The role of uncertainty in future costs of key CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> abatement technologies: a sensitivity analysis with a global computable general equilibrium model

Deep emission cuts rely on the use of low carbon technologies like renewable energy or carbon capture and storage. There is considerable uncertainty about their future costs. We carry out a sensitivity analysis based on Gauss Quadrature for cost parameters describing these technologies in order to evaluate the effect of the uncertainty on total and marginal mitigation costs as well as composition changes in the energy system. Globally, effects in total cost often average out, but different regions are affected quite differently from the underlying uncertainty in costs for key abatement technologies. Regions can be either affected because they are well suited to deploy a technology for geophysical reasons or because of repercussions through international energy markets. The absolute impact of uncertainty on consumption increases over the time horizon and with the ambition of emission reductions. Uncertainty in abatement costs relative to expected abatement costs are however larger under a moderate ambition climate policy scenario because in this case the marginal abatement occurs in the electricity sector where the cost uncertainty is implemented. Under more ambitious climate policy in line with the two degree target, the electricity sector is always decarbonized by 2050, hence uncertainty has less effect on the electricity mix. The findings illustrate the need for regional results as global averages can hide distributional consequences on technological uncertainty.     

Exploring innovation in the automotive industry: new technologies for cleaner cars

The concept of innovation has been used in a wide range of contexts and the theoretical development has proven to be extremely valuable to provide important insights into intra-market competition, strategy and regulatory policy. The automotive industry offers a fertile terrain for progress of the uncompleted theory building process of innovation, especially with the introduction of alternative fuels and alternative powertrain technologies.This paper investigates the concept of innovation in the context of the modern automotive industry, by focusing on the notion of regulatory innovation of alternative fuels and alternative powertrain technologies. For the purpose of analysing this issue, special attention is given to the concepts of radical and incremental innovation, which are applied to existing alternative fuels and alternative powertrain technologies, including hybrids, biofuels and hydrogen power. The article explores these three categories looking at representative case studies: the Brazilian ethanol experience with biofuels, the development of the Toyota hybrid vehicle and the technological development of hydrogen fuel cells. These categories have been selected because they represent the most important advances in cleaner production for the automotive industry.     

Innovations in the water chain – experiences in The Netherlands

Innovations in water chain are discussed based on experiences in the Netherlands. The available and new technological options, as well as their dissemination in the Netherlands, are presented for the prevailing system with add-on technologies (elongation), and for the emerging separation system with technologies at the source. Numerous new options are available for both systems but these options are rarely used. The low use is explained using economic theories and with practical examples from the Netherlands. In order to foster innovations, the mainstream, evolutionary, and behavioral theories pinpoint respectively the pricing of common goods, broad support of concerted action, and support for innovators’ entry. These actions may all be needed. Experiences with a stakeholder cluster in water management suggest that markets for high value water use invoke innovations and low-cost technology adaptations. The systematic development of services that foster high value water-based activities is recommended.     

区域大气污染物总量控制技术与示范研究

分析了我国的大气环境问题和特征,剖析了大气污染的成因;重点介绍了区域大气污染物总量控制技术研究中,大气污染物排放清单的编制技术,多尺度的空气质量模拟技术,基于现代控制理论的大气环境容量优化技术,基于环境容量和排放绩效的总量分配技术,多种总量监控方法,科学有效的总量控制管理机制和规则等的关键技术、技术突破、主要研究与理论创新及成果的应用与示范;紧密结合国家空气环境质量管理和大气污染控制的需要,提出了我国大气环境管理、政策和大气环境科学研究的建议.      

A study of reverse logistics flow management in vehicle battery industries in the midwest of the state of São Paulo (Brazil)

Having the objective of minimizing costs and improving their image in the consumer and export market, car battery industries began to seek environmental alternatives geared towards sustainable development. Reverse logistics flow represents an unprecedented tool for the economic and operational development of company activities, as well as a differential in the search for competitive advantages through environmentally correct practices. The aim of this paper is to describe the reverse logistics chain adopted by automotive battery industries in the midwest of the state of São Paulo, proposing a reverse logistics framework for small manufacturers that creates actions aimed at not harming the environment.     

