MULTICRITERION DECISION MAKING FOR FLOOD CONTROL OPERATIONS: THEORY AND APPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Flood control operations are generally complex in nature, as they are often associated with a large quantity of uncertain factors in combination of noncommensurable criteria. It has been found that the use of fuzzy set theory coupled with multicriterion decision making (MCDM) methods is very promising. In this paper, a multicriterion fuzzy recognition model is established for flood control operations. A subjective preference and iterative weights method is proposed for weight assessment. First, an initial solution of criteria weights, which is directly analyzed from the selected alternatives, is obtained by using the proposed fuzzy recognition model. Then, according to their knowledge related to real time flood operations, operators may modify the initial weights if necessary. When the relative membership grades of alternatives belonging to all rankings are fixed, a defuzzification equation is used to calculate the rank feature value vector. Based on the rank feature value vector, one can evaluate the alternative set. Two flood operation cases are provided to illustrate the application of the proposed model. With the incorporation of the operator's knowledge related to flood operations, the proposed model is flexible in giving weights and realizes more practical flood control operations.     

FLOOD PROOFING DECISIONS WITH UNCERTAIN EVENTS1

ABSTRACT: The addition of flood proofing to other (structural and non-structural) flood damage reduction measures broadens the choice among existing alternatives for decision makers and consequently enables the possibility of improved expected net benefits from an overall flood damage reduction scheme. Planners are interested in more than just expected values of net benefits, however. The inherent riskiness of various alternative plans must be considered as well. Therefore, a partial equilibrium framework is specified for purposes of estimating means and variances of a measure of net benefits from flood proofing. The model is applied to selected communities in the Connecticut River Basin and sample computer results are provided.     

LAKE LEVEL CONTROL AND MANAGEMENT - A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: The frequent high water levels in Chisago Chain of Lakes, located in east-central Minnesota, have caused extensive flood damages. Recent floods raised the concern of the local property owners and they pressured the Chisago County Board of Managers to initiate a study of alternative lake control levels. A study was carried out to identify potential flood control alternatives, screen out the most promising feasible alternatives, and recommend the most cost-effective flood control measure. Several flood control alternatives were considered - eight of them were analyzed and evaluated in detail. A statistical method was used to estimate the expected annual flood damages under existing and future conditions. The effect of all proposed control measures on the annual flood damage reductions (benefits) were determined. Detailed benefit/cost analyses were carried out to evaluate the economic feasibility of alternatives. The effect of potential flood control measures on the environment was also studied. The economic analysis of the most cost-effective alternative did not strongly support artificial lake level control, therefore the decision-making authorities were even more firm in their position to maintain the present condition and chose the Null Alternative as the most suitable alternative.     

多级模糊模式识别方法用于河流水质评价

应用多级模糊模式识别模型进行水质量分类评价,克服了最大隶属度原则所不适用的地方,而且以相对隶属度、隶属函数为基础理论,使隶属度、隶属函数的计算更容易。建立了多级模糊模式识别模型,并应用于汾河水质分类评价中,应用结果表明,该方法合理、可行。     

Impacts of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation Events Over Flamingo Tropicana Watershed1

Abstract: Climate change, particularly the projected changes to precipitation patterns, is likely to affect runoff both regionally and temporally. Extreme rainfall events are expected to become more intense in the future in arid urban areas and this will likely lead to higher streamflow. Through hydrological modeling, this article simulates an urban basin response to the most intense storm under anthropogenic climate change conditions. This study performs an event‐based simulation for shorter duration storms in the Flamingo Tropicana (FT) watershed in Las Vegas, Nevada. An extreme storm, defined as a 100‐year return period storm, is selected from historical records and perturbed to future climatic conditions with respect to multimodel multiscenario (A1B, A2, B1) bias corrected and spatially disaggregated data from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) database. The cumulative annual precipitation for each 30‐year period shows a continuous decrease from 2011 to 2099; however, the summer convective storms, which are considered as extreme storms for the study area, are expected to be more intense in future. Extreme storm events show larger changes in streamflow under different climate scenarios and time periods. The simulated peak streamflow and total runoff volume shows an increase from 40% to more than 150% (during 2041‐2099) for different climate scenarios. This type of analysis can help evaluate the vulnerability of existing flood control system and flood control policies.     

