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1.
The winter flounder is a coastal flatfish with spawning populations associated with specific estuaries or coastal areas. Because of its stock structure, this species is susceptible to localized impacts, including power plant entrainment of larvae. Winter flounder rank second in fish larvae entrained at the Millstone Nuclear Power Station (MNPS), located on Long Island Sound in Waterford, CT, USA. Because of its importance to the state’s fisheries, the population spawning in the nearby Niantic River was selected for impact assessment studies in the early 1970s. Northeast Utilities has consistently monitored annual abundance of adult spawners, characterizing relative abundance by trawl catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) and absolute abundance using mark and recapture data with the Jolly model for demographically open populations. Trends in these two independent but highly correlated indices provide short-term assessments of winter flounder abundance. Abundance of winter flounder peaked in the early 1980s, but as fishing mortality increased to high levels in the late 1980s, their numbers declined thereafter and presently are very low. Information on sex ratio, length-frequency distribution, and spawning condition allow for calculation of annual egg production using a length-fecundity relationship. This forms the basis for estimating production loss due to larval entrainment, which is used as input to a long-term assessment model of power plant impact, discussed in an accompanying paper (Lorda et al., 2000: Lorda, E., Danila, D.J., Miller, J.D., 2000. Application of a population dynamics model to the probabilistic assessment of CWIS effects of Millstone Nuclear Power Station (Waterford, CT) on a nearby winter flounder spawning stock. Environmental Science & Policy 3, S471–S481).  相似文献   

2.
Section 316(b) of the Clean Water Act has required that “best technology available” (BTA) be used to minimize adverse environmental impacts resulting from operation of the cooling water intake structure (CWIS). The primary effects of CWIS operations are the entrainment of small aquatic organisms through the cooling water system and the impingement of larger life stages on traveling water screens. Extensive research has been conducted since the early 1970s in attempts to develop technologies that will minimize entrainment and impingement. As a result, a suite of technologies is available that can be considered for application as the BTA at the CWIS. Available technologies include fish collection systems, fish diversion systems, physical barriers and behavioral barriers. The ability of a given technology to meet BTA requirements is influenced by a wide variety of biological, environmental and engineering factors that must be evaluated on a site-specific basis. The status of systems and devices in each category of fish protection alternatives is presented.  相似文献   

3.
东海区带鱼伏季休渔效果及其资源的合理利用   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
根据2002-2003年东海区带鱼年龄鉴定资料,并引用以往的带鱼渔业生物学研究结果,作为估算带鱼死亡系数和建立动态综合模型所需的有关参数值估算的依据,从而运用Ricker动态综合模型分析了在现行渔业条件下东海区带鱼伏季休渔效果和带鱼资源利用状况以及变更渔业利用情况对带鱼渔业所产生的影响。结果表明:在现行渔业下(tc=0.5a,F=2.61/a),东海区实施3个月的伏季休渔制度能使年平均资源量增加87%,年产量增加29%,渔获平均体重增加42%;带鱼资源的利用虽处于捕捞过度状态之中,但尚能承受较大的捕捞压力,资源结构利用不合理之处是捕捞大量的幼鱼群体,渔获个体依然过小,渔获平均体重仅为75g/ind.;单位补充量渔获量(Y/R)随tc变化的影响大于随F的变化,建议在维持现有伏季休渔制度下,应逐渐降低捕捞强度,并以提高起捕规格放大网目尺寸作为今后一个时期首选的渔业管理目标,应是较为现实的资源合理利用措施。  相似文献   

4.
Choosing the best 316(b) mitigation option is a daunting task. Decision analysis (DA) provides an objective framework that can be used to choose among several mitigation strategies where there are multiple objectives and numerous uncertainties. This paper has two objectives: (1) to illustrate the use of the DA framework for making a 316(b) decision (using the Chalk Point Power Station as a case study); and (2) to show that DA is also useful for quantifying the benefits of a previous decision. The Chalk Point case, resolved in 1990, centered around the mitigation of adverse environmental impacts of a cooling water intake structure (CWIS) as a result of fish and blue crab losses associated with impingement and entrainment. Barrier nets and fishery enhancement programs were used to mitigate the losses. We compare the costs and benefits of the mitigation options actually employed to those of other options. The costs and benefits were estimated numerically using standard DA methods. Valuations and probabilities were derived largely by professional judgment based upon the original Chalk Point 316(b) studies and ongoing monitoring. DA indicated that the optimal strategy and expected utility were functions of the weighting of environmental benefits relative to cost.  相似文献   

