN TAIWAN1

ABSTRACT: This study estimates subsurface return flow and effective ground water recharge in terraced fields in northern Taiwan. Specifically, a three dimensional model, FEMWATER, was applied to simulate percolation and lateral seepage in the terraced fields under various conditions. In the terraced paddy fields, percolation mainly moves vertically downward in the central area, while lateral seepage is mainly focused around the bund. Although the simulated lateral seepage rate through the bund exceeded the percolation rate in the central area of the paddy field, annual subsurface return flow at Pei‐Chi and Shin‐Men was 0.17 × 10⁶ m³ and 0.37 × 10⁶ m³, representing only 0.17 percent and 0.21 percent of the total irrigation water required for rice growth at Pei‐Chi and Shin‐Men, respectively. For upland fields, the effective ground water recharge rate during the second crop period (July to November) exceeded that during the first crop period (January to May) because of the wet season in the second crop period. Terraced paddy fields have the most efficient ground water recharge, with 21.2 to 23.4 percent of irrigation water recharging to ground water, whereas upland fields with a plow layer have the least efficient ground water recharge, with only 4.8 to 6.6 percent of irrigation water recharging to ground water. The simulation results clearly revealed that a substantial amount of irrigation water recharges to ground water in the terraced paddy, while only a small amount of subsurface return flow seeps from the upstream to the downstream terraced paddy. The amounts of subsurface flow and ground water recharge determined in the study are useful for the irrigation water planning and management and provide a scientific basis to reevaluate water resources management in the terrace region under irrigated rice.     

Hydrologic Controls on Nitrogen and Phosphorous Dynamics in Relict Oxbow Wetlands Adjacent to an Urban Restored Stream

Although wetlands are known to be sinks for nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), their function in urban watersheds remains unclear. We analyzed water and nitrate (NO₃^?) and phosphate (PO₄^3?) dynamics during precipitation events in two oxbow wetlands that were created during geomorphic stream restoration in Baltimore County, Maryland that varied in the nature and extent of connectivity to the adjacent stream. Oxbow 1 (Ox1) received 1.6‐4.2% and Oxbow 2 (Ox2) received 4.2‐7.4% of cumulative streamflow during storm events from subsurface seepage (Ox1) and surface flow (Ox2). The retention time of incoming stormwater ranged from 0.2 to 6.7 days in Ox1 and 1.8 to 4.3 days in Ox2. Retention rates in the wetlands ranged from 0.25 to 2.74 g N/m²/day in Ox1 and 0.29 to 1.94 g N/m²/day in Ox2. Percent retention of the NO₃^?‐N load that entered the wetlands during the storm events ranged from 64 to 87% and 23 to 26%, in Ox1 and Ox2, respectively. During all four storm events, Ox1 and Ox2 were a small net source of dissolved PO₄^3? to the adjacent stream (i.e., more P exited than entered the wetland), releasing P at a rate of 0.23‐20.83 mg P/m²/day and 3.43‐24.84 mg P/m²/day, respectively. N and P removal efficiency of the oxbows were regulated by hydrologic connectivity, hydraulic loading, and retention time. Incidental oxbow wetlands have potential to receive urban stream and storm flow and to be significant N sinks, but they may be sources of P in urban watersheds.     

EDWARDS AQUIFER EVALUATION: KINNEY COUNTY,TEXAS1

ABSTRACT: The Edwards Aquifer is one of the most studied and most prolific aquifers in the United States. The aquifer is a heavily fractured and faulted carbonate aquifer with transmissivities in excess of 100 ft²/s. The City of San Antonio relies upon the Edwards Aquifer as its sole source for water. Much work has been done on quantifying recharge to the aquifer and discharge from wells and acquiring aquifer characteristics from pumping tests, specific capacity tests, and geophysical logs. Although the aquifer has been well studied in Bexar County, much less is known about the Edwards Aquifer in Kinney County. This is partly due to the lower population within the county (approximately 3,500 people) relative to the eastern counties (Uvalde, Medina, Bexar, Comal, and Hays) and the great distance of Kinney County from high profile discharge areas such as the City of San Antonio and Comal and San Marcos Springs. Three key products resulted from this study: (1) exploratory well drilling and the largest aquifer test in the county that were conducted to evaluate the well yields within a 10,000 acre study area in which a drawdown of 2.5 ft approximately 1.2 miles away was observed while pumping at approximately 4,600 gpm; (2) a recharge estimate for the Edwards Aquifer within Kinney County of approximately 71,382 ac‐ft/yr; and (3) locating the Brackettville Groundwater Divide from an evaluation of ground water flow direction and hydrograph analysis. These results help evaluate the complex hydraulics occurring within Kinney County and aid in development of ground water modeling that will be used in managing the Edwards Aquifer.     

