不同碳减排政策对内外资企业竞争力的影响比较

一方面,由于我国内外资企业的生产效率和碳排放效率差距较大,不同的碳减排政策势必会对内外资企业的市场竞争力带来不同的影响;另一方面,已有文献大多在完全竞争的框架下对不同减排政策的实施效应进行分析,而事实上我国碳减排政策所覆盖的产业大多是不完全竞争甚至是寡头垄断。由此,我们基于内外资企业存在低碳技术差距这一新的研究视角,通过构建两阶段博弈模型来比较分析相同碳强度减排目标下强制减排、碳税与碳交易等三种减排政策对内外资企业产量、市场份额及其社会总产量的影响,从而有利于我国从妥善处理内外资关系的角度制定更有针对性的减排政策。结果表明:(1)三种减排政策都降低了内资企业的产量和市场份额,且内外资企业低碳技术差距越大时内资企业的市场份额下降越多。(2)强制减排降低了社会总产量,碳税和碳交易同等幅度地减少了社会总产量。(3)最优税率仅仅是减排目标的增函数。(4)市场出清的碳交易价格和碳税税率相等,且其数值仅与减排目标正相关,而与碳排放权的分配无关。(5)碳交易比碳税更有利于"保护"内资企业的市场竞争力。相关政策启示如下:(1)尽快确定普适的碳排放核算标准,核算出各行业内外资企业的低碳技术差距;(2)尽快在全国范围内启动碳交易机制,建立促进缩小内外资企业低碳技术的机制;(3)在碳交易市场条件不成熟的行业可以率先推出碳税政策;(4)政府应该根据内外资企业低碳技术差距来对不同行业采取最适宜的减排政策,而非"一刀切"。     

Energy and economic impacts of an international multi-regional carbon market

The establishment of a global multi-regional carbon market is considered to be a cost effective approach to facilitate global emission abatement and has been widely concerned.The ongoing planned linkage between the European Union’s carbon market and a new emission trading system in Australia in 2015 would be an important attempt to the practice of building up an international carbon market across different regions.To understand the abatement effect of such a global carbon market and to study its energy and economic impact on different market participants,this article adopts a global dynamic computable general equilibrium model with a detailed representation of the interactions between energy and economic systems.Our model includes 20 economic sectors and 19 regions,and describes in detail 17 energy technologies.Bundled with fossil fuel consumptions,the emission permits are considered to be essential inputs in each of the production and consumption activities in the economic system to simulate global carbon market policies.Carbon emission permits are endogenously set in the model,and can be traded between sectors and regions.Considering the current development of the global carbon market,this study takes 2020 as the study period.Four scenarios(reference scenario,independent carbon market scenario,Europe Union（EUh-Australia scenario,and China-EU-Australia scenario） are designed to evaluate the impact of the global carbon market involving China,the EU,and Australia.We find that the carbon price in the three countries varies a lot,from $32/tCO₂ in Australia,to $17.5/tCO₂ in the EU,and to $10/tCO₂ in China.Though the relative emission reduction（3%） in China is lower than that in the EU（9%） and Australia（18%）,the absolute emission reduction in China is far greater than that in the EU and Australia.When China is included in the carbon market,which already includes the EU and Australia,the prevailing global carbon price falls from $22 per ton carbon dioxide（CO₂） to $12/tCO₂,due to the relatively lower abatement cost in China.Seventy-one percent of the EU’s and eighty-one percent of Australia’s domestic reduction burden would be transferred to China,increasing 0.03%of the EU’s and 0.06%of Australia’s welfare.The emission constraint improves the energy efficiency of China’s industry sector by 1.4%,reduces coal consumption by3.3%,and increases clean energy by 3.5%.     

