The Precautionary Principle as a Robust Cost-Effectiveness Problem

This paper offers an interpretation of the precautionary principle in terms of a safety target that a decision-maker has to reach at a minimal cost in a robust way. A two-period model is used. The precautionary principle corresponds to a situation in which the decision-maker, facing an ex ante indecision, is not able to reach a safe target from the initial condition in a worst-case framework. However, he can efficiently succeed whenever the uncertainty at the second period is revealed to him. An example coping with the management of a renewable resource illustrates the general results of the paper.

富营养化湖泊叶绿素a时空变化特征及其影响因素分析

基于内蒙古乌梁素湖区20个监测点5、7、9、11月的监测数据,分析水体中叶绿素a浓度时空变化情况。同时,分析水体中总氮、总磷、氨氮、硝酸盐氮、COD、p H、总有机碳与叶绿素a的相关性。结果显示,叶绿素a浓度呈现由西北向东南逐渐减少的趋势,而浓度峰值出现在7月下旬,低值出现在11月下旬。相关因素与叶绿素a的相关性呈复杂性,线性拟合结果显示,与COD没有明显相关性;与总有机碳呈弱负相关性,与p H呈负相关性;而与总磷、总氮、氨氮、硝酸盐氮呈正相关性。期望该研究为干旱区湖泊水体富营养化控制和水资源管理提供科学依据。     

The emperor's new clothes — Reflections on strategic environmental assessment (SEA) practice in South Africa

This paper presents the results of research which evaluated the performance of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) practice in South Africa in order to develop understanding of how SEA functions within a developing country with a voluntary SEA system. The research applied a combination of methods in a mixed research strategy, including a macro level survey of the SEA system together with case study reviews exploring micro level application. Three main ‘system features’ emerged, namely expansion of voluntary practice, diversity in practice and general ineffectiveness. The results also highlight a number of ‘application features’ such as a lack of focus due to an inability to deal with the concepts of ‘sustainability’ and ‘significance’, as well as poor understanding and integration with decision-making processes. Moreover, it emerged that none of the case studies seem to have conducted an ‘assessment’ per se, but rather provided a framework for strategic decision-making. The paper puts forward a number of interrelated explanations for these system and application features. In a parallel to the fable of the ‘emperor's new clothes’, SEA in South Africa appears to be regarded as the answer to all environmental problems, whilst being ineffective in practice.     

Spatial variability of soil <Superscript>137</Superscript>Cs in the South Caspian region

In a comprehensive program of environmental radioactivity survey in South Caspian region,¹³⁷Cs inventories in soil has been measured at more than 50 sites in the Iranian northern province of Guilan. This has been the first wide-range survey of soil radionuclide inventories in the narrow band sensitive ecosystem of south Caspian shore. Radioactivity measurements were carried out using HPGe gamma-spectrometry system. The activity concentration of ¹³⁷Cs in surface soil exhibits a mean value of 17.6 ± 9.4 Bq kg⁻¹, with a range of 2.3–41.7 Bq kg⁻¹. In many sites, split-level sampling method has been applied down to a depth of 20 cm. There were found generally two profiles. Most profiles exhibit a negative exponential distribution, while others revealed a clear subsurface peak in 5–10-cm layer. Cesium deposition in the study area has been estimated to be in the range of 0.38–2.9 kBq m⁻² with a mean value of 1.7 kBq m⁻². Distribution patterns of ¹³⁷Cs concentration levels and deposition values have been estimated using Kriging interpolation method. Observed hotspots in deposition pattern coincide with areas of higher precipitation.     

