Climate change and the geography of weed damage: Analysis of U.S. maize systems suggests the potential for significant range transformations

By the end of the century, climate change projections under a “business-as-usual” emissions scenario suggest a globally averaged warming of 2.4–6.4 °C. If these forecasts are realized, cropping systems are likely to experience significant geographic range transformations among damaging endemic weed species and new vulnerabilities to exotic weed invasions. To anticipate these changes and to devise management strategies for proactively addressing them, it is necessary to characterize the environmental conditions that make specific weed species abundant, competitive, and therefore damaging the production of particular crops (i.e. defining the damage niche). In this study, U.S. maize is used as a model system to explore the implications of climate change on the distribution of damaging agricultural weeds. To accomplish this, we couple ensemble climate change projections of annual temperature and precipitation with survey data of troublesome weed species in maize. At the state scale, space-for-time substitution techniques are used to suggest the potential magnitude of change among damaging weed communities. To explore how the geography of damage for specific species may evolve over the next century, bioclimatic range rules were derived for two weed species that are pervasive in the Northern (Abutilon theophrasti Medicus, ABUTH) and Southern (Sorghum halepense (L.) Pers., SORHA) U.S. Results from both analyses suggest that the composition of damaging weed communities may be fundamentally altered by climate change. In some states, potential changes in the coming decades are commensurate to those possible by the end of the century. Regions such as the Northeastern U.S. may prove particularly vulnerable with emerging climate conditions favoring few weed species of present-day significance. In contrast, regions like the mid-South are likely to experience fewer shifts even with a similar magnitude in climate change. By the end of the century in the U.S. Corn Belt, cold-tolerant species like A. theophrasti may be of minor importance whereas S. halepense, a predominantly Southern U.S. weed species at present, may become common and damaging to maize production with its damage niche advancing 200–600 km north of its present-day distribution.     

Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions, fossil fuel demand and solar energy conversion efficiency in European bioethanol production for automotive purposes

Crop derived biofuels such as (bio)ethanol are increasingly applied for automotive purposes. They have, however, a relatively low efficiency in converting solar energy into automotive power. The outcome of life cycle studies concerning ethanol as to fossil fuel inputs and greenhouse gas emissions associated with such inputs depend strongly on the assumptions made regarding e.g. allocation, inclusion of upstream processes and estimates of environmentally relevant in- and outputs. Peer reviewed studies suggest that CO₂ emissions linked to life cycle fossil fuel input are typically about 2.1–3.0 kg CO₂ kg⁻¹ starch-derived ethanol. When biofuel production involves agricultural practices that are common in Europe there are net losses of carbon from soil and emissions of the greenhouse gas N₂O. Dependent on choices regarding allocation, they may, for wheat (starch) be in the order of 0.6–2.5 kg CO₂ equivalent kg⁻¹ of ethanol. This makes ethanol derived from starch, or sugar crops, in Europe still less attractive for mitigating climate change. In case of wheat, changes in agricultural practice may reduce or reverse carbon loss from soils. When biofuel production from crops leads to expansion of cropland while reducing forested areas or grassland, added impetus will be given to climate change.     

Impacts of earthworms on soil nutrients and plant growth in soybean and maize agroecosystems

The objective of this experiment was to determine the effects of earthworms on soil N pools and plant growth in soybean and maize agroecosystems. The species and number of individuals in earthworm communities were manipulated in plot-scale field enclosures (2.4 m × 1.2 m) by first reducing earthworm populations within enclosures with carbaryl pesticide, and then adding earthworm treatments to the enclosures. Soybean was grown in the enclosures in the first year and stover maize in the second year.The success of earthworm manipulations in field enclosures was affected by climate conditions and available food resources. The endogeic earthworm species Aporrectodea caliginosa was dominant in all enclosures, while introduced anecic Lumbricus terrestris earthworms had poor survival. In the first season, when climate conditions were favourable for earthworm survival and growth, there was a significant (P < 0.05) linear increase in soil mineral-N and microbial biomass N concentrations in the 0–15 cm depth of enclosures with more earthworms. Similarly, soybean grain and grain-N yield was significantly (P < 0.05) greater in enclosures with the largest earthworm populations than the control which had no earthworms added. In the second season, when climate conditions were less favourable, there was no effect of earthworms on soil N pools or maize plants, probably due to poor survival of introduced earthworms.     

