History and Development of the NRCS Lag Time Equation1

Abstract: Many of the hydrologic methods that are used in engineering practice today resulted from the Spring Flood of 1936, which blanketed the Northeastern portion of the United States. Because of the flood damage that was caused by this rainfall‐snowmelt event, many federal agencies including the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers and the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) implemented the hydrologic theories that were available in the literature at this time and developed hydrologic procedures for design flow estimation. Sherman had recently published his unit hydrograph theory in 1932, and later in 1938 Snyder, who had been charged by the Water Resource Council to develop a synthetic unit hydrograph, published his famous paper. The SCS unit hydrograph theory was developed by Victor Mockus in the late 1950s. Most if not all of the theories at that time reported the rainfall‐runoff process for floods as a surface phenomenon, and as such those theories all required some type of a timing parameter to estimate watershed response time. This article documents the development of the SCS lag equation.     

DETERMINING SIGNIFICANCE AND PRECISION OF ESTIMATED PARAMETERS FOR RUNOFF FROM SEMIARID WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT Significant parameters for predicting thunderstorm runoff from small semiarid watersheds are determined using data from the Walnut Gulch watershed in southern Arizona. Based on these data, thunderstorm rainfall is dominant over watershed parameters for predicting runoff from multiple linear regression equations. In some cases antecedent moisture added significantly to the models. A technique is developed for estimating precision of predicted values from multiple linear regression equations. The technique involves matrix methods in estimating the variance of mean predicted values from a regression equation. The estimated variance of the mean predicted value is then used to estimate the variance of an individual predicted value. A computer program is developed to implement these matrix methods and to form confidence limits on predicted values based on both a normality assumption and the Chebyshev inequality.     

DUAL URBAN AND RURAL HYDROGRAPH SIGNALS IN THREE SMALL WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Many studies can be found in the literature pertaining to the effects of urbanization on surface runoff in small watersheds and the hydrologic response of undeveloped watersheds. However, an extensive literature review yielded few published studies that illustrate differing hydrologic responses from multiple source areas within a watershed. The concepts discussed here are not new, but the methods used provide a unique, basic procedure for investigating stormwater hydrology in topographically diverse basins. Six storm hydrographs from three small central Pennsylvania watersheds were analyzed for this paper; five are presented. Two important conclusions are deduced from this investigation. First, in all cases we found two distinct peaks in stream discharge, each representing different contributing areas to direct discharge with greatly differing curve numbers and lags representative of urban and rural source regions. Second, the direct discharge represents only a small fraction of the total drainage area with the urban peak becoming increasingly important with respect to the rural peak with the amount of urbanization and as the magnitude of the rain event decreases.     

VALIDATION OF AGNPS FOR SMALL WATERSHEDS USING AN INTEGRATED AGNPS/GIS SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: The AGNPS (AGricultural NonPoint Source) model was evaluated for predicting runoff and sediment delivery from small watersheds of mild topography. Fifty sediment yield events were monitored from two watersheds and five nested subwater-sheds in East Central Illinois throughout the growing season of four years. Half of these events were used to calibrate parameters in the AGNPS model. Average calibrated parameters were used as input for the remaining events to obtain runoff and sediment yield data. These data were used to evaluate the suitability of the AGNPS model for predicting runoff and sediment yield from small, mild-sloped watersheds. An integrated AGNPS/GIS system was used to efficiently create the large number of data input changes necessary to this study. This system is one where the AGNPS model was integrated with the GRASS (Geographic Resources Analysis Support System) GIS (Geographical Information System) to develop a decision support tool to assist with management of runoff and erosion from agricultural watersheds. The integrated system assists with the development of input GIS layers to AGNPS, running the model, and interpretation of the results.     

MODELING THE BUILDUP AND WASHOFF OF POLLUTANTS ON URBAN WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: A model for urban stormwater quality was developed in this study. The basis for the model is the process by which pollutants build up on the watershed surface. For the wet climate of the study site, it was assumed that there exists an interval of time over which the pollutant buildup equals the pollutant washoff (no accumulation of pollutant). The buildup model was represented by a linear function of the antecedent dry time. The buildup function was then linked with a pollutant washoff model represented by a power function of the storm runoff volume. Various time intervals for no net accumulation were tested to calibrate the model. The model was calibrated to observed data for two small urban basins in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, and model results were used to analyze the behavior of phosphorus concentrations in storm runoff from these basins over a long period of time.     

