Using Count Data and Ordered Models in National Forest Recreation Demand Analysis

This research addresses the need to improve our knowledge on the demand for national forests for recreation and offers an in-depth data analysis supported by the complementary use of count data and ordered models. From a policy-making perspective, while count data models enable the estimation of monetary welfare measures, ordered models allow for the wider use of the database and provide a more flexible analysis of data. The main purpose of this article is to analyse the individual forest recreation demand and to derive a measure of its current use value. To allow a more complete analysis of the forest recreation demand structure the econometric approach supplements the use of count data models with ordered category models using data obtained by means of an on-site survey in the Bussaco National Forest (Portugal). Overall, both models reveal that travel cost and substitute prices are important explanatory variables, visits are a normal good and demographic variables seem to have no influence on demand. In particular, estimated price and income elasticities of demand are quite low. Accordingly, it is possible to argue that travel cost (price) in isolation may be expected to have a low impact on visitation levels.     

Measuring the Social Recreation Per-Day Net Benefit of the Wildlife Amenities of a National Park: A Count-Data Travel-Cost Approach

In this article, we apply count-data travel-cost methods to a truncated sample of visitors to estimate the Peneda-Gerês National Park (PGNP) average consumer surplus (CS) for each day of visit. The measurement of recreation demand is highly specific because it is calculated by number of days of stay per visit. We therefore propose the application of altered truncated count-data models or truncated count-data models on grouped data to estimate a single, on-site individual recreation demand function, with the price (cost) of each recreation day per trip equal to out-of-pocket and time travel plus out-of-pocket and on-site time costs. We further check the sensitivity of coefficient estimations to alternative models and analyse the welfare measure precision by using the delta and simulation methods by Creel and Loomis. With simulated limits, CS is estimated to be €194 (range €116 to €448). This information is of use in the quest to improve government policy and PNPG management and conservation as well as promote nature-based tourism. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to measure the average recreation net benefits of each day of stay generated by a national park by using truncated altered and truncated grouped count-data travel-cost models based on observing the individual number of days of stay.     

Valuing nature-based recreation in public natural areas of the Apalachicola River region, Florida

As more people visit natural areas for tourism and recreation purposes, it is becoming increasingly important to understand the value they place on these natural resources. Specifically, tourists to Florida have been increasingly interested in visiting natural areas, forests, parks, and preserves-highlighting the importance of this new and growing phenomenon. We analyze visitors' demand for nature-based recreation in the Apalachicola River region of Florida using the travel cost method. The results from a count data regression model reveal that on average visitors would pay 74.18 dollars per visit-day for nature-based recreation resulting in a total economic value of 484.56 million dollars attributable to nature-based recreation in the Apalachicola River region. Results of this study provide useful information for natural resources management in the region and a rationale to preserve Florida's unique ecosystems.     

Estimating the Economic Value of National Parks with Count Data Models Using On-Site,Secondary Data: The Case of the Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve

We estimate an individual travel cost model for Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve (GSD) in Colorado using on-site, secondary data. The purpose of the on-site survey was to help the National Park Service better understand the visitors of GSD; it was not intended for a travel cost model. Variables such as travel cost and income were estimated based on respondents’ Zip Codes. Following approaches found in the literature, a negative binomial model corrected for truncation and endogenous stratification fit the data the best. We estimate a recreational benefit of U.S. $89/visitor/year or U.S. $54/visitor/24-h recreational day (in 2002 U.S. $). Based on the approach presented here, there are other data sets for national parks, preserves, and battlefields where travel cost models could be estimated and used to support National Park Service management decisions.     

Application of the wilderness travel simulation model to the Appalachian Trail in Vermont

The wilderness travel simulation model estimates complex recreation use patterns in park and wilderness environments. The model was applied to a section of the Appalachian Trail in Vermont, a linear, long-distance, multiple-access trail system characteristic of the eastern United States. Many portions of the trail, including the study area, are now experiencing high use. The model estimated the average number of trail encounters per party day to be 3.3 and the average number of camp encounters per party night to be 2.3. Other measures of recreation use were also estimated that should prove useful to trail management and administration. Three trail management scenarios were tested, providing several preliminary insights to managers: the desirability of use redistributions as opposed to across-the-board reductions and needed emphasis on spatial use patterns and campsite encounters. Only minor modifications to the program were needed in applying the model to the trail environment and the model functioned accurately according to the validity tests performed.     