中国碳市场波动溢出效应研究

自2013年以来,中国已先后建立了七个区域性碳市场。研究中国碳市场之间的波动溢出效应,有助于发现在碳市场运行初期起价格引导作用的区域市场,为其它地区碳市场的发展和全国碳市场的建立提供建议。本文选择广东、湖北和深圳三个交易量最大的区域碳市场为样本,利用多元GARCH(1,1)-BEKK模型,检验其波动溢出效应。为了消除履约期的影响,本文根据履约期将样本划分为阶段一(2014年7月1日—2015年6月30日)和阶段二(2015年7月1日—2016年7月19日),分阶段进行了检验,并从市场有效性的视角解释了检验结果。波动溢出效应检验结果显示:在阶段一内,广东碳市场对湖北碳市场、湖北碳市场对深圳碳市场、深圳碳市场对广东碳市场分别存在单向的波动溢出效应;在阶段二内,只存在深圳碳市场对广东碳市场的单向波动溢出效应;在整个样本期内,只存在深圳碳市场对广东碳市场的单向波动溢出效应。基于方差比的市场有效性检验结果显示:无论是阶段一、阶段二或整个样本期,三个碳市场均没有达到弱式有效。本文进一步在多重分形检验的基础上,利用多重分形谱宽度,比较了三个碳市场的非有效性程度,结果显示:在阶段一、阶段二和整个样本期,三个碳市场有效性大小关系分别为:湖北广东深圳、深圳湖北广东、广东深圳湖北。可见,三个碳市场早期的波动溢出效应不完全符合市场有效性大小关系,而较晚期的波动溢出效应符合市场有效性大小关系,这证明了中国碳市场在阶段二相比阶段一更为成熟。本文最后对中国碳排放权交易市场的发展提出了政策建议。     

中国试点碳市场监管机制研究与国际经验借鉴

2015年9月《中美元首气候变化联合声明》宣布中国将于2017年启动全国性碳排放交易体系以来,中国碳市场的筹建及7大试点的运行备受国内外媒体和学术界的关注。相关预测显示,中国碳市场届时将一举超过目前全球最大的欧盟碳排放交易体系EU ETS成为世界第一大碳交易市场,但由于7个试点运行时间较短、试点地区重视程度以及建设侧重点不统一等原因,目前中国碳市场存在着监管机构职责不清、监管体系不健全、监管政策不到位等一系列问题。本研究从监管机构、监管政策、技术支持平台、监管内容等方面梳理和分析了中国7个试点碳市场的监管体系,并将其与EU ETS、RGGI等国际上发展较为成熟的碳市场监管体系进行了对比分析后发现:1在监管手段方面,EU ETS与RGGI均侧重于依靠法律手段,而中国碳市场的监管手段则主要以地方性规范文件为主;2在监管机构职能方面,EU ETS的二级管理体系有效划分了监管范畴,保证了各级监管力度。RGGI的第三方独立监管模式则很好的保证了监管的公平性,充分发挥了碳市场事中监管作用,而中国碳市场则主要依赖于地方发改委来进行监管,存在职责划分不明晰等问题;3在监管重心方面,EU ETS侧重于对市场运行中的操作性风险和交易性风险进行防范,RGGI则更加关注交易风险的实时监控,而中国碳市场目前主要针对市场价格波动风险进行了防范。由此对中国即将建立的全国性碳市场监管机制设计提出了如下建议:1提高碳市场立法效力,完善监管政策体系;2平衡监管权力,成立专职监管机构;3加强过程监管,完善电子平台安全建设;4加大碳市场信息披露力度,鼓励公众及行业协会参与,形成外部监督机制。     

中国深度脱碳路径及政策分析

《巴黎协定》开启了全球气候治理的新进程,进一步明确了全球应对气候变化的紧迫性和目标要求。对中国来说,如何尽快推动经济增长和碳排放的脱钩,不仅是实现应对气候变化中长期战略目标的核心任务,更是保障经济社会可持续发展的必然要求。为此,本文基于中国经济、社会、能源和重要的终端能源消费行业历史发展趋势的分析,通过"自下而上"的模型方法考察了能源、工业、建筑、交通等行业和领域的深度碳减排潜力,并基于详细的技术分析提出了中国中长期的深度脱碳路径。研究表明,在深度脱碳路径下,中国将顺利完成国家自主贡献提出的2030年左右碳排放达峰和碳强度较2005年下降60%—65%的目标;此后非化石能源发展进一步加速,到2050年非化石能源在一次能源中占比达到44%左右,工业、建筑、交通等终端耗能行业的低碳转型进一步加速,2050年碳排放回落至2005年前水平,碳强度较2005年下降90%以上。为实现深度脱碳,本文从强化碳排放总量约束和相关制度规范建设、完善产业低碳发展激励政策、加强相关市场机制作用、倡导低碳生活和消费等四方面提出了相应的政策建议,以供决策者参考。     

