自然灾害的模糊风险

分析了自然灾害风险的本质含义,提出自然灾害分析的瓶颈在于系统的复杂性,解决或缓解这一问题的途径之一是用模糊系统的观点看待自然灾害风险,进行模糊风险分析。介绍了模糊风险的研究现状,给出模糊风险的一般性定义。对最简单的一类模糊风险－可能性－概率风险的定义和表达方法作了介绍。     

情景驱动的区域自然灾害风险分析

随着近年来自然灾害发生频次的增加与巨灾效应的不断涌现,人们对自然灾害风险分析提出了更高的要求与期望。然而,由于人们对"风险"认识的不全面与不系统,导致了灾害风险分析理论与技术水平的停滞不前。"风险是与某种不利事件有关的一种未来情景"是我们对"风险"的诠释。据该定义可知,风险不仅仅只是着眼于过去,更重要的是要展望未来;风险不再只是历史灾难的统计,而是未来不利事件情景的分析。因此,"情景分析"成为风险研究的一项新手段,它不仅摒弃了传统方法仅着眼"过去"的局限性而实现从"过去"到"现在"到"未来"合理过渡的研究思路,而且摒弃了传统方法仅限于因子统计分析的局限性而实现系统分析的研究理念。以"情景分析"为技术手段,提出了情景驱动的区域自然灾害风险分析方法,旨在探讨对风险研究思路与技术的创新。     

Strengthening the role of science and technology in disaster risk reduction: the Chilean strategy

This paper presents an integrative case study of Chile's national strategy of research, development, and innovation (R&D+i) for disaster resilience and progress towards developing the institutional conditions necessary for its successful implementation. The paper covers the period between 2016 and 2021, concentrating on the work of the Chilean Commission of R&D+i for Resilience to Disasters of Natural Origin (CREDEN). Through an analysis of the official records of the initiative at all of its stages, and 29 semi-structured interviews with CREDEN members and stakeholders, we aim to present a successful example of strengthening the role of science and technology in disaster risk reduction. Chile's experience is particularly interesting because its strategy focused on R&D+i and proposed developing an industry of scientific-based technological solutions for disaster resilience. The study also illustrates how strategic interaction between academia, state, and industry can be a key factor in aligning knowledge production to tackle current socio-technical challenges.     

自然灾害软风险区划图模式研究

如何表达风险值估计不准,是深层次风险区划研究的问题.将模糊风险研究引向自然灾害风险区划领域,探讨了风险值估计不准条件下自然灾害风险区划的图型模式.给出了一种带有“层次“结构的“多值的“的自然灾害风险区划图图型模式.这是应用软计算的思想和方法得到的一种自然灾害风险区划图,我们称之为自然灾害软风险区划图.自然灾害软风险区划图不仅提供了表达风险值估计不准这一信息,而且提供了风险信息的可靠性,为改进自然灾害风险区划提供一种新的思路.     

地震灾害风险因素和风险评估指标的模糊算法

提出了影响地震灾害风险的主要因素 ,分析了地震震级、烈度、人口密度等因素与某些震害现象之间的相关性 ,以及建筑物的地震破坏程度与其它风险因素的关系。筛选出了地震灾害模糊风险分析指标———震损度DA(其用于风险评估的指标值为 (da) 0 )。给出了一种多变量信息分配算法的公式。在建立因果律模糊关系矩阵时 ,以归并、排序的方法解决了自变量在其样本空间组合后的重叠与错序问题 ,并简化了矩阵运算。在此基础上 ,建立了震损度指标值 (da) 0 的计算方法。     

Modelling the elements of country vulnerability to earthquake disasters

Earthquakes have probably been the most deadly form of natural disaster in the past century. Diversity of earthquake specifications in terms of magnitude, intensity and frequency at the semi-continental scale has initiated various kinds of disasters at a regional scale. Additionally, diverse characteristics of countries in terms of population size, disaster preparedness, economic strength and building construction development often causes an earthquake of a certain characteristic to have different impacts on the affected region. This research focuses on the appropriate criteria for identifying the severity of major earthquake disasters based on some key observed symptoms. Accordingly, the article presents a methodology for identification and relative quantification of severity of earthquake disasters. This has led to an earthquake disaster vulnerability model at the country scale. Data analysis based on this model suggested a quantitative, comparative and meaning full interpretation of the vulnerability of concerned countries, and successfully explained which countries are more vulnerable to major disasters.     

