Representing the Connectivity of Upland Areas to Floodplains and Streams in SWAT+

In recent years, watershed modelers have put increasing emphasis on capturing the interaction of landscape hydrologic processes instead of focusing on streamflow at the watershed outlet alone. Understanding the hydrologic connectivity between landscape elements is important to explain the hydrologic response of a watershed to rainfall events. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool+ (SWAT+) is a new version of SWAT with improved runoff routing capabilities. Subbasins may be divided into landscape units (LSUs), e.g., upland areas and floodplains, and flow can be routed between these LSUs. We ran three scenarios representing different extents of connectivity between uplands, floodplains, and streams. In the first and second scenarios, the ratio of channelized flow from the upland to the stream and sheet flow from the upland to the floodplain was 70/30 and 30/70, respectively, for all upland/floodplain pairs. In the third scenario, the ratio was calculated for each upland/floodplain pair based on the upland/floodplain area ratio. Results indicate differences in streamflow were small, but the relative importance of flow components and upland areas and floodplains as sources of surface runoff changed. Also, the soil moisture in the floodplains was impacted. The third scenario was found to provide more realistic results than the other two. A realistic representation of connectivity in watershed models has important implications for the identification of pollution sources and sinks.     

Implications of Conceptual Channel Representation on SWAT Streamflow and Sediment Modeling

Hydrologic modeling outputs are influenced by how a watershed system is represented. Channel routing is a typical example of the mathematical conceptualization of watershed landscape and processes in hydrologic modeling. We investigated the sensitivity of accuracy, equifinality, and uncertainty of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modeling to channel dimensions to demonstrate how a conceptual representation of a watershed system affects streamflow and sediment modeling. Results showed the amount of uncertainty and equifinality strongly responded to channel dimensions. On the other hand, the model performance did not significantly vary with the changes in the channel representation due to the degree of freedom allowed by the conceptual nature of hydrologic modeling in the parameter calibration. Such findings demonstrated good modeling performance statistics do not necessarily mean small output uncertainty, and partial improvements in the watershed representation may neither increase modeling accuracy nor reduce uncertainty. We also showed the equifinality and uncertainty of hydrologic modeling are case‐dependent rather than specific to models or regions, suggesting great caution should be used when attempting to transfer uncertainty analysis results to other modeling studies, especially for ungauged watersheds. Editor's note: This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

WATERSHED SCALE MODELING OF CRITICAL SOURCE AREAS OF RUNOFF GENERATION AND PHOSPHORUS TRANSPORT1

ABSTRACT: A curve number based model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), and a physically based model, Soil Moisture Distribution and Routing (SMDR), were applied in a headwater watershed in Pennsylvania to identify runoff generation areas, as runoff areas have been shown to be critical for phosphorus management. SWAT performed better than SMDR in simulating daily streamflows over the four‐year simulation period (Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient: SWAT, 0.62; SMDR, 0.33). Both models varied streamflow simulations seasonally as precipitation and watershed conditions varied. However, levels of agreement between simulated and observed flows were not consistent over seasons. SMDR, a variable source area based model, needs further improvement in model formulations to simulate large peak flows as observed. SWAT simulations matched the majority of observed peak flow events. SMDR overpredicted annual flow volumes, while SWAT underpredicted the same. Neither model routes runoff over the landscape to water bodies, which is critical to surface transport of phosphorus. SMDR representation of the watershed as grids may allow targeted management of phosphorus sources. SWAT representation of fields as hydrologic response units (HRUs) does not allow such targeted management.     

