我国水源污染事故风险点定量识别方法

水源事故的频发会对城市供水系统产生威胁,有必要针对供水系统风险进行评估和防控。针对水源事故频发及高发因素定量甄别研究,筛选统计了国内近20年来1 900多起水质突发事故案例,梳理了触发水源水质污染的多种因素,通过构建水源水质安全事故树和贝叶斯网络进行了相互验证分析。结果表明：我国水源污染事故主要因素贡献为依次突然排放(0.466)、污染长期累积(0.242)、交通事故(0.109)等;采用贝叶斯网络计算进行验证,其结果与事故树方法一致性较好。该方法有助于水源污染防控工作中风险点甄别和排序,可为我国饮用水安全保障水平的提升提供支撑。     

环境风险评价简介

在概述了环境风险评价的必要性、现状和研究进展的基础上，介绍了环境风险评价研究的有关基本概念以及风险评价的主要内容、方法和步骤，指出风险评价中存在的不足，并在此基础上提出了一些建议。     

环境风险评价研究进展

本文论述了环境风险评价研究的有关基本概念，以及主要研究内容的发展，指出了风险评价中存在的不足，并在比基础上提出了一些建议     

突发性环境污染事故风险管理进展

在介绍突发性环境污染事故的概念、类型与特性的基础上,综述了近年来国内外风险管理的进展。要对突发性环境污染事故进行风险管理,需要有组织的风险管理体系和风险管理计划。风险管理计划应当包括危害的风险评价、预防和应急反应三部分内容。文中详细阐述了突发性环境污染事故的预防、应急处理与对策、善后处理与影响评价的主要内容和方法。     

浅谈工业项目环境风险评价

阐述了工业项目环境风险评价的发展、概念和重要性以及评价的基本程序。     

化学品突发性爆炸事故的环境风险分析方法与计算程序

探索并建立了模拟与计算化学品突发爆炸事故对环境破坏影响的基本程序,提供了有关液化石油气突发性爆炸事故的计算实例。     

建立环境风险防范体系加强对环境风险的管理

阐明了环境风险管理的必要性,提出了环境风险管理的对策和措施。同时,结合当前环境突发事件应急预案编制存在的主要问题,提出了浙江省规范环境突发事件应急预案编制的建议。     

论环境风险及其管理制度建设

在阐明环境风险和环境风险管理的概念和内涵的基础上,叙述了中国面临的主要环境风险,提出了中国环境风险管理制度建设的建议.并着重指出,国家应当对重点风险源进行直接管理.     

啤酒行业涉氨环境风险特征、评估及防控对策

为了解和掌握啤酒行业涉氨环境风险状况,分析了啤酒行业液氨在运输、贮存和使用过程中的环境风险单元和特征。以典型啤酒厂为例,对其环境风险进行评估,确定环境风险等级,并利用环境风险评价系统(RiskSystem)模型对其在不同风速条件下发生液氨泄漏的环境风险进行了预测分析,进而提出有针对性的环境风险防控对策。研究结果表明:啤酒行业在液氨贮存和运输环节存在较大的环境风险,阀门、法兰、接口等连接部位腐蚀和操作不当是氨泄漏的主要原因。根据典型案例环境风险评估和模拟预测结果,在受体敏感区域环境风险较大,风速对氨泄漏事故的影响范围有较大作用,需要严格预防和加强风险控制。建议国家和地方尽快出台相应的环境风险防范技术规范;涉氨单位应以预防为主,加强环境风险单元和重点环节的隐患排查力度,严格落实风险防控措施和要求。     

基于区域环境风险敏感性分析的石油化工行业规划环境风险评价

石油化工行业规划涉及多个石油化工项目的选址和多个备选方案的比选,增大了环境风险评价的不确定性.基于区域环境风险敏感性分析,研究了环境风险评价方法.在传统的环境风险分析框架即事故的发生概率(风险度)与事故的环境后果的基础上,考虑区域环境风险敏感性对环境风险评价的影响,对规划布局涉及区域的环境风险进行评价,最后将该方法初步应用于实际案例中.研究表明,该方法可以有效地分析多个备选方案的规划的环境风险,分析结果直观、可行,且可以辅助决策者对产业布局的合理性作出准确的判断,通过对该方法在应用中存在问题的分析,展望了规划环境风险评价的进一步工作.     

Multi-criteria analysis and risk assessment

ELECTRE or Concordance Analysis is a French system of multicriteria analysis which is used in economics.The application of ELECTRE for hazard evaluation and risk assessment of chemical substances is suggested, and a first attempt in adapting it for this purpose is presented.     

Assessing soil Cu content and anthropogenic influences using decision tree analysis

Recent enhanced urbanization and industrialization in China have greatly influenced soil Cu content. To better understand the magnitude of Cu contamination in soil, it is essential to understand its spatial distribution and estimate its values at unsampled points. However, Kriging often can not achieve satisfactory estimates when soil Cu data have weak spatial dependence. The proposed classification and regression tree method (CART) simulated Cu content using environmental variables, and it had no special data requirements. The Cu concentration classes estimated by CART had accuracy in attribution to the right classes of 80.5%, this is 29.3% better than ordinary Kriging method. Moreover, CART provides some insight into the sources of current soil Cu contents. In our study, low soil Cu accumulation was driven by terrain characteristic, agriculture land uses, and soil properties; while high Cu concentration resulted from industrial and agricultural land uses.     

