中国典型资源型地区能源消耗与经济增长动态关系研究

随着国内外经济环境的复杂变化,中国资源型地区经济结构转型困难加剧。对资源型地区能源消耗与经济增长之间的关系进行研究,可以帮助该类型地区厘清经济发展过程中的能源消耗现状,对于优化资源型地区经济转型之路具有重要现实意义。本文以中国典型资源型地区山西省、黑龙江省、吉林省、辽宁省为例,选取1985—2014年数据,利用格兰杰因果分析对研究区能源消耗与经济增长之间的动态关系进行了研究。研究结果表明:1山西省表现出从经济增长到能源消耗的单向因果关系,黑龙江省与辽宁省表现出从能源消耗到经济增长的单向因果关系,吉林省表现出能源消耗与经济增长的双向因果关系;2山西省、黑龙江省、辽宁省都表现出从煤炭消耗到经济增长的单向因果关系,吉林省表现出煤炭消耗到经济增长的双向因果关系;3典型资源型地区都表现出从能源消耗到煤炭消耗的单向因果关系。4资源型地区转型务必将落实供给侧改革摆在发展首位。山西省应在提高能源使用效率的基础上选择集约化、低载能的新兴产业,黑龙江省与辽宁省应加大新能源的开发与产业化进程,产业应向高端装备制造业、现代服务业等产品附加值高、能源消耗少、环境污染小的产业转型,吉林省的重工业发展要以油气能源替代煤炭资源,在降低产业能耗的同时加速扶持已经相对成熟的替代产业,减少产业转型对于地区经济产生的负面影响。     

Causality relationship between CO2 emissions,GDP and energy intensity in Tunisia

This article analyzes the causality between the economic growth, the energy and the environment, measured by CO₂ emissions. Our empirical study is based on a series of annual data from 1980 to 2010 in Tunisia. Our study was conducted using the Granger causality test and variance decomposition. The empirical results confirm the presence of a positive effect between the energy consumption and the economic growth measured by gross domestic product (GDP). Thus, there is a unidirectional relationship between GDP and CO₂ emissions in the short term. This analysis shows, as is common to relatively fast-growing economies in Tunisia, that the biggest contributor to the rise is CO₂ emissions. Hence, in congruence with the result of variance decomposition, the GDP affects CO₂ emissions in the short and medium term at an almost constant level (10 %). The non-renewable energy intensity in Tunisian economy is responsible for a modest reduction in CO₂ emissions, which suggests the implementation of conservation policies aimed at energy efficiency and the orientation toward renewable energy.     

Energy consumption,emissions and economic growth in Bahrain

This study examines the Granger causality relationships between economic growth, energy consumption and emissions, from 1980 to 2007 in Bahrain, controlling for capital and urban population using Toda and Yamamoto’s approach. It was found that there is unilateral causality which runs from urban population, economic growth, capital and energy consumption to environment. Further, we found strong support for causality running from economic growth to energy consumption, emissions and capital. The existence of these linkages suggests that the government of Bahrain may pursue energy efficiency strategies and carbon emissions reduction policy in the long run without impeding economic growth. Additionally, the long run pursuit of high economic growth given sustained increases in energy efficiency may also reduce CO₂ emissions intensity per unit of her GDP.     

Pollutant emissions,energy consumption and economic development in China:Evidence from dynamic panel data

This study investigates the relationship among pollutant emissions,energy consumption and economic development in China during the period 1982-2007 by using a one-step GMM-system model under a multivariable panel VAR framework,controlling for capital stock and labor force.Regarding the data for all 28 provinces as a whole,we find that there is a unidirectional positive relationship running from pollutant emission to economic development and a unidirectional negative relationship between pollutant emission and energy consumption.Based on traditional economic planning,the panel data of28 provinces are divided into two cross-province groups.It is discovered that in the eastern coastal region of China,there is only a unidirectional positive causal relationship leading from economic development to pollutant emission;while in the central and western regions,there are the unidirectional Granger causal relationships between pollutant emission and energy consumption,as well as between pollutant emission and economic development.There is also a unique unidirectional causal relationship running from economic development to energy consumption,which does not appear in the eastem coastal region or in China as a whole.     