Application Of Artificial Neural Network Models To Analyse The Relationships Between Gammarus pulex L. (Crustacea, Amphipoda) And River Characteristics

This study aimed at analysing the relationship between river characteristics and abundance of Gammarus pulex. To this end, four methods which can identify the relative contribution and/or the contribution profile of the input variables in neural networks describing the habitat preferences of this species were compared: (i) the ‘PaD‘ (‘Partial Derivatives‘) method consists of a calculation of the partial derivatives of the output in relation to the input variables; (ii) the ‘Weights‘method is a computation using the connection weights of the backpropagation Artificial Neural Networks; (iii) the ‘Perturb‘method analyses the effect of a perturbation of the input variables on the output variable; (iv) the ‘Profile‘ method is a successive variation of one input variable while the others are kept constant at a fixed set of values. The dataset consisted of 179 samples, collected over a three-year period in the Zwalm river basin in Flanders, Belgium. Twenty-four environmental variables as well as the log-transformed abundance of Gammarus pulex were used in this study. The different contribution methods gave similar results concerning the order of importance of the input variables. Moreover, the stability of the methods was confirmed by gradually removing variables. Only in a limited number of cases a shift in the relative importance of the remaining input variables could be observed. Nevertheless, differences in sensitivity and stability of the methods were detected, probably as a result of the different calculation procedures. In this respect, the ‘PaD‘method made a more severe discrimination between minor and major contributing environmental variables in comparison to the ‘Weights‘, ‘Profile‘ and ‘Perturb‘ methods. From an ecological point of view, the input variables ‘Ammonium‘ and to a smaller extent ‘COD‘, were selected by these methods as dominant river characteristics for the prediction of the abundance of Gammarus pulex in this study area.     

Interpretation of roadside PM10 monitoring data from Sunderland,United Kingdom

Roadside PM₁₀ has been monitored by Partisol® at three sitesin Sunderland between August 1997 and February 1998. The sites chosen were an inner city kerbside site; a roadside site adjacentto a dual carriageway on the outskirts of Sunderland with an openaspect; and a rural site.The results indicate that there is a seasonal variation in the relationship between the sites in terms of monitored PM₁₀.In the winter there is a poor correlation between the sites whereas in the summer significant correlations are obtained. Of the sites monitored PM₁₀ is consistently highest at the inner city roadside site. During the summer, exceedances of theU.K. 50 g m^-3 standard (DETR, 2000) are associated with conditions suitable for the build-up of photochemical pollutionhowever during the winter period exceedances are recorded duringa variety of weather conditions.At the dual carriageway site PM_2.5 has also been recorded and contributions to measured PM₁₀ are 77% in summer and68% in winter. The results illustrate a number of inconsistencies between this study utilising the Partisol® andothers reporting results where PM₁₀ has been monitored by TEOM®.     

Diurnal variations in bacterial and viral production in Cochin estuary, India

Microbes play a central role in the decomposition and remineralization of organic matter and recycling of nutrients in aquatic environments. In this study, we examined the influence of physical, chemical, and biological parameters on the rate of bacterial production (BP) and viral production (VP) with respect to primary production over a diurnal period in Cochin estuary. Time series measurements were made every 2 h for 12 h (6 a.m.–6 p.m.) during periods of low and high salinities. The light intensity as photosynthetically active radiation, temperature, salinity, nutrients like NO₃–N, SiO₄–Si, and PO₄–P, and chlorophyll a (Chl a) were measured along with BP, VP, and net primary production (NPP). NPP showed a strong positive correlation with light and Chl a (r ²?=?0.56 and 0.47, respectively), while VP showed a strong positive correlation with light, salinity, and Chl a (r ²?=?0.37, 0.58, and 0.37, respectively) and a negative correlation with BP (r ²?=??0.39) at P?≤?0.05. We observed a diurnal pattern in BP but did not have any significant correlation with light. Similar diurnal pattern was seen in VP, the peak of which was in succession with BP, suggesting that virus-mediated lysis plays an important role in loss processes of bacteria in Cochin estuary. The results of our study highlight the light-dependent and physicochemical-dependent diurnal variation in virioplankton production in a tropical estuarine ecosystem.     