5.
A numerical model for simulating the population dynamics of Datura ferox L. (chamico, chinese thronapple) has been built based on previously reported data. In the model, a soybean field is divided into 0.7×0.7-m conceptual modules. A seed production sub-model simulates the annual seed output of each module, and a seed dispersal sub-model simulates the distribution of these propagules within the field in accordance to a specified dispersal pattern. Different model scenarios were generated by varying the proportion of seeds lost from the soil bank, the annual recruitment, the seedling mortality and the proportion of seeds exported from the field during crop harvest. The results obtained by simulation suggest that (1) seed dispersal due to crop harvesting tends to produce an exponential growth of weed seed production, (2) limited or no success could be attained in the control of D. ferox using procedures that kill the seedlings efficiently if combine harvesters are not adjusted so as to maximize the proportion of weed seeds that are exported from the field and (3) if cleaning debris continues to be returned to the ground during crop harvesting, the improvement in the efficiency of the grain/weed separating mechanisms does not provide an effective long-term strategy to avoid grain contamination problems.  相似文献   

6.
We examined the potential impacts of future climate change on the distribution and production of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) on the northeastern USA’s continental shelf. We began by examining the response of cod to bottom water temperature changes observed over the past four decades using fishery-independent resource survey data. After accounting for the overall decline in cod during this period, we show that the probability of catching cod at specified locations decreased markedly with increasing bottom temperature. Our analysis of future changes in water temperature was based on output from three coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models under high and low CO2 emissions. An increase of <1.5°C is predicted for all sectors under the low emission scenario in spring and autumn by the end of this century. Under the high emission scenario, temperature increases range from ~2°C in the north to >3.5°C in the Mid-Atlantic Bight. Under these conditions, cod appear vulnerable to a loss of thermal habitat on Georges Bank, with a substantial loss of thermal habitat farther south. We also examined temperature effects on cod recruitment and growth in one stock area, the Gulf of Maine, to explore potential implications for yield and resilience to fishing. Cod survival during the early life stages declined with increasing water temperatures, offsetting potential increases in growth with warmer temperatures and resulting in a predicted loss in yield and increased vulnerability to high fishing mortality rates. Substantial differential impacts under the low versus high emission scenarios are evident for cod off the northeastern USA.  相似文献   

7.
Bluegill sunfish, Lepomis macrochirus, in part of the Hyco Reservoir (North Carolina) were decimated by toxicological and developmental effects of selenium leached from coal ash settling ponds during 1970–1980. Bluegill are especially sensitive to elevated concentrations of the heavy metal, and near-complete recruitment failure of zero-year olds was observed. To predict the potential recovery after cessation of heavy metal contamination, a demographic model was created for the bluegill population based on data collected from ongoing biological monitoring at the lake. The model included density dependence and used Monte Carlo methods to analyze the effects of natural environmental variability. The life history of the species suggests that once selenium poisoning stopped, the population could recover to pre-impact abundances within 2 years, although the increased abundance would be unevenly distributed among age groups. However, following this increase in abundance, we predicted a population crash due to the time-delayed effects of selenium on the population resulting from the strong nonlinearity of density dependence in this species. The sharp increase in population size itself precipitates the crash which, if not forecast in advance, could cause considerable concern among managers, regulators and the interested public. This example shows that it can be important to predict ecological consequences to understand the nature and duration of biological recovery of toxicological insults. Without the understanding provided by the ecological analysis, the population decline would probably be completely misinterpreted as the failure of the mitigation program.  相似文献   

