Modeling the Hydroclimatic Disturbance of Soil Landscapes in the Southern Canadian Plains: The Problems of Scale and Place

The sensitivity of soil landscapes to climatic variability andhydroclimatic events can be expressed as a landscape change safety factor, the ratio of potential disturbance to resistance to change. The use of a geographic information system (GIS) enables the spatially-explicit modeling of landscape sensitivity, but also raises the risk of violating the characteristic scales of disturbance and resistance, because the GIS technically simplifies the extrapolation of models, and associated concepts, to landscapes and scales notrepresented by the digital data base. Embedding landscape sensitivity into hierarchy theory, the formal analysis of the hierarchical structure of complex systems, provides a conceptual framework for the transfer of models and variablesamong landscape scales. In the subhumid southern Canadian plains, major hydroclimatic events (strong winds, intense rain,rapid snow melt) cause much of the physical disturbance of soillandscapes and terrestrial ecosystems. Prolonged dry or wet weather influences the resistance of soil and vegetation to these events. The potential disturbance of soil landscapes therefore can be derived from the probabilities of extreme events and seasonal conditions, as recorded in instrumental and proxy climate records. This time series analysis can belinked to the modeling of landscape sensitivity by establishingthe probabilities of hydroclimatic events and climatic conditions which may exceed or lower the resistance of individual soil landscapes.