绿色投资对绿色福利的影响机制研究

提升居民绿色福利是满足人民日益增长的美好生活需要的重要体现,也是建设美丽中国的根本要求。基于此背景,从绿色投资的视角,探讨提升绿色福利的路径。首先,依据Lucas-Uzawa的两部门内生增长模型,构建绿色投资对绿色福利影响的理论分析框架;其次,利用1999—2014年省际面板数据,采用Super-SBM方法测定各地区绿色福利;最后,利用系统GMM方法,结合双重差分法(DID),实证分析了绿色投资对绿色福利的影响及传导途径。结果表明:①中国各省域绿色投资与绿色福利之间在1%显著水平上呈现出正向关系,绿色投资每增加100%,居民绿色福利增加1.21%。因此,政府应当采用差异化的利率,减免税收或增加补贴等方式促进绿色投资,积极引导资金流向绿色产业,从而提升公民的绿色福利。②教育程度在1%显著水平上与绿色福利正相关,大专以上学历人口占比每增加1%,绿色福利增加7.78%。因此,政府应该扩大教育支出,增强居民受教育程度,提高公民就业机会和收入待遇。③对外开放度在1%显著水平与绿色福利正相关,且开放程度每增加一个单位,居民绿色福利提高1.91%。对外开放程度越高,越有助于进出口,促进我国国民经济发展,有助于提升绿色福利。因此,政府应当进一步扩大开放,改善进出口产品结构,提高出口技术复杂度,限制高能耗高污染产品出口。④公众诉求与绿色福利在一定水平下显著负相关,绿色福利低的地方,居民表现出更强烈的诉求。因此,政府应鼓励居民积极有序参与环境决策和监管,减少公众诉求的滞后效应。企业与公民之间需要确立共同的绿色福利目标,构建政府主导下的居民绿色消费与企业绿色创新协同机制,提升公共服务质量,完善环境和经济协同发展,实现绿色福利提升的目的。     

Applying the GM(1,1) model to simulate and predict the ecological footprint values of Suzhou city,China

The ecological footprint value (abbreviated as EF) is the quantitative indicator on evaluating the sustainable development status of a region. How to simulate the EF’s trend with a long-time data series has been heatedly discussed. The economic development of Suzhou, one of the most developed cities in Yangtze Delta, China, has been accelerated in the past 20 years, and it is necessary to evaluate the influence of the socioeconomic growth on local natural resources. The EF values of Suzhou from 1999 to 2018 were calculated and simulated using both the ARIMA model and the GM(1,1) model. The ARIMA model has been used in the prediction of EF values in several cases. However, the EF data series of the city consisted of white noise and could not be fitted by the ARIMA model. The GM(1,1) model, an approach forecasting nonlinear data series, was not found in the studies of the EF simulation. Through the model precision test, the GM(1,1) model introduced fit the EF data series well and was considered to be appropriate to simulate the EF values for Suzhou. The fitting performance was accurate, and the EF values of the city could be forecasted by the model in short term. With the proposed model, the ecological sustainability status of the city was analyzed.

     

基于市场表现的中国新能源汽车产业发展政策剖析

发展新能源汽车作为应对能源与环境问题的有效解决方式之一,受到世界各国的重视。中国政府对于新能源汽车产业的发展非常重视,在中央政府层面也提出了多项促进新能源汽车产业发展的相关政策,特别是将产业发展放到国家发展战略的高度。文章在梳理和分类2001-2015年中国新能源汽车产业发展政策(国家层面)、全面展示产业政策的时间演进与变化趋势的基础上,应用产业链分析的方法,按照研发、生产、销售和使用的顺序,选取新能源汽车产业的技术专利数据、产销量数据和商业模式等指标,将中国新能源汽车产业的市场表现与政策进行关联,构建中国新能源汽车产业市场表现与产业政策关联分析框架。然后,在搜集相关市场数据的基础上,采用该分析框架分别从技术专利、产销量和商业模式三个方面对市场表现和产业政策的关联关系进行深入剖析,发现随着产业政策数量与力度的增加,三个方面的市场表现整体均呈现出快速发展的趋势,且技术创新与商业模式创新的战略方向与发展路径均与政策导向基本一致。最后,文章对推广应用补贴和免征车辆购置税的政策变化和影响进行了相关讨论,讨论结果表明随着两项典型政策调整与退坡,国家逐步释放市场信号,显示出政策支持形式与内容在发生变化,特别是体现出对产业技术创新和商业模式创新领域的重视。本文的研究表明:中国已经构建起较为完善的新能源汽车产业发展政策体系,政策体系与市场表现之间存在强关联关系,对新能源汽车产业的技术专利、产品产销量、以及商业模式等市场表现方面起到重要的引领作用;伴随着中国新能源汽车产业政策的调整,提升产业竞争力、占据产业发展新方向将成为产业下一步重点关注的方向。     