Impacts of Human Behavioral Heterogeneity on the Benefits of Probabilistic Flood Warnings: An Agent‐Based Modeling Framework

Flood forecasts and warnings are intended to reduce flood‐related property damages and loss of human life. Considerable research has improved flood forecasting accuracy (e.g., more accurate prediction of the occurrence of flood events) and lead time. However, the delivery of improved forecast information alone is not necessarily sufficient to reduce flood damage and loss of life, as people have varying responses and reactions to flood warnings. This study develops an agent‐based modeling framework that evaluates the impacts of heterogeneity in human behaviors (i.e., variation in behaviors in response to flood warnings), as well as residential density, on the benefits of flood warnings. The framework is coupled with a traffic model to simulate evacuation processes within a road network under various flood warning scenarios. The results show the marginal benefit associated with providing better flood warnings is significantly constrained if people behave in a more risk‐tolerant manner, especially in high‐density residential areas. The results also show significant impacts of human behavioral heterogeneity on the benefits of flood warnings, and thus stress the importance of considering human behavioral heterogeneity in simulating flood warning‐response systems. Further study is suggested to more accurately model human responses and behavioral heterogeneity, as well as to include more attributes of residential areas to estimate and improve the benefits of flood warnings.     

USING VALUES IN PLANNING WASTEWATER FACILITIES FOR METROPOLITAN SEATTLE1

ABSTRACT: This paper uses the fundamental values of decision makers to guide a long-term wastewater planning process at Seattle Metro, a major utility district. Multiattribute value assessment is used to elicit the objectives of several elected officials and other key decision makers. The results are structured into a fundamental objectives hierarchy and a means-ends objectives network. A set of measures to indicate the performance of planning alternatives in terms of the fundamental objectives is developed. Preliminary value tradeoffs between objectives are elicited from several elected officials. The results of these steps are useful for many aspects of long-term planning: facilitating communication about values and priorities; designing attractive alternatives that are more likely to serve stakeholder interests; identifying information needed to evaluate alternatives; clarifying the relative importance of information about different impacts; providing a basis for quantitative evaluation of the alternatives with multiple objective analysis; and focusing attention on key tradeoffs that will affect the choice of alternatives.     

Methodology for Developing Flood Rule Curves Conditioned on El Niño‐Southern Oscillation Classification1

Lee, Se‐Yeun, Alan F. Hamlet, Carolyn J. Fitzgerald, and Stephen J. Burges, 2011. Methodology for Developing Flood Rule Curves Conditioned on El Niño‐Southern Oscillation Classification. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):81‐92. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00490.x Abstract: Regional climate varies on interannual and decadal time scales that in turn affect annual streamflows, flood risks, and reservoir storage deficits in mid‐summer. However, these variable elements of the climate system are generally not included in water resources operating policies that attempt to preserve a balance between flood risk and other water resources system objectives. A methodology for incorporating El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) information in designing flood control curves is investigated. An optimization‐simulation procedure is used to develop a set of ENSO‐conditioned flood control rule curves that relate streamflow forecasts to flood control evacuation requirements. ENSO‐conditioned simulated flood risk and storage deficits under current operating policy are used to calibrate a unique objective function for each ENSO classification. Using a case study for the Columbia River Basin, we demonstrate that ENSO‐conditioned flood control curves constructed using the optimization‐simulation procedure consistently reduce storage deficits at a number of interrelated projects without increasing flood risk. For the Columbia Basin, the overall improvements in reservoir operations are relatively modest, and (in isolation) might not motivate a restructuring of flood control operations. However, the technique is widely applicable to a wide range of water resources systems and/or different climate indices.     