COMPOSITE VS. DISTRIBUTED CURVE NUMBERS: EFFECTS ON ESTIMATES OF STORM RUNOFF DEPTHS1

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Department of Agriculture Curve Number (CN) method is one of the most common and widely used techniques for estimating surface runoff and has been incorporated into a number of popular hydrologic models. The CN method has traditionally been applied using compositing techniques in which the area weighted average of all curve numbers is calculated for a watershed or a small number of sub-watersheds. CN compositing was originally developed as a time saving procedure, reducing the number of runoff calculations required. However, with the proliferation of high speed computers and geographic information systems, it is now feasible to use distributed CNs when applying the CN method. To determine the effect of using composited versus distributed CNs on runoff estimates, two simulations of idealized watersheds were developed to compare runoff depths using composite and distributed CNs. The results of these simulations were compared to the results of similar analyses performed on an urbanizing watershed located in central Indiana and show that runoff depth estimates using distributed CNs are as much as 100 percent higher than when composited CNs are used. Underestimation of runoff due to CN compositing is a result of the curvilinear relationship between CN and runoff depth and is most severe for wide CN ranges, low CN values, and low precipitation depths. For larger design storms, however, the difference in runoff computed using composite and distributed CNs is minimal.     

HYDROLOGIC BUDGET FOR A FRESHWATER MARSH IN FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: Accurate water balance calculations are essential for water resource and environmental management decisions, but many of the terms used in the equation are difficult to measure. In this study, a method for measuring rates of evapotranspiration and net seepage from a freshwater marsh in southwest Florida is described. The results are compared to evaporation pan estimates as well as to calculations that balanced all the terms in the hydrologic budget. The measured rates of evapotranspiration showed a. distinct seasonal trend ranging from an average high of 0.24 in/d during July 1992 to a low of 0.06 in/d in January 1993. Evapotranspiration rates were higher than Class A evaporation pan measurements during July and August, indicating transpiration by plants exceeded evaporation by pans. Net ground water seepage flowed out of the marsh except during periods of high water table conditions. When all terms in the hydrologic budget were evaluated, the equation balanced on a yearly basis with an error of 2 percent, on a seasonal basis with errors less than 7 percent, but on a monthly basis errors were as great as 30 percent. Total annual rainfall on the marsh was 45 percent of the total marsh hydrologic input and was approximately equal to the loss by evapotranspiration of 41 percent.     

SIZING SMALL STORMWATER PUMP STATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Design of a stormwater pump station is a complicated procedure because of the large number of parameters that are involved. Even the most basic pump station serving a small catchment requires a computationally intensive iterative evaluation. However, the design problem consists primarily of finding the combination of temporary storage and pump capacity that accommodates runoff of the selected recurrence interval for the least cost. A procedure is developed for rapidly obtaining the needed relation between storage volume and discharge for small pump stations where a constant outflow can be assumed and the inflow hydro-graph can be represented using the modified rational method with rainfall given by a widely-used intensity-duration equation. Accepting the limitations of the modified rational method and the simplifications applied to pump station operation, the procedure provides an uncomplicated way of rapidly finding the stormwater runoff volume that needs to be temporarily stored for given values of pump discharge and activation water level (or, equivalently, activation storage volume). Ultimate determination of temporary runoff storage will depend on an economic analysis of the trade-off between storage volume and pump capacity.     

IMPACT OF COAL SURFACE MINING ON THREE OHIO WATERSHEDS - SURFACE-WATER HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT: A study was conducted to determine the effects of mining and reclaiming originally undisturbed watersheds on surface-water hydrology in three small experimental watersheds in Ohio. Approximately six years of data were collected at each site, with differing lengths of premining (Phase 1), mining and reclamation (Phase 2), and post-reclamation (Phase 3) periods. Mining and reclamation activities showed no consistent pattern iii base-flow, and caused slightly more frequent higher daily flow volumes. Phase 2 activities can cause reductions in seasonal variation in double mass curves compared with Phase 1. Restoration of seasonal variations was noticeably apparent at one site during Phase 3. The responses of the watersheds to rainfall intensities causing larger peak flow rates generally decreased due to mining and reclamation, but tended to exceed responses observed in Phase 1 during Phase 3. Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) curve numbers increased due to mining and reclamation (Phase 2), ranging from 83 to 91. During Phase 3, curve numbers remained approximately constant from Phase 2, ranging from 87 to 91.     