The politics of risk in the Philippines: comparing state and NGO perceptions of disaster management

It is now generally appreciated that what constitutes vulnerability to one person is not necessarily perceived as such by the next. Different actors 'see' disasters as different types of events and as a result they prepare for, manage and record them in very different ways. This paper explores what different perceptions of vulnerability mean in terms of the understanding and practices of two significant sets of actors and stakeholders involved in disaster preparedness and management in the Philippines: the state and NGOs. Approaches to disaster are not just a function of people's perceptions of disaster risk but also of their understanding of the prevailing social order and social relations. Despite a shared vocabulary—which increasingly presents disasters as processes rather than events, takes a proactive rather than a reactive approach, and favours the inclusion of stakeholders rather than solely relying on technocratic management—different realities continue to make for different responses.     

A world in turmoil: governing risk,establishing order in humanitarian crises

This special issue of Disasters on humanitarian governance focuses on risk and order. Its contributions show the tensions between humanitarian normative ideals and practical consequences, as many of the ordering effects are associated with either intended or unintended consequences. This introduction offers a conceptual framing of humanitarian governance. Defining humanitarian governance as a subset of global governance, the paper shows how humanitarians have attempted to improve the consequences of their work by fighting instrumentalisation and instituting rationalisation processes. It adapts four questions, originally formulated by Michael Barnett ( 2013 ), to examine the ways in which humanitarian governance functions in more detail: what kind of world is being imagined and produced through the specific concern with order and risk? Who governs? How is this a form of humanitarian governance and how is it organised? And finally, what are the principal techniques of such governance? The conclusion summarises the main findings and sets an agenda for further research.     

Climate change implications for disaster risk management in Japan: A case study on perceptions of risk management personnel and communities in Saijo city

This paper reviews climate change impacts and the existing disaster risk management system in Japan and offers the results of a structured questionnaire survey of the community leaders and disaster risk management personnel of Saijo city of Japan that assesses their perceptions about dealing with the extreme disasters by the existing disaster risk management systems. This study was inspired by the record number of typhoon landfall that has surprised the local government and communities in 2004. While unearthing the hidden vulnerabilities in cities like Saijo, this event has loosened the confidence of local communities on the disaster risk management systems. From the study, we conclude that the existing disaster risk management systems need further fillip and that the proactive community involvement in disaster risk management is still in nascent stages. Associating with the scientific community, involving the local communities (including the elderly), enhancing the redundancy in disaster risk management systems, inculcating strategic thinking and micro-level planning, conducting vulnerability assessments by considering the special circumstances including resource constraints of small cities and better policy coordination across the administrative hierarchy are some important considerations for dealing with the uncertainty brought by the extreme events.     

Risk communication and risk perception: lessons from the 2011 floods in Brisbane,Australia

Risk communication and risk perception are critical factors in disaster management. Governments at all levels play a part in communicating risk, whereas the perception of risk entails active roles by community participants, including potential and actual victims of disasters. This paper discusses these matters in relation to the floods in Brisbane, Australia, in 2011. The findings are based on interviews with representatives of households whose dwellings or business premises were fully or partially inundated by the waters. The research shows how important it is to recognise the problems of institutional fragmentation in terms of communication and the active engagement of recipients in understanding and interpreting flood risk information (especially for slow‐onset riverine flooding, such as that suffered by Brisbane). Locally targeted information on risk is of vital importance in avoiding the misinterpretation of warning information in relation to environmental cues and in promoting adequate responses. The paper concludes with some recommendations.     

