Trends in Rainfall Exceedances in the Observed Record in Selected Areas of the United States1

Bonnin, Geoffrey M., Kazungu Maitaria, and Michael Yekta, 2011. Trends in Rainfall Exceedances in the Observed Record in Selected Areas of the United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6): 1173–1182. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00603.x Abstract: Semantic differences have led to a gap in the understanding of the impacts of climate change on precipitation frequency estimates. There is popular perception that heavy rainfalls have become more frequent, and that this trend will increase with global warming. Most of the literature examines this question from the point of view of climatology using definitions of “heavy,”“very heavy,” or “extreme” rainfall, which are different from those commonly used by civil engineers. This article identifies the differences in meaning used by the climate and civil engineering communities and examines trends in the observed record in the frequency of exceedances (not trends in magnitudes). Using concepts recognized as the basis for design of the Nation’s civil infrastructure, we look at trends in the number of exceedances of thresholds for a variety of precipitation frequencies and event durations used by civil engineers. We found that the estimated trends in exceedances at one‐day and multiday durations were statistically significant and increasing for the Ohio River Basin and surrounding states but the reverse was true for the Semiarid Southwest (i.e., not significant and decreasing trends). In addition, we found the magnitude of the trends was small for all but the more frequent events and also small with respect to the uncertainty associated with the precipitation frequency estimates themselves.     

Simulated Impacts of Three Decadal Climate Variability Phenomena on Water Yields in the Missouri River Basin1

Mehta, Vikram M., Norman J. Rosenberg, and Katherin Mendoza, 2011. Simulated Impacts of Three Decadal Climate Variability Phenomena on Water Yields in the Missouri River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):126‐135. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00496.x Abstract: The Missouri River Basin (MRB) is the largest river basin in the United States (U.S.), and is one of the most important crop and livestock‐producing regions in the world. In a previous study of associations between decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena and hydro‐meteorological (HM) variability in the MRB, it was found that positive and negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the tropical Atlantic sea‐surface temperature gradient variability (TAG), and the west Pacific warm pool (WPWP) temperature variability were significantly associated with decadal variability in precipitation and 2‐meter air temperature in the MRB, with combinations of various phases of these DCV phenomena associated with drought, flood, or neutral HM conditions. Here, we report on a methodology developed and applied to assess whether the aforementioned DCVs directly affect the hydrology of the MRB. The Hydrologic Unit Model of the U.S. (HUMUS) was used to simulate water yields in response to realistic values of the PDO, TAG, and WPWP at 75 widely distributed, eight‐digit hydrologic unit areas within the MRB. HUMUS driven by HM anomalies in both the positive and negative phases of the PDO and TAG resulted in major impacts on water yields, as much as ±20% of average water yield in some locations. Impacts of the WPWP were smaller. The combined and cumulative effects of these DCV phenomena on the MRB HM and water availability can be dramatic with important consequences for the MRB.     

Rainfall Interception Based on Indirect Methods: A Case Study in Temperate Forests in Oaxaca,Mexico

Rainfall interception represents the amount of water trapped in natural cover that is not drained directly to the ground. Intercepted rainfall may evaporate after a rain event, making it one of the main drivers of water balance and hydrologic regionalization. This process can be affected by factors such as climate, altitude, vegetation type, and topography. Here is a simple method of calculating rainfall interception in temperate forests using in Santa Maria Yavesia, Oaxaca, and Mexico as an illustrative study area. We used two rain gauges to measure net precipitation (N_p) under the canopy at each study site and one gauge outside the canopy to obtain gross precipitation (G_p). Throughfall (T_h) was indirectly measured using hemispherical photographs. Rainfall interception was obtained through a combination T_h and G_p and N_p. The mean rainfall interception was 50.6% in the Abies forests, 23%–40% in the coniferous‐mixed forests, and 27.4% in the broad‐leaved forests. We classified rainfall events by intensity to determine the effect of canopy structure and precipitation and found that 75% of the events were weak events, 24% were moderate events, and 1% were strong events. In addition, we found that rainfall interception was lower when the intensity of precipitation was higher. Our method can be replicated in different ecosystems worldwide as a tool for assessing the influence of rainfall interception in terms of ecological services.     

