Indoor air exposure to coal and wood combustion emissions associated with a high lung cancer rate in Xuan Wei, China

Residents of Xuan Wei County in China have unusually high lung cancer mortality that cannot be attributed to tobacco use or occupational exposure. They are exposed to smoke from unvented, open pit coal or wood fires (often used for cooking and heating). The variation in lung cancer rates among communes within the county suggests that indoor combustion of smoky coal may be the prime determinant of lung cancer. To characterize the air in Xuan Wei homes, samples of air particles and semivolatile organic compounds were collected from homes located in two communes; one commune has a high rate of lung cancer, and the other has a low rate. Samples collected in the commune where the lung cancer rate is high and where smoky coal is the predominant fuel contained high concentrations of small particles with high organic content; organic extracts of these samples were mutagenic. Samples from homes in the wood-burning commune, which has a low rate of lung cancer, consisted mostly of larger particles of lower organic content and mutagenicity. The smoky coal sample was a mouse skin carcinogen and was a more potent initiator of skin tumors in comparison to the wood or smokeless coal sample.     

Mutagenic and carcinogenic potency of extracts of diesel and related environmental emissions: Two-stage carcinogenesis in skin tumor sensitive mice (SENCAR)

Skin tumors can be induced by the sequential application of a subthreshold dose of a carcinogen (initiation phase), followed by repetitive treatment with a noncarcinogenic tumor promoter. There is a very good dose-response relationship between the induction of the number of papillomas per mouse at early times (10 to 20 weeks) by either tumor initiators and promoters and the final carcinoma incidence after a longer latency (20 to 50 weeks) in SENCAR mice. This system not only can be used to determine the tumor initiating and promoting activities of a compound but if the agent is given repeatedly by itself one can also determine if it is a complete carcinogen, i.e., if it has both tumor initiating and promoting activity. In addition, if the agent is given concurrently with a known complete carcinogen or a tumor initiator one can also determine if the agent has cocarcinogenic or cotumor initiating activity or even possibly anticarcinogenic activity. Likewise, if the agent is given concurrently with a known tumor promoter one can determine if the agent has copromoting or antipromoting activity. Using the SENCAR skin carcinogenesis system we have undertaken the determination of the skin carcinogenic, cocarcinogenic, tumor initiating and promoting activities of various diesel emission particle extracts as well as for comparative purposes, standards such as benzo(a)pyrene and 12-0-tetradecanoylphorbol-13-acetate and extracts of emissions from a gasoline engine, roofing tar, coke oven and cigarette smoke condensate. Most of the studies are still in progress but some preliminary data is available on the comparative tumor initiating activities of the various samples at 14 weeks. Caterpillar diesel and cigarette smoke condensate were essentially without activity, whereas the Mustang gasoline catalyst and Olds diesel gave extremely low values although they were slightly above background. Roofing tar, coke oven and Nissan Diesel all gave moderate activity at high doses (1 to 10 mg) but when compared to benzo(a)pyrene were relatively low values.     

The cost-effectiveness of residential radon remediation programmes: assumptions about benefits stream profiles over time

A recent cost-effectiveness analysis of a residential radon remediation programme considered and highlighted many areas of uncertainty in the parameters chosen for the analysis. One assumption not challenged in the study was the benefits stream profile adopted. There are several different ways of loading the benefits in terms of life years into the cost-effectiveness model and several of these are explored and the results are reported in this study. The benefits profile depends upon the lead-time to cancer manifestation post environmental carcinogen (radon) exposure. The literature reviewed suggests that there are many options for loading benefits to radon-induced lung cancer prevention programmes. In this study, the alternative benefits stream profiles are explored and their implications for the cost-effectiveness ratio are examined. Adopting different benefits stream profiles to the model results in a range of cost-effectiveness ratios from 14912.90 pounds per life year gained to 52416.27 pounds per life year gained. The preferred model is reported where the life years gained are assumed to be equally distributed over the last 15 years of the 40-year time horizon of the analysis (Y25-40) and the corresponding cost-effectiveness ratio is 37,943 pounds per life year gained.     

