Assessing the health risk of reuse of bottom ash in road paving

Although the reuse of bottom ash has been favored gradually, reflected on regulations and researches, the associated risk is still an issue of great concern. This study quantified the health risks from multimedia transport and multi-pathway exposure to the concerned chemicals as a result of reusing bottom ash in road paving with consideration of various application scenarios. In particular, the using duration of the pavement was taken into consideration because movement of chemicals in the soils and groundwater would affect the subsequent exposure and risk. By using soil and groundwater transport modeling linked to food chain exposure assessment and incorporating the Monte Carlo method, the study identified Cr as the crucial toxicant and ingestion of drinking water and vegetables as the key exposure pathways. Furthermore, control of the using duration of road pavement is an essential factor of management and regulations to minimize the leaching of the hazardous constituents into the groundwater and subsequent contamination of food chain.     

Setting information priorities for remediation decisions at a contaminated-groundwater site.

Many sites of contamination due to inappropriate disposal of hazardous materials or wastes have been found. These sites have the potential of damaging the environment and human health and thus need to be evaluated as to whether and what actions should be initiated. In the decision on whether a contaminated site should be subject to management, the knowledge concerning important parameters that would influence the decision will be beneficial to planning of data collection to support the decision. This paper presents a case study of contaminated site located in northern Taiwan, where the groundwater is contaminated by chlorinated hydrocarbons including trichloroethylene (TCE) and tetrachloroethylene (PCE). A site-specific multimedia risk assessment is performed to estimate the total risk resulting from the contamination. In addition, Monte Carlo simulation, rank correlation coefficients, and decision criteria are combined to develop a methodology for assessing the important of parameters in terms of their influence on the decision. It is found that TCE concentration, vegetable yield, deposition interception fraction of vegetables, and plant surface loss constant, are the four parameters important to the decision-making of the case problem.     

The Sensitivity of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Results to Alternative Model Structures: A Case Study of Municipal Waste Incineration

Abstract

In this analysis, human health risk due to exposure to municipal waste incinerator emissions is assessed as an example of the application of probabilistic techniques (e.g., Monte Carlo or Latin Hypercube simulations). Incinerator risk assessments are characterized by the dominance of indirect exposure, thus this analysis focuses on exposure via the ingestion of locally grown foods. In addition, since exposure to 2, 3, 7, 8-TCDD drives most incinerator risk assessments, this compound is the subject of the illustrative calculations. An important part of probabilistic risk assessment is determining the relative influence of the input parameters on the magnitude of the variance in the output distribution. This constitutes an important step toward prioritizing data needs for additional research. However, under various possible model forms reflecting incompletely understood aspects of contaminant transport, differences may be observed in estimates of risk, variance in risk, and the relative contributions of individual uncertain and variable inputs to the variance. In this analysis, a sequential structural decomposition of the relationships between the input variables is used to partition the variance in the output (i.e., risk) to identify the most influential contributors to overall variance among them. For comparison, the partitioning of variance is repeated, using techniques of multivariate regression. In summary, this study considers the degree to which results of a probabilistic assessment are contingent on critical model assumptions about the representation of deposition velocity. Specifically, this analysis assesses the impact on the results of uncertainty about the best model of the vapor/particle partitioning behavior of semi-volatile airborne pollutants.     

Site-specific risk assessment in contaminated vegetable gardens

A field survey was carried on in Gy?ngy?soroszi, Hungary, near to an abandoned lead/zinc mine to analyse the metal contamination of flooded and non-flooded vegetable gardens, and to evaluate the health risks to local population. Contamination levels of arsenic, cadmium, lead, mercury and zinc were measured in soil and homegrown vegetable samples and bioconcentration factors and hazard indices were calculated. The high metal contents of flooded vegetable gardens were caused by floods, the results indicated significant differences between flooded and non-flooded vegetable gardens. The most accumulating vegetable was sorrel, the most mobile elements were cadmium and lead. Arsenic was not available for vegetables. The health risk was calculated for two exposure routes: ingestion of soil and ingestion of vegetables. The site-specific exposure parameters were established after a population based survey and a special equation was created to calculate the health risk due to homegrown vegetable consumption. The highest risk was associated with ingestion of vegetables, the most hazardous element being lead. The hazard index did not exceed the threshold value of one in flooded or non-flooded gardens. The analyses of health risk indicated that despite the high metal concentrations of soil the contamination of vegetable gardens does not pose an unacceptable risk to the inhabitants of the village.     