新疆精河县近56年来气候变化特征分析

利用精河县1953-2008年的气温和降水资料,通过回归分析、趋势分析和5年滑动平均法分析得出56年来该县的气温和降水总体呈上升趋势,气候呈暖湿化趋势,其中冬季增温明显,秋季降水增加较多。     

Effects of Land Management Change on Spatial Variability of Organic Matter and Nutrients in Paddy Field: A Case Study of Pinghu,China

The Household Responsibility System initiated in the late 1970s in China has brought a profound change to its rural economy. The shift from the collective farming system to individual family farms has changed land management. The change, including fertilization and crop systems, may have significant effects on soil quality and agro-environmental sustainability. However, very little research is being carried out on the impact of reformed land tenure systems on the spatial variability of soil nutrients. In this study, geostatistics was applied to analyze changes in the spatial variability of soil organic matter and nutrients in paddy fields in Pinghu County, China after 20 years of land management change. In 1984 and 2002, 617 and 131 locations were selected, respectively, for collecting surface soil samples to analyze soil organic matter (SOM), total nitrogen (TN), available phosphorus (AP), and available potassium (AK). From 1984 to 2002, variability of the SOM and TN changed from strongly to moderately spatial-dependent, and the variability of AP remained weakly dependent on space, but that of the AK changed from moderately to weakly spatial-dependent. That the trend of the variability of four soil properties in 2002 became weaker than that in 1984 showed that the extrinsic factors (soil management practices, such as fertilization) weakened the effect by intrinsic factors (soil formation factors, such as soil parent materials) owing to a long period of land management change. The temporal geographic maps of the SOM and nutrients spatial distributions suggested that the concentrations of the SOM and nutrients had been changed to different extents during the period. Significant increase in AP and decrease in AK were noted. The changes were likely due to the imbalance between N, P, and K fertilizers and increased grain yield.     

2013年秦皇岛连续两次降水过程对比分析

利用常规气象观测资料、自动站资料及卫星资料,从大尺度环流背景和水汽、动力、热力条件出发,对2013年8月底东北冷涡影响下秦皇岛两次降水过程进行对比分析。结果表明：由于处在东北冷涡发展的不同阶段,中低层温度场配置不同,两次过程降水特点极不相同。8月27日降水是一次连续的区域性降水过程,以层状云降水为主,降水均匀连续,8月31日至9月2日是冷涡后部西北气流影响下的数日局地性对流降水,具有很强的突发性。     

Evaluation of Satellite‐Derived Rainfall Data for Multiple Physio‐Climatic Regions in the Santiago River Basin,Mexico

Assessment of water resources requires reliable rainfall data, and rain gauge networks may not provide adequate spatial representation due to limited point measurements. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) provides rainfall data at global scale, and has been used with good results. However, TRMM data are an indirect measurement of rainfall, and therefore must be validated for its proper use. In this work, a validation scheme was designed and implemented to compare the TRMM Version 7 (V7) monthly rainfall product at different time frames with data measured in two hydrologic subregions of the Santiago River Basin (SRB) in Mexico: Río Alto Santiago and Río Bajo Santiago (RBS). Additionally, three physio‐climatic regions provide an assessment of the interplay of topography, distance from coastal regions, and seasonal weather patterns on the correspondence between both datasets. The TRMM V7 rainfall product exhibited good agreement with the rain gauge data particularly for the RBS and for the whole SRB during wettest summer and autumn seasons. However, strong regional dependence was observed due to differences in climate and topography. Overall, in spite of some noted underestimations, the monthly TRMM V7 rainfall product was found to provide useful information that can be used to complement limited monitoring as is the case of RBS. An improved combined rainfall product could be generated and thus gaining the most benefits from both data sources.     