Changes in rice disasters across China in recent decades and the meteorological and agronomic causes

Both climate extremes and agricultural disasters have been reported to increase in recent decades; however, so far, we have little idea on the characteristics of agricultural disasters changes, as well as their meteorological and agronomic causes. Here, using the observed records on rice disasters at agro-meteorological stations across China and the meteorological indexes, we investigated the temporal and spatial changes of major rice disasters occurrence frequency and their relationships to climate change, climate extremes and agronomic practices from 1991 to 2009. We presented the temporal and spatial changes in occurrence frequency of major rice disasters, including droughts, floods, heat stress, chilling damage, insects and diseases, during the warmer period of 2000–2009, in comparison with the period of 1991–2000, based on both the observed records and the meteorological indexes. The results showed that changes in rice disasters could be largely ascribed to changes in climate extremes in recent decades. Floods, insects and diseases occurred more frequently at earlier growth stages; in contrast, chilling damage occurred more frequently at later growth stages in southwestern China during the period of 2000–2009, in comparison with the period of 1991–2000. Our findings highlighted the options should be taken timely and scientifically to reduce the disasters and to cope with ongoing climate change, based on the characteristics of agricultural disasters changes in recent decades.     

长江中游城市群城市创新差异的时空格局演变

以专利申请总量为主要指标,采用地理集中指数和马尔可夫链方法,从时间、空间和地理临近性视角来分析2000~2014年长江中游城市群城市创新差异的时空格局演变。研究结果表明:(1)城市群城市创新差异呈现由高度集中向渐进式分散,由核心城市向外围城市缓慢扩散的演变趋势,出现高水平和低水平趋同俱乐部强化锁定,中低水平趋同俱乐部局部变动的趋势。(2)城市群城市创新类型发生空间转移与城市创新发展水平紧密相关,城市创新发展水平差距越小,发生转移的概率越高;反之,发生转移的概率越低;(3)邻域创新环境影响城市群城市创新差异的演变,地理临近性在低水平、中低水平城市创新类型表现不明显,而在中高水平城市创新类型显著增加。     

Inferring the 1985–2014 impact of mobile phone use on selected brain cancer subtypes using Bayesian structural time series and synthetic controls

BackgroundMobile phone use has been increasing rapidly in the past decades and, in parallel, so has the annual incidence of certain types of brain cancers. However, it remains unclear whether this correlation is coincidental or whether use of mobile phones may cause the development, promotion or progression of specific cancers. The 1985–2014 incidence of selected brain cancer subtypes in England were analyzed and compared to counterfactual ‘synthetic control’ timeseries.MethodsAnnual 1985–2014 incidence of malignant glioma, glioblastoma multiforme, and malignant neoplasms of the temporal and parietal lobes in England were modelled based on population-level covariates using Bayesian structural time series models assuming 5,10 and 15 year minimal latency periods. Post-latency counterfactual ‘synthetic England’ timeseries were nowcast based on covariate trends. The impact of mobile phone use was inferred from differences between measured and modelled time series.ResultsThere is no evidence of an increase in malignant glioma, glioblastoma multiforme, or malignant neoplasms of the parietal lobe not predicted in the ‘synthetic England’ time series. Malignant neoplasms of the temporal lobe however, have increased faster than expected. A latency period of 10 years reflected the earliest latency period when this was measurable and related to mobile phone penetration rates, and indicated an additional increase of 35% (95% Credible Interval 9%:59%) during 2005–2014; corresponding to an additional 188 (95%CI 48–324) cases annually.ConclusionsA causal factor, of which mobile phone use (and possibly other wireless equipment) is in agreement with the hypothesized temporal association, is related to an increased risk of developing malignant neoplasms in the temporal lobe.     

Assessment of acid rock drainage pollutants release in the uranium mining site of Poços de Caldas--Brazil

We compared three different techniques to assess acid drainage occurrence connected to pyritic waste rock piles at a uranium mining and milling site in Po?os de Caldas--Brazil: (1) mass balance calculations, (2) column leaching experiments and (3) geochemical modelling. The study site was chosen because all the drainage coming from the pile is collected in one holding pond and a huge database (monitoring program) was available. The three independent methods predicted similar values for the intrinsic oxidation rate (IOR) (about 10(-9) kg m-3 s-1). We estimate the total time for consumption of all oxidizable material in the dump to be greater than 500 years. Geochemical model results showed a good agreement between predicted sulphate concentrations in relation to those found in the waste pile drainage, although the Al values were overestimated and pH values were underestimated.     

