论资源宏观预警的八组关系

本文论述了资源宏观预警中要进一步处理好的宏观与微观、长期与短期、长线与短线、单项与综合、实物与价值、资源与资产、速度与效益、绝对与相对等几组关系。     

建设资源节约型农业的途径与模式

建设资源节约型农业的根本途径是提高农业生产力。其中主要的措施有:科学利用气候资源,充分发挥气候生产潜力;十分珍惜每寸土地,努力提高土地生产率;大力推行节水措施,扩大农田灌溉面积;科学合理施肥,持续提高单产;提高能源利用率,解决农村能源短缺;实现人畜分粮,缓解人地关系;促进农产品商品流通,提高农业经济效益等。立体农业是发展资源节约型农业的最佳模式,也是中国式的高效益资源节约型农业的重要模式之一。     

Exploring relationships of environmental attitudes,behaviors, and sociodemographic indicators to aspects of discourses: analyses of International Social Survey Programme data in the Philippines

Data from the International Social Survey Programme 2000 and 2010 environment modules were analyzed to explore the relationships between attitudes, behavior, and sociodemographic variables to citizens’ preferences to aspects of environmental discourse in the Philippines. Overall, significantly more people agree to multilateralism, equity, and the link between the environment and economic progress in 2010 as compared to 2000. A series of multinomial logistic regressions were conducted to determine significant predictors to peoples’ disposition to variables related to three overarching environmental discourses. After controlling for other covariates, the study found that the more the Filipinos adhere to statements toward science and nature that are negatively connoted: the more likely they are to agree to international multilateral commitments and ascribe to equity for poorer countries in environmental efforts; and less likely to disagree to the aspects of multilateralism, equity, and the link between the environment and economic progress. Furthermore, the results showed that demographics and civic participations generally did not have a statistically significant impact on Filipino’s agreement or disagreement to environmental discourses. The paper then discusses the implications of the findings and conclusions of the study.     

Dividing and Uniting Through Naming: The Case of North Carolina's Sea-Level-Rise Policy

Opponents of a proposed sea-level-rise policy in North Carolina, USA, reasoned rhetorically to promote a narrative claiming that the policy supporters’ efforts had failed to meet the criteria of “good” science and the American dream expectancy of “progress.” The critics worked to hinder policy adoption by naming as “villains” scientists who provided research to support the proposed policy. In addition, the opponents named their own efforts to prevent policy based on “bad” science that would “destroy” the American dream as “heroic.” To more effectively respond to such narratives, scientists and policy proponents need to shift away from reporting just climate change “facts” in the attempt to gain stakeholder support for mitigation and adaptation initiatives. They need to move toward reasoning rhetorically to construct narratives that encourage the public to name them as the “heroes” who will achieve the American dream by their actions to mitigate climate-change outcomes.     

南水北调中线工程中的引江济汉补偿工程

引江济汉是南水北调中线引汉调水的补偿工程,按总体规划应结合当地水利规划建设,不宜修成封闭的“高架”水渠只向汉江下游补水。遵循节约资源、保护环境、推动发展的思路,引江济汉应以江苏江水北调模式,扩展和延伸为引江入汉济黄,取代南水北调中线二期扩建工程。①引江入长湖利用沮漳河下游河道输水,并改造荆州城市水系,破解血吸虫病传播扩散、泥沙入湖和水源污染三大环境风险;②引江入汉利用长湖调蓄提水至兴隆水库,节省渠道长度;③碾盘山梯级采取一级二站抽水蓄能开发方式,简化汉江干流反向输水工程,抽江至崔家营水库,引清调度改善汉江中下游水质,又为黄河下游增加水资源量提供稳定可靠的水源;④从“南襄隘道”唐河东侧修建鄂豫运河,将长江水不经丹江口水库直接送达方城去郑州济黄,推进构建一条纵贯南北的水运干线。     

科技促进宁夏可持续发展的现状分析

科技是推动宁夏进一步深化改革与发展、实施西部大开发战略、促进经济持续增长、优化产业结构、提升产业竞争实力、缓解发展过程中的资源环境约束力、实现可持续发展的核心力量.科技在促进宁夏实现可持续发展方面取得显著的成就与经验,但是在支Ё撑全区社会经济发展、改善环境以及区域科技创新能力建设方面仍存在急需解决的问题:①科技资源布局不合理;②产业工艺落后,能耗偏高:③特色优势产业发展后劲严重不足,成果转化率低;④区域科技创新能力弱.文章最后结合宁夏自然环境条件、社会经济发展状况、文化特点提出了其未来科技发展的战略思路及重点.     

