Estimating the Variability and Confidence of Land Use and Imperviousness Relationships at a Regional Scale1

Abstract: Impervious cover is a commonly used metric to help explain or predict anthropogenic impacts on aquatic resources; often it is used as a surrogate for intensity of human impacts when evaluating effects on aquatic resources. The most common way to estimate imperviousness is based on relationships with land use. Few studies have evaluated how the relationship between impervious surface and land use varies among geographies with different levels of development and between types of imagery used to assign land use type. In this study, we assess variability in estimates of imperviousness based on two locally available land use datasets: one based on aerial imagery (2‐m resolution) and another based on satellite imagery (30‐m resolution). The ranges and variability in imperviousness within land use categories were assessed at several spatial scales, including within counties, between counties, and between watersheds. Results indicate that there was considerable variability for all developed land use types. Estimated impervious cover often varied over a range of 20‐40% points within a land use category. Furthermore, there were clear spatial patterns both between and within counties, with impervious cover for a given land use type being higher near the urban centers and lower at the margins of development. Estimates of imperviousness for 12 study watersheds indicated that variability increased with increasing watershed development, making it difficult to confidently set management or regulatory targets based on impervious cover. This study suggests that locally derived, high resolution satellite or aerial imagery should be used to estimate imperviousness when a high level of accuracy and precision is required for regulatory or management decisions. Furthermore, the error associated with impervious land use relationships should be accounted for when using impervious cover in runoff or water quality models, or when making management decisions regarding stream health.     

Effects of Impervious Cover at Multiple Spatial Scales on Coastal Watershed Streams1

Abstract: The spatial scale and location of land whose development has the strongest influence on aquatic ecosystems must be known to support land use decisions that protect water resources in urbanizing watersheds. We explored impacts of urbanization on streams in the West River watershed, New Haven, Connecticut, to identify the spatial scale of watershed imperviousness that was most strongly related to water chemistry, macroinvertebrates, and physical habitat. A multiparameter water quality index was used to characterize regional urban nonpoint source pollution levels. We identified a critical level of 5% impervious cover, above which stream health declined. Conditions declined with increasing imperviousness and leveled off in a constant state of impairment at 10%. Instream variables were most correlated (0.77 ≤ |r| ≤ 0.92, p < 0.0125) to total impervious area (TIA) in the 100‐m buffer of local contributing areas (～5‐km² drainage area immediately upstream of each study site). Water and habitat quality had a relatively consistent strong relationship with TIA across each of the spatial scales of investigation, whereas macroinvertebrate metrics produced noticeably weaker relationships at the larger scales. Our findings illustrate the need for multiscale watershed management of aquatic ecosystems in small streams flowing through the spatial hierarchies that comprise watersheds with forest‐urban land use gradients.     

INFLUENCES OF WATERSHED URBANIZATION AND INSTREAM HABITAT ON MACROINVERTEBRATES IN COLD WATER STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: We analyzed data from riffle and snag habitats for 39 small cold water streams with different levels of watershed urbanization in Wisconsin and Minnesota to evaluate the influences of urban land use and instream habitat on macroinvertebrate communities. Multivariate analysis indicated that stream temperature and amount of urban land use in the watersheds were the most influential factors determining macroinvertebrate assemblages. The amount of watershed urbanization was nonlinearly and negatively correlated with percentages of Ephemeroptera‐Plecoptera‐Trichoptera (EPT) abundance, EPT taxa, filterers, and scrapers and positively correlated with Hilsenhoff biotic index. High quality macroinvertebrate index values were possible if effective imperviousness was less than 7 percent of the watershed area. Beyond this level of imperviousness, index values tended to be consistently poor. Land uses in the riparian area were equal or more influential relative to land use elsewhere in the watershed, although riparian area consisted of only a small portion of the entire watershed area. Our study implies that it is extremely important to restrict watershed impervious land use and protect stream riparian areas for reducing human degradation on stream quality in low level urbanizing watersheds. Stream temperature may be one of the major factors through which human activities degrade cold‐water streams, and management efforts that can maintain a natural thermal regime will help preserve stream quality.     