Simulation of Daily Flow Pathways,Tile‐Drain Nitrate Concentrations,and Soil‐Nitrogen Dynamics Using SWAT

Tile drainage significantly alters flow and nutrient pathways and reliable simulation at this scale is needed for effective planning of nutrient reduction strategies. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been widely utilized for prediction of flow and nutrient loads, but few applications have evaluated the model's ability to simulate pathway‐specific flow components or nitrate‐nitrogen (NO₃‐N) concentrations in tile‐drained watersheds at the daily time step. The objectives of this study were to develop and calibrate SWAT models for small, tile‐drained watersheds, evaluate model performance for simulation of flow components and NO₃‐N concentration at daily intervals, and evaluate simulated soil‐nitrogen dynamics. Model evaluation revealed that it is possible to meet accepted performance criteria for simulation of monthly total flow, subsurface flow (SSF), and NO₃‐N loads while obtaining daily surface runoff (SURQ), SSF, and NO₃‐N concentrations that are not satisfactory. This limits model utility for simulating best management practices (BMPs) and compliance with water quality standards. Although SWAT simulates the soil N‐cycle and most predicted fluxes were within ranges reported in agronomic studies, improvements to algorithms for soil‐N processes are needed. Variability in N fluxes is extreme and better parameterization and constraint, through use of more detailed agronomic data, would also improve NO₃‐N simulation in SWAT. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

SWATMOD‐Prep: Graphical User Interface for Preparing Coupled SWAT‐MODFLOW Simulations

This article presents SWATMOD‐Prep, a graphical user interface that couples a SWAT watershed model with a MODFLOW groundwater flow model. The interface is based on a recently published SWAT‐MODFLOW code that couples the models via mapping schemes. The spatial layout of SWATMOD‐Prep guides the user through the process of importing shape files (sub‐basins, hydrologic response units [HRUs], river network) from an existing SWAT model, creating a grid, performing necessary geo‐processing operations to link the models, writing out SWAT‐MODFLOW files, and running the simulation. The option of creating a new single‐layer MODFLOW model for near‐surface alluvial aquifers is available, with the user prompted to provide groundwater surface elevation (through a digital elevation model), aquifer thickness, and necessary aquifer parameter values. The option of simulating nitrate transport in the aquifer also is available, using the reactive transport model RT3D. The interface is in the public domain. It is programmed in Python, with various software packages used for geo‐processing operations (e.g., selection, intersection of rasters) and inputting/outputting data, and is written for Windows. The use of SWATMOD‐Prep is demonstrated for the Little River Experimental Watershed, Georgia. SWATMOD‐Prep and SWAT‐MODFLOW executables are available with an accompanying user's manual at: http://swat.tamu.edu/software/swat-modflow/ . The user's manual also accompanies this article as Supporting Information.     

SWAT‐LUT: A Desktop Graphical User Interface for Updating Land Use in SWAT

Long‐term simulations of agricultural watersheds have often been done assuming constant land use over time, but this is not a realistic assumption for many agricultural regions. This paper presents the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT)‐Landuse Update Tool (LUT), a standalone, user‐friendly desktop‐based tool for updating land use in the SWAT model that allows users to process multi‐year land use data. SWAT‐LUT is compatible with several SWAT model interfaces, provides users with several options to easily prepare and incorporate land use changes (LUCs) over a simulation period, and allows users to incorporate past or emerging land use categories. Incorporation of LUCs is expected to provide realistic model parameterization and scenario simulations. SWAT‐LUT is a public domain interface written in Python programming language. Two applications at the Fort Cobb Reservoir Experimental Watershed located in Oklahoma and pertinent results are provided to demonstrate its use. Incorporating LUCs related to implementation of recommended conservation practices over the years reduced discharge, evapotranspiration, sediment, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus loads by 59%, 9%, 68%, 53%, and 88%, respectively. The user’s manual is included in this article as Supporting Information. The SWAT‐LUT executable file and an example SWAT project with three land use rasters and the user’s manual are available at the United States Department of Agriculture‐Agricultural Research Service Grazinglands Research Laboratory website under Software. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Evaluation of SWAT Impoundment Modeling Methods in Water and Sediment Simulations

