Modeling the influence of climate change on the mass balance of polychlorinated biphenyls in the Adriatic Sea

Climate forcing is forecasted to influence the Adriatic Sea region in a variety of ways, including increasing temperature, and affecting wind speeds, marine currents, precipitation and water salinity. The Adriatic Sea is intensively developed with agriculture, industry, and port activities that introduce pollutants to the environment. Here, we developed and applied a Level III fugacity model for the Adriatic Sea to estimate the current mass balance of polychlorinated biphenyls in the Sea, and to examine the effects of a climate change scenario on the distribution of these pollutants. The model’s performance was evaluated for three PCB congeners against measured concentrations in the region using environmental parameters estimated from the 20th century climate scenario described in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) by the IPCC, and using Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. We find that modeled fugacities of PCBs in air, water and sediment of the Adriatic are in good agreement with observations. The model indicates that PCBs in the Adriatic Sea are closely coupled with the atmosphere, which acts as a net source to the water column. We used model experiments to assess the influence of changes in temperature, wind speed, precipitation, marine currents, particulate organic carbon and air inflow concentrations forecast in the IPCC A1B climate change scenario on the mass balance of PCBs in the Sea. Assuming an identical PCBs’ emission profile (e.g. use pattern, treatment/disposal of stockpiles, mode of entry), modeled fugacities of PCBs in the Adriatic Sea under the A1B climate scenario are higher because higher temperatures reduce the fugacity capacity of air, water and sediments, and because diffusive sources to the air are stronger.     

Climate change: effects on the ecological basis for reindeer husbandry in Sweden

This paper examines potential effects of predicted climate changes on the forage conditions during both summer and winter for semidomesticated reindeer in Sweden. Positive effects in summer ranges include higher plant productivity and a longer growing season, while negative effects include increased insect harassment. Forage quality may change in both positive and negative ways. An increase in shrubs and trees in alpine heaths is also likely. A warmer climate means shorter winters, which will have positive effects for the survival of reindeer. However, warmer and wetter weather may also result in increased probabilities of ice-crust formations, which strongly decrease forage availability. A warmer climate with higher forest productivity will also likely reduce lichen availability through competitive interactions. Adaptations to these changes will include maintaining a choice of grazing sites in both summer and winter. However, this capacity may already be severely limited because of other forms of land use.     

Climate change impacts on the leaching of a heavy metal contamination in a small lowland catchment

The Keersop catchment (43km(2)) in the south of The Netherlands has been contaminated by the emissions of four zinc ore smelters. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of future projected climate change on the hydrology and the leaching of heavy metals (i.e. Cd and Zn) in the catchment. The numerical, quasi-2D, unsaturated zone Soil Water Atmosphere Plant model was used with 100-year simulated daily time series of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The time series are representative of stationary climates for the periods 1961-1990 ("baseline") and 2071-2100 ("future"). The time series of future climate were obtained by downscaling the results of eight regional climate model (RCM) experiments, driven by the SRES A2 emissions scenario, using change factors for a series of climate statistics and applying them to stochastic weather generator models. The time series are characterized by increased precipitation in winter, less precipitation in summer, and higher air temperatures (between 2°C and 5°C) throughout the year. Future climate scenarios project higher evapotranspiration rates, more irrigation, less drainage, lower discharge rates and lower groundwater levels, due to increased evapotranspiration and a slowing down of the groundwater system. As a result, lower concentrations of Cd and Zn in surface water are projected. The reduced leaching of heavy metals, due to drying of the catchment, showed a positive impact on a limited aspect of surface water quality.     

Reef development at Inhaca Island,Mozambique: coral communities and impacts of the 1999/2000 Southern African floods

Inhaca Island, southern Mozambique, is located towards the southerly latitudinal limits of coral reef growth. Reef development is restricted to the margins of channels which dissect intertidal flats on the Maputo Bay side of the island, and to depths of around 6 m. In contrast to lower latitude reefs, reef development is therefore both spatially and bathymetrically restricted (largely due to high turbidity levels). These natural stress levels were exacerbated, via increased freshwater and sediment discharge, during the severe floods of late 1999/early 2000. Flood impacts varied but were most significant on reefs on the inner (western) side of the island where live coral cover (LCC) decreased from 60.5% (1999) to 24.0% (2001). This is attributed to freshwater-induced bleaching. Dead in situ coral cover increased from 18.6% (1999) to 51.3% (2001). Reefs on the southern tip of the island, by contrast, were relatively unaffected. It is suggested that this largely reflects a closer proximity to the open Indian Ocean which mitigated the effects of freshwater dilution.     