SUMMER LOW FLOWS IN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE 20TH CENTURY1

ABSTRACT: High springtime river flows came earlier by one to two weeks in large parts of northern New England during the 20th Century. In this study it was hypothesized that late spring/early summer recessional flows and late summer/early fall low flows could also be occurring earlier. This could result in a longer period of low flow recession and a decrease in the magnitude of low flows. To test this hypothesis, variations over time in the magnitude and timing of low flows were analyzed. To help understand the relation between low flows and climatic variables in New England, low flows were correlated with air temperatures and precipitation. Analysis of data from 23 rural, unregulated rivers across New England indicated little evidence of consistent changes in the timing or magnitude of late summer/early fall low flows during the 20th Century. The interannual variability in the timing and magnitude of the low flows in northern New England was explained much more by the interannual variability in precipitation than by the interannual variability of air temperatures. The highest correlation between the magnitude of the low flows and air temperatures was with May through November temperatures (r =?0.37, p= 0.0017), while the highest correlation with precipitation was with July through August precipitation (r = 0.67, p > 0.0001).     

太阳活动与四川盆地气候资源波动

本文应用四川省气象局提供的气候资料,借助于电子计算机,统计分析了太阳黑子位相与四川盆地热量资源、降水资源波动的关系;采用文献[2]的公式,计算了太阳黑子相对数年均值与热量、降水资源的同期及延后相关系数,并进行了周期分析,进而分析其演变趋势及其对农业生产的影响和应采取的对策。     

Analysis of Daily Peaking and Run‐of‐River Operations with Flow Variability Metrics,Considering Subdaily to Seasonal Time Scales

Environmental flows are an important consideration in licensing hydropower projects as operational flow releases can result in adverse conditions for downstream ecological communities. Flow variability assessments have typically focused on pre‐ and post‐dam conditions using metrics based on daily averaged flow values. This study used subdaily and daily flow data to assess environmental flow response to changes in hydropower operations from daily peaking to run‐of‐river. An analysis tool was developed to quantify flow variability metrics and was applied to four hydropower projects. Significant differences were observed between operations at the 99% confidence level in the median flow values using hourly averaged flow datasets. Median daily rise and fall rates decreased on average 34.5 and 27.9%, respectively, whereas median hourly rise and fall rates decreased on average 50.1 and 50.6%, respectively. Differences in operational flow regimes were more pronounced in the hourly averaged flow datasets and less pronounced or nonexistent in the daily averaged flow datasets. These outcomes have implications for the development of ecology‐flow relationships that quantify effects of flow on processes such as fish stranding and displacement, along with habitat stability. Results indicate that flow variability statistics should be quantified using subdaily datasets to accurately represent the nature of hydropower operations, especially for daily peaking facilities.     

Decoupling Streamflow Responses to Climate Variability and Land Use/Cover Changes in a Watershed in Northern China

Restored annual streamflow (Q_r) and measured daily streamflow of the Chaohe watershed located in northern China and associated long‐term climate and land use/cover data were used to explore the effects of land use/cover change and climate variability on the streamflow during 1961‐2009. There were no significant changes in annual precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration, whereas Q_r decreased significantly by 0.81 mm/yr (p < 0.001) over the study period with a change point in 1999. We used 1961‐1998 as the baseline period (BP) and 1999‐2009 the change period (CP). The mean Q_r during the CP decreased by 39.4 mm compared with that in the BP. From 1979 to 2009, the grassland area declined by 69.6%, and the forest and shrublands increased by 105.4 and 73.1%, respectively. The land use/cover change and climate variability contributed for 58.4 and 41.6% reduction in mean annual Q_r, respectively. Compared with the BP, median and high flows in the CP decreased by 38.8 and up to 75.5%, respectively. The study concludes that large‐scale ecological restoration and watershed management in northern China has greatly decreased water yield and reduced high flows due to the improved land cover by afforestation leading to higher water loss through evapotranspiration. At a large watershed scale, land use/cover change could play as much of an important role as climate variability on water resources.     