8.
A team of biologists, including representatives from the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and state fishery resource agencies in the Tennessee River Valley, developed an index to quantify sport fishing quality for individual sport fish species. The objective of the Sport Fishing Index (SFI) is to provide the fishing public with information that will assist them in selecting locations that have the best potential for a successful fishing experience for the species they prefer. Additionally, the index provides biologists with a reference point measure of the quality of that fishery. Comparison of population sampling parameters and creel results for a particular sport fish species with expectations of these parameters from a high quality fishery (reference conditions) allows determination of fishing quality. To date, indices developed include largemouth, smallmouth, and spotted bass; crappies (black and white combined); walleye; sauger; and channel catfish. Each SFI relies on measurements of quantity and quality aspects of angler success and fish population characteristics. Comparison of index results among reservoirs and between years from the Tennessee and Cumberland River reservoirs from 1996 to 1998 indicated that differences in fishing quality for a particular species were measurable.  相似文献   

9.
亚洲大陆2000~2002年春季大气沙尘时空特征的数值模拟   总被引:14,自引:0,他引:14  
将矿物沙尘释放与沉降模式和全球大气化学传输模式相耦合,建立了一个能够完整描述沙尘的扬起、输送和沉降动态过程的模式系统,并利用实时气象资料强迫该模式,对2000、2001和2002年春季(3~5月)亚洲大气沙尘时空特征进行了数值模拟研究.结果表明,模拟的3年春季平均大气柱沙尘浓度分布与地面观测的3年春季平均沙尘暴频率分布范围基本吻合,模拟的沙尘气溶胶光学厚度与卫星观测的气溶胶指数具有显著的相关性,验证了该模式对亚洲沙尘的扬起、传输和沉降过程及大气沙尘载荷时空特征有较好的模拟能力,并基于模拟的沙尘释放通量与沙尘气溶胶光学厚度的相关分析,探讨了亚洲沙尘可能的传输路径.  相似文献   

10.
Marine protected areas (MPAs) are attaining increasing importance in the management of marine ecosystems. They are effective for conservation in tropical and subtropical areas (mainly coral and rocky reefs), but it is debated whether they are useful in the management of migratory fish stocks in open temperate regions. World War II created a large marine area within which commercial fishing was prevented for 6 years. Here we analyse scientific trawl data for three important North Sea gadoids, collected between 1928 and 1958. Using statistical models to summarise the data, we demonstrate the potential of MPAs for expediting the recovery of over-exploited fisheries in open temperate regions. Our age-structured data and population models suggest that wild fish stocks will respond rapidly and positively to reductions in harvesting rates and that the numbers of older fish in a population will react before, and in much greater proportion, than their younger counterparts in a kind of Mexican wave. Our analyses demonstrate both the overall increase in survival due to the lack of harvesting in the War and the form of the age-dependent wave in numbers. We conclude that large closed areas can be very useful in the conservation of migratory species from temperate areas and that older fish benefit fastest and in greater proportion. Importantly, any rise in spawning stock biomass may also not immediately result in better recruitment, which can respond more slowly and hence take longer to contribute to higher future harvestable biomass levels.  相似文献   

11.
The forest sector in the Philippines has the potential to be amajor sink for carbon (C). The present study was conducted to evaluatepotential forestry mitigation options in the Philippines using the Comprehensive Mitigation Assessment Process (COMAP)model. The baseline scenario (BAU) assumes that current trends continue upto the year 2030 (`business-as-usual'). Two mitigation scenarios wereevaluated: high scenario (HS) and low scenario (LS). The former ispatterned largely from the government's forest master plan while thelatter assumes a 50% lower success rate of the master plan.The results of the analyses show that by 2030, the total C stock of thePhilippine forest sector in the baseline scenario decreases to 814× 106 Mg C,down by 37% compared to the 1990 level. The C stocks of the HS andLS mitigation scenarios were 22% and 18% higher than the BAU,respectively. Of the mitigation options assessed, long rotation plantationsand forest protection activities produce the greatest C gain (199 and 104× 106 Mg, respectively under HS). The not present value (NPV)of benefits is highest in the bioenergyoption with $24.48 per Mg C (excluding opportunity costs) at a realdiscount rate of 12%. However, the investment and life cycle costs arealso highest using bioenergy.The study also estimated potential investments needed under the mitigationscenarios. The investment requirement for the LS amounts to $263× 106 while for the HS it is $748 × 106. Finally, policy issues anddecisions that may be useful for the Philippines to evaluate LULUCFmitigation options under the UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol, are identified anddiscussed.  相似文献   