Coral reef aerosol emissions in response to irradiance stress in the Great Barrier Reef,Australia

We investigate the correlation between stress-related compounds produced by corals of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and local atmospheric properties—an issue that goes to the core of the coral ecosystem’s ability to survive climate change. We relate the variability in a satellite decadal time series of fine-mode aerosol optical depth (AOD) to a coral stress metric, formulated as a function of irradiance, water clarity, and tide, at Heron Island in the southern GBR. We found that AOD was correlated with the coral stress metric, and the correlation increased at low wind speeds, when horizontal advection of air masses was low and the production of non-biogenic aerosols was minimal. We posit that coral reefs may be able to protect themselves from irradiance stress during calm weather by affecting the optical properties of the atmosphere and local incident solar radiation.     

Modelling the impact of nitrogen deposition, climate change and nutrient limitations on tree carbon sequestration in Europe for the period 1900-2050

We modelled the combined effects of past and expected future changes in climate and nitrogen deposition on tree carbon sequestration by European forests for the period 1900-2050. Two scenarios for deposition (current legislation and maximum technically feasible reductions) and two climate scenarios (no change and SRES A1 scenario) were used. Furthermore, the possible limitation of forest growth by calcium, magnesium, potassium and phosphorus is investigated. The area and age structure of the forests was assumed to stay constant to observations during the period 1970-1990. Under these assumptions, the simulations show that the change in forest growth and carbon sequestration in the past is dominated by changes in nitrogen deposition, while climate change is the major driver for future carbon sequestration. However, its impact is reduced by nitrogen availability. Furthermore, limitations in base cations, especially magnesium, and in phosphorus may significantly affect predicted growth in the future.     

Differentiating the effects of climate and land use change on European biodiversity: A scenario analysis

Current observed as well as projected changes in biodiversity are the result of multiple interacting factors, with land use and climate change often marked as most important drivers. We aimed to disentangle the separate impacts of these two for sets of vascular plant, bird, butterfly and dragonfly species listed as characteristic for European dry grasslands and wetlands, two habitats of high and threatened biodiversity. We combined articulations of the four frequently used SRES climate scenarios and associated land use change projections for 2030, and assessed their impact on population trends in species (i.e. whether they would probably be declining, stable or increasing). We used the BIOSCORE database tool, which allows assessment of the effects of a range of environmental pressures including climate change as well as land use change. We updated the species lists included in this tool for our two habitat types. We projected species change for two spatial scales: the EU27 covering most of Europe, and the more restricted biogeographic region of ‘Continental Europe’. Other environmental pressures modelled for the four scenarios than land use and climate change generally did not explain a significant part of the variance in species richness change. Changes in characteristic bird and dragonfly species were least pronounced. Land use change was the most important driver for vascular plants in both habitats and spatial scales, leading to a decline in 50–100% of the species included, whereas climate change was more important for wetland dragonflies and birds (40–50 %). Patterns of species decline were similar in continental Europe and the EU27 for wetlands but differed for dry grasslands, where a substantially lower proportion of butterflies and birds declined in continental Europe, and 50 % of bird species increased, probably linked to a projected increase in semi-natural vegetation. In line with the literature using climate envelope models, we found little divergence among the four scenarios. Our findings suggest targeted policies depending on habitat and species group. These are, for dry grasslands, to reduce land use change or its effects and to enhance connectivity, and for wetlands to mitigate climate change effects.     

Assessment of the probability of extreme weather events and their potential effects in large conurbations

The likelihood of occurrence of extreme high-temperature run events is estimated for different values of the event intensity and persistence from very long synthetic time series of daily maximum temperatures generated by Monte Carlo simulations using a first-order autoregressive or Markov model. A theoretical analysis reveals a higher relative sensitivity of the simulated extreme event probabilities to changes in the variability of climate than to changes in its mean state. Moreover, this sensitivity relatively increases at a nonlinear rate the more extreme the event. The developed probabilistic model is applied in order to derive local scenarios of extreme high-temperature run events for a large conurbation like the city of Berlin assuming both arbitrary hypothetical and physically based new climate states described by changes in the model parameters (e.g. the mean, the standard deviation and the first-order autocorrelation of the daily maximum temperature time series). As a consequence of a 1.7°C increase in the mean as well as a 19% increase in the temperature variability in July as predicted by the climate model ECHAM_1/LSG assuming an unrestricted future increase in the global atmospheric concentration of climate relevant greenhouse gases according to the IPCC Scenario A (“Business as usual”) the intensity as well as the persistence of extreme high-temperature run events will rise considerably up to the end of the next century. In particular, intense hot spells characterized by at least five consecutive daily maximum temperatures equaling or exceeding 33°C are expected to occur every eight years under the new climate conditions compared to a current repetition time of about 47 years. The potential environmental effects might be a significant increase in the heat-stress-related morbidity and mortality rate, an aggravation of the summer smog situation and a destabilization of the urban ecosystems.     

