The 2007‐2009 Drought in Athens,Georgia, United States: A Climatological Analysis and an Assessment of Future Water Availability1

Campana, Pete, John Knox, Andrew Grundstein, and John Dowd, 2012. The 2007‐2009 Drought in Athens, Georgia, United States: A Climatological Analysis and an Assessment of Future Water Availability. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(2): 379‐390. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00619.x Abstract: Population growth and development in many regions of the world increase the demand for water and vulnerability to water shortages. Our research provides a case study of how population growth can augment the severity of a drought. During 2007‐2009, a drought event that caused extreme societal impacts occurred in the Athens, Georgia region (defined as Clarke, Barrow, Oconee, and Jackson counties). An examination of drought indices and precipitation records indicates that conditions were severe, but not worse than during the 1925‐1927, 1954‐1956, and 1985‐1987 drought events. A drought of similar length to the 2007‐2009 drought would be expected to occur approximately every 25 years. Streamflow analysis shows that discharge levels in area streams were at a record low during 2007 before water restrictions were implemented, because of greater water usage caused by recent population increases. These population increases, combined with a lack of water conservation, led to severe water shortages in the Athens region during late 2007. Only after per capita usage decreased did water resources last despite continuing drought conditions through 2009. Retaining mitigation strategies and withdrawal levels such as seen during the height of the drought will be an essential strategy to prevent water shortages during future extreme drought events. The key mitigation strategy, independent local action to restrict water use in advance of state‐level restrictions, is now prohibited by Georgia State Law.     

A SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF THE PALMER HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT INDEX1

ABSTRACT: The sensitivity of the Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index to departures from average temperature and precipitation conditions is examined. A time series of zero index values was calculated and then one monthly temperature or precipitation value was perturbed. The resulting time series shows the effects on the index of one anomalous value. Independent series were calculated for temperature anomalies of plus and minus 1, 3, 5, and 10F and for precipitation anomalies of 25, 50, 75, 125, 150, and 200 percent of normal for each calendar month for Colorado, Indiana, Nevada, New York, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Washington, and Wisconsin. Analysis of the time series showed that the period of time required for the index to reflect actual rather than artificial initial conditions could be more than four years. It was also found that the effects of temperature anomalies are insignificant compared to the effects of precipitation anomalies. In some cases, one anomalous precipitation value could result in established wet or dry spells that last for up to two years. Although not examined in detail, the time series suggest that distributions of index values may be asymmetrical and possibly bimodal.     

THE TREE-RING RECORD OF SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT1

ABSTRACT: Frequent and persistent droughts exacerbate the problems caused by the inherent scarcity of water in the semiarid to arid parts of the southwestern United States. The occurrence of drought is driven by climatic variability, which for years before about the beginning of the 20th century in the Southwest must be inferred from proxy records. As part of a multidisciplinary study of the potential hydrologic impact of severe sustained drought on the Colorado River, the physical basis and limitations of tree rings as indicators of severe sustained drought are reviewed, and tree-ring data are analyzed to delineate a “worst-case” drought scenario for the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Runs analysis of a 121-site tree-ring network, 1600–1962, identifies a four-year drought in the 1660s as the longest-duration large-scale drought in the Southwest in the recent tree-ring record. Longer tree-ring records suggest a much longer and more severe drought in 1579–1598. The regression estimate of the mean annual Colorado River flow for this period is 10.95 million acre-feet, or 81 percent of the long-term mean. The estimated flows for the 1500s should be used with caution in impact studies because sample size is small and some reconstructed values are extrapolations.     

A question of ‘fit’: local perspectives on top-down flood mitigation policies in Vermont

Despite consensus on the need to adapt to climate change, who should adapt, and how, remain open questions. While local-level actions are essential to adaptation, state and federal governments can play a substantial role in adaptation. In this paper, we investigate local perspectives on state-level flood mitigation policies in Vermont as a means of analysing what leads top-down adaptations to be effective in mobilizing local action. Drawing on interviews with town officials, we delineate local-level perspectives on Vermont's top-down policies and use those perspectives to develop a conceptual framework that presents the ‘fit’ between top-down policies and the local-level context as comprised of three components: Receptivity, Ease of Participation, and Design. We explain how these components and their interactions influence local-level action. This analysis points to how careful consideration of the components of ‘fit’ may lead to greater local-level uptake of top-down adaptation policies.     