Effects of Place Identity,Place Dependence,and Experience-Use History on Perceptions of Recreation Impacts in a Natural Setting

It is generally accepted that recreation use in natural environments results in some degree of negative social and environmental impact. Environmental managers are tasked with mitigating the impact while providing beneficial recreation opportunities. Research on the factors that influence visitors' perceptions of environmental and social conditions is necessary to inform sound environmental management of protected natural areas. This study examines the effect of prior experience with the setting and two dimensions of place attachment (i.e., place identity and place dependence) on visitors' perceptions of three types of recreation impacts (i.e., depreciative behavior, environmental impacts, and recreation conflict). Principal components analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, and structural equation modeling were used to test the study hypotheses using data collected from 351 visitors through on-site questionnaires (response rate of 93 percent). The results show that prior experience exhibited a moderate and significant direct positive effect on place identity, place dependence, and visitors' perceptions of recreation impacts. Contrary to study hypotheses and prior research, neither place dependence nor place identity exhibited a significant effect on the dependent variables. The results show that prior experience causes visitors to be more sensitive to depreciative behaviors, environmental impacts, and recreation conflict. These findings raise concerns over potential visitor displacement and deterioration of site conditions. Implications for resource managers are discussed, which include education, modifying visitor use patterns, and site design strategies.     

Wildfire effects on hiking and biking demand in New Mexico: a travel cost study

We use a travel cost model to test the effects of wild and prescribed fire on visitation by hikers and mountain bikers in New Mexico. Our results indicate that net benefits for mountain bikers is $150 per trip and that they take an average of 6.2 trips per year. Hikers take 2.8 trips per year with individual net benefits per trip of $130. Both hikers' and mountain bikers' demand functions react adversely to prescribed burning. Net benefits for both groups fall as areas recover from prescribed burns. Because both visitation and annual recreation benefits decrease to these two types of visitors, this gives rise to multiple use costs associated with prescribed burning. With respect to wildfire, hikers and mountain bikers both exhibit decreased visitation as areas recover from wildfires, however, only hikers indicate an increase in per trip net benefits. Bikers' demand effectively drops to zero. These results differ from previous findings in the literature and have implications for efficient implementation of the National Fire Plan and whether prescribed burning is a cost effective tool for multiple use management of National Forests. Specifically, that fire and recreation managers cannot expect recreation users to react similarly to fire across recreation activities, or different geographic regions. What is cost effective in one region may not be so in another.     

Improving Benefit Transfer Demand Functions: A GIS Approach

Methodologies for transfer of non-market, natural resource recreation benefits are an active research topic. This arises because of the appeal of modelling the impacts of possible changes in site quality or benefits at unsurveyed sites. However, successful benefit transfer must necessarily rely on development of reliable visitor demand functions that incorporate travel time, demographic and substitute factors. Previous efforts to include all of these elements in a single arrivals model are rare. By integrating data from numerous sources within a geographical information system (GIS) we have developed a model to predict the number of visitors to a recreational woodland in eastern England. Variables were classified into discrete groups that were combined into comparatively homogeneous zones from which to calculate visit rates. Poisson regression techniques were then applied in a stepwise procedure to assess the influence of each determinant. Our analysis highlighted both substantial promise and some caveats in using GIS for future benefit transfer work.     

Benefits-based analysis of visitor use of Sorak-san National Park in Korea

Benefits-based management seeks to provide recreation benefits for recreation participants by managing the physical environments in which recreation occurs. This study investigates the relationship between benefits desired by visitors and the physical, social, and managerial characteristics of settings that facilitate realization of recreation benefits. Data such as perceived benefits from recreation experiences, setting attributes that significantly influenced perceived benefits, and sociodemographic variables were collected from 376 visitors to Sorak-san National Park in the eastern part of the Korean peninsula. Cluster analysis was used to group visitors' desired benefits into 12 domains: relationship with nature/scenery, escaping pressure, learning about nature, family togetherness, introspection, exploration, autonomy/achievement, being with friends, leading others, skills/learning, risk taking, and meeting/observing new people. Multiple regression was used to link benefit domains with the characteristics of settings. The social attribute of recreation settings was linked to eight of the ten benefit domains. There were two statistically strong multiple regression correlations: (1) between domain of “relationship with nature /scenery” and the attributes “forest/water,”“attractive nature,” and “facility/maintenance” and (2) between the domain of “escaping pressure” and the attributes “attractive nature” and “social.” The results of this study are useful to managers in their efforts to provide recreation opportunities for visitors to achieve beneficial outcomes.     