基于模拟土壤含水量的长江上游#br# 干旱事件时空特征分析

干旱灾害是对我国农业生产和生态环境影响最为严重的自然灾害之一,研究干旱的时空变化特征对干旱的评估、预测有重要的指导意义。研究基于VIC（Variable Infiltration Capacity）模型模拟的50km分辨率的逐日土壤含水量数据,计算土壤含水量距平指数（SMAPI）并分析了长江流域上游1953~2013年历史干旱事件的时空变化特征。结果表明：（1）VIC模型能较好的模拟出1980~2000年长江流域上游出口宜昌断面的流量过程;（2）SMAPI指数能够反映长江流域上游实际干旱的发生、发展过程和严重程度,能够较好地再现历史干旱情形;（3）通过研究长江流域上游的干旱历时 面积 强度关系发现,干旱历时一定时,随着干旱面积的增加,干旱强度总体呈增强的趋势。研究结果对于深入认识长江流域上游历史干旱长期演变特征和增强区域防旱抗旱能力具有一定的理论和实用价值。 关键词： VIC模型;土壤含水量距平指数;时空特征;长江上游     

Using radon-222 as indicator for the evaluation of the efficiency of groundwater remediation by in situ air sparging

A common approach for remediation of groundwater contamination with volatile organic compounds (VOCs) is contaminant stripping by means of in situ air sparging (IAS). For VOC stripping, pressurized air is injected into the contaminated groundwater volume, followed by the extraction of the contaminant-loaded exhaust gas from the vadose soil zone and its immediate on-site treatment. Progress assessment of such remediation measure necessitates information (i) on the spatial range of the IAS influence and (ii) on temporal variations of the IAS efficiency. In the present study it was shown that the naturally occurring noble gas radon can be used as suitable environmental tracer for achieving the related spatial and temporal information. Due to the distinct water/air partitioning behaviour of radon and due to its straightforward on-site detectability, the radon distribution pattern in the groundwater can be used as appropriate measure for assessing the progression of an IAS measure as a function of space and time. The presented paper discusses both the theoretical background of the approach and the results of an IAS treatment accomplished at a VOC contaminated site lasting six months, during which radon was applied as efficiency indicator.     

Radiation-induced adaptive response in fish cell lines

There is considerable interest at present in low-dose radiation effects in non-human species. In this study gamma radiation-induced adaptive response, a low-dose radiation effect, was examined in three fish cell lines, (CHSE-214 (Chinook salmon), RTG-2 (rainbow trout) and ZEB-2J (zebrafish)). Cell survival after exposure to direct radiation with or without a 0.1 Gy priming dose, was determined using the colony forming assay for each cell line. Additionally, the occurrence of a bystander effect was examined by measuring the effect of irradiated cell culture medium from the fish cell lines on unexposed reporter cells. A non-linear dose response was observed for all cell lines. ZEB-2J cells were very sensitive to low doses and a hyper-radiosensitive (HRS) response was observed for doses <0.5 Gy. A typical protective adaptive response was not detected in any of the three fish cell lines tested. Rather, it was found that pre-exposure of these cells to 0.1 Gy radiation sensitized the cells to subsequent high doses. In CHSE-214 cells, increased sensitivity to subsequent high doses of radiation was observed when the priming and challenge doses were separated by 4 h; however, this sensitizing effect was no longer present when the interval between doses was greater than 8 h. Additionally, a "protective" bystander response was observed in these cell lines; exposure to irradiated medium from fish cells caused increased cloning efficiency in unirradiated reporter cells. The data confirm previous conclusions for mammalian cells that the adaptive response and bystander effect are inversely correlated and contrary to expectations probably have different underlying mechanisms.     

突变级数法在区域生态系统健康评价中的应用

目前在多目标综合评价方面有层次分析、因子分析、模糊评判等诸多方法．但有些方法对权重的确定主观性较大或计算过程过于复杂。介绍了突变理论用于多准则决策问题的基本思想和步骤，该法不需对评价指标赋以权重。它只考虑指标的相对重要性。避免了直接使用难于确定且主观性较大的“权重”概念。因而显得简易。同时．突变级数是一种多维模糊隶属函数。用它来计算通常模糊数学的多目标评价决策问题。就更适宜和更准确。以广东省生态系统健康评价为实例．引用相关文献中的数据构建了适用于突变级数法的层次结构指标体系．运用突变理论中的归一公式。计算了广东省生态系统的健康得分，发现健康排名与实际情况较为符合．证明了该方法的可行性。文章同时使用了加权平均法对指标体系进行计算，通过比较。发现原文献的结果与本文采用的两种方法的评价结果基本一致。尤其是健康程度较好和较坏的区域。实例表明．突变级数法较为简便、快捷和可靠。这为解决区域多目标评价问题提供了一种新的思路。     

