Long-Term Relationships Between Ocean Variability and Water Resources in Northeastern Utah1

Tingstad, Abbie H. and Glen M. MacDonald, 2010. Long-Term Relationships Between Ocean Variability and Water Resources in Northeastern Utah. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(5):987-1002. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00471.x Abstract: The Uinta Mountains in the northwestern Colorado River Basin are an important source of water for Utah and the western United States. This article examines 20th Century hydrology in the Uinta Mountains region in the context of the previous four to eight centuries as well as possible relationships with Pacific and Atlantic Ocean variability using new tree-ring based reconstructions for streamflow and snowpack. The 20th Century appears to have been unusually wet compared with previous centuries. Relationships between hydrology in the region and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) are largely insignificant in instrumental datasets but may have been stronger, although inconsistent, over the longer time spans represented by the paleoclimate records. Impacts of individual modes of sea surface temperature variability may sometimes be enhanced by periods when climate forcing by ENSO, PDO, and/or AMO coincide. Such episodes are associated with deviations from mean hydrology as high as +14% and as low as −18%. The 20th Century could be a misleading benchmark to base water resource estimates upon and flexible water management strategies are necessary to take into account the large range of natural variability observed in the longer-term hydroclimatology as well as the challenges to predictability due to the apparently complex and inconsistent influence of ocean-driven variability.     

TREE RING RECONSTRUCTIONS OF STREAMFLOW FOR THREE CANADIAN PRAIRIE RIVERS1

ABSTRACT: Information regarding long term hydrological variability is critical for the effective management of surface water resources. In the Canadian Prairie region, growing dependence on major river systems for irrigation and other consumptive uses has resulted in an increasing vulnerability to hydrological drought and growing interprovincial tension. This study presents the first dendrochronological records of streamflow for Canadian Prairie rivers. We present 1,113‐year, 522‐year, and 325‐year reconstructions of total water year (October to September) streamflow for the North Saskatchewan, South Saskatchewan, and Saskatchewan Rivers, respectively. The reconstructions indicate relatively high flows during the 20th Century and provide evidence of past prolonged droughts. Low flows during the 1840s correspond with aridity that extended over much of the western United States. Similarly, an exceptional period of prolonged low flow conditions, approximately 900 A.D. to 1300 A.D., is coincident with evidence of sustained drought across central and western North America. The 16th Century megadrought of the western United States and Mexico, however, does not appear to have had a major impact on the Canadian rivers. The dendrohydrological records illustrate the risks involved if future water policy and infrastructure development in the Canadian Prairies are based solely on records of streamflow variability over the historical record.     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: As part of the National Assessment of Climate Change, the implications of future climate predictions derived from four global climate models (GCMs) were used to evaluate possible future changes to Pacific Northwest climate, the surface water response of the Columbia River basin, and the ability of the Columbia River reservoir system to meet regional water resources objectives. Two representative GCM simulations from the Hadley Centre (HC) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) were selected from a group of GCM simulations made available via the National Assessment for climate change. From these simulations, quasi-stationary, decadal mean temperature and precipitation changes were used to perturb historical records of precipitation and temperature data to create inferred conditions for 2025, 2045, and 2095. These perturbed records, which represent future climate in the experiments, were used to drive a macro-scale hydrology model of the Columbia River at 1/8 degree resolution. The altered streamflows simulated for each scenario were, in turn, used to drive a reservoir model, from which the ability of the system to meet water resources objectives was determined relative to a simulated hydrologic base case (current climate). Although the two GCM simulations showed somewhat different seasonal patterns for temperature change, in general the simulations show reasonably consistent basin average increases in temperature of about 1.8–2.1°C for 2025, and about 2.3–2.9°C for 2045. The HC simulations predict an annual average temperature increase of about 4.5°C for 2095. Changes in basin averaged winter precipitation range from -1 percent to + 20 percent for the HC and MPI scenarios, and summer precipitation is also variously affected. These changes in climate result in significant increases in winter runoff volumes due to increased winter precipitation and warmer winter temperatures, with resulting reductions in snowpack. Average March 1 basin average snow water equivalents are 75 to 85 percent of the base case for 2025, and 55 to 65 percent of the base case by 2045. By 2045 the reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt, coupled with higher evapotranspiration in early summer, would lead to earlier spring peak flows and reduced runoff volumes from April-September ranging from about 75 percent to 90 percent of the base case. Annual runoff volumes range from 85 percent to 110 percent of the base case in the simulations for 2045. These changes in streamflow create increased competition for water during the spring, summer, and early fall between non-firm energy production, irrigation, instream flow, and recreation. Flood control effectiveness is moderately reduced for most of the scenarios examined, and desirable navigation conditions on the Snake are generally enhanced or unchanged. Current levels of winter-dominated firm energy production are only significantly impacted for the MPI 2045 simulations.     

PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGIONAL ASSESSMENT: THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE WATER RESOURCES OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Pacific Northwest (PNW) regional assessment is an integrated examination of the consequences of natural climate variability and projected future climate change for the natural and human systems of the region. The assessment currently focuses on four sectors: hydrology/water resources, forests and forestry, aquatic ecosystems, and coastal activities. The assessment begins by identifying and elucidating the natural patterns of climate vanability in the PNW on interannual to decadal timescales. The pathways through which these climate variations are manifested and the resultant impacts on the natural and human systems of the region are investigated. Knowledge of these pathways allows an analysis of the potential impacts of future climate change, as defined by IPCC climate change scenarios. In this paper, we examine the sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability of hydrology and water resources to climate variability and change. We focus on the Columbia River Basin, which covers approximately 75 percent of the PNW and is the basis for the dominant water resources system of the PNW. The water resources system of the Columbia River is sensitive to climate variability, especially with respect to drought. Management inertia and the lack of a centralized authority coordinating all uses of the resource impede adaptability to drought and optimization of water distribution. Climate change projections suggest exacerbated conditions of conflict between users as a result of low summertime streamfiow conditions. An understanding of the patterns and consequences of regional climate variability is crucial to developing an adequate response to future changes in climate.     

A TREE-RING RECONSTRUCTION OF DROUGHT IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: Indices of annual diameter growth of trees were used to reconstruct drought in southern California back to A.D. 1700. A regional Palmer Drought Index served as predictand and tree-ring indices from eight sites as predictors in multiple linear regression analyses that yielded the prediction (reconstruction) equations. The regression explained 69 percent of the variance in Palmer Index in the period of calibration. The long-term reconstruction indicated that drought was rare in the first half of the current century relative to other discrete 50-year periods, and that based on evidence to date the last half of the 20th century may well turn out to be the most drought prone since A.D. 1700 in southern California.     

DROUGHT,TREE RINGS,AND RESERVOIR DESIGN1

Droughts constitute one of the most important factors affecting the design and operation of water resources infrastructure. Hydrologists ascertain their duration, severity, and pattern of recurrence from instrumental records of precipitation or stream‐flow. Under suitable conditions, and with proper analysis, tree rings obtained from long living, climate sensitive species of trees can extend instrumental records of streamflow and precipitation over periods spanning several centuries. Those tree‐ring “reconstructions” provide a valuable insight about climate variability and drought occurrence in the Holocene, and yield long term hydrological data useful in the design of water infrastructure. This work presents a derivation of drought risk based on a renewal model of drought recurrence, a brief review of the basic theory of tree‐ring reconstructions, and a stochastic model for optimizing the design of water supply reservoirs. Examples illustrate the methodology developed in this work and the supporting role that tree‐ring reconstructed streamflow can play in characterizing hydrologic variability.     

NEW ENGLAND DROUGHT AND RELATIONS WITH LARGE SCALE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS1

ABSTRACT: To provide a basis for regional hydroclimatic forecasting, New England (NE) precipitation and streamflow are compared with indices for the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Significant positive correlations are found between the NAO index and monthly streamflow at western inland locations, with the strongest seasonal correlations occurring in winter. Smoothed records for the winter NAO and winter streamflow are highly correlated at some sites, suggesting that interrelationships are most significant in the low frequency spectrum. However, correlations between the NAO and precipitation are not significant, so further examination of other factors is needed to explain the relationship between the NAO and streamflow. NAO related regional air temperature, sea surface temperature (SST), storm tracking, and snowfall variability are possible mechanisms for the observed teleconnection. Exceptionally cool regional air temperatures, and SSTs, and unique regional storm track patterns characterized NE's climate during the famous 1960s drought, suggesting that concurrent (persistent) negative NAO conditions may have contributed to the severity of that event. Monthly and winter averaged regional streamflow variability are also significantly correlated with the PNA index. This, along with results from previous studies, suggests that tropospheric wave character and associated North Pacific SST anomalies are also related to NE regional drought conditions.     