Regional news portrayals of global warming and climate change

In this study we utilize content analysis techniques to examine how the issue of global warming and climate change has been characterized during the period of 1992 through 2005 by the Houston Chronicle—the largest regional newspaper in the Texas coastal region. A total of 795 global warming and climate change news articles from the Houston Chronicle are collected, coded and analyzed. Data analyses are organized and presented with regard to issue salience, various issue attributes (issue image, scope, linkage, participant, proposed solution and responsible party), use of science, and scientific information sources cited in the news stories. We find that regional media attention to the global climate change issue generally increases over time and an overwhelming majority of the news articles view the issue as a harmful problem. However, given the scientific consensus that global warming will result in significant devastating climate change consequences to the coastal regions, there are still a fair number of news articles delivering mixed, undetermined or even non-harmful messages. We also find that climate change is often discussed as a national or international-global issue, and frequently linked to a number of other public issues rather than just being viewed as an environmental–ecological problem. Moreover, we find that emphasis on issue solutions is placed more on mitigation strategies than on adaptation behaviors, and that both governmental and non-governmental actions and responsibilities are suggested for dealing with climate change. In addition, our findings indicate that the regional newspaper in Texas obtains scientific information on climate change primarily from academic institutions. Implications of our findings and recommendations for future research are discussed in the concluding section.     

Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of Larix Spp. and Pinus Sylvestris and Their Climatypes in Siberia

Inter- and intraspecific effects of climate change were assessed for the dominant conifers of Siberia (60–140^∘E and 48–75^∘N): Larix spp. (L. sibirica, L. dahurica, and L. sukaczewii) and Pinus sylvestris . The approach employed a tri-variate (degree-days above 5 ^∘C, degree-days below 0 ^∘C, and a moisture index) estimate of the climatic envelope within which exists the actual ecological distribution of a species and their constituent climatypes (genotypes physiologically attuned to similar environments). Limits of the actual ecological distribution were approximated by reducing the climatic envelope according to effects of permafrost and interspecific competition. Climatypes were mapped within the climatic envelope according to the climatic interval that must separate populations for reasonable assurance of genetic differentiation. This interval was calculated from response functions that related 13-year growth and survival of a species to the difference in climate between the provenance of a climatype and the climate of numerous test sites distributed across Russia. Mapping species' distributions and their climatypes was done for the contemporary climate and for future climates predicted by the HadCM3GGa1 scenario of Hadley Centre. The results showed that if the forests of the future are to reflect the adaptedness of today, the distribution of species will shift and genotypes within species will be redistributed. Some contemporary climatypes are projected to disappear from Siberia while others common elsewhere would evolve. To mitigate these effects, climatypes should be transferred today to the expected future location of their climatic optima, a distance that is likely to approach 700–1200 km for these species.     

