Reconciling the supply of scientific information with user demands: an analysis of the problem and review of the literature

Policy makers around the world are calling for the production and diffusion of more useful information for environmental decision-making. Ideally, useful information expands alternatives, clarifies choice and enables policy makers to achieve desired outcomes. Decision makers, however, often lack the useful information needed for good decision-making. By concentrating efforts on increasing the supply of scientific information, scientists may not be producing information considered relevant and useful by decision makers, and may simply be producing too much of the wrong kind of information. Users may have specific information needs that go unmet, or may not be aware of the existence of potentially useful information. This paper defines the practical problem of reconciling the supply of scientific information with users’ demands so that scientists produce information that decision makers need and use in policy decisions. Literature from a variety of disciplines and topics is reviewed to: explain the goals of reconciling the supply and demand of scientific information; define what constitutes useful information; explore lessons learned from experience and describe the characteristics and conditioning factors that shaped those experiences; and identify various alternative strategies and processes that forge stronger science policy linkages. The paper concludes with recommendations for future research.     

基于不确定性的矿区污染治理投入决策研究

基于现实的基础上,考虑矿区污染治理所面临的不确定性,对污染治理最优投入的政策决策机制进行研究.根据污染治理投入成本的不可逆性及不确定性建立污染治理最优投入决策机制模型,求出了污染治理投入的临界点.结果表明,该模型能够真实、客观、全面地评价矿区污染治理投入决策机制,并可动态指导治理政策实施的最优时机.同时,分析了模型中各参数对污染治理决策的影响,结合案例验证了此模型在污染治理决策问题上的分析结果.结果发现,考虑了不确定性的模型有效避免了传统决策模型的局限性,可以帮助政府和煤矿企业做出科学有效的污染治理投入决策和制度设计,能更有效地推动煤矿企业安全生产的实施.本研究对环境政策的制定和实施具有理论和实践指导意义.     

Regulating carbon emissions from indirect land use change (ILUC): U.S. and California case studies

As lifecycle emissions accounting becomes more widely used in policy, it is important to understand how it has been applied. This paper analyses policy-making for two U.S. fuel regulations—the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS)—that were pioneering not only in using life cycle assessment (LCA) in performance-based environmental regulations, but especially for including emissions from indirect land use change (ILUC). The case studies in this paper focus, in particular, on the decision to include ILUC in lifecycle emissions accounting. Tracing the development of these policies shows the key role of environmental policy entrepreneurs in advocating for ILUC emissions accounting during policy formulation. Moreover, it highlights a paradox in the use of science: although ILUC policy proponents were motivated by best available research, they were also politically enabled by scientific uncertainty and lack of understanding. Understanding this political dimension of decision-making is valuable for scholars as well as practitioners facing similar decisions.     

A proposed Multi Criteria Analysis decision support tool for international environmental policy issues: a pilot application to emissions control in the international aviation sector

Policy making at the level of international environmental problems appears to lack a transparent, multi criteria based, decision support ‘tool’. This is due mainly to the highly political, volatile, and contextual nature of issues at this level. The environmental problem of how to regulate emissions from international civil aviation due to their transboundary nature, and the participation of international and domestic players, makes it a ‘wicked’ international environmental problem where policy making has proved problematic. This problem has been used as the basis for developing and pilot testing a tool for contributing to international policymaking, the Multi Criteria Decision Support System (MCDSS). This tool is based on simplifying and integrating key components of Multi Criteria Analysis with a Decision Support System. A preliminary application of the tool explored three options for progressing the reduction of aviation emissions. Testing was based on the allocation of weights to environmental, social, economic and institutional categories, which were each then internally weighted to reflect key criteria in the policy process. Finally, likely performances of each option, against the criteria, were evaluated against Likert scale measures. The outputs from each of these steps were combined to generate a summed best policy option. Conclusions have been drawn and they indicate that the tool is potentially useful especially in the initial stages of policy development. The MCDSS is not an alternative to the international policy process, but rather complements, and makes explicit key tradeoffs in, that process.     

