地震灾害物理损失与心理损失关系浅析——以云南鲁甸地震为例

地震灾害因其破坏性巨大,往往给受灾者造成巨大的物理损失和心理损失。为了更好地阐述心理损失概念和与物理损失之间的关系,以云南鲁甸地震为例,运用多元统计中的因子分析法,对云南鲁甸地震进行分类处理,并将结果与受灾者的心理健康损失状况进行相关分析,结果表明在不同类型的地震灾害中物理损失和心理损失呈现高度相关及个体认知差异化等特点。     

暴风雪环境下灾区受灾群体心理重建分析

由于受灾群体心理重建分析的心理重建效果差,为了降低受灾群体心理波动指数,加强受灾群体的心理重建效果,该文出了暴风雪环境下灾区受灾群体心理重建分析。通过灾害给受灾群体所带来的伤害,分析了受灾群体的基本心理需求;利用灾区受灾群体心理障碍挖掘流程,完成了灾区受灾群体心理障碍的挖掘;针对受灾群体不同的心理状态,计算了心理重建模型在t时刻的心理状态值,总结出心理重建维度的权重取值,通过受灾群体心理重建模型的特征设定,完成受灾群体心理重建模型的构建;最后通过受灾群体心理重建流程设计,实现了暴风雪环境下受灾群体的心理重建。     

基于BP神经网络的受灾点的需求紧迫性分级方法

大规模突发事件发生后,往往会涉及到多个受灾区域,使得应急救援的受灾点数目众多。当应急资源有限,运输能力受约束时,为提高应急救援效率,应急物资的调运和配送需要根据受灾点的需求优先级进行。因此,对受灾点进行需求紧迫性的分级排序就非常关键。该文提出了基于BP神经网络的分级方法,构建了影响受灾点的需求紧迫性的评价指标体系,建立了基于BP神经网络的需求紧迫性分级模型。最后,实例验证表明BP神经网络对检验样本的结果输出和期望输出是一致的;并与TOPSIS法、灰色关联分析法和熵权法3种方法的评价结果进行比较,进一步证明了该分级评价方法的科学性和有效性。     

突发公共安全事件的风险沟通难题——从心理学角度的观察

任何突发公共安全事件一定会影响到公众的心理,而公众的心理行为反过来又会对事件的发展演变产生巨大的影响。在危机发生时期,相关政府部门尤其需要了解突发事件中的公众心理,并通过科学地发布风险信息来减轻和化解社会心理压力,同时引导公众正确地认知风险。从风险沟通的角度入手,以问题形式报告了心理学界在风险认知及行为决策方面所积累的研究,希望这些研究成果能够为突发公共安全事件应急方案的制定提供心理学方面的理论依据。     

有偿救灾初探

从人们的救灾心理和救灾行为的经济学特点入手，探讨了有偿救灾对于保证救灾工作的顺利进行、使防灾减灾最终成为大家的自觉行动，从而逐步减少灾害的现实意义。指出在我国现有生产力发展水平下，积极发展有偿救灾，使之逐步成为主要的灾害救助形式，并且提出了建立政府救灾基金，建立救灾公积金，以及鼓励企业以联合经营形式对受灾企业进行救助等有偿救灾设想。     

公众在重大灾害发生时心理危机干预分析

为帮助受灾群众减轻重大灾害发生时的心理危机,对公众在重大灾害发生时心理危机干预进行分析。设计了公众心理干预支撑服务体系,通过认知模式、心理转变模式、支持资源整合模式以及平衡模式识别公众心理危机。采用宣传教育、提出心理危机干预议题、现场心理危机干预和构建心理危机干预组织的方法完成公众心理危机干预。针对我国人口与重大灾害发生特点建议制定心理危机干预法律法规、科学构建重大灾害发生后相关制度、重视发生次生灾难对公众心理产生的叠加冲击,以减轻受灾对象心理危机,为心理危机干预提供科学支撑,帮助受灾群众减轻重大灾害发生时的心理危机。     

山坡泥石流场地易损性评价

基于易损性系由受灾体自身内在性质所决定的认识，论述了山坡泥石流场地易损性的构成要索，即受灾体遭受山坡泥石流破坏机会的大小和造成损毁的难易程度。前者与受灾体和泥石流的相对空间位置等因素有关，后者主要受受灾体物质成分、结构和状态等的影响。在此基础上，提出了山坡泥石流场地易损性评价模型，并给出了评价实例。     