Precision,accuracy, and application of diver-towed underwater GPS receivers

Diver-towed global positioning systems (GPS) handhelds have been used for a few years in underwater monitoring studies. We modeled the accuracy of this method using the software KABKURR originally developed by the University of Rostock for fishing and marine engineering. Additionally, three field experiments were conducted to estimate the precision of the method and apply it in the field: (1) an experiment of underwater transects from 5 to 35 m in the Southern Chile fjord region, (2) a transect from 5 to 30 m under extreme climatic conditions in the Antarctic, and (3) an underwater tracking experiment at Lake Ranco, Southern Chile. The coiled cable length in relation to water depth is the main error source besides the signal quality of the GPS under calm weather conditions. The forces used in the model resulted in a displacement of 2.3 m in a depth of 5 m, 3.2 m at a 10-m depth, 4.6 m in a 20-m depth, 5.5 m at a 30-m depth, and 6.8 m in a 40-m depth, when only an additional 0.5 m cable extension was used compared to the water depth. The GPS buoy requires good buoyancy in order to keep its position at the water surface when the diver is trying to minimize any additional cable extension error. The diver has to apply a tensile force for shortening the cable length at the lower cable end. Repeated diving along transect lines from 5 to 35 m resulted only in small deviations independent of water depth indicating the precision of the method for monitoring studies. Routing of given reference points with a Garmin 76CSx handheld placed in an underwater housing resulted in mean deviances less than 6 m at a water depth of 10 m. Thus, we can confirm that diver-towed GPS handhelds give promising results when used for underwater research in shallow water and open a wide field of applicability, but no submeter accuracy is possible due to the different error sources.     

Establishing minimum water level for Plastiras reservoir (Greece) combining water quality modelling with landscape aesthetics

A water quality model (MERES) is applied in the multi-purpose reservoir of Plastiras in Greece. The model was calibrated with limited field data using the standard trial and error procedure; next, it was applied for four scenarios of reservoir operation, which correspond to four values of minimum water levels (MWL). Model results were combined with landscape aesthetics to establish a “safe” MWL in the reservoir. MWL was proposed to be +784 m, a value that ensures a very good water quality by retaining the reservoir in the status of “a little beyond oligotrophic” and a very good quality of landscape with an acceptable area of dead zones; it also ensures an annual release of 127.5 hm³ of water within a reliability level of 90%. This quantity can be considered as acceptable from the water supply point of view.     

An Oligopoly Game of CDR Strategy Deployment in a Steady-State Net-Zero Emission Climate Regime

In this paper, we propose a simple oligopoly game model to represent the interactions between coalitions of countries in deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies in a steady-state net-zero emission climate regime that could take place by the end of the twenty-first century. The emission quotas and CDR activities obtained in the solution of this steady-state model could then be used as a target for end-of-period conditions in a dynamic integrated assessment analysis studying the transition to 2100. More precisely, we analyze a steady-state situation where m coalitions exist and behave as m players in a game of supplying emission rights on an international emission trading system. The quotas supplied by a coalition must correspond to the amount of CO₂ captured through CDR activities in the corresponding world region. We use an extension of the computable general equilibrium model GEMINI-E3 to calibrate the payoff functions and compute an equilibrium solution in the noncooperative game.

     

Assessment of environmental radioactivity for Batman, Turkey

The province of Batman, located in southern Anatolia, has a population of approximately 500,000. To our knowledge, there exists no information regarding the environmental radioactivity in this province. Therefore, gamma activity measurements in soil, building materials and water samples and an indoor radon survey have been carried out in the Batman province. The mean activity concentrations of the natural radionuclides (²²⁶Ra, ²³²Th and ⁴⁰K) and a fission product (¹³⁷Cs) were 35 ± 8, 25 ± 10, 274 ± 167 and 12 ± 7 Bq kg^???1, respectively, in the soil samples. The concentrations of ²²⁶Ra, ²³²Th and ⁴⁰K in the selected building materials ranged from 18 to 48 Bq kg^???1, 8 to 49 Bq kg^???1 and 68 to 477 Bq kg^???1, respectively. All the calculated radium equivalent (Ra_eq) activity values of the building material samples are lower than the limit of 370 Bq kg^???1, equivalent to a γ-dose of 1.5 mSv year^???1. The activity concentrations of ²²⁶Ra, ²³²Th and ⁴⁰K in tap waters collected from the study area were determined with mean specific activity concentrations of 42 ± 15, 35 ± 9 and 524 ± 190 mBq L^???1, respectively. Indoor radon measurements were made at 95 dwellings in Batman using a CR-39 detector. The radon concentration levels were found to vary from 23 to 145 Bq m^???3. The arithmetic mean of the measured radon concentration levels was found to be 84 Bq m^???3 with a standard deviation value of 23 Bq m^???3. The measurement results obtained in this study did not significantly differ from those taken in other parts of the country. The data generated in this study can be used to determine whether the Batman province is in a normal or high background radiation area and provides a valuable database for future estimations of the impact of radioactive pollution.     