Streamflow Changes in the South Atlantic,United States During the Mid‐ and Late 20th Century1

Abstract: Repeated severe droughts over the last decade in the South Atlantic have raised concern that streamflow may be systematically decreasing, possibly due to climate variability. We examined the monthly and annual trends of streamflow, precipitation, and temperature in the South Atlantic for the time periods: 1934‐2005, 1934‐1969, and 1970‐2005. Streamflow and climate (temperature and precipitation) trends transitioned ca. 1970. From 1934 to 1969, streamflow and precipitation increased in southern regions and decreased in northern regions; temperature decreased throughout the South Atlantic. From 1970 to 2005, streamflow decreased, precipitation decreased, and temperature increased throughout the South Atlantic. It is unclear whether these will be continuing trends or simply part of a long‐term climatic oscillation. Whether these streamflow trends have been driven by climatic or anthropogenic changes, water resources management faces challenging prospects to adapt to decadal‐scale persistently wet and dry hydrologic conditions.     

秦皇岛地区气候资源及农业气候资源特征分析

利用近50 a秦皇岛气象资料,对该地区气候资源及农业气候资源特征进行了分析总结。结果表明:秦皇岛地区年降水量650～700 mm左右,呈减少趋势。全年80%保证率的降水量为425 mm,存在供需矛盾。蒸发量较降水量明显偏多,直接决定了该地区土壤在自然状态下绝大部分时段处于干旱状态。年平均气温10℃左右,呈上升趋势。平均年太阳辐射总量为5 154 MJ/m2,太阳辐射资源较丰富。秦皇岛地区农时较长,气温稳定通过10℃期间历时192 d,可以实行短生育期作物一年二熟或套作二熟。     

Spatial and Temporal Variations in Eastern U.S. Hydrology: Responses to Global Climate Variability

Coastal ecosystems are dependent on terrestrial freshwater export which is affected by both climate trends and natural climate variability. However, the relative role of these factors is not clear. Here, both climate trends and internal climate variabilities at different time scales are related to variations in terrestrial freshwater export into the eastern United States (U.S.) coastal region. For the recent 35‐year period, the intensified hydro‐meteorological processes (annual precipitation or evapotranspiration) may explain the observed streamflow variability in the northeast. However, in the southeast, streamflow is positively correlated with climate variability induced by the Pacific Ocean conditions (El Nino‐Southern Oscillation [ENSO] and Pacific Decadal Oscillation) rather than Atlantic Ocean conditions (Atlantic Multi‐decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation). The centroid location for volume of terrestrial freshwater export integrated along the eastern U.S. has a positive temporal trend and is negatively correlated with ENSO conditions, suggesting the northward trend in freshwater export to U.S. eastern coast may be disturbed by the natural climate variability, especially ENSO conditions, i.e., the center of freshwater mass moves southward (northward) during El Nino (La Nina) years. The results indicate the spatial and temporal variations in freshwater export from the eastern U.S. are affected by both climate change and inter‐annual climate variability during the recent 35‐year period (1980‐2014).     

Analyzing the Variability of Remote Sensing and Hydrologic Model Evapotranspiration Products in a Watershed in Michigan

The goal of this paper was to statistically explore the spatiotemporal performance of remotely sensed actual evapotranspiration (ETa) datasets and a remotely sensed ensemble in a region that lacks observed data. The remotely sensed datasets were further compared with ETa results from a physically based hydrologic model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) to examine the differences and determine the level of agreement between the ETa datasets and the model outputs. ETa datasets were compared on temporal (i.e., monthly and seasonal basis) and spatial (i.e., landuse) scales at both watershed and subbasin levels. The results showed a lack of consistent similarities and differences among the datasets when evaluating the monthly ETa variations; however, the seasonal aggregated data presented more consistent similarities and differences during the spring and summer compared to the fall and winter. Meanwhile, spatial analysis of the datasets showed the MOD16A2 500 m ETa product was the most versatile of the tested datasets, being able to differentiate between landuses during all seasons. Furthermore, the use of an averaging ensemble was able to improve overall ETa performance in the study area. This study showed that the remotely sensed ETa products are not similar throughout the year, but the appropriate application periods for different ETa products were identified. Finally, spatial variabilities of the ETa products are more in tune with landuse and climate characteristics.     