东北多年冻土区植被NDVI变化及其对气候变化和土地覆被变化的响应

利用1982~2006年的NOAA AVHRR-GIMMS和MODIS 2种数据集的归一化植被指数(NDVI)数据对东北多年冻土区植被NDVI年际动态和空间差异进行分析,并结合气象数据和土地利用/覆被数据分析了植被NDVI对气候变化和土地利用/覆被变化的响应.研究表明,东北多年冻土区植被NDVI值较高,且空间差异明显;森林为该区主要植被类型,NDVI值较高,主要分布于大小兴安岭和伊春地区;草地集中分布于西南部, NDVI值相对较低.东北多年冻土区过去25a间植被生长的变化趋势为:伴随着气温的显著升高和降水量减少,植被NDVI显著下降.较气温而言,降水量是影响植被NDVI的主要因子(r = 0.77, P < 0.01).在气候变化和人类活动的双重作用下,东北多年冻土区植被NDVI在1982~2006年间表现为4个阶段:1982~1990年,植被NDVI虽有小幅波动,但整体上呈持续增加的趋势;1990~1993年,植被NDVI呈迅速下降趋势; 1993~1997年,植被NDVI呈现回升态势,表现出缓慢上升的趋势;1998~2006年,植被NDVI呈现总体下降趋势.不同植被类型表现出不同的NDVI年际变化规律,尤以草地NDVI值波动最大.植被NDVI变化空间异质性显著.气候变化和多年冻土退化影响了东北多年冻土区植被NDVI动态.年均气温升高和年降水量降低影响了植被的生长.从像元尺度来看,研究区植被NDVI与气温和降水均具有较显著的相关性.研究区土地利用/覆被变化的分析结果表明,不同的土地利用类型间的转变对植被NDVI的大小和空间分布产生了重要影响.     

Climate-driven changes in air quality over Europe by the end of the 21st century,with special reference to Portugal

Climate change alone may deeply impact air quality levels in the atmosphere because the changes in the meteorological conditions will induce changes on the transport, dispersion and transformation of air pollutants. The aim of this work was to evaluate the impact of climate change on the air quality over Europe and Portugal, using a reference year (year 1990) and a IPCC SRES A2 year (year 2100). The Hadley Centre global atmospheric circulation model (HadAM3P) was used to provide results for these two climatic scenarios, which were then used as synoptic forcing for the MM5-CHIMERE air quality modelling system. In order to assess the contribution of future climate change on O₃ and PM concentrations, no changes in regional emissions were assumed and only climate change forcing was considered. The modelling results suggest that the O₃ monthly mean levels in the atmosphere may increase almost 50 μg m^?3 across Europe in July under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario. In Portugal, this increase may reach 20 μg m^?3. The changes of PM10 monthly average values over Europe will depend on the region. The increase in PM10 concentrations during specific months could be explained by the average reduction of the boundary layer height and wind speed.     

Stationary Spiraling Eddies and Self-Cleaning Processes in the White Sea in Presence of Climate Change and Their Relationship with Ecology of the Greenland Seal: Results of Airborne-Satellite-In Situ Study

Pollution of the marginal Arctic seas and rising of toxic contaminants are extremely dangerous for marine and coastal ecosystems and for marine mammals as representatives of a high level of fodder chains in the ocean. Ecology of ice-associated forms of marine mammals, population health and animal welfare are strongly depended from the different environmental processes and phenomena. Operational assessment of the level of this impact is very important for marine biology, marine fisheries and other. Many new problems create a global warming. In order to investigate ice covered Arctic Ocean and charting the number of seals were performed annual inspections onboard research aircraft PINRO Arktika. Multi-spectral airborne and satellite observations were fulfilled regularly from Barents and White Sea to the Bering and Okhotsk Sea. A contemporary status of different group of sea mammals was evaluated, where number and health of adults and pups were checked separately. In situ observations were provided with using helicopter and icebreaker for gathering a water samples, ice cores and specimens of meat and fatty matter (with following biochemical and toxicological analysis in laboratory). A prevailing part of life cycle of Greenland seals (Pagophillus groenladicus) is strongly depended from winter hydrology (water masses arrangement and water exchange, stable currents, meandering fronts, stationary spiraling eddies) and closely connected with type of ice (pack, fast ice) and other parameters of ice (age, origin, salinity, ice edge). First-year ice floes which has a specific properties and distinctive features are used by harp seals for pupping, lactation, molting, pairing and resting. Ringed seals, inversely, use for corresponding purposes only fast-ice. Different aspects of ecology, and migration features of harp seals were analyzed in frame of verification study. It was revealed a scale of influence of winter severity and wind regime (even a cases of ecological catastrophe of harp seal were fixed), but stationary eddies in the White Sea is most effective governing factor (novelty). The results of study of the following relationship of the problem eddies – self-cleaning processes – climate change – ecology of Greenland seal White Sea population will be presented: A) regularities of eddies formation and their spatial arrangement, temporal (seasonal and annual) modification; B) stationary eddy as zone of concentration of polluted waters and toxically hazard, self-cleaning processes and climate change; C) eddies displacement and parameters modification (type of eddy, intensity and sign of rotation) as result of climate change; D) relationship between eddies location and whelping rookeries arrangement, climate change and variety of the type of migration E) spiraling eddies and pollution dynamics, forecast of future modification of marine animal welfare. A further develop a strategy of multi-level ecomonitoring of the polluted Arctic should be discussed and recommendations for conservation and management of ice-associated forms of seals in presence of global warming will be done.     