中国城市产业结构与CO_2排放的耦合关系

产业结构与CO_2排放量之间的相互作用形成产业结构与CO_2排放量的耦合关系。本文基于2012年中国1 km高空间分辨率网格CO_2排放数据(CHRED),运用耦合度模型,分析了中国288个城市产业结构与CO_2排放量的耦合特征。研究发现,中国产业结构和CO_2排放量之间正处于中度耦合一致性阶段,以资源型为主的城市产业结构和CO_2排放量处于极度耦合一致性阶段;工业型城市耦合度和一致性均高于服务业型城市;其他类型城市则分布比较分散没有呈现一定的规律性,而在其他类型的城市中,工业占比相对较高的城市耦合度和一致性往往高于农业和服务业占比较高的城市。根据产业结构和CO_2排放量的耦合度和一致性关系,将现有的城市分为4种类型,分别是产业结构与CO_2排放耦合一致性相关关系极强的城市,产业结构与CO_2排放耦合一致性相关关系较高的城市、产业结构和CO_2排放耦合一致性相关关系一般的城市以及产业结构和CO_2排放耦合一致性相关关系较弱的城市。通过对4种类型城市进行特征分析,4种类型城市在空间分布上具有明显的聚集效应,而且第二产业与碳排放之间的耦合一致性较高。     

Effects of energy consumption and ecological footprint on CO2 emissions: an empirical evidence from Pakistan

Environment, Development and Sustainability - This study aims twofold; first, to analyze the effects of traditional energy, renewable energy, ecological footprint, urbanization, transportation on...     

Tourism: economic development without increasing CO2 emissions in Pakistan

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Globally, the national and cultural resources of a country are major sources of attraction for tourism. Pakistan is gifted with abundant natural and...     

中国经济增长与能源消耗的脱钩——东部地区的时空分异研究

工业时代的经济增长是以大量消耗能源为代价的,直接导致环境污染和资源枯竭。将经济增速与环境压力脱钩的同时,实现将人类福祉与资源消耗的脱钩,是实现绿色可持续发展的焦点问题。采用Tapio基本模型构建中国能源消耗与经济增长的脱钩模型,将1979-2014年的脱钩指数划分为8种脱钩类型。结果说明,绝对而稳态的脱钩是不存在的。虽然大部分年份的中国处于弱脱钩状态,但长时间尺度上,经济增长与能源消耗存在"连接-脱钩-复钩-再脱钩"的动态反复过程。以中国东部地区10省份为例,研究脱钩指数变化的趋势和时间分异情况。结果显示,进入21世纪后该地区复钩的可能性不断增加,特别在经济增速趋缓的背景下,需要警惕以能源消耗驱动经济发展的模式重现。计算并比较脱钩指数的5年均值,研究中国东部地区脱钩的空间分异情况。结果表明,经济增长与能源消耗是否脱钩与宏观政策的调整密切相关。不断提高利用效率以减少能源消耗总量,保持弱脱钩是中国经济发展与能源消耗关系的常态。     

Road energy consumption,economic growth,population and urbanization in Egypt: cointegration and causality analysis

The study investigates the causal relationships between road energy consumption, economic growth, urbanization and population growth in Egypt over the period (1980–2011). I use Johansen cointegration approach, vector error correction model (VECM), generalized impulse response functions and variance decomposition technique. The results show the existence of long-run relationship between the variables. Moreover, the results indicate the existence of unidirectional long-run causality running from road energy consumption to urbanization and from road energy consumption to economic growth which implies the existence of growth hypothesis in the long run. Also, there is bidirectional short-run causality between road energy consumption and economic growth, which indicates the existence of feedback hypothesis in the short run. These results imply that road energy consumption determines economic growth in the both short run and long run and economic growth causes road energy consumption in the short run. And according to these results, several policy implications will be suggested for policymakers. They should take into consideration while implementing energy conservation policies, the possible negative effect on economic growth and have to concentrate on technological development policies and to make a shift towards using clean alternative fuel as natural gas and focus on investment in renewable energy resources.     