Consideration of some key issues of carbon market development in China

The global carbon market has developed rapidly with two significant trends of globalization and financialization.Deriving economic interest is a nation driven-force behind the international climate negotiation and carbon market.According to deeply analyzed relationships between the carbon market and the key subjects of the climate negotiation,this article reveals that promoting the development of the global carbon market is one of the core interests of developed nations.Based on the background of international carbon market development and domestic carbon market pilots,four suggestions to the key issues of China’s carbon market are provided.The first is that the goal of China’s carbon market should be in line with and contribute to the national objectives and policies addressing climate change.The second is that the Chinese carbon market should mainly target the emission reduction of production-sectors,and contribute to their upgradation and transformation.The third is mat the development of the nation-wide carbon market in China should first take the principle of unbalanced regional development into consideration.The fourth is that linking China’s carbon market to the international market should keep steps in line with international opening-up of China’s financing system.     

配额免费分配法下市场结构对碳交易市场运行效率的影响

在产品市场和碳交易市场均为完全竞争的市场结构中,碳交易机制是一种有效的环境政策,但在现实环境下,产品市场和碳交易市场往往都是不完全竞争的。本文采用复杂适应系统仿真的方法,构建基于SWARM的碳交易市场仿真模型,建立碳排放权交易市场仿真系统,研究产品市场和碳交易市场结构对碳交易市场的运行效率的综合影响,同时为了降低产品市场垄断企业对碳交易市场运行效率的影响,本文通过增加碳交易市场配额缺口和增加参与交易的中小控排企业数量两种方式,探寻如何在产品市场不完全竞争的环境中设计合适碳交易机制。研究发现:1产品市场垄断会导致碳交易市场流动性不稳定,出现波动聚集等现象。2在产品市场处于相同结构时,碳交易市场垄断会导致成交量和成交额减少,流动性降低。3不同市场结构对碳交易市场的价格波动没有显著影响。4产品市场的市场结构会影响碳交易市场运行的有效性,完全竞争的产品市场下,碳交易市场的收益波动符合随机游走,而垄断力会改变这一特征。5市场流动性随着碳配额缺口的扩大发生显著变化,成交量和成交额随之显著增加,在产品市场垄断的市场结构中,通过加紧配额供给,可以增加碳交易市场的流动性,改变碳交易市场低迷的交易状况。6鼓励小企业参与市场交易对碳交易市场的流动性没有产生显著影响,但会在一定程度上降低垄断企业在碳交易市场上的支配力,从而改善碳交易市场的有效性。     

Linking China’s emissions trading pilot schemes

All seven emissions trading pilots in China operate independently. One challenge facing most of them is the low inclusion thresholds for enterprises and the few total covered emissions, which negatively influences the effects of the emissions trading systems (ETSs). Some pilot sites, such as Guangdong, Hubei, Tianjin and Beijing, have indicated their willingness to link their schemes with others. ETS linking could expand scheme coverages and therefore help to reduce the overall costs of achieving the linked schemes’ emissions control targets. Linking could also help to address the issues of carbon leakage and reduce price fluctuations. The potential benefits and feasibility of linking different pilot systems are analyzed in this article. The seven pilot regions are at different stages of social and economic development, with significant differences in total emissions and emissions structures as well as carbon abatement potentials and costs. Through linking, more-developed regions such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, which are typically considered to face higher mitigation costs, will have the opportunity to achieve their emissions control targets by purchasing carbon units from less-developed regions, which will earn financial revenues from selling the units. To realize this win-win result, a series of policy and technical barriers at both the central government and pilot government levels needs to be overcome. Establishing a unified national emissions trading market would appear to be the ideal solution to these challenges, but it will take considerable time and will not be the short-term solution. In the absence of a unified national scheme, it is recommended that the central government encourage pilot schemes to link, that it develops corresponding national policies to support the linking efforts and that the pilot schemes that are intended to be linked coordinate on certain design elements. Based on the coordinating need, the major elements of an ETS can be divided into four categories: elements that need mutual recognition (cap setting and allowance allocation methods); elements that should be completely identical (compliance mechanisms, price containment measures, banking and borrowing rules, and offset mechanisms); technical elements that are preferably identical and easy to coordinate (MRV standards, technical registry standards); and elements that require no coordination (coverages and scopes).     