Impacts of Urbanization on Stream Habitat and Fish Across Multiple Spatial Scales

We analyzed the relation of the amount and spatial pattern of land cover with stream fish communities, in-stream habitat, and baseflow in 47 small southeastern Wisconsin, USA, watersheds encompassing a gradient of predominantly agricultural to predominantly urban land uses. The amount of connected impervious surface in the watershed was the best measure of urbanization for predicting fish density, species richness, diversity, and index of biotic integrity (IBI) score; bank erosion; and base flow. However, connected imperviousness was not significantly correlated with overall habitat quality for fish. Nonlinear models were developed using quantile regression to predict the maximum possible number of fish species, IBI score, and base flow for a given level of imperviousness. At watershed connected imperviousness levels less than about 8%, all three variables could have high values, whereas at connected imperviousness levels greater than 12% their values were inevitably low. Connected imperviousness levels between 8 and 12% represented a threshold region where minor changes in urbanization could result in major changes in stream condition. In a spatial analysis, connected imperviousness within a 50-m buffer along the stream or within a 1.6-km radius upstream of the sampling site had more influence on stream fish and base flow than did comparable amounts of imperviousness further away. Our results suggest that urban development that minimizes amount of connected impervious surface and establishes undeveloped buffer areas along streams should have less impact than conventional types of development.     

FOREST COVER,IMPERVIOUS‐SURFACE AREA,AND THE MITIGATION OF STORMWATER IMPACTS1

ABSTRACT: For 20 years, King County, Washington, has implemented progressively more demanding structural and nonstructural strategies in an attempt to protect aquatic resources and declining salmon populations from the cumulative effects of urbanization. This history holds lessons for planners, engineers, and resource managers throughout other urbanizing regions. Detention ponds, even with increasingly restrictive designs, have still proven inadequate to prevent channel erosion. Costly structural retrofits of urbanized watersheds can mitigate certain problems, such as flooding or erosion, but cannot restore the predevelopment flow regime or habitat conditions. Widespread conversion of forest to pasture or grass in rural areas, generally unregulated by most jurisdictions, degrades aquatic systems even when watershed imperviousness remains low. Preservation of aquatic resources in developing areas will require integrated mitigation, which must including impervious‐surface limits, forest‐retention policies, stormwater detention, riparian‐buffer maintenance, and protection of wetlands and unstable slopes. New management goals are needed for those watersheds whose existing development precludes significant ecosystem recovery; the same goals cannot be achieved in both developed and undeveloped watersheds.     

IMPACTS OF URBAN LANDUSE ON MACROINVERTEBRATE COMMUNITIES IN SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: Macroinvertebrates were used to assess the impact of urbanization on stream quality across a gradient of watershed imperviousness in 43 southeastern Wisconsin streams. The percentage of watershed connected imperviousness was chosen as the urbanization indicator to examine impact of urban land uses on macroinvertebrate communities. Most urban land uses were negatively correlated with the Shannon diversity index, percent of pollution intolerant Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera individuals, and generic richness. Nonurban land uses were positively correlated with these same metrics. The Hilsenhoff biotic index indicated that stream quality declined with increased urbanization. Functional feeding group metrics varied across a gradient of urbanization, suggesting changes in stream quality. Proportions of collectors and gatherers increased, while proportions of filterers, scrapers, and shredders decreased with increased watershed imperviousness. This study demonstrated that urbanization severely degraded stream macroinvertebrate communities, hence stream quality. Good stream quality existed where imperviousness was less than 8 percent, but less favorable assessments were inevitable where imperviousness exceeded 12 to 20 percent. Levels of imperviousness between 8 and 12 percent represented a threshold where minor increases in urbanization were associated with sharp declines in stream quality.     

Effects of Watershed Impervious Cover on Dissolved Silica Loading in Storm Flow1

Abstract: Dissolved silica (DSi) availability is a factor that affects the composition of algal populations in aquatic ecosystems. DSi cycling is tightly linked to the hydrological cycle, which is affected by human alterations of the landscape. Development activities that increase impervious cover change watershed hydrology and may increase the discharge of DSi‐poor rainwater and decrease the discharge of DSi‐rich ground water into aquatic ecosystems, possibly shifting algal community composition toward less desirable assemblages. In this study, DSi loadings from two adjacent coastal watersheds with different percent impervious cover were compared during four rain and five nonrain events. Loadings in the more impervious watershed contained a significantly larger proportion of surface runoff than base flow (ground‐water discharge) and had lower [DSi] water during rain events than the less impervious watershed. Application of the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (CN) method showed that the minimum rainfall height necessary to yield runoff was significantly lower for the more impervious watershed, implying that runoff volumes increase with impervious cover as well as the frequency of runoff‐yielding events. Empirical data collected during this study and estimates derived from the CN method suggest that impervious cover may be responsible for both short‐term DSi limitation during rain events as well as long‐term reduction of DSi inputs into aquatic ecosystems.     

