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介绍了Petri网的主要分析方法,概述了Petri网的发展历程及研究现状,分析了Petri网仿真研究方法。 相似文献
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为研究机械结构可靠性设计与仿真方法。本文基于应力-强度干涉模型,应用响应面法(RSM),充分考虑结构分析中各参数的随机分布特性,利用ANSYS-PDS模块对法兰进行结构可靠性仿真。仿真结果显示,在进行10000次循环模拟计算后,法兰的结构可靠度为92.9%,灵敏度分析显示屈服极限与压力对可靠性影响最大。证明基于响应面法的可靠性分析方法为机械结构优化及可靠性计算提供指导,具有一定的工程应用价值。 相似文献
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福建省经济系统物质流分析研究 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
运用物质流分析(MFA)方法,对福建省经济系统在1990~2008年间的物质输入与输出进行系统地分析,探讨了福建省经济发展与环境压力的关系。研究结果表明,福建省"资源高投入"的粗放型经济发展模式没有实现根本转变。主要结论有:(1)福建省物质输入量不断上升,能源需求急剧增长;(2)隐藏流不断增加,矿产资源地生态包袱不断增大;(3)区域过程排放缓慢上升,大气污染物排放为主要推动因子;(4)物质需求强度有反弹趋势,经济发展与物质需求出现扩张性"复钩"。最后,对福建省经济可持续发展提出了大力提高资源能源利用率、推进循环经济发展、优化产业结构、继续强化环境综合整治等建议。 相似文献
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产业共生网络是通过物料、能源或信息等的传递所形成的企业间复杂的合作共生关系网络。由于受各种内外部因素的影响,产业共生网络一直处于不断发展演变中。研究产业共生网络演化,对破解工业园区资源与环境瓶颈、推动园区可持续发展具有重要的意义。我国工业园区经过数十年的快速发展,已初步形成了基于园区尺度的产业共生网络。本文对产业共生网络的形成及发展现状进行总结,分析了产业共生网络演化的驱动力及影响因素,并对现有的产业共生网络研究方法进行综述,对比与评价了不同建模方法的建模思路及优劣势。基于此,提出了未来研究与实践中需要突破的关键问题,建议继续拓展产业共生的研究范围,加强对产业共生网络演化仿真及可持续性评估的研究,从而为工业园区规划与管理提供可预测的、量化的指导工具。 相似文献
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Modeling flood induced interdependencies among hydroelectricity generating infrastructures 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper presents a new kind of integrated modeling method for simulating the vulnerability of a critical infrastructure for a hazard and the subsequent interdependencies among the interconnected infrastructures. The developed method has been applied to a case study of a network of hydroelectricity generating infrastructures, e.g., water storage concrete gravity dam, penstock, power plant and transformer substation. The modeling approach is based on the fragility curves development with Monte Carlo simulation based structural–hydraulic modeling, flood frequency analysis, stochastic Petri net (SPN) modeling, and Markov Chain analysis. A certain flood level probability can be predicted from flood frequency analysis, and the most probable damage condition for this hazard can be simulated from the developed fragility curves of the dam. Consequently, the resulting interactions among the adjacent infrastructures can be quantified with SPN analysis; corresponding Markov Chain analysis simulates the long term probability matrix of infrastructure failures. The obtained results are quite convincing to prove the novel contribution of this research to the field of infrastructure interdependency analysis which might serve as a decision making tool for flood related emergency response and management. 相似文献
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In China, the rapid development of the polyvinylchloride (PVC) industry will inevitably lead to various environmental problems. This paper studies the PVC metabolism further by (1) constructing dynamic models based on material flow analysis (MFA), (2) introducing calculation on detailed lifetime distribution of different types of products and recycling, and (3) obtaining the performances of waste emissions and accumulation as a function of raw material input and time. Based on system evolution theory and population development models, the developing trend of the PVC industry is studied, and annual consumptions in future years are predicted. The annual emission and accumulation after metabolism can be calculated by tracking the amount of raw material input, existing form and process flow for a single year (2003), as well as over a longer period (from 1958 to 2048) in China. Analysis indicates that over 0.6 billion tons of PVC waste will have accumulated in the environment by the end of 2050. In this scenario analysis, the effects of product structure, lifetime distribution, mechanical recycling, chemical recycling and incineration on waste output are all taken into consideration. The product metabolism process can be decelerated by changing these factors appropriately. However, mechanical recycling and chemical recycling are the most effective solutions. 相似文献
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Uncertainty Analysis In Dissolved Oxygen Modeling in Streams 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Uncertainty analysis in surface water quality modeling is an important issue. This paper presents a method based on the first-order reliability method (FORM) to assess the exceedance probability of a target dissolved oxygen concentration in a stream, using a Streeter–Phelps prototype model. Basic uncertainty in the input parameters is considered by representing them as random variables with prescribed probability distributions. Results obtained from FORM analysis compared well with those of the Monte Carlo simulation method. The analysis also presents the stochastic sensitivity of the probabilistic outcome in the form of uncertainty importance factors, and shows how they change with changing simulation time. Furthermore, a parametric sensitivity analysis was conducted to show the effect of selection of different probability distribution functions for the three most important parameters on the design point, exceedance probability, and importance factors.