安徽省冬季PM2.5污染来源及其成因分析

随着中国城市化和工业化的加速发展,大气污染的问题日益突出,严重危害公众身体健康。基于安徽省逐小时PM2.5浓度监测数据,采用后向轨迹模式、潜在源因子分析法（PSCF）和权重浓度分析法（CWT）,构建PM2.5来源分析模型,分析了安徽省PM2.5的来源,并结合地理探测器辨析了影响PM2.5本底贡献浓度的驱动因子。结果表明：（1）本底贡献、本底外溢和外地输送这3个动态过程对安徽省PM2.5浓度的时空变化有重要的影响;（2）PM2.5月累计逐小时测量浓度、总浓度、外地输送浓度、本底贡献浓度、本底外溢浓度和月均PM2.5本底排放贡献率,均在整体呈现出西南高、东北低的分布趋势,但前3项在安徽西北部的阜阳、亳州和淮北等地出现高值区;（3）安徽省约97.5%的面积外地输送贡献率>50%,下辖市PM2.5本底排放贡献率在30%~50%,说明1月污染以外地输送为主;（4）工厂密度、车辆保有量密度和人口密度对PM2.5月累计本底贡献浓度的解释力q值分别为0.33、0.47和0.61,通过与PM2.5月累计测量浓度地理探测分析结果的比较,表明人为要素与PM2.5月累计本底贡献浓度的关系更加密切。研究结果可为区域大气污染治理提供科学的参考依据。     

Brain cancer associated with environmental lead exposure: Evidence from implementation of a National Petrol-Lead Phase-Out Program (PLPOP) in Taiwan between 1979 and 2007

Background and objectiveIn 1981, a Petrol-Lead Phase-Out Program (PLPOP) was launched in Taiwan for the abatement of environmental lead emissions. The present study was intended to examine whether the high Petrol-Lead Emission Areas (PLEA) would result in an increase in the incidence rate of brain cancer based on a national data bank.MethodsThe national brain cancer incidence data was obtained from the Taiwan National Cancer Registry. Age standardized incidence rates were calculated based on the 2000 WHO world standard population, and gasoline consumption data was obtained from the Bureau of Energy. The differences in the trend tests for age-standardized incidence rates of brain cancer between high, median, low, and small PLEA were analyzed.ResultsA significant increase was found from small to high PLEA in age-standardized incidence rates of brain cancer. By taking six possible confounders into account, the age-standardized incidence rates for brain cancer were highly correlated with the median and high PLEA by reference to the small PLEA.ConclusionAfter being adjusted for a number of relevant confounders, it could be concluded that high PLEA might result in an increase in the incidence rate of brain cancer resulting from high lead exposures.     

Impacts of future land use/land cover on wildfire occurrence in the Madrid region (Spain)

This paper assesses the relative importance of socioeconomic factors linked to fire occurrence through the simulation of future land use/land cover (LULC) change scenarios in the Madrid region (Spain). This region is a clear example of the socioeconomic changes that have been occurring over recent decades in the European Mediterranean as well as their impact on LULC and fire occurrence. Using the LULC changes observed between 1990 and 2006 as a reference, future scenarios were run up to 2025 with the conversion of land use and its effects model. Simultaneously, the relationship between LULC arrangement (interfaces) and historical fire occurrence was calculated using logistic regression analysis and used to quantify changes in future fire occurrence due to projected changes in LULC interfaces. The results revealed that it is possible to explain the probability of fire occurrence using only variables obtained from LULC maps, although the explanatory power of the model is low. In this context, border areas between some LULC types are of particular interest (i.e., urban/forest, grassland/forest and agricultural/forest interfaces). Results indicated that expected LULC changes in Euro-Mediterranean regions, particularly given the foreseeable increase in the wildland–urban interface, will substantially increase fire occurrence (up to 155 %). This underlines the importance of future LULC scenarios when planning fire prevention measures.     

2005~2010年我国自然灾害救助应急响应的时间变化特征

自然灾害救助应急响应是减轻自然灾害风险的重要途径,也是政府的重要职责,2005年被纳入《国家自然灾害救助应急预案》,反映了我国自然灾害救助工作的发展变化和“以预防为主”的应急管理新思路。收集整理2005~2010年国家启动的历次自然灾害救助应急响应情况,对应急响应的时间变化特征进行分析讨论。结果表明：（1）2005~2010年,国家共针对130次重大灾害事件启动应急响应235次,各级别响应的比例与灾害发生的频次比例相当;（2）近年应急响应以洪涝、台风及其引发的滑坡和泥石流灾害为主,高发重发期在汛期（6～9月）,尤以7月为最;而旱灾、低温冷冻和雪灾以及风雹灾害的关键期分别为春夏秋三季、冬春季节和春末夏初;（3）应急响应特征研究启示减灾救灾工作要因时、因地、因灾制宜,并加快基于过程的灾害风险评估和脆弱性机理研究等 .     