REVIVING URBAN STREAMS: LAND USE,HYDROLOGY, BIOLOGY,AND HUMAN BEHAVIOR1

ABSTRACT: Successful stream rehabilitation requires a shift from narrow analysis and management to integrated understanding of the links between human actions and changing river health. At study sites in the Puget Sound lowlands of western Washington State, landscape, hydrological, and biological conditions were evaluated for streams flowing through watersheds with varying levels of urban development. At all spatial scales, stream biological condition measured by the benthic index of biological integrity (B‐IBI) declined as impervious area increased. Impervious area alone, however, is a flawed surrogate of river health. Hydrologic metrics that reflect chronic altered streamflows, for example, provide a direct mechanistic link between the changes associated with urban development and declines in stream biological condition. These measures provide a more sensitive understanding of stream basin response to urban development than do treatment of each increment of impervious area equally. Land use in residential backyards adjacent to streams also heavily influences stream condition. Successful stream rehabilitation thus requires coordinated diagnosis of the causes of degradation and integrative management to treat the range of ecological stressors within each urban area, and it depends on remedies appropriate at scales from backyards to regional storm water systems.     

Detention Outlet Retrofit Improves the Functionality of Existing Detention Basins by Reducing Erosive Flows in Receiving Channels

By discharging excess stormwater at rates that more frequently exceed the critical flow for stream erosion, conventional detention basins often contribute to increased channel instability in urban and suburban systems that can be detrimental to aquatic habitat and water quality, as well as adjacent property and infrastructure. However, these ubiquitous assets, valued at approximately $600,000 per km² in a representative suburban watershed, are ideal candidates to aid in reversing such cycles of channel degradation because improving their functionality would not necessarily require property acquisition or heavy construction. The objective of this research was to develop a simple, cost‐effective device that could be installed in detention basin outlets to reduce the erosive power of the relatively frequent storm events (~ < two‐year recurrence) and provide a passive bypass to maintain flood control performance during infrequent storms (such as the 100‐year recurrence). Results from a pilot installation show that the Detain H₂O device reduced the cumulative sediment transport capacity of the preretrofit condition by greater than 40%, and contributed to reduced flashiness and prolonged baseflows in receiving streams. When scaling the strategy across a watershed, these results suggest that potential gains in water quality and stream channel stability could be achieved at costs that are orders of magnitude less than comparable benefits from newly constructed stormwater control measures.     

WATERSHED URBANIZATION AND CHANGES IN FISH COMMUNITIES IN SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: We compared watershed land‐use and fish community data between the 1970s and 1990s in 47 small streams in southeastern Wisconsin. Our goal was to quantify effects of increasing urbanization on stream fishes in what had been a predominantly agricultural region. In the 43 test watersheds, mean surface coverage by agricultural lands decreased from 54 percent to 43 percent and urban lands increased from 24 percent to 31 percent between 1970 and 1990. Agriculture dominated the four reference watersheds, but neither agriculture (65–59 percent) nor urban (4.4–4.8 percent) land‐uses changed significantly in those watersheds during the study period. From the 1970s to the 1990s the mean number of fish species for the test stream sites decreased 15 percent, fish density decreased 41 percent, and the index of biotic integrity (IBI) score dropped 32 percent. Fish community attributes at the four reference sites did not change significantly during the same period, although density was substantially lower in the 1990s. For both the 1970s and 1990s test sites, numbers of fish species and IBI scores were positively correlated with watershed percent agricultural land coverage and negatively correlated with watershed urban land uses, as indexed by percent effective connected imperviousness. Numbers of fish species per site and IBI scores were highly variable below 10 percent imperviousness, but consistently low above 10 percent. Sites that had less than 10 percent imperviousness and fewer than 10 fish species in the 1970s suffered the greatest relative increase in imperviousness and decline in species number over the study period. Our findings are consistent with previous studies that have found strong negative effects of urban land uses on stream ecosystems and a threshold of environmental damage at about 10 percent imperviousness. We conclude that although agricultural land uses often degrade stream fish communities, agricultural land impacts are generally less severe than those from urbanization on a per‐unit‐area basis.     