基于环境介质的生态底线指标体系构建及考核评价

建立反映维护基本生态系统服务和生态安全的考核指标体系,量化生态环境保护绩效评估,形成环境污染控制和环境质量改善的倒逼机制,对于促进环保目标从单一目标向双目标的实现具有重要的战略意义。文章从解析生态底线的内涵和表征着手,基于环境介质,选取大气、水体、植被、土壤、能源5个方面共17项指标,构成生态底线指标体系的基本框架。提出评估模型和方法,通过测量值与底线值的比较,反映环境保护和生态建设的实际绩效,考虑到各行政区各功能区的生态特点及环境初始状态的差异,引入历史数据进行修正,对单个指标及综合绩效分为优良、改善、恶化、极差四个基本等级进行考核鉴定。不同于以往许多以污染物排放控制作为指标体系的思路和地方实践,所建立的生态底线指标体系更关注生态环境的本底条件,指标测度从常规的过程和终端标准转向自然生态环境的质量状况,有效化解污染排放都达标,但环境质量日益恶化的难题。建议各地结合当地特点明确本地区的生态底线,加强各参与部门的交流协调以提供全面而一致的统计与监测信息,加强信息发布平台的建设等基础工作;处理好底线考核机制与原有年度考核机制的关系,生态底线考核结果与相应的奖惩制度和晋升制度等挂钩,将其作为领导干部选拔任用及"五好"班子评选的重要依据;加强配套制度的建设;建立公众参与的相关机制。     

Research from global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to sustainability science based on the object-subject-process framework

Since United Nations adopted the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for the next 15 years (2016–2030), sustainable development will further become a core concept and main principle to guide global and national economic and social development. According to this background, strengthening the integrative research on the theories and methodologies of sustainable development has been a strategically important mission. This article provided an analytic framework for sustainability science, named the object-subject-process (OSP) framework for examining the key issues encountered during the theoretical research and policy analysis. This study emphasized that, on the object dimension, sustainable development means to seek for economic and social development within biophysical limits of the earth and the relationship of environment, society, and economy should be containing and complementary rather than parallel and substitute; on the process dimension, sustainable development should adopt both the responsive and proactive strategies for the whole process management which employing pressure-state-response (PRS) model rather than dealing with one part of them; on the subject dimension, sustainable development research should involve the key stakeholders who are kind of collaborate governance rather than separate each other. From the perspective of sustainability science, green economy was utilized as a case study to explore the issues of object, process and subject and also the significance of green economy was discussed in this study.     

Evaluating education for sustainable development (ESD): using Ecocentric and Anthropocentric Attitudes toward the Sustainable Development (EAATSD) scale

With the emergence of education for sustainable development (ESD), robust literature on ethics and ESD has emerged; however, ecocentric perspective developed within environmental ethics is marginalized in current ESDebate. The questions discussed in this article are as follows: Why is the distinction between anthropocentric and ecocentric view of environment salient to ESD? How can this distinction be operationalized and measured? Until now, little has been done to address complement quantitative studies of environmental attitudes by qualitative studies, exploring the sociocultural context in which ecocentric or anthropocentric attitudes are being formed. Neither of existing scales engaged with the interface between environmental ethics and sustainable development. This article will discuss ESD in the context of environmental ethics and present the results of the case study conducted with the Dutch Bachelor-level students. Results of qualitative evaluation of the scale measuring ecocentric and anthropocentric attitudes will be presented, and the new Ecocentric and Anthropocentric Attitudes toward the Sustainable Development (EAATSD) scale will be proposed.     

