鄱阳湖洪灾特征与圩区还湖减灾运用方式研究

根据水文资料,分析了鄱阳湖入湖五大河流来水与长江水情对鄱阳湖洪灾的影响和鄱阳湖洪水位的频率特征,探讨了湖区中小圩区"高水还湖滞洪,低水种植养殖"的减灾运行方式对湖区防洪减灾可以起到的作用。     

1998年中国洪灾与减灾对策

分析了 1998年中国洪灾的原因 ,并提出了相应的防灾、减灾对策     

浙江省梅汛期降水与洪涝灾害的长期变化

梅汛期降水是引发浙江省洪涝灾害的重要原因之一.首先,应用相关分析,对浙江省境内57个气象观测站29年来(1971-1999)梅汛期降水的空间分布特征进行了分析,论述了省内不同地区梅汛期降水的长期变化规律.分析发现,这一时期的梅汛期降水明显呈现缓慢增加的趋势,并有着6年和3-4年的显著周期,这说明梅汛期降水可能与ENSO存在着一定的联系.最后,探讨了梅汛期降水异常与洪涝灾害之间的关系.     

浙江省洪涝灾害的统计分析

根据浙江省1949－1998年（缺1966－1975年及1978年）共39年的洪涝成灾面积资料及39年（1961－1999年）的36个站点的分季降水资料，对该省洪涝灾害进行了统计分析。分析表明，浙江洪涝灾害面积大，且有随时间而增加的趋势，此外，不同地区表现为不同的受灾特征，浙江省应该对不同地区采取不同的减灾防灾措施，因地制宜，减少水患的经济损失。     

洪涝灾害评价的威布尔模型

首次将威布尔分布用于淮河流域水灾成灾面积研究,揭示了淮河流域洪涝灾害成灾面积形成的 内在规律,进而利用河南、安徽、江苏和山东4省的各自灾度对淮河流域的灾害风险建立了线性回归模型.实证分析表明,本方法切实可行,特别适用于大样本计算.     

浙江省梅汛期洪涝灾情分析和预测

通过所构设的雨涝强度、雨涝影响面积等统计量来估计浙江省梅汛期的灾情,有较高的准确率,能估计出极端情况,为灾害评估工作提供了新的思路。     

The impact of disasters on small business disaster planning: a case study

A major flood in 1997 forced the evacuation of Grand Forks, North Dakota and caused damage of USD 1 billion. Despite this recent disaster there is only marginal evidence of an increase in disaster recovery planning by businesses that experienced the flood. This finding is consistent with the results of other business-related disaster research. Statistical tests of survey results from 2003 indicate that there is a significantly higher rate of disaster recovery planning in businesses started since the 1997 flood than in businesses started before the flood and still in business. Such an outcome indicates a need for public policy actions emphasizing the importance of disaster planning. Improved disaster planning is an aid to business recovery and the results demonstrate the need for more widespread efforts to improve disaster recovery planning on the part of smaller businesses, even in areas that have recently experienced disasters.     

建立洪水灾情等级模型的实用方案

为检验已订的洪水灾情等级标准的合理性,提出了一种新的洪水灾情模型－逻辑斯谛曲线（ＬＯＧ）模型,它的灾级是连续的实数值。根据ＬＯＧ模型参数值可以分析各灾情指标值对灾级的影响程度,从而检验原订灾级标准的合理性;并给出了基于实码遗传算法的ＬＯＧ建模的实施方案。实例研究说明了这套方案是实用和通用的,在其它灾情等级评估中也具有广泛的应用价值。     

防洪减灾观念的理论进展--灾害双重属性概念及其科学哲学基础

提出灾害的双重属性概念,是国际减灾十年活动中的重要理论进展之一,已被国家防洪减灾主管部门所采纳,被认为是防洪减灾方针转变的理论基础.作者总结了多年来的研究心得,论述了灾害双重属性概念的实质,以及它和工程与非工程相结合的减灾措施之异同.论述了这个科学概念系来源于我国传统治水理念和西方现代防洪减灾思想,并阐述了这一概念的科学和哲学基础.     

