Mercury Concentrations in Lentic Fish Populations Related to Ecosystem and Watershed Characteristics

Predicting mercury (Hg) concentrations of fishes at large spatial scales is a fundamental environmental challenge with the potential to improve human health. In this study, mercury concentrations were examined for five species across 161 lakes and ecosystem, and watershed parameters were investigated as explanatory variables in statistical models. For all species, Hg concentrations were significantly, positively related to wetland coverage. For three species (largemouth bass, pike, and walleye), Hg concentrations were significantly, negatively related to lake trophic state index (TSI), suggestive of growth biodilution. There were no significant relationships between ecosystem size and mercury concentrations. However, Hg concentrations were strongly, positively related to ecosystem size across species. Scores of small or remote lakes that have never been tested could be prioritized for testing using models akin to those presented in this article. Such an approach could also be useful for exploring how Hg concentrations of fishes might respond to natural or anthropogenic changes to ecosystems over time.     

High overlap between traditional ecological knowledge and forest conservation found in the Bolivian Amazon

It has been suggested that traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) may play a key role in forest conservation. However, empirical studies assessing to what extent TEK is associated with forest conservation compared with other variables are rare. Furthermore, to our knowledge, the spatial overlap of TEK and forest conservation has not been evaluated at fine scales. In this paper, we address both issues through a case study with Tsimane’ Amerindians in the Bolivian Amazon. We sampled 624 households across 59 villages to estimate TEK and used remote sensing data to assess forest conservation. We ran statistical and spatial analyses to evaluate whether TEK was associated and spatially overlapped with forest conservation at the village level. We find that Tsimane’ TEK is significantly and positively associated with forest conservation although acculturation variables bear stronger and negative associations with forest conservation. We also find a very significant spatial overlap between levels of Tsimane’ TEK and forest conservation. We discuss the potential reasons underpinning our results, which provide insights that may be useful for informing policies in the realms of development, conservation, and climate. We posit that the protection of indigenous cultural systems is vital and urgent to create more effective policies in such realms.     

Application of Airborne Lidar in Particulate Air Quality Problem Delineation,Monitoring Network Design and Control Strategy Development

Airborne lidar (light detection and ranging) data were collected during two field programs in 1989 in the border metropolitan area comprising El Paso (U.S.) and Ciudad Juarez (Mexico). These data were utilized to provide estimates of suspended particulate distributions in the presence of historical data with limited spatial and temporal density in the U.S. and almost no historical data in Mexico. The resulting information was used to help ascertain the magnitude and spatial extent of the particulate air quality problem and to help determine the number and disposition of recommended permanent particulate monitors in the area. The results support the hypothesis that, given a few representative measurements for calibration, airborne lidar might be used in specific situations to develop detailed concentration patterns and to provide useful estimates of pollutant flux, when combined with appropriate measurements of wind velocity profiles. Such information, in turn, should be useful for the development of control strategies for potential alleviation of particulate air quality problems.     

Evaluating the effectiveness of air quality regulations: A review of accountability studies and frameworks

Assessments of past environmental policies—termed accountability studies—contribute important information to the decision-making process used to review the efficacy of past policies, and subsequently aid in the development of effective new policies. These studies have used a variety of methods that have achieved varying levels of success at linking improvements in air quality and/or health to regulations. The Health Effects Institute defines the air pollution accountability framework as a chain of events that includes the regulation of interest, air quality, exposure/dose, and health outcomes, and suggests that accountability research should address impacts for each of these linkages. Early accountability studies investigated short-term, local regulatory actions (for example, coal use banned city-wide on a specific date or traffic pattern changes made for Olympic Games). Recent studies assessed regulations implemented over longer time and larger spatial scales. Studies on broader scales require accountability research methods that account for effects of confounding factors that increase over time and space. Improved estimates of appropriate baseline levels (sometimes termed “counterfactual”—the expected state in a scenario without an intervention) that account for confounders and uncertainties at each link in the accountability chain will help estimate causality with greater certainty. In the direct accountability framework, researchers link outcomes with regulations using statistical methods that bypass the link-by-link approach of classical accountability. Direct accountability results and methods complement the classical approach. New studies should take advantage of advanced planning for accountability studies, new data sources (such as satellite measurements), and new statistical methods. Evaluation of new methods and data sources is necessary to improve investigations of long-term regulations, and associated uncertainty should be accounted for at each link to provide a confidence estimate of air quality regulation effectiveness. The final step in any accountability is the comparison of results with the proposed benefits of an air quality policy.