Commercial development of energy—environmentally sound technologies for the auto-industry: the case of fuel cells

The economic importance of energy and environmental issues is continuously increasing, affecting both process and product design in business. The energy crisis in California in 2001 made this basic issue universal. New technologies are expected to reduce pollution derived both from production processes and products, with costs that are still unknown and in competition with more mature technologies high. Nevertheless, until now there is still little, but growing knowledge concerning the process of technological innovation in the fields of energy and environment.In this paper we analyze the development of zinc air fuel cell (ZAFC) and its transfer from a research laboratory to potential mass production. ZAFC are a new ‘environmentally sound technology’, proven to have commercial value, that can be used for substituting internal combustion engines (ICEs) and meeting zero emission vehicles (ZEV) regulations. Although ZAFC performances are higher than traditional electric batteries ones, commercial costs are still high. Hence the pathway to mass production may come from stationary application of fuel cells for power.In contrast to the conventional ‘paradigmatic’ approach, we argue that the existing economic and organizational literature concerning technological innovation is not able to fully explain steps followed in commercializing energy—environmentally sound technologies. Existing models mainly consider adopting problems, which are due to market uncertainty, weak application, lack of a dominant design, and problems in reconfiguring existing organizational routines. Above all ‘market power’ exists in terms of control over technological innovation and its commercial application. Barriers are erected that prevent new technologies such as fuel cells from becoming adapted. Through pro-active government intervention, such as the case in California, new advanced technologies can move rapidly into the marketplace.From this discussion we draw some conclusions and issues for further research concerning policy making for sustaining the process of technological transfer and firms’ strategies in technological innovation.     

水污染防治领域的技术预见

针对水污染防治领域开展了技术预见研究。通过德尔菲调查法所获数据及其结果分析,确定出排名最高的10项技术课题,作为未来水污染防治领域的关键技术课题,其中共涉及6个领域:城镇污水处理与回用,饮用水净化与安全,工业废水处理与回用,农村、农业污水处理与回用,地下水体污染控制以及微量有毒物质的防控。分析表明,10项关键技术课题的预期实现时间集中在2014年-2018年;领先国家或地区主要是美国、日本和欧盟;发展路径选择最多的是集成创新的方式;技术本身可行性、市场需求、政策支持是最主要的3个制约其发展的因素;目前所处的阶段主要是实际应用阶段。     

Hotspots and trends of biological water treatment based on bibliometric review and patents analysis

In order to reveal the hotspots and trends of biological water treatment from the perspectives of scientific and technological innovation, both of the bibliometric review and patents analysis were performed in this study. The Web of Science Core Collection database and Derwent Innovation Index database recorded 30023 SCI papers and 50326 patents, respectively were analyzed via information visualization technology. The results showed that China ranked the first in both papers and patents, while the United States and Japan had advantages in papers and patents, respectively. It was concluded through literature metrology analysis that microbial population characteristics, biodegradation mechanism, toxicity analysis, nitrogen and phosphorus removal and biological treatment of micro-polluted wastewater were the research hotspots of SCI papers. Activated sludge process and anaerobic-aerobic combined process were the two mainstream technologies on the basis of patent technology classification analysis. Technology evolution path of biological water treatment was also elucidated in three stages based on the citation network analysis. Furthermore, the future directions including research on the law of interaction and regulation of biological phases and pollutants and the technology innovations towards the targeted biotransformation or selective biodegradation of pollutants and resource reuse of wastewater were prospected.     

土壤和地下水污染的监控自然衰减修复技术研究进展

我国土壤和地下水污染形势严峻,污染场地数量巨大、类型复杂,相应的管理和修复技术体系仍然滞后.监控自然衰减（MNA）作为一种基于污染风险管控的场地修复和长期监测方法,是土壤和地下水污染修复中较为经济和有效的方法之一,可以实现修复的成本效益最大化.近几年来MNA在美国污染场地修复中的应用比例约占30%左右,场地修复的平均成本为数十万美元.本文介绍了MNA方法的来源和发展,总结了MNA的国内外研究应用进展和相关的核心技术手段,与典型修复方法的成本进行了比较,以期为MNA相关的研究和应用提供参考借鉴.     

