Insuring against earthquakes: simulating the cost‐effectiveness of disaster preparedness

Ex‐ante measures to improve risk preparedness for natural disasters are generally considered to be more effective than ex‐post measures. Nevertheless, most resources are allocated after an event in geographical areas that are vulnerable to natural disasters. This paper analyses the cost‐effectiveness of ex‐ante adaptation measures in the wake of earthquakes and provides an assessment of the future role of private and public agencies in disaster risk management. The study uses a simulation model approach to evaluate consumption losses after earthquakes under different scenarios of intervention. Particular attention is given to the role of activity diversification measures in enhancing disaster preparedness and the contributions of (targeted) microcredit and education programmes for reconstruction following a disaster. Whereas the former measures are far more cost‐effective, missing markets and perverse incentives tend to make ex‐post measures a preferred option, thus occasioning underinvestment in ex‐ante adaptation initiatives.     

‘Here,I'm not at ease’: anthropological perspectives on community resilience

A number of recent studies on disaster reconstruction have focused on the concept of community resilience and its importance in the recovery of communities from collective trauma. This article reviews the contributions the anthropological literature and the ethnographic case studies of two post‐Hurricane Mitch housing reconstruction sites make to the theorising of community and resilience in post‐disaster reconstruction. Specifically, the article demonstrates that communities are not static or neatly bounded entities that remain constant before, during and after a disaster; rather, communities take on shape and qualities depending on the relationships in which they engage with government agencies and aid organisations before and after disasters. Consequently, the article argues that definitions of community resilience and disaster mitigation programmes must take the emergent and relational nature of communities into account in order to address the long‐term causes and impacts of disasters.     

Fieldwork after conflict: contextualising the challenges of access and data quality

Despite sustained scholarly interest in post‐conflict states, there has not been a thorough review and analysis of associated methodology and the challenges of conducting research in these contexts. Addressing this gap, this paper directs attention to the particular effects of these settings on access and data quality and their ramifications for the resulting scholarship. It assesses the intrinsic challenges of performing fieldwork in these environments, drawing on both relevant social science literature and the authors’ experiences of carrying out research in Afghanistan and Timor‐Leste. The study demonstrates that the post‐conflict environment moulds research design and, consequently, influences how questions are answered as well as the questions asked. Moreover, it highlights ways to mitigate these issues. This work is of relevance to scholars planning to engage in field research and to researchers reflecting upon their work, as well as to policymakers who are considering undertaking programmes or commissioning research in post‐conflict areas.     

Community social capital and individual functioning in the post‐disaster context

Disasters can have severe and long‐lasting consequences for individuals and communities. While scholarly evidence indicates that access to social support can ameliorate their negative impacts, less understood is whether or not neighbourhood social capital can facilitate recovery. This study uses two waves of survey data—collected before and after a significant flood in Brisbane, Australia, in 2011—to examine the relationship between the severity of the event at the individual and neighbourhood level, access to neighbourhood social capital and individual‐level social support, and functioning in the post‐disaster environment. In line with previous research, the results indicate that the severity of the flood is the most salient predictor of post‐disaster functioning. No evidence was unearthed to show that neighbourhood social capital amassed before the flood leads to better functioning subsequently, but the findings do suggest that individual‐level social support can moderate the effect of flood severity on functioning.     

Flooding,resettlement, and change in livelihoods: evidence from rural Mozambique

Post‐disaster development policies, such as resettlement, can have major impacts on communities. This paper examines how and why people's livelihoods change as a result of resettlement, and relocated people's views of such changes, in the context of natural disasters. It presents two historically‐grounded, comparative case studies of post‐flood resettlement in rural Mozambique. The studies demonstrate a movement away from rain‐fed subsistence agriculture towards commercial agriculture and non‐agricultural activities. The ability to secure a viable livelihood was a key determinant of whether resettlers remained in their new locations or returned to the river valleys despite the risks posed by floods. The findings suggest that more research is required to understand i) why resettlers choose to stay in or abandon designated resettlement areas, ii) what is meant by ‘voluntary’ and ‘involuntary’ resettlement in the realm of post‐disaster reconstruction, and iii) the policy drivers of resettlement in developing countries.     