The win-win pathway of economic growth and CO2 emission reduction: a case study for China

ABSTRACT

Continuously reducing the CO₂ intensity of GDP is the core strategy for developing countries to realize the dual targets of economic growth and CO₂ emissions reduction. The measures are twofold: one is to strengthen energy saving and decrease energy intensity of GDP and the other is to promote energy structural decarbonization and reduce CO₂ intensity of energy consumption. In order to control global temperature rise no more than 2°C, the decrease in CO₂ intensity of GDP needs surpass 4% before 2030, but it could be merely about 2% based on the current trend. Therefore, all countries ought to speed up the low-carbon transition in energy and economy. As for China, keeping a continuous decline in CO₂ intensity of GDP of 4%–5% will ensure the realization of the NDC objectives, and also promotes the early peaking of CO₂ emissions before 2030. China will play a positive leading role in realizing a win-win low-carbon development coordinating sustainable development and climate change mitigation.     

Decoupling of nonferrous metal consumption from economic growth in China

Nonferrous metal is an important basis material for the development of the national economy, and its consumption directly affects economic development. It has great significance in the effective utilization of nonferrous metals, development of an environment-friendly society, and investigation of the decoupling of nonferrous metal consumption and GDP growth. The decoupling indicators for nonferrous metal consumption and GDP growth (D _r) in China from 1995 to 2010 were calculated in this study, and the results were analyzed. A productive model based on BP neural network was established. Then, the decoupling indicators for nonferrous metal consumption and GDP growth in China for the period of 2011–2020 were predicted. For the period of 1995–2010, the annual average decoupling indicators were <1 for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, and nickel, except for tin, which was 0.21. The analysis showed that the decoupling of nonferrous metal consumption and GDP growth is in a less optimistic situation to copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, and nickel in China from 1995 to 2010. The annual average decoupling indicator for tin was 0.21, which indicates relative decoupling. For the period of 2011–2020, the predicted decoupling indicators for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were between 0 and 1. This finding indicates the implementation of relative decoupling. However, the total consumption of nonferrous metals did not decouple from GDP growth.     

The nexus amid foreign direct investment,urbanization, and CO2 emissions: Evidence from energy grouping along the ECOWAS community

Environment, Development and Sustainability - The vision of every country or subregions is to achieve economic growth and sustainable economic growth. Thus, the Economic Community of West African...     

Predicting CO2 and SO2 emissions in the Baltic States through reorganization of energy infrastructure

The paper deals with predicting carbon dioxide and sulphur dioxide emissions generated by power production sector in the Baltic States in period up to year 2020. The economies of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are rapidly growing therefore forecast of emissions related with this occurrence becomes very important. The Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (INPP), one of the largest in the world, is situated in the region. Two power production scenarios are modelled to investigate changes in power sector's emissions expected as the consequences of the coming closure of Ignalina NPP. Power market was assumed to be common for all three Baltic countries and was modelled by applying the Balmorel model. The planned closure of Ignalina NPP will bring restructuring of Lithuania power production sector and will change also power transmission between countries. Predictive identified the potential of investments for new modern power generation technologies. At the same time, modelling results show in both scenarios that CO(2) and SO(2) emissions from power production in the Baltic region will increase. The increment of emissions is discussed in the context of meeting requirements of UNFCCC Kyoto protocol and EC Directives. Despite of CO(2) emissions increase the Kyoto protocol's requirements may be expected. At the same time, SO(2) formation in Lithuania power sector may exceed the limits of the EU Council Directive 2001/80/EB therefore the additional measures to control SO(2) emissions have to be investigated.     

金融节能、金融发展对碳排放变化的影响研究

本文将金融节能与金融发展同时引入传统LMDI分解模型,并融合脱钩弹性指数,分析了两者对碳排放变化的影响机理。在此基础上,本文还检验了1997—2015年中国29个省区金融节能与金融发展的碳排放效应。研究发现:首先,尽管1997—2015年中国碳排放规模的扩张趋势较为明显,短期来看,这一演变仍然大体经历了三个阶段,即碳排放增量持续扩张期、碳排放增量波动下降期以及碳排放增量平稳期。其次,不仅金融节能、金融发展以及经济增长是在短期和长期诱发中国碳排放变化的三个最主要因素,而且前两者对中国碳排放变化的影响还大于后者。再次,金融节能对中国碳排放变化的短期和长期作用方向始终与金融发展对中国碳排放变化的短期和长期作用方向相反。最后,金融节能和金融发展与中国碳排放变化之间在短期内基本维持弱脱钩或强负脱钩两种状态,而在长期呈现强负脱钩状态,通过分解这些脱钩弹性状态的诱因,不仅直接影响和交互影响的作用方向始终相反,而且两者还分别在金融节能与中国碳排放脱钩弹性变动以及金融发展与中国碳排放脱钩弹性变动中发挥截然相反的作用。     