Analysis of the health risk of exposure to breast milk mercury in infants in Taiwan

The aim of this study was to assess the total concentration and health risk to infants of breast milk mercury in urban mothers and mothers married to fishermen in relation to fish intake in Taiwan. A total of sixty-eight healthy mothers were recruited for the study. The breast milk mercury geometric mean concentration was 2.02 microgl(-1) (n=56, range: 0.24-9.45 microgl(-1)) for the city group and 2.04 microgl(-1) (n=12, range: 0.26-8.62 microgl(-1)) for the fishermen's group. Of the three sources of mercury exposure (i.e., ingestion (breast milk), inhalation (ambient air), and dermal exposure (shower)), breast-feeding was found to be the largest (96.3-99.6% of the total). From a Monte Carlo simulation, in which methyl mercury accounted for about 50% of total mercury, the hazard quotient (exposure estimate/oral minimal risk level or target organ toxicity dose) exceeded 1.0 for 12.9% of urban babies and 18.8% of fishermen's babies (chronic oral minimal risk level and target organ toxicity dose: 3 x 10(-4)mgkg(-1)d(-1)). The calculated mercury exposure was 3.02 x 10(-1) microgkg(-1)d(-1) for a 3.49 kg urban baby boy and 3.06 x 10(-1) microgkg(-1)d(-1) for a 3.44 kg urban baby girl. These results suggest the life style of mothers (eating raw fish and shellfish such as used in "Sashimi" and "Sushi," and vitamin supplementation) may influence the mercury concentration in breast milk.     

Model comparison for risk assessment: a case study of contaminated groundwater

Many environmental multimedia risk assessment models have been developed and widely used along with increasing sophistication of the risk assessment method. Despite of the considerable improvement, uncertainty remains a primary threat to the credibility of and users' confidence in the model-based risk assessments. In particular, it has been indicated that scenario and model uncertainty may affect significantly the assessment outcome. Furthermore, the uncertainty resulting from choosing different models has been shown more important than that caused by parameter uncertainty. Based on the relationship between exposure pathways and estimated risk results, this study develops a screening procedure to compare the relative suitability between potential multimedia models, which would facilitate the reduction of uncertainty due to model selection. MEPAS, MMSOILS, and CalTOX models, combined with Monte Carlo simulation, are applied to a realistic groundwater-contaminated site to demonstrate the process. It is also shown that the identification of important parameters and exposure pathways, and implicitly, the subsequent design of uncertainty reduction and risk management measures, would be better-formed.     

Pesticide residues intake of French adults under increased consumption of fresh fruits and vegetables – A theoretical study

The increase of fresh vegetable and fruit (FVF) intake could contribute to the prevention of obesity and several major pathologies and thus represents a major public health goal in industrial countries. Nutritional recommendations for increased consumption of FVF could lead to ingestion of unwanted amounts of pesticides. This study was undertaken to evaluate theoretical exposure of French adults to pesticide residues under increasing amounts of FVF intake. Balanced menus with 200 – 400 – 600 – 800 and 1200 g FVF/day were established. Amounts of active substances brought by every FVF vector, at the maximum residue level (MRL) were summed up to determine the intake for each active substance. Values were compared to the Acceptable Daily Intake (ADI) to point out any potential over exposure. A maximalistic approach was adopted and no reducing factor due to processing was taken into account. It was found that under minimal recommended consumption of fruit and vegetables (400 g/d), no active substance reached the ADI, but 18 vs 144 were over 10% of the ADI. Raising FVF to 600 g/d increased the number of active substances over 10 % of the ADI to 24, but again in no case was the ADI exceeded. Doubling the intake to 800 g/d gives values over the ADI for 2 active substances only (cyhexatin and thirame). It was concluded that the increase in fruit and vegetables up to 800 g per day should not expose adults over the ADIs for a majority of authorized pesticides. In this regard, residues levels of ten active substances in fruit and vegetables should deserve particular attention.     

