UNCERTAINTY IN ESTIMATING BANKFULL CONDITIONS1

ABSTRACT: Bankfull depth and discharge are basic input parameters to stream planform, stream restoration, and highway crossing designs, as well as to the development of hydraulic geometry relationships and the classification of streams. Unfortunately, there are a wide variety of definitions for bankfull that provide a range of values, and the actual selection of bankfull is subjective. In this paper, the relative uncertainty in determining the bankfull depth and discharge is quantified, first by examining the variability in the estimates of bankfull and second by using fuzzy numbers to describe bankfull depth. Fuzzy numbers are used to incorporate uncertainty due to vagueness in the definition of bankfull and subjectivity in the selection of bankfull. Examples are provided that demonstrate the use of a fuzzy bankfull depth in sediment trans. port and in stream classification. Using fuzzy numbers to describe bankfull depth rather than a deterministic value allows the engineer to base designs and decisions on a range of possible values and associated degrees of belief that the bankfull depths take on each value in that range.     

Pragmatic Approaches for Water Management Under Climate Change Uncertainty1

Stakhiv, Eugene Z., 2011. Pragmatic Approaches for Water Management Under Climate Change Uncertainty. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1183–1196. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00589.x Abstract: Water resources management is in a difficult transition phase, trying to accommodate large uncertainties associated with climate change while struggling to implement a difficult set of principles and institutional changes associated with integrated water resources management. Water management is the principal medium through which projected impacts of global warming will be felt and ameliorated. Many standard hydrological practices, based on assumptions of a stationary climate, can be extended to accommodate numerous aspects of climate uncertainty. Classical engineering risk and reliability strategies developed by the water management profession to cope with contemporary climate uncertainties can also be effectively employed during this transition period, while a new family of hydrological tools and better climate change models are developed. An expansion of the concept of “robust decision making,” coupled with existing analytical tools and techniques, is the basis for a new approach advocated for planning and designing water resources infrastructure under climate uncertainty. Ultimately, it is not the tools and methods that need to be revamped as much as the suite of decision rules and evaluation principles used for project justification. They need to be aligned to be more compatible with the implications of a highly uncertain future climate trajectory, so that the hydrologic effects of that uncertainty are correctly reflected in the design of water infrastructure.     

EVALUATION OF URBAN STREAM CORRIDOR RESTORATION DESIGN ALTERNATIVES USING HEC-21

ABSTRACT: The rehabilitation of urban stream channels and riparian areas involves a potentially large number of design alternatives. When substantial modifications are planned, water surface profile models (e.g., HEC-2) provide a means for a thorough and efficient evaluation of many design variations. The rehabilitation of a reach of Paradise Creek, Idaho, utilized the REC-2 model to verify the appropriateness of a new channel geometry and explore the consequences of variable floodplain geometries and excavation depths. The desirability of habitat diversity, coupled with the constraints of minimized earthwork costs and adequate flow capacity, framed the floodplain design question. The final design geometry was iteratively approached using the HEC-2 model to mimic the existing channel capacity. This modeling framework produces as output computed water surface elevations for the design channel and floodplain under any discharge. Hence, the method provides the means for demonstrating that rehabilitation designs will (or will not) cause increases in flood elevations, an assessment that is generally required for project approval.     

EXPERIMENTAL EVALUATION OF MULTIPLE CRITERIA DECISION MODELS FOR APPLICATION TO WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: A research project was undertaken for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to determine the relative utility and effectiveness of four well-known multicriteria decision making (MCDM) models for applications in realistic water resources planning settings. A series of experiments was devised to examine the impact of rating and ranking procedures on the decision making behavior of users (e.g., planners, managers, analysts, etc.) when faced with situations involving multiple evaluation criteria and numerous alternative planning projects. The four MCDM models tested were MATS-PC, EXPERT CHOICE, ARIADNE, and ELECTRE. Two groups of analysts and decision makers were tested. One group consisted of experienced U.S. Army Corps planners, while the other was comprised of graduate students. Based on a series of nonparametric statistical tests, the results identified EXPERT CHOICE as the preferred MCDM model by both groups based largely on ease of use and understandability. ARIADNE fostered the largest degree of agreement within and among the two groups of individuals tested. The tests also lend support to the claim that rankings are not affected significantly by the choice of decision maker (i.e., who uses any of these MCDM models) or which of these four models is used.     

