Influence of Water Allocation and Freshwater Inflow on Oyster Production: A Hydrodynamic–Oyster Population Model for Galveston Bay,Texas, USA

A hydrodynamic–oyster population model was developed to assess the effect of changes in freshwater inflow on oyster populations in Galveston Bay, Texas, USA. The population model includes the effects of environmental conditions, predators, and the oyster parasite, Perkinsus marinus, on oyster populations. The hydrodynamic model includes the effects of wind stress, river runoff, tides, and oceanic exchange on the circulation of the bay. Simulations were run for low, mean, and high freshwater inflow conditions under the present (1993) hydrology and predicted hydrologies for 2024 and 2049 that include both changes in total freshwater inflow and diversions of freshwater from one primary drainage basin to another. Freshwater diversion to supply the Houston metropolitan area is predicted to negatively impact oyster production in Galveston Bay. Fecundity and larval survivorship both decline. Mortality from Perkinsus marinus increases, but to a lesser extent. A larger negative impact in 2049 relative to 2024 originates from the larger drop in fecundity under that hydrology. Changes in recruitment and mortality, resulting in lowered oyster abundance, occur because the bay volume available for mixing freshwater input from the San Jacinto and Buffalo Bayou drainage basins that drain metropolitan Houston is small in comparison to the volume of Trinity Bay that presently receives the bulk of the bay's freshwater inflow. A smaller volume for mixing results in salinities that decline more rapidly and to a greater extent under conditions of high freshwater discharge. Thus, the decline in oyster abundance results from a disequilibrium between geography and salinity brought about by freshwater diversion. Although the bay hydrology shifts, available hard substrate does not. The simulations stress the fact that it is not just the well-appreciated reduction in freshwater inflow that can result in decreased oyster production. Changing the location of freshwater inflow can also significantly impact the bay environment, even if the total amount of freshwater inflow does not change.     

Influence of water allocation and freshwater inflow on oyster production: a hydrodynamic-oyster population model for Galveston Bay,Texas, USA

A hydrodynamic-oyster population model was developed to assess the effect of changes in freshwater inflow on oyster populations in Galveston Bay, Texas, USA. The population model includes the effects of environmental conditions, predators, and the oyster parasite, Perkinsus marinus, on oyster populations. The hydrodynamic model includes the effects of wind stress, river runoff, tides, and oceanic exchange on the circulation of the bay. Simulations were run for low, mean, and high freshwater inflow conditions under the present (1993) hydrology and predicted hydrologies for 2024 and 2049 that include both changes in total freshwater inflow and diversions of freshwater from one primary drainage basin to another.Freshwater diversion to supply the Houston metropolitan area is predicted to negatively impact oyster production in Galveston Bay. Fecundity and larval survivorship both decline. Mortality from Perkinsus marinus increases, but to a lesser extent. A larger negative impact in 2049 relative to 2024 originates from the larger drop in fecundity under that hydrology. Changes in recruitment and mortality, resulting in lowered oyster abundance, occur because the bay volume available for mixing freshwater input from the San Jacinto and Buffalo Bayou drainage basins that drain metropolitan Houston is small in comparison to the volume of Trinity Bay that presently receives the bulk of the bay's freshwater inflow. A smaller volume for mixing results in salinities that decline more rapidly and to a greater extent under conditions of high freshwater discharge.Thus, the decline in oyster abundance results from a disequilibrium between geography and salinity brought about by freshwater diversion. Although the bay hydrology shifts, available hard substrate does not. The simulations stress the fact that it is not just the well-appreciated reduction in freshwater inflow that can result in decreased oyster production. Changing the location of freshwater inflow can also significantly impact the bay environment, even if the total amount of freshwater inflow does not change.     

Fluorescence imaging applied to tracer distributions in variably saturated fractured clayey till