REUSE OF POWER PLANT COOLING WATER FOR IRRIGATION1

ABSTRACT: Current water quality policies in California require disposal of saline blowdown waters from power plants in sealed evaporation ponds to avoid degradation of ground waters. This policy highlights the conflict between increased energy demands, increasing scarcity of water, and environmental priorities. Saline blowdown waters can be used for the irrigation of salt tolerant crops, albeit with some reduction in yields. The results of experiments intended to specify these yield reductions are reported. If such irrigation is carefully managed, the soil profile can be used to store residual salts and ground water degradation will be avoided, provided that irrigation ceases before the salts are leached to the ground water. An analysis of discharge below a carefully managed irrigation project shows that the downward movement of salts below the root zone is no worse than with conventional methods of disposal. Thus, irrigation reuse with blowdown water is shown to be a viable means of saline water disposal while maintaining existing standards of ground water quality protection. Further analysis demonstrates the economic feasibility of such irrigation reuse by showing that it is significantly less costly than the evaporation pond alternative.     

GROUND WATER SEEPAGE IN LAKE WASHINGTON AND THE UPPER ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN,FLORIDA1

Direct ground water seepage measurements were made in Lake Washington, Florida, to determine the importance of seepage as a water and chloride source to the lake and upper St. Johns River. Over 200 seepage measurements were made in the lake and adjoining canals from July through December 1978. Results indicated that seepage into the shore areas of Lake Washington was an insignificant water source to the lake, representing 0.6 percent of the inputs, and was nearly balanced by ground water recharge in the midlake region. Drainage canals entering Lake Washington, however, exhibited high average seepage rates (17.7 L/m²-day), over eight times the lake average (2.01 L/M²-day). Discharge from the St. Johns River was the dominant factor in the water budget of Lake Washington and represented approximately 88 percent of the inputs during the study year. Although inputs from the drainage canals represented only 6.6 percent of the St. Johns River annual discharge, these canals represented 20.4 percent of the annual St. Johns River chloride loading and 62.1 percent of the river chloride loading during the five driest months of 1978. Evidence from this study indicates that rising levels of chloride in the river in recent years are largely attributable to ground water seepage in channelized areas, particularly in the headwaters. These chloride inputs assume greater importance during low water/low flow periods.     

The South‐to‐North Water Transfer Project of China: Environmental Implications and Monitoring Strategy1

Abstract: In 2002, China launched the South‐to‐North Water Transfer Project after completing a 50‐year feasibility study. By 2050, the three‐route (i.e., East, Middle, and West) project will be capable of transferring 44.8 billion m³/year of water from the water rich Yangtze River to the arid north to alleviate water shortage and help secure a balanced social and economic development across the nation. However, diversion of such a large quantity of water could profoundly change the riverine environment of the upper Yellow River and the lower reach of the Han River, a tributary of the Yangtze River and the water supplying area of the project’s Middle Route, because of changes in the annual discharge. Secondary salinization seems inevitable in the water receiving areas of the North China Plain, and decrease in the discharge of the Yangtze River will result in seawater intrusion into the Yangtze Delta. This paper describes the project and discusses its environmental implications. Additionally, a long‐term monitoring strategy under the umbrella of the Chinese Ecological Research Network is proposed for environmental monitoring.     

AQUIFER SALINIZATION IN THE YUN‐LIN COASTAL AREA,TAIWAN1

ABSTRACT: This study analyzes possible causes of shallow ground water salinization in the coastal area of Yun‐Lin. The local hydro‐geologic setting is determined from geological drilling data and sea floor topography. Three possible causes (sea water intrusion, salt water percolation through wells, and infiltration of salty water from fish ponds) are evaluated. Chloride concentration is used as an index to measure ground water salinization. Sea water intrusion is modeled by the advective/dispersive equation, and salt water infiltration from wells and fish ponds is calculated by estimating the amount of water percolated. The determined local hydrogeologic setting suggests that the shallow aquifer may be connected to the sea water, resulting in salt water intrusion as a large amount of shallow ground water is withdrawn. The percent contributions of sea water intrusion, percolation through wells, and infiltration of water from fish ponds, to the salinization of the shallow aquifer at Ko‐Hu in the Yun‐Lin coastal area are approximately 27 percent, less than 1 percent and 73 percent, respectively. The results suggest that the vertical infiltration of salt water from fish ponds is the major cause of shallow ground water salinization in the coastal area of Yun‐Lin.     

