Ecological connectivity of the marine protected area network in the Baltic Sea,Kattegat and Skagerrak: Current knowledge and management needs

Marine protected areas (MPAs) have become a key component of conservation and fisheries management to alleviate anthropogenic pressures. For MPA networks to efficiently promote persistence and recovery of populations, ecological connectivity, i.e. dispersal and movement of organisms and material across ecosystems, needs to be taken into account. To improve the ecological coherence of MPA networks, there is hence a need to evaluate the connectivity of species spreading through active migration and passive dispersal. We reviewed knowledge on ecological connectivity in the Baltic Sea, Kattegat and Skagerrak in the northeast Atlantic and present available information on species-specific dispersal and migration distances. Studies on genetic connectivity are summarised and discussed in relation to dispersal-based analyses. Threats to ecological connectivity, limiting dispersal of populations and lowering the resilience to environmental change, were examined. Additionally, a review of studies evaluating the ecological coherence of MPA networks in the Baltic Sea, Kattegat and Skagerrak was performed, and suggestions for future evaluations to meet management needs are presented.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01684-x.     

Operationalizing ecosystem service bundles for strategic sustainability planning: A participatory approach

The ecosystem service concept is recognized as a useful tool to support sustainability in decision-making. In this study, we collaborated with actors in the Helge å catchment, southern Sweden, in an iterative participatory ecosystem service assessment. Through workshops and interviews, we jointly decided which ecosystem services to assess and indicators to use in order to achieve a sense of ownership and a higher legitimacy of the assessment. Subsequently, we explored the landscape-level interactions between the 15 assessed services, and found that the area can be described using three distinct ecosystem service bundles. The iterative, participatory process strengthened our analysis and created a shared understanding and overview of the multifunctional landscape around Helge å among participants. Importantly, this allowed for the generated knowledge to impact local strategic sustainability planning. With this study, we illustrate how similar processes can support local decision-making for a more sustainable future.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01378-w) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Estimating contaminant mass discharge: a field comparison of the multilevel point measurement and the integral pumping investigation approaches and their uncertainties

In this field study, two approaches to assess contaminant mass discharge were compared: the sampling of multilevel wells (MLS) and the integral groundwater investigation (or integral pumping test, IPT) that makes use of the concentration-time series obtained from pumping wells. The MLS approached used concentrations, hydraulic conductivity and gradient rather than direct chemical flux measurements, while the IPT made use of a simplified analytical inversion. The two approaches were applied at a control plane located approximately 40m downgradient of a gasoline source at Canadian Forces Base Borden, Ontario, Canada. The methods yielded similar estimates of the mass discharging across the control plane. The sources of uncertainties in the mass discharge in each approach were evaluated, including the uncertainties inherent in the underlying assumptions and procedures. The maximum uncertainty of the MLS method was about 67%, and about 28% for the IPT method in this specific field situation. For the MLS method, the largest relative uncertainty (62%) was attributed to the limited sampling density (0.63 points/m(2)), through a novel comparison with a denser sampling grid nearby. A five-fold increase of the sampling grid density would have been required to reduce the overall relative uncertainty for the MLS method to about the same level as that for the IPT method. Uncertainty in the complete coverage of the control plane provided the largest relative uncertainty (37%) in the IPT method. While MLS or IPT methods to assess contaminant mass discharge are attractive assessment tools, the large relative uncertainty in either method found for this reasonable well monitored and simple aquifer suggests that results in more complex plumes in more heterogeneous aquifers should be viewed with caution.     

Food web assessments in the Baltic Sea: Models bridging the gap between indicators and policy needs

Ecosystem-based management requires understanding of food webs. Consequently, assessment of food web status is mandatory according to the European Union’s Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) for EU Member States. However, how to best monitor and assess food webs in practise has proven a challenging question. Here, we review and assess the current status of food web indicators and food web models, and discuss whether the models can help addressing current shortcomings of indicator-based food web assessments, using the Baltic Sea as an example region. We show that although the MSFD food web assessment was designed to use food web indicators alone, they are currently poorly fit for the purpose, because they lack interconnectivity of trophic guilds. We then argue that the multiple food web models published for this region have a high potential to provide additional coherence to the definition of good environmental status, the evaluation of uncertainties, and estimates for unsampled indicator values, but we also identify current limitations that stand in the way of more formal implementation of this approach. We close with a discussion of which current models have the best capacity for this purpose in the Baltic Sea, and of the way forward towards the combination of measurable indicators and modelling approaches in food web assessments. Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01692-x.     