The study of mechanisms controlling preferential flow and transport in variably saturated fractured clayey till is often hindered by insufficient spatial resolution or unknown measuring volume. With the objective to study these mechanisms while circumventing the obstacles, tracer experiments with two fluorescent tracers Acid Yellow 7 (AY7) and Sulforhodamine B (SB) were performed at three different rain events for a fall and a summer season. Irrigated areas were excavated down to depths of 2.8 m and the movement of both tracers in the exposed profiles was delineated simultaneously by high spatial resolution apparent concentration maps (pixel approximately 1 mm(2)) obtained with an imaging device. The device consists of a light source and a CCD camera, both equipped with tracer-specific-filters for fluorescent light. The fluorescence images were corrected for nonuniform lighting, changing surface roughness, and varying optical properties of the soil profile. The resulting two-dimensional apparent concentration distribution profiles of the tracers showed that: (i) relative low water content in the upper 10 cm of the irrigated till in summer had a pronounced retardation effect on the AY7-migration and no effect on the SB-migration; (ii) the dead-end biopores were not activated in the fall season; (iii) only 3D fracture-plans connected to hydraulically active 1D-biopores contributed to the leaching; (iv) the tracer migration primary followed macropores during both seasons, though AY7 also followed a topsoil piston transport in summer; (v) the highest tracer pixel apparent concentrations were often found in macropores and most pronounced in the summer season; and (vi) 3D-dilution in fractures seems to play a dominating role in AY7-migration in the fall season.     

TEMPORAL RESPONSES OF SURFACE‐WATER AND GROUND‐WATER TO PRECIPITATION IN ILLINOIS1

ABSTRACT: Illinois data from 168 months (1986–1999) were investigated to determine the responses of surface‐water and ground‐water resources to precipitation. Such responses were generally within the month of occurrence or one to two months later, with recovery being reached another one to three months into the future, depending on season of the year. Although the drought of 1988 immediately impacted surface‐water and ground‐water resources, the time of recovery was substantially longer compared to those of individual dry months, generally continuing for several months. The extremely wet summer of 1993 resulted in elevated responses in water resources almost immediately, but in this instance continued through the following fall and winter, into the spring of 1994.     

Instream sensor results suggest soil–plant processes produce three distinct seasonal patterns of nitrate concentrations in the Ohio River Basin

The Ohio River Basin (ORB) is responsible for 35% of total nitrate loading to the Gulf of Mexico yet controls on nitrate timing require investigation. We used a set of submersible ultraviolet nitrate analyzers located at 13 stations across the ORB to examine nitrate loading and seasonality. Observed nitrate concentrations ranged from 0.3 to 2.8 mg L⁻¹ N in the Ohio River's mainstem. The Ohio River experiences a greater than fivefold increase in annual nitrate load from the upper basin to the river's junction with the Mississippi River (74–415 Gg year⁻¹). The nitrate load increase corresponds with the greater drainage area, a 50% increase in average annual nitrate concentration, and a shift in land cover across the drainage area from 5% cropland in the upper basin to 19% cropland at the Ohio River's junction with the Mississippi River. Time-series decomposition of nitrate concentration and nitrate load showed peaks centered in January and June for 85% of subbasin-year combinations and nitrate lows in summer and fall. Seasonal patterns of the terrestrial system, including winter dormancy, spring planting, and summer and fall growing-harvest seasons, are suggested to control nitrate timing in the Ohio River as opposed to controls by river discharge and internal cycling. The dormant season from December to March carries 51% of the ORB's nitrate load, and nitrate delivery is high across all subbasins analyzed, regardless of land cover. This season is characterized by soil nitrate leaching likely from mineralization of soil organic matter and release of legacy nitrogen. Nitrate experiences fast transit to the river owing to the ORB's mature karst geology in the south and tile drainage in the northwest. The planting season from April to June carries 26% of the ORB's nitrate and is a period of fertilizer delivery from upland corn and soybean agriculture to streams. The harvest season from July to November carries 22% of the ORB's nitrate and is a time of nitrate retention on the landscape. We discuss nutrient management in the ORB including fertilizer efficiency, cover crops, and nitrate retention using constructed measures.     

TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL CHARACTERIZATION OF RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA1

requency evaluation and spatial characterization of rainfall in Central and South Florida are presented. Point frequency analysis performed at all available sites has shown that the 2‐parameter Gamma probability density function is the best model for monthly rainfall frequency over Central and South Florida. The model's parameters estimated at 145 stations were used to provide monthly rainfall estimates for 10‐ and 100‐year dry and wet return periods. Experimental and theoretical variograms computed for these estimates, as well as the Kriging estimation variance maps, show that the existing rain gage network is less capable of resolving monthly rainfall variation in the wet season than the dry season. May is the dry‐to‐wet transition month, while October is the wet‐to‐dry transition month with average rainfall of 4.5 inches. Monthly average rainfall is above 7 inches during the wet season and below 3 inches during the dry season. Two‐thirds of the annual rainfall is accumulated in the wet season. Annual average rainfall is maximum (above 60 inches) in many areas along the east coast, and is minimum (below 45 inches) in many areas over Lake Okee‐chobee and Central Florida. Rainfall maps show a changing pattern between the wet and the dry seasons. Frontal rainfall occurs in the dry season, while convective rainfall, tropical depression, and hurricanes occur in the wet season. Average rainfall is higher along the east coast area in the dry season and it is higher along the west coast area in the wet season.     