A reflection on four impactful Ambio papers: The biotic perspective: This article belongs to Ambio’s 50th Anniversary Collection. Theme: Climate change impacts

Climate change represents one of the most pressing societal and scientific challenges of our time. While much of the current research on climate change focuses on future prediction, some of the strongest signals of warming can already be seen in Arctic and alpine areas, where temperatures are rising faster than the global average, and in the oceans, where the combination of rising temperatures and acidification due to increased CO₂ concentrations has had catastrophic consequences for sensitive marine organisms inhabiting coral reefs. The scientific papers highlighted as part of this anniversary issue represent some of the most impactful advances in our understanding of the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. Here, we reflect on the legacy of these papers from the biotic perspective.     

Reevaluation of ENCORE: support for the eutrophication threshold model for coral reefs

The results from the multimillion dollar Enrichment of Nutrients on Coral Reefs Experiment (ENCORE) on One Tree Island Reef (OTIR) suggest that increased nutrient loads to coral reefs will have little or no effect on the algal growth rates and, hence, on the associated effects that increased algal growth might have on the functioning and stability of coral reefs. However, a comparison of the concentrations of nutrients within the OTIR lagoon with the proposed nutrient threshold concentrations (NTC) for coral reefs suggests that all sites, including the control sites, were saturated with nutrients during ENCORE, and, hence, one would not expect to get any differences between treatments in the algal-growth related measurements. Thus, ENCORE results provide strong support for the proposed NTCs and support the ecological principle that algal productivity and, consequently, the functioning of coral reefs are sensitive to small changes in the background concentrations of nutrients. The principal conclusion of ENCORE, namely that the addition of nutrients did not cause the "pristine" OTIR to convert from coral communities to algal dominated reefs, is contrary to the fact that there was prolific macroalgal growth on the walls and crests of the experimental microatolls by the end of ENCORE.     

Echoes from the Past: A Healthy Baltic Sea Requires More Effort

Integrated sediment multiproxy studies and modeling were used to reconstruct past changes in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Results of natural changes over the past 6000 years in the Baltic Sea ecosystem suggest that forecasted climate warming might enhance environmental problems of the Baltic Sea. Integrated modeling and sediment proxy studies reveal increased sea surface temperatures and expanded seafloor anoxia (in deep basins) during earlier natural warm climate phases, such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Under future IPCC scenarios of global warming, there is likely no improvement of bottom water conditions in the Baltic Sea. Thus, the measures already designed to produce a healthier Baltic Sea are insufficient in the long term. The interactions between climate change and anthropogenic impacts on the Baltic Sea should be considered in management, implementation of policy strategies in the Baltic Sea environmental issues, and adaptation to future climate change.     

Distribution of pesticides and bisphenol A in sediments collected from rivers adjacent to coral reefs

To investigate the deteriorating health of coral reefs in Okinawa, Japan, natural sediment samples were analyzed for diuron, Irgarol 1051, chlorpyrifos, and bisphenol A (BPA) which are hazardous to corals. Samples were analyzed by solid-phase extraction (SPE) followed by high-performance liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry (LC–MS–MS). Although diuron and chlorpyrifos usage is only well recorded for farms and not for cities, these chemicals were detected in both rural and urban areas. Additionally, diuron concentration in urban areas was in some cases higher than in rural areas, which might be caused by greater consumption of these chemicals in home gardens in city areas. Irgarol 1051 was detected in downstream river areas, which are situated far from the source sites such as pier or fishery harbor (0.6–3.2 km). This result suggested that Irgarol 1051 could be transported from the river mouths to the sampling sites during flood tides. High BPA concentrations were associated with urban areas (<1.2–22.0 μg kg⁻¹), while low concentrations were associated with rural areas (nd–6.8 μg kg⁻¹). The river sediments under study are delivered to coral reefs in large quantity through runoff caused by typhoons and other heavy rains. The highly hazardous chemicals are carried into coral reefs on these sediments. Therefore, these hazardous chemical substances may already be influencing the coral reefs.     