生态系统服务市场化工具:概念、类型与适用

生态系统服务市场化工具作为一种与命令控制型进路相对的环境政策工具,最初与污染问题相联系而出现,之后扩展至生物多样性和生态系统服务的保护,被认为能够更有效地应对市场失灵,为自然资源管理提供正向激励,有助于优化资源配置以及填补生态保护资金缺口。通过对生态系统服务市场化工具概念、类型和适用的考察,可以发现生态系统服务市场化工具的概念虽频繁出现,但界定过于宽泛模糊,几乎泛指所有带有价格成分的工具;生态系统服务市场化工具的类型划分并不一致,基于归纳的类型划分将现行市场化工具归纳为基于价格的机制、基于数量的机制和市场摩擦机制三类,而基于演绎的类型划分,则将市场化工具分为直接市场交易、许可证交易、反向拍卖、科斯类型协议、调控价格变化和自愿性价格信号六类;生态系统服务市场化工具的适用需要以生态系统服务的货币化为前提,受制于制度背景,并且应当针对市场的弊端予以法律规制,确保交易能够真正提供环境效益;市场化工具的选择不仅有赖于数字运算,还应当考虑多种因素并予以权衡,同时综合运用各种市场化或非市场化工具。中国在建立健全生态保护市场体系的过程中,应当把握生态系统服务市场化工具通过生态系统服务货币化和商品化解决环境外部性问题这一实质,理解缓解银行、生态系统服务付费、反向拍卖、生态标签和生态认证等典型市场化工具的运行机理,明确生态系统服务市场化工具适用的前提和规则,更好地发挥市场化工具的积极功效,从而实现特定的环境政策目标。     

长江中下游流域旱涝急转时空演变特征分析

基于长江中下游流域75个雨量站1960~2012年的日降水资料,通过定义长、短周期旱涝急转指数,全面地分析了长江中下游流域旱涝急转的趋势变化和时空分布特征。研究结果表明:(1)长周期旱涝急转表现为以涝转旱事件为主,且存在由旱涝急转事件向全旱或全涝事件过渡的趋势,短周期的旱涝急转发生频率较高的也是涝转旱事件;(2)长江中下游北岸多发生旱转涝事件,南岸则多发生涝转旱事件;(3)1998年和2011年6~7月短周期高强度旱转涝事件发生在长江北岸,涝转旱事件发生在南岸地区;5~6月与7~8月旱涝急转事件强度分布则呈相反状态;(4)总体来说,长、短周期涝转旱频次呈现不断减小的趋势,旱转涝有轻微增加的趋势。7~8月则较为特殊,湘江流域涝转旱有增加的趋势,洞庭湖地区涝转旱显著增加,此研究结果可以为长江中下游流域防洪抗旱工作提供一定的依据。     

基于熵权TOPSIS模型的土地利用多功能性诊断

从经济、社会和生态3个方面出发构建土地利用多功能性评价指标体系,应用熵权TOPSIS模型对江苏省近年来土地利用多功能性进行诊断分析可以优化区域土地的合理开发,提高土地利用效率,为促进区域的可持续发展提供有效依据。研究结果表明：2006~2016年江苏省土地利用综合功能经历了一般—良好的发展阶段,综合功能在不断优化;经济功能经历了较差—一般—良好—优秀—良好的发展阶段,虽然有所波动,但其依旧呈增长态势;社会功能经历了较差—一般—良好—优秀的发展阶段,呈现出持续稳步提高趋势;生态功能经历了一般—良好—一般的发展趋势,整体呈下降趋势。另外土地利用的经济功能和社会功能子目标的障碍度在逐年下降,对目前江苏省土地利用有效性起制约作用的主要是生态功能,应减少废水排放和工业固体废弃物等污染造成的生态破坏,加强水资源的保护,同时缩小城乡差距,推进城乡融合,促进土地利用过程中经济、社会和生态功能的协调发展。     

长江中下游湿地保护与流域生态管理

湿地是地球上具有多功能的、独特的生态系统,是人类最重要的生存环境之一。长江中下游湿地保护必须从流域管理角度进行规划和保护,应由过去主要是单块湿地保护向按流域系统保护的转变。具体可采取以下措施：在流域内建立统一协调机制,对流域湿地进行保护与合理利用,合理布局,统一规划;按湖泊流域和物种分布整合现有保护区,建立新的湿地保护区,解决目前管理上的制约问题;大力开展湿地修复重建;推进退耕还林、长江防护林等工程建设,发挥森林治理水土流失、涵养水源的作用;在保护的前提下科学合理地利用长江中下游湿地资源,开拓新的生产力;同时加强湿地科学研究。     

Data assimilation for short range atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides: a case study of second-order sensitivity

This article presents the application of variational data assimilation to a simple Gaussian plume model for radionuclides. Adjoint modeling is applied to the model in order to minimize discrepancies between contamination observations and model outputs. The interest of such an approach is to get a better estimation of some parameters such as emissions or dispersion parameters.A second-order analysis is also performed to assess the sensitivity of the optimized parameters to some poorly known parameters. Sensitivity with respect to network design is also done.     