重大自然灾害后心理干预行为教育对策

重大灾害对社会经济和生命财产安全都存在严重的影响,而灾区人们的心理变化和行为反应,与社会整体的抗灾救灾效果都具有较大的关联性。该文探讨重大灾害后心理干预行为教育对策,针对灾害对灾区人们产生的心理应激障碍问题,采用叙事疗法按照构建契约、故事重建、制图、探险、结束和复查五步骤,将灾区受灾人群从不良的生活模式中唤醒,并通过体育干预从主体、个体、群体三个角度指引灾区人群,建立正确、积极的人生价值观与社会价值观,采用阅读疗法优化灾区人群的认知结构。     

台风等重大灾害性事件的风险认知及预警机制

通过调查受灾民众及未受灾民众对台风等重大灾害性事件的风险认知及预警情况,比较两者的差异,为政府对重大灾害性事件建立预警管理模式提供依据。研究结果表明:①受灾民众和未受灾民众对重大灾害性事件的风险认知水平低,受灾民众对台风的风险认知明显高于未受灾民众(P<0.01);②两者对提升防灾意识的意愿强烈但对防灾资讯关心程度不够,且受灾民众明显更关心防灾资讯(P<0.01);③两者在通过某项预防措施可以避免灾害所造成的损失和撤离危险地区的问题上意见基本一致,但未受灾民众对政府辅助撤离更具有依赖性(P<0.01,P<0.05);④受灾民众比未受灾民众更相信科学家对灾害的预警能力(P<0.01),但均对目前的灾害预警系统满意度一般。     

1993年我国因灾损失993亿元

１９９３年我国因灾损失９９３亿元经民政部门统计，１９９３年全国近５０００万ｈａ农作物受灾，受灾农作物中，减产３０％以上者占总受灾面积的４０％，减产８０％者占总受灾面积的２０％以上，倒塌房屋２７１万间，损坏９３３万间，因灾死亡６０００多人，伤１万多人，...     

基于贝叶斯网络的突发事件影响度研究

不确定性的知识表示和推理是突发事件影响度评估中需要解决的重要问题。针对突发事件评估信息的多样性、不确定性及模糊性,利用贝叶斯网络易于进行不确定性推理的优点,提出了采用贝叶斯网络对突发事件影响度进行评价,建立了评价模型,给出了推理决策方法,并且对该方法进行了算例分析。算例表明,基于贝叶斯网络的突发事件影响度评价模型能够提高评估的准确度及对突发事件的响应能力。     

Chaos, order and world view: tibetan refugees in Switzerland

This article is about culturally specific responses to extreme events. The concept of social chaos and some criteria for distinguishing this concept are discussed. Social chaos refers to an extreme situation in which neither the rules of normal behaviour nor those for coping with unexpected problems apply. It is suggested that the concept of world view may be an asset in the study of social chaos. The case of Tibetan refugees in Switzerland is presented to show how the ability of a society to survive a disaster is related to the specific outlook on the world shared by members of that society. Finally, it is asked whether it would be possible to account for a society's response to disasters, on the basis of socio-cultural factors.     

Therapeutic governance: psycho-social intervention and trauma risk management,.

This paper critically analyses the significance of psycho-social intervention as a new form of international therapeutic governance based on social risk management. First, the paper examines the international psycho-social model and its origins in an Anglo-American therapeutic ethos. Second, the paper argues that psycho-social approaches jeopardise local coping strategies. Third, the paper highlights the potential political, social and psychological consequences of the pathologisation of war-affected societies. Finally the paper concludes that therapeutic governance represents the reduction of politics to administration.     

Coping and adaptation strategies and institutional perceptions of hydrological risk in an urban Amazonian city

This paper investigates coping and adaptation strategies and institutional perceptions of hydrological risk at the local scale in Santarém, an Amazonian city in the state of Pará, Brazil. Methods and tools of analysis encompassed secondary data, field observations, and qualitative techniques (focus-group discussions and in-depth interviews). Stakeholders from affected neighbourhoods describe their means of coping with and adapting to flooding, focusing on purposefulness, type of initiative and investment, risk timing, temporal and spatial scope, and performance. The results comprise an inventory of 16 mostly structural measures. The perceptions of six institutions of general responses to flooding are presented as opinions on actions that reduce the effects of such events, individual strategies and collective community endeavours in at-risk areas, and the activities of the public and private sectors to manage floods. Understanding of coping and adaptation strategies and knowledge of institutional flood risk perceptions can benefit the implementation of risk and disaster reduction policies and practices.     