Multi-Destination and Multi-Purpose Trip Effects in the Analysis of the Demand for Trips to a Remote Recreational Site

One of the basic assumptions of the travel cost method for recreational demand analysis is that the travel cost is always incurred for a single purpose recreational trip. Several studies have skirted around the issue with simplifying assumptions and dropping observations considered as nonconventional holiday-makers or as nontraditional visitors from the sample. The effect of such simplifications on the benefit estimates remains conjectural. Given the remoteness of notable recreational parks, multi-destination or multi-purpose trips are not uncommon. This article examines the consequences of allocating travel costs to a recreational site when some trips were taken for purposes other than recreation and/or included visits to other recreational sites. Using a multi-purpose weighting approach on data from Gros Morne National Park, Canada, we conclude that a proper correction for multi-destination or multi-purpose trip is more of what is needed to avoid potential biases in the estimated effects of the price (travel-cost) variable and of the income variable in the trip generation equation.     

Integrating Social Marketing into Sustainable Resource Management at Padre Island National Seashore: An Attitude-Based Segmentation Approach

High demand for outdoor recreation and increasing diversity in outdoor recreation participants have imposed a great challenge on the National Park Service (NPS), which is tasked with the mission to provide open access for quality outdoor recreation and maintain the ecological integrity of the park system. In addition to management practices of education and restrictions, building a sense of natural resource stewardship among visitors may also facilitate the NPS ability to react to this challenge. The purpose of our study is to suggest a segmentation approach that is built on the social marketing framework and aimed at influencing visitor behaviors to support conservation. Attitude toward natural resource management, an indicator of natural resource stewardship, is used as the basis for segmenting park visitors. This segmentation approach is examined based on a survey of 987 visitors to the Padre Island National Seashore (PAIS) in Texas in 2003. Results of the K-means cluster analysis identify three visitor segments: Conservation-Oriented, Development-Oriented, and Status Quo visitors. This segmentation solution is verified using respondents’ socio-demographic backgrounds, use patterns, experience preferences, and attitudes toward a proposed regulation. Suggestions are provided to better target the three visitor segments and facilitate a sense of natural resource stewardship among them.     

Recreational Value of an Oasis in Oman

Increasing demand for water to develop non-agricultural activities is causing water to be diverted to high-value uses at the expense of irrigation. However, agriculture provides a flow of amenities in the desert environment which are not either accounted or paid. Oases are spread all over the globe and are threatened for various reasons among which is the high pressure of demand for fresh water. This paper estimates the recreation use value of an oasis. The paper is based on the Misfat Al-Abryeen oasis in Oman, a man-made area of streams and woodland. The travel cost method is used through an on-site questionnaire distributed to 230 visitors. Around 75% of visitors to the oasis also visited other historical or ecological sites during the same day-trip. The econometric model is estimated using negative binomial regression with endogenous stratification. The average consumer surplus, or benefit, from visiting Misfat Al-Abryeen is estimated at US104.74 per individual per trip. The total social benefit from this oasis is estimated at 104.74 per individual per trip. The total social benefit from this oasis is estimated at 366,590 per year. These results underscore the importance of the role played by irrigated agriculture in the provision of amenity services for the tourism sector in a desert environment. The sustainability of the irrigation activity depends on the recognition of the recreation role of oases and the transfer of part of these benefits to the farmers who maintain the irrigation system. The implementation of an entrance fee to the oasis might increase farmers’ profit by 6–21%.     

