The uncertainty of climate sensitivity and its implication for the Paris negotiation

Uncertainty of climate sensitivity is one of the critical issues that may affect climate response strategies. Whereas the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) was specified as 2–4.5 °C with the best estimate of 3 °C in the 4th Assessment Report of IPCC, it was revised to 1.5–4.5 °C in the 5th Assessment Report. The authors examined the impact of a difference in ECS assuming a best estimate of 2.5 °C, instead of 3 °C. The current pledges of several countries including the U.S., EU and China on emission reductions beyond 2020 are not on track for the 2 °C target with an ECS of 3 °C but are compatible with the target with an ECS of 2.5 °C. It is critically important for policymakers in Paris to know that they are in a position to make decisions under large uncertainty of ECS.     

Effects of injection timing,injector opening pressure and nozzle geometry on the performance of cottonseed oil methyl ester-fuelled diesel engine

Increasing petroleum prices, increasing threat to the environment from exhaust emissions and global warming have generated intense international interest in developing renewable and alternative non-petroleum fuels for engines. Evolving technology and a recurring energy crisis necessitates a continuous investigation into the search for sustainable and clean-burning renewable fuels. In this paper, cottonseed oil methyl ester (COME) was used in a four-stroke, single-cylinder variable compression ratio diesel engine. Tests were carried out to study the effects of fuel injection timing, fuel injector opening pressure (IOP) and injector nozzle geometry on the performance and combustion of COME biodiesel fuel used in a compression ignition engine with a single fuel mode. Fuel injection timing varied from 19° to 27° before top dead centre (bTDC) in incremental steps of 4° bTDC; fuel IOP varied from 210 to 240 bar in incremental steps of 10 bar. Fuel nozzle injectors with three, four and five holes, each of 0.3 mm size, were selected for the study. The results suggested that with retarded injection timing of 19° bTDC, increased IOP of 230 bar and a four-hole nozzle injector of 0.3 mm size resulted in overall better engine performance with an increased brake thermal efficiency and reduced HC, CO and smoke emission levels.     

Contrasting impacts of climate change across seasons: effects on flatfish cohorts

The Senegal sole, Solea senegalensis, is a species of flatfish that has several distinct cohorts of 0-group juveniles which use estuarine nurseries in summer and winter. The early cohort is more abundant and grows faster than the late cohort that stays in the nurseries during winter; however, climate warming may have an impact on the dynamics of this species’ juveniles. This study aimed to compare mortality, metabolic response and growth of S. senegalensis juveniles at different temperatures, reflecting present-day temperature (winter—12 °C; summer—24 °C) and future temperature (plus 3 °C) conditions, in estuarine nurseries in the southern European population. Mortality was low at 12 °C, being only 10 %, increasing to 30 % at 15 °C, 40 % at 24 °C and at 27 °C it hit 70 %. Metabolic rate increased steadily with increasing temperatures, yet it increased steeply from 24 to 27 °C. Thermal sensitivity was high for the temperature interval between 24 and 27 °C. Growth was very slow at 12 °C, at a rate of 0.03 mm day^?1, increasing to 0.22 mm day^?1 at 15 °C, and to 0.60 mm day^?1, at 24 °C. However, at 27 °C growth rapidly declined to 0.12 mm day^?1. Warming will be beneficial for the late cohort, resulting in a major increase in growth. However, the early cohort will not benefit from warming, due to high mortality and arrested growth, which clearly indicates that this species is under severe thermal stress at 27 °C. Thus, here we show, for the first time, that climate change may induce contrasting seasonal impacts on fish bio-ecology and physiology, namely in species with several cohorts over the course of the year. Phenotypic and/or genotypic plasticity may limit the impacts of climate change.     