Implications: The field of air pollution accountability continues to grow in importance to a number of stakeholders. Two frameworks, the classical accountability chain and direct accountability, have been used to estimate impacts of regulatory actions, and both require careful attention to confounders and uncertainties. Researchers should continue to develop and evaluate both methods as they investigate current and future air pollution regulations.     

Recommendations on statistics and benchmarks to assess photochemical model performance

Photochemical grid models are addressing an increasing variety of air quality related issues, yet procedures and metrics used to evaluate their performance remain inconsistent. This impacts the ability to place results in quantitative context relative to other models and applications, and to inform the user and affected community of model uncertainties and weaknesses. More consistent evaluations can serve to drive improvements in the modeling process as major weaknesses are identified and addressed. The large number of North American photochemical modeling studies published in the peer-reviewed literature over the past decade affords a rich data set from which to update previously established quantitative performance “benchmarks” for ozone and particulate matter (PM) concentrations. Here we exploit this information to develop new ozone and PM benchmarks (goals and criteria) for three well-established statistical metrics over spatial scales ranging from urban to regional and over temporal scales ranging from episodic to seasonal. We also recommend additional evaluation procedures, statistical metrics, and graphical methods for good practice. While we primarily address modeling and regulatory settings in the United States, these recommendations are relevant to any such applications of state-of-the-science photochemical models. Our primary objective is to promote quantitatively consistent evaluations across different applications, scales, models, model inputs, and configurations. The purpose of benchmarks is to understand how good or poor the results are relative to historical model applications of similar nature and to guide model performance improvements prior to using results for policy assessments. To that end, it also remains critical to evaluate all aspects of the model via diagnostic and dynamic methods. A second objective is to establish a means to assess model performance changes in the future. Statistical metrics and benchmarks need to be revisited periodically as model performance and the characteristics of air quality change in the future.

Implications: We address inconsistent procedures and metrics used to evaluate photochemical model performance, recommend a specific set of statistical metrics, and develop updated quantitative performance benchmarks for those metrics. We promote quantitatively consistent evaluations across different applications, scales, models, inputs, and configurations, thereby (1) improving the user’s ability to quantitatively place results in context and guide model improvements, and (2) better informing users, regulators, and stakeholders of model uncertainties and weaknesses prior to using results for policy assessments. While we primarily address U.S. modeling and regulatory settings, these recommendations are relevant to any such applications of state-of-the-science photochemical models.     

Urbanisation and human health in China: spatial features and a systemic perspective

Background, aims and scope

Current studies have paid little attention to the dynamism in urban spatial expansion and its possible environmental and health effects or to the health effects of rapid urban environmental change at different points along the urbanisation gradient. This study adopts a public health ecology approach to systematically understand the relationship between urbanisation, urban environmental change and human health in China.

Method

Remote sensing image analysis, based on night light data at five different time periods in recent decades, was used to determine changes to the overall urban area. Through a review of the evidence on the relationships between environmental health, urbanisation and health, we advance a pathway framework for explaining urban human health ecology. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient was used to measure the correlation between disease prevalence and urbanisation level, adding a further dimension to a systemic understanding of urban health.

Results and conclusions

Urban areas have been increasing spatially, but unevenly, in recent decades, with medium and small cities also expanding rapidly in the past decade. Urbanisation and urban expansion result in changes to land use/coverage change, the urban environment and the residents?? lifestyle, which result in human health problems. Regions with the highest urbanisation level were more inclined to have a high prevalence of chronic disease in recent decades. An ecological public health approach provides insights into the multiple types of data which need to be routinely collected if human disease is not to become a barrier to social and economic development.     