Cyclone disaster vulnerability and response experiences in coastal Bangladesh

For generations, cyclones and tidal surges have frequently devastated lives and property in coastal and island Bangladesh. This study explores vulnerability to cyclone hazards using first‐hand coping recollections from prior to, during and after these events. Qualitative field data suggest that, beyond extreme cyclone forces, localised vulnerability is defined in terms of response processes, infrastructure, socially uneven exposure, settlement development patterns, and livelihoods. Prior to cyclones, religious activities increase and people try to save food and valuable possessions. Those in dispersed settlements who fail to reach cyclone shelters take refuge in thatched‐roof houses and big‐branch trees. However, women and children are affected more despite the modification of traditional hierarchies during cyclone periods. Instinctive survival strategies and intra‐community cooperation improve coping post cyclone. This study recommends that disaster reduction programmes encourage cyclone mitigation while being aware of localised realities, endogenous risk analyses, and coping and adaptation of affected communities (as active survivors rather than helpless victims).     

Risk factors for long‐term post‐traumatic stress disorder among medical rescue workers appointed to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake response in China

This study aims to determine the risk factors for clinically‐significant post‐traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among Chinese medical rescue workers one year after the response to the Wenchuan earthquake on 12 May 2008. A sample of 337 medical workers who performed response work within the first three months of the event completed an online questionnaire, which included information on demographics, social support, the management and organisation of the disaster response, and an assessment of PTSD. Symptoms consistent with PTSD were prevalent in 17 per cent of the rescue workers. Those who developed PTSD symptoms were more likely to have been injured, experienced a water shortage, been disconnected from family and friends during the response, and have passive coping styles and neurotic personalities. Factors that cannot be changed easily, such as personality traits, should be evaluated prior to deployment to ensure that rescue workers at higher risk of PTSD are provided with adequate support before and during deployment.     

Monitoring Local Food Security and Coping Strategies: Lessons from Information Collection and Analysis in Mopti, Mali

Save the Children Fund (UK) established a local food security monitoring project in the Mopti region of Mali, which was operational between 1987 and 1993. This article describes some of the lessons learnt from this experience of monitoring food security and coping strategies. It illustrates how coping strategies can be an important element in tracking vulnerability in the Sahel, but that interpretation is complex and there are limitations to their use. Secondly, consideration must be given to the institutional context in which information systems are set up. Information providers must be linked institutionally to response mechanisms, to ensure that data are fed systematically into the design, implementation and monitoring of appropriate response.     

‘Here,I'm not at ease’: anthropological perspectives on community resilience

A number of recent studies on disaster reconstruction have focused on the concept of community resilience and its importance in the recovery of communities from collective trauma. This article reviews the contributions the anthropological literature and the ethnographic case studies of two post‐Hurricane Mitch housing reconstruction sites make to the theorising of community and resilience in post‐disaster reconstruction. Specifically, the article demonstrates that communities are not static or neatly bounded entities that remain constant before, during and after a disaster; rather, communities take on shape and qualities depending on the relationships in which they engage with government agencies and aid organisations before and after disasters. Consequently, the article argues that definitions of community resilience and disaster mitigation programmes must take the emergent and relational nature of communities into account in order to address the long‐term causes and impacts of disasters.     

Rangeland Fire Protection Associations as disaster response organisations

Rangeland Fire Protection Associations (RFPAs) are volunteer-based groups of trained private landowners who are authorised to respond to events in partnership with governmental agencies. This study analysed the functioning and structure of RFPAs in Idaho and Oregon in the western United States to characterise this under-researched model of disaster response. RFPAs represent an expanding type of disaster response organisation that interfaces with established fire suppression entities, yet ‘emergent behaviour’ manifested in some RFPA response actions. This appeared to lessen and mediate with time, as well as due to recognition of the issues, increased experience of fires, and training that fostered new mutual understandings. There is a need for continued examination of the effect of repeat experience in developing the characteristics of disaster response organisations. In addition, it is crucial to know how the interface between established and other types of organisations may be enhanced to make cooperative disaster response more effective.     

In the aftermath of the Qa'yamat:1 the Kashmir earthquake disaster in northern Pakistan

This article explores the local impact of the catastrophic earthquake in northern Pakistan on 8 October 2005. Drawing on field research, including interviews with 40 earthquake survivors, the post-disaster analysis presented here focuses upon risk awareness and the reactions of respondents to the 7.6 magnitude earthquake that devastated areas of Azad Jammu and Kashmir State, and North-West Frontier Province. The analysis provides insights into local perceptions of seismic hazard and exposure as well as survivors' priorities with regard to rebuilding and reconstruction. The article suggests that the tragedy of the devastating earthquake is entangled in a deeper knot of causal factors that are social, economic and political in nature. Rapid population growth, urbanisation, changing building styles, environmental degradation and lack of preparedness and mitigation are associated with the circumstances that place the population at risk. Remarks concerning present and future risk reduction efforts are included.