The effect of modelling expert knowledge and uncertainty on multicriteria decision making: a river management case study

To support decision making on complex environmental issues, models are often used to explore the potential impacts of different management alternatives on the environmental system. We explored how different model outcomes affect decision making. Two topics have our particular interest, namely (1) the influence of quantification of qualitative information on decision making, and (2) the influence of reflecting uncertainty in the model outcomes on decision making. We set up a survey, in which we use a case study describing a decision making situation in strategic river management. The survey was disseminated through the Internet. From the results we conclude that the quantification of information in itself does not necessarily change preferences, although the outcomes suggest that preferences converge when based on quantified information. When confronted with uncertainty information, respondents show a preference for the alternative with the smallest chance of negative impacts. The study shows that, whereas the modelling community often strives to provide the policy process with as good, and as detailed information as is possible, their assumption that this will automatically lead to ‘better’ decision making is not self-evident.     

The successful completion of scientific public policy: lessons learned while developing Canada’s Wild Salmon Policy

Canada’s Wild Salmon Policy gives Canadians the opportunity to make informed decisions about the amount of habitat, ecosystem, and salmon diversity to protect, in order to provide salmon with the potential to adapt and survive in a changing environment. Valuable lessons learned during the completion of this recent landmark conservation policy include: (1) there must be an express need for major new policies and decision makers should be receptive to proposed changes; (2) resource and expertise allocation should be realistic to ensure successful and timely policy completion; (3) science-based policies must be based on good science; (4) environmental policies require input from multiple disciplines—biological consequences are only one element that politicians and decision-makers need to consider; (5) since there will always be uncertainty, and different perspectives on the level of risk that various stakeholders are willing to accept, a precautionary approach is appropriate; (6) to be effective, communication should be open and transparent; and finally (7) it is important to think beyond policy completion—how will the policy be implemented? Documenting these lessons should assist others, thereby resulting in more efficient completion of science-based policies.     

Climate change policy and water resources in the EU and Spain. A closer look into the Water Framework Directive

Climate change effects are becoming evident worldwide, with serious regional and local impacts. The European Union (EU) has launched and developed initiatives and policies that scratch the surface of water resources impacts. This article presents an introduction of the existing environmental policy and more concisely in the areas of climate change and the interactions with water resources. It also addresses main management tools, and plans linked to policies, recent updates on the Science–Policy Interface, highlighting major results from research and development projects. Establishing appropriate policies to tackle climate change impacts on water is essential given the cross-sectorial and flowing nature and the importance of water in all environmental, social and economic sectors. There are still some pending reviews and updates in the current EU policy and its implementation, as well as at the national level in Spain. This article identifies existing gaps, and provides recommendations on how and where reforms could take place and be applied by decision makers in the water policy sector.     

A decision tree approach modelling functional group abundance in a pasture ecosystem

Decision tree, one of the data mining approaches, was used to model the relative abundance of five functional groups of plant species, namely high fertility response grasses (HFRG), low fertility tolerance grasses (LFTG), legume, moss and flatweeds in a New Zealand hill-pasture ecosystem using aboveground biomass. The model outputs were integrated with a geographic information system (GIS) to map and validate the predictions on a pasture. The decision tree models clearly revealed the interactions between the functional groups and environmental and management factors, and also indicated the relative importance of these factors in influencing the functional group abundance. Soil Olsen P was the most significant factor influencing the abundance of LFTG and moss, while soil bulk density, slope and annual P fertiliser input were the most significant factors influencing the abundance of legume, HFRG and flatweeds, respectively. Generally, slope and soil Olsen P were the two key factors underlying the patterns of abundance for these five functional groups. For the five functional groups studied, there was an overall predictive accuracy of 75%. Modelling functional group abundance simplified the investigation of the complex interrelationship between species and environment in a pasture ecosystem. The integration of the decision tree with GIS in this study provides a platform to investigate community structure and functional composition for a pasture over space, and thus can be applied as a tool in pasture management.     

生命周期视角下废弃餐饮油脂炼制生物柴油的环境效益分析

废弃餐饮油脂的资源化利用是关乎公众健康和环境保护的重要举措.目前我国废弃餐饮油脂炼制生物柴油的环境效益尚不明晰、国家政策模糊,相关产业发展滞缓.本研究以国内废弃餐饮油脂炼制生物柴油的典型企业为例,利用GaBi软件对废弃餐饮油脂的收集、预处理、酯化和运输等过程全生命周期阶段的资源环境影响进行系统核算,评估其环境效益,以期为国家生物柴油行业发展和相关政策制定提供科学依据.研究结果表明:①整个生命周期过程中,酯化阶段的环境影响最大,各指标占比为52.91%～96.05%,其环境影响主要是由燃煤、用电和甲醇消耗引起;②敏感性分析结果显示,燃煤、用电、甲醇消耗和收集距离的变化对整个生命周期环境影响结果有着较大影响;③废弃餐饮油脂炼制的生物柴油生命周期化石能源消耗16406 MJ·t~(-1)、温室气体排放815 kg CO_2 eq·t~(-1),与石化柴油相比,具有较好的节能和温室气体减排效益.     

