层次可拓法在层状围岩隧道风险评估中的应用

运用层次分析法和可拓学理论对层状围岩隧道洞口段进行安全评价。提出浅水平层状围岩地质条件下隧道洞口段施工风险评估的指标体系;分析影响浅水平层状岩体稳定性、隧道洞口段施工坍塌的不利因素,并对此进行风险层次分级。结合实例进行评价与分析,经计算安全等级判定为严重,计算结果与现场情况一致,改变施工方法后,隧道安全进洞。     

山岭隧道施工中塌方风险评估模型研究及应用

为评估隧道施工中塌方风险,以确定其可能性及严重程度作为2条主线。由文献调研并结合待评估隧道风险特征、施工现状、工程概况等建立塌方可能性评估指标体系,运用层次分析法(AHP)与多层次模糊综合决策确定塌方风险事件可能性等级,定性指标由专家评判确定对各可能性等级的隶属度,定量指标的隶属度以正态分布作为隶属函数求出;综合考虑多种事故后果类型,选用当量估计法确定塌方风险事件严重程度;最后基于风险矩阵法确定隧道塌方风险等级。将本模型应用于兴隆隧道1号斜井,经评估该斜井塌方风险等级为Ⅲ级,即较大风险,后续施工中须采取有效措施降低风险,减少风险可能导致的损失。     

山岭地区铁路隧道施工安全风险评估及管理研究——以贵广铁路客运专线金宝顶隧道为例

针对山岭地区隧道工程规模越来越大,地质条件日益复杂、技术要求越来越高、施工难度也越来越大等特点,以新建贵阳至广州铁路客运专线金宝顶隧道为工程背景,采用“层次分析法”对隧道施工安全进行风险评估.通过建立风险源的层次树状图,有针对性采取隧道施工安全风险管理控制技术,为降低事故发生的可能性和控制风险事故后果损失提供了技术指导.结合金宝顶隧道风险管理的实例,对基于层次分析法的施工安全风险评估的实际运用进行总结,提出了主要的危险源和应该采取的风险控制措施,以其为同类工程提供有益借鉴.     

铁路隧道TBM施工风险评估

采用基于熵权的模糊综合评估模型对西秦岭特长铁路隧道TBM施工风险进行分析,识别关键风险因素并提出施工应对策略。首先结合西秦岭隧道项目工程特点,参照《铁路隧道风险评估与管理暂行规定》进行TBM施工风险识别,将其归结为设备风险、掘进风险、辅助工序风险三大方面,对每个方面细分出4项一级风险因素。接着确定各层次风险因素权重:借助专家调查确定一级风险发生的概率等级,运用熵权法确定底层风险权重;运用层次分析法确定三大方面风险权重。最后建立二级模糊综合评判模型,评估西秦岭铁路隧道右线的施工风险等级。通过现场专家调查得到的一级风险因素后果损失等级表建立一级评判隶属度矩阵,进行一级模糊评判;并将结果作为二级评判因素的评价集,进行第二级综合评判,评定该项目为2级风险。同时借助熵权反映底层各风险因素的重要程度,确定关键风险因素并判断其风险等级,提出施工应对措施。     

基于模糊-熵权理论的铁路瓦斯隧道施工安全风险评估

针对含瓦斯地层隧道施工难度大、安全风险高等特点,提出采用熵值法和模糊理论相结合的方法进行铁路瓦斯隧道施工安全风险评估.为评估铁路瓦斯隧道施工安全风险,结合兴泉铁路某隧道工程,详细分析了隧道施工安全的影响因素,在此基础上构建了铁路瓦斯隧道施工安全风险评价体系,采用熵权理论确定了各层次风险影响因子权重,进而基于模糊数学理论构建了铁路瓦斯隧道施工安全风险评估模型,并对各影响因素逐层进行计算,得出铁路瓦斯隧道施工的事故可能性等级为3级,即可能出现风险.评估结果可靠,符合工程实际,可供类似工程参考.     

