Impact of Climate and Land Use Change on Streamflow and Sediment Yield in a Snow‐Dominated Semiarid Mountainous Watershed

This study investigates the impact of climate and land use change on the magnitude and timing of streamflow and sediment yield in a snow‐dominated mountainous watershed in Salt Lake County, Utah using a scenario approach and the Hydrological Simulation Program — FORTRAN model for the 2040s (year 2035–2044) and 2090s (year 2085–2094). The climate scenarios were statistically and dynamically downscaled from global climate models. Land use and land cover (LULC) changes were estimated in two ways — from a regional planning scenario and from a deterministic model. Results indicate the mean daily streamflow in the Jordan River watershed will increase by an amount ranging from 11.2% to 14.5% in the 2040s and from 6.8% to 15.3% in the 2090s. The respective increases in sediment load in the 2040s and 2090s is projected to be 6.7% and 39.7% in the canyons and about 7.4% to 14.2% in the Jordan valley. The historical 50th percentile timing of streamflow and sediment load is projected to be shifted earlier by three to four weeks by mid‐century and four to eight weeks by late‐century. The projected streamflow and sediment load results establish a nonlinear relationship with each other and are highly sensitive to projected climate change. The predicted changes in streamflow and sediment yield will have implications for water supply, flood control and stormwater management.     

Considering Climate Change in the Estimation of Long‐Term Flood Risks of Devils Lake in North Dakota

Terminal lakes are impacted by regional changes in climate. Devils Lake (DL), North Dakota, United States (U.S.), is a case in which a prolonged shift in the precipitation pattern resulted in a 10‐m water‐level rise over the past two decades, which cost over one billion U.S. dollars in mitigation. Currently, DL is 1.5 m from an uncontrolled overspill to the nearby Sheyenne River, which could lead to unprecedented environmental, social, and economic costs. Water outlets recently implemented in the lake to slow the water‐level rise and prevent an uncontrolled overspill are subject to significant concerns over the introduction of invasive species and downstream water quality. We developed a hydrological model of the DL basin using the soil and water assessment tool and analyzed DL's overspill probability using an ensemble of statistically downscaled General Circulation Model (GCM) projections of the future climate. The results indicate a significant likelihood (7.3‐20.0%) of overspill in the next few decades in the absence of outlets; some members of the GCM integration ensemble suggest an exceedance probability of over 85.0 and 95.0% for the 2020s and 2050s, respectively. Full‐capacity outlets radically reduce the probability of DL overspill and are able to partially mitigate the problem by decreasing the average lake level by approximately 1.9 and 1.5 m in the 2020s and 2050s, respectively.     

A Modeling System to Assess Land Cover Land Use Change Effects on SAV Habitat in the Mobile Bay Estuary

Estuarine ecosystems are largely influenced by watersheds directly connected to them. In the Mobile Bay, Alabama watersheds we examined the effect of land cover and land use (LCLU) changes on discharge rate, water properties, and submerged aquatic vegetation, including freshwater macrophytes and seagrasses, throughout the estuary. LCLU scenarios from 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030 were used to influence watershed and hydrodynamic models and evaluate the impact of LCLU change on shallow aquatic ecosystems. Overall, our modeling results found that LCLU changes increased freshwater flows into Mobile Bay altering temperature, salinity, and total suspended sediments (TSS). Increased urban land uses coupled with decreased agricultural/pasture lands reduced TSS in the water column. However, increased urbanization or agricultural/pasture land coupled with decreased forest land resulted in higher TSS concentrations. Higher sediment loads were usually strongly correlated with higher TSS levels, except in areas where a large extent of wetlands retained sediment discharged during rainfall events. The modeling results indicated improved water clarity in the shallow aquatic regions of Mississippi Sound and degraded water clarity in the Wolf Bay estuary. This integrated modeling approach will provide new knowledge and tools for coastal resource managers to manage shallow aquatic habitats that provide critical ecosystem services.     