The impact of climate change on the soil/moisture regime of Scottish mineral soils

The likely impact of climate change on the moisture regime of Scottish soils and consequently on agriculture and land use has been addressed using a novel Geographic Information Systems (GIS) approach. Current estimates of changes in summer precipitation by the year 2030 are 0% with an associated uncertainty of +/- 11%. This study considers the worst case scenario of a decrease in rainfall by 11% which will lead to some low rainfall areas experiencing an increased drought risk, particularly on lighter soils. Wet areas with heavy soils could benefit from an increase in the accessibility period for machinery. As the major agricultural land in Scotland is located on the relatively dry east coast where localised problems due to drought are not uncommon even under the present climate, the detrimental effects of a decrease in rainfall for the whole of Scotland are therefore likely to outweigh the benefits. Approximately 8% of Scotland has been identified in this study as soil/climate combinations which will be susceptible to drought should summer rainfall decrease by 11% and summer temperature increase by 1.4 degrees C.     

Future Nutrient Load Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Due to Climate and Lifestyle Changes

Dynamic model simulations of the future climate and projections of future lifestyles within the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB) were considered in this study to estimate potential trends in future nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads were estimated using a simple proxy based only on human population (to account for nutrient sources) and stream discharges (to account for nutrient transport). This population-discharge proxy provided a good estimate for nutrient loads across the seven sub-basins of the BSDB considered. All climate scenarios considered here produced increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea over the next 100 years. There was variation between the climate scenarios such that sub-basin and regional differences were seen in future nutrient runoff depending on the climate model and scenario considered. Regardless, the results of this study indicate that changes in lifestyle brought about through shifts in consumption and population potentially overshadow the climate effects on future nutrient runoff for the entire BSDB. Regionally, however, lifestyle changes appear relatively more important in the southern regions of the BSDB while climatic changes appear more important in the northern regions with regards to future increases in nutrient loads. From a whole-ecosystem management perspective of the BSDB, this implies that implementation of improved and targeted management practices can still bring about improved conditions in the Baltic Sea in the face of a warmer and wetter future climate.     

Socio-economic vulnerability to climate change in the central mountainous region of eastern Mexico

Climate change effects are expected to be more severe for some segments of society than others. In Mexico, climate variability associated with climate change has important socio-economic and environmental impacts. From the central mountainous region of eastern Veracruz, Mexico, we analyzed data of total annual precipitation and mean annual temperature from 26 meteorological stations (1922–2008) and from General Circulation Models. We developed climate change scenarios based on the observed trends with projections to 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100, finding considerable local climate changes with reductions in precipitation of over 700 mm and increases in temperature of ~9°C for the year 2100. Deforested areas located at windward were considered more vulnerable, representing potential risk for natural environments, local communities, and the main crops cultivated (sugarcane, coffee, and corn). Socio-economic vulnerability is exacerbated in areas where temperature increases and precipitation decreases.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0690-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

New Perspectives on Marine Biodiversity

Marine and terrestrial ecosystems are so fundamentally different in some aspects that many of the issues concerning biodiversity cannot be interpreted using a single theory of common application to all ecosystems. Their limitation is evident when it comes to highly biodiverse and interconnected marine ecosystems such as coral reefs. Trophic links are a major factor, but space, breeding, shelter from predators, environmental cues, behavior ingrained in genotypes, genetic variability, mutations, and connectivity of marine critical habitats are also important. The importance of the connectivity of habitats such as coral reefs, seagrasses, and mangrove in biodiversity preservation should be recognized. Migratory species require corridors for gene flow and that influences diversity. The existing theories do not address the biodiversity issues related to life in the abyssal plains and deep sea trenches and the challenge posed by climate change. An accurate understanding of marine biodiversity requires comprehensive knowledge of ecological interrelationships and new perspectives that reflect the reality of global environmental change.     

