Impacts of Variable Climate and Effluent Flows on the Transboundary Santa Cruz Aquifer

Assessing groundwater resources in the arid and semiarid borderlands of the United States and Mexico represents a challenge for land and water managers, particularly in the Transboundary Santa Cruz Aquifer (TSCA). Population growth, residential construction, and industrial activities have increased groundwater demand in the TSCA, in addition to wastewater treatment and sanitation demands. These activities, coupled with climate variability, influence the hydrology of the TSCA and emphasize the need for groundwater assessment tools for decision‐making purposes. This study assesses the impacts of changes in groundwater demand, effluent discharge, and climate uncertainties within the TSCA from downstream of the Nogales International Wastewater Treatment Plant to the northern boundary of the Santa Cruz Active Management Area. We use a conceptual water budget model to analyze the long‐term impact of the different components of potential recharge and water losses within the aquifer. Modeling results project a future that ranges from severe long‐term drying to positive wetting. This research improves the understanding of the impact of natural and anthropogenic variables on water sustainability, with an accessible methodology that can be globally applied.     

The “Short Cut” Approach for the Reality of Enhanced Groundwater Contamination

Based on the reality of (a) soil heterogeneity in the vadose zone, (b) enhanced desorption from soil and solubility in water of water insoluble contaminants in the presence of surfactants, and (c) wetting/drying cycles of groundwater recharge (a major cause of fractures formation), a coherent “short-cut” conceptual approach is advanced to account for enhanced groundwater contamination. This is an attempt to close the gap between theory, lab simulations and conventional modelling-based predictions, and observed higher concentrations and more rapid arrival times of contaminants reaching groundwater. Recent data concerning chloride ion and non-ionic surfactants concentrations in aquifers and groundwater wells, combined with previous results concerning the concentrations of tritium, chlorides, metals, organic hydrocarbons and surfactants in the unsaturated and saturated zones of Israel's aquifers, are accounted for in terms of the “short-cut” approach. The contradiction between predictions of groundwater contamination made with conventional, deterministic, homogeneous models and the actual observed behavior of contaminants in soils and aquifers is thus explaind. The “short cut” approach should not be perceived as a better type of model to guide modelling. Rather, it is a proposal for a conceptual change from the realistically invalid, but commonly accepted, conventional “buffer-protective soil/long-term groundwater contamination” to the “short cut” conceptual model to explain the enhanced groundwater contamination actually observed. Although the validity of the proposed approach is strongly supported by the data here presented for the case of Israel (serving as an illustrative case study), selected results and conclusions drawn from studies conducted worldwide suggest its general applicability and usefulness. A major conclusion evolved from the “short-cut” conceptual model is that contemporary groundwater management policies, based on the current perception of groundwater contamination processes and their modelling, may result in an irreversible detrimental effect on the environmental situation in the long run. In any case, prevention, rather than correction/remediation, is strongly recommended as the strategy of choice for rational long-term management of groundwater resources.     

Using a Mass Balance Model to Evaluate Groundwater Budget of Seawater‐Intruded Island Aquifers1

Jang, Cheng‐Shin, Chen‐Wuing Liu, Shih‐Kai Chen, and Wen‐Sheng Lin, 2011. Using a Mass Balance Model to Evaluate Groundwater Budget of Seawater‐Intruded Island Aquifers. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 61‐73. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00593.x Abstract: The study developed a mass balance model to evaluate the groundwater budget of seawater‐intruded island aquifers using limited available data. The Penghu islands were selected as a study area. As sparse observed data were available in the islands, methods of combining water and chloride balances were used to determine the amounts of groundwater pumping, seawater intrusion, aquifer storages, and safe yields in the shallow and deep aquifers. The groundwater budget shows that seawater intrusion to freshwater aquifers was 1.38 × 10⁶ and 0.29 × 10⁶ m³/year in the shallow and deep aquifers, respectively, indicating that the seawater intrusion is severe in the both aquifers. The safe yield of the shallow aquifer was 14.56 × 10⁶ m³/year in 2005 which was four times higher than that of the deep aquifer (3.70 × 10⁶ m³/year). However, the annual pumping amounts in the shallow and deep aquifers were 4.77 × 10⁶ and 3.63 × 10⁶ m³/year, respectively. Although the safe yield of the shallow aquifer is enough for all water resources demands, only 55% of exploitation amount was extracted from the shallow aquifer due to its poor water quality. Groundwater exploitation in the deep aquifer should be significantly reduced and regulated by a dynamic management of pumping scheme because the annual pumping amounts are close to the safe yield and seawater intrusion occurs continually. Additionally, to alleviate further aquifer salination, at least half of the current annual groundwater abstraction should be reduced.     