碳市场政策下企业对碳信用的支付意愿及影响因素研究

中国已经在7个省市进行了碳排放权交易市场的试点,并拟于2017年建立全国碳排放权交易市场。随着碳市场政策的逐步完善,碳排放将成为企业的总量控制目标之一。在全国碳市场即将建立的背景下,研究企业对于全国碳市场政策的预期,分析企业的响应规律,估算企业对于碳信用的支付意愿,对于保障全国碳市场的顺利建立和有效运行具有重要的意义。基于此,本研究利用多边界离散选择的方式,调查了全国范围内29个省市的555家企业,对于由于全国碳市场建立而导致的能源价格提高的接受程度,并利用多元线性回归模型分析影响企业接受程度的因素,最后估算企业对于碳市场中碳信用的支付意愿。结果显示:(1)企业可接受的能源价格提高比例的平均值为8.3%,其中碳试点企业可接受的提高比例最高,达到10.2%,非碳试点企业可接受的提高比例最低,为7.5%;(2)对企业接受程度的影响因素分析显示,企业的能源价格压力,以及企业对于全国碳市场到来的时间预期与接受程度显著负相关;企业对于碳减排技术的了解程度,以及企业对于全国碳市场控制程度的预期与接受程度显著正相关;(3)对于全国碳市场中的碳信用,企业平均愿意支付的价格为79.6元/t CO_2,其中碳试点企业的支付意愿最高,为95.9元/t CO_2,非碳试点企业的支付意愿最低,为72.6元/t CO_2。据此,为保障全国碳排放权交易市场的顺利建立,实现对企业碳排放的有效控制,政府应该注重降低企业的用能成本,引导与支持企业进行技术创新与升级,提高企业对于碳市场政策的认识和了解,并充分考虑不同地区的差异和不同企业的支付能力差别,合理设定碳价。     

规模效率和技术进步对CO2排放影响的实证

本文利用DEA的方法从全要素生产率中分解出规模效率、技术进步和纯技术效率三个指标,然后基于1998-2008年的省际面板数据分析了不同地区的工业规模效率及技术进步对CO2排放影响的程度及差异化的原因.研究结果显示:从总体来看,技术进步对单位GDP的CO2排放有抑制作用,而规模效率则与CO2排放呈正向关系,但各个地区的情况不同,东中部地区的技术进步对单位GDP的CO2排放起到了抑制作用,东北地区和西部地区的技术进步则对单位GDP的CO2排放起到了促进作用;东中部地区的规模效率对单位GDP CO2排放的影响程度要远小于东部地区和西部地区;产生这些差异的原因可能是与我国区域间技术进步与规模效率所属的种类不同有关,东部地区的技术进步可能属于节能型技术进步,而西部地区则属于耗能型的技术进步;东北地区和西部地区规模效率的提升可能更多地依靠能源消耗,中东部地区则有所改善.     