Climate and Land Use Effects on Hydrologic Processes in a Primarily Rain‐Fed,Agricultural Watershed

Anticipating changes in hydrologic variables is essential for making socioeconomic water resource decisions. This study aims to assess the potential impact of land use and climate change on the hydrologic processes of a primarily rain‐fed, agriculturally based watershed in Missouri. A detailed evaluation was performed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for the near future (2020–2039) and mid‐century (2040–2059). Land use scenarios were mapped using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects model. Ensemble results, based on 19 climate models, indicated a temperature increase of about 1.0°C in near future and 2.0°C in mid‐century. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed distinct annual and seasonal hydrologic variations. Annual precipitation was projected to increase from 6% to 7%, which resulted in 14% more spring days with soil water content equal to or exceeding field capacity in mid‐century. However, summer precipitation was projected to decrease, a critical factor for crop growth. Higher temperatures led to increased potential evapotranspiration during the growing season. Combined with changes in precipitation patterns, this resulted in an increased need for irrigation by 38 mm representing a 10% increase in total irrigation water use. Analysis from multiple land use scenarios indicated converting agriculture to forest land can potentially mitigate the effects of climate change on streamflow, thus ensuring future water availability.     

Regional Blue and Green Water Balances and Use by Selected Crops in the U.S.

The availability of freshwater is a prerequisite for municipal development and agricultural production, especially in the arid and semiarid portions of the western United States (U.S.). Agriculture is the leading user of water in the U.S. Agricultural water use can be partitioned into green (derived from rainfall) and blue water (irrigation). Blue water can be further subdivided by source. In this research, we develop a hydrologic balance by 8‐Digit Hydrologic Unit Code using a combination of Soil and Water Assessment Tool simulations and available human water use estimates. These data are used to partition agricultural groundwater usage by sustainability and surface water usage by local source or importation. These predictions coupled with reported agricultural yield data are used to predict the virtual water contained in each ton of corn, wheat, sorghum, and soybeans produced and its source. We estimate that these four crops consume 480 km³ of green water annually and 23 km³ of blue water, 12 km³ of which is from groundwater withdrawal. Regional trends in blue water use from groundwater depletion highlight heavy usage in the High Plains, and small pockets throughout the western U.S. This information is presented to inform water resources debate by estimating the cost of agricultural production in terms of water regionally. This research illustrates the variable water content of the crops we consume and export, and the source of that water.     

Response of Nitrogen Loading to the Chesapeake Bay to Source Reduction and Land Use Change Scenarios: A SPARROW‐Informed Analysis

In response to concerns regarding the health of streams and receiving waters, the United States Environmental Protection Agency established a total maximum daily load for nitrogen in the Chesapeake Bay watershed for which practices must be in place by 2025 resulting in an expected 25% reduction in load from 2009 levels. The response of total nitrogen (TN) loads delivered to the Bay to nine source reduction and land use change scenarios was estimated using a Spatially Referenced Regression on Watershed Attributes model. The largest predicted reduction in TN load delivered to the Bay was associated with a scenario in which the mass of TN as fertilizer applied to agricultural lands was decreased. A 25% decrease in the mass of TN applied as fertilizer resulted in a predicted reduction in TN loading to the Bay of 11.3%, which was 2.5–5 times greater than the reductions predicted by other scenarios. Eliminating fertilizer application to all agricultural land in the watershed resulted in a predicted reduction in TN load to the Bay of 45%. It was estimated that an approximate 25% reduction in TN loading to the Bay could be achieved by eliminating fertilizer applied to the 7% of subwatersheds contributing the greatest fertilizer‐sourced TN loads to the Bay. These results indicate that management strategies aimed at decreasing loading from a small number of subwatersheds may be effective for reducing TN loads to the Bay, and similar analyses are possible in other watersheds.     

兰西城市群县域土地利用效率时空差异研究

在考虑绿色发展内涵的基础上,运用SBM-Undesirable模型测度了2006—2018年兰西城市群县域土地利用效率值,并采用泰尔指数、空间自相关方法揭示其时空差异特征。结果表明:①2006—2018年兰西城市群县域土地利用效率稳步提升,区域差异先扩大后缩小。②兰西城市群县域土地利用效率呈现“中部高—外围低、西高东低、南北分异”的空间差异规律,两省域呈现“西—东”的递减规律。③兰西城市群县域土地利用效率空间集聚特征显著,局部范畴上高—高集聚区在中部地区较为典型,低—低集聚区出现由东南向西南的扩散现象。     

Effects of Land Use and Climate Change on Stream Temperature I: Daily Flow and Stream Temperature Projections