Forests in common: Learning from diversity of community forest arrangements in Europe

Europe has a wealth of community forest arrangements. This paper aims to transcend the diversity of locally specific terms and forms, to highlight the value of considering them inclusively. Building on methods to make sense of diversity, we use reflexive grounded inquiry in fifteen cases in Italy, Scotland, Slovenia and Sweden. Within four dimensions (forest, community, relationships between them, and relationships with wider society), we identify 43 subdimensions to describe them collectively. Our approach shows how European arrangements contribute to wider discourses of collective natural resource management. Both tradition and innovation in Europe inform options for environmental governance. Arrangements challenge the distinction between ‘communities of place’ and ‘communities of interest’, with implications for social and environmental justice. They exemplify multilevel environmental governance through both vertical and horizontal connections. Emerging from long histories of political and environmental pressures, they have a role in enhancing society’s connection with nature and adaptive capacity.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01377-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorised users.     

Minimax Regret Analysis for Municipal Solid Waste Management: An Interval-Stochastic Programming Approach

Abstract

In this study, an interval minimax regret programming (IMMRP) method is developed for the planning of municipal solid waste (MSW) management under uncertainty. It improves on the existing interval programming and minimax regret analysis methods by allowing uncertainties presented as both intervals and random variables to be effectively communicated into the optimization process. The IMMRP can account for economic consequences under all possible scenarios without any assumption on their probabilities. The developed method is applied to a case study of long-term MSW management planning under uncertainty. Multiple scenarios associated with different cost and risk levels are analyzed. Reasonable solutions are generated, demonstrating complex tradeoffs among system cost, regret level, and system-failure risk. The method can also facilitate examination of the difference between the cost incurred with identified strategy and the least cost under an ideal condition. The results can help determine desired plans and policies for waste management under a variety of uncertainties.     

Incorporating stakeholders’ preferences into a multi-criteria framework for planning large-scale Nature-Based Solutions

Hydro-meteorological risks are a growing issue for societies, economies and environments around the world. An effective, sustainable response to such risks and their future uncertainty requires a paradigm shift in our research and practical efforts. In this respect, Nature-Based Solutions (NBSs) offer the potential to achieve a more effective and flexible response to hydro-meteorological risks while also enhancing human well-being and biodiversity. The present paper describes a new methodology that incorporates stakeholders’ preferences into a multi-criteria analysis framework, as part of a tool for selecting risk mitigation measures. The methodology has been applied to Tamnava river basin in Serbia and Nangang river basin in Taiwan within the EC-funded RECONECT project. The results highlight the importance of involving stakeholders in the early stages of projects in order to achieve successful implementation of NBSs. The methodology can assist decision-makers in formulating desirable benefits and co-benefits and can enable a systematic and transparent NBSs planning process.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01419-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Living with floating vegetation invasions

Invasions of water bodies by floating vegetation, including water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes), are a huge global problem for fisheries, hydropower generation, and transportation. We analyzed floating plant coverage on 20 reservoirs across the world’s tropics and subtropics, using > 30 year time-series of LANDSAT remote-sensing imagery. Despite decades of costly weed control, floating invasion severity is increasing. Floating plant coverage correlates with expanding urban land cover in catchments, implicating urban nutrient sources as plausible drivers. Floating vegetation invasions have undeniable societal costs, but also provide benefits. Water hyacinths efficiently absorb nutrients from eutrophic waters, mitigating nutrient pollution problems. When washed up on shores, plants may become compost, increasing soil fertility. The biomass is increasingly used as a renewable biofuel. We propose a more nuanced perspective on these invasions moving away from futile eradication attempts towards an ecosystem management strategy that minimizes negative impacts while integrating potential social and environmental benefits.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01360-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Estimating and comparing greenhouse gas emissions with their uncertainties using different methods: A case study for an energy supply utility

