Spatial variability of soil <Superscript>137</Superscript>Cs in the South Caspian region

In a comprehensive program of environmental radioactivity survey in South Caspian region,¹³⁷Cs inventories in soil has been measured at more than 50 sites in the Iranian northern province of Guilan. This has been the first wide-range survey of soil radionuclide inventories in the narrow band sensitive ecosystem of south Caspian shore. Radioactivity measurements were carried out using HPGe gamma-spectrometry system. The activity concentration of ¹³⁷Cs in surface soil exhibits a mean value of 17.6 ± 9.4 Bq kg⁻¹, with a range of 2.3–41.7 Bq kg⁻¹. In many sites, split-level sampling method has been applied down to a depth of 20 cm. There were found generally two profiles. Most profiles exhibit a negative exponential distribution, while others revealed a clear subsurface peak in 5–10-cm layer. Cesium deposition in the study area has been estimated to be in the range of 0.38–2.9 kBq m⁻² with a mean value of 1.7 kBq m⁻². Distribution patterns of ¹³⁷Cs concentration levels and deposition values have been estimated using Kriging interpolation method. Observed hotspots in deposition pattern coincide with areas of higher precipitation.     

Application Of Artificial Neural Network Models To Analyse The Relationships Between Gammarus pulex L. (Crustacea, Amphipoda) And River Characteristics

This study aimed at analysing the relationship between river characteristics and abundance of Gammarus pulex. To this end, four methods which can identify the relative contribution and/or the contribution profile of the input variables in neural networks describing the habitat preferences of this species were compared: (i) the ‘PaD‘ (‘Partial Derivatives‘) method consists of a calculation of the partial derivatives of the output in relation to the input variables; (ii) the ‘Weights‘method is a computation using the connection weights of the backpropagation Artificial Neural Networks; (iii) the ‘Perturb‘method analyses the effect of a perturbation of the input variables on the output variable; (iv) the ‘Profile‘ method is a successive variation of one input variable while the others are kept constant at a fixed set of values. The dataset consisted of 179 samples, collected over a three-year period in the Zwalm river basin in Flanders, Belgium. Twenty-four environmental variables as well as the log-transformed abundance of Gammarus pulex were used in this study. The different contribution methods gave similar results concerning the order of importance of the input variables. Moreover, the stability of the methods was confirmed by gradually removing variables. Only in a limited number of cases a shift in the relative importance of the remaining input variables could be observed. Nevertheless, differences in sensitivity and stability of the methods were detected, probably as a result of the different calculation procedures. In this respect, the ‘PaD‘method made a more severe discrimination between minor and major contributing environmental variables in comparison to the ‘Weights‘, ‘Profile‘ and ‘Perturb‘ methods. From an ecological point of view, the input variables ‘Ammonium‘ and to a smaller extent ‘COD‘, were selected by these methods as dominant river characteristics for the prediction of the abundance of Gammarus pulex in this study area.     

The Precautionary Principle as a Robust Cost-Effectiveness Problem

This paper offers an interpretation of the precautionary principle in terms of a safety target that a decision-maker has to reach at a minimal cost in a robust way. A two-period model is used. The precautionary principle corresponds to a situation in which the decision-maker, facing an ex ante indecision, is not able to reach a safe target from the initial condition in a worst-case framework. However, he can efficiently succeed whenever the uncertainty at the second period is revealed to him. An example coping with the management of a renewable resource illustrates the general results of the paper.

富营养化湖泊叶绿素a时空变化特征及其影响因素分析

基于内蒙古乌梁素湖区20个监测点5、7、9、11月的监测数据,分析水体中叶绿素a浓度时空变化情况。同时,分析水体中总氮、总磷、氨氮、硝酸盐氮、COD、p H、总有机碳与叶绿素a的相关性。结果显示,叶绿素a浓度呈现由西北向东南逐渐减少的趋势,而浓度峰值出现在7月下旬,低值出现在11月下旬。相关因素与叶绿素a的相关性呈复杂性,线性拟合结果显示,与COD没有明显相关性;与总有机碳呈弱负相关性,与p H呈负相关性;而与总磷、总氮、氨氮、硝酸盐氮呈正相关性。期望该研究为干旱区湖泊水体富营养化控制和水资源管理提供科学依据。     