Freshwater mussels (order Unionida) are a highly imperiled group of organisms that are at risk from rising stream temperatures (T). There is a need to understand the potential effects of land use (LU) and climate change (CC) on stream T and have a measure of uncertainty. We used available downscaled climate projections and LU change simulations to simulate the potential effects on average daily stream T from 2020 to 2060. Monte Carlo simulations were run, and a novel technique to analyze results was used to assess changes in hydrologic and stream T response. Simulations of daily mean T were used as input to our stochastic hourly T model. CC effects were on average two orders of magnitude greater than LU impacts on mean daily stream T. LU change affected stream T primarily in headwater streams, on average up to 2.1°C over short durations, and projected CC affected stream T, on average 2.1‐3.3°C by 2060. Daily mean flow and T ratios from Monte Carlo simulations indicated greater variance in the response of streamflow (up to 55%) to LU change than in the response of stream T (up to 9%), and greater variance in headwater stream segments compared to higher order stream segments for both streamflow and T response. Simulations indicated that combined effects of climate and LU change were not additive, suggesting a complex interaction and that forecasting long‐term stream T response requires simulating CC and LU change simultaneously.     

Modeling Changes to Streamflow,Sediment, and Nutrient Loading from Land Use Changes Due to Potential Natural Gas Development

Natural gas development using hydraulic fracturing has many potential environmental impacts, but among the most certain is the land disturbance required to build the well pads and other infrastructure required to drill and extract the gas. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to investigate how natural gas development could impact streamflow and sediment, total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorous (TP) loadings in the upper Delaware River Basin (DRB), a relatively undeveloped watershed of 7,950 km² that lies above the Marcellus Shale formation. If gas development was permitted, our projections show the DRB could experience development of over 600 well pads to extract natural gas at build out, which, with supporting infrastructure (roads, gathering pipelines), could convert over 5,000 ha from existing land uses in the study area. In subbasins with development activity we found sediment, TN, and TP yields could increase by an average of 15, 0.08, and 0.03 kg/ha/yr, respectively (an increase of 2, 3, and 15%, respectively) for each one percent of subbasin land area converted into natural gas infrastructure. At the study area outlet on the Delaware River at Port Jervis, New York, we found increases in the annual average streamflow and sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loads of up to 0.01, 0.2, 0.2, and 1%, respectively, for a rapid development year, and 0.08, 1.3, 2.0, and 11%, respectively, for the full development scenario. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

三峡库区土地利用变化的特征与趋势

利用1995年和2000年TM卫星影像资料和马尔柯夫链的理论，分析了三峡库区土地利用变化的特点和演变趋势，结果表明，在未来的5-10年内，三峡库区土地利用非农化速率减少，但占用农地面积仍然较大，农业用地结构不合理。     

Use of SWAT to Estimate Spatial Scaling of Phosphorus Export Coefficients and Load Reductions Due to Agricultural BMPS

Phosphorus export coefficients (kg/ha/yr) from selected land covers, also called phosphorus yields, tend to get smaller as contributing areas get larger because some of the phosphorus mobilized on local fields gets trapped during transport to regional watershed outlets. Phosphorus traps include floodplains, wetlands, and lakes, which can then become impaired by eutrophication. The Sunrise River watershed in east central Minnesota, United States, has numerous lakes impaired by excess phosphorus. The Sunrise is tributary to the St. Croix River, whose much larger watershed is terminated by Lake St. Croix, also impaired by excess phosphorus. To support management of these impairments at both local and regional scales, a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model of the Sunrise watershed was constructed to estimate load reductions due to selected best management practices (BMPs) and to determine how phosphorus export coefficients scaled with contributing area. In this study, agricultural BMPs, including vegetated filter strips, grassed waterways, and reduction of soil‐phosphorus concentrations reduced phosphorus loads by 4‐20%, with similar percentage reductions at field and watershed spatial scales. Phosphorus export coefficients from cropland in rotation with corn, soybeans, and alfalfa decreased as a negative power function of contributing area, from an average of 2.12 kg/ha/yr at the upland field scale (~0.6 km²) to 0.63 kg/ha/yr at the major river basin scale (20,000 km²). Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Spatial and Temporal Variations in Eastern U.S. Hydrology: Responses to Global Climate Variability