SUMMER FLOODING AT CHICAGO AND POSSIBLE RELATIONSHIPS TO URBAN-INCREASED HEAVY RAINFALL1

ABSTRACT: : Studies of two measures of flooding in the Chicago metropolitan area reveal a wide range of floods with the magnitude related to recurrence interval expressions of rain intensity. Minor type floods (in basements and underpasses) usually result from localized heavy rains (≤ 3-hour duration) with return intervals of 1 to 2 years, and more major floods result from rains with return intervals of 2 to 5 years (or more). Urban-factors help lead to increases in warm season rain events in Chicago with 1- to 4-year return intervals. These apparently help lead to 10 to 100 percent more flooding events in Chicago than expected. The range of increase varies depending on locale and type of flood, but the increases in storms should be accounted for in drainage designs.     

TESTS OF THE CREAMS MODEL ON AGRICULTURAL FIELDS IN VERMONT1

ABSTRACT: The computer model, CREAMS, has been developed for field-sized agricultural areas to aid in best management practices evaluation and planning. A test of CREAMS was performed by comparing monthly observed and simulated values for runoff, sediment, and phosphorus exports from two agricultural fields in Vermont to determine the applicability of the model in cold climates. Water quality samples were collected from field runoff and analyzed for both total suspended solids and total phosphorus. Generally, exports were overestimated during low flow months and underestimated during high flow months. Significant r²values (p <0.05), ranging from 0.78 to 0.90, between simulated and observed data were found for all comparisons except for sediment export from one field. Comparisons of the slopes of the regressions between observed and simulated values and the ideal slope of one using t-tests revealed significant differences between simulated and observed monthly runoff, sediment, and phosphorus exports. It is postulated that this lack of adequate prediction could be attributed to the use of average monthly, instead of daily, temperature and solar radiation in calculations of evapotranspiration and snowmelt, and the use of static parameter values for parameters that vary seasonally.     

农业气象干旱指标研究综述

干旱作为最严重的气象灾害之一，已经对我国社会经济和人民生活造成严重影响。结合农业干旱和气象干旱基本理论，对农业气象干旱的定义及指标作了较为详细的综述与评价，指出了不同指标的优点和缺点，对今后的研究方向进行了展望，为干旱的监测和评估及农业防灾减灾研究提供了方法和依据。     

AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF WATER CONSERVATION POLICY1

Water conservation is a much emphasized policy of the Federal government. Discussion of water conservation proposals often involves confusion between a conservation “ethic,” which is an end in itself, and conservation as a means for attaining various economic objectives. Analysis indicates that outside of ground water “mining.” water is usually a renewable and reusable resource. During periods of normal precipitation, water conservation should be employed only when the value of the water saved exceeds the cost of effecting the savings. Water conservation is most valuable as a drought contingency tactic. Water conservation as a substitute for structural provision to meet normal water demand growth is apt to prove shortsighted.     

STATE ACTIONS TO MITIGATE DROUGHT LESSONS LEARNED1

ABSTRACT: Drought has been a common feature in the United States during the past decade and has resulted in significant economic, social, and environmental impacts in virtually all parts of the nation. The purpose of this paper is two fold. First, the status of state drought planning is discussed to illustrate the significant increase in the number of states that have prepared response plans - from three states in 1982 to 27 in 1997. In addition, six states are now in various stages of plan development. Second, mitigative actions implemented by states in response to the series of severe drought years since 1986 are summarized. This information was obtained through a survey of states. The study concludes that states have made significant progress in addressing drought-related issues and concerns through the planning process. However, existing plans are still largely reactive in nature, treating drought in an emergency response mode. Mitigative actions adopted by states provide a unique archive that may be transferable to other states. Incorporating these actions into a more anticipatory, risk management approach to drought management will help states move away from the traditional crisis management approach.