VARIATION IN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SNOWMELT RUNOFF IN OREGON AND ENSO AND PDO1

ABSTRACT: The value of using climate indices such as ENSO or PDO in water resources predictions is dependent on understanding the local relationship between these indices and streamflow over time. This study identifies long term seasonal and spatial variations in the strength of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) correlations with timing and magnitude of discharge in snowmelt streams in Oregon. ENSO is best correlated with variability in annual discharge, and PDO is best correlated with spring snowmelt timing and magnitude and timing of annual floods. Streams in the Cascades and Wallowa mountains show the strongest correlations, while the southernmost stream is not correlated with ENSO or PDO. ENSO correlations are weaker from 1920 to 1950 and vary significantly depending on whether Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) or Niño 3.4 is used. PDO correlations are strong from 1920 to 1950 and weak or insignificant other years. Although there are not consistent increasing or decreasing trends in annual discharge or spring snowmelt timing, there are significant increases in fractional winter runoff that are independent of precipitation, PDO, or ENSO and may indicate monotonic winter warming.     

TREE‐RING BASED RECONSTRUCTIONS OF INTERANNUAL TO DECADAL SCALE PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY FOR NORTHEASTERN UTAH SINCE 1226 A.D.1

ABSTRACT: Samples from 107 piñon pines (Pinns edulis) at four sites were used to develop a proxy record of annual (June to June) precipitation spanning the 1226 to 2001 AD interval for the Uinta Basin Watershed of northeastern Utah. The reconstruction reveals significant precipitation variability at interannual to decadal scales. Single‐year dry events before the instrumental period tended to be more severe than those after 1900. In general, decadal scale dry events were longer and more severe prior to 1900. In particular, dry events in the late 13th, 16th, and 18th Centuries surpass the magnitude and duration of droughts seen in the Uinta Basin after 1900. The last four decades of the 20th Century also represent one of the wettest periods in the reconstruction. The proxy record indicates that the instrumental record (approximately 1900 to the Present) underestimates the potential frequency and severity of severe, sustained droughts in this area, while over representing the prominence of wet episodes. In the longer record, the empirical probability of any decadal scale drought exceeding the duration of the 1954 through 1964 drought is 94 percent, while the probability for any wet event exceeding the duration of the 1965 through 1999 wet spell is only 1 percent. Hence, estimates of future water availability in the Uinta Basin and forecasts for exports to the Colorado River, based on the 1961 to 1990 and 1971 to 2000 “normal” periods, may be overly optimistic.     

Millennial‐Length Records of Streamflow From Three Major Upper Colorado River Tributaries1

Gray, Stephen T., Jeffrey J. Lukas, and Connie A. Woodhouse, 2011. Millennial‐Length Records of Streamflow From Three Major Upper Colorado River Tributaries. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):702‐712. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00535.x Abstract: Drought, climate change, and shifting consumptive use are prompting a widespread reassessment of water availability in the Upper Colorado River basin. Here, we present millennial‐length records of water year (October‐September) streamflow for key Upper Colorado tributaries: the White, Yampa, and Little Snake Rivers. Based on tree rings, these records represent the first paleohydrological reconstructions from these subbasins to overlap with a series of Medieval droughts (∼ad 800 to 1300). The reconstructions show marked interannual variability imbedded in nonstationary behavior over decadal to multidecadal time scales. These reconstructions suggest that, even in a millennial context, gaged flows from a handful of years (e.g., 1977 and 2002) were extremely dry. However, droughts of much greater duration and magnitude than any in the instrumental record were regular features prior to 1900. Likewise these reconstructions point to the unusual wetness of the gage period, and the potential for recent observations to paint an overly optimistic picture of regional water supplies. The future of the Upper Colorado River will be determined by a combination of inherent hydroclimatic variability and a broad range of human‐induced changes. It is then essential that regional water managers, water users, and policy makers alike consider a broader range of hydroclimatic scenarios than is offered by the gage record alone.     

CENTER PIVOT IRRIGATION IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON: DYNAMICS AND IMPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: As of 1976 over 225,000 acres were being irrigated by center pivot units in a five-county area of the Columbia Basin in Oregon and Washington. Most of the development took place since 1970. Dynamic application of center pivot technology altered the concept of irrigability in the study area, converting lands that were often rolling, sandy, and plagued by wind erosion from low grade grazing to productive irrigated units. This development was entirely by private enterprise, with large corporate farms accounting for much of the effort. Little prior comprehensive planning or coordination took place. When the circulation of water is altered on such a massive scale, however, unplanned impacts may be far reaching. In this case they include:1) acceleration of the shift to high cost thermoelectric generation, 2) alteration of state institutions designed to allocate water, and 3) possible significant alterations of the socioeconomic fabric of small rural service centers.     

