中国工业碳排放达峰的情景预测与减排潜力评估

实现2030年碳排放达峰不仅是中国为应对全球气候变化向国际社会做出的郑重承诺,也是中国未来经济结构转型与可持续发展的必然选择。基于中国实现2030年碳排放达到峰值的宏观目标为背景,本文以中国碳排放的主要行业工业为研究对象,首先运用拓展的STIRPAT模型对工业及其9个细分行业的碳排放达峰进行了情景预测,然后基于公平和效率的双重视角对工业细分行业的减排潜力进行评估。研究表明:(1)仅有低碳情景和抑制排放情景2可以实现中国碳排放2030年达峰,低碳情景是实现中国工业碳排放达峰的最佳发展模式,达峰时间最早(2030年),峰值最低(140.43亿t)。激进排放情景则是最差的发展模式,达峰时间最晚(2036年),峰值也最高(150.09亿t)。(2)工业内部各细分行业碳排放的最优达峰情景差别较大。建材和纺织制造业能够实现提前达峰,可以在这类行业率先实施达峰管理措施,使其带动其他行业陆续达峰。(3)最具减排潜力的行业是石油制造业,其次是电力行业,这些减排潜力较大的行业应该成为国家节能减排的重点对象。(4)基于工业各细分行业在减排公平性和效率性上的差异将工业9个细分行业分为四类。其中,石油、钢铁制造业和电力行业属于"高效高公平行业";化工、建材制造业属于"低效高公平行业";采掘业属于"高效不公平行业";纺织、轻工和机电制造业属于"低效不公平行业"。中国应针对不同类型的行业制定出相应的减排战略,将减排重点放在各行业最具潜力的方面。最后,文章对实现中国工业碳排放达峰管理提出了几点政策建议。     

Potential flood hazard due to urban expansion in the karst mountainous region of North China

Since China’s economic reform in 1978, the cities of China have experienced rapid expansion and urbanization, thereby profoundly transforming the spatial pattern of urban land use in the karst regions, particularly in the urban mountainous area within city, and urbanization has had and continues to have a negative impact on urban mountain area in cities of China. With the rapid development of urbanization and civilization in these regions, environmental degradation has been increasingly serious, especially in the urban karst mountain area, thereby resulting in the destruction and breakage of urban hills that induce serious natural hazard, i.e., flood hazard.     

Scenario-based urban growth allocation in a rapidly developing area: a modeling approach for sustainability analysis of an urban-coastal coupled system

Being located in an urban-coastal coupled system, the Hashtpar City is one of the most attractive areas for urban construction, tourism, agricultural activities and environmental protection in northern Iran. To resolve the issues between land developers and environmental conservation agencies, we conducted a scenario-based urban growth allocation procedure through the SLEUTH model. The scenarios consisted of ‘business as usual’, ‘managed urban growth’ and ‘environmentally sound growth’ that were introduced by modification of model parameters and exclusion layer. The resultant urban growth arrangements were compared for composition and configuration attributes of landscape patterns. According to the results, the pattern of urbanized lands under managed urban growth option demonstrated better connectivity and compactness of urban patches, while the two other scenarios generated a highly fragmented pattern. The managed urban growth can be considered as a compromised solution between other scenarios since it simultaneously takes into accounts both developers and environment protectors points’ of views. On this basis, a combination of centralized and decentralized urban land use planning is a recommended strategy for our urban-coastal environment to fulfill the purposes of a sustainable development process. The findings of the present article suggest that further expansion of the major urban core in the targeted area should be prohibited since it can lead to an urban patch with considerable physical size and noticeable ecological footprint.     

Requirements for estimation of doses from contaminants dispersed by a ‘dirty bomb’ explosion in an urban area

The ARGOS decision support system is currently being extended to enable estimation of the consequences of terror attacks involving chemical, biological, nuclear and radiological substances. This paper presents elements of the framework that will be applied in ARGOS to calculate the dose contributions from contaminants dispersed in the atmosphere after a ‘dirty bomb’ explosion. Conceptual methodologies are presented which describe the various dose components on the basis of knowledge of time-integrated contaminant air concentrations. Also the aerosolisation and atmospheric dispersion in a city of different types of conceivable contaminants from a ‘dirty bomb’ are discussed.     

