Land use/land cover change and statistical modelling of cultivated land change drivers in Nigeria

Regional Environmental Change - In recent decades, human activities have significantly influenced land use/land cover. Identifying pattern changes in regional land use/land cover and their drivers...     

Scenarios and story lines: drivers of land use change in southern Mexico

The study presents three scenarios of land use and cover change (LUCC), the most important factor for environmental degradation in southern Mexico. We developed story lines and quantitative projections for regional scenarios based on historic LUCC processes, environmental policies, socioeconomic drivers, stakeholder consultations and official planning documents to gain a better understanding of drivers of LUCC, and quantitative scenarios were modeled with DINAMICA-EGO. Regionally specific interactions between social and natural systems are recognized, and detrimental policies and policy options for landscape conservation and management for sustainability are acknowledged in a base line, variant and alternative scenario. Incongruent policies and ineffective ground implementation of conservation actions were identified as the critical underlying drivers of deforestation and forest degradation that could lead to a severe reduction in natural forests, while the local socioeconomic situation stays precarious. The baseline scenario parts from an analysis of historic LUCC processes and shows the consequences of LUCC tendencies: 73% of temperate forests and 50% of tropical forests would get deforested until 2030. In the variant scenario, these tendencies are adjusted to planning goals extracted from official documents and recent changes in public policies. The alternative scenario further addresses policy options for fostering conservation and sustainable development, but because of the time lag of implementation, still 59% of temperate forests and 36% of tropical forest would get lost until 2030. Nevertheless, this represents a reduction of 13% of forest loss and 11% less pastureland due to the proposed measures of conservation, and sustainable management, including strategies for reforming agricultural systems, agricultural and forestry policies and trade, land tenure and livelihood risk management.     

Characteristics and drivers of forest cover change in the post-socialist era in Croatia: evidence from a mixed-methods approach

Extensive forests in Croatia represent an important biological and economic resource in Europe. They are characterised by heterogeneity in forest management practices dating back to the socialist planned economy of the pre-1991 era. In this study we investigated the difference in rates of deforestation and reforestation in private- and state-owned forests during the post-socialist period and the causal drivers of change. The selected region of Northern Croatia is characterised by a high percentage of privately owned forests with minimal national monitoring and control. We used a mixed-methods approach which combines remote sensing, statistical modelling and a household-based questionnaire survey to assess the rates of forest cover change and factors influencing those changes. The results show that predominantly privately owned forests in Northern Croatia have recorded a net forest loss of 1.8 % during the 1991–2011 period, while Croatia overall is characterised by a 10 % forest cover increase in predominantly state-owned forests. Main factors influencing forest cover changes in private forests are slope, altitude, education structure, population age and population density. The results also show that the deforestation in private forests is weakening overall, mostly due to the continuation of the de-agrarisation and de-ruralisation processes which began during socialism.     

Social network ties predict land use diversity and land use change: a case study in Ghana

Regional Environmental Change - While it is well documented that informal social ties play a role in information exchange on land management practices, the structural features of such networks that...     

Long-term change in drivers of forest cover expansion: an analysis for Switzerland (1850-2000)

Regional Environmental Change - The spatial distribution of forests in Europe represents the legacy of centuries of human land use decisions. Due to the limited availability of historical data,...     

Linking satellite-based forest cover change with rainfall and land surface temperature in Kerala,India

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Forest cover change is having an enduring link with climatic factors. This study was designed to study the impact of forest cover change in the Western...     

Legacies,socio-economic and biophysical processes and drivers: the case of future forest cover expansion in the Polish Carpathians and Swiss Alps

Mountain forest areas are key for providing a wide range of ecosystem services and are hot spots for land use change processes, in particular, increase in forest cover at the expense of mountain pastures and meadows. Mountain forest systems in eastern and western Europe have likely similar future socio-economic situations but significantly different socio-economic history. Using a scenario-based land use modelling approach (Dyna-CLUE framework) we model three scenarios (trend, liberalisation and self-sufficiency) of future land use in the Polish Carpathians and the Swiss Alps, focussing on forest cover change. We find that forest cover increase can be expected to continue in European mountainous regions under all likely scenarios, limited only by relatively strict policy interventions. Biophysical factors, rather than socio-economic ones, are key for defining the suitability for, and therefore likely locations of future forest cover, but land use legacy plays a very important role in the spatial patterns of future forest cover, particularly in eastern Europe.