Air Pollution Potential: Regional Study in Argentina

/ Air pollution potential is a measure of the atmospheric conditions that are unable to transport and dilute pollutants into the air, independently of the existence of sources. This potential can be determined from two atmospheric parameters: mixing height and transport wind. In this paper a statistical analysis of the mixing height and transport wind, in order to determine the areas with high or poor atmospheric ventilation in Argentina, is presented. In order to achieve this, meteorological data registered during 1979-1982 at eight meteorological stations were used. Daily values of the maximum mixing height were calculated from observations of daily temperatures at different heights and maximum surface temperature. At the same time as the maximum mixing height, the values of the transport wind were determined from the surface windspeed and the characteristics of the ground in the surroundings of each meteorological station. The mean seasonal values for both parameters were obtained. Isopleths of the mean seasonal of the maximum mixing heights were drawn. The percentage of seasonal frequencies of poor ventilation conditions were calculated and the frequency isopleths were also drawn to determine areas with minor and major relative frequencies. It was found that the northeastern and central-eastern regions of Argentina had a high air pollution potential during the whole year. Unfavorable atmospheric ventilation conditions were also found in the central-western side of the country during the cold seasons (37.5% in autumn and 56.9% in winter). The region with the greatest atmospheric ventilation is located south of 40 degrees S, where the frequency of poor ventilation varies between 8.0% in summer and 10.8% in winter.     

Just Add Water and the Colorado River Still Reaches the Sea

A recent article in Environmental Management by All argued that flood flows in North America’s Colorado River do not reach the Gulf of California because they are captured and evaporated in Laguna Salada, a below sea-level lakebed near the mouth of the river. We refute this hypothesis by showing that (1) due to its limited area, the Laguna Salada could have evaporated less than 10% of the flood flows that have occurred since 1989; (2) low flow volumes preferentially flow to the Gulf rather than Laguna Salada; (3) All’s method for detecting water surface area in the Laguna Salada appears to be flawed because Landsat Thematic Mapper images of the lakebed show it to be dry when All’s analyses said it was flooded; (4) direct measurements of salinity at the mouth of the river and in the Upper Gulf of California during flood flows in 1993 and 1998 confirm that flood waters reach the sea; and (5) stable oxygen isotope signatures in clam shells and fish otoliths recorded the dilution of seawater with fresh water during the 1993 and 1998 flows. Furthermore, All’s conclusion that freshwater flows do not benefit the ecology of the marine zone is incorrect because the peer-reviewed literature shows that postlarval larval shrimp populations increase during floods, and the subsequent year’s shrimp harvest increases. Furthermore, freshwater flows increase the nursery area for Gulf corvina (Cynoscion othonopterus), an important commercial fish that requires estuarine habitats with salinities in the range of 26–38‰ during its natal stages. Although flood flows are now much diminished compared to the pre-dam era, they are still important to the remnant wetland and riparian habitats of the Colorado River delta and to organisms in the intertidal and marine zone. Only a small fraction of the flood flows are evaporated in Laguna Salada.     

Discharge and Nutrient Transport between Lakes in a Hydrologically Complex Area of Voyageurs National Park,Minnesota, 2010‐2012

An acoustic Doppler velocity meter (ADVM) was deployed in the narrows between Namakan and Kabetogama Lakes in Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota, from November 3, 2010, through October 3, 2012. The ADVM can account for wind, seiche, and changing flow direction in hydrologically complex areas. The objectives were to (1) estimate discharge and document the direction of water flow, (2) assess whether specific conductance can be used to determine flow direction, and (3) document nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations at the narrows. The discharge direction through the narrows was seasonal. Water generally flowed out of Kabetogama Lake and into Namakan Lake throughout the ice‐covered season. During spring, water flow was generally from Namakan Lake to Kabetogama Lake. During the summer and fall, the water flowed in both directions, affected in part by wind. Water flowed into Namakan Lake 70% of water year 2011 and 56% of water year 2012. Nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations were highest during the summer months when water‐flow direction was unpredictable. The use of an ADVM was effective for assessing flow direction and provided flow direction under ice. The results indicated the eutrophic Kabetogama Lake may have a negative effect on the more pristine Namakan Lake. The results also provide data on the effects of the current water‐level management plan and may help determine if adjustments are necessary to help protect the aquatic ecosystem of Voyageurs National Park.     