GIS技术在三峡库区滑坡灾害研究中的应用

对三峡库区选定的研究区域,建立地质、地形等滑坡因子空间数据库和滑坡空间分布数据库（比例尺均为1：10 000）,利用GIS技术对滑坡和各影响因子相关性进行了统计分析。计算得出滑坡发生的主要影响因子类属：Q\-4、J\-1x, J\-1z、S岩性岩组;90 m以下、90~135 m和135~175 m三个高程带;15~20m局部高差;10°~15°、15°~20°和20°~25°坡度;北向、南向和西北向方向和 1～1曲率范围。研究的结果是进行滑坡易发性评价的基础,可以帮助指导库区滑坡灾害管理、土地利用等。     

The impact of summer temperatures and heatwaves on mortality and morbidity in Perth,Australia 1994–2008

Climate change projections have drawn attention to the risks of extreme heat and the importance of public health interventions to minimise the impact. The city of Perth, Western Australia, frequently experiences hot summer conditions, with recent summers showing above average temperatures. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures, mortality, emergency department (ED) presentations and hospital admissions data were acquired for Perth for the period 1994 to 2008. Using an observed/expected analysis, the temperature thresholds for mortality were estimated at 34–36 °C (maximum) and 20 °C (minimum). Generalised estimating equations (GEEs) were used to estimate the percentage increase in mortality and morbidity outcomes with a 10 °C increment in temperature, with adjustment for air pollutants. Effect estimates are reported as incidence rate ratios (IRRs). The health impact of heatwave days (three or more days of ≥ 35 °C) was also investigated. A 9.8% increase in daily mortality (IRR 1.098; 95%CI: 1.007–1.196) was associated with a 10 °C increase in maximum temperature above threshold. Total ED presentations increased by 4.4% (IRR 1.044; 95%CI: 1.033–1.054) and renal-related ED presentations by 10.2% (IRR 1.102; 95%CI: 1.071–1.135) per 10 °C increase in maximum temperature. Heatwave days were associated with increases in daily mortality and ED presentations, while total hospital admissions were decreased on heatwave days. Public health interventions will be increasingly important to minimise the adverse health impacts of hot weather in Perth, particularly if the recent trend of rising average temperatures and more hot days continues as projected.     

Effect of injection timing,injector opening pressure and nozzle geometry on the performance of a compression ignition engine operated on non-edible oil methyl esters from different sources

Increasing cost of fossil fuels, environmental threats from exhaust emissions and their depleting nature have generated intense international interest in developing renewable and alternative fuels for internal combustion engines. This study investigates the suitability of different non-edible-derived biodiesels such as cottonseed oil methyl ester (COME), honne oil methyl ester (HnOME) and honge oil methyl ester (HOME) to four-stroke, single-cylinder compression ignition (CI) engine. Engine tests were conducted to study the effect of fuel injection timing (IT), fuel injector opening pressure (IOP) and injector nozzle geometry on the performance, combustion and emission characteristics of COME, HnOME and HOME in the modified CI engine. IT was varied from 19° to 27° before top dead centre (bTDC) in steps of 4° bTDC; IOP was varied from 205 to 240 bar in steps of 10 bar. Nozzle injectors of three to five holes, each of 0.3 mm size, were selected for the study. It was concluded that a retarded IT of 19° bTDC increased IOP of 230 bar, and four-hole nozzle injector of 0.3 mm size resulted in overall better engine performance with increased brake thermal efficiency and reduced hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide smoke emissions for the fuels tested.     