江苏省可持续发展分析、评价与战略对策

江苏正处在经济快速增长的过程中，协调经济、社会、资源、环境保护之间的关系，保证区域可持续发展，是该地区需迫切解决的根本问题之一。对江苏省可持续发展态势进行了分析，建立了可持续发展评价指标体系和长江沿江、东南沿海各省市的数据库，对江苏省可持续发展状况进行了定量评价，并与沿江、沿海省市进行了横向比较，对江苏省可持续发展类型进行了分析和判断。通过分析，认为江苏省可持续发展主要存在经济发展动力和效益低、就业和人口老龄化压力大、资源制约、环境污染等问题。针对这些问题，提出了加快科技成果转化，加强人力资源管理，完善社会保障体系，确保资源安全，实施减灾、防灾与治污工程和建立多元环境监管体系等可持续发展战略对策。     

Technology transfer insights for new climate regime

The purpose of technology transfer under the UNFCCC Article 4.5 is to “…promote, facilitate, and finance as appropriate the transfer of, or access to, environmentally sound technologies and know how to other Parties particularly Developing Country parties to enable them to implement the provisions of the Convention.” The key challenge in this respect is that low-carbon sustainable technologies need to be adopted both by developed as well as developing countries. However, this paper focuses on the process of technology transfer to developing countries to allow them to move quickly to environmentally sound and sustainable practices, institutions and technologies. In the above framework, this paper reviews key aspects of technology transfer from a range of perspectives in the literature and discusses insights from this literature for the transfer and innovation process needed to reduce global vulnerability to climate change in the context of current international activities based on the research undertaken by the EU sponsored ENTTRANS project.     

Recent climate change in the Prince Edward County winegrowing region,Ontario, Canada: implications for adaptation in a fledgling wine industry

There is mounting evidence that climate change is already having an impact on the wine industry, with effects being region specific. In order to understand the capacity of regional wine sectors to adapt to changing climate, it is useful to document the conditions that are important to producers and to identify adaptation and management strategies that are employed in the industry. This paper analyzes climatic conditions and adaptation strategies in the wine region of Prince Edward County Ontario, Canada. Wine producers identified the climate variables most important to their operations and described strategies they use to manage climate-related conditions. The identified variables were analyzed for trends over the study period 1987–2011, and interview data were analyzed in order to categorize adaptive strategies. Results indicate that the wine sector is very sensitive to climate, and the region is already experiencing the effects of climate change, especially with regard to increasing growing season mean minimum daily temperatures, increasing total summer rainfall, and later onset of fall frosts. Adaptive strategies employed by producers are largely learned though collaborative efforts and trial and error. The adaptations are mostly tactical and reactive in the short term, but with continued climate change, these strategies may develop into strategic, anticipatory measures. Climate change has the potential to present both challenges and opportunities to Prince Edward County wine producers, and adaptations will continue to require strong networking and collaborative efforts.     

Transfer of radioactivity to fruit: significant radionuclides and speciation

One of the roles of the BIOMASS Theme 3 Fruit Working Group was to identify significant radionuclides to support its work programme. This paper provides a short review of radionuclide emissions to atmosphere together with comments on their relative dosimetric impacts to identify those radionuclides most relevant to the Fruit Working Group. Speciation of the identified radionuclides is also discussed to identify the most likely chemical forms to which fruits might be exposed. It is noted that no information currently exists on radionuclide speciation in regard to the uptake and retention of radionuclides in fruit crops.     

Determination of the sources of toxic elements in environmental particles using microscopic and statistical analysis techniques

Samples of urban dust were physically fractionated into subsamples having unique size, density, ferromagnetism, and elemental compositional characteristics. The high density fractions containing the majority of each of the potentially toxic metals (Pb, Cd, Zn, Cr, Co, Mn) were subjected to X-ray microanalysis and to bulk analysis using instrumental neutron activation. Microanalysis was used to classify individual particles with respect to primary sources. The bulk analytical results were subjected to factor analysis to delineate the underlying factors (particle sources) responsible for the compositional variation in the subsamples. The advantages of the combined use of microanalytical and statistical techniques for source definition are described. X-ray microanalysis is used to substantiate the attribution of a given factor to a suspected particle source, to aid in the determination of the number of factors (sources) present, and to assess the extent to which a given factor represents a unique source of particles. Bulk analysis/factor analysis promotes the most effective use of X-ray microanalysis to characterize major particle types, and provides data on some toxic trace metals (e.g., Cd) that are not detectable using X-ray microanalysis. Target transformation factor analysis also is more useful in the quantitative determination of the relative mass contributions of major sources to the total dust sample.     