An Aquifer Vulnerability Assessment of the Paluxy Aquifer, Central Texas, USA, Using GIS and a Modified DRASTIC Approach

D epth to water, net Recharge, Aquifer media, Soil media, Topography, Impact of the vadose zone, and Conductivity of the aquifer). Using such an approach allows one to investigate the potential for groundwater contamination on a regional, rather than site-specific, scale. Based upon data from variables such as soil permeability, depth to water, aquifer hydraulic conductivity, and topography, subjective numerical weightings have been assigned according to the variable's relative importance in regional groundwater quality. The weights for each variable comprise a GIS map layer. These map layers are combined to formulate the final groundwater pollution potential map. Using this method of investigation, the pollution potential map for the study area classifies 47% of the area as having low pollution potential, 26% as having moderate pollution potential, 22% as having high pollution potential, and 5% as having very high pollution potential.     

Calibrating a Basin‐Scale Groundwater Model to Remotely Sensed Estimates of Groundwater Evapotranspiration

Remotely sensed vegetation indices correspond to canopy vigor and cover and have been successfully used to estimate groundwater evapotranspiration (ET_g) over large spatial and temporal scales. However, these data do not provide information on depth to groundwater (dtgw) necessary for groundwater models (GWM) to calculate ET_g. An iterative approach is provided that calibrates GWM to ET_g derived from Landsat estimates of the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). The approach is applied to different vegetation groups in Mason Valley, Nevada over an 11‐year time span. An uncertainty analysis is done to estimate the resulting mean and 90% confidence intervals in ET_g to dtgw relationships to quantify errors associated with plant physiologic complexity, species variability, and parameter smoothing to the 100 m GWM‐grid, temporal variability in soil moisture and nonuniqueness in the solution. Additionally, a first‐order second moment analysis shows ET_g to dtgw relationships are almost exclusively sensitive to estimated land surface, or maximum, ET_g despite relatively large uncertainty in extinction depths and hydraulic conductivity. The EVI method of estimating ET_g appears to bias ET_g during years with exceptionally wet spring/summer conditions. Excluding these years improves model performance significantly but highlights the need to develop a methodology that accounts not only on quantity but timing of annual precipitation on phreatophyte greenness.     

Application of a DPSIR Modeling Framework to Assess Spatial–Temporal Differences of Water Poverty in China

Water shortage is a common problem around the world, especially in developing countries. Water shortage is closely linked to natural and social conditions, but the linkages between these natural and social conditions and their underlying temporal and spatial variation are less well explored. This paper details an application of the Driving‐Force‐Pressure‐State‐Impact‐Response (DPSIR) model, a holistic and sustainable tool for resources planning and management, and uses comprehensive weights to evaluate the water poverty (wp) in China from 1997 to 2014. This study applies the Kernel density estimation model to analyze the temporal variation trend and uses the least square error model to analyze the spatial pattern of wp. The results show the level of wp is gradually declining over time and the improvements in the coastal and inland wp situation are not spatially harmonious, and there are four primary types of wp in China based on drivers and causal mechanisms: D‐P‐I, D‐P‐I‐R, D‐P‐S‐I, and D‐P‐S‐I‐R. Furthermore, we analyze the main causes of spatial difference of wp and put forward corresponding countermeasures. The research findings are intended to provide a new insight for the evaluation of wp in the context of sustainable development, breaking past limitations that arise in simplified analyses using a single method, and to provide a strategy for regional water resources management to relieve wp.     