Energy supply utilities release significant amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere. It is essential to accurately estimate GHG emissions with their uncertainties, for reducing GHG emissions and mitigating climate change. GHG emissions can be calculated by an activity-based method (i.e., fuel consumption) and continuous emission measurement (CEM). In this study, GHG emissions such as CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O are estimated for a heat generation utility, which uses bituminous coal as fuel, by applying both the activity-based method and CEM. CO₂ emissions by the activity-based method are 12–19% less than that by the CEM, while N₂O and CH₄ emissions by the activity-based method are two orders of magnitude and 60% less than those by the CEM, respectively. Comparing GHG emissions (as CO₂ equivalent) from both methods, total GHG emissions by the activity-based methods are 12–27% lower than that by the CEM, as CO₂ and N₂O emissions are lower than those by the CEM. Results from uncertainty estimation show that uncertainties in the GHG emissions by the activity-based methods range from 3.4% to about 20%, from 67% to 900%, and from about 70% to about 200% for CO₂, N₂O, and CH₄, respectively, while uncertainties in the GHG emissions by the CEM range from 4% to 4.5%. For the activity-based methods, an uncertainty in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) default net calorific value (NCV) is the major uncertainty contributor to CO₂ emissions, while an uncertainty in the IPCC default emission factor is the major uncertainty contributor to CH₄ and N₂O emissions. For the CEM, an uncertainty in volumetric flow measurement, especially for the distribution of the volumetric flow rate in a stack, is the major uncertainty contributor to all GHG emissions, while uncertainties in concentration measurements contribute a little to uncertainties in the GHG emissions.

Implications:Energy supply utilities contribute a significant portion of the global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It is important to accurately estimate GHG emissions with their uncertainties for reducing GHG emissions and mitigating climate change. GHG emissions can be estimated by an activity-based method and by continuous emission measurement (CEM), yet little study has been done to calculate GHG emissions with uncertainty analysis. This study estimates GHG emissions and their uncertainties, and also identifies major uncertainty contributors for each method.     

Assessing and managing freshwater ecosystems vulnerable to environmental change

Freshwater ecosystems are important for global biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services. There is consensus in the scientific literature that freshwater ecosystems are vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change, which may trigger irreversible regime shifts upon which biodiversity and ecosystem services may be lost. There are profound uncertainties regarding the management and assessment of the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to environmental change. Quantitative approaches are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We describe available statistical and modeling approaches along with case studies that demonstrate how resilience theory can be applied to aid decision-making in natural resources management. We highlight especially how long-term monitoring efforts combined with ecological theory can provide a novel nexus between ecological impact assessment and management, and the quantification of systemic vulnerability and thus the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change.     

The missing pieces for better future predictions in subarctic ecosystems: A Torneträsk case study

Arctic and subarctic ecosystems are experiencing substantial changes in hydrology, vegetation, permafrost conditions, and carbon cycling, in response to climatic change and other anthropogenic drivers, and these changes are likely to continue over this century. The total magnitude of these changes results from multiple interactions among these drivers. Field measurements can address the overall responses to different changing drivers, but are less capable of quantifying the interactions among them. Currently, a comprehensive assessment of the drivers of ecosystem changes, and the magnitude of their direct and indirect impacts on subarctic ecosystems, is missing. The Torneträsk area, in the Swedish subarctic, has an unrivalled history of environmental observation over 100 years, and is one of the most studied sites in the Arctic. In this study, we summarize and rank the drivers of ecosystem change in the Torneträsk area, and propose research priorities identified, by expert assessment, to improve predictions of ecosystem changes. The research priorities identified include understanding impacts on ecosystems brought on by altered frequency and intensity of winter warming events, evapotranspiration rates, rainfall, duration of snow cover and lake-ice, changed soil moisture, and droughts. This case study can help us understand the ongoing ecosystem changes occurring in the Torneträsk area, and contribute to improve predictions of future ecosystem changes at a larger scale. This understanding will provide the basis for the future mitigation and adaptation plans needed in a changing climate.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01381-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Design and Verification of a Programmable Gas Dispensing System for Exposing Plants to Dynamic Concentrations of Air Pollutants

Abstract

Landfills represent a source of distributed emissions source over an irregular and heterogeneous surface. In the method termed “Other Test Method-10” (OTM-10), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has proposed a method to quantify emissions from such sources by the use of vertical radial plume mapping (VRPM) techniques combined with measurement of wind speed to determine the average emission flux per unit area per time from nonpoint sources. In such application, the VRPM is used as a tool to estimate the mass of the gas of interest crossing a vertical plane. This estimation is done by fitting the field-measured concentration spatial data to a Gaussian or some other distribution to define a plume crossing the vertical plane. When this technique is applied to landfill surfaces, the VRPM plane may be within the emitting source area itself. The objective of this study was to investigate uncertainties associated with using OTM-10 for landfills. The spatial variability of emission in the emitting domain can lead to uncertainties of –34 to 190% in the measured flux value when idealistic scenarios were simulated. The level of uncertainty might be higher when the number and locations of emitting sources are not known (typical field conditions). The level of uncertainty can be reduced by improving the layout of the VRPM plane in the field in accordance with an initial survey of the emission patterns. The change in wind direction during an OTM-10 testing setup can introduce an uncertainty of 20% of the measured flux value. This study also provides estimates of the area contributing to flux (ACF) to be used in conjunction with OTM-10 procedures. The estimate of ACF is a function of the atmospheric stability class and has an uncertainty of 10–30%.     