Human well-being, the global emissions debt, and climate change commitment

Energy consumption is fundamentally necessary for human well-being. However, although increasing energy consumption provides substantial improvements in well-being for low and intermediate levels of development, incremental increases in consumption fail to provide improvements for “super-developed” countries that exhibit the highest levels of development and energy consumption. The aim of this note is, therefore, to quantitatively explore the global emissions debt and climate change commitment associated with the gap in energy consumption between the energy-saturated super-developed countries and the rest of the world. Adopting Kates’ identity, I calculate that elevating the current populations in the non-super-developed countries to the energy and carbon intensities of the United States is akin to adding the fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions of more than 15 United States to the global annual total, implying cumulative emissions of almost 4000 GT CO₂ from 2010 through 2050. The inevitability of continued emissions beyond 2050 suggests that the transition of non-super-developed countries to a US-like profile between now and 2050 could, by itself, plausibly result in global warming of 3.2 °C above the late-twentieth century baseline, including an extremely high likelihood that global warming would exceed 1.2 °C. Global warming of this magnitude is likely to cause regional climate change that falls well outside of the baseline variations to which much of the world is presently accustomed, meaning that a US-like energy-development pathway carries substantial climate change commitment for both non-super-developed and super-developed countries, independent of future emissions from the super-developed world. However, the assumption that all countries converge on the minimum energy intensity of the super-developed world and a carbon-free energy system between now and 2050 implies cumulative CO₂ emissions of less than 1000 GT CO₂ between 2010 and 2050, along with a less than 40 % probability of exceeding 1.2 °C of additional global warming. It is, therefore, possible that intensive efforts to develop and deploy global-scale capacity for low-carbon energy consumption could simultaneously ensure human well-being and substantially limit the associated climate change commitment.     

Dependence of demographic parameters and results of competition on temperature in cladocerans

Laboratory experiments and computer simulations have been performed to study the influence of increased temperatures on the structure of cladoceran communities. Analysis of changes in the rate of population growth and demographic parameters has shown that smaller cladoceran species are less sensitive to decreased concentrations of food at any of the test temperatures (18, 21, and 27°C). An increase in temperature from 18°C to 27°C has been shown to facilitate the establishment of acute competition conditions. At 18°C, periods of food deficiency are shorter, and competition is therefore less manifested than at 27°C. According to the results of computer simulations, alleviation of competition in waters with “low” temperatures results from reduction of the periods of food deficiency because of prolonged juvenile development.     

Effect of temperature on blood parameters of the salamander <Emphasis Type="Italic">Batrachupems tibetanus</Emphasis> (Schmidt, 1925) (Amphibia: Hynobiidae)

To better understand how Batrachupems tibetanus responds to different temperature regimes in the blood parameters and to estimate the change in plasma cortisol level in this species exposed to different temperatures, the animals were stochastically divided into three groups and exposed respectively to 4.6°C, 14.6°C and 19.6°C for 12 days. The concentrations of glucose, total protein, albumin, triacylglycerol, Ca²⁺, K⁺, Na⁺, Cl⁻, and plasma cortisol level were measured respectively. There was no significant difference between the plasma cortisol level of the control group and the experiment groups. Glucose level at 4.6°C and 19.6°C was significantly lower than glucose level at 14.6°C. The plasma triacylglycerol level was significantly influenced by acclimation temperature. The concentration of total protein, albumin, globulin and the ratio between albumin and globulin were not significantly influenced by temperature when compared with control group. There was no significant change in concentration of Ca²⁺ at different temperatures. The concentration of K⁺ was significantly influenced by temperature. Plasma K⁺ level significantly increased at 19.6°C. The plasma Na⁺ level and Cl⁻ were significantly influenced by temperature. Na⁺: Cl⁻ ratio was significantly influenced by temperature. Therefore, glucose, triacylglycerol, Na⁺ and Cl⁻ levels could be considered as indicators of thermal stress in B. tibetanus; plasma cortisol, albumin, globulin levels, and albumin/globulin ratio are not influenced by temperature.     

Larch forests of Middle Siberia: long-term trends in fire return intervals

Fire history within the northern larch forests of Central Siberia was studied (65 + °N). Fires within this area are predominantly caused by lightning strikes rather than human activity. Mean fire return intervals (FRIs) were found to be 112 ± 49 years (based on firescars) and 106 ± 36 years (based on firescars and tree natality dates). FRIs were increased with latitude increase and observed to be about 80 years at 64°N, about 200 years near the Arctic Circle and about 300 years nearby the northern range limit of larch stands (~71° + N). Northward FRIs increase correlated with incoming solar radiation (r = ?0.95). Post-Little Ice Age (LIA) warming (after 1850) caused approximately a doubling of fire events (in comparison with a similar period during LIA). The data obtained support a hypothesis of climate-induced fire frequency increase.     