混合碳减排制度设计研究

碳减排是减缓气候变暖的必由之路,国际社会正在积极推动全球碳减排。我国已向国际社会承诺了碳减排目标,并正在大力开展相关政策的研究和制定。碳税和碳交易是多年来各国激励碳减排最主要的两大机制。这两种机制各有优缺点,它们适当的混合机制可扬长避短,创造出更优越的机制。我们认为,碳税和碳交易机制之间最大的差别在于碳税机制有较低的制度成本(包括建立者一机制所需要的人力物力的投入,以及监管成本等),在操作性上更简便;而在对市场条件和信息的变化上没有碳交易机制的灵活性强,但从另一方面,这种灵活性也恰恰是风险产生的根源之一,它增加了企业在碳排放决策方面的风险和难度;此外,碳税相对于碳交易是间接的碳减排激励机制,碳交易机制的减排效果更直接。基于这些观察,我们设计出一种混合碳减排机制,它是碳税和碳交易机制的有机结合。该混合机制包含两个部分:首先是累进制碳税制度,小企业只缴纳碳税;其次,碳交易制度,建立碳交易市场并对于大企业确定初始碳排放权,对于大企业的超排,将按照高起点的碳税税率加以惩罚。这一混合机制,既考虑了不同企业之间在碳排放权上的公平性,又考虑了机制的效率,并在保障机制效率的条件下尽可能降低企业在碳排放决策上的风险。这些正是这一混合机制的优越性所在。我们还探讨了这一混合机制在我国实施的可行性,并提出了在具体实施过程中所应注意的若干重要事项,并给出了相关的政策建议。本文的探讨可以为政府碳排放政策制定部门提供参考。     

中国碳减排承诺解读及碳交易发展研究

中国政府2009年末温室气体减排承诺的宣布,哥本哈根会议的召开,使得节能减排和碳交易问题成为大众关注的焦点。解读了中国的减排承诺,回顾了排污权交易和碳交易的发展,分析了排污权交易和碳交易面临的问题,并展望了国内碳交易市场的发展。认为中国现在制定的碳减排标准减少的是碳排放的增量,既是环境问题又是经济问题,今后减排目标会进一步细化。通过与发达国家相对成熟的碳市场对比,认为建立有效运营的国内碳交易市场的当务之急是抓紧交易配套资源的建设,如能耗监测系统、配套法律、相关人才培养等,使碳交易平台专业化,以主动掌握碳定价权。碳市场展望方面,认为国内碳市场有望随着各行业、地区减排目标的设定而逐步形成和发展     

CGE Simulation for Levying Carbon Tax in China and International Experience of Levying Carbon Tax

Levying carbon tax is conducive to reducing carbon dioxide emissions and protecting the environment.The author firstly reviewed some relevant empirical studies on carbon tax both home and abroad,and then established the CGE model and simulated levying carbon tax in China.The study found that levying carbon tax would have little impact on China’s economy:in a short-term,China’s GDP might decrease by 0.51%,while in a long-term it might decrease by 0.08%;however,the carbon dioxide emissions would be substantially reduced.Meanwhile,levying carbon tax has some negative impact on the output of each industry in the very economic structure;of this,the mineral extractive industries would be influenced the most.Then the author summarized experience of levying carbon tax in foreign countries.     

Global estimates of soil carbon sequestration via livestock waste: a STELLA simulation

It has become increasingly well documented that human activities are enhancing the greenhouse effect and altering the global climate. Identifying strategies to mitigate atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions on the national level are therefore critical. Fossil fuel combustion is primarily responsible for the perturbation of the global carbon cycle, although the influence of humans extends far beyond the combustion of fossil fuels. Changes in land use arising from human activities contribute substantially to atmospheric carbon dioxide; however, land use changes can act as a carbon dioxide sink as well. A soil carbon model was built using STELLA to explore how soil organic carbon sequestration (SOC) varies over a range of values for key parameters and to estimate the amount of global soil carbon sequestration from livestock waste. To obtain soil carbon sequestration estimates, model simulations occurred for 11 different livestock types and with data for eight regions around the world. The model predicted that between 1980 and 1995, United States soils were responsible for the sequestration of 444–602 Tg C from livestock waste. Model simulations further predicted that during the same period, global soil carbon sequestration from livestock waste was 2,810–4,218 Tg C. Our estimates for global SOC sequestration are modest in proportion to other terrestrial carbon sinks (i.e. forest regrowth); however, livestock waste does represent a potential for long-term soil carbon gain. SOC generated from livestock waste is another example of how human activities and land use changes are altering soil processes around the world. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Evaluation on the development degree of China’s seven pilot carbon markets