财政分权与环境治理——基于动态视角的理论和实证分析

基于动态视角,对财政分权与环境治理的关系进行理论分析,提出研究假说,并利用1997—2016年的省级面板数据,对两者的关系进行实证检验。理论研究认为:财政分权在不同的经济发展阶段对环境治理的影响不同。当经济发展水平较低时,财政分权对环境治理的影响以负向的替代效应为主,财政分权不利于环境治理;而当经济发展水平较高时,财政分权对环境治理的影响以正向的收入效应为主,财政分权有利于环境治理。实证研究表明:①在样本时期内,整体而言,我国的财政分权不利于环境治理。该结论在通过模型设定、指标选取以及内生性控制等检验后,仍然成立。②随着经济发展水平的不断提高,财政分权对环境治理的负向效应不断减弱。③面板门槛模型的结果表明,当人均GDP达到3.123万元时,财政分权对环境治理的影响才有可能出现拐点。若以环境污染治理投资总额和行政处罚案件数作为被解释变量时,人均GDP分别要达到4.379万元和6.276万元时,拐点才有可能出现。以上发现的政策启示在于:一方面,尽管现阶段我国的财政分权对环境治理存在负向影响,但是这种负向影响仅是阶段性的,不能因为这种阶段性特征,而否定财政分权制度本身;另一方面,由于我国大部分地区仍处在经济发展的中等收入阶段,为了缓解财政分权的负向效应,可能还需要中央政府进行适当的干预以消除地方政府在环境治理方面的扭曲。     

Sustainability from a Chinese cultural perspective: the implications of harmonious development in environmental management

Sustainable development has broad consensus in environmental science and policy discourse, but its implications differ in specific cultural contexts. This article articulates sustainable development from a Chinese cultural perspective by tracing ideas from Chinese traditional culture and exploring China’s concept of harmonious development with emphasis on environmental management. Ideas that resemble sustainable development are not new to Chinese culture, but have roots in ancient Chinese thoughts, which in turn influence current governance and policies. Notably, Chinese traditional philosophies such as Confucianism, Taoism, Legalism, and Yin–Yang contain philosophies fundamental to sustainable development. As a distinct local discourse, such concepts were well interpreted and understood in the ancient meaning of harmony, giving China unique sustainability perspectives with institutional implications for policies of harmonious development and environmental management. Currently, China is driven to create a new national identity of harmonious development that involves Chinese traditional philosophies and values in its modern administration. The slogans “harmonious society” and “Chinese dream” reflect this new way of responding to the world with the aspiration to achieve cleaner growth, personal prosperity, and social stability. The Chinese and Western roots of sustainable development are conceptually, ideologically, and historically different, and this paper articulates how the convergence of the two underlies contemporary international debates.     

Initial progress in implementing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): a review of evidence from countries

The global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) commenced in 2016 and provide an evidence-based framework for sustainable development planning and programming until 2030. There is emerging international practice and a growing catalogue of related reviews, assessments, guidelines and publications. While the expert community is clearly emphasising the need to adopt evidence- and science-based approaches to SDG implementation, policymakers now face the challenge of implementing the SDGs simultaneously in a coherent and integrated manner. Regular systematic reviews of national progress and approaches to implementing the SDGs are advisable to ensure that emerging science and knowledge is effectively informing national practice. This paper reviews the recent academic and expert literature as well as national experience in implementing the SDGs in 26 countries. It uses a systematic approach to analyse the degree to which key implementation stages and approaches recommended in the expert literature are being adopted and applied to support national SDG implementation on-the-ground. The review highlights that while progress has been made in some initial planning stages, key gaps remain in terms of the assessment of interlinkages, trade-offs and synergies between targets. Gaps are also clearly evident in the adoption of systems thinking and integrated analytical approaches and models. This is problematic as it may undermine effective implementation and the transformative potential of the SDGs. As more countries turn their attention to the SDGs, the review underscores the considerable risk that they will pursue the same ‘siloed’ or ‘linear’ approaches to sustainable development that have met with limited success in the past.     