12.
Quad Cities Station is a 1630 MWe dual reactor facility located on the Upper Mississippi River approximately 30 miles north of Davenport, Iowa and Rock Island, Illinois. As designed, the Station utilizes river water at the rate of 2270 cfs in an open-cycle mode of operation. From the 316(b) perspective, numerous agencies and intervenors expressed major concern regarding the potential adverse impacts of open-cycle entrainment and impingement effects on the River’s highly valued and diverse fishery. As a result, the fishery has been monitored continuously since 1971 through field surveys directed at measurements of community composition and relative abundance, as well as fish impingement surveys of the Station’s intake. From 1972 to 1983 the Station operated in a closed-cycle or partial closed-cycle mode.Regulatory relief and intervenor approval for open-cycle operation were not granted until 1984, following several years of intensive studies directed at entrainment/impingement and methods to reduce impingement. Beginning in 1978, the freshwater drum was selected as the indicator species most likely to manifest changes in population characteristics potentially resulting from open-cycle operation. Population levels (numbers and biomass), growth, fecundity, sex ratios and survival were all monitored to determine if compensatory responses occurred within the population following increases in impingement under open-cycle operation. Included in the agreement that allowed the return to open-cycle operation was a commitment to construct and operate a fish production facility to mitigate for potential impacts.After 14 years of monitoring under open-cycle operation, there have been no measurable changes in the local fishery and, specifically, none within the freshwater drum population. Naturally occurring environmental conditions have more profound influences on this dynamic and resilient fishery than operation of a large generation facility. Station operation is relatively constant from year to year and impingement monitoring may actually be the most accurate monitoring activity. Fluctuations in annual impingement projections are reflections of conditions within the river and the fishery’s response to them. Increases or decreases in fish numbers impinged at the Station in any given year are primarily due to fluctuations in the fishery and the effects of existing environmental variables and not to Station operation. The fishery fluctuations are reflections of conditions within the river and the fishery’s response to them.  相似文献   

13.
为了探究三氯卡班(TCC)对脊椎生物神经行为的干扰及机制, 以脊椎模式生物斑马鱼为研究对象, 分别评判了TCC亚致死剂量急性暴露对幼鱼的神经发育毒性及慢性暴露对成鱼神经行为的影响.结果表明: TCC亚致死剂量急性暴露造成斑马鱼胚胎及幼鱼自主运动活力减少, 对声光刺激的敏感程度下降.吖啶橙凋亡染色表明, TCC诱导幼鱼头肾、脑部和眼睛等多部位发生细胞过度凋亡.通过扫描电镜观察, 侧线神经丘形态畸形, 发育受到抑制, 毛细胞团数量减少且排列紊乱.成鱼行为学试验结果显示, TCC长期暴露的成鱼过度焦虑及恐慌, 避险和警惕能力下降, 并表现出自闭, 不愿社交, 显著影响斑马鱼的记忆力、学习能力和辨别认知功能.  相似文献   

14.
Routine assessments of sport fish populations are necessary for managers to determine whether populations are meeting objectives. An effective assessment technique should entail rating parameters that are measurements of, or are influenced by the three rate functions of recruitment, growth, and mortality. It will enable managers to determine which rate functions may be preventing a population from achieving stated objectives and help them determine if additional management or research efforts are needed. The first requirement of an effective assessment technique is a standard sampling method that captures all sizes of fish that are present in the population. The sampling method should detect changes in population density and size structure, which will then be reflected in sample length frequencies. Other important criteria are the selection of appropriate parameters from the sample data and the setting of objectives for those parameters. An ideal assessment should include parameters that depict recruitment levels, adult density, growth rate, age structure, and size structure. The parameter value should be easy to calculate from sample data. Use of an assessment for white crappies in Missouri’s large reservoirs showed that growth was generally good, but mortality was high. Subsequent research indicated that angler exploitation was the cause of the high mortality, which led to the successful implementation of restrictive harvest regulations.  相似文献   