Worldwide studies show 80%–90% of all sediments eroded from watersheds is trapped within river networks such as reservoirs, ponds, and wetlands. To represent the impact of impoundments on sediment routing in watershed modeling, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) developers recommend to model reservoirs, ponds, and wetlands using impoundment tools (ITs). This study evaluates performance of SWAT ITs in the modeling of a small, agricultural watershed dominated by lakes and wetlands. The study demonstrates how to incorporate impoundments into the SWAT model, and discusses and evaluates involved parameters. The study then recommends an appropriate calibration sequence, i.e., landscape parameters calibration, followed by pond/wetlands calibration, then channel parameter calibrations, and lastly, reservoir parameter calibration. Results of this study demonstrate not following SWAT recommendation regarding modeling water land use as an impoundment depreciates SWAT performance, and may lead to misplaced calibration efforts and model over‐calibration. Further, the chosen method to model impoundments’ outflow significantly impacts sediment loads in the watershed, while streamflow simulation is not very sensitive. This study also allowed calculation of mass accumulation rates in modeled impoundments where the annual mass accumulation rate in wetlands (2.3 T/ha/yr) was 39% higher than mass accumulation rate in reservoirs (1.4 T/ha/yr).     

Augmenting Watershed Model Calibration with Incorporation of Ancillary Data Sources and Qualitative Soft Data Sources

Watershed simulation models such as the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) can be calibrated using “hard data” such as temporal streamflow observations; however, users may find upon examination of model outputs, that the calibrated models may not reflect actual watershed behavior. Thus, it is often advantageous to use “soft data” (i.e., qualitative knowledge such as expected denitrification rates that observed time series do not typically exist) to ensure that the calibrated model is representative of the real world. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the efficacy of coupling SWAT‐Check (a post‐evaluation framework for SWAT outputs) and IPEAT‐SD (Integrated Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis Tool‐Soft & hard Data evaluation) to constrain the bounds of soft data during SWAT auto‐calibration. IPEAT‐SD integrates 59 soft data variables to ensure SWAT does not violate physical processes known to occur in watersheds. IPEAT‐SD was evaluated for two case studies where soft data such as denitrification rate, nitrate attributed from subsurface flow to total discharge ratio, and total sediment loading were used to conduct model calibration. Results indicated that SWAT model outputs may not satisfy reasonable soft data responses without providing pre‐defined bounds. IPEAT‐SD provides an efficient and rigorous framework for users to conduct future studies while considering both soft data and traditional hard information measures in watershed modeling.     

EVALUATION OF THE APPLICABILITY OF THE SWAT MODEL FOR COASTAL WATERSHEDS IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA1

ABSTRACT: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been used for hydrologic analyses at various watershed scales. However, little is known about the model's performance in coastal watersheds. In this study SWAT was evaluated for its applicability in three Louisiana coastal watersheds: the Amite, Tickfaw, and Tangipahoa River watersheds. The model was calibrated with daily discharge from 1976 to 1977 and validated from 1979 to 1999 for the Amite and Tangipahoa and with daily discharge from 1979 to 1989 for the Tickfaw. Deviation of mean discharge and the Nash‐Sutcliffe model efficiency were used to evaluate model behavior. The study found that Manning's roughness coefficient for the main channel, SCS curve number, and soil evaporation compensation factor were the most sensitive parameters for these coastal watersheds. The Manning's roughness coefficient showed the greatest effect on the response time of surface runoff, suggesting the critical role of channel routing in hydrologic modeling for lowland watersheds. The SWAT model demonstrated an excellent performance, with Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.935, 0.940, and 0.960 for calibrations of the Amite, Tickfaw, and Tangipahoa watersheds, respectively, and of 0.851, 0.811, and 0.867 for validations. The modeling results demonstrate that SWAT is capable of simulating hydrologic processes for medium scale to large scale coastal lowland watersheds in Louisiana.     

Evaluation of Existing and Modified Wetland Equations in the SWAT Model

The ability to accurately simulate flow and nutrient removal in treatment wetlands within an agricultural, watershed‐scale model is needed to develop effective plans for meeting nutrient reduction goals associated with protection of drinking water supplies and reduction of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone. The objectives of this study were to incorporate new equations for wetland hydrology and nutrient removal in Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), compare model performance using original and improved equations, and evaluate the ramifications of errors in watershed and tile drain simulation on prediction of NO₃‐N dynamics in wetlands. The modified equations produced Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency values of 0.88 to 0.99 for daily NO₃‐N load predictions, and percent bias values generally less than 6%. However, statistical improvement over the original equations was marginal and both old and new equations provided accurate simulations. The new equations reduce the model's dependence on detailed monitoring data and hydrologic calibration. Additionally, the modified equations increase SWAT's versatility by incorporating a weir equation and an irreducible nutrient concentration and temperature coefficient. Model improvements enhance the utility of SWAT for simulating flow and nutrients in wetlands and other impoundments, although performance is limited by the accuracy of inflow and NO₃‐N predictions from the contributing watershed. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS,CALIBRATION, AND VALIDATIONS FOR A MULTISITE AND MULTIVARIABLE SWAT MODEL1