HEAVY RAINFALL DISTRIBUTIONS BY SEASON IN LOUISIANA: SYNOPTIC INTERPRETATIONS AND QUANTILE ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: In most studies, quantile estimates of extreme 24-hour rainfall are given in annual probabilities. The probability of experiencing an excessive storm event, however, differs throughout the year. As a result, this paper explored the differences between heavy rainfall distributions by season in Louisiana. It was concluded by using the Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney tests that the distribution of heavy rainfall events differs significantly between particular seasons at the sites near the Gulf Coast. Furthermore, seasonal frequency curves varied dramatically at the four sites examined. Mixed distributions within these data were not found to be problematic, but the mechanisms that produced the events were found to change seasonally. Extreme heavy rainfall events in winter and spring were primarily generated by frontal weather systems, while summer and fall events had high proportions of events produced by tropical disturbances and airmass (free-convective) conditions.     

Impacts of 21st‐Century Climate Change on Hydrologic Extremes in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America

Climate change projections for the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of North America include warmer temperatures (T), reduced precipitation (P) in summer months, and increased P during all other seasons. Using a physically based hydrologic model and an ensemble of statistically downscaled global climate model scenarios produced by the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project, we examine the nature of changing hydrologic extremes (floods and low flows) under natural conditions for about 300 river locations in the PNW. The combination of warming, and shifts in seasonal P regimes, results in increased flooding and more intense low flows for most of the basins in the PNW. Flood responses depend on average midwinter T and basin type. Mixed rain and snow basins, with average winter temperatures near freezing, typically show the largest increases in flood risk because of the combined effects of warming (increasing contributing basin area) and more winter P. Decreases in low flows are driven by loss of snowpack, drier summers, and increasing evapotranspiration in the simulations. Energy‐limited basins on the west side of the Cascades show the strongest declines in low flows, whereas more arid, water‐limited basins on the east side of the Cascades show smaller reductions in low flows. A fine‐scale analysis of hydrologic extremes over the Olympic Peninsula echoes the results for the larger rivers discussed above, but provides additional detail about topographic gradients.     

Impacts of Residential Development on Humid Subtropical Freshwater Resources: Southwest Florida Experience1

Abstract: The population of Collier and Lee Counties in southwestern Florida has increased 11‐fold from 1960 to 2004 with a concomitant increase in freshwater demand. Water levels and salinity within the water table aquifer over the past two to three decades have generally been stable, with more monitoring wells showing statistically significant temporal increases in water level than decreases. Residential development has had a neutral impact on the water table aquifer because the total annual evapotranspiration of residential communities is comparable to that of native vegetation and less than that of most agricultural land uses. Public water supply systems and private wells also result in net recharge to the water table aquifer with water produced from deeper aquifers. Confined freshwater aquifers have overall trends of decreasing water levels. However, with the exception of the mid‐Hawthorn aquifer, water levels in most areas recover to near background levels each summer wet season. Freshwater resources in humid subtropical areas, such as southwestern Florida, are relatively robust because of the great aquifer recharge potential from the excess of rainfall over ET during the wet season. Proper management can result in sustainable water resources.     

MODELING THE ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF A NAVIGATION CHANNEL IN A TIDAL BAY1

ABSTRACT: A circulation and salinity model was used to predict the effects of wind, fresh water inflow, and the construction of a navigation channel on Vermilion Bay, Louisiana. The model numerically solved continuity and motion equations and provided a time history and spatial distribution of tidal depths, flows, velocities, and salinity in two lateral dimensions. The model predicted that high south winds or high fresh water inflow would reduce average bay salinities, as would the construction of a channel through Vermilion Bay. The results suggested the main reason for this behavior is the presence of two bay outlets to the Gulf of Mexico.     

SEDIMENT TRANSPORT IN A SHALLOW COASTAL ESTUARY DURING THE WINTER SEASON1

ABSTRACT: This project analyzes suspended sediment flux through the upper Barataria basin in Louisiana during the winter season defined from November through April. The Barataria is a shallow coastal estuary located in southeastern Louisiana. The controls exerted by environmental parameters (such as wind or atmospheric pressure) in wetlands‐shallow bay ecosystems on transport of water and sediment were examined. Water samples were taken at a bayou (which serve as the inlet for flow to the estuary) on a regular basis. These samples were analyzed for total suspended solids and volatile suspended solids. Velocity, depth, temperature, salinity, conductivity, and meteorological measurements were all recorded at the time of each sampling. A multi‐parameter field probe was employed to continually monitor turbidity, water level, conductivity, and temperature during frontal events. These data were used in a regression analysis to examine the factors that drive carbon flux in the region. Investigations have determined that synoptic climate and prevailing weather conditions explain much of the variations in water levels, flow circulation patterns, salinity, and suspended sediment. Relatively small amounts of sediment appear to leave the estuary during normal tidal activity, but winter storm fronts result in significant fluxes of sediment in both up‐basin and down‐basin directions.     