Performance analysis of solar water heating system in Centre for DNA Fingerprinting and Diagnostics (CDFD), Southern region of India

In the present study, a natural circulation thermosyphon flat plate solar water heater has been tested at the CDFD, Hyderabad (17.37°N, 78.43°E) Andhra Pradesh, India. Experimental data were noted on a sunny day. Dynamic response of the system to variations in solar insulation was studied and analyzed. T _inlet °C and T _outlet °C temperatures were recorded. The performance of the system can be improved by using aluminum tape inserts into the collector fins. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the performance of flat plate collector with and without inserts (aluminum strip of 1 mm thick, 3 mm width and 203 mm length). It is expected that with the same collector with the same flow rate, higher efficiency can be obtained by inserting the tapes inside the collector copper fins (9 mm). Thus, the cost of the system can be further bringing down by enhancing the collector efficiency.     

Ambient aerosol sampling: Problems,goals and wind tunnel test results of hi-volume samplers

The area of ambient air sampling and its inherent problems and current goals are discussed in general. In particular, recently completed tests of the collection effectiveness of the Rocky Flats Hi-Volume Sampler are compared to previously completed tests of the Standard EPA Hi-Volume Sampler for a variety of field realistic conditions. Collection effectiveness is defined as the ratio of the aerosol collected on the collection substrates of the sampler to that collected by an isokinetic sampling system.The collection effectiveness of the Standard EPA Hi-Volume Sampler was determined as a function of particle size (5–50 μm) and sampler orientation (0° and 45°) at a base condition wind speed of 4.6 m/s and 8% relative turbulence intensity. The results indicated a strong effect of orientation on collection effectiveness at a sampling rate of 1416 l/min. Wind speed over the range of 1.5–4.6 m/s does not greatly influence the collection effectiveness of 15 μm particles. Free stream turbulence levels of 1 and 8% relative intensity has no effect upon collection characteristics.The collection effectiveness of the Rocky Flats Hi-Volume Sampler was determined as a function of particle size (1–34 μm), wind speed (1.52–12.19 m/s) and sampler orientation to the mean flow (0°, 45°, 180°). The results show the sampler, with an inlet flow rate of 880 l/min, has an inlet effectiveness that was a slight function of orientation angle for particles 1–10 μm with a larger effect seen for 20–34 μm; a strong effect of velocity was seen up to 5 m/s where a further increase showed only a slight decrease in effectiveness.The Microsorban-98 filter that is presently used in the Rocky Flats Sampler was tested for efficiency over the size range of particles from 0.01–1 μm and with three different face velocities using the sampler flow rates of 600, 800 and 1 000 l/min corresponding to pressure drops of 20–24 in. of water (3.74–4.49 cm HaG). The filter paper, which was of the fiber type, was found to be 99.9% efficient over the range of particle sizes and pressure drops tested.     

Holocene fire history from the Greater Blue Mountains World Heritage Area, New South Wales, Australia: the climate, humans and fire nexus

This study presents a reconstruction of the fire activity of the last ~14,200 cal. years BP (before AD 1950) from Gooches Crater Right, located on the Newnes Plateau, approximately 150 km to the west of Sydney (~33°27′S, 150°16′E) within the Blue Mountains National Park. Charcoal analysis and palynology were undertaken with the aim of untangling any inter-relationship between climate, humans and fire. A chronology of the site was provided by radiocarbon dating. The dominant control on fire in this environment during the Holocene appears to be climate. Periods of climate change, identified in previous studies, are associated with higher levels of fire activity. Fire was less ubiquitous between ~9,000 and 6,000 years BP, a period normally described as having a higher effective moisture in south-eastern Australia. The mid-Holocene fluctuations in charcoal may reflect anthropogenic fire, climate forcing or alternatively human responses to any climate change. Coeval changes in palaeoclimatic sequences elsewhere and palynology at the site support a climatic explanation or that Aboriginal people used fire within a climatic framework.     