LAND SURFACE PARAMETERIZATIONS OF GCMs AND MACROSCALE HYDROLOGICAL MODELS1

ABSTRACT: Climatic variation and the possibility of anthropogenically-caused climatic change have emphasized the need for global hydrological cycle models able to simulate the impacts of climate on the atmosphere, continents and oceans. To date, global atmospheric and oceanic models have been developed but, to the best of the author's knowledge, there are no continental hydrological models. Instead, hydrological models continue to develop at the catchment scale and the land phase component of the global hydrologic cycle is modeled as parameterizations within atmospheric models. The author argues that this is not the best solution; that the present land surface components of atmospheric models do not accurately model land phase hydrology and that, instead, atmospheric and oceanic models should be linked to continental-scale hydrological models to form a true model of the global hydrological cycle.     

INTEGRATION OF FOREST ECOSYSTEM AND CLIMATIC MODELS WITH A HYDROLOGIC MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The effects of changes in the landscape and climate over geological time are plain to see in the present hydrological regime. More recent anthropogenic changes may also have effects on our way of life. A prerequisite to predicting such effects is that we understand the interactions between climate, landscape and the hydrological regime. A semi-distributed hydrological model (SLURP) has been developed which can be used to investigate, in a simple way, the links between landscape, climate and hydrology for watersheds of various sizes. As well as using data from the observed climate network, the model has been used with data from atmospheric models to investigate possible changes in hydrology. A critical input to such a model is knowledge of the links between landscape and climate. While direct anthropogenic effects such as changes in forested area may presently be included, the indirect effects of climate on landscape and vice versa are not yet modeled well enough to be explicitly included. The development of models describing climate-landscape relationships such as regeneration, development and breakup, water and carbon fluxes at species, ecosystem and biome level is a necessary step in understanding and predicting the effects of changes in climate on landscape and on water resources. Forest is the predominant land cover in Canada covering 453 Mha and productivity/succession models for major forest types should be included in an integrated climate-landscape-water simulation.     

ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF LONG-TERM STREAM TEMPERATURES ON THE STEAMBOAT CREEK BASIN,OREGON: IMPLICATIONS FOR LAND USE AND FISH HABITAT1

ABSTRACT: Steamboat Creek basin is an important source of timber and provides crucial spawning and rearing habitat for anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). Because stream temperatures are near the upper limit of tolerance for the survival of juvenile steelhead, the possible long-term effect of clear-cut logging on stream temperatures was assessed. Twenty-year (1969–1989) records of summer stream temperature and flow from four tributaries and two reaches of Steamboat Creek and Boulder Creek (a nearby unlogged watershed) were analyzed. Logging records for the Steamboat Creek basin and air temperature records also were used in the analysis. A time-series model of the components of stream temperature (seasonal cycle of solar radiation, air temperature, streamflow, an autoregressive term of order 1, and a linear trend variable) was fitted to the water-temperature data. The linear trend variable was significant in all the fitted models except Bend Creek (a tributary fed by cool ground-water discharge) and Boulder Creek. Because no trends in either climate (i.e., air temperature) or streamflow were found in the data, the trend variable was associated with the pre-1969 loss and subsequent regrowth of riparian vegetation and shading canopies.     

A NEW FLASHINESS INDEX: CHARACTERISTICS AND APPLICATIONS TO MIDWESTERN RIVERS AND STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: The term flashiness reflects the frequency and rapidity of short term changes in streamflow, especially during runoff events. Flashiness is an important component of a stream's hydrologic regime. A variety of land use and land management changes may lead to increased or decreased flashiness, often to the detriment of aquatic life. This paper presents a newly developed flashiness index, which is based on mean daily flows. The index is calculated by dividing the pathlength of flow oscillations for a time interval (i.e., the sum of the absolute values of day‐to‐day changes in mean daily flow) by total discharge during that time interval. This index has low interannual variability, relative to most flow regime indicators, and thus greater power to detect trends. Index values were calculated for 515 Midwestern streams for the 27‐year period from 1975 through 2001. Statistically significant increases were present in 22 percent of the streams, primarily in the eastern portion of the study area, while decreases were present in 9 percent, primarily in the western portion. Index values tend to decrease with increasing watershed area and with increasing unit area ground water inputs. Area compensated index values often shift at ecoregion boundaries. Potential index applications include evaluation of programs to restore more natural flow regimes.     