Variability and Trends in Runoff Efficiency in the Conterminous United States

Variability and trends in water‐year runoff efficiency (RE) — computed as the ratio of water‐year runoff (streamflow per unit area) to water‐year precipitation — in the conterminous United States (CONUS) are examined for the 1951 through 2012 period. Changes in RE are analyzed using runoff and precipitation data aggregated to United States Geological Survey 8‐digit hydrologic cataloging units (HUs). Results indicate increases in RE for some regions in the north‐central CONUS and large decreases in RE for the south‐central CONUS. The increases in RE in the north‐central CONUS are explained by trends in climate, whereas the large decreases in RE in the south‐central CONUS likely are related to groundwater withdrawals from the Ogallala aquifer to support irrigated agriculture.     

Long-Term Relationships Between Ocean Variability and Water Resources in Northeastern Utah1

Tingstad, Abbie H. and Glen M. MacDonald, 2010. Long-Term Relationships Between Ocean Variability and Water Resources in Northeastern Utah. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(5):987-1002. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00471.x Abstract: The Uinta Mountains in the northwestern Colorado River Basin are an important source of water for Utah and the western United States. This article examines 20th Century hydrology in the Uinta Mountains region in the context of the previous four to eight centuries as well as possible relationships with Pacific and Atlantic Ocean variability using new tree-ring based reconstructions for streamflow and snowpack. The 20th Century appears to have been unusually wet compared with previous centuries. Relationships between hydrology in the region and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) are largely insignificant in instrumental datasets but may have been stronger, although inconsistent, over the longer time spans represented by the paleoclimate records. Impacts of individual modes of sea surface temperature variability may sometimes be enhanced by periods when climate forcing by ENSO, PDO, and/or AMO coincide. Such episodes are associated with deviations from mean hydrology as high as +14% and as low as −18%. The 20th Century could be a misleading benchmark to base water resource estimates upon and flexible water management strategies are necessary to take into account the large range of natural variability observed in the longer-term hydroclimatology as well as the challenges to predictability due to the apparently complex and inconsistent influence of ocean-driven variability.     

Hydrological Variability and Uncertainty of Lower Missouri River Basin Under Changing Climate

The lower Missouri River Basin has experienced increasing streamflow and flooding events, with higher risk of extreme hydrologic impacts under changing climate. The newly available North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climate projections were used as atmospheric forcing for Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model which runs with varying potential evapotranspiration (PET) methods to assess the hydrological change and uncertainty of 2040‐2069 over 1968‐1997. The NARCCAP temperature and precipitation predictions were refined using a bias correction method. The results show that, following the seasonal variability of precipitation, various water fluxes would increase in most seasons except the summer. Expected precipitation tends to increase in intensity with little change in frequency, triggering faster surface water concentration to form floods. The greatest streamflow increase would occur from November to February, increasing by around 10% on average. An increase of 3% occurs in the other months except for July and August in which river discharge decreases by around 2%. The climate predictions contribute more uncertainty annually, but PET algorithms gain more influence in winter or when other weather factors such as wind play a relatively more important role on evapotranspiration flux. This study predicts an even wetter environment compared to the historically very wet period, with the possibility of more flooding.     

A Hydrologic Data Screening Procedure for Exploring Monotonic Trends and Shifts in Rainfall and Runoff Patterns

A thorough understanding of past and present hydrologic responses to changes in precipitation patterns is crucial for predicting future conditions. The main objectives of this study were to determine temporal changes in rainfall‐runoff relationship and to identify significant trends and abrupt shifts in rainfall and runoff time series. Ninety‐year rainfall and runoff time series datasets from the Gasconade and Meramec watersheds in east‐central Missouri were used to develop data screening procedure to assess changes in the rainfall and runoff temporal patterns. A statistically significant change in mean and variance was detected in 1980 in the rainfall and runoff time series within both watersheds. In addition, both the rainfall and runoff time series indicated the presence of nonstationary attributes such as statistically significant monotonic trends and/or change in mean and variance, which should be taken into consideration when using the time series to predict future scenarios. The annual peak runoff and the annual low flow in the Meramec watershed showed significant temporal changes compared to that in the Gasconade watershed. Water loss in both watersheds was found to be significantly increasing which is potentially due to the increase in groundwater pumping for water supply purposes.