The emperor's new clothes — Reflections on strategic environmental assessment (SEA) practice in South Africa

This paper presents the results of research which evaluated the performance of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) practice in South Africa in order to develop understanding of how SEA functions within a developing country with a voluntary SEA system. The research applied a combination of methods in a mixed research strategy, including a macro level survey of the SEA system together with case study reviews exploring micro level application. Three main ‘system features’ emerged, namely expansion of voluntary practice, diversity in practice and general ineffectiveness. The results also highlight a number of ‘application features’ such as a lack of focus due to an inability to deal with the concepts of ‘sustainability’ and ‘significance’, as well as poor understanding and integration with decision-making processes. Moreover, it emerged that none of the case studies seem to have conducted an ‘assessment’ per se, but rather provided a framework for strategic decision-making. The paper puts forward a number of interrelated explanations for these system and application features. In a parallel to the fable of the ‘emperor's new clothes’, SEA in South Africa appears to be regarded as the answer to all environmental problems, whilst being ineffective in practice.     

Diurnal variations in bacterial and viral production in Cochin estuary, India

Microbes play a central role in the decomposition and remineralization of organic matter and recycling of nutrients in aquatic environments. In this study, we examined the influence of physical, chemical, and biological parameters on the rate of bacterial production (BP) and viral production (VP) with respect to primary production over a diurnal period in Cochin estuary. Time series measurements were made every 2 h for 12 h (6 a.m.–6 p.m.) during periods of low and high salinities. The light intensity as photosynthetically active radiation, temperature, salinity, nutrients like NO₃–N, SiO₄–Si, and PO₄–P, and chlorophyll a (Chl a) were measured along with BP, VP, and net primary production (NPP). NPP showed a strong positive correlation with light and Chl a (r ²?=?0.56 and 0.47, respectively), while VP showed a strong positive correlation with light, salinity, and Chl a (r ²?=?0.37, 0.58, and 0.37, respectively) and a negative correlation with BP (r ²?=??0.39) at P?≤?0.05. We observed a diurnal pattern in BP but did not have any significant correlation with light. Similar diurnal pattern was seen in VP, the peak of which was in succession with BP, suggesting that virus-mediated lysis plays an important role in loss processes of bacteria in Cochin estuary. The results of our study highlight the light-dependent and physicochemical-dependent diurnal variation in virioplankton production in a tropical estuarine ecosystem.     

Ozone effects on three Sambucus species

The onset and development of symptoms of three Sambucus species, S. ebulus, S. nigra and S. racemosa were studied in 2002 under three different experimental conditions, in charcoal filtered air (CF), and in two ozone enriched treatment: non filtered air plus 40 ppb ozone (NF+), and non filtered air plus 70 ppb ozone (NF++). The herb S. ebulus was more sensitive than the shrubs S. racemosa and S. nigra. Some plants of the three species showed visible injury below the AOT40 threshold of 10,000 ppb·h, established for protection of vegetation. Ozone produced a decrease in chlorophyll content in S. ebulus, and impaired both stomatal conductance and net photosynthesis in S. ebulus and S. nigra. A complementary study in 2004 with S. ebulus, confirmed a decrease in chlorophyll content after fumigation, associated to a decrease in N content of the leaves. Since S. ebulus is a widespread species in Europe and it is very sensitive to ozone, it could be a very appropriate plant for the biomonitoring studies across large areas in this continent.     

Interpretation of roadside PM10 monitoring data from Sunderland,United Kingdom

Roadside PM₁₀ has been monitored by Partisol® at three sitesin Sunderland between August 1997 and February 1998. The sites chosen were an inner city kerbside site; a roadside site adjacentto a dual carriageway on the outskirts of Sunderland with an openaspect; and a rural site.The results indicate that there is a seasonal variation in the relationship between the sites in terms of monitored PM₁₀.In the winter there is a poor correlation between the sites whereas in the summer significant correlations are obtained. Of the sites monitored PM₁₀ is consistently highest at the inner city roadside site. During the summer, exceedances of theU.K. 50 g m^-3 standard (DETR, 2000) are associated with conditions suitable for the build-up of photochemical pollutionhowever during the winter period exceedances are recorded duringa variety of weather conditions.At the dual carriageway site PM_2.5 has also been recorded and contributions to measured PM₁₀ are 77% in summer and68% in winter. The results illustrate a number of inconsistencies between this study utilising the Partisol® andothers reporting results where PM₁₀ has been monitored by TEOM®.     