基于海洋生态产品的海岛旅游绿色发展经济激励额度评估

海洋生态系统为人类提供了环境友好型海产品、可持续海洋原材料、可持续基因资源、生态旅游产品、海景观房地产等海洋生态标签生态产品和减缓温室效应产品、净化环境要素产品、灾害控制产品等海洋关键环境要素生态产品。本文以海洋生态产品理论为基础,将海岛旅游绿色发展含义界定为旅游目的地环境友好型海产品的生产与消费,旅游目的地海洋生态系统与森林生态系统持续稳定地提供核心生态系统服务和旅游业低碳排放;并运用海洋渔业生态标签制度(MFELS)、生态系统服务付费(PES)和市场替换法(MRM),以山东省长岛县为案例地,以问卷调查和访谈调查获取的数据为基础,对海岛旅游绿色发展经济激励额度进行了评估。结果表明:(1)运用MFELS可获得0.207 0×10~8元/a的经济激励资金,其中山东省短途客源地游客、京津冀晋豫中途客源地游客和其他省市区长途客源地游客平均每人次分别承担13.26元、17.57元和17.56元;(2)运用PES可获得0.673 6×10~8元/a的经济激励资金,其中短途游客、中途游客和长途游客平均每人次分别承担43.44元、57.89元和54.42元;(3)运用MRM可获得0.154 1×10~8元/a的经济激励资金,其中各类游客平均每人次分别承担0.00元、14.59元和34.58元;(4)运用MFELS、PES和MRM可获得1.034 7×10~8元/a的经济激励资金,其中各类游客平均每人次分别承担56.70元、90.05元和106.56元。研究建议:各客源地游客承担海岛旅游绿色发展经济激励资金应考虑区域的差异性特征。     

中国对外直接投资的母国环境效应研究——基于区域差异的视角

本研究基于1999-2010年中国省际面板数据,实证分析了中国对外直接投资的母国环境效应.基于联立方程及情景模拟的结果显示:①对外直接投资对规模、结构与技术的影响机制存在明显的区域差异,此外,规模、结构与技术对工业污染的影响机制也同样存在明显的区域差异,基于传导机制与终端影响的区域异质性,采用区域模型比采用全国模型更加合理;②对外直接投资对区域环境影响充满了不确定性,有赢家,有输家,也有许多地区输赢参半.其中,受益地区往往为经济发达地区(比如,华东),受损地区往往为经济欠发达地区(比如,东北).然而,赢者,其受益机制各有不同;输者,其受损机制也截然有异.③综合看来,对外直接投资产生积极母国环境效应的一般机制在于,产业结构优化效应与逆向技术溢出效应;对外直接投资产生消极母国环境效应的一般机制在于,技术效应与结构效应的非期望传导.可见,因地制宜地制定区域性开放经济政策,对中国对外直接投资向环境友好型转变具有重要意义.     

流域立法视角下生态流量保障的制度供给--以长江流域为例

生态流量保障的重难点在于流域生态流量不足问题的妥善解决。生态流量不足基于产生的原因可分为“自然型”和“人为型”。“人为型”生态流量不足的根源在于《水法》第4条规定的三生用水关系未得到妥善处理,实质上是水资源分配和管理不合理所致。具体表现为水资源保护理念镶嵌在制度表层、生态流量缺乏核心制度保障、流域规划匮乏强效监督机制、流域水资源分配信息公开不足、末端行政考核制度偏重水质管控、生态用水制度顶层设计与地方实施间落差巨大等。流域立法作为立法体系的中间环节,对上位法具有填补协调功能,对地方立法具有引领指导作用。建议在流域立法过程中,通过制度设计解构流域生态流量保障现存的制度困境,主要包括以下几个方面:一是完成流域特有保护理念到实体制度的转型。二是基于流域生态修复、水资源生态红线管控制度的开展以及有效衔接规划环境影响评价制度的需要,建立生态流量管控指标制度体系不可或缺。三是基于流域规划对三生用水的初始分配性,将生态流量供给纳入流域规划体系中,从水资源分配初始阶段保障生态流量,同时强化流域水资源规划制度的监督机制,健全规划制定的程序性规范,明确科学考察和调查评价人员的构成规则、方式及模式。四是依法加深政府信息公开程度保障公众的知情权、参与权及监督权。五是完善行政考核制度体系强化对生态流量供给的考核。     

Odour from municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills: a study on the analysis of perception

The objective of this work was to develop a relationship between odour intensity and odour concentration by using data collected from various sensitive areas of the municipal solid waste (MSW) landfill site. A number of well-known psychophysical models (e.g., Weber-Fechner law, Steven's power law, Beidler's and Laffort's models) have been discussed that can successfully relate the perceived intensity with the odour concentration. Respective parameters for each of the models were estimated by the nonlinear Levenburg-Marquardt parameter estimation method. The overall performance of the model was tested statistically against sets of data from the olfactometry analysis. The model based on the Weber-Fechner law was ranked 1 in case of five out of nine samples and it has been found more representative of the less intense odour samples. The model based on Laffort's equation has represented the intensity-concentration relationship better with extremely low uncertainties on both parameters k1 and k2 for comparatively more intense odour samples.     