Impacts of changes in water quality on recreation behavior and benefits in Finland

The implementation of the European Union Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires nationally generalizable estimates of the benefits of protecting inland and coastal waters. As an alternative to benefit transfers and meta-analyses, we utilize national recreation inventory data combined with water quality data to model recreation participation and estimate the benefits of water quality improvements. Using hurdle models, we analyze the association of water clarity in individuals' home municipalities with the three most common water recreation activities – swimming, fishing and boating. The results show no effect on boating, but improved water clarity would increase the frequency of close-to-home swimming and fishing, as well as the number of fishers. Furthermore, to value the potential benefits of the WFD, we estimate the consumer surplus of a water recreation day using a travel cost approach. A water policy scenario with a 1-m improvement in water clarity for both inland and coastal waters indicates that the consumer surplus would increase 6% for swimmers and 15% for fishers. In contrast to previously estimated abatement costs to improve water quality, net benefits could turn out to be positive. Our study is a promising example of applying existing national recreation inventory data to estimate the benefits of water quality improvements for the purposes of the WFD.     

Forest Perception and Knowledge of Hikers and Mountain Bikers in Two Different Areas in Northwestern Switzerland

Recreational activities can have major impacts on vegetation and wildlife in frequently visited forests. We assessed forest perception and knowledge (state, functions, and species diversity) among hikers and mountain bikers in a frequently visited, seminatural suburban recreation forest (Muttenz) and in a more distantly situated, naturally grown excursion forest (Wasserfallen) in northwestern Switzerland. In all, 239 hikers and 126 mountain bikers were interviewed. Mountain bikers in both forests and hikers in the more intensely used recreation forest at Muttenz assessed the state of the forest less optimistically and showed a higher awareness of the negative impact of recreational activities on the flora and fauna than hikers at Wasserfallen. Furthermore, mountain bikers seemed aware of the social conflicts caused by their activity, since they appreciated neutral or positive encounters with other forest visitors. In contrast, 57% of hikers at Muttenz reported on negative experiences with other forest visitors, particularly with mountain bikers. In general, the interviewees ecological and biological forest knowledge (forest type and function, species diversity) was rather high. A large proportion was aware of the pros and cons of different forest conditions for plants and animals, and could name or recognize at least some plant and/or animal species typical for the visited forest. The forest knowledge was neither influenced by the type of recreational activity carried out nor by any aspect of forest visit behavior (frequency and duration of forest visits, means of transportation and travel distance to forest). However, the interviewees forest knowledge was influenced by their age and educational level.     

Spatially Characterizing Visitor Use and Its Association with Informal Trails in Yosemite Valley Meadows

Ecological impacts associated with nature-based recreation and tourism can compromise park and protected area goals if left unrestricted. Protected area agencies are increasingly incorporating indicator-based management frameworks into their management plans to address visitor impacts. Development of indicators requires empirical evaluation of indicator measures and examining their ecological and social relevance. This study addresses the development of the informal trail indicator in Yosemite National Park by spatially characterizing visitor use in open landscapes and integrating use patterns with informal trail condition data to examine their spatial association. Informal trail and visitor use data were collected concurrently during July and August of 2011 in three, high-use meadows of Yosemite Valley. Visitor use was clustered at statistically significant levels in all three study meadows. Spatial data integration found no statistically significant differences between use patterns and trail condition class. However, statistically significant differences were found between the distance visitors were observed from informal trails and visitor activity type with active activities occurring closer to trail corridors. Gender was also found to be significant with male visitors observed further from trail corridors. Results highlight the utility of integrated spatial analysis in supporting indicator-based monitoring and informing management of open landscapes. Additional variables for future analysis and methodological improvements are discussed.     

Congestion at Recreation Areas: Empirical Evidence on Perceptions, Mitigating Behaviour and Management Preferences

Economists have tried to estimate the demand for recreation under conditions of congestion, struggling especially with a model that uses observed rather than stated behaviour to obtain results. This paper reports statistical analyses of data on perceptions, mitigating behaviour and management preferences in order to highlight the difficulties related to empirical analysis of congestion. We offer evidence that may be of assistance to those wishing to construct measures of congestion for use in an observed behaviour model. The results may also be useful to recreation area managers who can implement a quota or permit system or change site entry or access fees to control access to the site they manage.     