EXTENSION OF RIVER FLOW RECORDS IN ARGENTINA FROM LONG TREE-RING CHRONOLOGIES1

ABSTRACT: Tree-ring chronologies were derived from two coniferous species growing in the foothills of the Patagonian Andes of Argentina, using crossdating and standardization techniques developed by the Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research. Seven of these chronologies were selected, along with data from two long reliable gaging stations to reconstruct annual stream-flow for two major rivers extending back to the year 1601. Calibration between tree-ring and river flow data was established using the multivariate technique of canonical analysis. Correlations of 0.73 were obtained between gaged and reconstructed flow for both rivers. These Andean conifers contain good climatic and hydrological information and tree-ring chronology and calibration techniques are capable of extracting much of this information.     

Reconstructed Streamflows for the Headwaters of the Wind River,Wyoming, United States1

Abstract: Tree rings offer a means to extend observational records of streamflow by hundreds of years, but dendrohydrological techniques are not regularly applied to small tributary and headwaters gages. Here we explore the potential for extending three such gage records on small streams in the Wind River drainage of central Wyoming, United States. Using core samples taken from Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), piñon pine (Pinus edulis), and limber pine (Pinus flexilis) at 38 sites, we were able to reconstruct streamflows for the headwaters of the Wind River back to 1672 AD or earlier. The streamflow reconstructions for Bull Lake Creek above Bull Lake; the Little Popo Agie River near Lander, Wyoming; and Wind River near Dubois, Wyoming explained between 40% and 64% of the observed variance, and these extended records performed well in a variety of statistical verification tests. The full reconstructions show pronounced inter‐annual variability in streamflow, and these proxy records also point to the prevalence of severe, sustained droughts in this region. These reconstructions indicate that the 20th Century was relatively wet compared to previous centuries, and actual gage records may capture only a limited subset of potential natural variability in this area. Further analyses reveal how tree‐ring based reconstructions for small tributary and headwaters gages can be strongly influenced by the length and quality of calibration records, but this work also demonstrates how the use of a spatially extensive network of tree‐ring sites can improve the quality of these types of reconstructions.     

CLIMATE SCIENCE AND DROUGHT PLANNING: THE ARIZONA EXPERIENCE1

ABSTRACT: In response to recent severe drought conditions throughout the state, Arizona recently developed its first drought plan. The Governor's Drought Task Force focused on limiting the economic and social impacts of future droughts through enhanced adaptation and mitigation efforts. The plan was designed to maximize the use of new, scientific breakthroughs in climate monitoring and prediction and in vulnerability assessment. The long term objective of the monitoring system is to allow for evaluation of conditions in multiple sectors and at multiple scales. Stakeholder engagement and decision support are key objectives in reducing Arizona's vulnerability in light of the potential for severe, sustained drought. The drivers of drought conditions in Arizona include the El Nino‐Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.     

THE TREE-RING RECORD OF SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT1

ABSTRACT: Frequent and persistent droughts exacerbate the problems caused by the inherent scarcity of water in the semiarid to arid parts of the southwestern United States. The occurrence of drought is driven by climatic variability, which for years before about the beginning of the 20th century in the Southwest must be inferred from proxy records. As part of a multidisciplinary study of the potential hydrologic impact of severe sustained drought on the Colorado River, the physical basis and limitations of tree rings as indicators of severe sustained drought are reviewed, and tree-ring data are analyzed to delineate a “worst-case” drought scenario for the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Runs analysis of a 121-site tree-ring network, 1600–1962, identifies a four-year drought in the 1660s as the longest-duration large-scale drought in the Southwest in the recent tree-ring record. Longer tree-ring records suggest a much longer and more severe drought in 1579–1598. The regression estimate of the mean annual Colorado River flow for this period is 10.95 million acre-feet, or 81 percent of the long-term mean. The estimated flows for the 1500s should be used with caution in impact studies because sample size is small and some reconstructed values are extrapolations.     