Multivariate modeling of agricultural river water abstraction via novel integrated-wavelet methods in various climatic conditions

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Water resource management in the agricultural sector is a necessity that profoundly impacts water resources conservation for future generations. With...     

An assessment of urban vulnerability in the Amazon Delta and Estuary: a multi-criterion index of flood exposure,socio-economic conditions and infrastructure

The Amazon Delta and Estuary (ADE) is a region of continental and global ecological importance. Controversy, many of the basic infrastructure and services essential for quality of life and sustainable development of this delta are absent. Using a conceptual model to define socio-economic vulnerability in the urban ADE, a thorough assessment of indicators including sanitation services, housing conditions, household income, population, flood risk and unplanned settlements was conducted in 41 cities at the census sector scale (n = 2938). A multi criterion index was applied to classify urban vulnerability from three dimensions: flood exposure, socio-economic sensitivity and infrastructure. This is the first study to examine urban vulnerability within and between urban areas of the ADE. Results indicated that most of the urban sectors of the ADE are exposed to potential risks due to a combination of flood hazards, poverty and basic structural deficiencies such as insufficient drinking water or inadequate waste water collection, with several sectors being afflicted by similar problems. The assessment of vulnerability indicates that 60–90 % of the urban population live in conditions of moderate to high degree of vulnerability. The ADE cities presented a pattern where vulnerability increases from city center to their newly developed urban areas. Inadequate planning coupled with rapid urbanization has contributed to the development of unplanned settlements in almost half of the urban sectors of the ADE. Combined, these factors contribute to widespread socio-economic vulnerability along the urban spaces of the ADE, increasing exposure to health risks and more frequent seasonal and stochastic events such as storm surges and high flooding levels.     

E-participation for environmental sustainability in transitional urban China

Using information and communication technologies (ICTs), e-participation is a tool that promotes the inclusion of the public in participative and deliberative decision-making processes, thus contributing to a transformation of the interaction between government and citizens in environmental governance and sustainable development. In a number of Chinese cities, citizens increasingly draw on ICTs to promote environmental sustainability and to encourage community-based actions aimed to address various environmental concerns. The potential success of e-participation and the role of ICTs in China has, however, not been well explored. The objective of this study is to understand the role that ICTs can play in promoting public participation about environmental sustainability issues in urban China. Based on an online survey with 630 respondents, the study aims to: (1) analyze what public motivations, perception/attitudes and actions drive environmental e-participation; (2) identify barriers to e-participation, and (3) assess the different applications and functions of ICT for citizen participation in environmental sustainability. The analysis illustrates how ICTs have helped the public to obtain sensitive information about sustainability issues, to mobilize people and to gain media coverage for their actions. The central finding is that new technologies have taken citizen engagement to new heights online. More specifically, the age of ICTs has unleashed a stronger public voice on environmental governance and sustainability issues in urban China, which does not go unnoticed by the Chinese state authorities.     

The distribution of 210Pb in human bone and its impact on methods for the retrospective estimation of 222Rn exposure from in vivo measurements

It is possible to estimate radon exposure to man retrospectively by the in vivo measurement of the decay product (210)Pb, which accumulates in the bones. For in vivo methods, knowledge of the distribution of (210)Pb in the skeleton is needed to determine the optimal site for measurement, the skull or the knee. In this study the activity of (210)Pb in a variety of bone samples from 3 individuals have been measured in vitro using underground gamma-ray spectrometry. The individuals were unlikely to have had elevated intakes of Rn. These measurements give baseline data on the bone massic activity of (210)Pb. They show that the massic activity is similar for each of these people and there are similar massic activities of (210)Pb in the skull and the knee of the 2 individuals for which the skull was measured. Additionally for 2 of the individuals trabecular and cortical bone were separated and massic activities were found to be strongly correlated indicating that the (210)Pb is associated with the hydroxyapatite.     