Combined effects of human pressures on Europe’s marine ecosystems

Marine ecosystems are under high demand for human use, giving concerns about how pressures from human activities may affect their structure, function, and status. In Europe, recent developments in mapping of marine habitats and human activities now enable a coherent spatial evaluation of potential combined effects of human activities. Results indicate that combined effects from multiple human pressures are spread to 96% of the European marine area, and more specifically that combined effects from physical disturbance are spread to 86% of the coastal area and 46% of the shelf area. We compare our approach with corresponding assessments at other spatial scales and validate our results with European-scale status assessments for coastal waters. Uncertainties and development points are identified. Still, the results suggest that Europe’s seas are widely disturbed, indicating potential discrepancy between ambitions for Blue Growth and the objective of achieving good environmental status within the Marine Strategy Framework Directive.Supplementary informationThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01482-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Between uncertainty and hope: Young leaders as agents of change in sustainable small-scale fisheries

The path to sustainable small-scale fisheries (SSF) is based on multiple learning processes that must transcend generational changes. To understand young leaders from communities with sustainable SSF management practices in Mexico, we used in-depth interviews to identify their shared motivations and perceptions for accepting their fishing heritage. These possible future decision-makers act as agents of change due to their organizational and technological abilities. However, young people are currently at a crossroads. Many inherited a passion for the sea and want to improve and diversify the fishing sector, yet young leaders do not want to accept a legacy of complicated socioenvironmental conditions that can limit their futures. These future leaders are especially concerned by the uncertainty caused by climate change. If fishing and generational change are not valued in planning processes, the continuity of fisheries, the success of conservation actions, and the lifestyles of young fishers will remain uncertain.Graphical abstract Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01639-2.     

Monitoring groundwater contamination and delineating source zones at industrial sites: uncertainty analyses using integral pumping tests

Field-scale characterisations of contaminant plumes in groundwater, as well as source zone delineations, are associated with uncertainties that can be considerable. A major source of uncertainty in environmental datasets is due to variability of sampling results, as a direct consequence of the heterogeneity of environmental matrices. We develop a methodology for quantifying uncertainties in field-scale mass flow and average concentration estimations, using integral pumping tests (IPTs), where the contaminant concentration is measured as a function of time in a pumping well. This procedure increases the sampling volume and reduces the effect of small-scale variability that may bias point-scale measurements. In particular, using IPTs, the interpolation uncertainty of conventional point-scale measurements is transformed to a quantifiable uncertainty related to the (unknown) plume position relative to the pumping well. We show that this plume position uncertainty generally influenced the predicted mass flows and average concentrations (of acenapthene, benzene and CHCs) to a greater extent than a boundary condition uncertainty related to the local water balance, considering 19 control planes at a highly heterogeneous industrial site in southwest Germany. Furthermore, large (order of magnitude) uncertainties only occurred if the conditions were strongly heterogeneous in the nearest vicinity of the well. We also develop a consistent methodology for an assessment of the combined effect of uncertainty in hydraulic conditions and uncertainty in reactive transport parameters for delimiting of both contaminant source zones and zones absent of source, based on (downgradient) IPTs.     

Hydromorphological and socio-cultural assessment of urban rivers to promote nature-based solutions in Jarabacoa,Dominican Republic

In Latin America and the Caribbean, river restoration projects are increasing, but many lack strategic planning and monitoring. We tested the applicability of a rapid visual social–ecological stream assessment method for restoration planning, complemented by a citizen survey on perceptions and uses of blue and green infrastructure. We applied the method at three urban streams in Jarabacoa (Dominican Republic) to identify and prioritize preferred areas for nature-based solutions. The method provides spatially explicit information for strategic river restoration planning, and its efficiency makes it suitable for use in data-poor contexts. It identifies well-preserved, moderately altered, and critically impaired areas regarding their hydromorphological and socio-cultural conditions, as well as demands on green and blue infrastructure. The transferability of the method can be improved by defining reference states for assessing the hydromorphology of tropical rivers, refining socio-cultural parameters to better address river services and widespread urban challenges, and balancing trade-offs between ecological and social restoration goals.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01565-3.     