Use of Probabilistic Methods to Understand the Conservatism in California’s Approach to Assessing Health Risks Posed by Air Contaminants

Many state and federal agencies have prepared risk assessment guidelines, which describe methods for quantifying health risks associated with exposure to vapors and particulates emitted from point and area sources (e.g., California Air Pollution Control Officers Association [CAPCOA] under the Air Toxics “Hot Spots” Act [Assembly Bill 2588] and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [EPA] under the Clean Air Act). In general, these guidelines recommend or require the use of upper bound “point” estimates for numerous exposure parameters. This methodology yields a single risk estimate, which is intended not to underestimate the true risk and may significantly overstate it. This paper describes a risk assessment of a facility’s airborne emissions using a probabilistic approach, which presents a range and distribution of risk estimates rather than a single point estimate. The health risks to residents living near a food processing facility, as estimated using techniques recommended by California AB2588, are compared to the results of a probabilistic analysis. Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) were identified as the emitted chemicals of concern. The point estimate method recommended by CAPCOA resulted in estimates that were greater than the 99.99th percentile risk predicted by the probabilistic analysis. As shown in other assessments of persistent airborne chemicals, secondary or indirect exposure pathways (i.e., ingestion of beef, ingestion of cow’s milk, and ingestion of mother’s milk) rather than inhalation, were the greatest contributors to risk. In this analysis, the probability distributions for the cancer potency factor and ingestion of cow’s milk had the largest impact on the results of the 33 exposure factors considered.     

Estimation of acceptable mercury intake from fish in Taiwan

The US Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) and Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) are advising women and young children to avoid eating fish that contain high levels of mercury (Hg). However in Taiwan, the annual Black Fin Tuna Festival encourages the public to consume fish. The aim of this study was to assess fish intake in relation to the health risks of mercury exposure and calculate the acceptable and safe intake of fish in children and women of childbearing age. From the Monte Carlo simulation, based on USEPA's reference dose (0.1 microgkg(-1)d(-1)), we found that 21.6%-24.3% and 45.6%-57.4% of the daily mercury dose estimates exceeded the reference dose for typical and high-seafood consumers. The acceptable ingestion rates are <50 g d(-1) (children) and 90.8 +/- 15.7 g d(-1) (women of childbearing). Sensitivity analysis suggests that Hg concentration in fish may be a key parameter to aid governments as they offer guidance for risk management.     

Risk-based evaluation of the exposure of children to trace elements in playgrounds in Madrid (Spain)

Eighty samples of sandy substrate were collected in November 2002 and 2003, from 20 municipal playgrounds in Madrid (Spain) to assess the potential adverse health effects of the exposure of children to trace elements in this material during their games. In each playground, two 500 g samples were collected, dried at 45 degrees C for 48 h, sieved below 100 microm, acid digested and analyzed by ICP-MS. Doses contacted through ingestion and inhalation and the dose absorbed through the skin were calculated using USEPAs hourly exposure parameters for children and the results of an in situ survey. The toxicity values considered in this study were mostly taken from the US DoEs RAIS compilation. The results of the risk assessment indicate that the highest risk is associated with ingestion of soil particles and that the trace element of most concern is arsenic, the exposure to which results in a cancer risk value of 4.19 x 10(-6), close to the 1 x 10(-5) probability level deemed unacceptable by most regulatory agencies. Regarding non-cancer effects, exposure to playground substrate yields an aggregate Hazard Index of 0.28, below the threshold value of 1 (with As, again, as the largest single contributor, followed by Pb, Cr, Al and Mn). Although the uncertainties associated with the estimates of toxicity values and exposure factors should be reduced before any definite conclusions regarding potential health effects are drawn, risk assessment has proven to be a very useful tool to identify the contaminants and exposure pathways of most concern in urban environments.     