Export of nitrogen from catchments: a worldwide analysis

This study reviews nitrogen export rates from 946 rivers of the world to determine the influence of quantitative (runoff, rainfall, inhabitant density, catchment area, percentage of land use cover, airborne deposition, fertilizer input) and qualitative (dominant type of forest, occurrence of stagnant waterbodies, dominant land use, occurrence of point sources, runoff type) environmental factors on nitrogen fluxes. All fractions (total, nitrate, ammonia, dissolved organic and particulate organic) of nitrogen export showed a left-skewed distribution, which suggests a relatively pristine condition for most systems. Total nitrogen export showed the highest variability whereas total organic nitrogen export comprised the dominant fraction of export. Nitrogen export rates were only weakly explained by our qualitative and quantitative environmental variables. Our study suggests that the consideration of spatial and temporal scales is important for predicting nitrogen export rates using simple and easy-to-get environmental variables. Regionally based modelling approaches prove more useful than global-scale analyses.     

Contributions of Pesticide use to Urban Background Concentrations of Arsenic in Denver,Colorado, U.S.A.

Soil investigations near a former smelter have revealed that historic use of arsenical pesticides has contributed significantly to anthropogenic background concentrations of arsenic on certain residential properties in Denver, Colorado, U.S.A. Remedial investigation data, based on samples collected in relatively undisturbed locations, had previously indicated that the "upper limit" of background arsenic concentrations was 28 mg/kg in the site vicinity. This value compares reasonably well with more regional data, which indicate increasing arsenic concentrations moving from rural to urban land use. Soil sampling during cleanup, however, revealed the presence of arsenic concentrations of a few hundred to more than 1000 mg/kg on a large number of residential lawns due to historic applications of a crabgrass killer, which was missed by the earlier investigation samples because of the sampling bias toward undisturbed land. Data from over 20,000 soil samples now show that several different populations comprise urban background levels of arsenic and that these populations may be stratified by land use and have spatial patterns that should be considered during any background study. A variety of forensic techniques, including spatial analysis, arsenic speciation, and calculation of metals ratios were necessary to separate the smelter impacts from pesticide impacts.     

Sorption of ionic liquids onto soils: experimental and chemometric studies

Chemometric analyses are a great tool to support typical experimental studies of the interactions of xenobiotics with natural environment. Such interpretations are able to determine statistically significant correlations and finally lead to identification of the major sorption factors. However, to effectively use chemometrics a bigger data set is required. Even though the ionic liquids are intensively studied, their complete fate or prediction of their behavior in the natural environment is still unclear. Therefore, to evaluate and distinguish the patterns of interactions of ILs in soil environment by chemometrics, sorption of nine ionic liquids (imidazolium and pyridinium chlorides) on 11 types of various soils was tested. Experimental studies indicated that compounds with longer alkyl side chains were sorbed far more strongly than weakly lipophilic ones. Moreover, salts with short and/or hydroxylated derivatives were more mobile in soils/sediments and thus, might cause a danger of contamination of surface or ground waters. Cluster analysis revealed that ionic liquids form two major clusters according to interaction with soil surface - one grouping compounds with short and hydroxylated alkyl side chains and the second with the rest of compounds. Pairwise scatterplots for correlations between soil variables and sorption coefficients indicated that the main soil parameter responsible for the sorption was cation exchange capacity. Correlation of sorption coefficients, K(d), with pH indicated the existence of lower sorption potency in lower pH values.     

The environmental impact of changing consumption patterns: a survey

How does environmental impact change when national income increases? So far, this question has been mainly discussed from the point of view of production, but in recent years several studies have dealt with the question of decoupling from the point of view of consumption. The optimistic subscribers to decoupling argue that, with increasing income, the composition of consumption changes in the direction of more environment-friendly goods and services. This paper discusses this hypothesis critically on the basis of several studies dealing with historical experience. First, it is argued that an overall assessment of the environmental impact is most appropriately based on an input approach. Then data on input intensities for different categories of consumption goods are combined with data on changes in consumption patterns, and it is concluded that the historical changes in the composition of consumption seem to have done little to counterbalance the environmental effects of growth.     