The ability of a watershed model to mimic specified watershed processes is assessed through the calibration and validation process. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) watershed model was implemented in the Beaver Reservoir Watershed of Northwest Arkansas. The objectives were to: (1) provide detailed information on calibrating and applying a multisite and multivariable SWAT model; (2) conduct sensitivity analysis; and (3) perform calibration and validation at three different sites for flow, sediment, total phosphorus (TP), and nitrate‐nitrogen (NO₃‐N) plus nitrite‐nitrogen (NO₂‐N). Relative sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify parameters that most influenced predicted flow, sediment, and nutrient model outputs. A multi objective function was defined that consisted of optimizing three statistics: percent relative error (RE), Nash‐Sutcliffe Coefficient (R_NS²), and coefficient of determination (R²). This function was used to successfully calibrate and validate a SWAT model of Beaver Reservoir Watershed at multi‐sites while considering multivariables. Calibration and validation of the model is a key factor in reducing uncertainty and increasing user confidence in its predictive abilities, which makes the application of the model effective. Information on calibration and validation of multisite, multivariable SWAT models has been provided to assist watershed modelers in developing their models to achieve watershed management goals.     

Testing of the Modified Streambank Erosion and Instream Phosphorus Routines for the SWAT Model

In some watersheds, streambanks are a source of two major pollutants, phosphorus (P) and sediment. P originating from both uplands and streambanks can be transported and stored indefinitely on floodplains, streambanks, and in closed depressions near the stream. The objectives of this study were to (1) test the modified streambank erosion and instream P routines for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in the Barren Fork Creek watershed in northeast Oklahoma, (2) predict P in the watershed with and without streambank‐derived P, and (3) determine the significance of streambank erosion P relative to overland P sources. Measured streambank and channel parameters were incorporated into a flow‐calibrated SWAT model and used to estimate streambank erosion and P for the Barren Fork Creek using modified streambank erosion and instream P routines. The predicted reach‐weighted streambank erosion was 40 kg/m vs. the measured 42 kg/m. Streambank erosion contributed 47% of the total P to the Barren Fork Creek and improved P predictions compared to observed data, especially during the high‐flow events. Of the total P entering the stream system, approximately 65% was removed via the watershed outlet and 35% was stored in the floodplain and stream system. This study successfully applied the SWAT model's modified streambank erosion and instream P routines and demonstrated that streambank‐derived P can improve P modeling at the watershed scale. Editor's note: This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

SWATmodel: A Multi‐Operating System,Multi‐Platform SWAT Model Package in R

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model (Arnold et al., 1998) is a popular watershed management tool. Currently, the SWAT model, actively supported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and Texas A&M, operates only on Microsoft^® Windows, which hinders modelers that use other operating systems (OS). This technical note introduces the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN) distributed “SWATmodel” package which allows SWAT 2005 and 2012 to be widely distributed and run as a linear model‐like function on multiple OS and processor platforms. This allows researchers anywhere in the world using virtually any OS to run SWAT. In addition to simplifying the use of SWAT across computational platforms, the SWATmodel package allows SWAT modelers to utilize the analytical capabilities, statistical libraries, modeling tools, and programming flexibility inherent to R. The software allows watershed modelers to develop a simple hydrological watershed model conceptualization of the SWAT model and to obtain a first approximation of the minimum expected results a more complicated model should deliver. As a proof of concept, we test the SWAT model by initializing and calibrating 314 U.S. Geological Survey stream gages in the Chesapeake Bay watershed and present the results.     