STABLE ISOTOPE CHARACTERIZATION OF THE IMPACTS OF ARTIFICIAL GROUND WATER RECHARGE1

ABSTRACT: Stable isotopes of deuterium and oxygen-18 of surface and ground water, together with anion concentrations and hydraulic gradients, were used to interpret mixing and flow in ground water impacted by artificial recharge. The surface water fraction (SWF), the percentage of surface water in the aquifer impacted via recharge, was estimated at different locations and depths using measured deuterium/hydrogen (DIH) ratios during the 1992, 1993, and 1994 recharge seasons. Recharged surface water completely displaced the ground water beneath the recharge basins from the regional water table at 7.60 m to 12.16 m below the land surface. Mixing occurred beneath the recharge structures in the lower portions of the aquifer (>12.16 m). Approximately 12 m down-gradient from the recharge basin, the deeper zone (19.15 m depth) of the primary aquifer was displaced completely by recharged surface water within 193, 45, and 55 days in 1992, 1993, and 1994, respectively. At the end of the third recharge season, recharged surface water represented ～50 percent of the water in the deeper zone of the primary aquifer ～1000 m downgradient from the recharge basin. A classic asymmetrical distribution of recharged surface water resulted from the recharge induced horizontal and vertical hydraulic gradients. The distribution and breakthrough times of recharged surface water obtained with stable isotopes concurred with those of major anions and bromide in a tracer test conducted during the 1995 recharge season. This stable isotope procedure effectively quantified mixing between surface and ground water.     

Hydrologic Connectivity and the Contribution of Stream Headwaters to Ecological Integrity at Regional Scales1

Abstract: Cumulatively, headwater streams contribute to maintaining hydrologic connectivity and ecosystem integrity at regional scales. Hydrologic connectivity is the water‐mediated transport of matter, energy and organisms within or between elements of the hydrologic cycle. Headwater streams compose over two‐thirds of total stream length in a typical river drainage and directly connect the upland and riparian landscape to the rest of the stream ecosystem. Altering headwater streams, e.g., by channelization, diversion through pipes, impoundment and burial, modifies fluxes between uplands and downstream river segments and eliminates distinctive habitats. The large‐scale ecological effects of altering headwaters are amplified by land uses that alter runoff and nutrient loads to streams, and by widespread dam construction on larger rivers (which frequently leaves free‐flowing upstream portions of river systems essential to sustaining aquatic biodiversity). We discuss three examples of large‐scale consequences of cumulative headwater alteration. Downstream eutrophication and coastal hypoxia result, in part, from agricultural practices that alter headwaters and wetlands while increasing nutrient runoff. Extensive headwater alteration is also expected to lower secondary productivity of river systems by reducing stream‐system length and trophic subsidies to downstream river segments, affecting aquatic communities and terrestrial wildlife that utilize aquatic resources. Reduced viability of freshwater biota may occur with cumulative headwater alteration, including for species that occupy a range of stream sizes but for which headwater streams diversify the network of interconnected populations or enhance survival for particular life stages. Developing a more predictive understanding of ecological patterns that may emerge on regional scales as a result of headwater alterations will require studies focused on components and pathways that connect headwaters to river, coastal and terrestrial ecosystems. Linkages between headwaters and downstream ecosystems cannot be discounted when addressing large‐scale issues such as hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico and global losses of biodiversity.     

POLLUTANT LOADING CAPACITY FOR THE BLACK RWER,CHEHALIS RWER SYSTEM,WASHINGTON1

ABSTRACT: The Black River, a tributary of the Chehalis River in western Washington State, has a history of widespread low dissolved oxygen (DO), anoxia in some locations, and fish kills. As part of a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) study, environmental data were collected during two summer dry seasons and simulations were conducted with the WASP5 model to assess the effect of biochemical oxygen demand ( BOD ), ammonia, and nutrient loads on DO in the Black River. DO levels were below the State water quality regulatory criterion of 8.0 mg/L in almost all locations during the study. The slow middle reach of the river showed stratified conditions, with anoxia in some of the deepest pools. Based on model simulations, DO was found to still fall below the 8.0 mg/L criterion in the entire mainstem under “natural” conditions, and eutrophication was identified as a potential problem in the middle reach. A TMDL was proposed for BOD and ammonia that would prevent significant degradation of DO in the Black River. To prevent eutrophic conditions in the Black River, a TMDL for total phosphorus was proposed that establishes a protective criterion of 0.05 mg/L for the middle river during the dry low-flow season.     

