Vulnerability of forests in the Himalayan region to climate change impacts and anthropogenic disturbances: a systematic review

Regional Environmental Change - The Himalayan region is not only threatened by rapid changes in anthropogenic activities but also by global climate change. Given the uncertainties of magnitude and...     

Critical linkages between land-use transition and human health in the Himalayan region

This article reviews critical linkages between land-use transition and human health in the Himalayan region by applying ecosystem approaches to human health (or EcoHealth). Land-use transition in the Himalayan and similar regions includes sedentarization, agricultural intensification, habitat modification, migration, change of livelihoods and lifestyles, biodiversity loss, and increasing flash floods. These transitions, which can have impacts on human health, are driven by state policies, a market economy, and climate change. Human health is dependent on access to ecosystem services for food, nutrition, medicine, fiber and shelter, fresh water, and clear air. Ecosystem management has been a key means of controlling disease vectors and creating suitable habitats for human well-being. The paper identifies the web of environmental factors that influence human health. Institutional and policy issues for land-use and health transitions are also discussed.     

Climate change in Nepal and its impact on Himalayan glaciers

Climate change can be particularly hard-hitting for small underdeveloped countries, relying heavily on natural resources for the economy and livelihoods. Nepal is one among these countries, being landlocked, with diverse physiographical characteristics within a relatively small territory and with rugged terrain. Poverty is widespread and the capacity of people and the country to cope with climate change impact is low. The country is dominated by the Asian monsoon system. The main occupation is agriculture, largely based on rain-fed farming practices. Tourism based on high altitude adventures is one of the major sources of income for the country. Nepal has a large hydropower potential. While only 0.75% of the theoretical hydropower potential has been tapped, Nepal can greatly benefit from this natural resource in the future. Climate change can adversely impact upon water resources and other sectors of Nepal. The source of water is mainly summer monsoon precipitation and the melting of the large reserve of snow and glaciers in the Himalayan highlands. Observations show clear evidences of significant warming. The average trend in the country is 0.06°C per year. The warming rates are progressively higher for high elevation locations. The warming climate has resulted in rapid shrinking of majority of glaciers in Nepal. This paper presents state-of-knowledge on the glacial dynamics in the country based on studies conducted in the past in Shorong, Khumbu, Langtang, Dhaulagiri and Kanchenjunga regions of Nepal. We present recent trends in river flow and an overview of studies on expected changes in the hydrological regime due to climate change. Formation, growth and likely outburst of glacial lake are phenomena directly related to climate change and deglaciation. This paper provides a synopsis of past glacial lake outburst floods impacting Nepal. Further, likely impacts of climate change on other sectors such as agriculture, biodiversity, human health and livelihoods are discussed.     

The relation between climate change in the Mediterranean region and global warming

Regional Environmental Change - The recent (twentieth century) and future (twenty-first century) climate evolution in the Mediterranean region is analyzed in relation to annual mean global surface...     

Social,hydro-ecological and climatic change in the southwest coastal region of Bangladesh

Regional Environmental Change - This study investigates the historical development of the southwest coastal region of Bangladesh through the lens of human-delta co-evolutionary system. The change...     

Modeling spatio-temporal change patterns of forest cover: a case study from the Himalayan foothills (India)

The present study used temporal remote sensing data for 1990, 2001 and 2006 to assess spatio-temporal patterns of forest cover changes in Shiwalik range of the Himalaya, Dehradun forest division. Forests are innately associated to human well-being. However, with the increasing anthropogenic activities, deforestation has increased. Quantitative change analysis of the forest cover for the past two decades provides valuable insight into the forest conservation vis-à-vis anthropogenic activities in the region. Spatio-temporal datasets along with biotic and abiotic variables provide opportunities to model the forest cover change further. The present study investigates forest cover change and predicts status of forest cover in the Dehradun forest division. Land Change Modeller (LCM) was used to predict status of forest cover for 2010 and 2015 using current disturbance scenarios. Comparing actual LULC of 2006 with the predicted LULC of 2006 validated change prediction model and agreement was 61.03%. The forested areas are getting degraded due to anthropogenic activities, but deforestation/degradation does not contribute much in expanding urban area. Agricultural areas and fallow lands are the main contributors to increased urban area. The study demonstrates the potential of geospatial tools to understand spatio-temporal forest cover change and generate the future scenarios.     

Statistical downscaling for climate change projections in the Mediterranean region: methods and results