China is preparing to establish a nationwide carbon market in 2017, and in order to facilitate this goal, seven pilot carbon markets have been under study for the past few years. This paper summarizes the operation experience and challenges of the seven pilot carbon markets in China. It has been widely accepted that the essence of a carbon market is to solve environmental problems through market mechanisms, with environmental benefit being the fundamental purpose, market mechanism being the key measure, and policies and regulations being an important guarantee for an orderly carbon market. Therefore, this paper constructs an evaluation index system composed of 34 detailed sub-indexes in three dimensions, such as environmental constraint force, market resource allocation ability, and supporting policies and facility completeness. Through analyzing the operation data from 2013 to 2016, the weights of the sub-indexes are obtained. In addition, the study obtains experts’ opinions from over 10 carbon permits exchanges, consultancy firms and research institutions in China, and conducts a comprehensive evaluation on the development degree of the seven pilot carbon markets. Results show that the pilot carbon markets that include private SMEs as the covered entities for emissions control present relatively higher environmental constraint force. But too many covered entities could increase the difficulty of market performance management, while the pilots that include high energy-consuming state-owned enterprises as the entities for emissions control demonstrate a phenomenon of “high market compliance rate with low trading volume”. The resource allocation capability of China’s carbon market has not been effectively brought into play, and low degree of market participation has become an important constraint factor for market development. Due to the lack of laws and regulations at the national macro-level, the legally binding force of the pilot markets construction is obviously insufficient, and the supporting policies are lacking foresights. Generally, the development of China’s pilot carbon markets is still in such a fragmented state as in the aspects of environment, market and policy development, and the market operation has not yet achieved the purpose of solving environmental problems through market mechanisms. Accordingly, policy recommendations pointed out by this study are that tightening the allowance of free quota and progressively increasing the auction proportion, improving legal construction, increasing the services and products of carbon finance and standardizing the order of market transactions, enhancing capacity building of local governments and promoting the participation willingness and capability of emissions control entities, will be necessary.     

How does government environmental regulation “unlock” carbon emission effect?—evidence from China

ABSTRACT

The disordered emission of carbon dioxide is an important sign of market failure, making it a must to “unlock” the high emission effect of carbon dioxide by effective means. From the perspective of technological innovation, on the basis of the data of time series from 1985 to 2014 in Beijing, China, this article empirically analyzed the relationship between environmental regulation and carbon emissions through VAR model, impulse response function, and variance decomposition. It is concluded that in a short term, environmental regulation has an inhibitory effect on carbon emissions and technological innovation and has a positive effect on industrial structure. In a long term, environmental regulation can enhance the technological innovation and reduce the effect of carbon emissions, which may even eliminate it. Generally, environmental regulation and technological innovation have a greater impact on carbon dioxide emissions, while the industrial structure has a relatively small effect. Finally, the targeted countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.     

The Status Quo and Developing Trend Analysis of Global Carbon Finance

Abstract

This paper gives a systematic view of the new trends of global carbon finance innovation under the challenge of global climate change and in the process of transition to achieve economic growth from “high carbon” to ‘low carbon”, covering the following aspects: the structure, status quo and developing trend of global carbon market. The paper discusses the innovation in financial organization and service systems and governments’ overall guidance and policy support, and draws the conclusion that the world is undergoing massive changes with governments actively responding to carbon finance to embrace the tremendous opportunities for clean energy and climate change in financial industry. To seize the opportunity, a complete and overall carbon finance system of China should be put in the top of the agenda. Given the current tasks of energy conservation and pollution reduction and the growing demand for capital input, China needs to construct an clear of policy guidance, a diversified financia service system, and a multi-approach carbon finance system to intensify and widen the participation of financial industry, to expand financing channels for sustainable economy and spread risks, and finally, work out an inexpensive solution to the realization of China’s low carbon target.     