Towards guidelines for post‐disaster vulnerability reduction in informal settlements

Although the development community has long recognised that securing land tenure and improving housing design can benefit significantly informal settlement residents, there is little research on these issues in communities exposed to natural disasters and hazards. Informal settlements often are located on land left vacant because of inherent risks, such as floodplains, and there is a long history worldwide of disasters affecting informal settlements. This research tackles the following questions: how can informal settlement vulnerabilities be reduced in a post‐disaster setting?; and what are the key issues to address in post‐disaster reconstruction? The main purpose of the paper is to develop a set of initial guidelines for post‐disaster risk reduction in informal settlements, stressing connections to tenure and housing/community design in the reconstruction process. The paper examines disaster and reconstruction responses in two disaster‐affected regions—Jimani, Dominican Republic, and Vargas State, Venezuela—where informal settlements have been hit particularly hard.     

Disaster resilience and population ageing: the 1995 Kobe and 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes in Japan

This paper provides a framework for evaluating the effects of population ageing on disaster resilience. In so doing, it focuses on the 1995 Kobe and 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes, two major disasters that affected Japan before the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake. It analyses regional population recovery on the basis of pre‐disaster and post‐recovery demographic characteristics using defined transition patterns of population ageing. The evaluation framework demonstrates that various recovery measures make different contributions to disaster resilience for each transition pattern of population ageing. With reference to regional population ageing, the framework allows for a prediction of disaster resilience, facilitating place vulnerability assessments and potentially informing policy‐making strategies for Japan and other countries with ageing populations.     

The role of natural disaster in individual and relational adjustment in Sri Lankan mothers following the 2004 tsunami

The purpose of this study is to examine the associations between maternal mental health distress symptoms, including depression and post‐traumatic stress disorder, the extent to which the presence of a child's disaster‐related physical health problem(s) have interfered with daily functioning, and family cohesion over time among Sri Lankan mothers who survived the tsunami on 26 December 2004. Study variables were measured using a self‐report questionnaire administered approximately four months after the event and three years later in summer 2008. Univariate, bivariate, and multivariate analyses were conducted. Path analysis was employed to assess the relationships between the key variables over time and the correlations in the study variables at each time point. Among other findings, the results of the path analysis indicated that post‐traumatic stress symptom distress four months after the disaster significantly predicted variance in family cohesion three years later. Clinical and empirical research implications are presented and discussed.     

Towards a natural disaster intervention and recovery framework

Contemporary responses to facilitate long‐term recovery from large‐scale natural disasters juxtapose between those of humanitarian agencies and governments and those of the affected community. The extent to which these mechanisms articulate is crucial to the recovery propensity of the affected communities. This research examines such action by exploring the relationship between the scale of post‐disaster response interventions, the extent of community participation in them, and their impact on community recovery, using a community wealth capital framework. The investigation was applied to a study of the longer‐term community recovery of the island of Vilufushi, Republic of Maldives, which was almost completely destroyed by the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004. Data were analysed through the employment of a pattern match technique and a holistic recovery network analysis. The research framework, informed by the case‐study results, other long‐term recovery evaluations, and existing resilience theory, is reconfigured as a testable roadmap for future post‐disaster interventions.     

Bridging international relations and disaster studies: the case of disaster–conflict scholarship

International relations and disaster studies have much to gain by thinking critically about their respective theoretical and epistemological assumptions. Yet, few studies to date have sought to assess the potential value of linking these two disciplines. This paper begins to address this shortfall by examining the relationship between disasters and conflict as a research sphere that intersects international relations and disaster studies. Through an analysis of whether or not disasters contribute to intra‐national and international conflict, this paper not only provides a review of the state of the art, but also serves to invite scholars to reflect on related concepts from other fields to strengthen their own approaches to the study of disasters in an international setting. An evaluation of the conceptual and theoretical contributions of each subject area provides useful heuristics for the development of disaster–conflict scholarship and encourages alternative modes of knowledge production through interdisciplinarity.     