The ecological implications of land use change in the Source Regions of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers, China

The alpine ecosystems in permafrost regions are extremely sensitive to climate change. The headwater regions of Yangtze River and Yellow River of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are on the permafrost area. Aerial photos of the Source Regions of the Yangtze and Yellow River taken in 1968 and three phases of TM images acquired from 1986, 2000, and 2008 were used to analyze the spatial alterations of the land cover and corresponding effects on the environment guided by landscape ecology theory. Firstly, land cover types were divided into three classes and 11 subclasses. Analysis results revealed the trends and magnitude of the eco-environmental changes in the regions over the past four decades and showed a continuous degradation of grasslands and the extension of desertification and salinization. Secondly, five landscape pattern indices (i.e., NP, MPS, PR, SHEI, CONTAG) commonly used in landscape ecological studies were calculated, and results showed that this region had become more centralized and diversified. Finally, the factors causing the degradation of alpine grasslands were analyzed. The regional climate exhibited a tendency toward significant warming and desiccation with the air temperature increased by 0.03 °C per year and relative stable precipitation over the last 40 years. And the temperature of permafrost in 0–20 cm soil layer obviously raised by 0.2–0.3 °C in the last 40 years. The combined effects of climate warming and permafrost variation were the major drivers for the changes of landscape in alpine ecosystems.     

Comparison of the energetic performance of a binary cycle and a flash evaporation binary cycle,using low-enthalpy geothermal energy

In this article, the comparison of the energetic performance of a binary cycle and a modified binary cycle with flash evaporation is presented, both using a low-enthalpy geothermal resource. The comparative analysis is based on two main discourses: the first one evaluates a conventional binary cycle (CBC) with isopentane as working fluid in order to validate and compare the generated data with those reported in similar studies; the second one uses the same input parameters for both cycles, obtaining the cases in which the modified binary cycle is the most viable choice to use. In addition to the above, several aspects are considered when selecting the most suitable working fluid, and the use of water as working fluid is introduced. When the temperature of the geothermal resource is below 140 °C, and the ambient temperature is 25 °C, the flash evaporation binary cycle, using water as working fluid, shows an improved performance compared to a CBC, with a theoretical output over 1000 kWe. This may encourage new areas of opportunity for power generation, not only with low- and medium-enthalpy geothermal energy, but also with other renewable energy sources such as solar.     

Changing patterns of the temperature–mortality association by time and location in the US,and implications for climate change

The shape of the non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality varies among cities with different climatic conditions. There has been little examination of how these curves change over space and time. We evaluated the short-term effects of hot and cold temperatures on daily mortality over six 7-year periods in 211 US cities, comprising over 42 million deaths. Cluster analysis was used to group the cities according to similar temperatures and relative humidity. Temperature–mortality functions were calculated using B-splines to model the heat effect (lag 0) and the cold effect on mortality (moving average lags 1–5). The functions were then combined through meta-smoothing and subsequently analyzed by meta-regression. We identified eight clusters. At lag 0, Cluster 5 (West Coast) had a RR of 1.14 (95% CI: 1.11,1.17) for temperatures of 27 °C vs 15.6 °C, and Cluster 6 (Gulf Coast) has a RR of 1.04 (95% CI: 1.03,1.05), suggesting that people are acclimated to their respective climates. Controlling for cluster effect in the multivariate-meta regression we found that across the US, the excess mortality from a 24-h temperature of 27 °C decreased over time from 10.6% to 0.9%. We found that the overall risk due to the heat effect is significantly affected by summer temperature mean and air condition usage, which could be a potential predictor in building climate-change scenarios.     