Prospects for carbon-neutral housing: the influence of greater wood use on the carbon footprint of a single-family residence

This paper examines the energy and carbon balance of two residential house alternatives; a typical wood frame home using more conventional materials (brick cladding, vinyl windows, asphalt shingles, and fibreglass insulation) and a similar wood frame house that also maximizes wood use throughout (cedar shingles and siding, wood windows, and cellulose insulation) in place of the more typical materials used – a wood-intensive house. Carbon emission and fossil fuel consumption balances were established for the two homes based on the cumulative total of three subsystems: (1) forest harvesting and regeneration; (2) cradle-to-gate product manufacturing, construction, and replacement effects over a 100-year service life; and (3) end-of-life effects – landfilling with methane capture and combustion or recovery of biomass for energy production.The net carbon balance of the wood-intensive house showed a complete offset of the manufacturing emissions by the credit given to the system for forest re-growth. Including landfill methane emissions, the wood-intensive life cycle yielded 20 tons of CO₂e emissions compared to 72 tons for the typical house. The wood-intensive home's life cycle also consumed only 45% of the fossil fuels used in the typical house.Diverting wood materials from the landfill at the end of life improved the life cycle balances of both the typical and wood-intensive houses. The carbon balance of the wood-intensive house was 5.2 tons of CO₂e permanently removed from the atmosphere (a net carbon sink) as compared to 63.4 of total CO₂e emissions for the typical house. Substitution of wood fuel for natural gas and coal in electricity production led to a net energy balance of the wood-intensive house that was nearly neutral, 87.1 GJ energy use, 88% lower than the scenario in which the materials were landfilled.Allocating biomass generation and carbon sequestration in the forest on an economic basis as opposed to a mass basis significantly improves the life cycle balances of both houses. Employing an economic allocation method to the forest leads to 3–5 times greater carbon sequestration and fossil fuel substitution attributable to the house, which is doubled in forestry regimes that remove stumps and slash as fuel. Thus, wood use has the potential to create a significantly negative carbon footprint for a house up to the point of occupancy and even offset a portion of heating and cooling energy use and carbon emissions; the wood-intensive house is energy and carbon neutral for 34–68 years in Ottawa and has the potential to be a net carbon sink and energy producer in a more temperate climate like San Francisco.     

Climatic influences on the breeding biology of the agile frog (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Rana dalmatina</Emphasis>)

Severe population declines of amphibians have been shown to be attributed to climate change. Nevertheless, the various mechanisms through which climate can influence population dynamics of amphibians remain to be assessed, notably to disentangle the relative synergetic or antagonistic influences of temperature and precipitations on specific life history stages. We investigated the impact of rainfall and temperature on the egg-clutch abundance in a population of agile frog (Rana dalmatina) during 29 years (1987–2016) on 14 breeding sites located in Brenne Natural Park, France. Specifically, we examined the influence of environmental conditions occurring during five temporal windows of the year cycle corresponding to specific life history stages. Overall, our results suggest that the year-to-year fluctuations of egg-clutch abundances in Brenne Natural Park were partly dependent on local climatic conditions (rainfall and temperature). Climate seemed to influence breeding frogs during the autumn-winter period preceding reproduction. Spring and summer conditions did not influence reproduction. Additionally, we failed to detect effects of climatic conditions on newly metamorphosed individuals. Other factors such as density dependence and inter-specific interactions with introduced predators are likely to play a significant role in reproduction dynamics of the studied frog populations.     