Spatial and Temporal Evaluation of Hydrological Response to Climate and Land Use Change in Three South Dakota Watersheds

This study analyzed changes in hydrology between two recent decades (1980s and 2010s) with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in three representative watersheds in South Dakota: Bad River, Skunk Creek, and Upper Big Sioux River watersheds. Two SWAT models were created over two discrete time periods (1981‐1990 and 2005‐2014) for each watershed. National Land Cover Datasets 1992 and 2011 were, respectively, ingested into 1981‐1990 and 2005‐2014 models, along with corresponding weather data, to enable comparison of annual and seasonal runoff, soil water content, evapotranspiration (ET), water yield, and percolation between these two decades. Simulation results based on the calibrated models showed that surface runoff, soil water content, water yield, and percolation increased in all three watersheds. Elevated ET was also apparent, except in Skunk Creek watershed. Differences in annual water balance components appeared to follow changes in land use more closely than variation in precipitation amounts, although seasonal variation in precipitation was reflected in seasonal surface runoff. Subbasin‐scale spatial analyses revealed noticeable increases in water balance components mostly in downstream parts of Bad River and Skunk Creek watersheds, and the western part of Upper Big Sioux River watershed. Results presented in this study provide some insight into recent changes in hydrological processes in South Dakota watersheds. Editor's note: This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Modeling sediment and nitrogen export from a rural watershed in eastern Canada using the soil and water assessment tool

Watershed simulation models can be used to assess agricultural nonpoint-source pollution and for environmental planning and improvement projects. However, before application of any process-based watershed model, the model performance and reliability must be tested with measured data. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool version 2005 (SWAT2005) was used to model sediment and nitrogen loads from the Thomas Brook Watershed, which drains a 7.84 km rural landscape in the Annapolis Valley of Nova Scotia, Canada. The Thomas Brook SWAT model was comprised of 28 subbasins and 265 hydrologic response units, most of them containing agricultural land use, which is the main nonpoint nitrogen source in the watershed. Crop rotation schedules were incorporated into the model using field data collected within Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's Watershed Evaluation of Beneficial Management Practices program. Model calibration (2004-2006) and validation (2007-2008) were performed on a monthly basis using continuous stream flow, sediment, and nitrogen export measurements. Model performance was evaluated using the coefficient of determination, Nash-Sutcliff efficiency (NSE), and percent bias (PBIAS) statistics. Study results show that the model performance was satisfactory (NSE > 0.4; > 0.5) for stream flow, sediment, nitrate-nitrogen, and total nitrogen simulations. Annual corn, barley, and wheat yields were also simulated well, with PBIAS values ranging from 0.3 to 7.2%. This evaluation of SWAT demonstrated that the model has the potential to be used as a decision support tool for agricultural watershed management in Nova Scotia.     

COMPARISON OF PROCESS‐BASED AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK APPROACHES FOR STREAMFLOW MODELING IN AN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: The performance of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and artificial neural network (ANN) models in simulating hydrologic response was assessed in an agricultural watershed in southeastern Pennsylvania. All of the performance evaluation measures including Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (E) and coefficient of determination (R²) suggest that the ANN monthly predictions were closer to the observed flows than the monthly predictions from the SWAT model. More specifically, monthly streamflow E and R² were 0.54 and 0.57, respectively, for the SWAT model calibration period, and 0.71 and 0.75, respectively, for the ANN model training period. For the validation period, these values were ?0.17 and 0.34 for the SWAT and 0.43 and 0.45 for the ANN model. SWAT model performance was affected by snowmelt events during winter months and by the model's inability to adequately simulate base flows. Even though this and other studies using ANN models suggest that these models provide a viable alternative approach for hydrologic and water quality modeling, ANN models in their current form are not spatially distributed watershed modeling systems. However, considering the promising performance of the simple ANN model, this study suggests that the ANN approach warrants further development to explicitly address the spatial distribution of hydrologic/water quality processes within watersheds.     