基于文献计量的制药废水处理专利发展趋势

为了解制药废水处理技术的实际应用情况,以与Web of Science同源的DⅡ（Derwent Innovations Index,德温特）专利数据库为数据源,对1985—2017年的制药废水处理专利进行数据分析与挖掘.采用Excel和EndNote相结合的方法,系统分析了国内外制药废水处理的研究现状,阐明了制药废水处理的主流技术及专利领先的国家和组织,讨论了该领域的研究热点及前沿方向.结果表明:制药废水处理专利数量持续增长,特别是自1998年以来增速显著;制药废水处理专利以过滤技术、非生物滤池的好氧技术、混凝技术为主,它们是制药废水处理工艺中常用和必须的单元;我国在制药废水处理领域发表的专利数量居世界第1位,并且对主流技术研究的关注度和需求很高,但专利授权数量相对较少,研究深度有待提高.研究显示,面对我国类型复杂的制药废水,建议加强技术创新,以解决我国制药废水处理的技术难题,使我国制药废水处理技术向着实用化的方向发展.      

An environmental assessment method for cleaner production technologies

An environmental assessment method for cleaner production technologies enabling quantitative analysis of environmental impact is presented.The proposed method is based on material and energy flows and uses a set of profile indices, including raw material, energy, waste, product and packaging profiles that describe all material and energy flows related to the technology under investigation. The indices are used as a basis for determining an integrated index for overall environmental assessment of cleaner production technologies.The presented method can be employed to evaluate environmental nuisance of implemented, modernised and modified technological processes and products as well to perform comparative analyses of alternative technologies.     

A comparison of hydrocarbons emission from engine running 85￣＃gasoline and M－100 methanol fuel

Ａｃｏｍｐａｒｉｓｏｎｏｆｈｙｄｒｏｃａｒｂｏｎｓｅｍｉｓｓｉｏｎｆｒｏｍｅｎｇｉｎｅｒｕｎｎｉｎｇ８５￣＃ｇａｓｏｌｉｎｅａｎｄＭ－１００ｍｅｔｈａｎｏｌｆｕｅｌＹａｏＨｅｎｇ，ＣｈｅｎＺｏｎｇｌｉａｎｇ（ＣｈｉｎｅｓｅＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈＡｃａｄｅｍ...     

欧盟甲烷减排战略对我国碳中和的启示

欧盟于2020年10月出台了《欧盟甲烷减排战略》,以支撑其中长期温室气体减排目标。该战略共提出了五个领域的24个行动方案。欧盟将油气行业作为重点,设置了两个强制性的政策来完善能源部门的温室气体监测、报告和核查制度,并禁止天然气放空和燃烧。农业领域以加强全生命周期甲烷排放核算、减排技术等方面研究,编制最佳减排实践和技术清单为主要措施。在废弃物管理领域,欧盟将主要修订废弃物管理方面的立法和废水处理标准并加强监管。全球层面,欧盟提出希望联合包括中国在内的主要油气进口国家,推动建立全球性的监测、报告和核查标准,分享其甲烷超级排放源探测的卫星数据等措施。我国提出2060碳中和愿景后,下一阶段温室气体减排将会从能源相关二氧化碳减排为主扩展到全部温室气体减排。建议我国和欧盟在甲烷减排方面开展广泛合作,借鉴欧盟的经验,尽快制定我国甲烷减排近期、中期、远期目标和行动计划,推广甲烷减排技术,加强科学研究和技术研发,探索在国家碳市场交易体系中纳入甲烷等非二氧化碳气体的时机和方案,鼓励大型能源企业加入国际甲烷减排倡议以提高能力,逐步完善我国甲烷减排相关政策和制度环境,打造我国在低碳领域的经济和技术竞争力。     

