河流综合水质评价方法比较研究

为探讨综合水质评价结论的科学合理性,对典型的7种河流综合水质评价方法,包括单因子评价法、污染指数法、模糊评价法、灰色系统评价法、层次分析法、人工神经网络法、水质标识指数法,在归类分析其特性的基础上,针对代表性的评价样本,进行了综合水质评价比较研究。主要结论为：①单因子评价法以最差水质指标所属类别作为综合水质类别,评价结论表现为过保护;②污染指数法能够直观判断综合水质是否达到功能区目标,但是不能判断综合水质类别;③对模糊数学法、灰色系统评价法、层次分析法、BP人工神经网络法和水质标识指数法等5种典型评价方法,当综合水质为Ⅰ~Ⅴ类水情形时,这几种方法评价结论基本一致,证明这5种典型评价方法对Ⅰ~Ⅴ类水的评价结论具有科学合理性;④当综合水质为劣Ⅴ类水时,模糊数学法、灰色系统评价法、层次分析法、BP人工神经网络法的评价结论偏保守,而水质标识指数法解决了劣Ⅴ类水质的连续性描述问题,能够对劣Ⅴ类水进行科学合理评价,并对Ⅰ~Ⅴ类水、劣Ⅴ类水不黑臭、劣Ⅴ类水黑臭进行全面、科学合理的定性与定量评价.     

一种基于代表性样点的钉螺密度抽样调查设计方法

抽样设计是钉螺调查的关键环节，直接影响到统计推断的总体精度。目前湖沼型血吸虫病流行区钉螺调查常用的系统抽样设计方法存在样本量大、代表性不强、抽样效率不高等问题。通过对与钉螺空间分布上具有协同变化的环境因子进行模糊聚类分析，寻找可代表钉螺空间分布的代表性样点，提出一种基于代表性样点的抽样设计方法。将本研究设计的方法应用于鄱阳湖区恒湖农场茶叶港草洲的钉螺抽样设计研究，对采集的代表性样点进行误差分析，并将抽样结果与简单随机抽样和系统抽样方法进行精度比较。结果显示：本研究提出的“基于代表性样点的钉螺抽样设计方法（SORS）”明显优于简单随机抽样和系统抽样，抽样绝对误差分别为：0.440 7、1.551 4、3.565 3，相对误差分别为：1.048 1、3.689 7、8.479 6。本研究表明新方法能够获得比现有血防部门的钉螺调查方法更高的估算精度，可为优化湖沼型血吸虫病流行区钉螺调查方法提供借鉴。 关键词： 模糊聚类；抽样设计；代表性样点；钉螺     

Determination of the specific alpha activity of thick sources with a large area ZnS(Ag) scintillation detector

A method for determining the specific alpha activity of thick sources using a large area ZnS(Ag) scintillation detector is presented. In this method a quadratic relationship between the detector response and window thickness is assumed. This method provides a quick estimation of alpha activity in the sample, so it is an indicative method. The aim of this experimental work is to approve theoretical assumption and to develop a standard routine method for absolute alpha measurements of thick contaminated environmental sources. For this purpose reference material U(3)O(8) and spiked standards of soil were used. Measurements of contaminated soil samples from south Serbia showed the practical application of this method.     

突变级数法在区域生态系统健康评价中的应用

目前在多目标综合评价方面有层次分析、因子分析、模糊评判等诸多方法．但有些方法对权重的确定主观性较大或计算过程过于复杂。介绍了突变理论用于多准则决策问题的基本思想和步骤，该法不需对评价指标赋以权重。它只考虑指标的相对重要性。避免了直接使用难于确定且主观性较大的“权重”概念。因而显得简易。同时．突变级数是一种多维模糊隶属函数。用它来计算通常模糊数学的多目标评价决策问题。就更适宜和更准确。以广东省生态系统健康评价为实例．引用相关文献中的数据构建了适用于突变级数法的层次结构指标体系．运用突变理论中的归一公式。计算了广东省生态系统的健康得分，发现健康排名与实际情况较为符合．证明了该方法的可行性。文章同时使用了加权平均法对指标体系进行计算，通过比较。发现原文献的结果与本文采用的两种方法的评价结果基本一致。尤其是健康程度较好和较坏的区域。实例表明．突变级数法较为简便、快捷和可靠。这为解决区域多目标评价问题提供了一种新的思路。     