Assessing the inhalation cancer risk of particulate matter bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) for the elderly in a retirement community of a mega city in North China

Assessment of the health risks resulting from exposure to ambient polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is limited by the lack of environmental exposure data among different subpopulations. To assess the exposure cancer risk of particulate carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon pollution for the elderly, this study conducted a personal exposure measurement campaign for particulate PAHs in a community of Tianjin, a city in northern China. Personal exposure samples were collected from the elderly in non-heating (August–September, 2009) and heating periods (November–December, 2009), and 12 PAHs individuals were analyzed for risk estimation. Questionnaire and time-activity log were also recorded for each person. The probabilistic risk assessment model was integrated with Toxic Equivalent Factors (TEFs). Considering that the estimation of the applied dose for a given air pollutant is dependent on the inhalation rate, the inhalation rate from both EPA exposure factor book was applied to calculate the carcinogenic risk in this study. Monte Carlo simulation was used as a probabilistic risk assessment model, and risk simulation results indicated that the inhalation-ILCR values for both male and female subjects followed a lognormal distribution with a mean of 4.81?×?10^?6 and 4.57?×?10^?6, respectively. Furthermore, the 95 % probability lung cancer risks were greater than the USEPA acceptable level of 10^?6 for both men and women through the inhalation route, revealing that exposure to PAHs posed an unacceptable potential cancer risk for the elderly in this study. As a result, some measures should be taken to reduce PAHs pollution and the exposure level to decrease the cancer risk for the general population, especially for the elderly.     

Source apportionment of exposures to volatile organic compounds. I. Evaluation of receptor models using simulated exposure data

Four receptor-oriented source apportionment models were evaluated by applying them to simulated personal exposure data for select volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that were generated by Monte Carlo sampling from known source contributions and profiles. The exposure sources modeled are environmental tobacco smoke, paint emissions, cleaning and/or pesticide products, gasoline vapors, automobile exhaust, and wastewater treatment plant emissions. The receptor models analyzed are chemical mass balance, principal component analysis/absolute principal component scores, positive matrix factorization (PMF), and graphical ratio analysis for composition estimates/source apportionment by factors with explicit restriction, incorporated in the UNMIX model. All models identified only the major contributors to total exposure concentrations. PMF extracted factor profiles that most closely represented the major sources used to generate the simulated data. None of the models were able to distinguish between sources with similar chemical profiles. Sources that contributed <5% to the average total VOC exposure were not identified.     

Fate and contaminant transport model-driven probabilistic human health risk assessment of DNAPL-contaminated site

In this study, fate and contaminant transport model-driven human health risk indexes were calculated due to the presence of dense non-aqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) in the subsurface environment of air force base area in Florida, USA. Source concentration data of DNAPLs was used for the calculation of transport model-driven health risk indexes for the children and adult sub-population via direct oral ingestion and skin dermal contact exposure scenario using 10,000 Monte Carlo type simulations. The highest variation in the probability distribution of transformed DNAPL compound (cis-dichloroethene (cis-DCE) > vinyl chloride (VC)) was observed as compared to parent DNAPL (tetrachloroethene (PCE)) based on the 50-year simulation timespan. Transformed DNAPL compounds (VC, cis-DCE) posed the highest risk to human health for a longer duration (up to 15 years) in comparison to parent DNAPL (PCE), as non-carcinogenic hazard quotient varied from 400 to 1100. Carcinogenic health risks were observed as 3-order of magnitude higher than safe limit (HQ_Safe < 10⁻⁶) from 2nd to 5th year timespan and fall in the high-risk zone, indicating the need for a remediation plan for a contaminated site. Variance attribution analysis revealed that concentration, body weight, and exposure duration (contribution percentage – 70 to 95%) were the most important parameters, highlighting the impact of dispersivity and exposure model in the estimation of risk indexes. This approach can help decision-makers when a contaminated site with partial data on hydrogeological properties and with higher uncertainty in model parameters is to be assessed for the formulation of remediation measures.