地方政府生态环境治理注意力研究——基于30个省市政府工作报告(2006—2015)文本分析

注意力代表着政府决策者对特定事务的关注,注意力的变化是政府决策选择变化的直接原因。环境治理注意力是环境治理进入议程设置,进而出台政策、实施治理的前提。政府工作报告是政府进行资源配置与精力投入的指挥棒,也是"政府将重视什么、哪些领域得到更多投入资源"的通知书和承诺书,它是政府注意力分配或者变化的重要载体。本文收集了30个省市地方政府自2006年到2015年共300份工作报告,通过文本分析方法,试图发现地方政府生态环境治理注意力的变化规律。分析结果呈现:1从时间轴上看,地方政府对于生态环境的注意力强度逐渐增加;2从地域轴上看,东、中、西部政府生态环境注意力差距并不明显,相比而言,中部处于一个稍低的位次;3从生态环境的范畴看,具体领域得到进一步扩展,中央与地方对环境具体事务保持了较高的一致性,注意力的变化与决策环境和中央宏观政策有重要相关关系。尽管在某些时间点,某些地域存在离散点,但总体而言,在中央政府强调经济发展需要与当地环境资源承载能力相协调的大背景下,地方政府将注意力大幅转向民生事务和生态环境。鉴于地方领导人任期以及注意力本身的"易变性",要保持地方政府环境治理注意力的强度和持续性,1增加制度供给,使环境治理成为法治常项;2将环境治理在公共事务治理的排序中前置,将环境治理放在突出位置;3提升环境事件的信息强度,向地方政府传导积极的环境治理压力。     

基于STIRPAT和GM(1,1)模型的湖南省农地投入碳排放增长机理及趋势预测

探索农地投入的碳排放特征、增长机理及趋势预测,并提出减排对策对农业发展向低碳绿色转型具有重要意义。研究采用回归分析法、STIRPAT和GM(1,1)模型解析湖南省农地投入碳排放增长机理并做出趋势预测。结果表明:2000~2014年湖南省农地投入碳排放量呈上升趋势,年均增长率为3.25%,各类碳源中化肥累计的碳排放量最大,其次是农药;此外翻耕、农药、农膜、柴油、灌溉、化肥累计碳排放年均增长量分别为0.68%、3.22%、7.47%、6.42%、2.57%、3.25%。农业人口、人均农业GDP、机械化水平、农业生产效率、农业产业结构显著影响农地碳排放,各因素每发生1%的变动会相应带来农地碳排放量约0.20%、0.95%、0.12%、0.98%和0.93%的变化。通过GM(1,1)模型对2016~2020年湖南省农地投入碳排放量进行预测,碳排放量呈持续上升趋势,2020年预计达到430.43万t。最后根据研究结果提出促进农地投入碳减排的政策建议。     

责任分配抑或权利确认:流域生态补偿适用条件之辨析

当前有关流域生态补偿的研究和实践探索,均倾向于从责任分配视角来设定流域生态补偿的适用条件。然而,从责任分配视角来界定流域生态补偿之适用条件面临着诸多困境。以水质控制目标作为适用条件的地方立法和以超过Ⅲ类水质标准作为流域生态补偿适用条件之观点,均限缩了流域生态补偿的适用范围,导致了补偿义务主体与受偿主体之间法律关系的混乱,并背离了流域生态补偿的本质和基本功能预设。无论从流域生态补偿的功能定位出发,还是基于该制度构建的正当性基础和可行性考量,均应从权利确认而非责任分配视角来明晰流域生态补偿之适用条件。首先,流域生态补偿的基本功能是流域生态利益正向供给激励,受偿主体的权利确认与保障是这一制度构建的重心。从责任分配的角度来界定流域生态补偿之适用条件,将导致其基本功能的偏离;其次,"最少受惠者的最大利益"原则是流域生态补偿制度构建的正当性基础,流域生态补偿的本质是对"最少受惠者"发展权的弥补。从责任分配视角界定流域生态补偿之适用条件遮蔽了流域生态补偿法律关系中的"最少受惠者";再次,受益主体的非特定性意味着从权利确认视角来界定流域生态补偿之适用条件将更具有可行性。从权利确认视角来看,流域生态补偿的适用条件应包括:有生态增益行为、非有责主体、不问主观动机与现实损害后果。     