Misdefining “climate change”: consequences for science and action

The restricted definition of “climate change” used by the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) has profoundly affected the science, politics, and policy processes associated with the international response to the climate issue. Specifically, the FCCC definition has contributed to the gridlock and ineffectiveness of the global response to the challenge of climate change. This paper argues that the consequences of misdefining “climate change” create a bias against adaptation policies and set the stage for the politicization of climate science. The paper discusses options for bringing science, policy and politics in line with a more appropriate definition of climate change such as the more comprehensive perspective used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.     

Issues in developing a capacity for integrated analysis of mitigation and adaptation

As policymakers and stakeholders increasingly consider relative merits and complementarities of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is important to improve analytical capacities to support this process. Because a single analytical approach is unlikely to fit all needs, this paper explores potentials for an integrated analytical framework that incorporates both top–down and bottom–up approaches.     

Reside0ntial solar water heating as a potential Clean Development Mechanism project: A South African case study

A community-based Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) project – asolar water heating project in a low-income community in South Africa –is analysed to illustrate the methodological and policy challenges that faceimplementation of the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change. We evaluate four baseline options, andthree potential CDM interventions. The emissions reductions range from –670 to +5 929 Mg CO₂ per year, with all option but oneshowing positive emission reductions. Using metered solar water heatingwith liquefied petroleum gas back-up as the CDM intervention, and electricstorage geysers as the baseline, the annual emissions reductions are 5686 Mg CO₂. The cost-effectiveness from the national perspective,which is the incremental life cycle costs divided by the lifetime emissionsreductions, is –$18 per Mg CO₂ From the perspective of theCDM investor, however, the cost-effectiveness is $5.2 per mgCO₂, assuming that the investor receives all of the carbon credits forproviding the incremental capital investment. From our analysis, weconclude that using the current technology (kerosene stoves) as a baselineis probably not appropriate because it does not reflect likely future trendsand also penalises the community for their poverty and current lack ofinfrastructure. We also highlight the importance of credit sharing, and howit affects the cost-effectiveness of the project from the CDM investor'sperspective. The lessons from this analysis are important for the currentinternational policy debate on how to preferentially treat small-scale CDMprojects.     

Analysis on reasons for the Yellow River''''s dry-up and its eco-environmental impacts

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Analysis on reasons for the Yellow River''s dry-up and its  eco-environmental impacts

The Yellow River, or Huanghe, is one of the most important river in China. It is the major water resources for north and northwest China. Since 1972, the Yellow River's dry-up has occurred frequently and become even more year by year. Except the huge loss to social life and economic development, the Yellow River's dry-up brings about great impacts to eco-environment. This paper analyzed the reasons and impacts from multi-aspect: effects of climate change, influence of human activities and impacts to delta's eco-environment, aquatic life resources, agricultural eco- environment, water pollution and flood prevention as well.     

Crop residue removal and fertilizer N: Effects on soil organic carbon in a long-term crop rotation experiment on a Udic Boroll