PREDICTING THE SUMMER TEMPERATURE OF SMALL STREAMS IN SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN1

ABSTRACT: One of the biggest challenges in managing cold water streams in the Midwest is understanding how stream temperature is controlled by the complex interactions among meteorologic processes, channel geometry, and ground water inflow. Inflow of cold ground water, shade provided by riparian vegetation, and channel width are the most important factors controlling summer stream temperatures. A simple screening model was used to quantitatively evaluate the importance of these factors and guide management decisions. The model uses an analytical solution to the heat transport equation to predict steady‐state temperature throughout a stream reach. The model matches field data from four streams in southwestern Wisconsin quite well (typically within 1°C) and helps explain the observed warming and cooling trends along each stream reach. The distribution of ground water inflow throughout a stream reach has an important influence on stream temperature, and springs are especially effective at providing thermal refuge for fish. Although simple, this model provides insight into the importance of ground water and the impact different management strategies, such as planting trees to increase shade, may have on summer stream temperature.     

ESTIMATES OF RUNOFF USING WATER-BALANCE AND ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS1

ABSTRACT: The effects of potential climate change on mean annual runoff in the conterminous United States (U.S.) are examined using a simple water-balance model and output from two atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs). The two GCMs are from the Canadian Centre for Climate Prediction and Analysis (CCC) and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HAD). In general, the CCC GCM climate results in decreases in runoff for the conterminous U.S., and the HAD GCM climate produces increases in runoff. These estimated changes in runoff primarily are the result of estimated changes in precipitation. The changes in mean annual runoff, however, mostly are smaller than the decade-to-decade variability in GCM-based mean annual runoff and errors in GCM-based runoff. The differences in simulated runoff between the two GCMs, together with decade-to-decade variability and errors in GCM-based runoff, cause the estimates of changes in runoff to be uncertain and unreliable.     

AN INTEGRATED ONE‐DIMENSIONAL AND TWO‐DIMENSIONAL URBAN STORMWATER FLOOD SIMULATION MODEL1

ABSTRACT: Flash flooding is the rapid flooding of low lying areas caused by the stormwater of intense rainfall associated with thunderstorms. Flash flooding occurs in many urban areas with relatively flat terrain and can result in severe property damage as well as the loss of lives. In this paper, an integrated one‐dimensional (1‐D) and two‐dimensional (2‐D) hydraulic simulation model has been established to simulate stormwater flooding processes in urban areas. With rainfall input, the model simulates 2‐D overland flow and 1‐D flow in underground stormwater pipes and drainage channels. Drainage channels are treated as special flow paths and arranged along one or more sides of a 2‐D computational grid. By using irregular computation grids, the model simulates unsteady flooding and drying processes over urban areas with complex drainage systems. The model results can provide spatial flood risk information (e.g., water depth, inundation time and flow velocity during flooding). The model was applied to the City of Beaumont, Texas, and validated with the recorded rainfall and runoff data from Tropical Storm Allison with good agreement.     

OPTIMAL LONG-TERM SCHEDULING OF STORMWATER DRAINAGE REHABILITATION1

ABSTRACT: A mathematical model is developed to optimally schedule long-term stormwater infrastructure rehabilitation activities. The model is capable of considering multiple rehabilitation projects and is driven by overall cost eensiderations. Rehabilitation activities are scheduled based on perceived reliabilities and future deterioration expected within the specified planning horizon. Future growth within the stormwater drainage basin is incorporated using chance constraints that limit the likelihood that a stormwater discharge exceeds system conveyance capacity. Model structure and development are discussed, and a hypothetical example using a drainage network is presented.     