Household self‐blame for disasters: responsibilisation and (un)accountability in decentralised participatory risk governance

The most important theoretical argument concerning decentralised participatory governance is that it can make a government more accountable for the needs of the governed. Key to this process are participatory spaces that act as mechanisms for dialogue between citizens and local government. However, within Cochabamba, a city in the centre of Bolivia, South America, ‘at‐risk’ citizens engage minimally with disaster risk issues in participatory spaces, despite high levels of civic participation. This is because ‘at‐risk’ populations view disasters as a private/household problem that is symptomatic of household error, rather than seeing them as a broader public problem due to wider structural inequalities. Consequently, they redistribute responsibility for disaster risk reduction towards households, which (re)produces the absolution of government authorities as guarantors of disaster risk reduction. This paper challenges the normative assumption that participatory spaces facilitate democratic deliberation of disaster risk reduction and the downward accountability of local government for disaster risk reduction.     

Travelling without a helmet: tourists' vulnerabilities and responses to disasters in Indonesia

Tourists are particularly vulnerable when natural disasters occur in regions that they are visiting. It is assumed that they lack awareness and understanding of the actions that they need to take in such circumstances. This study examines the responses of tourists in times of disaster, building on empirical data collected through large‐scale surveys conducted in Bali and Yogyakarta, Indonesia, in 2015. Both are important tourist destinations in the country that have suffered major disasters in recent years. The different types of responses to these events are framed using a grid/group analysis stemming from cultural theory. The study resulted in three key findings: (i) current disaster management planning largely follows a single rationale; (ii) tourists are not a homogeneous group, but rather a complex, diverse, and dynamic body of stakeholders; and (iii) the focus of disaster management planning should shift from a single rationale to a polyrational methodology. Disaster managers need to consider, therefore, these different aspects in the context of preparedness.     

The impacts of climate change on the risk of natural disasters

Human emissions of greenhouse gases are already changing our climate. This paper provides an overview of the relation between climate change and weather extremes, and examines three specific cases where recent acute events have stimulated debate on the potential role of climate change: the European heatwave of 2003; the risk of inland flooding, such as recently in Central Europe and Great Britain; and the harsh Atlantic hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005. Furthermore, it briefly assesses the relation between climate change and El Ni?o, and the potential of abrupt climate change. Several trends in weather extremes are sufficiently clear to inform risk reduction efforts. In many instances, however, the potential increases in extreme events due to climate change come on top of alarming rises in vulnerability. Hence, the additional risks due to climate change should not be analysed or treated in isolation, but instead integrated into broader efforts to reduce the risk of natural disasters.     

深水平台施工过程自然风险定量评估

在分析现有风险理论的基础上,结合海洋施工实际,提出了一种对海洋施工自然风险进行定量评估的模型。根据目标系统各风险事件与影响因素之间存在高度非线性复杂映射的特点,提出了利用BP神经网络拟合方法,对主要风险事件发生概率进行量化的模型。针对传统的梯度下降优化算法收敛速度慢的特点,采用可避免计算Hesse矩阵的Levenberg-Marquardt算法来训练神经网络。这一模型可以模拟专家评价,并准确地按照专家的评定法则进行估算,具有一定的通用性。     

Coping and adaptation strategies and institutional perceptions of hydrological risk in an urban Amazonian city

This paper investigates coping and adaptation strategies and institutional perceptions of hydrological risk at the local scale in Santarém, an Amazonian city in the state of Pará, Brazil. Methods and tools of analysis encompassed secondary data, field observations, and qualitative techniques (focus-group discussions and in-depth interviews). Stakeholders from affected neighbourhoods describe their means of coping with and adapting to flooding, focusing on purposefulness, type of initiative and investment, risk timing, temporal and spatial scope, and performance. The results comprise an inventory of 16 mostly structural measures. The perceptions of six institutions of general responses to flooding are presented as opinions on actions that reduce the effects of such events, individual strategies and collective community endeavours in at-risk areas, and the activities of the public and private sectors to manage floods. Understanding of coping and adaptation strategies and knowledge of institutional flood risk perceptions can benefit the implementation of risk and disaster reduction policies and practices.     