Fuzzy-based computational intelligence to support screening decision in environmental impact assessment: A complementary tool for a case-by-case project appraisal

Screening is a key stage in environmental impact assessment (EIA), but the most common approach based on policy delineation are inherently arbitrary. On the other hand, a case-by-case approach can be complex, slow, and costly. This paper introduces a computational intelligence based on hybrid fuzzy inference system (h-FIS), combining data-driven and expert knowledge, in order to assess its capability of supporting a case-by-case screening in project appraisal. For empirical research, a dataset with appraisal variables of projects highway was made available by a Brazilian environmental protection agency (EPA). Firstly, using this dataset, multivariate analyses were performed to find criteria (x_i) capable of indicating statistically significant differences among projects, previously screened by EPA experts into three types (simplified, preliminary, and comprehensive) of environmental impact study (EIS). Then, h-FIS was built through machine learning, using the FRBCS·W algorithm, with x_i as input predictors and the type of EIS as the output target. The performances of alternative approaches were compared using cross-validation accuracy tests and the kappa index, with a significance level of 0.05. As a result, the h-FIS achieved accuracy of 92.6% and a kappa index of 0.88, which represented almost perfect agreement between the screening decision provided by the h-FIS and the one performed by the EPA experts. In conclusion, the fuzzy-based computational intelligence was capable of dealing with the complexity involved in screening decision. Therefore h-FIS be considered a promising complementary tool for a case-by-case project appraisal in EIA. For further advances, future research should assess other algorithms, such as genetic fuzzy systems, in order to strengthen the proposed system and make it generally applicable in other projects subject to EIA.     

Transfer of natural and anthropogenic radionuclides to ants, bryophytes and lichen in a semi-natural ecosystem

Few data are available to quantify the transfer of both natural and anthropogenic radionuclides to detritivorous invertebrates to facilitate estimation of the internal dose to such biota in models used to assess radiation exposure. To enhance the available data, activity concentrations of ¹³⁷Cs, ⁴⁰K, ⁹⁰Sr, ^239?+?240Pu, ²⁴¹Am, ²³⁵U and ²³⁸U were measured in ants (Formicidae) and corresponding undisturbed soil collected from the Zlatibor mountain in Serbia and ant/soil concentration ratios (CR) calculated. The ²⁴¹Am concentration ratios for ants were fourfold higher than those calculated for ants in a previous study whereas they are similar to the more numerous data previously reported for a range of detritivorous invertebrates in other studies. CR values for ¹³⁷Cs in ants were similar to the few other reported values and slightly lower than those for a range of detritivorous invertebrates. Those for ^239?+?240Pu were slightly higher than those for ants in two other studies but they were close to upper limit of a range of data reported for detritivorous invertebrates. All the CR values will be included in a future revision of the ERICA Tool database and will particularly improve the information available for uranium.     

The potential effects of climate change on the distribution and productivity of Cunninghamia lanceolata in China

Climate changes may have immediate implications for forest productivity and may produce dramatic shifts in tree species distributions in the future. Quantifying these implications is significant for both scientists and managers. Cunninghamia lanceolata is an important coniferous timber species due to its fast growth and wide distribution in China. This paper proposes a methodology aiming at enhancing the distribution and productivity of C. lanceolata against a background of climate change. First, we simulated the potential distributions and establishment probabilities of C. lanceolata based on a species distribution model. Second, a process-based model, the PnET-II model, was calibrated and its parameterization of water balance improved. Finally, the improved PnET-II model was used to simulate the net primary productivity (NPP) of C. lanceolata. The simulated NPP and potential distribution were combined to produce an integrated indicator, the estimated total NPP, which serves to comprehensively characterize the productivity of the forest under climate change. The results of the analysis showed that (1) the distribution of C. lanceolata will increase in central China, but the mean probability of establishment will decrease in the 2050s; (2) the PnET-II model was improved, calibrated, and successfully validated for the simulation of the NPP of C. lanceolata in China; and (3) all scenarios predicted a reduction in total NPP in the 2050s, with a markedly lower reduction under the a2 scenario than under the b2 scenario. The changes in NPP suggested that forest productivity will show a large decrease in southern China and a mild increase in central China. All of these findings could improve our understanding of the impact of climate change on forest ecosystem structure and function and could provide a basis for policy-makers to apply adaptive measures and overcome the unfavorable influences of climate change.     