基于模糊层次综合评判法的集气站安全评价

集气站是天然气集输系统的重要组成部分,其安全性和稳定性是保证天然气输送的前提。根据气田集气站的现场生产实际情况,从人员-环境-管理-设备及管线4个方面构建集气站安全评价指标体系,应用模糊层次综合评判法建立4级模糊综合评判模型,对集气站的本质安全生产状况进行评价。基于此方法开发了"采气厂区域安全评估系统"软件,通过该软件计算集气站本质安全程度,并根据评价结果提出相应的整改和建议措施。将软件应用于苏里格气田第五采气厂。结果表明,将模糊层次综合评判法作为集气站安全评价方法是实用有效的。     

江苏省临水区域化工企业事故后果的模糊综合评判

根据江苏省临水区域化工企业的实际情况,采用二级模糊综合评判方法评估其可能发生化工事故的后果严重程度,选取人员伤亡、经济损失和环境影响作为评判指标.运用层次分析法确定各因素的权重集,选定隶属函数后根据该权重集即可运用模糊综合评判方法判定事故后果的严重程度.     

模糊综合评价在焦化企业安全评价中的应用

结合焦化企业生产单元事故发生的特点,运用模糊综合评判理论,对焦化企业生产单元安全系统进行分析。综合考虑影响焦化企业生产单元安全的各种因素,确定焦化企业生产单元安全评价指标体系。采用层次分析法确定权重可以保证得出的焦化企业生产单元安全模糊综合评价模型更具有有效性。     

基于模糊层次分析法的地铁工程施工安全评价

目前我国正处于城市地铁建设的高潮期,由于城市轨道交通工程具有建设周期短、地下条件复杂等特点,所以地铁工程施工安全事故时有发生.基于这一现状,首先以住建部颁布的《地铁施工安全评价标准》为依据,构建地铁施工安全评价指标体系,利用层次分析法,建立指标权重集;确定单个评判对象对备择集的隶属程度,得到单因素评价集;然后建立模糊综合评判集,对地铁施工安全进行评价;最后结合实例进行了实证研究.     

基于模糊评判的地下综合管廊运维不安全行为风险评估

为了提高对施工安全的认识,本文建立了基于模糊评判的地下综合管廊运维不安全行为风险评估模型,并开展了实例分析。研究结果表明：以模糊评判方法对地下综合管廊运维不安全行为进行风险评价,可以充分发挥模糊评判的清晰层次与高精度隶属度分析的优势,实现灰色关联所需样本量少,快速完成复杂关系分析。     

油浸变压器排油注氮装置在500kV变电站的设计与应用

在分析500kV变电站主变压器消防系统的现状,比较3类消防系统优缺点的基础上,详细论述了主变排油注氮装置的结构组成、工作原理、参数计算、控制系统设计以及需要注意的事项等,为下一步排油注氮装置的推广应用打下基础.     

HAZOP结合What-if方法在某延迟焦化装置除焦中的应用

为克服传统危险与可操作性（HAZOP）定性分析方法在复杂操作、间歇作业等过程中使用的局限性,提出在传统HAZOP定性分析方法的基础上结合What-if（故障假设）方法,对人的不安全行为和操作规程不完备所导致的风险后果分析作出补充。详细说明其技术原理、工作流程等使用细节,系统阐述该方法与传统HAZOP定性分析方法的区别,并在某延迟焦化装置的除焦操作的风险分析中应用。经分析,识别出在“给水-泡焦”节点,有“操作规程错误”场景2项,“操作规程不具体”场景1项,不存在“操作人员未按操作规程执行”场景。研究结果表明:本文方法有效且具有较好效果,可以广泛应用于操作规程/作业指导书审查、作业过程隐患排查等方面,帮助企业开展操作层面的风险识别与管理,提升企业的生产安全水平。     

Nighttime pedestrian fatalities: A comprehensive examination of infrastructure,user, vehicle,and situational factors