典型大宗工业固体废物产生现状分析及产生量预测

针对大宗工业固体废物产生量大、历史堆存量多的问题,基于历史年份产废量和行业贡献度分析结果,运用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测了2021–2025年特定行业典型大宗工业固体废物产生量。结果表明,尾矿、粉煤灰、煤矸石、冶炼废渣、炉渣、脱硫石膏等6种典型大宗工业固体废物普遍集中产生于1~2个特定行业,且特定行业的贡献程度普遍超过80％。到2025年,我国金属矿采选业尾矿,电力、热力生产和供应业粉煤灰,煤炭开采和洗选业煤矸石,黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业冶炼废渣,电力、热力生产和供应业炉渣及脱硫石膏产生量将分别达到13.46×10¹¹、6.45×10¹¹、15.86×10¹¹、6.21×10¹¹、2.57×10¹¹和2.50×10¹¹ kg,较2019年产生量分别增长55％、39％、238％、73％、52％和131％。建议充分考虑以采矿、冶金、电力、热力等产废量较大的行业为治理重点,并合理规划大宗工业固体废物利用处置设施布局和能力建设。本研究结果可为“十四五”时期深入开展“无废城市”建设,科学制订产废行业环境管理政策提供参考。     

Statistical analysis of sudden chemical leakage accidents reported in China between 2006 and 2011

According to the data from authoritative sources, 1,400 sudden leakage accidents occurred in China during 2006 to 2011 were investigated, in which, 666 accidents were used for statistical characteristic abstracted with no or little damage. The research results were as follows: (1) Time fluctuation: the yearly number of sudden leakage accidents is shown to be decreasing from 2006 to 2010, and a slightly increase in 2011. Sudden leakage accidents occur mainly in summer, and more than half of the accidents occur from May to September. (2) Regional distribution: the accidents are highly concentrated in the coastal area, in which accidents result from small and medium-sized enterprises more easily than that of the larger ones. (3) Pollutants: hazardous chemicals are up to 95 % of sudden leakage accidents. (4) Steps: transportation represents almost half of the accidents, followed by production, usage, storage, and discard. (5) Pollution and casualties: it is easy to cause environmental pollution and casualties. (6) Causes: more than half of the cases were caused by human factor, followed by management reason, and equipment failure. However, sudden chemical leakage may also be caused by high temperature, rain, wet road, and terrain. (7) The results of principal component analysis: five factors are extracted by the principal component analysis, including pollution, casualties, regional distribution, steps, and month. According to the analysis of the accident, the characteristics, causes, and damages of the sudden leakage accident will be investigated. Therefore, advices for prevention and rescue should be acquired.     

Airborne uranium contamination--as revealed through elemental and isotopic analysis of tree bark

A new strategy for characterisation of airborne uranium contamination based on ICP mass spectrometric analysis of tree bark is described. The uranium content of tree barks (50 samples) obtained from diverse locations (remote, rural, industrial) varied over almost four orders of magnitude (0.001-8.3 micrograms/g U) with maximum concentrations recorded in the vicinity of a nuclear fuel fabrication plant (0.70-8.3 micrograms/g U). Elevated concentrations were also observed near a coal-fired power station (0.25-0.38 microgram/g U). Isotopic analysis revealed significant deviation from the natural uranium isotope ratio (235U/238U, 0.00725) at four nuclear installations (235U/238U, 0.0055-0.0097). These findings indicate that tree bark serves as an effective biomonitor for uranium and, with isotopic analysis, discrimination between nuclear and non-nuclear emissions is realised.     

基于因子分析法优选河流水体中氮浓度预测方法的研究

定量的河流水体中氮浓度预测方法有很多种,如何优选出预测精度较高的方法一直是学术界多年来致力于研究的重点。本研究采用因子分析法对预测方法的精度评价指标进行分析,并建立了预测方法精度的评价模型,对回归分析法、神经网络法、灰色系统法和增长率统计法4种水体氮浓度预测方法进行综合评估,优选出精度较高的河流水体氮浓度预测模型——BP神经网络预测模型。结果表明,此评估模型对类似研究具有一定的参考价值,能为选择出合适的河流水体氮浓度预测方法提供依据。     

Multidimensional risk analysis of antifouling biocides

In order to improve the orientation about the long-term sustainability of the use of the antifouling biocides tributyltin (TBT), copper, Irgarol® 1051, Sea-Nine? 211 and zinc pyrithione, used for the protection of fouling in sea-going ships, the risks posed to the marine biosphere due to their use are evaluated. The newly presented method of risk analysis uses release rate, spatiotemporal range, bioaccumulation, bioactivity and uncertainty as 5 dimensions of ecotoxicological risk. For each dimension, a scoring procedure is briefly described. The resulting risk profiles of the antifouling biocides show characteristics of the different substances, but also indicate where further information is required. Application of the method is proposed as a decision support in the integrated development of products, informed purchasing and for regulatory purposes.     

基于集对分析的降水酸度及水质相似预测模型研究

应用集对分析法刻画历史样本之间的相似性,用多个最相似的历史样本的加权平均值作为当前样本预测值,建立了基于集对分析的降水酸度及水质相似预测模型(SFM-SPA),并运用该模型进行了降水酸度及水质预测的实例验证。结果表明,在主要影响因子选择适当、历史样本的代表性和相似性较好等限定条件下,利用模型进行环境预测是可行的,它较直观、计算简便,为环境污染预测提供了新的途径。