Health and social impacts of a flood disaster: responding to needs and implications for practice

Carlisle in northwest England suffered its worse floods for more than 180 years in 2005. A study, reported here, was undertaken to assess the health and social impacts of these floods via in‐depth, taped individual and focus‐group interviews with people whose homes had been flooded and with agency workers who helped them. Respondents spoke of physical health ailments, psychological stress, water health‐and‐safety issues related to the floods, and disputes with insurance and construction companies, which they felt had caused and exacerbated psychological health problems. Support workers also suffered from psychological stress. Furthermore, it was found that people had low expectations of a flood and were not prepared. The findings are presented in five sections covering flood risk awareness, water contamination issues, physical health, mental health, and impact on frontline support workers. The discussion focuses on the implications of the findings for policy and practice vis‐à‐vis psychological health provision, contamination issues, training and support for frontline support workers, matters relating to restoration, and preparation for flooding.     

我国重大气候灾害特征、形成机理和预测研究

简要地介绍了我国气候灾害的种类、时空分布特征及其造成的经济损失；并从东亚气候系统海一陆- 气相互作用的观点，结合１９９８年夏季长江、松花江和嫩江流域特大洪涝发生的具体实例分析了我国气候灾害发生的主要原因；此外，还回顾了目前我国气候预测的实际情况。提出了关于气候灾害预测研究中急待解决的几个问题．     

An analysis of the causes and circumstances of flood disaster deaths

The objective of this paper is to investigate and to improve understanding of the causes and circumstances of flood disaster deaths. A standardised method of classifying flood deaths is proposed and the difficulties associated with comparing and assessing existing information on flood deaths are discussed. Thirteen flood cases from Europe and the United States, resulting in 247 flood disaster fatalities, were analysed and taken as indicative of flood disaster deaths. Approximately two-thirds of the deaths occurred through drowning. Thus, a substantial number of flood disaster fatalities are not related to drowning. Furthermore, males are highly vulnerable to dying in floods and unnecessary risk-taking behaviour contributes significantly to flood disaster deaths. Based on these results, recommendations are made to prevent loss of life in floods. To provide a more solid basis for the formulation of prevention strategies, better systematic recording of flood fatalities is suggested, especially those caused by different types of floods in all countries.     

浙江“99630”特大洪水中水利工程的防洪减灾作用

1999年梅雨期间,浙北的杭嘉湖地区和新安江流域发生了百年未遇的洪灾-“99630”特大洪水。这次洪水的降雨、水位都超过历史记录。在特大灾害面前,各级防汛部门精心调度,正确指挥,各地发扬风格,团结抗洪,各类水利工程充分发挥了防洪减灾作用。     

Fiji's worst natural disaster: the 1931 hurricane and flood

At least 225 people in the Fiji Islands died as a result of the 1931 hurricane and flood, representing the largest loss of life from a natural disaster in Fiji's recent history. This paper explores the causes of disaster and the potential for recurrence. The disaster occurred because a rare event surprised hundreds of people—especially recently settled Indian farmers—occupying highly exposed floodplains in north‐west Viti Levu island. The likelihood of a flood disaster of such proportions occurring today has been diminished by changed settlement patterns and building materials; however, a trend towards re‐occupancy of floodplains, sometimes in fragile dwellings, is exposing new generations to flood risks. The contribution of this paper to the global hazards literature is set out in three sections: the ethnicity, gender and age of flood fatalities; the naturalness of disasters; and the merit of choice and constraint as explanations for patterns of vulnerability.     