Introduction: Pedestrian fatalities in the United States increased 45.5% between 2009 and 2017. More than 85% of those additional pedestrian fatalities occurred at night. Method: We examine Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data for fatal pedestrian crashes that occurred in the dark between 2002 and 2017. Within-variable and before/after examinations of crashes in terms of infrastructure, user, vehicle, and situational characteristics are performed with one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and two-sample t-tests. We model changes in crash characteristic proportions between 2002–2009 and 2010–2017 using linear regressions and test for autocorrelation with Breusch-Godfrey tests. Results: The increase in fatal nighttime pedestrian crashes is most strongly correlated with infrastructure factors: non-intersection unmarked locations (saw 80.8% of additional fatalities); 40–45 mph roads (54.6%); five-lane roads (40.7%); urban (99.7%); and arterials (81.1%). In addition, SUVs were involved in 39.7% of additional fatalities, overrepresenting their share of the fleet. Increased pedestrian alcohol and drug involvement warrant further investigation. The age of pedestrians killed increased more (18.1%) than the national average (3.2%). Conclusions: By identifying factors related to the increase in nighttime pedestrian fatalities, this work constitutes a vital first step in making our streets safer for pedestrians. Practical Applications: More research is needed to understand the efficacy of different solutions, but this paper provides guidance for such future research. Engineering solutions such as road diets or traffic calming may be used to improve identified infrastructure issues by reducing vehicle speeds and road widths. Rethinking vehicle design, especially high front profiles, may improve vehicle issues. However, the problems giving rise to these pedestrian fatalities are likely a result of not only engineering issues but also interrelated social and political factors. Solutions may be correspondingly comprehensive, employing non-linear, systems-based approaches such as Safe Systems.     

潞安矿区煤层渗透率的各向异性特征实验研究

为了研究原位煤体渗透性的各向异性特征,以山西潞安常村矿3号煤层圆柱试样为对象,利用TCQT-Ⅲ型低渗煤层气相驱替增产试验装置,对煤样进行加载,并以氮气注入压力2.0 MPa的条件下,分析垂直层理和平行层理2个方向的煤体变形和渗透率变化特征。实验结果表明:煤样在加载过程中,平行和垂直层理煤样渗透率均随着有效应力的增大而减小,平行层理方向的渗透率始终大于垂直层理方向,应力加载初期渗透率急剧下降,最后逐渐趋于平缓;径向应变的增加量与渗透率呈正相关性,且平行层理相关性大于垂直层理;沿平行层理方向的裂隙度大于沿垂直层理方向,沿垂直层理方向的应变量大于沿平行层理方向;应变增加量均随有效应力的增加而逐渐减小。研究结果可为煤层井网布置及优化提供参考。     

森林地表火蔓延模拟方法及其计算机实现

进行了森林火蔓延的研究,对传统的经验公式和模型进行改进,明显发现改进的模型有更好的结果,用计算机巧妙准确地实现了模拟模型,在风力不是特别大,地形变化不是特别剧烈时,该模型有较高精度;并结合火蔓延的主要因素（气象因子、气候、地形等）,进行系统分析,写出算地,编制实现地表火蔓延的预测预报计算机系统软件。这对于有效的组织扑救、减少火灾损失、计算森林火灾的损失评估有重要意义。     

Footedness and Mounting—Short Review and Two Case Studies

Footedness is a personal quality like handedness. Footedness may be associated with moving ability during mounting, dismounting, and jumping movements. Occupational accidents have occurred during movement at different working levels, during the use of access and exit systems, and during the mounting of vehicles. Aging can also affect accident risk and body laterality. For example, falling accidents on stairs are common among the elderly. One reason for accidents may be that the structure of the access system or stair system is unsuitable for individual moving patterns depending partly on body laterality. Footedness and the way the feet are used may be contradictory to the demands of the moving situation, especially during uncommon or rapid situations. This contradiction may trigger disturbance during moving. The aims of this pilot study were (a) to review the literature briefly and (b) to describe the use of the dominant and nondominant foot by farmers and the elderly when mounting a tractor and stairs, respectively. The study also gives ideas for future studies based on both (a) and (b).     