     

Towards adequately framing sustainability goals in research projects: the case of land use studies

Sustainability-oriented undertakings employ a multitude of different definitions and understandings of the term sustainable development. Against this background, the question of which sustainability goals to refer to at project level must be posed. This article discusses this question using the example of research on land use issues. It presents a qualitative in-depth empirical analysis of the underlying sustainability understanding of research projects, and identifies crucial characteristics of the ways researchers deal with the respective normative goals. The notions of sustainable development advanced by such projects featured different foci with respect to the overall meaning of the concept and were influenced by diverse actor and stakeholder perspectives. Further, the identified sustainability conceptions were deliberated on to different extents, and also differed with respect to whether they were explicit or contextualized. Most importantly, the projects differed in how they broached the issue of sustainability goals as part of research. The findings were used to develop a set of guidelines that clarifies how research can be related successfully to the societal vision of sustainable development. The guidelines draw conceptually on general requirements for appropriate sustainability conceptions derived from the Brundtland definition. They offer a tool for reflecting on one’s assumptions with respect to sustainability goals at any stage of research, which is crucial for advancing the seminal field of sustainability science.     

Modeling spatio-temporal change patterns of forest cover: a case study from the Himalayan foothills (India)

The present study used temporal remote sensing data for 1990, 2001 and 2006 to assess spatio-temporal patterns of forest cover changes in Shiwalik range of the Himalaya, Dehradun forest division. Forests are innately associated to human well-being. However, with the increasing anthropogenic activities, deforestation has increased. Quantitative change analysis of the forest cover for the past two decades provides valuable insight into the forest conservation vis-à-vis anthropogenic activities in the region. Spatio-temporal datasets along with biotic and abiotic variables provide opportunities to model the forest cover change further. The present study investigates forest cover change and predicts status of forest cover in the Dehradun forest division. Land Change Modeller (LCM) was used to predict status of forest cover for 2010 and 2015 using current disturbance scenarios. Comparing actual LULC of 2006 with the predicted LULC of 2006 validated change prediction model and agreement was 61.03%. The forested areas are getting degraded due to anthropogenic activities, but deforestation/degradation does not contribute much in expanding urban area. Agricultural areas and fallow lands are the main contributors to increased urban area. The study demonstrates the potential of geospatial tools to understand spatio-temporal forest cover change and generate the future scenarios.     

Land use and land cover change affecting habitat distribution in the Segara Anakan lagoon, Java, Indonesia

This study quantifies and spatially characterizes land use and land cover changes in the Segara Anakan lagoon (SAL), Java, Indonesia, from 1987–2006. Classification of four satellite (SPOT) images from the years 1987, 1995, 2004 and 2006 and field ground truth data from 2004 and 2005 were used for map generation. The results show major changes in the western area of the SAL, with large area increases of rice fields, dry land agriculture, aquaculture and rural areas, and decreases in mangrove cover, mud flat and lagoon area. In the eastern area, minor decreases in mangrove area and increase in aquaculture, rural and industrial areas were also observed. Changes are due to the filling of the lagoon with riverine sediments derived from the hinterland and to mangrove conversion and resources exploitation. The results of this study provide basic information which is required for developing measures towards a sustainable management and conservation of the SAL.     

A bibliometric analysis of tropical mangrove forest land use change from 2010 to 2020

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Mangrove land use changes of varied intensities have long been a problem in tropical mangrove forests. This has resulted in various degrees of mangrove...     

Marginal land use and value characterizations in Lagos: untangling the drivers and implications for sustainability

Lagos, the leading African megacity, is a coastal city located in creeks and riparian environment. In all parts of the city, transactions in marginal lands—riparian or water-logged areas—are increasingly becoming more noticeable. However, while previous studies have focused upon normal land transactions, the dynamics of land uses in marginal regions remain largely unexplained. Information on the dynamics of informal land transactions in the marginal regions of Lagos city is important for urban sustainability. This study therefore interrogates the attributes, uses, values and drivers of marginal land in Lagos using generalized linear model (GLM). Findings show that the predominant land use in marginal areas of Lagos is residential, majority of the lands are less than full plot size, close to river channels and less accessible, and the mean price ranges from NGN 3,156,908 to NGN 4,052,158. The GLM estimations show that distance to river channels/lagoon and buyer’s status have more significant influence on marginal land uses and values in Lagos. These findings have significant policy and practical implications for the city’s land use and sustainability. For urban and environmental sustainability, there is need to stem transactions in coastal marginal environments of Lagos for their obvious implications for climate change, flooding, erosion, sea incursion, building collapse, natural parks and public spaces, river channels and urban greening.     