HYDROLOGIC PARAMETERIZATION OF WATERSHEDS FOR RUNOFF PREDICTION USING SWAT1

ABSTRACT: The use of continuous time, distributed parameter hydrologic models like SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) has opened several opportunities to improve watershed modeling accuracy. However, it has also placed a heavy burden on users with respect to the amount of work involved in parameterizing the watershed in general and in adequately representing the spatial variability of the watershed in particular. Recent developments in Geographical Information Systems (GIS) have alleviated some of the difficulties associated with managing spatial data. However, the user must still choose among various parameterization approaches that are available within the model. This paper describes the important parameterization issues involved when modeling watershed hydrology for runoff prediction using SWAT with emphasis on how to improve model performance without resorting to tedious and arbitrary parameter by parameter calibration. Synthetic and actual watersheds in Indiana and Mississippi were used to illustrate the sensitivity of runoff prediction to spatial variability, watershed decomposition, and spatial and temporal adjustment of curve numbers and return flow contribution. SWAT was also used to predict stream runoff from actual watersheds in Indiana that have extensive subsurface drainage. The results of this study provide useful information for improving SWAT performance in terms of stream runoff prediction in a manner that is particularly useful for modeling ungaged watersheds wherein observed data for calibration is not available.     

EFFECTS OF STATSGO AND SSURGO AS INPUTS ON SWAT MODEL'S SNOWMELT SIMULATION1

ABSTRACT: Soil data comprise a basic input of SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) for a watershed application. For watersheds where site specific soil data are unavailable, the two U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) soil databases, the State Soil Geographic (STATSGO) and Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) databases, may be the best alternatives. Although it has been noted that SWAT models using the STATSGO and SSURGO data may give different simulation results for water, sediment, and agricultural chemical yields, information is scarce on the effects of using these two databases in predicting streamflows that are predominantly generated from melting snow in spring. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of using STATSGO versus SSURGO as an input for the SWAT model's simulation of the streamflows in the upper 45 percent of the Elm River watershed in eastern North Dakota. Designating the model as SWAT‐STATSGO when the STATSGO data were used and SWAT‐SSURGO when the SSURGO data were used, SWAT‐STATSGO and SWAT‐SSURGO were separately calibrated and validated using the observed daily streamflows. The results indicated that SWAT‐SSURGO provided an overall better prediction of the discharges than SWAT‐STATSGO, although both did a good and comparable job of predicting the high streamflows. However, SWAT‐STATSGO predicted the low streamflows more accurately and had a slightly better performance during the validation period. In addition, the discrepancies between the discharges predicted by these two SWAT models tended to be larger at upstream locations than at those farther downstream within the study area.     

Assessment of Future Climate Change Impact on Water Quality of Chungju Lake,South Korea,Using WASP Coupled with SWAT

This study is to evaluate the future potential impact of climate change on the water quality of Chungju Lake using the Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP). The lake has a storage capacity of 2.75 Gm³, maximum water surface of 65.7 km², and forest‐dominant watershed of 6,642 km². The impact on the lake from the watershed was evaluated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The WASP and SWAT were calibrated and validated using the monthly water temperatures from 1998 to 2003, lake water quality data (dissolved oxygen, total nitrogen [T‐N], total phosphorus [T‐P], and chlorophyll‐a [chl‐a]) and daily dam inflow, and monthly stream water quality (sediment, T‐N, and T‐P) data. For the future climate change scenario, the MIROC3.2 HiRes A1B was downscaled for 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s using the Change Factor statistical method. The 2080s temperature and precipitation showed an increase of +4.8°C and +34.4%, respectively, based on a 2000 baseline. For the 2080s watershed T‐N and T‐P loads of up to +87.3 and +19.6%, the 2080s lake T‐N and T‐P concentrations were projected to be 4.00 and 0.030 mg/l from 2.60 and 0.016 mg/l in 2000, respectively. The 2080s chl‐a concentration in the epilimnion and the maximum were 13.97 and 52.45 μg/l compared to 8.64 and 33.48 μg/l in 2000, respectively. The results show that the Chungju Lake will change from its mesotrophic state of 2000 to a eutrophic state by T‐P in the 2020s and by chl‐a in the 2080s. Editor's note: This paper is part of a featured series on Korean Hydrology. The series addresses the need for a new paradigm of river and watershed management for Korea due to climate and land use changes.