Sampling of Sparse Species with Probability Proportional to Prediction

In this article, a 3P sampling (Probability Proportional to Prediction) approach is presented for surveying sparse species connected to certain types of substrates. The method uses the surveyors judgement of the probability of finding the species on a substrate as the base for selection of substrates for species inventories. The method is presented together with estimators, variances and variance estimators. The method is first presented for sampling based on all substrates in a study area and then as a subsampling technique in a two-stage design in which plots or strips are selected in a first stage. The presented approach was evaluated as a subsampling technique in a strip survey of calicioid lichen species associated with coarse broadleaf trees. In comparison with a simple random subsampling without replacement, 3P subsampling was in one study area found to be an improvement with 30–55% in terms of standard errors. The improvement was more modest in the other study area, only between 10–16%. The strip survey with 3P subsampling was more cost-efficient than a strip survey without subsampling except in one case. Based on the results in the test, 3P sampling seems to have a potential for sampling sparse species.     

Finding threatened forest areas in the central volcanic mountain range conservation area in Costa Rica

The degree at which tropical forests are exposed to human pressure is spatially dependent. Population density, proximity to roads, terrain slope, logging activities and land distribution projects are well known factors inducing deforestation and forest degradation in Latin America. Using expert knowledge to weight these threat factors and a Geographical Information System for spatial modeling, a multi-criteria analysis procedure is presented, that allows stratifying a study region in categories of deforestation threat. The procedure was implemented in the Central Volcanic Mountain Range Conservation Area (CVMRCA) in Costa Rica with the purpose of finding areas with a combination of physical and socioeconomic characteristics that is particularly predisposing to a high probability of deforestation. To validate the map, the CVMRCA was stratified in categories of deforestation risk, and the result was superposed to historical deforestation data of the period 1986–1996. The good correlation between risk category and historical deforestation (r = 0.91, p < 0.001) indicates that the map can be used as a decision support tool for defining priority areas for conservation action.     

Origination and assessment of metal pollution in Qarechay River bed sediments

In the present investigation, bulk and chemical partitioning of elements (Cu, Mn, Ni, Zn, Fe, Ca) together with organic matter as a loss in ignition in the Qarechay River bed sediments have been studied. The concentration of metals in Qarechay River bed sediments is governed by the geological units of the study area. The study of anthropogenic portion shows that a small proportion of elemental concentration belongs to this phase. However, Mn has a large portion of anthropogenic sources (43 %). Also, Mn has a share of 13.6 % in sulfide fractions. This result indicates that Mn is a highly mobile element and can easily enter the water column. The presence of Mn in sulfide fraction might be indicative of initial stages of conversion of oxidation state into reduction in Qarechay River. Share of metals in anthropogenic portion is in the following order: Mn (43 %)?>?Cu (19 %)?>?Zn (10 %)?>?Ni (3 %)?>?Fe (0 %). Organic metallic bonds are not significantly present in the study area. Geochemical index (I _geo), pollution index (I _poll), enrichment factor (EF), and pollution load index (PLI) values are indicative of a clean environment throughout the river course. These values are in well agreement with results of chemical partitioning data. Eventually, based on the results of chemical partitioning, regional standard of elements for Qarechay River bed sediments has been established.     