近50年来湖南省旱洪灾害及其时空分布

利用 194 9年以来湖南省 9个代表站的降水资料 ,提出了湖南省旱洪灾害的等级标准 ,分析了湖南省旱洪灾害及其时空分布和旱洪重灾区的形成原因     

基于洪水灾害快速评估的承灾体易损性信息管理系统

洪水灾害易损性信息管理系统是为了开展洪水灾害快速评估,对不同洪水灾害流域和同一洪水灾害流域中的不同地区、不同承灾体(财产分类)、不同致灾因子(水深和历时等)条件,以财产的损失率为核心的综合信息管理系统。本文介绍了洪水灾害易损性信息管理系统的开发与设计的基本原理,阐述了系统的总体结构框架和功能模块划分,并且在系统数据流程图的基础上,对损失率数据库等几个重要的模块进行了详细的分析与设计,给出了系统的部分运行结果。本系统在与GIS、遥感等空间技术结合后,能够高效地完成各种洪水灾害损失的快速评估与预测分析工作,同时,本系统亦可独立作为对区域洪水灾害易损性研究的数据基础和理论支撑。     

上海市洪涝灾害损失评估系统的开发

结合上海市洪涝灾害损失评估模型的研制工作,从GIS的应用开发角度,系统阐述了设计和开发上海市洪涝灾害损失评估系统的步骤和技术特征,该系统集基础信息处理、模型运算、结果查询、专题图制作、报表输出等于一体,建立了与洪水数值模型和用户实时添加方案的动态关联,整个系统开放、灵活、实用,为上海市防汛决策提供了有力的技术支持。     

Community cohesion after a natural disaster: insights from a Carlisle flood

This project analysed changes in community cohesion following a natural disaster. Data were collected from a flood‐affected community using a questionnaire survey. Analyses revealed that community cohesion was not predicted by the length of residence, or any other demographic characteristic of residents, but rather by a sense of community, community cognition and the degree of community participation. Cohesion alteration was not uniform, but varied along levels of hazard severity (degree of flood invasion). Cohesion increased in line with hazard severity at the initial flood stage, as residents recognised the importance of community unity and came together to cope with their losses. When the severity increased, residents transferred their focus to individual interests, which resulted in decreased cohesion. This project distinguishes itself in examining community cohesion in the wake of a natural disaster in the real world. Implications regarding community reconstruction and suggestions for hazard researchers are discussed accordingly.     

基于GIS的湖北省洪水灾害危险性评价

在湖北省1：25万数字地形图的基础上,利用ARC／INFO地理信息系统平台强大的空间分析和叠加功能,对湖北省洪水灾害危险性进行了初步评价,首先对构洪水灾害危险性的4个因子－－降水,地形,河网（包括河流、湖泊,水库）以及历史上洪灾发生的频次等进行了分析和数字化,得出了各因子对洪水灾害影响程度的栅格图层,其次,对这些图层进行空间叠加,得到了湖北省洪涝灾害危险性评价图,结果显示,湖北省东部及中部地区的洪水危险性普遍高于其他地区,特别是枝江以下的长江沿线以及钟祥以下的汉江中下游一线两岸地区,危险性最高,这与这些地区丰富的降水,低平的地势是密切相关的;而鄂西南和鄂东南部虽然降水也比较丰富,但由于该区地势高,因此洪水危险性相对于中部来说总体上要低一些,鄂西北地区尤其是神农架地区降水量少,地势最高,因而危险性最低。这个结果与河北省的实际情况是符合的。     

情景驱动的区域自然灾害风险分析

随着近年来自然灾害发生频次的增加与巨灾效应的不断涌现,人们对自然灾害风险分析提出了更高的要求与期望。然而,由于人们对"风险"认识的不全面与不系统,导致了灾害风险分析理论与技术水平的停滞不前。"风险是与某种不利事件有关的一种未来情景"是我们对"风险"的诠释。据该定义可知,风险不仅仅只是着眼于过去,更重要的是要展望未来;风险不再只是历史灾难的统计,而是未来不利事件情景的分析。因此,"情景分析"成为风险研究的一项新手段,它不仅摒弃了传统方法仅着眼"过去"的局限性而实现从"过去"到"现在"到"未来"合理过渡的研究思路,而且摒弃了传统方法仅限于因子统计分析的局限性而实现系统分析的研究理念。以"情景分析"为技术手段,提出了情景驱动的区域自然灾害风险分析方法,旨在探讨对风险研究思路与技术的创新。