NGO collaboration in community post‐disaster reconstruction: field research following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China

The number of communities affected by disasters has been rising. As a result, non‐governmental organisations (NGOs) that attend community post‐disaster reconstruction are often unable to deliver all requirements and have to develop cooperative approaches. However, this collaboration can cause problems because of the complex environments, the fight for limited resources and uncoordinated management, all of which result in poor service delivery to the communities, adding to their woes. From extensive field research and case studies conducted in the post‐Wenchuan earthquake‐stricken communities, this paper introduces an integrated collaboration framework for community post‐disaster reconstruction with the focus on three types of NGOs: international, government organised and civil. The proposed collaboration framework examines the three interrelated components of organisational structure, operational processes and reconstruction goals/implementation areas. Of great significance in better promoting collaborative participation between NGOs are the crucial concepts of participatory reconstruction, double‐layer collaborative networks, and circular review and revision.     

Learning from the rubble: the case of Christchurch,New Zealand,after the 2010 and 2011 earthquakes

Learning after a disaster is crucial in creating more resilient places. However, many societies are repeatedly overwhelmed by disasters. This can be because of missed opportunities to learn in post‐disaster settings or because of actions implemented that seem to be highly relevant to recovery in the short term, but potentially constrain aspirations in the longer term. This paper assesses learning processes among state and non‐state actors and the ways in which these are bridged and scaled up to wider improvements in governance. Aiming to enrich understanding of post‐disaster learning, it explores different actors’ response actions after the earthquakes in Christchurch, New Zealand, in 2010 and 2011. On the one hand, ‘learning by doing’ is occurring, yet, on the other hand, systemic learning is hindered by mismatches between top‐down steering and bottom‐up initiatives. The study concludes that better linking and synergising of learning processes among different levels is vital for enhancing resilience in post‐disaster societies.     

A post‐earthquake psychopathological investigation in Armenia: methodology,summary of findings,and follow‐up

The post‐earthquake psychopathological investigation (PEPSI) was designed to probe the short‐and long‐term effects of the earthquake in northern Armenia on 7 December 1988 on survivors' mental and physical health. Four phases of this study have been conducted to date, and, overall, more than 80 per cent of a sub‐sample of 1,773 drawn from an initial cohort of 32,743 was successfully followed during 2012. This paper describes the methodology employed in the evaluation, summarises previous findings, details the current objectives, and examines the general characteristics of the sample based on the most recent follow‐up phase outcomes. Despite a significant decrease in psychopathology rates between 1990 and 2012, prevalence rates of post‐traumatic stress disorder and depression among study participants in 2012 were greater than 15 and 26 per cent, respectively. The paper also notes the strengths and limitations of the study vis‐à‐vis future research and highlights the importance and potential practical implications of similar assessments and their outcomes.     

地震科技人员开发能力的灰色关联分析

应用灰色系统理论，根据江苏省地震工程研究院的地震科技开发资料，分别以项目负责人的年龄、学历、职称、职务、学科作为比较数列，对年度内完成的实际合同额进行了多因素灰色关联分析，排出了关联序。研究结果客观地揭示了开发能力与人的各种因素——年龄、学历、职称、职务、学科之间的相互关系，为市场经济条件下，地震科技人才的开发、培养和应用，提供了科学依据。     

Predictors of compliance with tornado warnings issued in Joplin,Missouri, in 2011

Joplin, a city in the southwest corner of Missouri, United States, suffered an EF‐5 tornado in the late afternoon of 22 May 2011. This event, which claimed the lives of 162 people, represents the deadliest single tornado to strike the US since modern record‐keeping began in 1950. This study examines the factors associated with responses to tornado warnings. Based on a post‐tornado survey of survivors in Joplin, it reveals that tornado warnings were adequate and timely. Multivariate logistic regression identified four statistically significant determinants of compliance with tornado warnings: number of warning sources, whether respondents were at home when the tornado struck, past tornado experience, and gender. The findings suggest several recommendations, the implementation of which will further improve responses to tornado warnings.     