Inorganic nitrogen transformations in the treatment of landfill leachate with a high ammonium load: A case study

The inorganic nitrogen transformations occurring at a municipal waste leachate treatment facility were investigated. The treatment facility consisted of a collection well and an artificial wetland between two aeration ponds. The first aeration pond showed a decrease in ammonium (from 3480 (± 120) to 630(± 90) mg ⋅ L⁻¹), a reduction in inorganic nitrogen load (3480 to 1680 mg N ⋅ L⁻¹), and an accumulation of nitrite (< 1.3 mg-N ⋅ L⁻¹ in the collection well, to 1030 mg-N ⋅ L⁻¹). Incomplete ammonium oxidation was presumably the result of the low concentration of carbonate alkalinity (∼2 mg ⋅ L⁻¹), which may cause a limitation in the ammonium oxidation rate of nitrifiers. Low carbonate alkalinity levels may have been the result of stripping of CO₂ from the first aeration pond at the high aeration rates and low pH. Various chemodenitrification mechanisms are discussed as the reason for the reduction in the inorganic nitrogen load, including; the reduction of nitrite by iron (II) (producing various forms of gaseous nitrogen); and reactions involving nitrous acid. It is suggested that the accumulation of nitrite may be the result of inhibition of nitrite oxidizers by nitrous acid and low temperatures. Relative to the first aeration pond, the speciation and concentration of inorganic nitrogen was stable in the wetlands and 2nd aeration pond. The limited denitrification in the wetlands most probably occurred due to low concentrations of organic carbon, and short retention times.     

Quantitative detection of nitrate in water and wastewater by surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy

The presence of inorganic nitrogen species in water can be unsuitable for drinking and detrimental to the environment. In this study, a surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) method coupled with a commercially available gold nanosubstrate (a gold-coated silicon material) was evaluated for the detection of nitrate and nitrite in water and wastewater. Applications of SERS coupled with gold nanosubstrates resulted in an enhancement of Raman signals by a factor of ～10⁴ compared to that from Raman spectroscopy. The new method was able to detect nitrate with linear ranges of 1–10,000 mg NO₃ ^?/L (R ²?=?0.978) and 1–100 mg NO₃ ^?/L (R ²?=?0.919) for water and wastewater samples, respectively. Among the common anions, phosphate appeared to be the major interfering anion affecting nitrate measurement. Nevertheless, the percentage error of nitrate measurement in wastewater by the proposed SERS method was comparable to that by ion chromatography. The nitrate detection limits in water and wastewater samples were about 0.5 mg/L. The SERS method could simultaneously detect sulfate, which may serve as a reference standard in water. These results suggested that the SERS coupled with nanosubstrates is a promising method to determine nitrate concentrations in water and wastewater.     

Determination of hydrazine hydrate based on electrochemiluminescence of Ru(bpy) 3 2+

Considering of the basic properties and also the two nitrogen atoms in the structure, hydrazine hydrate was employed to be an amine additive candidate, to build a Ru(bpy) ₃ ²⁺ /hydrazine electrochemiluminescence (ECL) system, and ECL of Ru(bpy) ₃ ²⁺ has been employed for the determination of hydrazine hydrate in the paper. The result demonstrated that the logarithmic ECL increasing (ΔECL?=?ECL_{after addition of hydrazine}???ECL_{before addition of hydrazine}) versus the logarithmic concentration of hydrazine hydrate is linear over a concentration range of 1.0?×?10^?9 to 1.0?×?10^?5?mol/L, on both glassy carbon and Pt electrodes in a pH 9 phosphate buffer. The hydrazine hydrate detection limit was down to 1.0?×?10^?9?mol/L, comparatively lower than other detection methods. To check its applicability, the proposed method was applied to the determination of hydrazine hydrate added into a tap water sample with good reproducibility and stability. All these provide a possibility to develop a novel ECL detection method for hydrazine in water.     