Endocrine disrupter nonylphenol and bisphenol A contamination in Okinawa and Ishigaki Islands, Japan--within coral reefs and adjacent river mouths

Certain chemicals possess the potential to modulate endocrine systems, and thereby interfere with reproduction and developmental processes in the wild. We analyzed endocrine disrupters nonylphenol (NP) and bisphenol A (BPA) levels at various sites in Okinawa and Ishigaki Islands, Japan. River-water samples showed undetectable to low concentrations of NP and BPA at most of the sites investigated. However, an appreciable amount of BPA was detected in sediments at one coral reef site. In addition, significant numbers of river sediment samples showed appreciable amounts of NP and BPA. Most of the sampling sites for this study are located within a distance of 1 km from the coral reefs, which are under influence of river-waters to a variable extent. Therefore, influence of endocrine disrupters may have already begun on adjacent coral reefs. Both endocrine disrupters were positively correlated with human population densities, but not with the contents of red soil generated by farm land reformation. Therefore, it is concluded that NP and BPA pollution is a consequence of human waste discharge, both domestic and industrial, and not by agricultural activities.     

Global temperature change from the transport sectors: Historical development and future scenarios

Transport affects climate directly and indirectly through mechanisms that operate on very different timescales and cause both warming and cooling. We calculate contributions to the historical development in global mean temperature for the main transport sectors (road transport, aviation, shipping and rail) based on estimates of historical emissions and by applying knowledge about the various forcing mechanisms from detailed studies. We also calculate the development in future global mean temperature for four transport scenarios consistent with the IPCC SRES scenarios, one mitigation scenario and one sensitivity test scenario. There are large differences between the transport sectors in terms of sign and magnitude of temperature effects and with respect to the contributions from the long- and short-lived components. Since pre-industrial times, we calculate that transport in total has contributed 9% of total net man-made warming in the year 2000. The dominating contributor to warming is CO₂, followed by tropospheric O₃. By sector, road transport is the largest contributor; 11% of the warming in 2000 is due to this sector. Likewise, aviation has contributed 4% and rail ～1%. Shipping, on the other hand, has caused a net cooling up to year 2000, with a contribution of ?7%, due to the effects of SO₂ and NOx emissions. The total net contribution from the transport sectors to total man-made warming is ～15% in 2050, and reaches 20% in 2100 in the A1 and B1 scenarios. For all scenarios and throughout the century, road transport is the dominating contributor to warming. Due to the anticipated reduction in sulphur content of fuels, the net effect of shipping changes from cooling to warming by the end of the century. Significant uncertainties are related to the estimates of historical and future net warming mainly due to cirrus, contrails and aerosol effects, as well as uncertainty in climate sensitivity.     

Climate change in Mediterranean mountains during the 21st century

Mediterranean mountain biomes are considered endangered due to climate change that affects directly or indirectly different key features (biodiversity, snow cover, glaciers, run-off processes, and water availability). Here, we provide an assessment of temperature, precipitation, and spring precipitation changes in Mediterranean mountains under different emission scenarios (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) and Atmosphere-Ocean-Coupled General Circulation Models for two periods: 2055 (2040-2069 period) and 2085 (2070-2099). Finally, the future climate trends projected for Mediterranean mountains are compared with those trends projected for non-Mediterranean European mountain ranges. The range of projected warming varies between +1.4 degrees C and 5.1 degrees C for 2055 (+1.6 degrees C and +8.3 degrees C for 2085). Climate models also project a reduction of precipitation, mainly during spring (-17% under Alfi and -4.8% under B1 for 2085). On the contrary, non-Mediterranean European mountains will not experience a reduction of annual and spring precipitation. Implications of predicted climate change for both human and physical features are coupled in an integrated framework to gain a broad perspective on future trends and their consequences.     

Increase in summer European ozone amounts due to climate change

The local and regional distribution of pollutants is significantly influenced by weather patterns and variability along with the spatial patterns of emissions. Therefore, climatic changes which affect local meteorological conditions can alter air quality. We use the regional air quality model CHIMERE driven by meteorological fields from regional climate change simulations to investigate changes in summer ozone mixing ratios over Europe under increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Using three 30-year simulation periods, we find that daily peak ozone amounts as well as average ozone concentrations substantially increase during summer in future climate conditions. This is mostly due to higher temperatures and reduced cloudiness and precipitation over Europe and it leads to a higher number of ozone events exceeding information and warning thresholds. Our results show a pronounced regional variability, with the largest effects of climate change on ozone concentrations occurring over England, Belgium, Germany and France. The temperature-driven increase in biogenic emissions appears to enhance the ozone production and isoprene was identified as the most important chemical factor in the ozone sensitivity. We also find that summer ozone levels in future climate projections are similar to those found during the exceptionally warm and dry European summer of 2003. Our simulations suggest that in future climate conditions summer ozone might pose a much more serious threat to human health, agriculture and natural ecosystems in Europe, so that the effects of climate trends on pollutant amounts should be considered in future emission control measures.