不同基流分割方法在香溪河流域的应用对比研究

三峡水库蓄水后,库区水质水量备受关注。基流分割是水文学中的一个重点和难点,其结果对水文分析计算、水资源管理等方面的影响较大。为了找到一种可靠的基流分割方法,以三峡库区香溪河流域兴山水文站2007~2009年流量监测数据为依据,利用滤波平滑最小值法进行基流分割,并与数字滤波法和平滑最小值法分割结果进行对比。结果表明：平滑最小值法、数字滤波法和滤波平滑最小值法年均基流分割系数BFI分别为042、039和036;滤波平滑最小值法处理的结果最为平滑,比较符合实际的物理汇流过程,在起涨阶段能较好的追踪数字滤波法,在衰退阶段又能较好的追踪平滑最小值法,能够更好的表现基流完整变化过程;相比数字滤波法,滤波平滑最小值法只需1次向前的滤波。综合而言,滤波平滑最小值法为这3种方法中最优的基流分割方法     

Specifying information needs: improving the working methodology

Specification of information needs is an important step in the design of monitoring networks. Within the framework of Monitoring Strategy 2000+, a programme of the Dutch Directorate General of Public Works and Water Management (Rijkswaterstaat) which seeks to provide innovation in the monitoring sector, a method has been developed to link water management policy to monitoring through specification of information needs. Over the past 2 years, this method has been applied in several projects within the Rijkswaterstaat organisation. Use of this method has led to improvements in the monitoring practice and was judged very positively by the people involved. Nevertheless, the main obstacle to employing the method was the actual translation of policy matters into information products. A special study is carried out, focusing on this aspect within the method, to provide the participants of a project with a mental framework that enables them to clearly specify their information needs. The major requirements for this mental framework are that all participants have a clear view of the process (system), and that they are able to relate their contribution to this process and to the contributions of others (transparency). The first step of the process is to focus the attention of stakeholders on the information they will actually need for decision-making. The next step is to confront the different expressed opinions through the method of the 'devil's advocate', which implies criticising the results of the first step by finding as many as possible arguments against these opinions. This should force the stakeholders to better specify their arguments. The method, its improvements and the results of one pilot project will be discussed in this paper. Electronic Publication     

集合经验模态分解在长江中下游梅雨变化多尺度分析中的应用

基于长江中下游流域5个梅雨监测站1961~2012年的日数据,利用集合经验模态分解（EEMD）方法,对研究期内梅雨时间序列进行多尺度的分析,探讨其在不同时间尺度上的振荡模态结构特征。结果表明：近50多年来,长江中下游梅雨变化呈现出显著的年际和年代际尺度振荡特征,在年际尺度上表现出准3 a和6 a的周期变化,而在年代际尺度上显示准13 a和24 a的周期变化;各分量方差〖JP2〗贡献率显示,年际振荡在梅雨长期变化中占据主导地位;自1961年以来,EEMD分解的梅雨长期变化趋势表现出先增加后减少的倒“U”型特征,其中1961~1985年呈上升趋势,1985~2012年呈下降趋势,尤其是在2000年之后的下降趋势最为明显。由此可以看出,EEMD能够有效地揭示梅雨长期序列在不同时间尺度上的变化规律,可用于诊断非线性、非平稳性信号变化的复杂性特征     

基于贝叶斯公式的湖泊富营养化随机评价方法及其验证

为了准确评价湖泊所处的营养状态,进而为湖泊富营养化的防治提供科学依据,提出了基于贝叶斯公式的湖泊富营养化随机评价方法。该法通过计算单个水质指标属于某个评价级别的概率,由最大似然分类原则确定单个水质指标的评价级别,并采用加权平均法推求湖泊富营养化多个水质指标的综合评价级别,具有方法简单、计算工作量小的特点。经全国30个湖泊实测水质资料的验证,随机评价方法与模糊评价方法和灰色评价方法相比较,有29个湖泊评价结果的差异小于等于一个级别,其比例为96.6％,说明这三种富营养化评价方法的计算精度相当。根据各项评价指标与叶绿素的相关系数,计算各项水质指标在富营养化评价中所占权重的方法,适用于浮游植物型湖泊,如果采取等权重方法,则适用于任何类型的湖泊。确定湖泊富营养化评价的水质指标个数和种类的选择具有不确定性,确定湖泊富营养化的评价级别和各个级别对应的水质标准浓度也具有不确定性,因此湖泊富营养化的评价方法具有不确定性。应采用多种途径对湖泊富营养化的评价方法进行研究,并取长补短,使评价结果更趋合理。     