15.
Managing forests to increase carbon sequestration or reduce carbon emissions and using wood products and bioenergy to store carbon and substitute for other emission-intensive products and fossil fuel energy have been considered effective ways to tackle climate change in many countries and regions. The objective of this study is to examine the climate change mitigation potential of the forest sector by developing and assessing potential mitigation strategies and portfolios with various goals in British Columbia (BC), Canada. From a systems perspective, mitigation potentials of five individual strategies and their combinations were examined with regionally differentiated implementations of changes. We also calculated cost curves for the strategies and explored socio-economic impacts using an input-output model. Our results showed a wide range of mitigation potentials and that both the magnitude and the timing of mitigation varied across strategies. The greatest mitigation potential was achieved by improving the harvest utilization, shifting the commodity mix to longer-lived wood products, and using harvest residues for bioenergy. The highest cumulative mitigation of 421 MtCO2e for BC was estimated when employing the strategy portfolio that maximized domestic mitigation during 2017–2050, and this would contribute 35% of BC’s greenhouse gas emission reduction target by 2050 at less than $100/tCO2e and provide additional socio-economic benefits. This case study demonstrated the application of an integrated systems approach that tracks carbon stock changes and emissions in forest ecosystems, harvested wood products (HWPs), and the avoidance of emissions through the use of HWPs and is therefore applicable to other countries and regions.  相似文献   

16.
森林植被变化对流域水文影响的争论   总被引:38,自引:2,他引:38  
针对“森林能否增雨、森林能否减少年径流量、调节枯水径流以及能否削减洪峰”等问题,综述了各种观点,分析了出现分歧的原因。作者认为森林对降水量的影响不大,森林植被的存在一般减少年径流量,而对调节枯水径流以及削减洪峰等的作用则因地带、因流域尺度而异。研究方法的局限性、研究对象的复杂性以及区域差异和尺度的影响,是导致争论的主要原因。正确评价森林的水文效应,应该注意地带性差异、尺度的影响以及不同森林的类型等。  相似文献   

17.
北方干旱化和土地利用变化对泾河流域径流的影响   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
论文以在黄土高原上发育,流经中国北方干旱、半干旱地区的黄河二级支流--泾河为研究对象,基于20世纪八九十年代的土地利用影像资料,以及泾河流域1970~2002年的气候、水文资料,采用美国农业部开发的分布式流域水文模型SWAT,分析了20世纪80~90年代泾河流域的降雨量和径流量的变化。从80到90年代,流域年降雨量呈逐年递减趋势,80年代多年平均月降雨量明显大于90年代多年平均月降雨量,尤其在7~9月,平均降雨量明显减少。受气候干旱化和土地利用/覆被变化的共同作用,80~90年代,流域多年平均年径流减少了8.92m3s-1。为了区分气候变化和土地利用变化对流域径流的影响,采取分别固定气候因子与土地利用/覆被变化因子的方法,将模拟情景输入模型,定量区分气候和土地利用/覆被变化对流域径流的影响方式和程度。结果表明,气候干旱化趋势使流域多年平均年径流减少28.08m3s-1,为气候、土地利用/覆被变化共同影响径流变化量的314.80%;土地利用/覆被变化使流域多年平均年径流增加26.57m3s-1,为气候、土地利用/覆被变化共同影响径流变化量的297.87%。  相似文献   