An Evaluation of Multiple Objective Decision Support Weighting Techniques in Natural Resource Management

Multiple objective decision support (MODS) is a structured framework for evaluating decision alternatives against multiple, and often conflicting, criteria. Its ability to handle complex trade-offs in a variety of quantitative and qualitative units gives it much potential in the field of natural resource management (NRM). A key component of MODS is the process used to obtain information from decision makers on the relative importance of evaluative criteria. Ranking algorithms then use this information to determine the relative value of each decision alternative. This paper explores how practising community based NRM decision makers respond to five generic methods for weighting the criteria. It presents a study in which 55 decision makers throughout five regions in Queensland, Australia, applied MODS to evaluate environmental projects seeking funding under the Australian Natural Heritage Trust. Weighting methods applied include fixed point scoring, rating, ordinal ranking, a graphical method and paired comparisons. Decision makers evaluated each weighting method in terms of ease of use and of how much it helped clarify the decision problem. Results show that decision makers felt uncomfortable applying fixed point scoring and generally preferred to express their preferences through ordinal ranking. This has implications for the types of ranking algorithms that can be applied to evaluate the decision alternatives.     

FLOOD MANAGEMENT: WHO BENEFITS AND WHO PAYS1

ABSTRACT: The distribution of costs and benefits among groups in society of alternative flood management actions is examined in terms of their final incidence or resting place-their influence on real estate values. The alternatives examined include structures, disaster relief, floodproofing, watershed land treatment, floodplain zoning, and flood insurance. The impact of each alternative on the amount of flood disability cost paid by the landowner is examined and variations among alternatives are used to explain the past political success of structures and relief as compared to zoning, floodproofing, and insurance.     

STRATEGY FOR DYNAMIC REGIONAL WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND IMPLEMENTATION1

ABSTRACT Water resources planning has emphasized the consideration of alternatives in the formulation of goals and objectives. With greater availability of data and projection models, optimization of plans is now much nearer to accomplishment. In contrast to these favorable aspects of planning, increased complexity of plans and large number of alternatives serving differing sets of goals have extended the time horizons from initial plan formulation to eventual implementation. In this paper a man-machine strategy is proposed to reduce the time required for decision making and conflict resolution. A panel of representatives of the decision makers, influentials and publics involved are selected and brought through a series of dynamic planning steps that simulate real time decision making. Computer interaction graphics is used to visualize the decision making process and to illustrate where and why conflict arises. A mechanism for resolution of conflict and retention of consistency in policy formulation using a cognograph is described.     

Multi‐Criteria Decision Support Systems for Flood Hazard Mitigation and Emergency Response in Urban Watersheds1

Abstract: Flood management problems are inherently complex, time‐bound and multi‐faceted, involving many decision makers (with conflicting priorities and dynamic preferences), high decision stakes, limited technical information (both in terms of quality and quantity), and difficult tradeoffs. Multi‐Criteria Decision Support Systems (MCDSS) can help to manage this complexity and decision load by combining value judgments and technical information in a structured decision framework. A brief overview of MCDSS is presented, an original MCDSS architecture is put forth, and future research directions are discussed, including extensions to Multi‐Criteria Spatial Decision Support Systems and group MCDSS (as flood management involves shared resources and broad constituencies). With application to the September 11‐12, 2000 Tokai floods in Japan, the proposed multi‐criteria decision support instruments enhance communication among stakeholders and improve emergency management resource allocation. In summary, by making the links among flood knowledge, assumptions and choices more explicit, MCDSS increases stakeholder satisfaction, saves lives, and reduces flood management costs, thereby increasing decision‐making effectiveness, efficiency and transparency.     

Communicating About Bioenergy Sustainability

Defining and measuring sustainability of bioenergy systems are difficult because the systems are complex, the science is in early stages of development, and there is a need to generalize what are inherently context-specific enterprises. These challenges, and the fact that decisions are being made now, create a need for improved communications among scientists as well as between scientists and decision makers. In order for scientists to provide information that is useful to decision makers, they need to come to an agreement on how to measure and report potential risks and benefits of diverse energy alternatives in a way that allows decision makers to compare options. Scientists also need to develop approaches that contribute information about problems and opportunities relevant to policy and decision making. The need for clear communication is especially important at this time when there is a plethora of scientific papers and reports and it is difficult for the public or decision makers to assess the merits of each analysis. We propose three communication guidelines for scientists whose work can contribute to decision making: (1) relationships between the question and the analytical approach should be clearly defined and make common sense; (2) the information should be presented in a manner that non-scientists can understand; and (3) the implications of methods, assumptions, and limitations should be clear. The scientists’ job is to analyze information to build a better understanding of environmental, cultural, and socioeconomic aspects of the sustainability of energy alternatives. The scientific process requires transparency, debate, review, and collaboration across disciplines and time. This paper serves as an introduction to the papers in the special issue on “Sustainability of Bioenergy Systems: Cradle to Grave” because scientific communication is essential to developing more sustainable energy systems. Together these four papers provide a framework under which the effects of bioenergy can be assessed and compared to other energy alternatives to foster sustainability.     