A decision inventory approach for improving decision support for climate change impact assessment and adaptation

Assessing and adapting to the impacts of climate change requires balancing social, economic, and environmental factors in the context of an ever-expanding range of objectives, uncertainties, and management options. The term decision support describes a diverse class of resources designed to help manage this complexity and assist decision makers in understanding impacts and evaluating management options. Most climate-related decision support resources implicitly assume that decision making is primarily limited by the quantity and quality of available information. However, a wide variety of evidence suggests that institutional, political, and communication processes are also integral to organizational decision making. Decision support resources designed to address these processes are underrepresented in existing tools. These persistent biases in the design and delivery of decision support may undermine efforts to move decision support from research to practice. The development of new approaches to decision support that consider a wider range of relevant issues is limited by the lack of information about the characteristics, context, and alternatives associated with climate-related decisions. We propose a new approach called a decision assessment and decision inventory that will provide systematic information describing the relevant attributes of climate-related decisions. This information can be used to improve the design of decision support resources, as well as to prioritize research and development investments. Application of this approach will help provide more effective decision support based on a balanced foundation of analytical tools, environmental data, and relevant information about decisions and decision makers.     

The role of environmental statisticians in environmental policy: the case of performance measurement

Environmental statisticians often experience the difficult task to provide clear results for environmental policy objectives on the basis of complex science, limited data, and many sources of uncertainty. This paper highlights the particularly challenging situation of environmental statistics in developing countries before focusing on the role of statisticians working at the nexus of environmental statistics and policy within the context of measuring environmental performance. Three issues create particular tension at the environmental science-policy junction: (1) the general complexity of environmental problems (including scientific uncertainty and insufficient data) and the often negative perceptions associated with their solution, (2) the comparatively recent introduction of quantitative methods and information to the environmental policy process and continued skepticism and ideologically motivated resistance to their routine integration, and (3) the language barriers between policymakers and statisticians as well as between statisticians and other scientists engaged in environmental research. Based on the case study of the 2006 Pilot Environmental Performance Index (EPI) developed by an interdisciplinary team at the universities Yale and Columbia the paper examines how the EPI tackles these tensions while aiming to be a fact-based, statistically sound policy tool that helps countries achieve environmental objectives by tracking progress, identifying environmental “best practices”, and providing strategic peer-group analyses. In conclusion, the paper suggests some remedies for the deficiencies in the co-operation between policymakers and environmental statisticians.     

Ecological knowledge and North Sea environmental policies

In an analysis of North Sea eutrophication science and policies, focusing on the period 1980–2005, it was investigated how scientific information was used in policy-making. The analysis focused on the central assumptions of the rational policy-making model, i.e. that scientific information can be used to formulate decisions, based upon objective scientific information (rational decision-making), and secondly, can support implementing these decisions (rational management). In general terms, the following was concluded:

• •More knowledge has increased rather than reduced uncertainty;
• •In order to handle the problem of dealing with complexity and uncertainty at the political level, a simplification of facts has occurred, in this case focusing on nutrients as the main cause of the problem, at the same time excluding other possible causes;
• •Both the limited scientific view (i.e. the nutrient view) and the exaggeration of the seriousness of the problem (impacts, scope) have been used as an authoritative basis for the justification of political decisions. Both were not supported by the majority of the scientific community;
• •New scientific knowledge, not in support of existing policies, has been excluded from the policy process;
• •The science–policy interface, mainly consisting of “civil-servant scientists”, that emerged and increased its influence over the period of investigation, has been the central element in the simplification and exclusion process.

The main lesson learned is that work at the interface of science and policy must be subject to democratic principles, i.e. be transparent and involving all parties with a stake in the issue under consideration.     