Tradable CO2 permits for cars and trucks

The accelerated diffusion of cleaner vehicles to reduce CO₂ emissions in transport can be explicitly integrated in emission trading designs by making use of cross-sectoral energy efficiency investment opportunities that are found in data on CO₂ emissions during the production and the use of cars and trucks. We therefore elaborate the introduction of tradable certificates that are allocated or grandfathered to manufacturers that provide vehicles (and other durable goods) that enable their customers to reduce their own CO₂ emissions. This certificate is an allowance for each tonne CO₂ avoided. Manufacturers can then sell these certificates on the emission market and use the revenues to lower the price of their cleanest vehicles. This mechanism should partially overcome the price difference with less efficient cars. In a simulation, we found that the introduction of the certificate in tradable permit systems can lead to very significant reductions of CO₂ emissions. The simulations indicate that CO₂ emissions resulting from the car fleet can be reduced by 25–38% over a period of 15 years (starting in 1999). For the truck fleet, the reduction potential is more limited but still very interesting.     

Can a prolonged use of a passenger car reduce environmental burdens? Life Cycle analysis of Swiss passenger cars

As a consequence of the introduction of limits on exhaust gas emissions and a target agreement between the Swiss association of car importers (auto-schweiz) and the Swiss government calling for a reduction in the specific fuel consumption, a considerable reduction of exhaust emissions of newly registered Swiss passenger cars occurred in the last 10 years. Also, for the near future an ongoing reduction of exhaust emissions of newly registered vehicles is expected. However, applying the concept of life cycle thinking, exhaust emission reductions may be outbalanced with an increase in specific car manufacturing expenditures and/or a longer use of the car. Thus, from the point of view of an individual car owner, a prolonged car use may be the environmentally preferable option. In order to investigate this question, a comprehensive analysis of the environmental performance of newly registered diesel and petrol passenger cars in the time period from 2000 to 2010 has been performed. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) has been employed focusing on three transport components: ‘vehicle travel’ (exhaust and abrasion emissions), ‘fuel chain’ (supply of fuels) and ‘car infrastructure’ (manufacturing, maintenance and disposal of cars). The presented model aims to gain insight into the issue of longevity and prolonged car use for the Swiss case, rather than giving ultimate recommendations. The analysis focuses on classical road pollutants (NO_x and PM2.5) as well as on fuel consumption reduction and CO₂. Moreover, impact assessment has been applied, employing a common approach: Eco-Indicator (EI) 99. The ranking of different car replacement options revealed prolonged car use as the environmentally better option. As a consequence of the continuous use of the car representing 2000 average technology, the components ‘vehicle travel’ and ‘fuel chain’ show a 10% and 9% higher performance, respectively. This effect is compensated by savings in ‘car infrastructure’ (26%). Uncertainty analysis has been performed by additional model runs with different parameter settings. Despite the fact that a considerably prolonged car use scores best for all additional model runs, the resulting differences between options further decrease. This holds particularly true, if a higher yearly average fuel reduction rate of 3% is assumed. Furthermore, applying an avoided burden concept for infrastructure modeling (Value Corrected Substitution (VCS)) shows the same effect. In both cases the resulting scores differ merely marginally between the considered options and would not allow for discrimination.As a consequence of these outcomes, it is not possible to give any general recommendation to Swiss car owners to extend the use of their cars, in the short term.     

Reducing energy consumption in road transport through hybrid vehicles: investigation of rebound effects,and possible effects of tax rebates

Hybrid powertrains are considered to be a promising method to raise the overall fuel efficiency of passenger cars. They are predicted to enter the automobile markets in increasing numbers in the near future. This paper investigates 2 aspects relevant to the promotion of hybrid vehicles as part of an energy reduction strategy. First, are hybrid cars accompanied by rebound effects, which counteract their increased fuel efficiency? Second, do tax rebates indeed lead to higher sales numbers? We present results from a survey conducted with all 367 buyers of hybrid second-generation Toyota Prius in Switzerland in the first 9 months after market entry (response rate, 82.6%). As control group, questionnaires were also sent to 250 Toyota Corolla (61% returned) and 250 Toyota Avensis (52%) buyers. Among other items, the surveys asked for the car being replaced, if any. Main results are that the increase in car size for hybrid car buyers was lower than both, the market trend and the control group. Increase in car size was lower for hybrid car buyers than for both control group and market trend. 6% of hybrid car purchases did not replace a previously owned vehicle (control group 3%, P = 0.05), the Swiss market average being 20%. Hence rebound effects could be identified neither for vehicle size nor for vehicle ownership. As an energy policy measure, hybrid vehicles are eligible for tax rebates in parts of Switzerland. We found evidence that these tax rebates indeed lead to significant higher sales. We present a rough cost estimate of such tax rebates as CO₂ abatement policy tool.     