黄河下游泥沙灾害与减灾对策(Ⅰ)——泥沙灾害分类与侵蚀型泥沙灾害

从泥沙研究的角度概述了与河流泥沙有关的灾害及其分类，将黄河下游的泥沙灾害分成侵蚀型泥沙灾害与堆积型泥沙灾害两种情况，讨论了侵蚀型泥沙灾害，包括滩岸坍塌、河道整治工程出险，初步提出了侵蚀型泥沙灾害的减灾方略。     

20世纪全球重大毒性灾害及其历史教训

本文回顾了20世纪世界41个国家发生的200起重大毒性灾害，分析研究了毒性灾害种类的历史演变、成因与特征，及其对人类社会和经济发展造成的重大影响和与经济损失。研究表明，随着科技发展与经济的全球化，21世纪将是毒性灾害频繁发生的时期，应从历史事件中汲取经验教训，采取果断有力措施，减少毒性灾害的发生，减轻毒性灾害造成的损失。     

Constructing a holistic approach to disaster risk reduction: the significance of focusing on vulnerability reduction

As a result of the increase in natural disaster losses, policy‐makers, practitioners, and members of the research community around the world are seeking effective and efficient means of overcoming or minimising them. Although various theoretical constructs are beneficial to understanding the disaster phenomenon and the means of minimising losses, the disaster risk management process becomes less effective if theory and practice are set apart from one another. Consequently, this paper seeks to establish a relationship between two theoretical constructs, ‘disaster risk reduction (DRR)’ and ‘vulnerability reduction’, and to develop a holistic approach to DRR with particular reference to improving its applicability in practical settings. It is based on a literature review and on an overall understanding gained through two case studies of post‐disaster infrastructure reconstruction projects in Sri Lanka and three expert interviews in Sri Lanka and the United Kingdom.     

Re-framing risk: the changing context of disaster mitigation and preparedness

This issue of Disasters explores the roles of NGOs and other actors in disaster mitigation and preparedness and also reviews broad international trends in risk management and disaster prevention. The need to address risk, and with that the motivation to improve disaster mitigation and preparedness, has tended to fall between the cracks of grander frameworks of development co-operation and humanitarian assistance. Despite the seemingly glaring need to reduce the horrific impact of floods, droughts and wars, disaster mitigation and preparedness have neither the allure of directly 'saving lives', nor of providing an 'escape from poverty'. There are, however, signs that risk management is becoming a mainstream concern. Factors such as the need to address factors that do not fit into traditional slots on the relief-development continuum, the rising economic costs of disasters and a growing acknowledgement that aid will never cover more than a small fraction of the costs of disasters are all leading to new approaches, priorities and institutional configurations. A realisation that dealing with risk and insecurity is a central part of how poor people develop their livelihood strategies has begun to position disaster mitigation and preparedness within many poverty alleviation agendas. A number of long-standing challenges remain; most of all, the complexities of maintaining the political will that is needed to ensure that risk management becomes more than a passing fad.     

1990年以来中国海洋灾害系统风险特征分析及其综合风险管理

长期以来,海洋灾害一直是困扰着海域及海岸带社会经济发展的一大障碍.中国是深受海洋灾害影响的国家之一.为此,从灾害系统论的角度,分析了1990年以来中国海洋灾害系统的风险特征.研究表明,中国在过去的15年中,工程性防灾减灾措施已经使海洋灾害灾情得到了一定的控制,但由于中国海域海事活动不断增多、海岸带经济密度快速提高,大大增加了海域及海岸带承灾体对海洋灾害风险的暴露,又由于海岸带及近海海域污染加重,海洋生物灾害发生的可能性增大,使中国海域面临的灾害风险趋于上升.此外,还讨论了中国海洋灾害综合风险管理的体系,提出从海洋灾害系统角度,加强海洋灾害综合风险管理能力的建设,以促进海洋及海岸带地区由政府、企业、社区共同组成的综合减灾范式的建立.