Assessment of regional climatic changes in the Eastern Himalayan region: a study using multi-satellite remote sensing data sets

In this study, an attempt has been made to capture the sensitivity of a mountainous region to elevation-dependent warming and the response of a glacier-laden surface to increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosol concentration. Some of the changes Sikkim has undergone due to urban sprawl are as follows: an increase of ~0.7?±?0.46 °C temperature in the past 40 years at an altitude of 5.5 km; a 2.21 km²/year rate of loss of glacierised area in the past 33 years; an increase in absorbed longwave radiation (6?±?2.41 W/m²); an increase in heat fluxes (2?±?0.97 W/m²); a decrease in albedo during the last 30 years; an increase in the concentrations of carbon dioxide (4.42 %), methane (0.61 %), ozone (0.67 %) and black carbon column optical depth (7.19 %); a decrease in carbon monoxide (2.61 %) and an increase in aerosol optical depth (19.16 %) during the last decade; a decrease in precipitation, water yield, discharge and groundwater; and an increase in evapotranspiration during 1971–2005. Detection of three climate signals (1976, 1997 and 2005) in the entire analysis is the quantification of the fact that the climate of Sikkim is moving away from its inter-annual variability. An increase in temperature (0.23 °C/decade) at higher altitude (~5.5 km), suppression of precipitation, decreasing water availability and rapid loss of glacierised area are the evidences of the fact that air pollution is playing a significant role in bringing about regional climatic changes in Sikkim. In this study, change detection method has been used for the first time for the estimation of change in a glacierised area of the region.     

Assessment of environmental radioactivity for Batman, Turkey

The province of Batman, located in southern Anatolia, has a population of approximately 500,000. To our knowledge, there exists no information regarding the environmental radioactivity in this province. Therefore, gamma activity measurements in soil, building materials and water samples and an indoor radon survey have been carried out in the Batman province. The mean activity concentrations of the natural radionuclides (²²⁶Ra, ²³²Th and ⁴⁰K) and a fission product (¹³⁷Cs) were 35 ± 8, 25 ± 10, 274 ± 167 and 12 ± 7 Bq kg^???1, respectively, in the soil samples. The concentrations of ²²⁶Ra, ²³²Th and ⁴⁰K in the selected building materials ranged from 18 to 48 Bq kg^???1, 8 to 49 Bq kg^???1 and 68 to 477 Bq kg^???1, respectively. All the calculated radium equivalent (Ra_eq) activity values of the building material samples are lower than the limit of 370 Bq kg^???1, equivalent to a γ-dose of 1.5 mSv year^???1. The activity concentrations of ²²⁶Ra, ²³²Th and ⁴⁰K in tap waters collected from the study area were determined with mean specific activity concentrations of 42 ± 15, 35 ± 9 and 524 ± 190 mBq L^???1, respectively. Indoor radon measurements were made at 95 dwellings in Batman using a CR-39 detector. The radon concentration levels were found to vary from 23 to 145 Bq m^???3. The arithmetic mean of the measured radon concentration levels was found to be 84 Bq m^???3 with a standard deviation value of 23 Bq m^???3. The measurement results obtained in this study did not significantly differ from those taken in other parts of the country. The data generated in this study can be used to determine whether the Batman province is in a normal or high background radiation area and provides a valuable database for future estimations of the impact of radioactive pollution.     