Climate variability and changes in the major cities of Bangladesh: observations,possible impacts and adaptation

High population density, inadequate infrastructure and low adaptive capacity have made the urban population of Bangladesh highly vulnerable to climate change. Trends in climate and climate-related extreme events in five major cities have been analyzed in this paper to decipher the variability and ongoing changes in urban Bangladesh. An analysis of 55 years (1958–2012) of daily rainfall and temperature data using nonparametric statistical methods shows a significant increase in annual and seasonal mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures in all five cities. A significant increase in climate-related extreme events, such as heavy rainfall events (>20 mm), hot days (>32 °C) and hot nights (>25 °C), is also observed. Climate model results suggest that these trends will continue through the twenty-first century. Vulnerability of urban livelihoods and physical structures to climate change is estimated by considering certainty and timing of impacts. It has been predicted that public health and urban infrastructures, viz. water and power supply, would be the imminent affected sectors in the urban areas of Bangladesh. Adaptation measures that can be adopted to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change are also discussed.     

Assessing the implications of a 1.5 °C temperature limit for the Jamaican agriculture sector

Despite recent calls to limit future increases in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C, little is known about how different climatic thresholds will impact human society. Future warming trends have significant global food security implications, particularly for small island developing states (SIDS) that are recognized as being among the most vulnerable to global climate change. In the case of the Caribbean, any significant change in the region’s climate is likely to have significant adverse effects on the agriculture sector. This paper explores the potential biophysical impacts of a +?1.5 °C warming scenario on several economically important crops grown in the Caribbean island of Jamaica. Also, it explores differences to a >?2.0 °C warming scenario, which is more likely, if the current policy agreements cannot be complied with by the international community. We use the ECOCROP niche model to estimate how predicted changes in future climate could affect the growing conditions of several commonly cultivated crops from both future scenarios. We then discuss some key policy considerations for Jamaica’s agriculture sector, specifically related to the challenges posed to future adaptation pathways amidst growing climate uncertainty and complexity. Our model results show that even an increase less than +?1.5 °C is expected to have an overall negative impact on crop suitability and a general reduction in the range of crops available to Jamaican farmers. This observation is instructive as increases above the +?1.5 °C threshold would likely lead to even more irreversible and potentially catastrophic changes to the sustainability of Jamaica’s agriculture sector. The paper concludes by outlining some key considerations for future action, paying keen attention to the policy relevance of a +?1.5 °C temperature limit. Given little room for optimism with respect to the imminent changes that SIDS will need to confront in the near future, broad-based policy engagement by stakeholders in these geographies is paramount, irrespective of the climate warming scenario.     

嘉陵江流域坡耕地“生态农业旅游”垂直景观模式

从治理水土流失角度出发，提出了坡耕地“生态农业旅游”技术与示范。其垂直生态景观模式按坡度和等高线布置：在坡度大于25°的山坡顶形成水保林木区，坡上15°～25°的陡坡种植桃树，坡中5°～15°的斜坡种植枇杷，坡下小于5°的缓坡地带种植特种水果、瓜类及蔬菜，坡底形成“稻—鱼”和“藕—鱼”特色水域区。道路系统设计为环山而下的水泥主路、观景石板干路、埂边地界小路三级，道路两侧实施还林还草。“农家乐”型旅游接待自然分布在试验区内，同时在坡上建立旅游“一条街”、坡底试验旅游产业化经营。果园内实施多熟作物覆盖、间种套种。垂直生态景观产生了独特而丰富的景观效果，并具有较好的生态功能、经济功能和社会功能。     

Specific features of distribution of resident bat species (chiroptera: Vespertilionidae) in the eastern East European plain and adjacent regions

Some specific features of the distribution of resident Chiroptera (10 forms) in the eastern East European Plain and adjacent areas (44°–65° N, 40°–60° E) are described. It is noted that in different seasons of the year,Myotis dasycneme, M. daubentonii, M. nattereri, M. mystacinus, M. brandtii, Plecotus auritus, Eptesicus nilssoni, andE. serotinus serotinus are found more often in upland areas with karst and other erosional forms of relief, whereasE. serotinus turcomanus andPipistrellus kuhlii display no preference for these types of relief.