多维度城镇化视角下的碳排放影响因素研究——基于中国省域数据的空间杜宾面板模型

城镇化与碳排放是当代中国经济社会发展的两大特征,中国的新型城镇化不仅要求实现人口、土地、经济城镇化的协调统一,还要求在城镇化的进程中注重生态环境的保护,实现绿色低碳发展。因此,从不同维度城镇化视角探讨碳排放的影响因素并对比其差异具有重要的理论与现实意义。本文根据2008—2014年中国30个省份的面板数据测算了各省的碳排放量,运用熵权法对表征土地城镇化、经济城镇化的相关指标进行了整组变量压缩,然后运用ESDA方法分析了省域间碳排放的空间相关性,基于STIRPAT模型分别构建了人口城镇化、土地城镇化、经济城镇化三个维度下的碳排放影响因子空间杜宾面板模型并进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,各省份的碳排放存在正的空间相关性,并且经济因素助长了这种空间相关性。在各城镇化维度下,人口规模、人均可支配收入、碳强度对本省份及相邻省份的碳排放均具有显著的影响,其中:人口规模是最主要的影响因素;人均可支配收入具有显著的正向作用,中国正处于环境库兹涅茨曲线的上升阶段;在经济水平相近的情况下,各省份间的碳排放具有"逐顶竞争"的特征。不同城镇化维度下,各因素对碳排放的影响存在明显的差异:从直接效应来看,经济城镇化维度下各影响因素的弹性系数最大,土地城镇化维度下的人口规模对碳排放的影响最小;从反馈效应来看,在人口城镇化维度下省份间碳排放的"逐顶竞争"特征最为明显;从间接效应来看,经济城镇化维度下的人均可支配收入对相邻省份的碳排放量存在显著的负向影响。     

Radiological and multi-element analysis of sediments from the Proserpina reservoir (Spain) dating from Roman times

The Proserpina dam was built in Roman times to provide drinking water to Emerita Augusta (today's Mérida in SW Spain). During maintenance work, a sediment core was extracted, offering an excellent opportunity to analyze the historical environmental impacts of the dam and its reservoir over the 2000 years since Roman times. In order to establish an accurate chronology, ¹⁴C ages were determined by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). Core samples were assayed for their content in uranium and thorium series isotopes, ⁴⁰K, and the anthropogenic radionuclides ¹³⁷Cs, ⁹⁰Sr, and ^239+240Pu. Potassium-40 presented the highest activity level and was not constant with depth. The uranium and thorium series were generally in equilibrium, suggesting there had been no additional input of natural radionuclides. The presence of ¹³⁷Cs was only found in relation with the global fallout in the early 1960s. Multi-element assays were performed using the PIXE and PIGE techniques. Some variations in the multi-element concentrations were observed with depth, but the sediment core could be considered as clean, and no presumptive anthropogenic pollutants were found. Nevertheless, an unusually high Zn content was detected at depths corresponding to pre-Roman times, due to geological anomalies in the area.     

京津冀生态文明与城市化协调发展的时序与空间演变

构建反映生态文明与城市化发展内涵的两系统评价指标体系,以均方差决策法、耦合协调度模型、探索性空间数据分析(ESDA),借助Arc GIS软件从时间和空间两个维度定量分析京津冀13市2007—2016年生态文明与城市化的耦合协调关系及变化趋势。结果表明:①生态文明与城市化系统耦合协调度逐年提升,从2007年13市均处于拮抗发展阶段,到2016年实现较低水平协调,多数城市生态文明建设滞后于城市化进程。②生态文明与城市化耦合协调发展水平存在显著的全局正向空间自相关性,局部空间自相关性存在显著的空间集聚特征,处于高-高集聚区与低-低集聚区的城市最多,北京、廊坊和保定三地的局部空间自相关性最为显著,此三地对周围临近城市的辐射能力更强。基于分析结论,提出实现京津冀13市生态文明与城市化高质量耦合协调发展的策略:①将生态文明建设融入城市化进程,强力推进京津冀"弱势区域"生态文明建设与城市化"同频共振",推动京津两地优势资源向河北溢出和辐射。②强化三地的区域协作,促进共同发展,充分利用高水平集聚区的示范效应,带动和提升低水平集聚区协调发展,加强三地环境治理的联防联控,构建共建共治发展平台。③根据耦合协调度"中间高、南北低"的空间分布差异,三地政府还需根据自身特色,因地制宜研判和明确发展策略。