Designing monitoring networks to represent outdoor human exposure

Measurements of outdoor human exposure to suspended particulate matter (PM) are always constrained by available resources. An effective network design requires tradeoffs between variables measured, the number of sampling locations, sample duration, and sampling frequency. Sampling sites are needed to represent neighborhood and urban spatial scales with minimal influences from nearby sources. Although most PM measurements for determining compliance with standards are taken over 24-h periods every third to sixth day, outdoor human exposure assessment requires measurements taken continuously throughout the day, preferably over durations of 1 h or less. More detailed particle size and chemistry data are also desirable, as smaller size fractions and specific chemicals may be better indicators of adverse health effects than total mass samples.     

Can coral reefs be monitored from space?

The dramatic bleaching events on the coral reefs recently have enhanced the need for environmental monitoring. Remote sensing is an important constituent for monitoring of reefs, and an invaluable complement to field observations. This paper discusses the possibilities and limitations of present high resolution satellites for mapping and monitoring coral reefs. The sensors with the best spatial and radiometric resolution available today, e.g. IKONOS, can be useful for mapping and monitoring of reefs, but they are too costly for global surveys. However, our coral bleaching studies indicate that massive bleaching could be detected even from satellites with lower resolution, like Landsat, SPOT, and IRS. They could also be useful for coarser, from a spatial and thematic point of view, global mapping and updating purposes. A more detailed monitoring requires both better spatial resolution and spectral resolution than today's sensors. In the future, it is necessary to construct a more reef specific sensor with a few specially selected narrow bands and a good spatial, radiometric and temporal resolution.     

Variable-density groundwater flow and solute transport in heterogeneous porous media: approaches, resolutions and future challenges

In certain hydrogeological situations, fluid density variations occur because of changes in the solute or colloidal concentration, temperature, and pressure of the groundwater. These include seawater intrusion, high-level radioactive waste disposal, groundwater contamination, and geothermal energy production. When the density of the invading fluid is greater than that of the ambient one, density-driven free convection can lead to transport of heat and solutes over larger spatial scales and significantly shorter time scales than compared with diffusion alone. Beginning with the work of Lord Rayleigh in 1916, thermal and solute instabilities in homogeneous media have been studied in detail for almost a century. Recently, these theoretical and experimental studies have been applied in the study of groundwater phenomena, where the assumptions of homogeneity and isotropy rarely, if ever, apply. The critical role that heterogeneity plays in the onset as well as the growth and/or decay of convective motion is discussed by way of a review of pertinent literature and numerical simulations performed using a variable-density flow and solute transport numerical code. Different styles of heterogeneity are considered and range from continuously "trending" heterogeneity (sinusoidal and stochastic permeability distributions) to discretely fractured geologic media. Results indicate that both the onset of instabilities and their subsequent growth and decay are intimately related to the structure and variance of the permeability field. While disordered heterogeneity tends to dissipate convection through dispersive mixing, an ordered heterogeneity (e.g., sets of vertical fractures) allows instabilities to propagate at modest combinations of fracture aperture and separation distances. Despite a clearer understanding of the processes that control the onset and propagation of instabilities, resultant plume patterns and their migration rates and pathways do not appear amenable to prediction at present. The classical Rayleigh number used to predict the occurrence of instabilities fails, in most cases, when heterogeneous conditions prevail. The incorporation of key characteristics of the heterogeneous permeability field into relevant stability criteria and numerical models remains a challenge for future research.     

