灰色预测模型GM（1,1）在地面水质预测中的应用

本文将地面水质视作灰色系统,对某河段的化学耗氧量(COD),生化耗氧量(BOD_5)用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)进行建模、预测。最大误5.2％,平均误差小于0.2％,模型精度高。建模需要的数据较少,对数据的分布无特殊要求,方法和计算简单,实用价值大,是地面水质预测预报的一种有效方法。     

ESTIMATING RUNOFF VOLUMES FROM URBAN AREAS1

ABSTRACT: Estimations of runoff volumes from urban areas can be made by the equation Q = a A σ(P_e– b), where Q is the runoff volume, a is the part of the total area A Contributing to runoff, P_e is the rainfall amount for a single event, and b is the initial rainfall losses. For the evaluation of a and b, rainfall/runoff measurements were made in five areas of sizes between 0.035 km² and 1.450 km². By linear regression analysis of rainfall volumes versus runoff volumes, the initial rainfall losses were found to vary from 0.38 mm to 0.70 mm for the different areas. The parts of the areas contributing to runoff were found to be proportional to the impermeable parts of the mas. The equation is applicable in urban areas with well defined paved surfaces and roofs and with a negligible amount of runoff from permeable areas.     

Rainfall Runoff Relationships for a Cloud Forest Watershed in Central America: Implications for Water Resource Engineering1

Caballero, Luis A., Alon Rimmer, Zachary M. Easton, and Tammo S. Steenhuis, 2012. Rainfall Runoff Relationships for a Cloud Forest Watershed in Central America: Implications for Water Resource Engineering. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(5): 1022‐1031. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00668.x Abstract: Understanding the basic relationships between rainfall and runoff is vital for effective management and utilization of scarce water resources. Especially, this is important in Central America with widespread potable water shortage during the dry months of the monsoon. Potential good water sources are cloud forests, but little information concerning its potential is available to water supply engineers. Our objective is to define rainfall‐runoff‐base flow relationships for a cloud forest catchment. Flumes were installed for measuring river flow in four subwatersheds in La Tigra National Park, Honduras. One of the four watersheds was a 636‐ha subwatershed (WS1) with 60% cloud forest coverage. Precipitation averaged 1,130 mm/yr over the entire basin. About half of the total rainfall became runoff for the cloud forest watershed whereas, for the adjacent undisturbed forested watershed, the total discharge was <20% of the amount of precipitation. Infiltration rates were generally greater than rainfall rates. Therefore, most rainfall infiltrated into the soil, especially in the upper, steep, and well‐drained portions of the watershed. Direct runoff was generated from saturated areas near the river and exposed bedrock. This research provides compelling evidence that base flow is the primary contributor to streamflow during both wet and dry seasons in cloud forest catchments. Protecting these flow processes over time is critical for the sustained provision of potable water.     

FLOOD-RUNOFF FORECASTING WITH HEC1F1

HEC1F is a computer program for making short- to medium-term forecasts of uncontrolled flood runoff. The program employs unit hydrographs and hydrologic routing to simulate runoff from a subdivided basin. Estimates of future rainfall can be accommodated. Runoff parameters for gaged headwater subbasins can be estimated (optimized) in real time. Blending of calculated with observed hydrographs can be performed. HEC1F is a component of an on-line software system that includes capability for data acquisition and processing, precipitation analysis, streamflow forecasting, reservoir system analysis, and graphical display of data and simulation results. The conceptual framework for HEC1F is described, and application of the program is illustrated.     

灰色系统方法在城市生活垃圾量预测中的应用

利用灰色关联分析方法分析了影响城市生活垃圾量的因素，建立了生活垃圾量的ＧＭ（１，１）预测模型，预测了未来的城市生活垃圾量。该法具有较高的精度，简便，可行。     

A QUASI-LINEAR SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED CELL MODEL FOR THE SURFACE RUNOFF SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: The paper presents a spatially distributed model consisting of cells that are interconnected in a pattern similar to the major drainage network of the watershed. Each cell receives as input the rainfall excess for the area represented by the cell as well as inflows from cells located upstream. Outflow from the cell is derived by routing the total input through the cell assuming it to be a linear reservoir during the storm. The time constant of the cells is however allowed to vary from storm to storm so that the model may be described as a quasi-linear model. The model was tested with rainfall excess and direct surface runoff data available for a medium size watershed with satisfactory results. The time constant was found to be related to the rainfall excess of the storms studied, its value decreasing with the increase in the total rainfall excess.     