     

Human intake of PCDDs, PCDFs, and dioxin like PCBs in Japan, 2001 and 2002

PCDDs, PCDFs, and dioxin like PCBs (dioxin) surveillance results derived from regular environmental monitoring as well as other dioxin surveys by national and local governmental bodies in Japan were collected and analyzed. Several thousand data for air and soil in fiscal year 2001 (from 01/04/2001 to 31/03/2002) and 2002, water (from the sea, rivers and lakes), sediment (from the sea, rivers and lakes), ground water, aquatic organisms, purified water from water purification plants, raw water from water purification plants, human breast milk, and human blood in fiscal 2001, and total diet study (TDS) and various kinds of foodstuff in fiscal 1998-2002 were collected. Average human uptake of dioxin in Japan in fiscal 2001 was estimated at 1.68 pg-TEQ/kg-bw/day, while uptake in fiscal 2002 was estimated at 1.52 pg-TEQ/kg-bw/day. Diet accounted for more than 90% of the total intake. Contributions of inhalation and soil ingestion were relatively small. Age-group-specific contribution of various foodstuff to total dietary intake was also estimated. The estimates of intake through fish and shellfish accounted for approximately 45-70% of total dietary intake in each age group. Monte Carlo simulation was conducted, using the data of the air and soil concentrations in fiscal 2001 and the total diet study data in fiscal 1998-2001, in order to obtain information on the variability of dioxin intake; The estimated average, median, 5th percentile and 95th percentile of the intake distribution were 1.78, 1.69, 0.95 and 2.91 pg-TEQ/kg-bw/day, respectively. This study found that the average total intake estimates in Japan in both fiscal 2001 and 2002 were estimated to be below tolerable daily intake level (TDI) defined by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (i.e. 4 pg-TEQ/kg-bw/day). The 95th percentile of the dioxin intake distributions estimated with Monte Carlo simulation using the data of the air and soil concentrations in fiscal 2001 and TDS data in fiscal 1998-2001 was also below the Japanese TDI.     

Health risk assessment of exposure to organic matter from the use of reclaimed water in toilets

To estimate the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks of six volatile organic compounds (VOCs) found in reclaimed water used for flushing toilets, a probabilistic health risk assessment based on Monte Carlo simulations was used. Before Monte Carlo simulations, the contaminant volatilization model was applied to estimate the concentration of the pollutants in air. Moreover, a questionnaire was used to acquire daily exposure time and the Batch Fit tool of Crystal Ball software was applied to find the best-fitting distribution of a part of the input parameters. The risk analysis indicated that the health risks from six VOCs were lower than the negligible risk level (1?×?10^?8) in all cases, and the health risk for females was slightly higher than that for males. Overall, exposure to organic pollutants in reclaimed water during toilet flushing does not currently pose a significant carcinogenic risk to humans. In this study, we want to provide some information on the health risk from reclaimed water used for toilet flushing in China and hope that it will be useful to promote the application of reclaimed water in water-deficient areas.     

Source estimation methods for atmospheric dispersion

Both forward and backward transport modeling methods are being developed for characterization of sources in atmospheric releases of toxic agents. Forward modeling methods, which describe the atmospheric transport from sources to receptors, use forward-running transport and dispersion models or computational fluid dynamics models which are run many times, and the resulting dispersion field is compared to observations from multiple sensors. Forward modeling methods include Bayesian updating and inference schemes using stochastic Monte Carlo or Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling techniques. Backward or inverse modeling methods use only one model run in the reverse direction from the receptors to estimate the upwind sources. Inverse modeling methods include adjoint and tangent linear models, Kalman filters, and variational data assimilation, among others.This survey paper discusses these source estimation methods and lists the key references. The need for assessing uncertainties in the characterization of sources using atmospheric transport and dispersion models is emphasized.     

Priority assessment of toxic substances in life cycle assessment. Part II: assessing parameter uncertainty and human variability in the calculation of toxicity potentials

Toxicity potentials are standard values used in life cycle assessment (LCA) to enable a comparison of toxic impacts between substances. This paper presents the results of an uncertainty assessment of toxicity potentials that were calculated with the global nested multi-media fate, exposure and effects model USES-LCA. The variance in toxicity potentials resulting from input parameter uncertainties and human variability was quantified by means of Monte Carlo analysis with Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS). For Atrazine, 2,3,7,8-TCDD and Lead, variation, expressed by the ratio of the 97.5%-ile and the 2.5%-ile, ranges from about 1.5 to 6 orders of magnitude. The major part of this variation originates from a limited set of substance-specific input parameters, i.e. parameters that describe transport mechanisms, substance degradation, indirect exposure routes and no-effect concentrations. Considerable correlations were found between the toxicity potentials of one substance, in particular within one impact category. The uncertainties and correlations reported in the present study may have a significant impact on the outcome of LCA case studies.     