Coastal ecosystems are dependent on terrestrial freshwater export which is affected by both climate trends and natural climate variability. However, the relative role of these factors is not clear. Here, both climate trends and internal climate variabilities at different time scales are related to variations in terrestrial freshwater export into the eastern United States (U.S.) coastal region. For the recent 35‐year period, the intensified hydro‐meteorological processes (annual precipitation or evapotranspiration) may explain the observed streamflow variability in the northeast. However, in the southeast, streamflow is positively correlated with climate variability induced by the Pacific Ocean conditions (El Nino‐Southern Oscillation [ENSO] and Pacific Decadal Oscillation) rather than Atlantic Ocean conditions (Atlantic Multi‐decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation). The centroid location for volume of terrestrial freshwater export integrated along the eastern U.S. has a positive temporal trend and is negatively correlated with ENSO conditions, suggesting the northward trend in freshwater export to U.S. eastern coast may be disturbed by the natural climate variability, especially ENSO conditions, i.e., the center of freshwater mass moves southward (northward) during El Nino (La Nina) years. The results indicate the spatial and temporal variations in freshwater export from the eastern U.S. are affected by both climate change and inter‐annual climate variability during the recent 35‐year period (1980‐2014).     

2000-2009年鄂南丘陵山区耕地集约利用变化分析

耕地集约利用是可持续发展的必然要求.从耕地集约利用内涵入手,通过构建耕地利用集约度的评价指标体系,采用主成分分析法对鄂南丘陵山区2000-2009年耕地集约利用进行了评价,并对耕地集约利用变化原因进行了分析.结果表明,10年间鄂南丘陵耕地的集约利用程度呈波动上升的趋势.目前阻碍鄂南丘陵山区耕地集约利用的因素主要为农田水利投入不足,占用耕地严重等,因此应加强耕地保护力度,积极进行耕地整治,加强水利基础设施建设,建立耕地环境质量安全体系.     

彭州市土地利用变化及驱动力分析

依据1992～2003土地利用变更数据，分析彭州市土地利用动态、土地利用程度和土地利用区域差异等变化情况。总结了引起土地利用变化的主要驱动力是地形条件、人口增长、工业化和城镇化、第三产业的发展、交通条件、政策因素等六个方面，并针对目前土地利用中存在的主要问题，提出相应的措施，以期对彭州市社会经济发展提供参考。     

东北地区典型农区土地利用变化对农业扩张和气候变化的响应研究

大规模的农业扩张和全球气候变化导致东北地区发生剧烈的土地利用/土地覆盖变化。本研究分析了研究区1976—2008年的土地利用变化和生长季各月气温的变化趋势,并结合农业扩张程度,探究LUCC对农业扩张和气候变化的响应,为指导农业发展规划和保障国家粮食安全提供理论依据。结果表明,1976—2008年农田面积逐步增加,生长季气温一直呈上升趋势。1976—2001年生长季气温的上升趋势不稳定,气温变化程度较大;2001—2008年,农业扩张放缓,生长季气温上升趋势显著,且上升趋势一直增加,气温变化比上一时期更稳定;且这两个时期农业扩张和气候变化对土地利用强度的影响在南北和东西方向上均存在明显差异。     

Modeling Hydrological and Environmental Consequences of Climate Change and Urbanization in the Boise River Watershed,Idaho

The potential impacts driven by climate variability and urbanization in the Boise River Watershed (BRW), located in southwestern Idaho, are evaluated. The outcomes from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and land use and land cover (LULC) analysis have been incorporated into a hydrological and environmental modeling framework to characterize how climate variability and urbanization can affect the local hydrology and environment at the BRW. The combined impacts of future climate and LULC change are also evaluated relative to the historical baseline conditions. For modeling exercises, Hydrological Simulation Program‐Fortran (HSPF) is used in parallel computing and statistical techniques, including spatial downscaling and bias correlation, are employed to evaluate climate consequences derived from GCMs as well. The implications of climate variability and land use change driven by urbanization are then observed to evaluate how these overall global challenges can affect water quantity and quality conditions at the BRW. The results show the combined impacts of both climate change and urbanization can lead to more seasonal variability of streamflow (from ?27.5% to 12.5%) and water quality, including sediment (from ?36.5% to 49.3%), nitrogen (from ?24% to 124.2%), and phosphorus (from ?13.3% to 21.2%) during summer and early fall over the next several decades.     