Characterizing sources of nitrate leaching from an irrigated dairy farm in Merced County, California

Dairy farms comprise a complex landscape of groundwater pollution sources. The objective of our work is to develop a method to quantify nitrate leaching to shallow groundwater from different management units at dairy farms. Total nitrate loads are determined by the sequential calibration of a sub-regional scale and a farm-scale three-dimensional groundwater flow and transport model using observations at different spatial scales. These observations include local measurements of groundwater heads and nitrate concentrations in an extensive monitoring well network, providing data at a scale of a few meters and measurements of discharge rates and nitrate concentrations in a tile-drain network, providing data integrated across multiple farms. The various measurement scales are different from the spatial scales of the calibration parameters, which are the recharge and nitrogen leaching rates from individual management units. The calibration procedure offers a conceptual framework for using field measurements at different spatial scales to estimate recharge N concentrations at the management unit scale. It provides a map of spatially varying dairy farming impact on groundwater nitrogen. The method is applied to a dairy farm located in a relatively vulnerable hydrogeologic region in California. Potential sources within the dairy farm are divided into three categories, representing different manure management units: animal exercise yards and feeding areas (corrals), liquid manure holding ponds, and manure irrigated forage fields. Estimated average nitrogen leaching is 872 kg/ha/year, 807 kg/ha/year and 486 kg/ha/year for corrals, ponds and fields respectively. Results are applied to evaluate the accuracy of nitrogen mass balances often used by regulatory agencies to assess groundwater impacts. Calibrated leaching rates compare favorably to field and farm scale nitrogen mass balances. These data and interpretations provide a basis for developing improved management strategies.     

Contaminant mass discharge estimation in groundwater based on multi-level point measurements: a numerical evaluation of expected errors

Different methods for the field-scale estimation of contaminant mass discharge in groundwater at control planes based on multi-level well data are numerically analysed for the expected estimation error. We consider "direct" methods based on time-integrated measuring of mass flux, as well as "indirect" methods, where estimates are derived from concentration measurements. The appropriateness of the methods is evaluated by means of modelled data provided by simulation of mass transport in a three-dimensional model domain. Uncertain heterogeneous aquifer conditions are addressed by means of Monte-Carlo simulations with aquifer conductivity as a random space function. We investigate extensively the role of the interplay between the spatial resolution of the sampling grid and aquifer heterogeneity with respect to the accuracy of the mass discharge estimation. It is shown that estimation errors can be reduced only if spatial sampling intervals are in due proportion to spatial correlation length scales. The ranking of the methods with regard to estimation error is shown to be heavily dependent on both the given sampling resolution and prevailing aquifer heterogeneity. Regarding the "indirect" estimation methods, we demonstrate the great importance of a consistent averaging of the parameters used for the discharge estimation.     

Coupled human and natural systems

Humans have continuously interacted with natural systems, resulting in the formation and development of coupled human and natural systems (CHANS). Recent studies reveal the complexity of organizational, spatial, and temporal couplings of CHANS. These couplings have evolved from direct to more indirect interactions, from adjacent to more distant linkages, from local to global scales, and from simple to complex patterns and processes. Untangling complexities, such as reciprocal effects and emergent properties, can lead to novel scientific discoveries and is essential to developing effective policies for ecological and socioeconomic sustainability. Opportunities for truly integrating various disciplines are emerging to address fundamental questions about CHANS and meet society's unprecedented challenges.     

Developing climatic scenarios for pesticide fate modelling in Europe

A climatic classification for Europe suitable for pesticide fate modelling was constructed using a 3-stage process involving the identification of key climatic variables, the extraction of the dominant modes of spatial variability in those variables and the use of k-means clustering to identify regions with similar climates. The procedure identified 16 coherent zones that reflect the variability of climate across Europe whilst maintaining a manageable number of zones for subsequent modelling studies. An analysis of basic climatic parameters for each zone demonstrates the success of the scheme in identifying distinct climatic regions. Objective criteria were used to identify one representative 26-year daily meteorological series from a European dataset for each zone. The representativeness of each series was then verified against the zonal classifications. These new FOOTPRINT climate zones provide a state-of-the-art objective classification of European climate complete with representative daily data that are suitable for use in pesticide fate modelling.     