AHP与GA-SVM耦合模型在滑坡预警中的应用*

为了减少滑坡造成的损失,提高滑坡预测的准确性,通过搭建灾害模拟平台获得滑坡的实验数据,在获得多组模拟实验数据后,分析各变量的特性。首先,通过层次分析(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)算法,对滑坡进行危险度划分;然后,通过支持向量机(Support Vector Machine,SVM)建立模型,遗传算法(Genetic Algorithm,GA)再优化SVM参数,提出1种层次分析法与GA-SVM相耦合的模型。研究结果表明:AHP方法划分后的数据,通过GA与SVM结合建立的模型精度较好,实验预测结果与实际结果较为吻合,与单一SVM相比,精度更高,结果更好,更加适用于多变量的复杂非线性滑坡预警。     

Debunking the false dichotomy of leadership idealism and pragmatism: Critical evaluation and support of newer genre leadership theories

Leadership theories have shifted over the last few decades from a focus on managerial functions and economic leader–follower exchanges toward greater focus on the interpersonal dynamics occurring within the leadership process. Theories such as transformational, ethical, authentic, and other “newer genre” theories were created to address neglected topics such as leader vision and inspirational messages, transparency, emotional effects, morality, individualized attention, and intellectual stimulation. Critiques of these theories, however, have been raised. In this paper, we address five of those critiques and argue for the validity and practical effectiveness of the new genre theories. Further, we describe how newer genre leadership research should be viewed as a performative epistemology, entailing a process of co‐creation involving scholars and practitioners. Finally, from this view, we provide general ideas for leader development. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Occupational Safety and Health in Finland

In Finland, occupational safety is the responsibility of the employer, while the occupational safety and health laws are enforced by the Labour Inspection Service, an organization of the state. The Labour Inspection is divided in 11 administrative districts, and it employs 360 professionals. They are mandated to carry out site visits without prearranged appointments to inspect safe work situations, working hours, construction safety, or any aspect of accident risks. The inspectors are also mandated to verify the existence of sufficient occupational health services as prescribed by the Occupational Health Services Act for all employees. The occupational health services are typically provided by enterprise-owned medical departments, by mutually owned health care centers, by private practitioners, or by municipal health care centers. The latter are required by law to provide all services as prescribed by the legislation to anyone who comes to the facility. This situation is prevalent in the countryside, where there are very few private caregiving centers. Declaring occupational accidents and disease cases is mandatory, and the Inspection districts examine all accidents to establish causes and consequences, and to initiate prosecution in case of criminal negligence. Labour Inspection Districts are also notified of the new occupational disease cases as they are declared to insurance companies. Insurance for occupational disease, accidents, and death is an obligation of the employer, although they can choose the insurance company. The medical confidentiality between the workers and their occupational health care providers is very strict. Official statistics are maintained by the state Statistics Finland organization, and they may be used, for example, for research purposes by scientific institutes like the Finnish Institute of Occupational Health. Construction industry accounts for 25% of all fatal accidents (120 cases per 1 million working hours), followed by mechanical, wood, metal, machinery, and pulp and paper industry (10% each of fatal accidents) with rates ranging from 100–160 cases per 1 million working hours. There are some 5,000 occupational disease cases per year (rate 22/10,000 employed). The major disease categories include repetitive strain injuries (1,300 cases), respiratory allergies (600 cases), occupational skin diseases (1,000 cases), and 900 cases of noise-caused hearing loss. In 1998, 589 cases of asbestos-related diseases were reported.     

公路隧道火灾逃生疏散研究

以苍岭隧道为背景,首先采用经验计算理论和计算软件building EXODUS相结合的方式,从被困人员的安全疏散时间、高温烟气的影响、隧道横通道的利用率以及人员的疏散行为特性进行了研究。结果表明:中小规模火灾情况下的安全疏散时间控制在8 min之内,高温烟气影响不大,但横通道的利用率不平均,且人员疏散路线相对集中。然后对存在的逃生疏散问题提出针对性建议以及其他相关建议,旨在为更大程度降低事故的严重性和经济财产损失。