Effect of the Spatial Variability of Land Use,Soil Type,and Precipitation on Streamflows in Small Watersheds1

Abstract: The spatial variability of the data used in models includes the spatial discretization of the system into subsystems, the data resolution, and the spatial distribution of hydrologic features and parameters. In this study, we investigate the effect of the spatial distribution of land use, soil type, and precipitation on the simulated flows at the outlet of “small watersheds” (i.e., watersheds with times of concentration shorter than the model computational time step). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool model was used to estimate runoff and hydrographs. Different representations of the spatial data resulted in comparable model performances and even the use of uniform land use and soil type maps, instead of spatially distributed, was not noticeable. It was found that, although spatially distributed data help understand the characteristics of the watershed and provide valuable information to distributed hydrologic models, when the watershed is small, realistic representations of the spatial data do not necessarily improve the model performance. The results obtained from this study provide insights on the relevance of taking into account the spatial distribution of land use, soil type, and precipitation when modeling small watersheds.     

Hydrologic Sensitivity to Climate and Land Use Changes in the Santiam River Basin,Oregon

Future changes in water supply are likely to vary across catchments due to a river basin's sensitivity to climate and land use changes. In the Santiam River Basin (SRB), Oregon, we examined the role elevation, intensity of water demands, and apparent intensity of groundwater interactions, as characteristics that influence sensitivity to climate and land use changes, on the future availability of water resources. In the context of water scarcity, we compared the relative impacts of changes in water supply resulting from climate and land use changes to the impacts of spatially distributed but steady water demand. Results highlight how seasonal runoff responses to climate and land use changes vary across subbasins with differences in hydrogeology, land use, and elevation. Across the entire SRB, water demand exerts the strongest influence on basin sensitivity to water scarcity, regardless of hydrogeology, with the highest demand located in the lower reaches dominated by agricultural and urban land uses. Results also indicate that our catchment with mixed rain‐snow hydrology and with mixed surface‐groundwater may be more sensitive to climate and land use changes, relative to the catchment with snowmelt‐dominated runoff and substantial groundwater interactions. Results highlight the importance of evaluating basin sensitivity to change in planning for planning water resources storage and allocation across basins in variable hydrogeologic settings.     

Decoupling Streamflow Responses to Climate Variability and Land Use/Cover Changes in a Watershed in Northern China

Restored annual streamflow (Q_r) and measured daily streamflow of the Chaohe watershed located in northern China and associated long‐term climate and land use/cover data were used to explore the effects of land use/cover change and climate variability on the streamflow during 1961‐2009. There were no significant changes in annual precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration, whereas Q_r decreased significantly by 0.81 mm/yr (p < 0.001) over the study period with a change point in 1999. We used 1961‐1998 as the baseline period (BP) and 1999‐2009 the change period (CP). The mean Q_r during the CP decreased by 39.4 mm compared with that in the BP. From 1979 to 2009, the grassland area declined by 69.6%, and the forest and shrublands increased by 105.4 and 73.1%, respectively. The land use/cover change and climate variability contributed for 58.4 and 41.6% reduction in mean annual Q_r, respectively. Compared with the BP, median and high flows in the CP decreased by 38.8 and up to 75.5%, respectively. The study concludes that large‐scale ecological restoration and watershed management in northern China has greatly decreased water yield and reduced high flows due to the improved land cover by afforestation leading to higher water loss through evapotranspiration. At a large watershed scale, land use/cover change could play as much of an important role as climate variability on water resources.     

Land Use and Land Cover Change Analysis and Prediction in the Upper Reaches of the Minjiang River,China

Scientists have aimed at exploring land use and land cover change (LUCC) and modeling future landscape pattern in order to improve our understanding of the causes and consequences of these phenomena. This study addresses LUCC in the upper reaches of Minjiang River, China, from 1974 to 2000. Based on remotely sensed images, LUCC and landscape pattern change were assessed using cross-tabulation and landscape metrics. Then, using the CLUE-S model, changes in area of four types of land cover were predicted for two scenarios considering forest polices over the next 20 years. Results showed that forestland decreased from 1974 to 2000 due to continuous deforestation, while grassland and shrubland increased correspondingly. At the same time, the farmland and settlement land increased dramatically. Landscape fragmentation in the study area accompanied these changes. Forestland, grassland, and farmland take opposite trajectories in the two scenarios, as does landscape fragmentation. LUCC has led to ecological consequences, such as biodiversity loss and lowering of ecological carrying capacity.