Improving our legacy: incorporation of adaptive management into state wildlife action plans

The loss of biodiversity is a mounting concern, but despite numerous attempts there are few large scale conservation efforts that have proven successful in reversing current declines. Given the challenge of biodiversity conservation, there is a need to develop strategic conservation plans that address species declines even with the inherent uncertainty in managing multiple species in complex environments. In 2002, the State Wildlife Grant program was initiated to fulfill this need, and while not explicitly outlined by Congress follows the fundamental premise of adaptive management, 'Learning by doing'. When action is necessary, but basic biological information and an understanding of appropriate management strategies are lacking, adaptive management enables managers to be proactive in spite of uncertainty. However, regardless of the strengths of adaptive management, the development of an effective adaptive management framework is challenging. In a review of 53 State Wildlife Action Plans, I found a keen awareness by planners that adaptive management was an effective method for addressing biodiversity conservation, but the development and incorporation of explicit adaptive management approaches within each plan remained elusive. Only ~25% of the plans included a framework for how adaptive management would be implemented at the project level within their state. There was, however, considerable support across plans for further development and implementation of adaptive management. By furthering the incorporation of adaptive management principles in conservation plans and explicitly outlining the decision making process, states will be poised to meet the pending challenges to biodiversity conservation.     

SIMULATION AS AN AID TO DECISION MAKING IN A WATER UTILITY1

ABSTRACT. Middle and high management levels within water utilities would find their decision making activities greatly enhanced if provided with a set of techniques having the following characteristics: (1) the ability to procure information and knowledge about real-life systems, (2) the ability to promote analysis of the real life system and (3) the capacity to gauge the impact of decisions. A model/simulation is presented, having the capability to mime operational aspects of water supply systems. The simulation produces time series of what are considered relevant operational variables. These series are amenable to analysis of both static and dynamic effects of alternative policies, changing environmental conditions and varying parametric specifications. Because of its modular structure and the ad hoc programming language utilized, it offers great flexibility. The model/simulation allows extensions, deletions and modifications without consequent reformulation or extensive reprogramming. It performs a number of statistical tests useful for its own verification and validation. Also available are a suggested methodology and procedures for model use, possible difficulties with data gathering and operation, plus an idea of what cannot be done with the currently extant model version.     

Interaction Between Scientists and Nonscientists in Community-Based Watershed Management: Emergence of the Concept of Stream Naturalization

The authors' personal experience in watershed planning and decision making in the agricultural Midwest is described to illustrate how: (1) formalization of the process of community-based management is not sufficient to guarantee that local people will meaningfully consider scientific information and opinion when making decisions about watersheds, and (2) genuine social interaction between scientists and nonscientists requires a considerable investment of time and energy on the part of the scientist to develop personal relationships with nonscientists based on trust and mutual exchange of information. This experience provides the basis for developing a general conceptual model of the interaction between scientists and nonscientists in community-based watershed management in the agricultural Midwest. An important aspect of integrating science effectively into community-based decision making is the need to revise existing concepts to accommodate place-based contexts. Stream naturalization is introduced as an alternative to stream restoration and rehabilitation, which are viewed as inappropriate management strategies in human-dominated environments. Stream naturalization seeks to establish sustainable, morphologically and hydraulically varied, yet dynamically stable fluvial systems that are capable of supporting healthy, biologically diverse aquatic ecosystems. This general goal is consistent with the types of stream-management practices emerging from community-based decision making in human-dominated, agricultural landscapes. Further research on the linkages between geomorphological and ecological dynamics of human-modified agricultural streams over multiple spatial and temporal scales is needed to provide a sound scientific framework for stream naturalization.     

Using Multicriteria Methods in Environmental Planning and Management

In environmental planning and decision processes several alternatives are analyzed in terms of multiple noncommensurate criteria, and many different stakeholders with conflicting preferences are involved. Based on our experience in real-life applications, we discuss how multicriteria decision aid (MCDA) methods can be used successfully in such processes. MCDA methods support these processes by providing a framework for collecting, storing, and processing all relevant information, thus making the decision process traceable and transparent. It is therefore possible to understand and explain why, under several conflicting preferences, a particular decision was made. The MCDA framework also makes the requirements for new information explicit, thus supporting the allocation of resources for the process.