Patchy distribution fields: sampling distance unit of a zigzag survey and reconstruction adequacy

A mathematical model was used to examine the effects of choosingvarious units of sampling distance of a zigzag survey on the adequacy of reconstructing patchy distribution fields. The modelsimulates fish or plankton patches (or gaps) of different shapesand spatial orientations, and an acoustic survey by zigzag or parallel transects along which a unit of sampling distance is set. Adequacy of the reconstructed fields to those originally generated is evaluated by calculating their correlations (r). A priori information on the autocorrelation radii for the field in the directions of the survey (R_s) and perpendiculardirection (R_p) allows optimisation of the survey design andthe algorithm of data analysis. A field can be reconstructed properly (r² > 0.70) if the distance between transects D < (1.0–1.5)R_s and the unit of sampling distance d < (1.0–1.5)R_p. A posteriori determination of patchorientation allows reconstruction of the best field attainable onthe basis of the survey data. In cases of field movement, if thedimension of patches in the direction of movement exceeds that ofa surveyed area, a survey in the opposite direction gives bestresults; in contrast, if the dimension of moving patches is smaller than that of a surveyed area, it is reasonable to carryout a survey in the same direction. The criterion remains validwhen a survey is carried out by zigzag transects and a unit ofsampling distance is set along them. The results obtained indicate that, for a fixed transect spacing and a given number of sampling points on each full transect, zigzag pattern allowsless adequate reconstruction of an original distribution field (in cases of both immovable and movable fields) than corresponding parallel pattern.     

Precision,accuracy, and application of diver-towed underwater GPS receivers

Diver-towed global positioning systems (GPS) handhelds have been used for a few years in underwater monitoring studies. We modeled the accuracy of this method using the software KABKURR originally developed by the University of Rostock for fishing and marine engineering. Additionally, three field experiments were conducted to estimate the precision of the method and apply it in the field: (1) an experiment of underwater transects from 5 to 35 m in the Southern Chile fjord region, (2) a transect from 5 to 30 m under extreme climatic conditions in the Antarctic, and (3) an underwater tracking experiment at Lake Ranco, Southern Chile. The coiled cable length in relation to water depth is the main error source besides the signal quality of the GPS under calm weather conditions. The forces used in the model resulted in a displacement of 2.3 m in a depth of 5 m, 3.2 m at a 10-m depth, 4.6 m in a 20-m depth, 5.5 m at a 30-m depth, and 6.8 m in a 40-m depth, when only an additional 0.5 m cable extension was used compared to the water depth. The GPS buoy requires good buoyancy in order to keep its position at the water surface when the diver is trying to minimize any additional cable extension error. The diver has to apply a tensile force for shortening the cable length at the lower cable end. Repeated diving along transect lines from 5 to 35 m resulted only in small deviations independent of water depth indicating the precision of the method for monitoring studies. Routing of given reference points with a Garmin 76CSx handheld placed in an underwater housing resulted in mean deviances less than 6 m at a water depth of 10 m. Thus, we can confirm that diver-towed GPS handhelds give promising results when used for underwater research in shallow water and open a wide field of applicability, but no submeter accuracy is possible due to the different error sources.     

Response of non-point source pollutant loads to climate change in the Shitoukoumen reservoir catchment

The impacts of climate change on streamflow and non-point source pollutant loads in the Shitoukoumen reservoir catchment are predicted by combining a general circulation model (HadCM3) with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. A statistical downscaling model was used to generate future local scenarios of meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation. Then, the downscaled meteorological variables were used as input to the SWAT hydrological model calibrated and validated with observations, and the corresponding changes of future streamflow and non-point source pollutant loads in Shitoukoumen reservoir catchment were simulated and analyzed. Results show that daily temperature increases in three future periods (2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099) relative to a baseline of 1961–1990, and the rate of increase is 0.63°C per decade. Annual precipitation also shows an apparent increase of 11 mm per decade. The calibration and validation results showed that the SWAT model was able to simulate well the streamflow and non-point source pollutant loads, with a coefficient of determination of 0.7 and a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of about 0.7 for both the calibration and validation periods. The future climate change has a significant impact on streamflow and non-point source pollutant loads. The annual streamflow shows a fluctuating upward trend from 2010 to 2099, with an increase rate of 1.1 m³ s⁻¹ per decade, and a significant upward trend in summer, with an increase rate of 1.32 m³ s⁻¹ per decade. The increase in summer contributes the most to the increase of annual load compared with other seasons. The annual NH₄⁺-N load into Shitoukoumen reservoir shows a significant downward trend with a decrease rate of 40.6 t per decade. The annual TP load shows an insignificant increasing trend, and its change rate is 3.77 t per decade. The results of this analysis provide a scientific basis for effective support of decision makers and strategies of adaptation to climate change.     