ASSESSMENT OF POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN AN URBAN CATCHMENT1

ABSTRACT: Stationarity of rainfall statistical parameters is a fundamental assumption in hydraulic infrastructure design that may not be valid in an era of changing climate. This study develops a framework for examining the potential impacts of future increases in short duration rainfall intensity on urban infrastructure and natural ecosystems of small watersheds and demonstrates this approach for the Mission/Wagg Creek watershed in British Columbia, Canada. Nonstationarities in rainfall records are first analyzed with linear regression analysis, and the detected trends are extrapolated to build potential future rainfall scenarios. The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is used to analyze the effects of increased rainfall intensity on design peak flows and to assess future drainage infrastructure capacity according to the derived scenarios. While the framework provided herein may be modified for cases in which more complex distributions for rainfall intensity are needed and more sophisticated stormwater management models are available, linear regressions and SWMM are commonly used in practice and are applicable for the Mission/Wagg Creek watershed. Potential future impacts on stream health are assessed using methods based on equivalent total impervious area. In terms of impacts on the drainage infrastructure, the results of this study indicate that increases in short duration rainfall intensity may be expected in the future but that they would not create severe impacts in the Mission/Wagg Creek system. The equivalent levels of imperviousness, however, suggest that the impacts on stream health could be far more damaging.     

EFFECTS OF MULTI‐SCALE ENVIRONMENTAL CHARACTERISTICS ON AGRICULTURAL STREAM BIOTA IN EASTERN WISCONSIN1

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Geological Survey examined 25 agricultural streams in eastern Wisconsin the determine relations between fish, invertebrate, and algal metrics and multiple spatial scales of land cover, geologic setting, hydrologic, aquatic habitat, and water chemistry data. Spearman correlation and redundancy analyses were used to examine relations among biotic metrics and environmental characteristics. Riparian vegetation, geologic, and hydrologic conditions affected the response of biotic metrics to watershed agricultural land cover but the relations were aquatic assemblage dependent. It was difficult to separate the interrelated effects of geologic setting, watershed and buffer land cover, and base flow. Watershed and buffer land cover, geologic setting, reach riparian vegetation width, and stream size affected the fish IBI, invertebrate diversity, diatom IBI, and number of algal taxa; however, the invertebrate FBI, percentage of EPT, and the diatom pollution index were more influenced by nutrient concentrations and flow variability. Fish IBI scores seemed most sensitive to land cover in the entire stream network buffer, more so than watershed‐scale land cover and segment or reach riparian vegetation width. All but one stream with more than approximately 10 percent buffer agriculture had fish IBI scores of fair or poor. In general, the invertebrate and algal metrics used in this study were not as sensitive to land cover effects as fish metrics. Some of the reach‐scale characteristics, such as width/depth ratios, velocity, and bank stability, could be related to watershed influences of both land cover and geologic setting. The Wisconsin habitat index was related to watershed geologic setting, watershed and buffer land cover, riparian vegetation width, and base flow, and appeared to be a good indicator of stream quality Results from this study emphasize the value of using more than one or two biotic metrics to assess water quality and the importance of environmental characteristics at multiple scales.     

BASE FLOW TRENDS IN URBANIZING WATERSHEDS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER BASIN1

Rapid land development is raising concern regarding the ability of urbanizing watersheds to sustain adequate base flow during periods of drought. Long term streamflow records from unregulated watersheds of the lower to middle Delaware River basin are examined to evaluate the impact of urbanization and imperviousness on base flow. Trends in annual base flow volumes, seven‐day low flows, and runoff ratios are determined for six urbanizing watersheds and four reference watersheds across three distinct physiographic regions. Hydrograph separation is used to determine annual base flow and stormflow volumes, and nonparametric trend tests are conducted on the resulting time series. Of the watersheds examined, the expected effects of declining base flow volumes and seven‐day low flows and increasing stormflows are seen in only one watershed that is approximately 20 percent impervious and has been subject to a net water export over the past 15 years. Both interbasin transfers and hydrologic mechanisms are invoked to explain these results. The results show that increases in impervious area may not result in measurable reductions in base flow at the watershed scale.     