CO2 emissions in German, Swedish and Colombian manufacturing industries

This study evaluates and compares the trends in CO₂ emissions for the manufacturing industries of three countries: two developed countries (Germany and Sweden) that have applied several measures to promote a shift towards a low-carbon economy and one developing country (Colombia) that has shown substantial improvements in the reduction of CO₂ emissions. This analysis is conducted using panel data cointegration techniques to infer causality between CO₂ emissions, production factors and energy sources. The results indicate a trend of producing more output with less pollution. The trends for these countries’ CO₂ emissions depend on investment levels, energy sources and economic factors. Furthermore, the trends in CO₂ emissions indicate that there are emission level differences between the two developed countries and the developing country. Moreover, the study confirms that it is possible to achieve economic growth and sustainable development while reducing greenhouse gas emissions, as Germany and Sweden demonstrate. In the case of Colombia, it is important to encourage a reduction in CO₂ emissions through policies that combine technical and economic instruments and incentivise the application of new technologies that promote clean and environmentally friendly processes.     

Modelling the connection between energy consumption and carbon emissions in North Africa: Evidence from panel models robust to cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity

Environment, Development and Sustainability - This paper explored the link between energy consumption and carbon emissions in North Africa through an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework....     

Life cycle energy and CO2 emissions analysis of food packaging: an insight into the methodology from an Italian perspective

Packaging is strictly connected to environmental issues as it is a product characterised by high material consumption rate; it is often transported over long distances and has a short life. Providing environmental analysis is, therefore, urgent to identify energy and resources efficient solutions. The paper, taking advantage of a real case study, presents a life cycle-based comparative analysis among three different food packaging systems. The paper compares the life cycle of tin steel, polypropylene and glass-based packaging of an Italian preserves producer. The analysis leads to the conclusion that, for the baseline scenario, polypropylene packaging represents the greenest solution, whereas glass packaging is the worst choice. The paper presents a scenario analysis varying both the method used for accounting for recycling as well as the recycling rates of the packaging materials. Changes in overall results with parameters analysis changing are calculated and highlighted throughout the paper. The impact of a reuse policy of the glass-based solution is also analysed; a model for disposable glass packaging is proposed and the obtained results are compared with the single use polypropylene and tin steel-based packaging. In order to analyse the impact of different End of Life scenarios on the present case study, collecting as well as recycling rates of some European countries have been used. The results revealed a significant fluctuation both in energy consumption and in CO₂ emission as the nation changes. Summing up, a methodology for packaging environmental impact analysis is applied to a real case study, some crucial aspects of the methodology have been analysed in depth in order to give a contribution in packaging environmental impact analysis.     

Impacts of economic growth and urbanization on CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions: regional differences in China based on panel estimation

This study analyzed the impact of urbanization and the level of economic development on CO₂ emissions using the STIRPAT model and provincial panel data for China. This study classified the 29 provinces of China into three groups (eastern, central, and western regions) and examined regional differences in the environmental impacts of urbanization and economic development levels. The results demonstrated that there was an inverted U-shaped relationship between urbanization and CO₂ emissions in the central and western regions of China. However, we did not confirm the environmental Kuznets curve relationship between urbanization and CO₂ emissions in eastern China, where CO₂ emissions increase monotonically with urbanization. This study showed that the impacts of urbanization differ considerably. There was a U-shaped relationship between economic growth and CO₂ emissions. However, the point of inflexion was very low, which indicates that economic growth will promote CO₂ emissions in China. The share of the industry output value had a marginal incremental effect on CO₂ emissions. There was a decreasing effect of population scale on CO₂ emissions. Energy efficiency is the main factor that restrains CO₂ emissions, and the effect was higher in regions with low energy efficiency.