“绿水”的多角度评估及其管理研究

传统的水资源评估和管理忽视了在粮食生产和维护生态系统等方面都具有重要作用的"绿水".本文引入绿水概念,并针对现有绿水评估研究中缺乏小尺度评估方法研究等问题,以碧流河上游地区为例,使用SWAT水文模型在小尺度建立了多角度评估绿水(包括绿水流和绿水贮存)的方法.并使用此方法估算得到了绿水量,绿水时空分布规律以及气候变化条件下绿水的响应规律,研究了引入绿水概念后传统水资源管理的重要革新内容.研究结果表明,使用SWAT水文模型评估流域绿水,是引入绿水概念后进行小尺度绿水评估的有效办法,值得在中国推广使用.绿水评估结果对水资源管理有重要的指导作用.绿水概念的引入为水资源的管理与决策提供了新的思路和更加科学的办法.     

基于决策树—山体阴影模型的植被信息提取研究

植被是土地覆被分类的重要内容,植被分类对研究流域生态具有重要参考价值。鄂西犟河流域是南水北调中线工程的重要水源地,该区以中低山和丘陵为主,地形起伏剧烈,导致遥感影像存在大量阴影,制约了植被分类的精度。基于LandSAT OLI影像,使用ArcGIS的Hillshade模块,输入DEM数据和传感器具体参数,计算得到影像成像时刻阴影的准确分布;统计野外采集地物样本点在MNDWI、NDVI和RVI等指数上的差异;结合决策树分类法,分别设定阴影和非阴影下6类样本的阈值进行分类。结果表明:(1)该方法总分类精度能够达到92.93%,Kappa系数为0.912;(2)阴影和非阴影区植被具备明显的同物异谱和异物同谱特征,表现为阳面的植被指数整体高于阴面;3类林地的RVI值由高往低依次为:灌木,混交林和针叶林。(3)传统经验模型在不同纬度的适用性不同,无法精确提取阴影的范围,降低了分类精度;决策树—山体阴影模型作为一种智能分类方法,能够还原Landsat OLI影像准确的阴影分布,提高山地和丘陵等阴影面积大、形状复杂区域的植被分类精度。     

近百年来洞庭湖堤垸空间变化及成因分析

系统分析洞庭湖堤垸的空间变迁规律对于阐明湖区调蓄水量的变化原因及其洪涝灾害的形成机制具有重要的意义。以《洞庭湖历史变迁地图集》为基础,运用ArcGIS的空间分析技术,对洞庭湖民国前期（1921~1930年）、民国后期（1930~1949年）、解放初期（1950~1963年）、20世纪70年代（1963~1980年）和现状（80年代至今）5个时期的堤垸演变进行了研究,详细分析了其空间格局的变迁规律及其成因。研究结果表明：自民国以来洞庭湖的堤垸面积虽不断增加,但速率明显减慢,从最初的3126%减缓至现在的273%;民国前期洞庭湖堤垸面积为5 08419 km2,民国后期所围堤垸主要集中在沅江中东部;至解放初期,通过兴建国营农场,并且在大通湖及西、南洞庭湖进行围垸,堤垸面积增加至8 10210 km2;至20世纪70年代,堤垸扩展部分主要集中在湖区西北角;近30 a来,由于“退田还湖”政策的实施,堤垸面积及其分布相对变化不大     

长江经济带旅游业碳排放效率的综合测度与时空分异

以长江经济带为研究对象，运用DEA-SBM模型和Malmquist-Luenberger指数法，对2001～2016年长江经济带旅游业碳排放效率进行综合测度，从静态和动态的视角考察其旅游业碳排放效率的时空分异特征，并进一步探讨了效率变化的影响因素。结果显示:（1）2001~2016年间长江经济带旅游业碳排放效率的平均值为0.672，距离最佳生产前沿面还存在32.8%的提升空间。研究期内其旅游业碳排放效率ML指数均值为1.092，年均增长9.2%。不同时期的效率变化值表现出较大的波动性；（2）长江经济带旅游业碳排放效率的时空分异特征明显，上游地区呈现出低效率、低增长的特征，中游地区表现为中效率、高增长的特点，下游地区则呈现出高效率、中增长的特征；（3）长江经济带旅游业碳排放效率的增长主要源于技术水平的进步，技术效率对旅游业碳排放效率的贡献相对较小。不同区域旅游业碳排放效率变化的影响因素差异较大。