Comparative analysis of permanent post-disaster houses constructed in Çankırı and Dinar

A major challenge after an earthquake is how to establish a new residential area of a similar or even improved standard for people who have suffered psychological, social and economic impacts and witnessed significant damage to the physical environment. As part of a research project conducted in 2005 and 2008, questionnaires were administered to the permanent occupiers of post‐disaster houses in the Turkish cities of Çank?r? and Dinar. They were asked to compare the comfort levels and other characteristics of the houses in which they now reside with those of the traditional houses in which they used to live. The survey revealed that such aspects do not differ between the two types of accommodation. However, differences were identified between the two areas under review (Çank?r? and Dinar). In addition, average scores for traditional houses were higher than those for post‐disaster houses in both places.     

Ageism: A Factor in the Nutritional Vulnerability of Older People?

Unlike other population groups, the rights, needs and contributions of older people in developing countries are not well understood. With the absence of information about how to assess the nutritional status and vulnerability of older people, HelpAge International joined forces with the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in the early 1990s to launch a research programme. Seven years later some of the basic questions can now be answered but there remains much more to do.
Although older people are increasingly acknowledged as a vulnerable group in emergencies, NGO responses often fail to meet their needs. The question is whether there are real difficulties in service adaptation or whether ageism is one of the greatest barriers to the provision of appropriate services for older people.     

Post‐Ike economic resilience along the Texas coast

The economic devastation resulting from recent natural disasters has spawned intense interest in programmes that promote regional resilience. The economic impacts of Hurricane Ike (September 2008) endured long beyond the storm's landfall, compounded by a national recession. This study analyses the pattern of post‐Ike industrial growth in eight coastal counties of Texas, United States, and identifies sources of resilience and potential drivers of recovery. The results indicate that post‐disaster growth patterns differ from established growth patterns. Levels of resilience vary across industrial sectors, and service sectors tend to lead a recovery. The resilience of the hotel and restaurant sector, for instance, suggests that the presence of relief workers might immunise certain sectors against a post‐disaster economic downturn. Besides the sectors that are generally resilient, each county has its own distinct sectors that, depending on the extent of the damage suffered, tend to perform strongly after a disaster, owing to the characteristics of the respective county's economy.     

The evolving local social contract for managing climate and disaster risk in Vietnam

How do disasters shape local government legitimacy in relation to managing climate‐ and disaster‐related risks? This paper looks at how local authorities in Central Vietnam perceive their social contract for risk reduction, including the partial merging of responsibilities for disaster risk management with new plans for and investments in climate change adaptation and broader socioeconomic development. The findings indicate that extreme floods and storms constitute critical junctures that stimulate genuine institutional change. Local officials are proud of their strengthened role in disaster response and they are eager to boost investment in infrastructure. They have struggled to reinforce their legitimacy among their constituents, but given the shifting roles of the state, private sector, and civil society, and the undiminished emphasis on high‐risk development models, their responsibilities for responding to emerging climate change scenarios are increasingly nebulous. The past basis for legitimacy is no longer valid, but tomorrow's social contract is not yet defined.     

The public health system response to the 2008 Sichuan province earthquake: a literature review and interviews

This paper describes and analyses the public health system response to the deadly earthquake in Sichuan province, China, in May 2008. Drawing on an experiential learning project consisting of a literature review and field research, including a series of interviews with medical and public health professionals, policy‐makers and first responders, a conceptual framework was developed to describe the response. This approach emphasises the pre‐existing preparedness level of the medical and public health systems, as well as social, economic and geo‐political factors that had an impact on mitigation efforts. This framework was used to conduct post‐disaster analyses addressing major response issues and examining methods employed during the public health response to the disaster. This framework could be used to describe and analyse the emergency response to other disasters.