Toward verifying fossil fuel CO2 emissions with the CMAQ model: Motivation,model description and initial simulation

Motivated by the question of whether and how a state-of-the-art regional chemical transport model (CTM) can facilitate characterization of CO₂ spatiotemporal variability and verify CO₂ fossil-fuel emissions, we for the first time applied the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to simulate CO₂. This paper presents methods, input data, and initial results for CO₂ simulation using CMAQ over the contiguous United States in October 2007. Modeling experiments have been performed to understand the roles of fossil-fuel emissions, biosphere–atmosphere exchange, and meteorology in regulating the spatial distribution of CO₂ near the surface over the contiguous United States. Three sets of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) fluxes were used as input to assess the impact of uncertainty of NEE on CO₂ concentrations simulated by CMAQ. Observational data from six tall tower sites across the country were used to evaluate model performance. In particular, at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory (BAO), a tall tower site that receives urban emissions from Denver, CO, the CMAQ model using hourly varying, high-resolution CO₂ fossil-fuel emissions from the Vulcan inventory and CarbonTracker optimized NEE reproduced the observed diurnal profile of CO₂ reasonably well but with a low bias in the early morning. The spatial distribution of CO₂ was found to correlate with NOx, SO₂, and CO, because of their similar fossil-fuel emission sources and common transport processes. These initial results from CMAQ demonstrate the potential of using a regional CTM to help interpret CO₂ observations and understand CO₂ variability in space and time. The ability to simulate a full suite of air pollutants in CMAQ will also facilitate investigations of their use as tracers for CO₂ source attribution. This work serves as a proof of concept and the foundation for more comprehensive examinations of CO₂ spatiotemporal variability and various uncertainties in the future.

Implications: Atmospheric CO₂ has long been modeled and studied on continental to global scales to understand the global carbon cycle. This work demonstrates the potential of modeling and studying CO₂ variability at fine spatiotemporal scales with CMAQ, which has been applied extensively, to study traditionally regulated air pollutants. The abundant observational records of these air pollutants and successful experience in studying and reducing their emissions may be useful for verifying CO₂ emissions. Although there remains much more to further investigate, this work opens up a discussion on whether and how to study CO₂ as an air pollutant.     

The effects of lake acidification on aquatic macrophytes--a review

Acidification of lakes results in a number of chemical, physical and biological changes. This review initially outlines the major floristic changes that occur in acidifying and limed lakes. The different types of evidence (historical comparisons, inter-lake comparisons and palaeoecological studies) are considered. These studies emphasise the replacement of calcicole species and others such as the isoetids with Juncus bulbosus and Sphagnun spp. in acidifying lakes. The review then discusses the way in which the various alterations in lake conditions affect the physiology of the macrophytes, particularly with changes in the availability of carbon, a change from nitrate to ammonium as a nitrogen source and the effects of an alteration in the Lake light climate. The population biology, community ecology and ecosystem functioning of macrophytes are discussed, especially where competitive processes may seem more important in determining community change than physiological processes. Particular consideration is paid to the types of evidence of floristic change that are useful and the importance of undertaking experimental studies at the correct scale to determine which factors may be causally related to the floristic evidence.     

A fuzzy logic expert system for evaluating policy progress towards sustainability goals

Evaluating progress towards environmental sustainability goals can be difficult due to a lack of measurable benchmarks and insufficient or uncertain data. Marine settings are particularly challenging, as stakeholders and objectives tend to be less well defined and ecosystem components have high natural variability and are difficult to observe directly. Fuzzy logic expert systems are useful analytical frameworks to evaluate such systems, and we develop such a model here to formally evaluate progress towards sustainability targets based on diverse sets of indicators. Evaluation criteria include recent (since policy enactment) and historical (from earliest known state) change, type of indicators (state, benefit, pressure, response), time span and spatial scope, and the suitability of an indicator in reflecting progress toward a specific objective. A key aspect of the framework is that all assumptions are transparent and modifiable to fit different social and ecological contexts. We test the method by evaluating progress towards four Aichi Biodiversity Targets in Canadian oceans, including quantitative progress scores, information gaps, and the sensitivity of results to model and data assumptions. For Canadian marine systems, national protection plans and biodiversity awareness show good progress, but species and ecosystem states overall do not show strong improvement. Well-defined goals are vital for successful policy implementation, as ambiguity allows for conflicting potential indicators, which in natural systems increases uncertainty in progress evaluations. Importantly, our framework can be easily adapted to assess progress towards policy goals with different themes, globally or in specific regions.