Note: This version was published online in June 2005 with the cover date of August 2004. 相似文献
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ABSTRACT: A novel approach has been developed by applying queueing theory to hydrologic modeling. A queueing situation is characterized by a flow of customers arriving randomly at one or more service facilities. In this case, the customers are represented by water and the service time is the time it takes to move through the soil and over the land. This approach has the potential to be simpler and more efficient than some previously developed models. Another important attribute of queueing theory is its ability to model almost unlimited detail. Many simulation languages based on queueing theory have been developed and tested and are available. Applications of the languages include manufacturing operations, transportation systems, computer systems, financial planning, and health care systems. A model was developed, using a simulation language, to predict runoff hydrographs from storms occurring on small homogeneous watersheds. With continued development, queueing theory could provide an effident, detailed approach to simulating many natural processes. 相似文献
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Franois Laurent Wolfram Anker Didier Graillot 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1998,34(1):123-134
ABSTRACT: A method for water resources protection based on spatial variability of vulnerability is proposed. The vulnerability of a water resource is defined as the risk that the resource will become contaminated if a pollutant is placed on the surface at one point as compared to another. A spatial modelling method is defined in this paper to estimate a travel time between any point of a catchment and a resource (river or well). This method is based on spatial analysis tools integrated in Geographical Information Systems (GIS). The method is illustrated by an application to an area of Massif Central (France) where three different types of flow appear: surface flow, shallow subsurface flow, and permanent ground water flow (baseflow). The proposed method gives results similar to classical methods of estimation of travel time. The contribution of GIS is to improve the mapping of vulnerability by taking the spatial variability of physical phenomena into account. 相似文献
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An approach to optimise nutrient management in environmental sanitation systems despite limited data
The material flow analysis method can be used to assess the impact of environmental sanitation systems on resource consumption and environmental pollution. However, given the limited access to reliable data, application of this data-intensive method in developing countries may be difficult. This paper presents an approach allowing to develop material flow models despite limited data availability. Application of an iterative procedure is of key importance: model parameter values should first be assessed on the basis of a literature review and by eliciting expert judgement. If model outputs are not plausible, sensitive input parameters should be reassessed more accurately. Moreover, model parameters can be expressed as probability distributions and variable uncertainty estimated by using Monte Carlo simulation. The impact of environmental sanitation systems on the phosphorus load discharged into surface water in Hanoi, Vietnam, is simulated by applying the proposed approach. 相似文献
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An ecological perspective on theory, methods, and analysis in environmental psychology: Advances and challenges 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Over the course of environmental psychology's brief history, there has been an interest in ecologically oriented approaches to theory and research. Based on this work, this paper identifies a set of six principles of ecological analysis that present theoretical, methodological, and analytic challenges to future research in environmental psychology. These challenges include the theoretical treatment of the multiple contexts within which human experience and behavior occurs, the need for sampling both persons and environments, the modeling of moderating and mediating processes, the issue of self-selection into and out of different settings, the necessity of considering temporal factors in environmental research, reliance on single methods (e.g., verbal report) in data generation, cross-sectional and longitudinal research designs, and the need for greater use of statistical techniques developed for contextual (multi-level) research. These issues are discussed and illustrated using recent developments in environmentally oriented research. The paper concludes with a set of 11 recommendations for the future. 相似文献