IMPACT OF COAL SURFACE MINING AND RECLAMATION ON SURFACE WATER CHEMICAL CONCENTRATIONS AND LOAD RATES IN THREE OHIO WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Information is lacking on the watershed scale effects of mining and reclaiming originally undisturbed watersheds for coal on surface water chemical concentrations and load rates for a variety of constituents. These effects were evaluated on three small, geologically dissimilar watersheds subjected to surface mining in Ohio. Comparisons were made between phases of land disturbances using ratios of average concentrations and load rates: Phase 1 (natural), subphases of Phase 2 (mining and reclamation), and subphases of Phase 3 (partial reclamation and final condition) using 4,485 laboratory analyses of 34 constituents. Average concentration and load rate ratios were categorized into three classes—minor, moderate, and substantial. Mining and reclamation (M/R) affected flow duration curves in different ways‐baseflow changes were variable, but high flows generally increased. The average concentration ratios for all sites were classified as 15 percent “minor,” 36 percent “moderate,” and 49 percent “substantial” (average ratio of 2.4.) Generally load rate ratios increased due to mining and reclamation activities (average ratio of 3.3). Minor, moderate, and substantial impacts were found on average for 7 percent, 23 percent, and 70 percent, respectively, of load rate ratios. The impact of M/R on average load rates was not necessarily the same as on average concentrations due to changed hydrology and can be opposite in effect. The evaluation of the impacts of M/R requires knowledge of changing hydrologic conditions and changing supplies and rates of release of chemicals into streams. Median sediment concentration ratio is an indicator of average constituent load rate ratio of a wide variety of chemical constituents and is useful for development of best management practices to reduce chemical loads. The site at which diversion ditches were not removed during final reclamation sustained large chemical load rates, and removal of diversions at the other mined site reduced load rates. Revegetation of poorly reclaimed areas decreased chemical load rates. Chemical load rates were sensitive to geology, mining, and reclamation methods, diversions, and changing hydrology, concentration flow rate regressions, and watershed areas.     

PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY IN RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING FOR POLDER SYSTEM DESIGN1

ABSTRACT: An approach is developed for incorporating the uncertainty of parameters for estimating runoff in the design of polder systems in ungaged watersheds. Monte Carlo Simulation is used to derive a set of realizations of streamflow hydrographs for a given design rainstorm using the U. S. Soil Conservation Service (SCS) unit hydrograph model. The inverse of the SCS curve number, which is a function of the antecedent runoff condition in the SCS model, is the random input in the Monte Carlo Simulation. Monte Carlo realizations of streamfiow hydrographs are used to simulate the performance of a polder flood protection system. From this simulation the probability of occurrence of flood levels for a particular hydraulic design may be used to evaluate its effectiveness. This approach is demonstrated for the Pluit Polder flood protection system for the City of Jakarta, Indonesia. While the results of the application indicate that uncertainty in the antecedent runoff condition is important, the effects of uncertainty in rainfall data, in additional runoff parameters, such as time to peak, in the hydraulic design, and in the rainfall-runoff model selected should also be considered. Although, the SCS model is limited to agricultural conditions, the approach presented herein may be applied to other flood control systems if appropriate storm runoff models are selected.     

PCN BASED METAL PARTITIONING IN URBAN SNOWMELT,RAINFALL/RUNOFF,AND RIVER FLOW SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: Drawing an analogy between the popular Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS‐CN) method based infiltration and metal sorption processes, a new partitioning curve number (PCN) approach is suggested for partitioning of heavy metals into dissolved and particulate bound forms in urban snowmelt, rainfall/runoff, and river flow environments. The parameters, the potential maximum desorption, ψ, and the PCN analogous to the SCS‐CN parameters S and CN, respectively, are introduced. Under the condition of snowmelt, PCN (or ψ) is found to generally rely on temperature, relative humidity, pH, and chloride content; during a rainstorm, ψ is found to depend on the alkalinity and the pH of the rainwater; and in the river flow situation, PCN is found to generally depend on the temperature, pH, and chloride content. The advantage of using PCN instead of the widely used partitioning parameter, K_d, is found to lie in the PCN's efficacy to distinguish the adsorption (or sorption) behavior of metals in the above snowmelt, rainfall/runoff, and river flow situations, analogous to the hydrological behavior of watersheds.