URBANIZATION OF AQUATIC SYSTEMS: DEGRADATION THRESHOLDS,STORMWATER DETECTION,AND THE LIMITS OF MITIGATION1

ABSTRACT: Urbanization of a watershed degrades both the form and the function of the downstream aquatic system, causing changes that can occur rapidly and are very difficult to avoid or correct. A variety of physical data from lowland streams in western Washington displays the onset of readily observable aquatic-system degradation at a remarkably consistent level of development, typically about ten percent effective impervious area in a watershed. Even lower levels of urban development cause significant degradation in sensitive water bodies and a reduced, but less well quantified, level of function throughout the system as a whole. Unfortunately, established methods of mitigating the downstream impacts of urban development may have only limited effectiveness. Using continuous hydrologic modeling we have evaluated detention ponds designed by conventional event methodologies, and our findings demonstrate serious deficiencies in actual pond performance when compared to their design goals. Even with best efforts at mitigation, the sheer magnitude of development activities falling below a level of regulatory concern suggests that increased resource loss will invariably accompany development of a watershed. Without a better understanding of the critical processes that lead to degradation, some downstream aquatic-system damage is probably inevitable without limiting the extent of watershed development itself.     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SURFACE‐WATER QUALITY IN NORTH AMERICA1

ABSTRACT: Data from long‐term ecosystem monitoring and research stations in North America and results of simulations made with interpretive models indicate that changes in climate (precipitation and temperature) can have a significant effect on the quality of surface waters. Changes in water quality during storms, snowmelt, and periods of elevated air temperature or drought can cause conditions that exceed thresholds of ecosystem tolerance and, thus, lead to water‐quality degradation. If warming and changes in available moisture occur, water‐quality changes will likely first occur during episodes of climate‐induced stress, and in ecosystems where the factors controlling water quality are sensitive to climate variability. Continued climate stress would increase the frequency with which ecosystem thresholds are exceeded and thus lead to chronic water‐quality changes. Management strategies in a warmer climate will therefore be needed that are based on local ecological thresholds rather than annual median condition. Changes in land use alter biological, physical, and chemical processes in watersheds and thus significantly alter the quality of adjacent surface waters; these direct human‐caused changes complicate the interpretation of water‐quality changes resulting from changes in climate, and can be both mitigated and exacerbated by climate change. A rigorous strategy for integrated, long‐term monitoring of the ecological and human factors that control water quality is necessary to differentiate between actual and perceived climate effects, and to track the effectiveness of our environmental policies.     

WATERSHED RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE AT GLACIER NATIONAL PARK1

ABSTRACT: We have developed an approach which examines ecosystem function and the potential effects of climatic shifts. The Lake McDonald watershed of Glacier National Park was the focus for two linked research activities: acquisition of baseline data on hydrologic, chemical and aquatic organism attributes that characterize this pristine northern rocky mountain watershed, and further developing the Regional Hydro-Ecosystem Simulation System (RHESSys), a collection of integrated models which collectively provide spatially explicit, mechanistically-derived outputs of ecosystem processes, including hydrologic outflow, soil moisture, and snow-pack water equivalence. In this unique setting field validation of RHESSys, outputs demonstrated that reasonable estimates of SWE and streamflow are being produced. RHESSys was used to predict annual stream discharge and temperature. The predictions, in conjunction with the field data, indicated that aquatic resources of the park may be significantly affected. Utilizing RHESSys to predict potential climate scenarios and response of other key ecosystem components can provide scientific insights as well as proactive guidelines for national park management.     