板材成形新技术及其发展趋势(Ⅰ)

近些年来,面对全球化的竞争,越来越需要小批量、多样化、周期短的新的成形技术.薄板成形技术在成形工艺中占有很重要的地位,其多样化趋势已经变得越来越明显,出现了多种加工方法,它对将来的工业结构和产品的生产技术将是一场革命.文中介绍了变压边力技术、成对液压成形技术、粘介质成形技术、无模分层成形技术等几种柔性化程度高的板材成形技术及其发展趋势.     

Portfolio-Based Electricity Generation Planning: Policy Implications For Renewables And Energy Security

Renewable generating technologies offer an effective means for climate change mitigation. Policy makers, however, are wary because of the widespread perception that these technologies cost more than conventional alternatives so that increasing their deployment will raise overall electricity generating costs. Energy planning represents an investment-decision problem. Investors commonly evaluate such problems using portfolio theory to manage risk and maximize portfolio performance under a variety of unpredictable economic outcomes. Energy planners need to similarly abandon their reliance on traditional, “least-cost” stand-alone kWh generating cost measures and instead evaluate conventional and renewable energy sources on the basis of their portfolio cost – their cost contribution relative to their risk contribution to a mix of generating assets. Energy security generally focuses on the threat of abrupt supply disruptions. This paper suggests a more profound aspect: mitigating fossil price volatility. An extensive body of research indicates that fossil volatility significantly disrupts the economies of consuming nations, potentially exacting hundreds of billions of dollars from the US and EU economies alone. Energy security is reduced when countries hold inefficient portfolios that are needlessly exposed to fossil price risks. This paper describes essential portfolio-theory ideas and uses three case studies to illustrate how electricity-generating mixes can benefit from additional shares of wind, geothermal and other renewables. Compared to existing, fossil-dominated mixes, efficient portfolios reduce generating cost while including greater renewables shares in the mix thereby enhancing energy security. Though counter-intuitive, the idea that adding more costly renewables can actually reduce portfolio-generating cost is consistent with basic finance theory. An important implication is that in dynamic and uncertain environments, the relative value of generating technologies must be determined not by evaluating alternative resources, but by evaluating alternative resource portfolios.     

A comparison of hydrocarbons emission from engine running 85# gasoline and M-100 methanol fuel

Increasing global interest in methanoi fuel has led us to investigate the exhaust emissionsof its engine. Analysis of its inorganic and organic emissions. such as CO. NO_x and hydrocarbons(total HC) have been widely reported. This paper presents an analysis of more than 20 kinds ofhydrocarbons in the emissions obtained from a spark-ignition Shanghai car running 85^# gasoline anda comparison with emission from a Santana test car running M-100 methanol fuel. A set ofenrichment method has also been described. Test results show that at the current stage of methanolengine development the concentration of individual hydrocarbon including some poisonous substancesis lower than those of normal gasoline engine.     

Commercial landscape of noninvasive prenatal testing in the United States

Cell-free fetal DNA-based noninvasive prenatal testing (NIPT) could significantly change the paradigm of prenatal testing and screening. Intellectual property (IP) and commercialization promise to be important components of the emerging debate about clinical implementation of these technologies. We have assembled information about types of testing, prices, turnaround times, and reimbursement of recently launched commercial tests in the United States from the trade press, news articles, and scientific, legal, and business publications. We also describe the patenting and licensing landscape of technologies underlying these tests and ongoing patent litigation in the United States. Finally, we discuss how IP issues may affect clinical translation of NIPT and their potential implications for stakeholders. Fetal medicine professionals (clinicians and researchers), genetic counselors, insurers, regulators, test developers, and patients may be able to use this information to make informed decisions about clinical implementation of current and emerging noninvasive prenatal tests. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.