层次分析-熵值定权法在城市水环境承载力评价中的应用

从广义水环境承载力定义出发,建立水环境承载力评价指标体系;采用层次分析－熵值定权法和向量模法对武汉市水环境承载力进行评价,该定权方法采用层次分析法确定权重,同时又引入熵值法对权重进行修正,在一定程度上减少了主观影响。该方法使评价指标的赋权达到主观与客观统一,对水环境承载力的量化更加准确与合理。该方法构造简单,便于实现计算机编程,所以应用较为简单、方便。以武汉市为例,综合考虑资源环境以及社会经济发展,建立了一套指标体系,利用向量模法对指标进行量化,结果表明武汉市2006~2010年水环境承载力逐年增大,由0129 3增长到02411,表明近些年武汉市水资源、环境与社会经济的发展协调性较好。从3个准则层中可以看出,资源与环境对武汉市水环境承载力的影响较大;社会子系统承载力评价值逐年上升,且上升趋势较快;随着经济的加速发展,经济子系统承载力评价值呈逐年下降态势     

Prepared for climate change? A method for the ex-ante assessment of formal responsibilities for climate adaptation in specific sectors

Climate change-related risks encompass an intensification of extreme weather events, such as fluvial and pluvial flooding, droughts, storms, and heat stress. A transparent and comprehensive division of responsibilities is a necessary—but not the only—precondition for being prepared for climate change. In this paper, we present, and preliminarily test, a method for the ex-ante assessment of the division of public and private responsibilities for climate adaptation in terms of comprehensiveness, transparency, legitimacy, and effectiveness. This method proofs particularly suited for the assessment of adaptation responsibilities in combination with a sectoral approach. It helps identifying a number of shortcomings in divisions of responsibilities for climate adaptation. We conclude that this method is useful as a diagnostic tool for identifying the expected climate change preparedness level, and recommend to combine this with ex-post analyses of real-life cases of extreme events in order to assess the actual preparedness for climate change. Besides the scientific purpose of providing a generally applicable assessment method, with this method, we also intend to assist policy-makers in developing and implementing adaptation plans at various levels.     

地下水非稳定流问题的有限分析五点格式

针对有限分析法不规则单元适应性差的问题,采用坐标旋转技术,建立了一种求解地下水非稳定流方程的有限分析五点格式,并给出了相应的边界条件。应用所提出的地下水非稳定流方程的有限分析五点格式对地下水的3个典型问题进行了模拟计算,其结果与解析解和前人的计算结果相比较,计算得到的结果与解析解吻合很好,较有限元法、边界元法的精度高,计算过程简单,稳定性好,收敛速度快,能很好地拟合边界和非均质分区界线,确切反映渗流场中不同部位的水头分布,并能较好地适应于复杂的几何区域。计算格式也可以应用到其他非规则区域的计算中。     

长江口北槽航道淤积过程的动态系统数学模拟

采用非传统方法－－现代控制理论中的动态系统辨识理论与时间序列分析相结合的方法对长江口北槽人工航道淤积过程作探讨，建模及预报，从得到的动态数学模型的模拟结果，预防结果看，与实际情况相吻，说明此尝试是成功的。     

一种新的汛期降水集中期划分方法

汛期降水集中期是近期气象学者提出的表征汛期气候的一种新的特征量,它在气候研究中体现了较好的灵活性、客观性,通过对其分析,可为汛期气候的诊断和预测提供依据。但现在普遍使用的降水集中期在计算方法和时间长度上存在缺陷,特别是运用到时间跨度较长时段的气候分析时,特征量表征作用就有所缺失,而且计算方法较为复杂。为更好地使用降水集中期这一特征量,提出了以15天作为时长,用滑动统计来划定汛期降水集中期的新方法,并运用统计方法、天气气候学方法进行了论证,同时在长江下游主雨季降水集中期分析和金华地区汛期分析两个实例中进行了应用检验。结果表明,汛期降水集中期新方法划定的特征量与汛期降水总量存在时间上的相对独立性和总趋势上的显著相关性,且在汛期气候极端灾害事件上有较强的描述能力。因此认为,15天滑动统计新方法划定的汛期降水集中期使用便捷,天气气候意义明确,在实际应用中更为客观有效。     

On Methods for Analyzing Ecotones of Forest Margins

A simple method for the quantitative gradient analysis of a xerotermic forest-margin ecotone is described. In this method, the mean value of the coefficient of similarity between all plots of the transect is used for estimating the rate of changes in species composition. Changes in the phytosociological spectrum are analyzed. The method adequately reflects trends in the displacement of forest species by forest-margin, steppe, and meadow species.     