Effect of Climate Warming and Drought on Urban Stream Temperatures in a Semiarid,Seasonal System

Stream temperatures are key indicators for aquatic ecosystem health, and are of particular concern in highly seasonal, water‐limited regions such as California that provide sensitive habitat for cold‐water species. Yet in many of these critical regions, the combined impacts of a warmer climate and urbanization on stream temperatures have not been systematically studied. We examined recent changes in air temperature and precipitation, including during the recent extreme drought, and compared the stream temperature responses of urban and nonurban streams under four climatic conditions and the 2008–2018 period. Metrics included changes in the magnitude and timing of stream temperatures, and the frequency of exceedance of ecologically relevant thresholds. Our results showed that minimum and average daily air temperatures in the region have increased by >1°C over the past 20 years, warming both urban and nonurban streams. Stream temperatures under drought warmed most (1°C–2°C) in late spring and early fall, effectively lengthening the summer warm season. The frequency of occurrence of periods of elevated stream temperatures was greater during warm climate conditions for both urban and nonurban streams, but urban streams experienced extreme conditions 1.5–2 times as often as nonurban streams. Our findings underscore that systematically monitoring and managing urban stream temperatures under climate change and drought is critically needed for seasonal, water‐limited urban systems.     

Water resources and land use and cover in a humid region: the southeastern United States

It is widely recognized that forest and water resources are intricately linked. Globally, changes in forest cover to accommodate agriculture and urban development introduce additional challenges for water management. The U.S. Southeast typifies this global trend as predictions of land-use change and population growth suggest increased pressure on water resources in coming years. Close attention has long been paid to interactions between people and water in arid regions; however, based on information from regions such as the Southeast, it is evident that much greater focus is required to sustain a high-quality water supply in humid areas as well. To that end, we review hydrological, physicochemical, biological, and human and environmental health responses to conversion of forests to agriculture and urban land uses in the Southeast. Commonly, forest removal leads to increased stream sediment and nutrients, more variable flow, altered habitat and stream and riparian communities, and increased risk of human health effects. Although indicators such as the percentage of impervious cover signify overall watershed alteration, the threshold to disturbance, or the point at which effects can been observed in stream and riparian parameters, can be quite low and often varies with physiographic conditions. In addition to current land use, historical practices can greatly influence current water quality. General inferences of this study may extend to many humid regions concerning climate, environmental thresholds, and the causes and nature of effects.     

WATERSHED IMPERVIOUSNESS IMPACTS ON STREAM CHANNEL CONDITION IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA1

ABSTRACT: Forty‐six independent stream reaches in southeastern Pennsylvania were surveyed to assess the relationships between geomorphic and habitat variables and watershed total impervious area (TIA) and to test the ability of the impervious cover model (ICM) to predict the impervious category based on stream reach variables. Ten variables were analyzed using simple and multivariate statistical techniques including scatter‐plots, Spearman's Rank correlations, principal components analysis (PCA), and discriminant analysis (DA). Graphical analysis suggested differences in the response to TIA between the stream reaches with less than 13 percent TIA and those with greater than 24 percent TIA. Spearman's Rank correlations showed significant relationships for large woody debris and sinuosity when analyzing the entire dataset and for depth diversity and the standard deviation of maximum pool depths when analyzing stream reaches with greater than 24 percent TIA. Classification into the ICM using DA was 49 percent accurate; however, the stream reaches did support the ICM in other ways. These results indicate that stream reach response to urbanization may not be consistent across geographical regions and that local conditions (specifically riparian buffer vegetation) may significantly affect channel response; and the ICM, used in the appropriate context, can aid in the management of stream reaches and watersheds.     

Nutrient and Sediment Production,Watershed Characteristics,and Land Use in the Tahoe Basin,California‐Nevada1

Abstract: In efforts to control the degradation of water quality in Lake Tahoe, public agencies have monitored surface water discharge and concentrations of nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended sediment in two separate sampling programs. The first program focuses on 20 watersheds varying in size from 162 to 14,000 ha, with continuous stream gaging and periodic sampling; the second focuses on small urbanized catchments, with automated sampling during runoff events. Using data from both programs, we addressed the questions (1) what are the fluxes and concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus entering the lake from surface runoff; (2) how do the fluxes and concentrations vary in space and time; and (3) how are they related to land use and watershed characteristics? To answer these questions, we calculated discharge‐weighted average concentrations and annual fluxes and used multiple regression to relate those variable to a suite of GIS‐derived explanatory variables. The final selected regression models explain 47‐62% of the variance in constituent concentrations in the stormwater monitoring catchments, and 45‐72% of the variance in mean annual yields in the larger watersheds. The results emphasize the importance of impervious surface and residential density as factors in water quality degradation, and well‐developed soil as a factor in water quality maintenance.