Estimation of land surface temperature using different retrieval methods for studying the spatiotemporal variations of surface urban heat and cold islands in Indian Punjab

Spatial patterns of land surface temperature (LST), surface urban heat island (SUHI), surface urban cold island (SUCI), and their seasonal variations during January (winter) and September (summer) were analyzed over the three cities of Indian Punjab (Balachaur, Ludhiana and Bathinda) using Landsat 5, 7 and 8 satellite data of the years 1991, 2001, 2011, and 2018. Urban hot spots and Urban Thermal Field Variance Index (UTFVI) were used to measure the ecological environment of these cities. Land surface temperature was retrieved from Landsat satellite data using Plank equation, mono-window algorithm (MWA), single-channel algorithm (SCA), and radiative transfer equation. The LST derived using these algorithms was validated with MODIS-LST product. The relationship between LST derived from Landsat 5, 7 and 8 using the four methods and MODIS-LST product was higher with the SCA algorithm (R²?>?0.75). Land surface temperature was significantly positively correlated with built-up but significantly negatively correlated with vegetation. The surface urban heat intensity was higher during September than January, and it was higher in Ludhiana followed by Bathinda and Balachaur, irrespective of the season. Besides built-up area and population density, soil moisture availability in surrounding rural areas has significant impact on increasing surface urban heat intensity during September than January. The SUCIs were formed in the center of Bathinda city during January 1991, but these were in Ludhiana and Balachaur cities during January 2011. The most critical areas for ecological environment based on UTFVI were identified and the critical UTFVI values (>?0.020) were highest in Bathinda city followed by Balachaur and Ludhiana cities. These results suggest that SUHIs and SUCIs are influenced by seasons and the mitigating plans to counteract the overheating of urban areas should be formulated taking into account soil moisture availability in surrounding rural areas, landscape pattern, seasonal variations, local climatic conditions, urban growth, and development plan etc.

     

Correction to: Multivariate modeling of agricultural river water abstraction via novel integrated-wavelet methods in various climatic conditions

Environment, Development and Sustainability - The authors would like to apologize for inadvertent mistakes in this article.     

Using stated preference methods to assess environmental impacts of forest biomass power plants in Portugal

As a renewable energy source, the use of forest biomass for electricity generation is advantageous in comparison with fossil fuels; however, the activity of forest biomass power plants causes adverse impacts, affecting particularly neighbouring communities. The main objective of this study is to estimate the effects of the activity of forest biomass power plants on the welfare of two groups of stakeholders, namely local residents and the general population. To this end, we apply two stated preference methods: contingent valuation and discrete choice experiments, respectively. The former method was applied to estimate the minimum compensation residents of neighbouring communities of two forest biomass power plants in Portugal would be willing to accept. The latter method was applied among the general population to estimate their willingness to pay to avoid specific environmental impacts. The results show that the presence of the selected facilities affects individuals’ well-being. On the other hand, in the discrete choice experiments conducted among the general population all impacts considered were valued, in particular odour and fauna and flora impacts. The results of this study stress the importance of performing an equity analysis of the welfare effects on different groups of stakeholders from the installation of forest biomass power plants, as their effects on welfare are location and impact specific. Policy makers should take into account the views of all stakeholders either directly or indirectly involved when deciding crucial issues regarding the sitting of new forest biomass power plants, in order to achieve an efficient and equitable outcome.     

Procedures for estimation of modelling uncertainty in air quality assessment

The main objectives of this work focus, firstly, on a review of the current existent methodologies to estimate air quality modelling uncertainty, and, secondly, in the preparation of guidelines for modelling uncertainty estimation, which can be used by local and regional authorities responsible for air quality management. From the application exercise, it was concluded that it is possible to define a subset of statistical parameters able to reproduce the general uncertainties estimation. Concerning the quality indicators defined by EU directives, the results show that the legislated uncertainty estimation measures are ambiguous and inadequate in several aspects, mainly in what concerns the error measures for hourly and daily indicators based on the highest observed concentration. A relative error at the percentile correspondent to the allowed number of exceedances of the limit value was suggested and tested, showing that is a more robust and appropriate parameter for model performance evaluation.     

Direct methods for radionuclides measurement in water environment

The paper is devoted to the direct method of anthropogenic radionuclide measurement in the water environment. Opportunities of application of submersible gamma-spectrometers for in situ underwater measurements of gamma-radiating nuclides and also the direct method for 90Sr detection are considered.     