18.
A dynamic growth model (CO2FIX) was used for estimating the carbon sequestration potential of sal (Shorea Robusta Gaertn. f.), Eucalyptus (Eucalyptus Tereticornis Sm.), poplar (Populus Deltoides Marsh), and teak (Tectona Grandis Linn. f.) forests in India. The results indicate that long-term total carbon storage ranges from 101 to 156 Mg C?ha?1, with the largest carbon stock in the living biomass of long rotation sal forests (82 Mg C?ha?1). The net annual carbon sequestration rates were achieved for fast growing short rotation poplar (8 Mg C?ha?1?yr?1) and Eucalyptus (6 Mg C?ha?1?yr?1) plantations followed by moderate growing teak forests (2 Mg C?ha?1?yr?1) and slow growing long rotation sal forests (1 Mg C?ha?1?yr?1). Due to fast growth rate and adaptability to a range of environments, short rotation plantations, in addition to carbon storage rapidly produce biomass for energy and contribute to reduced greenhouse gas emissions. We also used the model to evaluate the effect of changing rotation length and thinning regime on carbon stocks of forest ecosystem (trees?+?soil) and wood products, respectively for sal and teak forests. The carbon stock in soil and products was less sensitive than carbon stock of trees to the change in rotation length. Extending rotation length from the recommended 120 to 150 years increased the average carbon stock of forest ecosystem (trees?+?soil) by 12%. The net primary productivity was highest (3.7 Mg ha?1?yr?1) when a 60-year rotation length was applied but decreased with increasing rotation length (e.g., 1.7 Mg ha?1?yr?1) at 150 years. Goal of maximum carbon storage and production of more valuable saw logs can be achieved from longer rotation lengths. ‘No thinning’ has the largest biomass, but from an economical perspective, there will be no wood available from thinning operations to replace fossil fuel for bioenergy and to the pulp industry and such patches have high risks of forest fires, insects etc. Extended rotation lengths and reduced thinning intensity could enhance the long-term capacity of forest ecosystems to sequester carbon. While accounting for effects of climate change, a combination of bioenergy and carbon sequestration will be best to mitigation of CO2 emission in the long term.  相似文献   

19.
Carbon forestry mitigation potential estimates at the global-level are limited by the absence or simplicity of national-level estimates, and similarly national-level estimates are limited by absence of regional-level estimates. The present study aims to estimate the mitigation potential for a large diverse country such as India, based on the GTAP global land classification system of agro-ecological zones (AEZs), as well the Indian AEZ system. The study also estimates the implications of carbon price incentive (US$50 and $100) on mitigation potential in the short-, medium- and long-term, since afforestation and reforestation (A & R) is constrained by lack of investment and financial incentives. The mitigation potential for short and long rotation plantations and natural regeneration was estimated using the GCOMAP global forest model for two land area scenarios. One scenario included only wastelands (29 Mha), and the second enhanced area scenario, included wastelands plus long fallow and marginal croplands (54 Mha). Under the $100 carbon price case, significant additional area (3.6 Mha under the wasteland scenario and 6.4 Mha under the enhanced area scenario) and carbon mitigation is gained in the short-term (2025) compared to the baseline when using the GTAP land classification system. The area brought under A & R increases by 85–100% for the $100 carbon price compared to $50 carbon price in the short-term, indicating the effectiveness of higher carbon price incentives, especially in the short-term. A comparison of estimates of mitigation potential using GTAP and Indian AEZ land classification systems showed that in the short-term, 35% additional C-stock gain is achieved in the $100 carbon price case in the enhanced area scenario of the Indian AEZ system. This difference highlights the role of the land classification system adopted in estimation of aggregate mitigation potential estimates, particularly in the short-term. Uncertainty involved in the estimates of national-level mitigation potential needs to be reduced, by generating reliable estimates of carbon stock gain and losses, and cost and benefit data, for land use sector mitigation options at a scale disaggregated enough to be relevant for national mitigation planning.  相似文献   

20.
The small scale forestry carbon project in Haryana, India has been registered as a Clean Development Project (CDM) activity and is the first such projects from India. Developed under the Kyoto Protocol of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the projects aims at restoring heavily degraded sandune affected private lands and contribute to climate change mitigation. The project is expected to sequester 234,584 tons of carbon dioxide (tCO2) in 20 years project cycle with an average annual sequestration of 11,729 (tCO2) per year. The project is expected to have a total carbon stock of 385,253.1 ton Carbon (tC) in the project life span of 20 years as against 7,920.6 (tC) in the baseline scenario. The carbon credits earned from the project is supposed to provide additional incentives to the smallholders who have formed a cooperative society for this purpose. This paper addresses the issues and challenges in developing the project activity and also discusses the lessons learned in the process. The project is supposed to help in poverty alleviation and has become a success story for rehabilitating degraded lands in semi arid regions of India through plantation forestry.  相似文献   

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