Besides dynamical downscaling by regional climate models, statistical downscaling (SD) is a major tool to derive climate change projections on regional or even local scales. For the Mediterranean area, an increasing number of downscaling studies based on different statistical techniques have been published in the last two decades with a broad range of sometimes differing results relating to different variables and regional domains. This paper gives a short review of these Mediterranean downscaling studies mainly considering the following two aspects: (1) what kind of progress has been realized in this field since the early 1990s? The review addresses the inclusion of extremes in downscaling assessments, the development of probabilistic approaches, the extension of predictor sets, the use of ensembles for both dynamical model simulations and statistical model assessments, the consideration of non-stationarities in the predictor–predictand relationships, and some advances related to synoptic downscaling. (2) What are the main regional climate change signals in the Mediterranean area, considering agreed and controversial points also with respect to dynamical models? Best accordance among future projections can be found in seasonal temperatures with lower rates of warming in winter and spring, and, in most cases, higher ones in summer and autumn. Different results are obtained for the intra-annual range of extreme temperatures, but high-temperature conditions are generally expected to increase. Regarding seasonal precipitation, predominant reductions are indicated for spring, summer, and autumn. For winter, however, projections are distinctly different (GCMs: rainfall decrease; RCMs: increase only in the northernmost parts of the Mediterranean region; SD: widespread increases in the northern and western parts in several studies). Different results are obtained for rainfall extremes, but the entire precipitation distribution tends to shift towards higher and lower values. Apart from some sub-regional deviations, there is a predominant increase in future dry period durations. For near-surface winds, only a few studies are available, and they project some decline mainly for the winter season.     

Contract farming and the adoption of climate change coping and adaptation strategies in the northern region of Ghana

In climate change adaptation, contract farming can facilitate the adoption of coping and adaptation strategies, but such dynamics are less understood in the literature. This study uses primary data collected from a cross section of crop farmers in northern Ghana and a simultaneous equation systems approach to examine the links between contract farming and adoption of climate change coping and adaptation strategies. The major coping and adaptation strategies used by farmers include spraying of farms with chemicals, row planting, mixed farming, mixed cropping and crop rotation. Econometric results confirm that contract farming enhances the adoption of climate change adaptation strategies, but there is also a feedback effect on contract farming, such that farmers adopting more adaptation strategies have higher probabilities to get contract offer. This makes contract farming a viable policy instrument to consider in climate change adaptation. Furthermore, land ownership and extension services exert significant positive influence on adoption. As much as possible, coping and adaptation strategies should effectively be communicated to crop farmers. Policy-wise, development actors and successive governments in Ghana should encourage and facilitate contract or group farming, as was in the case of the National Block Farming, led by Ghana’s Ministry of Food and Agriculture.     

Supporting climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessments in the Asia-Pacific region: an example of sustainability science

Sustainability is achieved only when there is full reconciliation between: (1) economic development; (2) meeting, on an equitable basis, growing and changing human needs and aspirations; and (3) conserving the limited natural resources and the capacity of the environment to absorb the mulitple stresses that are a consequence of human activities. The linkages between climate and sustainability are examined in the context of both the wider Asia-Pacific region and local level climate risks and adaptation responses. These findings are used to underpin and illustrate several implications for sustainability science. Climate change is seen as both an impediment to increasing sustainability and as an opportunity, though in most cases the former far outweighs the latter. Assessments of climate change vulnerability and risk are shown to be of critical importance because they inform decisions as to where resources for adaptation are best invested. They also show whether global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions need to be strengthened because of limits to adaptation. In practice, adaptation takes place at many levels, essentially ranging between tangible interventions at community and enterprise level and national and international efforts to strengthen the enabling environment for adaptation. It is informative to undertake regional assessments of adaptation, even though most adaptation interventions need to reflect local conditions, including local adaptive capacities. The foregoing findings, based in part on a series of regional and local case studies, lead to several recommendations for further research that will help reduce barriers to implementing responses that reduce climate related risks, including adverse consequences for sustainability. The recommendations relate to such themes as making optimum use of predictive capabilities, characterising the linkages between climate change and sustainability, implications of the required rates and magnitudes of adaptation, institutional responses that enhance adaptive capacity, use of new and traditional technologies, the multiple dimensions of social responsibility, and enhancing the enabling environment for adaptation at the community and enterprise level. If these recommendations are acted upon they will, in turn, help address much needed improvements in quantifying the costs and benefits of adaptation, prioritising adaptation options, assessing sustainable development tradeoffs, and monitoring the success of adaptation initiatives. Such improvements will have even greater utility if they are incorporated into user-friendly decision support tools for adaptation.     

Mainstreaming ecosystem-based climate change adaptation into integrated water resources management in the Mekong region

Regional Environmental Change - Efficient, equitable, and transboundary management of the water resources of the Mekong River Basin (MRB) is challenged by ongoing and accelerating alteration of the...     

Non-timber forest product dependency in the Central Himalayan foot hills

Rural households throughout the Himalayas are regarded as dependent on non-timber forest products (NTFPs), but very few studies have quantified this dependency. This case study, undertaken in two villages in the Central Himalayan foot hills in Nepal, documents the absolute and relative importance of commercial NTFPs to rural household economies. Data were collected in a one-year period and included interviews with 250 households using a semi-structured questionnaire and monthly interviews with four sub-local NTFP traders, two local traders and two central wholesalers. The conservative estimate of NTFP-derived cash income showed this to be a cornerstone in poorer household livelihood strategies and thus in poverty prevention. An annual average of 578 kg of commercial NTFPs was collected in the wild per household, providing poorer households with a cash income share of 44–78%. Better off households are not NTFP dependent but rely on income from crop production and livestock. Based on a net marketing margin analysis, showing that harvesters capture a large share of the Indian wholesaler price, it is argued that there is scope for pursuing NTFP-based strategies for poverty reduction through leasehold forestry and agroforestry. Both these options are compatible with conserving forest cover and forest corridor functions and may thus present a win–win scenario for livelihood improvement and conservation.     