国家环境质量决策支持系统的研制与开发

国家环境质量决策支持系统(简称NEQDSS)是一个以全国52个重点城市为控制依托和具有环境质量模拟、预测,方案比较评价等辅助决策功能的环境决策支持系统。它能够为环境管理部门制定中长期环境质量控制方案以及为有关的环境政策提供有效的科学决策手段和有力的信息支持。本文概括地论述了其功能需求确定、数据需求分析和系统设计,同时对开发技术和远期开发分别作了总结和展望。      

不确定性下区域规划环评方案优化方法框架研究

为了弥补以往规划环评方案中存在的两个缺陷,构建了不确定性条件下融合型和调整型区域规划环评方案优化方法框架,从而消除规划方案本身潜在的环境影响,且实现了规划方案和环境保护补救措施的系统优化及其不确定性风险决策.同时,从方法学上,基于强化区间优化模型建立了不确定性条件下规划方案和补救措施的双层优化方法.最后,针对郑州市土地利用总体规划(1997～2010年)的规划环评,以生态系统服务功能价值的最大化为目标,以郑州市土地资源、经济发展(GDP)和环境指标(土地承载COD排放总量)为约束条件,得到不同风险水平下土地利用规划优化方案.结果表明:①优化后的规划方案的生态系统服务功能价值高于原规划方案,约为原规划方案的1.45～1.52倍,且完全能满足郑州市2010年GDP目标;②有必要在未来融合型或调整型规划环评融入不确定性优化思想,且需要为决策者提供不同环境风险水平下的决策方案.     

Analytical lenses on barriers in the governance of climate change adaptation

Barriers to adaptation have become an important concept in scientific and political discussions in the governance of climate change adaptation. Over the past years, these discussions have been dominated by one analytical lens in examining barriers and proposing ways to overcome them: the problem solving lens. In this paper, we aim to demonstrate theoretically and empirically that the choice of analytical lens influences how barriers to adaptation are constructed and the intervention strategies proposed. Drawing from recent governance literature, we explore the rationale of three dominant philosophies in the study of governance: the optimist, the realist, and the pessimist philosophy. Next, we demonstrate how these philosophies are operationalized and guide scientific inquiry on barriers to adaptation through four empirically rooted analytical lenses: i) governance as problem solving, ii) governance as competing values and interests, iii) governance as institutional interaction, and iv) governance as dealing with structural constraints. We investigate the Dutch government’s Spatial Adaptation to Climate Change programme through each of the four lenses. We discuss how each analytical lens frames barriers in a specific way, identifies different causes of barriers, leads to competing interpretations of key events, and presents other types of interventions to overcome barriers. We conclude that it is necessary to increase analytical variety in order to critically engage in theoretical debates about barriers and to empower policy practitioners in their search for successful intervention strategies to implement adaptation measures.     

Multiattribute utility analysis for addressing Section 316(b) of the Clean Water Act

We believe that the fundamental issues associated with implementing Section 316(b) of the Clean Water Act are whether or not it requires a balancing of objectives and if it does, how that balancing should be done. If balancing is required, we recommend the use of multiattribute utility analysis (MUA). MUA is a formal, analytic approach for evaluating and comparing options for decisions with multiple objectives. It differentiates the two types of judgments needed for public policy decisions: (1) value judgments, which indicate what people want to happen as the result of a decision and their willingness to make tradeoffs, and (2) scientific judgments, which indicate what scientists or other technical specialists think is likely to happen based on the option that is chosen. MUA provides an approach for deciding what is an ‘adverse environmental impact’ and what is ‘best technology available’ based on site-specific considerations that can be consistently applied to all cooling water intakes. To illustrate the first step of a collaborative MUA process, we present a preliminary hierarchy of objectives constructed during a 1-day meeting held with regulators, electric utilities, and environmental groups to address the renewal of SPDES permits for four power plants operating on the Hudson River.     

Responding to scientific uncertainty in U.S. forest policy

Scientific uncertainty plays a significant role in forest policy and planning. Ecological complexity, the gap between science and policy, and public perceptions of science all contribute to the challenge of dealing with scientific uncertainty. This paper provides an overview of the role of scientific uncertainty in U.S. forest policy and an analysis of the requirements for responding to uncertainty under the National Forest Management Act, National Environmental Policy Act, and Endangered Species Act. The analysis includes a review of a broad range of literature and relevant statutory and regulatory language, along with several illustrative examples of case law. Findings include that all three laws allow for considerable agency discretion in cases of scientific uncertainty, and none prescribes a particular response to uncertainty. Approaches such as adaptive management may provide a way to proceed despite uncertainty, and while this approach represents something of a new paradigm in public land management, it is not incompatible with the current legal framework. The article concludes with recommendations, such as increased transparency and changes in the norms of judicial review, for increasing the accountability of decisions when uncertainty is involved. Also considered are other suggestions, such as peer-review, Daubert standards, and Bayesian inference techniques.     