Understanding the Large‐Scale Influence of Levees on Floodplain Connectivity Using a Hydrogeomorphic Approach

The widespread construction of levees has reduced river–floodplain connectivity and altered associated fluvial processes in many river systems. Despite the recognition that levees can alter floodplain connectivity, few studies have examined the role of levees in reducing floodplain areas at large watershed scales. This paper explores the application of a hydrogeomorphic floodplain inundation model in the Wabash Basin, located in the Midwestern United States, to assess changes in floodplain area in levee‐protected areas. We evaluate 10‐ and 30‐m topographic resolutions and spatially examine the influence of levees on floodplain area in relation to river network attributes. Generally, floodplains in levee‐protected areas were influenced by topographic resolution, stream order, and elevation details of levees found in topography datasets. We show, when compared to Federal Emergency Management Agency maps, our approach underpredicts floodplain area when using 10‐m resolution topography data but only slightly overpredicts when using 30‐m resolution data. After removing details of levees from topography data, we found changes in floodplain area varied spatially, but basin‐aggregate results changed little compared to topography datasets that contain levees, though larger floodplain areas were produced in some regions where levees were removed. This work contributes to a growing research emphasis on using hydrogeomorphic floodplain models to understand floodplain disconnectivity.     

Human actions, the survival of keystone species, and the resilience of ecological–economic systems

Human (managerial) actions affect the survival probabilities of the keystone species of an ecological–economic system. In turn, the well-being of these keystone species translates into the well-being or the resilience of the underlying ecological–economic system. What are the theoretical connections between human actions, keystone species survival, and the resilience of ecological–economic systems? In this note, we construct a simple stochastic model to draw out the links between this trinity.     

Long-term trends in the Real real prices of primary commodities: Inflation bias and the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis

In his recent article on measuring the long-term trends in the real prices of primary commodities, Cuddington (2010) extends in several important respects our earlier efforts (Svedberg and Tilton, 2006) to correct real commodity price trends for biases in the Consumer Price Index and other deflators. First, he argues for a log-linear relationship between prices and time. Second, he proposes a simple and quick method for obtaining corrected price trends from the published but uncorrected estimates. Finally, he illustrates, for the case of copper and presumably for many other commodities as well, the difficulties of obtaining real price trends significantly different from zero when the log values of the price data contain a unit root, requiring the use of difference stationary models.We welcome these insights, which should improve and make easier efforts to estimate correctly real commodity price trends over the long run. We would stress, however, that it is still important to correct for the biases in inflation indices, notwithstanding the failure of difference stationary models to obtain long-run real price trends (both corrected and uncorrected) significantly different from zero.     

How to Constrain Multi‐Objective Calibrations of the SWAT Model Using Water Balance Components

Accurate discharge simulation is one of the most common objectives of hydrological modeling studies. However, a good simulation of discharge is not necessarily the result of a realistic simulation of hydrological processes within the catchment. We propose an evaluation framework that considers both discharge and water balance components as evaluation criteria for calibration of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). In this study, we integrated average annual values of surface runoff, groundwater flow, and evapotranspiration in the model evaluation procedure to constrain the selection of good model runs for the Little River Experimental Watershed in Georgia, United States. For evaluating water balance and discharge dynamics, the Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and percent bias (PBIAS) were used. In addition, the ratio of root mean square error and standard deviation of measured data (RSR) was calculated for individual segments of the flow duration curve to identify the best model runs in terms of discharge magnitude. Our results indicate that good statistics for discharge do not guarantee realistic simulations of individual water balance components. Therefore, we recommend constraining the ranges of water balance components to achieve a more realistic simulation of the entire hydrological system, even if tradeoffs between good statistics for discharge simulations and reasonable amounts of the water balance components are unavoidable. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Predicting the Fate and Transport of E. coli in Two Texas River Basins Using a Spatially Referenced Regression Model1

Abstract: The two main rivers of southeast Texas: Guadalupe and San Antonio have shown high temporal increase in bacteria concentration during the last decade. The SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed (SPARROW) attributes model, developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), has been applied to predict the fluxes and concentrations of contaminants in unmonitored streams and to identify the sources of these contaminants. This model identifies every reach as a basic network unit to distribute the sources, delivery, and attenuation factors. The model is data intensive and implements nonlinear regression to solve the parsimonious relations for describing various watershed processes. This study explored watershed and hydrological characteristics (land uses, precipitation, human and animal population, point sources, areal hydraulic load and drainage density, etc.) as the probable sources and delivery mechanisms of waterborne pathogens and their indicator (Escherichia coli [E. coli]) in the Guadalupe and San Antonio River basins. The effect of using various statistical indices for model selection on the final model’s ability to explain the various E. coli sources and transport processes was also analyzed.     