The influence of the level of definition of functional specifications on the environmental performances of a complex system. EcoCSP approach

The tendency towards a homogenous mode of development modelled on that of Western countries means that sustainable development has become increasingly urgent. It is necessary to thoroughly redefine products and their expected performances in such a way that the consequences are compatible with sustainable development. In the domain of product design, this means that it is no longer sufficient to use assessment tools “after the fact” to check the impact of products whose functional unit (FU) was defined prior to production; it is now necessary to rethink the definition of the FU itself. This article aims to present an approach based on a combination of life cycle analysis methods and problem-solving by constraint satisfaction. This original approach makes it possible to vary the design of the different dimensions of the FUs of a complex system and thus to make it easier to identify the best architecture along with the best functional definition of the system. In this study, the EcoCSP approach is applied to define the functional performances of an ecological passenger ferry. The complexity of couplings between subsystems and the sheer number of those subsystems mean that the designer has to use “intelligent” tools. These simulate a great number of scenarios and help him/her to fine-tune the system and make the right technological choices with regard to the right functional specifications.     

Beasts,Burgers, and Hummers: Meat and the Crisis of Masculinity in Contemporary Television Advertisements

This paper examines three recent television advertisements that symbolically link meat not only with masculinity, but specifically with the “crisis in masculinity.” Using an ecofeminist lens, I engage in an intersectional analysis of these advertisements to demonstrate how they articulate the eating of meat with primitive masculinities as a response to perceived threats to hegemonic masculinity. These advertisements demonstrate that scholars interested in the status of masculinity must pay attention to the “threats” to masculinity posed by environmental and animal rights movements, and that scholars interested in environmental movements must pay attention to the role of masculinity in resisting moves toward sustainability. This analysis demonstrates the utility of ecofeminism in understanding the relationship between hegemonic masculinity and environmentalism while also pointing to the need for ecofeminism to continue to explore the implications of intersectionality for ecofeminist theory and criticism.     

A critical review of measures to reduce radioactive doses from drinking water and consumption of freshwater foodstuffs.

Following a radioactive fallout event, there are a number of possible intervention measures to reduce radioactive doses to the public via the surface water pathway. We have critically reviewed the options available to decision-makers in the event of radioactive contamination of surface waters. We believe that the most effective and viable measures to reduce radioactivity in drinking water are those which operate at the water treatment and distribution stage. Intervention measures to reduce concentrations of radioactivity in rivers and reservoirs are expected to be much less viable and efficient at reducing doses via the drinking water pathway. Bans on consumption of freshwater fish can be effective, but there are few viable measures to reduce radioactivity in fish prior to the preparation stage. Lake liming and biomanipulation have been found to be ineffective for radiocaesium, although the addition of potassium to lakewaters appears promising in some situations. Lake liming may be effective in reducing radiostrontium in fish, though this has not, to our knowledge, been tested. De-boning fish contaminated by strontium is probably the most effective food preparation measure, but salting and freezing can also reduce radiocaesium concentrations in fish. The provision of accurate information to the public is highlighted as a key element of countermeasure implementation.     

Risk to water security for small islands: an assessment framework and application

The freshwater resources of small islands are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and human stressors due to their limited extent and adaptive capacity. A water security approach is useful for effective management of the water resources; however, understanding risk to water security is critical in order to effectively plan and adapt to future changes. Currently available assessment tools generally do not incorporate risk and are not suitable for application on small islands, where the hydrogeological setting has unique vulnerabilities. The aim of this work is to provide a framework to characterize risk to water security for small islands. The risk assessment was developed using Andros Island, the Bahamas, as a case study area. Numerical modelling characterizes the response of the water system to potential future stressors related to climate change and human development, the results of which are integrated into the assessment framework. Based on risk assessment principles, indicators are determined for susceptibility, hazard threat, vulnerability and loss, in order to define the risk to water security. The resulting indicators are presented in geospatial maps that rank areas of risk to water security. These maps were provided to local water managers and policy-makers in the Bahamas as a tool to identify high-risk areas for near-term action and to inform long-term planning. The maps have also been used as a platform to engage local residents and raise awareness about the impact climate change and land-use activities may have on water security.