深圳下坪填埋场渗滤液产生量预测研究

对垃圾填埋渗滤液产生量预测模型进行了比较，选择经验－合理式模型作为填埋场渗滤液产生量的预测模型。综合下坪垃圾填埋场不同汇水面积、降雨量和渗滤液量的现场实测数据，采用线性回归确定了模型参数，通过模型预测渗滤液产生量与现场实测渗滤液产生量的对比分析了本模型的精度和可靠性，从而为填埋场渗滤液产生量的预测及收集处理系统的设计、管理提供科学依据。     

CALIBRATING AND VERIFYING THE SSARR MODEL -MISSOURI RIVER WATERSHEDS STUDY1

The Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation (SSARR) model was calibrated and verified on the Madison and Gallatin watersheds in the upper Missouri River drainage. The study was performed to determine if the SSARR model could simulate snowmelt-runoff volumes to effect better operation of six multipurpose reservoirs on the Missouri River. Physical watershed characteristics and parameter sensitivity are incorporated into a procedure which expedites model calibration. Criteria are established to facilitate parameter development and to objectively evaluate calibration and verification results. A ratio of simulated to observed snowmelt-runoff volumes of the Madison River averaged 1.00 and 1.02 for calibration (N = 8 years) and verification (N = 6 years) with corresponding standard deviations of 0.08 and 0.13. Gallatin volume ratios averaged 0.99 and 0.95 for calibration (N = 7 years) and verification (N = 5 years) with respective standard deviations of 0.08 and 0.28.     

基于灰色预测法的空气污染来源及控制对策分析

以2005年~2012年三明市公布的环境空气质量指数为基础,用2005年~2010年的环境空气质量指数数据以改进的灰色预测方法来构建模型。通过对预测值与实际值出现较大差异的地方进行比较和分析,表明大型城建项目、机动车辆爆炸性增长对三明市区的环境空气质量有较大影响。因此针对相应的污染机制和源头提出整治措施,为三明市下一步的环境治理规划的制定提供指导和依据。     

武汉市三废产生量的相关分析及预测

在分析1991-2002武汉市三废产生量的时间变化特征基础上,运用灰色关联度方法,定量分析了武汉市城市三废产生量的主要因子。利用灰色系统理论建立了城市三废产生量的GM（1,1）模型,模型经精度检验合格,预测了2010年武汉市三废产生量,预测结果为：武汉市三废产生量到2010年将达到432．63百万吨、3998．08亿标准立方米和678．10万吨。     

SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SNOWMELT RUNOFF USING ARMAX MODELS1

ABSTRACT: Time series models of the ARMAX class were investigated for use in forecasting daily riverflow resulting from combined snowmelt/rainfall. The Snowmelt Runoff Model (Martinec-Rango Model) is shown to have a form similar to the ARMAX model. The advantage of the ARMAX approach is that analytical model identification and parameter estimation techniques are available. In addition, previous forecast errors can be included to improve forecasts and confidence limits can be estimated for the forecasts. Diagnostic checks are available to determine if the model is performing properly. Finally, Kalman filtering can be used to allow the model parameters to vary continuously to reflect changing basin runoff conditions. The above advantages result in improved flow forecasts with fewer model parameters.     

A PARAMETRIC MODEL CALIBRATED WITH A PHYSICALLY BASED MODEL FOR RUNOFF PREDICTION FROM UNGAGED STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: Recent developments in the numerical solution of the governing partial differential equations for overland and channel flow should make possible physically based models which predict runoff from ungaged streams. However, these models, which represent the watershed by sets of intersecting planes, are complex and require much computer time. Parametric models exist that have the advantage of being relatively simple, and once calibrated are inexpensive to use and require limited data input. In this study, a procedure was developed for calibrating a parametric model against a physically based model, utilizing base areas of one acre and one square mile, with the expectation that base areas can be combined to model real watersheds. Simulation experiments with the physically based model showed that, for the one-acre base area, the dominant parameter (cell storage ratio, K) related to the slope and friction of the planes, whereas for one square-mile areas, the dominant parameters (K plus a lag factor, L) relate to channel properties. These parameters decreased exponentially as rainfall intensity increased.     

FLOOD PLAIN MODELING1

Computer simulation of river basin hydrology has rapidly progressed from an interesting academic exercise to a practical engineering procedure of increasing utility. Mathematical models of the many interrelated processes which occur in a basin have been developed along with efficient numerical procedures for their solution. The present paper is concerned with a particular model which has been used to describe the transformation of a temporally and spatially varying rainfall into a time history of stage and discharge on a flood plain. Although developed principally as a model of the physical processes involved, it is envisioned that the model can serve as one component of an information system for flood plain planning and management. The model consists of the following elements: (i) a rainfall simulation which generates stochastic inputs to the model according to specified rainfall statistics, (ii) a catchment-runoff model which converts the rainfall to surface runoff, (iii) a flood stage model which converts the surface runoff to time histories of flood stage and discharge. The model has been used to investigate the effect of various structural flood control measures in a basin and, in particular, to establish frequency-stage information for each of these. Of particular interest in development of the model have been recurring and partially unanswered questions relative to the proper balance among availability of data for use in the model, data requirements of the model and the objectives of the outputs produced by the model.