Optical Resilience of the Paraíba do Sul River (Brazil) during a Toxic Spill of a Wood-Pulping Factory: The Cataguazes Accident

This study investigates the inherent optical properties (IOP) of a Brazilian river during a non-natural, anthropogenically mediated, toxic spill of a wood-pulping factory (the ‘Cataguazes accident’). The results indicated an outstanding transformation in the river water chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) pools. For instance, increases in CDOM absorption coefficients, a _CDOM (λ), which were averaged at specific spectral intervals, , ranged from 58-fold at the UV-B and UV-A ranges to 95-fold at the PAR range. As a result, the water color expressed as CDOM absorption at 440 nm, a _CDOM (440), varied from 4.16 to 365.03 m^-1. For S-coefficient, the variations ranged from ∼1.1 to 5.6-fold, respectively, at the 300–650 nm and UV-B range. The variability of S as a proxy of dissolved chromophores was thus clearly influenced by the spectral range used. Optical proportions were also investigated through the use of and S ratios at the UV-B, UV-A, and PAR ranges and, in the case of , also at the NIR range. This approach also showed clear variations between the water samples, likely reflecting changes in the composition of optically active substances in the river system. As a whole, the findings obtained here indicated that both the quantity and quality of the chromophoric material dissolved in the river water were greatly altered by the toxic spill. The changes in the optical properties of the river water, although extreme and likely with no parallel in the literature, were quite rapid as indicated by the optical resilience of the system. Overall, this study indicates that IOP might be thought, and possibly used, as a metric tool for monitoring the state of waters and aquatic ecosystems.     

Ozone effects on three Sambucus species

The onset and development of symptoms of three Sambucus species, S. ebulus, S. nigra and S. racemosa were studied in 2002 under three different experimental conditions, in charcoal filtered air (CF), and in two ozone enriched treatment: non filtered air plus 40 ppb ozone (NF+), and non filtered air plus 70 ppb ozone (NF++). The herb S. ebulus was more sensitive than the shrubs S. racemosa and S. nigra. Some plants of the three species showed visible injury below the AOT40 threshold of 10,000 ppb·h, established for protection of vegetation. Ozone produced a decrease in chlorophyll content in S. ebulus, and impaired both stomatal conductance and net photosynthesis in S. ebulus and S. nigra. A complementary study in 2004 with S. ebulus, confirmed a decrease in chlorophyll content after fumigation, associated to a decrease in N content of the leaves. Since S. ebulus is a widespread species in Europe and it is very sensitive to ozone, it could be a very appropriate plant for the biomonitoring studies across large areas in this continent.     

Chemical water quality gradients in the Mongolian sub-catchments of the Selenga River basin

Even though the Selenga is the main tributary to Lake Baikal in Russia, the largest part of the Selenga River basin is located in Mongolia. It covers a region that is highly diverse, ranging from almost virgin mountain zones to densely urbanized areas and mining zones. These contrasts have a strong impact on rivers and their ecosystems. Based on two sampling campaigns (summer 2014, spring 2015), we investigated the longitudinal water quality pattern along the Selenga and its tributaries in Mongolia. While headwater regions typically had a very good water quality status, wastewater from urban areas and impacts from mining were found to be main pollution sources in the tributaries. The highest nutrient concentrations in the catchment were found in Tuul River, and severely elevated concentrations of trace elements (As, Cd, Cu, Cr, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn), nutrients (NH₄ ⁺, NO₂ ^?, NO₃ ^?, PO₄ ^3?), and selected major ions (SO₄ ^2?) were found in main tributaries of Selenga River. Moreover, trace element concentrations during spring 2015 (a time when many mines had not yet started operation) were markedly lower than in summer 2014, indicating that the additional metal loads measured in summer 2014 were related to mining activities. Nevertheless, all taken water samples in 2014 and 2015 from the main channel of the Mongolian Selenga River complied with the Mongolian standard (MNS 1998) for the investigated parameters.