Establishing minimum water level for Plastiras reservoir (Greece) combining water quality modelling with landscape aesthetics

A water quality model (MERES) is applied in the multi-purpose reservoir of Plastiras in Greece. The model was calibrated with limited field data using the standard trial and error procedure; next, it was applied for four scenarios of reservoir operation, which correspond to four values of minimum water levels (MWL). Model results were combined with landscape aesthetics to establish a “safe” MWL in the reservoir. MWL was proposed to be +784 m, a value that ensures a very good water quality by retaining the reservoir in the status of “a little beyond oligotrophic” and a very good quality of landscape with an acceptable area of dead zones; it also ensures an annual release of 127.5 hm³ of water within a reliability level of 90%. This quantity can be considered as acceptable from the water supply point of view.     

Combining policy instruments for sustainable energy systems: An assessment with the GMM model

An assessment of the impact of an illustrative portfolio of policy instruments that address different sustainability concerns in the global energy system in areas of climate change, air pollution and introduction of renewable-energy resources is conducted. The effects of a policy set containing three instruments, implemented either individually or in combination, were examined. The policy instruments under examination in this work include: Cap-and-Trade policies imposing a CO₂ emission reduction target on the global energy system, a renewable portfolio standard that forces a minimum share of renewable electricity generation, and the internalisation of external costs of power generation associated with local pollution. Implementation of these policy instruments significantly changes the structure and environmental performance of the energy sector, and particularly the structure of the electric-generation sector. The positive effects are amplified when the policy instruments are simultaneously applied, illustrating the potential for synergies between these energy-policy domains. The analysis has been conducted with the multi-regional, energy-system Global MARKAL Model (GMM), a “bottom-up” partial-equilibrium model that provides a detailed representation of energy technologies and endogenizes technology learning. ^★A preliminary version of this paper has been presented at the 6th IAEE European Energy Conference on “Modelling in Energy Economics and Policy”, 1–3 September 2004, ETH Zürich, Switzerland.     

Finding threatened forest areas in the central volcanic mountain range conservation area in Costa Rica

The degree at which tropical forests are exposed to human pressure is spatially dependent. Population density, proximity to roads, terrain slope, logging activities and land distribution projects are well known factors inducing deforestation and forest degradation in Latin America. Using expert knowledge to weight these threat factors and a Geographical Information System for spatial modeling, a multi-criteria analysis procedure is presented, that allows stratifying a study region in categories of deforestation threat. The procedure was implemented in the Central Volcanic Mountain Range Conservation Area (CVMRCA) in Costa Rica with the purpose of finding areas with a combination of physical and socioeconomic characteristics that is particularly predisposing to a high probability of deforestation. To validate the map, the CVMRCA was stratified in categories of deforestation risk, and the result was superposed to historical deforestation data of the period 1986–1996. The good correlation between risk category and historical deforestation (r = 0.91, p < 0.001) indicates that the map can be used as a decision support tool for defining priority areas for conservation action.     

An Oligopoly Game of CDR Strategy Deployment in a Steady-State Net-Zero Emission Climate Regime

In this paper, we propose a simple oligopoly game model to represent the interactions between coalitions of countries in deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies in a steady-state net-zero emission climate regime that could take place by the end of the twenty-first century. The emission quotas and CDR activities obtained in the solution of this steady-state model could then be used as a target for end-of-period conditions in a dynamic integrated assessment analysis studying the transition to 2100. More precisely, we analyze a steady-state situation where m coalitions exist and behave as m players in a game of supplying emission rights on an international emission trading system. The quotas supplied by a coalition must correspond to the amount of CO₂ captured through CDR activities in the corresponding world region. We use an extension of the computable general equilibrium model GEMINI-E3 to calibrate the payoff functions and compute an equilibrium solution in the noncooperative game.