Human health risk assessment of lead from mining activities at semi-arid locations in the context of total lead exposure

Lead from historical mining and mineral processing activities may pose potential human health risks if materials with high concentrations of bioavailable lead minerals are released to the environment. Since the Joint Expert Committee on Food Additives of Food and Agriculture Organization/World Health Organization withdrew the Provisional Tolerable Weekly Intake of lead in 2011, an alternative method was required for lead exposure assessment. This study evaluated the potential lead hazard to young children (0–7 years) from a historical mining location at a semi-arid area using the U.S. EPA Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) Model, with selected site-specific input data. This study assessed lead exposure via the inhalation pathway for children living in a location affected by lead mining activities and with specific reference to semi-arid conditions and made comparison with the ingestion pathway by using the physiologically based extraction test for gastro-intestinal simulation. Sensitivity analysis for major IEUBK input parameters was conducted. Three groups of input parameters were classified according to the results of predicted blood concentrations. The modelled lead absorption attributed to the inhalation route was lower than 2 % (mean?±?SE, 0.9 %?±?0.1 %) of all lead intake routes and was demonstrated as a less significant exposure pathway to children’s blood, compared with ingestion. Whilst dermal exposure was negligible, diet and ingestion of soil and dust were the dominant parameters in terms of children’s blood lead prediction. The exposure assessment identified the changing role of dietary intake when house lead loadings varied. Recommendations were also made to conduct comprehensive site-specific human health risk assessment in future studies of lead exposure under a semi-arid climate.     

A review of models for estimating terrestrial ecological receptor exposure to chemical contaminants

In instances where empirical measurements are not practicable, ecological risk assessments may rely on site-specific exposure models for estimating uptake of chemical contaminants. This paper presents, based on a review of the literature, a compilation of relatively simple quantitative models that can be combined to produce site- and species-specific first-order estimates of uptake of chemicals from abiotic media. These models have proved useful in providing order-of-magnitude estimates for screening and sample program design purposes. This paper intended as both a practical guide for choosing models to estimate terrestrial wildlife exposures and as a step toward development of a more comprehensive and standard approach to exposure assessment in terrestrial ecological receptors.     

Health risk analysis of PCDD/F emissions from MSW incineration: comparison of probabilistic and deterministic approaches

Incremental lifetime health risks due to polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/F) emitted from municipal waste incineration (MSWI) facilities were evaluated for resident population in the area of the plant. Risk assessment was performed through a multipathway combined probabilistic/deterministic approach for analyzing the effects of uncertainty and intrinsic variability of the main PCDD/F emission related parameters on final predicted values. Exposure through direct inhalation of contaminated air, soil ingestion, soil dermal contact and diet were considered, with the propagation of the variability of input parameters throughout the evaluation performed with Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The application to a case study representative of two different technological scenarios (modern facilities equipped with BAT - Best Available Technology - and older incinerators) in a location site typical of Northern Italy situation results in median values of the maximum individual excess risk on the order of 10(-9) and 10(-7) for most recent and older plant configurations, respectively. Corresponding ratios for the 90th and 10th percentile values are around 7 and 9. Individual risk estimates derived for the same scenarios from conventional deterministic approaches, where large conservative assumptions are normally adopted for compensating the lack of knowledge about uncertainty, are essentially comparable with maximum values resulting from the probabilistic approach, thus leading to situations with extreme and very low probabilities of occurrence. PCDD/F health risks from MSWI emissions might thus result largely overestimated if real emission characteristics are not properly considered in the assessment procedure. Sensitivity analysis for identifying the contribution of different input parameters on final predicted risk variance indicates, for the area considered in the simulation, a prevailing influence of PCDD/F stack concentration, with exposures arising from soil deposition phenomena substantially negligible: this latter result further points out the requirements for a very careful identification of base input data values for PCDD/F stack concentrations, at least for those situations where plants are located nearby urban areas.