A new method to account for the depth distribution of 137Cs in soils in the calculation of external radiation dose-rate

This work reports a new method for calculating the external dose-rate as a function of height above land that has been contaminated with a surface deposition of (137)Cs. Unlike previous work this method accounts for vertical migration of (137)Cs using the Advection Dispersion Equation (ADE) with appropriate parameters. The results have been successfully verified with field measurements from the (137)Cs contaminated regions within the Republic of Belarus. The method also correctly predicts the observed variation of dose-rate with elevation above the soil surface and it is shown how this method can be used to predict the reduction in surface dose-rate after remediation measures such as deep ploughing have taken place.     

Effect of heavy metals and PAH on soil assessed via dehydrogenase assay

Dehydrogenase enzyme activity (DHA) assay method using resazurin was accommodated for measuring of toxicity of compound contaminants on uncharacterized microbial communities present in any given soil. The method was used to compare the toxic effect of heavy metal and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) contaminant mixture (Cr, Pb, Cu, Cd, Pyrene) on four typical Estonian soils covering a range of compositions. The method proved to be useable on all soils; the sensitivity of soil microbiology to toxic effect of contaminants was found to have a negative correlation with Ca and organic matter (OM) content and a positive correlation with amorphous phase content of soils.     

基于能值生态足迹的浙江省可持续发展分析

应用能值分析和本地生态足迹对传统的生态足迹方法进行改进,将可更新资源和社会生产消费中的能量流换算成对应的生物生产性土地面积。对本地生态足迹的计算方法进行了优化,即对消费账户进行了贸易修正,更贴近实际。经过计算,得出浙江省2007年的人均生态承载力为1174 1 hm2,人均生态足迹为3946 2 hm2,人均生态赤字为2772 1 hm2,万元GDP生态足迹为1063 2 hm2。根据计算出2000～2008年的各项指标,〖JP+1〗进行时间上的纵向比较,分析其变化趋势。又以2007年为基准,与部分区域的相关指标进行横向比较,进而分析了浙江省的可持续发展状况。最后,结合浙江省实际,提出了发展雨水收集、潮汐能开发等新的资源能源利用模式,鼓励节约能源,大力发展林木及林产品加工产业、水产品养殖及加工产业,并对浙江省较高的资源利用效率进行了评价     

Monte Carlo calculation of entire in situ gamma-ray spectra

We present a method for the synthesis of entire in situ gamma-ray spectra based on Monte Carlo calculations and measured data that characterize the detector properties. The method can serve for the determination of the effective depth of 137Cs in soil based on the information contained in the low-energy part of an in situ spectrum. Effective depth is defined as the depth of a plane distribution of 137Cs beneath the surface that reproduces the fluence energy and angular distribution at 1 m above the ground of gamma rays belonging to the real 137Cs distributions. We managed to reproduce the measured in situ spectra with our method and to demonstrate that the method allows the determination of the effective depth of 137Cs with a precision of 10(-2) m. The method requires minimal experimental characterization of the detector and is not sensitive to the details of the detector model and the soil composition and density employed in the Monte Carlo calculations.     

区域经济发展对生态环境压力的定量评价

本文提出了评价区域经济发展对生态环境压力的一种定量方法：生态环境压力指数法。该方法设计了一个0～100尺度的生态环境压力指数(ESI)作为量度区域经济发展对生态环境的压力的大小。生态环境压力指数(ESI)由资源能源消耗分指数(RIn)和环境污染分指数（EPI）来计算。根据ESI数值和RECI与EPI的关系。可以判断生态环境压力的变化和主要来源。该方法被成功地应用于评价中国工韭经济发展对生态环境压力的现状和长期趋势。结果表明。该方法具有较强的综合性，较高的可靠性，较好的直观性。同时原理筒单。计算简便。是一种值得推广的评价区域经济发展对生态环境压力的定量方法。     

Construction of an optimum system design method considering product lifecycle

This paper proposes an optimum system design method that especially considers product lifecycles and aims to help designers make effective decisions during the product design phase. By considering and estimating all lifecycle factors of cost and environmental impact in addition to the product performance, this method facilitates development of optimum design solutions that incorporate requirements pertaining to the product's entire lifecycle. Furthermore, quantitative estimation of lifecycle factors enables the numerical expression of optimum solutions, rather than depending primarily on experiment and designer intuition. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, this paper develops an optimum system design method for a milling machine as an example of a machine product designed for long term use. The lifecycle cost and the lifecycle environmental impact are generally expressed as the summation of each value during manufacturing phase, usage phase, disposal phase and recycling phase. In this example model, Eco-indicator 99 is used to evaluate environmental impact. In the proposed lifecycle design optimisation method, the relationships among the product performance, the lifecycle cost and the lifecycle environmental impact are evaluated as a multi-objective optimisation problem. Analysis of the obtained Pareto optimum solution sets subsequently enables designers to pursue breakthrough product design solutions.