Dynamics of land use land cover and its impact on carbon stocks in Sub-Saharan Africa: an overview

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Land use land cover change (LULCC) is a global environmental trend that plays a key role in worldwide environmental change and sustainable development....     

Identifying pathways to visions of future land use in Europe

Regional Environmental Change - Plausible scenarios of future land use derived from model projections may differ substantially from what is actually desired by society, and identifying such...     

Representing large-scale land acquisitions in land use change scenarios for the Lao PDR

Regional Environmental Change - Agricultural large-scale land acquisition (LSLA) is a process that is currently not captured by land change models. We present a novel land change modeling approach...     

Changing weather and climate in Northern Ghana: comparison of local perceptions with meteorological and land cover data

Regional Environmental Change - Local perspectives on changing weather and climate and analyses of meteorological data represent two different but potentially complementary ways of knowing about...     

Future land use and land cover in Southern Amazonia and resulting greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural soils

Regional Environmental Change - The calculation of robust estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions due to agriculture is essential to support the framing of the Brazilian climate change...     

Climate change, drought risk and land capability for agriculture: implications for land use in Scotland

Land capability classification systems define and communicate biophysical limitations on land use, including climate, soils and topography. They can therefore provide an accessible format for both scientists and decision-makers to share knowledge on climate change impacts and adaptation. Underlying such classifications are complex interactions that require dynamic spatial analysis, particularly between soil and climate. These relationships are investigated using a case study on drought risk for agriculture in Scotland, which is currently considered less significant than wetness-related issues. The impact of drought risk is assessed using an established empirical system for land capability linking indicator crops with water availability. This procedure is facilitated by spatial interpolation of climate and soil profile data to provide soil moisture deficits and plant available water on a regular 1-km grid. To evaluate potential impacts of future climate change, land capability classes are estimated using both large-scale ensemble (multi-simulation) data from the HadRM3 regional climate model and local-scale weather generator data (UKCP09) derived from multiple climate models. Results for the case study suggest that drought risk is likely to have a much more significant influence on land use in the future. This could potentially act to restrict the range of crops grown and hence reduce land capability in some areas unless strategic-level adaptation measures are developed that also integrate land use systems and water resources with the wider environment.     

Toward achieving a sustainable management: characterization of land use/land cover in Sokoto Rima floodplain,Nigeria

Land use change is the main driving force of global environmental change and is considered as very central to the ongoing debate on sustainable development. Even though large volume of literature materials is available of land use/land cover (LU/LC) change for many areas, very little is known of it in the floodplain of the Sokoto Rima River Basin of Nigeria despite the basin’s strategic importance. Thus, this study characterized the basin’s LU/LC and its change using computer-based digital classification of near-anniversary Landsat 5 TM imagery of November 23, 1998, and Landsat 8 OLI of December 2, 2013. The results of the digital classification were complimented with field-based observations on major observable characteristics of every LU/LC identified. Thirteen classes (forest area, dense grassland, grassy fallow, grazed open grassland, open cultivation, open grain fallow farmland, pepper cultivation, rice farmland, scrubland, sugarcane farmland, dry bare land, sand deposit and wetland/water) were characterized and the nature and extent of their changes assessed. 40 % of the basin’s uses is under cultivation, 22 % is under fallow, 27 % is either degraded or non-cultivable, while 11 % is forested. Change events include forest loss, increase in area cultivated, expansion of shrub/scrubland and pervasiveness of grazing. The changes were more pronounced in the upper than either the central and southern segments of the basin. In general LU/LC changes in the basin are reflection of increased human population pressure and effects of climate change. The LU/LC patterns and changes suggest underutilization and mismanagement of the floodplain which have impact on soil, hydrology and biodiversity with serious implication for livelihood and food security. The study recommends that interventions are needed to promote enhanced and sustainable management of land, water and vegetation resources in the basin, with particular emphasis on empowering the local land users to participate actively toward sustainable management of the floodplain.