MANAGING THE COLORADO RIVER IN A SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT AN EVALUATION OF INSTITUTIONAL OPTIONS1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents a summary of the findings and recommendations of the studies of severe, sustained drought reported in this special issue. The management facilities and institutions were found to be effective in protecting consumptive water users against drought, but much less effective in protecting nonconsumptive uses. Changes in intrastate water management were found to be effective in reducing the monetary value of damages, through reallocating shortages to low-valued uses, while only water banking and water marketing, among the possible interstate rule changes, were similarly effective. Players representing the basin states and the federal government in three gaming experiments were unable to agree upon and effect major changes in operating rules. The conclusions are (1) that nonconsumptive water uses are highly vulnerable to drought, (2) that consumptive uses are well-protected, (3) that drought risk is greatest in the Upper Basin, (4) that the Lower Basin suffers from chronic water shortage but bears little drought risk, (5) that opportunities exist for win-win rule changes, (6) that such rule changes are extremely difficult to make, and (7) that intrastate drought management is very effective ^m in reducing potential damages.     

HISTORICAL AND ESTIMATED GROUND WATER LEVELS NEAR WINNIPEG,CANADA, AND THEIR SENSITIVITY TO CLIMATIC VARIABILITY1

ABSTRACT: Long term well hydrographs and estimated ground water levels derived from hydroclimatic and biological data were used to evaluate trends within the Upper Carbonate Aquifer (UCA) near Winnipeg, Canada, during the 20th Century. Ground water records from instruments have been kept since the early 1960s and are derived from piezometers in the overlying sediments and in open boreholes in the UCA. Some boreholes extend into an underlying Paleozoic carbonate sequence. Shallow well hydrographs show no obvious long term trends but do exhibit variations on the order of three to four years that are correlated with changes in annual temperature and precipitation at lags up to 24 months. Trends observed in deeper wells appear to be largely related to ground water usage patterns and show little correlation with climate over the past 35 years. Stepwise multiple regression modeled average annual hydraulic head in the shallow wells as a function of regional temperature, precipitation, and tree ring variables. Estimated hydraulic heads had a slightly greater range prior to the 1960s, most prominently during an interval of lowered ground water levels between 1930 and 1942. Regression results demonstrate that moisture sensitive tree ring data are viable predictors of past ground water levels and may be useful for studies of aquifers in regions that lack long, high quality precipitation records.     

WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT AND DROUGHT FORECASTS IN SOUTH CAROLINA1

ABSTRACT: Despite potential benefits for resource planning, community water systems managers have not used seasonal climate forecasts extensively. Obstacles to forecast use include a lack of awareness of their existence, distrust of their accuracy, perceived irrelevance to management decisions, and competition from other technological innovations. In this paper, ways in which seasonal forecasts might be extended to address more directly some concerns of South Carolina community water systems managers are explored. From May 1998 through August 2002, this group experienced drought conditions that threatened water quality and supply and required restrictions on water consumption. Methods for incorporating long lead forecasts with joint probabilities of monthly temperature and precipitation to produce drought forecasts are demonstrated. When tailored to specific places, such forecasts show the likelihood of exceeding drought thresholds that would trigger water use restrictions. The methods illustrate how long lead forecasts can be extended and customized into secondary products that address issues of greater relevance to water resource managers.     

WATER SHORTAGES,DEVELOPMENT, AND DROUGHT IN ROCKLAND COUNTY,NEW YORK1

Knowledge of the historical variability of regional climate is an essential element of successful water resource planning. Lacking such perspective, planners and managers can be deceived as to the severity of a recent climate extreme, such as drought, and place a disproportionate blame on the climate, not the integrity of the supply system should water restrictions become necessary to avoid shortages. Presented here is a vivid example of how development, a lack of adequate planning, and climate variability have converged to produce three water emergencies in Rockland County, New York, since 1995. An examination of climate data over the past century indicates that the severity of the recent droughts was well within the range of past variability. Rather than climate alone, the recent water emergencies have highlighted a significant mismatch between supply and demand that has been developing in Rockland County over the past three decades. Substantial development, largely in the form of single‐family homes, has not been matched with a corresponding enhancement of the county's water system. Realistic plans for meeting current water demand will require cooperation among all stakeholders, beginning with an acknowledgement that climate variations are inevitable, not the sole source of blame when water shortages arise.     

REGIONALIZATION AND PREDICTION OF ANNUAL FLOODS IN THE FRASER RIVER CATCHMENT,BRITISH COLUMBIA1

A method of predicting probability distributions of annual floods is presented and is applied to the Fraser River catchment of British Columbia. The Gumbel distribution is found to adequately describe the observed flood frequency data. Using the estimated Gumbel parameters, discriminant analysis is performed to separate basins into flood regions. Within each region, regression analysis is used to relate physiographic and climatic variables to the means and standard deviations of the annual flood series. The regression equations are applied to four test basins and the results indicate that the method is suitable for an estimation of annual floods.