Matching knowledge brokering strategies to environmental policy problems and settings

The benefits of utilizing intermediaries to broker understanding between environmental scientists and policy makers have become widely touted. Yet little is known about the tasks boundary spanners undertake to develop environmental policy solutions and how these tasks fit into frameworks intended to advance public policy decision making. Such frameworks may be constructed to aid decision makers in differentiating between the types of environmental policy issues that confront them or the policy settings in which they are operating. Consequently, this paper examines how six different knowledge brokering strategies; informing, consulting, matchmaking, engaging, collaborating and building capacity might be employed in responding to different types of environmental policy problems or policy settings identified in decision aiding frameworks. Using real world examples, four frameworks are reviewed. They are; Lindquist's [Lindquist, E.A., 1988. What do decision models tell us about information use? Knowledge in Society 1 (2), 86–111; Lindquist, E.A., 1990. The third community, policy inquiry, and social scientists. In: Stephen Brooks, S., Gagnon, A. (Eds.), Social Scientists, Policy and the State. Praeger, New York; Lindquist, E.A., 2001. Discerning policy influence: framework for a strategic evaluation of IDRC-Supported research] decision regimes, Turnhout et al.’s [Turnhout, E., Hisschemoller, M., Eijsackers, H., 2007. Ecological indicators: between the two fires of science and policy. Ecological Indicators 7 (2), 215–228] science policy typology, Holling's [Holling, C.S., 1995. What barriers? What bridges? In: Gunderson, L.H., Holling, C.S. (Eds.), Barriers and Bridges to the Renewal of Ecosystems and Institutions. Columbia University Press, New York, pp. 3–34] adaptive cycle and Kurtz and Snowden's [Kurtz, C.F., Snowden, D.J., 2003. The new dynamics of strategy: sense-making in a complex and complicated world. IBM Systems Journal 42 (3), 462–483] Cynefin domains. For the different problem types or policy settings described in the decision aiding frameworks primary knowledge brokering strategies are identified. While the frameworks differ in their conceptual constructions, the applicability of specific knowledge brokering strategies serve as a commonality across particular problem types and policy settings.     

Adaptation Options Strategies for Hazards and Vulnerability Mitigation: An International Perspective

The broad objective of this special issue of Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change is to address some of the gaps in our knowledge and understanding of the policies, programs, and measures that might be applied to natural hazards and their impacts in an era of climate change. Given the global impacts of climate change and world-wide pattern of increasing losses from natural hazards we necessarily adopt an international perspective. The specific goals of the special issue are to: (a) encompass experiential aspects, emphasizing current practice of mitigation and its associated measures, and their results; and (b) explore primary or root causes of alarming shifts in human and economic costs of environmental extremes. Special emphasis is placed on how human activities are playing a key role in enhancing vulnerability to NTEE (nature-triggered environmental extremes), quite independently from the anthropogenic causes of climate change. The goals are also (c) to examine costs, risks, and benefits (of all kinds including social, political, ecological) of mitigation, and adjustment and adaptation measures; and (d) analyze policy implications of alternative measures. These components are expected to make significant contributions to policy considerations – formulation, implementation and evaluation. There is much uncertainty about the rate of climate change; however, the fact of increase of the atmospheric temperature in the last century is no longer a subject of scientific or policy debate. Due to such changes in the geophysical parameters, certain types of nature-triggered environmental extreme events are likely to continue to increase. How global warming will affect regional climates and pertinent variables is not well known, limiting our ability to predict consequential effects. This factor poses serious constraints against any straightforward policy decisions. Research findings of the work of this volume reaffirm that human dimensions, specifically our awareness and decision-making behavior, are powerful explanatory factors of increasing disaster losses. Disaster mitigation through addressing human, social, and physical vulnerability is one of the best means for contributing to ‘climate change adaptation plans’, and sustainable development goals. Recent lessons from various countries have depicted that the formulation of mitigation strategies cannot be exclusively top-down as it requires social, political, and cultural acceptance and sense of ownership. An interactive, participatory process, involving local communities, produces best expected outcomes concerning mitigation, preparedness, and recovery. An emerging consensus is that there is a need to move towards the ‘mission’ of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction which aims at building disaster resilient communities by promoting increased awareness of the importance of disaster reduction as an integral component of sustainable development, with the goal of reducing human, social, economic and environmental losses due to natural hazards and related technological and environmental disasters. Sharing of best practices and lessons globally is certain to produce more efficiency and understanding in policy and decision making.