Biofuels can be produced by converting cellulose in crop residues to ethanol. This has recently been viewed as a potential supplement to non-renewable energy sources, especially in the Americas. A 50-yr field experiment was analyzed to determine the influence of (i) removing approximately 22% of the above-ground wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) residue each crop year, and (ii) N and P fertilization on soil carbon (C) in the top 15 cm depth of a fallow–wheat–wheat (F–W–W) rotation. The study was conducted from 1958 to 2007 on a clay soil, at Indian Head in sub-humid southeast Saskatchewan, Canada. Soil C concentrations and bulk densities were measured in the 0–7.5 and 7.5–15 cm depths in 1987, 1996 and 2007 and soil C changes were related to C inputs estimated from straw and root yields calculated from regressions relating these to grain yields. Two soil organic matter models [the Campbell model and the Introductory Carbon Balance Model (ICBM)] were also used to simulate and predict the effects of the treatments on soil C change over time, and to estimate likely soil C change if 50% or 95% of above-ground residues were harvested each crop year. Crop residue removal reduced cumulative C inputs from straw and roots over the 50-yr experiment by only 13%, and this did not significantly (P > 0.05) reduce soil C throughout the experiment duration. However, after 50 yr of applying N fertilizer at recommended rates, soil C increased significantly by about 3 Mg ha⁻¹ compared to the non-fertilized treatment. The simulated effect of removing 50% and 95% of the above-ground residues suggested that removing 50% of the straw would likely have a detectable effect on the soil C, while removing 95% of the straw certainly would. Measurements and model simulations suggest that adoption of no-tillage without proper fertilization will not increase soil C. Although it appears that a modest amount of residue may be safely removed from these Udic Borolls (Black Chernozems) without a measurable effect on soil C, this would only be feasible if accompanied by appropriate fertility management.     

Assessment of the nitrogen and carbon budget of two managed temperate grassland fields

Greenhouse gas budgets as well as the productivity of grassland systems are closely related to the carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles. Within the framework of the CarboEurope and NitroEurope projects we have measured C and N exchange on the field scale at the grassland site Oensingen previously converted from arable rotation. The site is located on the Swiss Central Plateau and consists of two parallel fields of equal size. One field was subjected to intensive management with average nitrogen input of 230 kg-N ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ and 4–5 cuts per year, and the other to an extensive management with no fertilisation and less frequent cutting. The total C budget of the fields was assessed by measuring the CO₂ exchange by eddy covariance and analysing the carbon import by manure application and export by harvest. The N budget of the managed grassland is more complex. Besides the management related import and export, it includes gaseous exchange in many different forms (NO, NO₂, HNO₃, N₂O, NH₃, N₂) needing different analytical techniques, as well as input by rain and leaching of N-compounds with the soil water. The main (“level-3”) field sites in the NitroEurope project are supposed to measure 95% of the N fluxes at the field scale. For several of the N fluxes specific measurements have been performed for 1 year or longer at the site. Some of the remaining N budget components (dry and wet deposition) could be estimated from results of a national deposition network, while other components (NH₃ and N₂ emission) were estimated based on literature parameterisations. However, we found indications that the (systematic) uncertainties of these estimated N-fluxes are large and that it is important to make site-specific measurement for all relevant budget components. The suitability of corresponding experimental methods is discussed.Analysis of the C budget over a 6-year period (2002–2007) showed a significant mean difference between the two newly established grassland fields with a likely net carbon loss for the extensive management and a net sequestration for the intensive management. Since the C/N ratio of the soil organic matter of the grassland is constrained in a rather narrow range around 9.3, the change in the soil carbon pool is supposed to be accompanied by a corresponding change in the N storage. This approach provided an alternative method to check the N budget of the two grassland fields derived from the individual N fluxes.     

Residual benefits of promiscuous soybean to maize (Zea mays L.) grown on farmers’ fields around Minna in the southern Guinea savanna zone of Nigeria

Biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) by promiscuous cultivars of soybeans (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) in cereal-based cropping systems of Nigeria’s moist savanna zone offers a potential for minimizing the investment made by resource-poor farmers on nitrogen fertilizers. A 3-year trial was conducted on five farmers’ fields in the southern Guinea savanna zone of Nigeria to assess the residual effects of two successive crops of promiscuous soybean cultivars on the yield of a following maize (Zea mays L.) crop. The soybean cultivars, TGX1456-2E (medium maturity) and TGX1660-19F (late maturity), were grown in 1996 and 1997. Treatments, imposed only in the first year of the trial, were: (i) uninoculated, (ii) inoculated with a mixture of two Bradyrhizobium strains, and (iii) fertilized with 60 kg N ha⁻¹. A fourth treatment was a plot left to fallow. In 1998, all the previous soybean and fallow plots were sown to maize without any fertilizer application. Results in 1996 and 1997 showed a soybean response to inoculation in the first year, but differences due to the residual effect of inoculation in the second year were not significant. Both cultivars showed a similar response to inoculation but responses at the five sites were varied. Soybean cultivar 1456-2E fixed 43–52% of its N amounting to 56–70 kg N ha⁻¹ and cultivar 1660-19F derived 39–54% of its N from N₂-fixation which amounted to 51–78 kg N ha⁻¹. Both cultivars had a high N harvest index resulting in a net removal of 52–95 kg N ha⁻¹ when both grain and stover were exported. Even when the stover was returned, there was a depletion of 23–65 kg N ha⁻¹, with 1456-2E removing more N than 1660-19F. Arbuscular-mycorrhizal infection on maize roots was 11–27% and dependent on previous soybean treatments and farmers’ fields. Plant height, shoot biomass, grain yield, and N uptake of maize were significantly greater in plots previously sown to soybean than in the fallow plots. In general, plots sown to the late maturing cultivar 1660-19F exhibited better residual effect, producing larger yield parameters than the plots planted with medium maturing 1456-2E.     

Regional crop yield, water consumption and water use efficiency and their responses to climate change in the North China Plain

The North China Plain (NCP) is one of the most important regions for food production in China, with its agricultural system being significantly affected by the undergoing climate change and vulnerable with water stress. In this study, the Vegetation Interface Processes (VIP) model is used to evaluate crop yield, water consumption (ET), and water use efficiency (WUE) of a winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)–summer maize (Zea mays L.) double cropping system in the NCP from 1951 to 2006. Their responses to future climate scenarios of 21st century projected by the GCM (HadCM3) with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenario (IPCC SRES) A2 and B1 emissions are investigated. The results show a rapid enhancement of crop yield in the past 56 years, accompanying with slight increment of ET and noticeable improvement of WUE. There exist spatial patterns of crop yield stemmed mainly from soil quality and irrigation facilities. For climate change impacts, it is found that winter wheat yield will significantly increase with the maximum increment in A2 occurring in 2070s with a value of 19%, whereas the maximum in B1 being 13% in 2060s. Its ET is slightly intensified, which is less than 6%, under both A2 and B1 scenarios, giving rise to the improvement of WUE by 10% and 7% under A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. Comparatively, summer maize yield will gently decline by 15% for A2 and 12% for B1 scenario, respectively. Its ET is obviously increasing since 2050s with over 10% relative change, leading to a lower WUE with more than 25% relative change under both scenarios in 2090s. Therefore, possible adaptation countermeasures should be developed to mitigate the negative effects of climate change for the sustainable development of agro-ecosystems in the NCP.     

Integrating mitigation and adaptation into climate and development policy: three research questions

The potential for developing synergies between climate change mitigation and adaptation has become a recent focus of both climate research and policy. Presumably the interest in synergies springs from the appeal of creating win–win situations by implementing a single climate policy option. However, institutional complexity, insufficient opportunities and uncertainty surrounding their efficiency and effectiveness present major challenges to the widespread development of synergies. There are also increasing calls for research to define the optimal mix of mitigation and adaptation. These calls are based on the misguided assumption that there is one single optimal mix of adaptation and mitigation options for all possible scenarios of climate and socio-economic change, notwithstanding uncertainty and irrespective of the diversity of values and preferences in society. In the face of current uncertainty, research is needed to provide guidance on how to develop a socially and economically justifiable mix of mitigation, adaptation and development policy, as well as on which elements would be part of such a mix. Moreover, research is needed to establish the conditions under which the process of mainstreaming can be most effective. Rather than actually developing and implementing specific mitigation and adaptation options, the objective of climate policy should be to facilitate such development and implementation as part of sectoral policies. Finally, analysis needs to focus on the optimal use and expected effectiveness of financial instruments, taking into account the mutual effects between these instruments on the one hand, and national and international sectoral investments and official development assistance on the other.