Climate change impacts on vegetation and water cycle in the Euro-Mediterranean region,studied by a likelihood approach

Scientific community and policy-makers share the common interest in identifying and evaluating potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems, relying mainly on probabilistic methods of exploring the risks. In this perspective, the concept of ensemble forecasting makes possible to handle uncertainties associated with climate risk analysis by focusing on a range of potential or probable impact scenarios rather than actualizing a single case. In this paper, an ensemble of simulations based on the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) model was used to investigate the uncertainty upon predictions of the future Euro-Mediterranean vegetation distribution, carbon dynamics, and water budget. Twenty simulations from past to future were based on the combination of different climate inputs, vegetation model parameterizations, and configurations. The evaluation of results combined the separate deterministic future projections from the LPJ model into a single probabilistic projection, associating a likelihood degree in accordance with the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change terminology. Results projected a general critical situation in terms of water availability, made more serious if considering that also the occurrence of extreme-related events, e.g., fires, is expected to become more frequent as favored by more recurrent drought episodes. Although more uncomfortable climate conditions were projected for vegetation, net primary production (NPP) was predicted to increase due to the potential enrichment of CO₂ in atmosphere and its fertilization effects on vegetation. The combination of rising NPP and fire frequency may shape the carbon cycle components, as the carbon losses by fire also were projected to increase.     

Resilience and adaptation to extremes in a changing Himalayan environment

Human communities inhabiting remote and geomorphically fragile high-altitude regions are particularly vulnerable to climate change-related glacial hazards and hydrometeorological extremes. This study presents a strategy for enhancing adaptation and resilience of communities living immediately downstream of two potentially hazardous glacial lakes in the Upper Chenab Basin of the Western Himalaya in India. It uses an interdisciplinary investigative framework, involving ground surveys, participatory mapping, comparison of local perceptions of environmental change and hazards with scientific data, identification of assets and livelihood resources at risk, assessment of existing community-level adaptive capacity and resilience and a brief review of governance issues. In addition to recommending specific actions for securing lives and livelihoods in the study area, the study demonstrates the crucial role of regional ground-level, community-centric assessments in evolving an integrated approach to disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation for high-altitude environments, particularly in the developing world.     

A multidisciplinary study on the effects of climate change in the northern Adriatic Sea and the Marche region (central Italy)

An integrated analysis of recent climate change (including atmosphere, sea and land), and social reaction and adaptation, was conducted in central Italy and the northern portion of the Adriatic Sea. The collected environmental data included meteorological, oceanographic, and river gauges stations, covering the time period 1961–2009. Social data included 800 questionnaires and interviews carried out on selected samples of residents, decision-makers, and emergency managers. The trend analysis of air temperature data detailed an overall increase in all seasons, whereas rainfall data showed decrease in winter, spring, and summer, and increase in autumn, influencing river flow changes. Marine data showed a warming of the water column after the year 1990, particularly relevant in the cold season. Surface salinity increased in spring and summer and strongly decreased in autumn and also in winter (due to the spreading over the basin of the increased autumnal river runoff). These changes, combined with anthropogenic effects, appear to influence the northern Adriatic marine environment and ecosystems. Impacts in the coastal areas are also evident inland; the analysis of Aridity index, and potential water deficit, suggests negative impacts in terms of soil deterioration and agricultural productivity, particularly in the area near the coastline. At the same time, the analysis of social data revealed awareness among local residents of these impacts and associated risks connected to climate change. Yet, this awareness is not currently translated into preventive and protective actions; among the main reasons for this delay is also ineffective information exchange among citizens, public administrators, and the scientific community.     

Observed and predicted impacts of climate change on the estuaries of south-western Australia,a Mediterranean climate region

Regional Environmental Change - Regions with a Mediterranean climate are generally predicted to become warmer and drier with climate change. Estuaries in these regions are influenced by a broad...     

Photochemical dispersion modeling: Review of model concepts and applications studies

Over the last decade, the development and application of sophisticated atmospheric models that simulate the transport and dispersion of ozone and its precursors have advanced rapidly. Further advancements are most likely to be found in more complete temporal and spatial characterization of photochemical smog formation processes via measurement. This paper provides an overview of the development of atmospheric photochemical dispersion models, first discussing in general terms the various physical processes occurring in the atmosphere that govern the formation, transport, and ultimate fate of ozone. Procedures for representing these physical processes in mathematical terms are presented next. Nearly all of the photochemical models in use today are derived from the semiempirical atmospheric diffusion equation, though theoretical formulations vary depending on which of the various terms in the pollutant mass balance equation are deemed significant for the application at hand. Examples of recent applications of the range of available photochemical model are presented, together with estimates of the accuracy of each generic modeling concept. Several topics warranting future research are identified, including the need to incorporate explicitly more of the stochastic (or probabilistic) nature of the atmosphere into the form of current photochemical model predictions (i.e., estimates of the variance and higher order moments of the predicted concentration distribution).