Potential for cascading impacts of environmental change and policy on indigenous culture

Global environmental and societal changes threaten the cultures of indigenous peoples and local communities (IPLC). Despite the importance of IPLC worldviews and knowledge to sustaining human well-being and biodiversity, risks to these cultural resources are commonly neglected in environmental governance, in part because impacts can be indirect and therefore difficult to evaluate. Here, we investigate the connectivity of values associated with the relationship Ngātiwai (a New Zealand Māori tribe) have with their environment. We show that mapping the architecture of values-environment relationships enables assessment of how deep into culture the impacts of environmental change or policy can cascade. Our results detail how loss of access to key environmental elements could potentially have extensive direct and cascading impacts on the cultural values of Ngātiwai, including environmental responsibilities. Thus, considering only direct effects of environmental change or policy on cultural resources, or treating IPLC social-ecological relations simplistically, can severely underestimate threats to cultures.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01670-3.     

Edible Protein Energy Return on Investment Ratio (ep-EROI) for Spanish Seafood Products

Life cycle assessment (LCA) has developed into a useful methodology to assess energy consumption of fishing fleets and their derived seafood products, as well as the associated environmental burdens. In this study, however, the life cycle inventory data is used to provide a dimensionless ratio between energy inputs and the energy provided by the fish: the edible protein energy return on investment (ep-EROI). The main objective was to perform a critical comparison of seafood products landed in Galicia (NW Spain) in terms of ep-EROI. The combination of energy return on investment (EROI) with LCA, the latter having standardized mechanisms regarding data acquisition and system boundary delimitation, allowed a reduction of uncertainties in EROI estimations. Results allow a deeper understanding of the energy efficiency in the Galician fishing sector, showing that small pelagic species present the highest ep-EROI values if captured using specific fishing techniques. Finally, results are expected to provide useful guidelines for policy support in the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-013-0426-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

I-C-SEA Change: A participatory tool for rapid assessment of vulnerability of tropical coastal communities to climate change impacts

We present a synoptic, participatory vulnerability assessment tool to help identify the likely impacts of climate change and human activity in coastal areas and begin discussions among stakeholders on the coping and adaptation measures necessary to minimize these impacts. Vulnerability assessment tools are most needed in the tropical Indo-Pacific, where burgeoning populations and inequitable economic growth place even greater burdens on natural resources and support ecosystems. The Integrated Coastal Sensitivity, Exposure, and Adaptive Capacity for Climate Change (I-C-SEA Change) tool is built around a series of scoring rubrics to guide non-specialists in assigning scores to the sensitivity and adaptive capacity components of vulnerability, particularly for coral reef, seagrass, and mangrove habitats, along with fisheries and coastal integrity. These scores are then weighed against threat or exposure to climate-related impacts such as marine flooding and erosion. The tool provides opportunities for learning by engaging more stakeholders in participatory planning and group decision-making. It also allows for information to be collated and processed during a “town-hall” meeting, facilitating further discussion, data validation, and even interactive scenario building.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0652-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Fine Particulate Matter Emissions Inventories: Comparisons of Emissions Estimates with Observations from Recent Field Programs

Abstract

Emissions inventories of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) were compared with estimates of emissions based on data emerging from U.S. Environment Protection Agency Particulate Matter Supersites and other field programs. Six source categories for PM_2.5 emissions were reviewed: on-road mobile sources, nonroad mobile sources, cooking, biomass combustion, fugitive dust, and stationary sources. Ammonia emissions from all of the source categories were also examined. Regional emissions inventories of PM in the exhaust from on-road and nonroad sources were generally consistent with ambient observations, though uncertainties in some emission factors were twice as large as the emission factors. In contrast, emissions inventories of road dust were up to an order of magnitude larger than ambient observations, and estimated brake wear and tire dust emissions were half as large as ambient observations in urban areas. Although comprehensive nationwide emissions inventories of PM_2.5 from cooking sources and biomass burning are not yet available, observational data in urban areas suggest that cooking sources account for approximately 5–20% of total primary emissions (excluding dust), and biomass burning sources are highly dependent on region. Finally, relatively few observational data were available to assess the accuracy of emission estimates for stationary sources. Overall, the uncertainties in primary emissions for PM_2.5 are substantial. Similar uncertainties exist for ammonia emissions. Because of these uncertainties, the design of PM_2.5 control strategies should be based on inventories that have been refined by a combination of bottom-up and top-down methods.