模糊综合评判在达州市环境空气质量评价中的应用

运用模糊综合评判的方法,选取二氧化硫、二氧化氮和可吸入颗粒物作为评价因子,参照我国环境空气质量标准,通过建立各污染物的隶属函数和权重集,计算出各污染物的隶属度和权重分配系数,进而对达州市空气质量进行模糊综合评判。并将模糊综合评判法与空气污染指数分析所得结果进行比较。     

WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT IN THE HSINTIEN RIVER IN TAIWAN1

ABSTRACT: The objective of cost effectiveness has led to the use of mathematical decision models to implement the best water quality control program in a river from the various alternatives available at a time. The paper presents the water quality control program in the Hsintien River in Taiwan by the use of probabilistic programming technique.     

A NEW LOOK AT FLOOD RISK DETERMINATION1

ABSTRACT: The probability distributions of annual peak flows used in flood risk analysis quantify the risk that a design flood will be exceeded. But the parameters of these distributions are themselves to a degree uncertain and this uncertainty increases the risk that the flood protection provided will in fact prove to be inadequate. The increase in flood risk due to parameter uncertainty is small when a fairly long record of data is available and the annual flood peaks are serially independent, which is the standard assumption in flood frequency analysis. But standard tests for serial independence are insensitive to the type of grouping of high and low values in a time series, which is measured by the Hurst coefficient. This grouping increases the parameter uncertainty considerably. A study of 49 annual peak flow series for Canadian rivers shows that many have a high Hurst coefficient. The corresponding increase in flood risk due to parameter uncertainty is shown to be substantial even for rivers with a long record, and therefore should not be neglected. The paper presents a method of rationally combining parameter uncertainty due to serial correlation, and the stochastic variability of peak flows in a single risk assessment. In addition, a relatively simple time series model that is capable of reproducing the observed serial correlation of flood peaks is presented.     

洪水灾害遥感监测研究综述

洪水灾害是最严重的自然灾害之一,洪灾造成的损失十分严重,对其进行科学的监测是防灾减灾的基础。在洪水灾害遥感监测研究进展的介绍基础上,着重对中分辨率、高时相、微波、高精度DEM、多源数据遥感洪水监测原理及方法的研究进展进行比较和总结,分析各种数据特点。在此基础上提出了洪水遥感监测向高分辨率、高时相性方向,遥感影像相互订正和利用3S技术是洪涝灾害动态监测发展的方向,为洪水灾害的快速反应和防洪辅助决策提供依据。     

ASSESSING FLOOD MITIGATION ALTERNATIVES IN SHIJR AREA IN METROPOLITAN TAIPEI1

The Keelung River Basin in northern Taiwan lies immediately upstream of the Taipei metropolitan area. The Shijr area is in the lower basin and is subject to frequent flooding. This work applies micromanagement and source control, including widely distributed infiltration and detention/ retention runoff retarding measures, in the Wudu watershed above Shijr. A method is also developed that combines a genetic algorithm and a rainfall runoff model to optimize the spatial distribution of runoff retarding facilities. Downstream of Wudu in the Shijr area, five dredging schemes are considered. If 10‐year flood flows cannot be confined in the channel, then a levee embankment that corresponds to the respective runoff retarding scheme will be required. The minimum total cost is considered in the rule to select from the regional flood mitigation alternatives. The results of this study reveal that runoff retarding facilities installed in the upper and middle parts of the watershed are most effective in reducing the flood peak. Moreover, as the cost of acquiring land for the levee embankment increases, installing runoff retarding measures in the upper portion of the watershed becomes more economical.