AN ANALYSIS OF SEASONAL FECAL COLIFORM LEVELS IN THE TCHEFUNCTE RWER1

ABSTRACT: A model for estimating seasonal fecal coliform concentrations in the Tchefuncte River as a function of river discharge was developed. Data on fecal coliform concentration were obtained from the Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals and were available for a period of 15 years (1975 through 1992) from three locations. Stream flow data were obtained from a gaging station of the U. S. Geological Survey at Folsom, Louisiana. These data were available for 49 years (1943 through 1991). The climate of the area is characterized by different precipitation/runoff mechanisms for the summer and winter seasons. The division for seasons used in this analysis was May through October (summer season), and November through April (winter season). Because of the combined effects of climatic mechanisms causing precipitation and the seasonal variation of evapotranspiration, runoff is greater in the winter season resulting in higher fecal coliform counts in the Tchefuncte River. Statistical analysis revealed a statistically significant relationship between fecal coliform concentration and discharge for each season, at each of three sites on the Tchefuncte River.     

TRENDS IN FRESHWATER INFLOW TO SAN FRANCISCO BAY FROM TUE SACRAMENTO-SAN JOAQUIN DELTA1

ABSTRACT: Outflow from the Sacramento-San Joaquin river system (Delta outflow) provides about 90 percent of the freshwater flow to San Francisco Bay. Because this river system also supplies most of the water used in California, some believed that annual freshwater flow to the Bay had declined by as much as 50 to 60 percent as water use increased. Consequently, we studied trends in actual Delta outflow and precipitation for the period 1921 to 1986, which is when Delta outflow data are available. We found that there has been no decrease in the annual Delta outflow over this period. In fact, a statistically significant increase in annual Delta outflow of 87 cfa/yr has occurred during the period 1921 to 1986. One reason that Delta outflow has increased is because precipitation has increased faster than water use. Other contributing factors include increased runoff from land use changes, water imports from other areas, and the redistribution of ground water. In addition, statistically significant seasonal trends in Delta outflow were found. Over the period 1921–1986 Delta outflow decreased in April and May and increased from July through November. Changes in other months were not statistically significant. These seasonal changes result primarily from the operation of upstream flood control and water development projects, which store water in the spring and release it in the summer and fall. These seasonal changes are also influenced by a climatic shift that has decreased spring snowmelt runoff and increased late summer through winter precipitation.     

SENSITIVITY OF A PRAIRIE WETLAND TO INCREASED TEMPERATURE AND SEASONAL PRECIPITATION CHANGES1

ABSTRACT: We assessed the potential effects of increased temperature and changes in amount and seasonal timing of precipitation on the hydrology and vegetation of a semi-permanent prairie wetland in North Dakota using a spatially-defined, rule-based simulation model. Simulations were run with increased temperatures of 2°C combined with a 10 percent increase or decrease in total growing season precipitation. Changes in precipitation were applied either evenly across all months or to individual seasons (spring, summer, or fall). The response of semi-permanent wetland P1 was relatively similar under most of the seasonal scenarios. A 10 percent increase in total growing season precipitation applied to summer months only, to fall months only, and over all months produced lower water levels compared to those resulting from the current climate due to increased evapotranspiration. Wetland hydrology was most affected by changes in spring precipitation and runoff. Vegetation response was relatively consistent across scenarios. Seven of the eight seasonal scenarios produced drier conditions with no open water and greater vegetation cover compared to those resulting from the current climate. Only when spring precipitation increased did the wetland maintain an extensive open water area (49 percent). Potential changes in climate that affect spring runoff, such as changes to spring precipitation and snow melt, may have the greatest impact on prairie wetland hydrology and vegetation. In addition, relatively small changes in water level during dry years may affect the period of time the wetland contains open water. Emergent vegetation, once it is established, can survive under drier conditions due to its ability to persist in shallow water with fluctuating levels. The model's sensitivity to changes in temperature and seasonal precipitation patterns accentuates the need for accurate regional climate change projections from general circulation models.