Planning for environmental justice in an urban national park

Urban national parks were designed in the 1970s to bring nature and recreational opportunities to socio-economically disadvantaged communities in the USA. Using the theoretical frame of environmental justice, this paper discusses findings of a recent survey of visitors to Los Angeles' Santa Monica Mountains National Recreation Area – the United States' largest urban national park. Findings show park visitors were predominantly white, affluent, and lived nearby. People of colour travelled further, were significantly less likely to be return visitors, and were less inclined to use the park for active recreation. Seemingly, this park fails to meet the needs of the disadvantaged urban communities for whom it was created, a problem that may also affect other parks in the United States and potentially parks in other countries. Park planners and managers can take practical steps to increase accessibility to this park for people of colour and low-income earners, and should monitor other parks for patterns of ethno-racially differentiated access and utilisation.     

Who Visits a National Park and What do They Get Out of It?: A Joint Visitor Cluster Analysis and Travel Cost Model for Yellowstone National Park

Yellowstone National Park visitor data were obtained from a survey collected for the National Park Service by the Park Studies Unit at the University of Idaho. Travel cost models have been conducted for national parks in the United States; however, this study builds on these studies and investigates how benefits vary by types of visitors who participate in different activities while at the park. Visitor clusters were developed based on activities in which a visitor participated while at the park. The clusters were analyzed and then incorporated into a travel cost model to determine the economic value (consumer surplus) that the different visitor groups received from visiting the park. The model was estimated using a zero-truncated negative binomial regression corrected for endogenous stratification. The travel cost price variable was estimated using both 1/3 and 1/4 the wage rate to test for sensitivity to opportunity cost specification. The average benefit across all visitor cluster groups was estimated at between $235 and $276 per person per trip. However, per trip benefits varied substantially across clusters; from $90 to $103 for the “value picnickers,” to $185–$263 for the “backcountry enthusiasts,” $189–$278 for the “do it all adventurists,” $204–$303 for the “windshield tourists,” and $323–$714 for the “creature comfort” cluster group.     

Recreational System Optimization to Reduce Conflict on Public Lands

In response to federal administrative rule, the Tahoe National Forest (TNF), California, USA engaged in trail-route prioritization for motorized recreation (e.g., off-highway-vehicles) and other recreation types. The prioritization was intended to identify routes that were suitable and ill-suited for maintenance in a transportation system. A recreational user survey was conducted online (n?=?813) for user preferences for trail system characteristics, recreational use patterns, and demographics. Motorized trail users and non-motorized users displayed very clear and contrasting preferences for the same system. As has been found by previous investigators, non-motorized users expressed antagonism to motorized use on the same recreational travel system, whereas motorized users either supported multiple-use routes or dismissed non-motorized recreationists' concerns. To help the TNF plan for reduced conflict, a geographic information system (GIS) based modeling approach was used to identify recreational opportunities and potential environmental impacts of all travel routes. This GIS-based approach was based on an expert-derived rule set. The rules addressed particular environmental and recreation concerns in the TNF. Route segments were identified that could be incorporated into minimal-impact networks to support various types of recreation. The combination of potential impacts and user-benefits supported an optimization approach for an appropriate recreational travel network to minimize environmental impacts and user-conflicts in a multi-purpose system.     

Modelling visitor groups' intentions to displace from an urban trail: a combined stated preference and video monitoring approach

Depending on gender and activity, overcrowding and safety concerns may detract from urban green space use. Differences in use displacement intentions from a recreational trail in a forest in Vienna were investigated for male and female walkers as well as male and female dog-walkers (N = 425) using an image-based stated preference model. The trail scenarios were depicted as digitally calibrated images that systematically displayed combinations of levels of crowding with different mixes of user types and visitor behaviour. Visitors were asked whether the presented recreation scenario was so unacceptable that they would shift their use away from the presented trail. Hours and days of stated non-use of the recreation trail by various user groups are estimated by integrating the results of the behavioural model with annual visitation data. Use displacement intentions differed by gender and activity. High use levels were a greater concern for all respondents than very low use levels, particularly for female dog-walkers. However, only a small proportion of the recorded hours were heavily used. Safety concerns about very low use levels reduced the potential times of forest use for female walkers without a dog.