Evaluation of Gauge‐Radar Merging Methods Using a Semi‐Distributed Hydrological Model in the Upper Thames River Basin,Canada

Gauge‐radar merging methods combine rainfall estimates from rain gauges and radar to capitalize on the strengths of the individual instruments. The performance of four well‐known gauge‐radar merging methods, including mean field bias correction, Brandes spatial adjustment, local bias correction using kriging, and conditional merging, are examined using Environment Canada radar and the Upper Thames River Basin in southwestern Ontario, Canada, as a case study. The analysis assesses the effect of gauge‐radar merging methods on: (1) the accuracy of predicted rainfall accumulations; and (2) the accuracy of predicted streamflows using a semi‐distributed hydrological model. In addition, several influencing factors (i.e., gauge density, storm type, basin type, proximity to the radar tower, and time‐step of adjustment) are analyzed to determine their effect on the performance of the rainfall estimation techniques. Confirming results of previous studies, the merging methods provide an increase in the accuracy of both rainfall accumulation estimations and predicted streamflows. The results also indicate specific factors such as gauge density, rainfall intensity, and time‐step of adjustment can reduce the accuracy of merging methods and play a key role in the examination of its use for operational purposes. Results provide guidance for hydrologists and engineers assessing how best to apply corrected radar products to improve rainfall estimation and hydrological modeling accuracy.     

Application of a Modified Health Belief Model to the Pro‐Environmental Behavior of Private Well Water Testing

A social cognition model of health behavior, the health belief model, was applied to the pro‐environmental behavior of private well water testing. Conceptualizing environmental behaviors as health behaviors may provide new insight into pro‐environmental behavior change. A groundwater education program was provided to K‐12 children throughout New England. Both child participants and their parents completed surveys pertaining to private well water behavior. Results indicate that perceived barriers and socioeconomic status significantly influenced past well water testing of parent participants. Perceived barriers included: participants' concern related to the cost of treating their water, and how a well water problem would influence their property value. Parent participants also indicated that they would perform future well water testing if they received a reminder cue to action that might include: getting a discount or reminder in the mail, if a well testing program was available, and state or local requirement. Our findings reinforce the need for continued private well water research and parallels to additional environmental behaviors.     

The Influence of Agroforestry and Other Land-Use Types on the Persistence of a Sumatran Tiger (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Panthera tigris sumatrae</Emphasis>) Population: An Individual-Based Model Approach

The importance of preserving both protected areas and their surrounding landscapes as one of the major conservation strategies for tigers has received attention over recent decades. However, the mechanism of how land-use surrounding protected areas affects the dynamics of tiger populations is poorly understood. We developed Panthera Population Persistence (PPP)—an individual-based model—to investigate the potential mechanism of the Sumatran tiger population dynamics in a protected area and under different land-use scenarios surrounding the reserve. We tested three main landscape compositions (single, combined and real land-uses of Tesso-Nilo National Park and its surrounding area) on the probability of and time to extinction of the Sumatran tiger over 20 years in Central Sumatra. The model successfully explains the mechanisms behind the population response of tigers under different habitat landscape compositions. Feeding and mating behaviours of tigers are key factors, which determined population persistence in a heterogeneous landscape. All single land-use scenarios resulted in tiger extinction but had a different probability of extinction within 20 years. If tropical forest was combined with other land-use types, the probability of extinction was smaller. The presence of agroforesty and logging concessions adjacent to protected areas encouraged the survival of tiger populations. However, with the real land-use scenario of Tesso-Nilo National Park, tigers could not survive for more than 10 years. Promoting the practice of agroforestry systems surrounding the park is probably the most reasonable way to steer land-use surrounding the Tesso-Nilo National Park to support tiger conservation.