Predicting Sustainable Ground Water to Constructed Riparian Wetlands: Shaker Trace,Ohio, USA

Water isotopy is introduced as a tool to design, locate, and select storm water best management practices for the prediction of sustained ground water inflows to prospective constructed wetlands. A primer and application of the stable isotopes, ¹⁸O and ²H, are discussed for riparian wetland restoration areas among an agricultural landscape in southwestern Ohio. Conventional piezometric measurements were ambiguous in identifying groundwater mounding across a transect which includes numerous agricultural tile drains. Instead evaporative potential data represented by δ¹⁸O values indicated a well delineated zone for prospective constructed wetlands. All successful constructed wetland areas thus far at Shaker Trace are represented by ground water with depleted δ¹⁸O values below −9.0‰ VSMOW. Such areas of sustainable ground water inflow could either be due to perched units at depth or simply the result of an increased flow gradient.     

Nitrogen Sources and Sinks Within the Middle Rio Grande,New Mexico1

Abstract: Relationships between discharge, land use, and nitrogen sources and sinks were developed using 5 years of synoptic sampling along a 300 km reach of the Rio Grande in central New Mexico. Average river discharge was higher during 2001 and 2005 “wet years” (15 m³/s) than during the drought years of 2002‐04 “dry years” (8.9 m³/s), but there were no differences in nitrogen loading from wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) which were the largest and most consistent source of nitrogen to the river (1,330 kg/day). Average total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) concentrations remained elevated for 180 km downstream of the Albuquerque WWTP averaging 1.2 mg/l in wet years and 0.52 mg/l in dry years. Possible explanations for the constant elevated TDN concentrations downstream of the major point source include reduced nitrogen retention capacity, minimal contact with riparian or channel vegetation, large suspended sediment loads, and low algal biomass. Somewhat surprisingly, agricultural return flows had lower average nitrogen concentrations than river water originally diverted to agriculture in both wet (0.81 mg/l) and dry years (0.19 mg/l), indicating that the agricultural system is a sink for nitrogen. Lower average nitrogen concentrations in the river during the dry years can be explained by the input of agricultural returns which comprise the majority of river flow in dry years.     

GROUND WATER/SURFACE WATER RESPONSES TO GLOBAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS,SANTA CLARA‐CALLEGUAS BASIN,VENTURA, CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: Climate variations can play an important, if not always crucial, role in successful conjunctive management of ground water and surface water resources. This will require accurate accounting of the links between variations in climate, recharge, and withdrawal from the resource systems, accurate projection or predictions of the climate variations, and accurate simulation of the responses of the resource systems. To assess linkages and predictability of climate influences on conjunctive management, global climate model (GCM) simulated precipitation rates were used to estimate inflows and outflows from a regional ground water model (RGWM) of the coastal aquifers of the Santa Clara‐Calleguas Basin at Ventura, California, for 1950 to 1993. Interannual to interdecadal time scales of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) climate variations are imparted to simulated precipitation variations in the Southern California area and are realistically imparted to the simulated ground water level variations through the climate‐driven recharge (and discharge) variations. For example, the simulated average ground water level response at a key observation well in the basin to ENSO variations of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures is 1.2 m/°C, compared to 0.9 m/°C in observations. This close agreement shows that the GCM‐RGWM combination can translate global scale climate variations into realistic local ground water responses. Probability distributions of simulated ground water level excursions above a local water level threshold for potential seawater intrusion compare well to the corresponding distributions from observations and historical RGWM simulations, demonstrating the combination's potential usefulness for water management and planning. Thus the GCM‐RGWM combination could be used for planning purposes and — when the GCM forecast skills are adequate — for near term predictions.     

IDENTIFYING DISCHARGE ZONES OF ARSENIC IN THE GOOSE RIVER BASIN,MAINE1

ABSTRACT: Water balance modeling and the analysis of stable water isotopes in ground water were conducted to aid the location of ground water discharge areas within the Goose River basin, in mid‐coastal Maine. Previous investigations of drinking water from wells in the fractured crystalline bedrock encountered persistent elevated total arsenic. Such contamination may be related to discharging ground water from fractured zones in the basin. Modeled discharge rates greater than +10 cm/yr and ¹⁸O values lighter than‐9.5 per mil VSMOW may indicate recent recharge is mixing with deeper ground water and is focused along some fractured zones in arsenic bearing crystalline rocks.