A study on the design of a hybrid policy for carbon abatement

A necessary way to mitigate global warming is carbon reduction, which the international community is now actively promoting. China has committed a target goal for carbon reduction to the international society, and has devoted a great effort toward researching the impact of related policies. Carbon taxation and carbon trading are the two main mechanisms to advocate carbon abatement, which many countries have been using. Each of these two mechanisms possesses advantages and disadvantages, and an appropriate combination of them can make best use of their advantages while bypassing their disadvantages, creating a superior mechanism. In our opinion, the main differences between these two mechanisms are that carbon taxation has a lower institution cost (consisting of the related infrastructural investment and the regulation cost, etc), and is easier to operate, but lacks the flexibility in response to variations of market conditions. However, this flexibility is just the origin of risk, which increases the difficulty for firms in their decision of carbon abatement and is an indirect way to incentivize carbon abatement, compared to carbon trading, which has a more direct effect in carbon reduction. Based on the above observation, we present a hybrid mechanism of carbon abatement, which is an organized combination of carbon taxation and carbon trading. It consists of two parts: first, the carbon taxation, which has a progressive tax rate, second, the carbon trading. Small firms will only pay the carbon tax, while large firms, will first need to get the initial carbon emission quotas by some way, and then trade it in the carbon market if necessary. For firms with extra emissions, they will receive a punishment according to a high carbon tax rate. This hybrid policy considers the equity between different firms in carbon emission rights as well as the efficiency of the mechanism while decreasing the risk level for firms in the carbon emission decision, making it superior to the two previous policies. We also analyze the feasibility of this hybrid policy in China, address some important issues in the implementation of this hybrid policy in China and present the relevant suggestions. The discussion in this paper can serve as a reference to the government in the decision of carbon policies.     

粤深碳交易试点机制剖析及对国家碳市场建设的启示

广东和深圳是中国第一批碳交易试点地区,具有全国碳交易机制试验田的属性,研究粤深碳交易试点机制运行经验对全国碳市场建设有重要的借鉴意义。对广东和深圳碳交易机制的关键要素进行剖析与比较发现,两地碳交易机制在覆盖范围、配额总量、分配方案、MRV机制等方面有较大的不同。这些差异来源于两个方面:第一,碳交易机制的排放管理设计特点(覆盖范围、配额总量、分配方案、MRV机制)取决于地方的区位条件和政策目标。粤深经济规模和结构差异较大,由此导致两地碳交易机制的管理对象不同,管理对象的行业特征又决定了其他管理要素必然随之发生变化。第二,碳市场运行状态受碳排放管理要素的影响:当配额总量较紧、允许使用的碳抵消比例低、惩罚严苛时,碳市场交易相对活跃,更容易催生碳金融等衍生品市场。在对粤深碳交易机制的运行情况和特点进行深入分析后,得到如下启示:1配额有偿分配制度应循序渐进地实施,收紧配额总量是关键。应根据碳交易机制对不同行业竞争力的影响程度确定免费配额的比例;2分配给企业的配额量与节能考核目标衔接,保持相关环境管理政策的一致性,减少制度摩擦;3正确处理由产量变化和经济波动对配额分配带来的影响,保持配额分配标准的公平与统一;4稳定公众预期是促进碳交易机制正常运行的关键要素之一;5对未纳入碳交易机制的碳排放行为进行约束,有助于实现社会公平;6提高企业与第三方机构相关人员的专业技能水平,增强碳排放数据可靠性。     

基于二次能源省际调配的中国分省CO2排放量计算

节能减排目标任务的制定需要依据科学合理的CO2排放量测算。现有的IPCC提供的CO2排放量计算方法仅考虑一次能源燃料所产生的CO2,未考虑到二次能源省际调配的情况,不能真实反映各省CO2排放情况。本研究提出了考虑二次能源省际调配情况下CO2排放量的计算方法,并以2009年的数据为例,对各省能源消费CO2排放量进行了计算。考虑二次能源省际调配后,传统的能源大省如内蒙古、山西的CO2排放总量下降,东部沿海省份的CO2排放总量上升。中西部地区的CO2排放强度仍显著高于东部地区。中西部地区存在能源利用效率低、能源加工技术设备落后的情况,导致了西部地区的CO2排放强度偏高。建议中央在实施西部大开发"十二五"规划时,应当加强对中西部地区能源加工行业的投资,改善能源加工技术,改良加工设备,提高能源加工效率,降低CO2排放强度。建议由能源调入省向能源调出省份实施补偿。该部分补偿资金用于调出省的能源产业升级改造,以顺利实现节能减排的目标。