Comparison of different methods for uranium determination in water

Photometry, laser photometry, liquid scintillation (LSC), gamma spectrometry and alpha spectrometry were used for estimating waterborne uranium concentration. The chemical procedures applied were pre-concentration, liquid extraction, chromatographic resin extraction and precipitation. Our results show that laser photometry is an easy and accurate method capable of estimating low uranium concentrations, parts of micrograms per litre. It is not applicable for higher concentrations, difficult water matrixes and isotope determination. The classical photometry is complementary, resolving the problem related to high concentrations, practically up to 10 mg/l. Alpha and gamma spectrometry resolve the problem of precise isotope determination, but with the disadvantage of hard chemical preparation and long measurement times. An intermediate method is LSC, with the problem of isotope estimation, due to poor energy resolution.     

Flood risk management in the USA: implications of national flood insurance program changes for social justice

Regional Environmental Change - The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), an essential element of US flood management, has been modified by recent legislation to make it financially solvent....     

Investigating the current status of geospatial data and urban growth indicators in Jordan and Irbid municipality: implications for urban and environmental planning

The increasing levels of urbanization with intensive use of resources became a common problem across all countries. Jordan is a country with limited resources that require periodic assessment and frequent monitoring. The geospatial data, maps and urban growth indicators are fundamental requirements to monitor and evaluate cities expansion, development and resources use. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to investigate the availability and accessibility of geospatial data needed for city’s urban planning research and calculate recent urban growth indicators for Greater Irbid Municipality (GIM). All National governmental institutions were visited and surveyed. Landsat-8 images, geographic information system, classification workflow in ENVI-5 and statistical methods were used to assess selected urban growth indicators for GIM. The results showed that only one-fourth of Jordan national authorities use spatial data for urban planning. Researchers are expected to face complexities in identifying the available national geospatial data, accessing and acquisition of the available data with sufficient accuracy and comprehensiveness. The GIM showed lack of certain geospatial data (land use categories, population and built-up densities). These data were calculated, and results showed that the green, urban, open space densities for the year 2015 were 49, 25 and 26%, respectively. The population and built-up densities relative to the urban area was 7879 capita/km² and 20%, respectively. Therefore, the GIM is a dense city and its land use categories need to be monitored. Funds are needed to develop complete, comprehensive and accurate national geodata infrastructure that are governed with policies and regulations to facilitate researchers’ mission to support sustainability.     

Urbanization and sustainability: challenges and strategies for sustainable urban development in Bangladesh

Like other developing countries, urbanization in Bangladesh is a growing phenomenon, which is steady in nature but fretfully affects urban sustainability in the wake of lacking in good governance. Despite urban authorities are concerned about this issue, they often fail to address the problems due to the fact of uncontrollable and unpredictable rural to urban migration, and negligence of urban poor’s sustainable living and access to basic services. Virtually the rural poverty problem has been transposed to urban areas, particularly in Dhaka City, Bangladesh. Inadequacy of infrastructural services, basic amenities and environmental goods; environmental degradation; traffic jam and accidents; violence and socioeconomic insecurity are the major challenges which are created through rapid urbanization. This paper provides a general understanding of urbanization in Bangladesh and tries to embrace related sustainability issues and challenges hindrance to sustainable urban development in Dhaka city. In addition, it presents a brief case study of water supply in Dhaka city which introduces an issue of ‘system hijack’. The paper concludes providing some strategies that might be helpful to the policy makers in formulating development policies for sustainable urban services.     

Evaluation of selected monitoring methods for formaldehyde in domestic environments

Varioys analytical methodologies for the monitoring of formaldehyde (CH₂O) concentrations in domestic environments have been developed and evaluated. A modified CEA Instruments, Inc., analyzer has near-real-time CH₃O-specific analysis capability with an 0.01 mg/m³ detection limit. A solid sorbent, 13X molecular sieve has been utilized in a pumped collection unit with a demonstrated 0.03–12.5 mg/m³ linear dynamic range using sampling periods of ≤ 15 min. The development of screening-type techniques has included (1) a semipermeable-membrane passive sampler for measurements of average CH₂O concentrations over 8–24-h periods, and (2) a visual colorimetric analysis method for semiquantitative CH₂O determinations using solid chemical reagents. A preliminary field evaluation has been completed. The results show excellent agreement between the new CH₂O monitoring methods and a reference sampling and analysis technique. A generation apparatus for the production of CH₂O vapor is also reported with a demonstrated linear dynamic range between 0.003 and 12.5 mg/m³.