Water Management Decision Making in the Face of Multiple Forms of Uncertainty and Risk

In the Wasatch Range Metropolitan Area of Northern Utah, water management decision makers confront multiple forms of uncertainty and risk. Adapting to these uncertainties and risks is critical for maintaining the long‐term sustainability of the region's water supply. This study draws on interview data to assess the major challenges climatic and social changes pose to Utah's water future, as well as potential solutions. The study identifies the water management adaptation decision‐making space shaped by the interacting institutional, social, economic, political, and biophysical processes that enable and constrain sustainable water management. The study finds water managers and other water actors see challenges related to reallocating water, including equitable water transfers and stakeholder cooperation, addressing population growth, and locating additional water supplies, as more problematic than the challenges posed by climate change. Furthermore, there is significant disagreement between water actors over how to best adapt to both climatic and social changes. This study concludes with a discussion of the path dependencies that present challenges to adaptive water management decision making, as well as opportunities for the pursuit of a new water management paradigm based on soft‐path solutions. Such knowledge is useful for understanding the institutional and social adaptations needed for water management to successfully address future uncertainties and risks.     

FOREST HYDROLOGY ISSUES FOR THE 21ST CENTURY: A CONSULTANT'S VIEWPOINT1

ABSTRACT: Forest hydrology should be a mature science with routine use of hydrological procedures to evaluate the effect of past, current and proposed harvesting practices on water resources. It is not. However, water users are pressuring forest managers to exercise their role in managing forested watersheds for water supply. Most forest managers are poorly equipped to carry out this role. Forestry schools need to ensure that their graduates, whether employed in forest management positions or as specialists in watershed management, understand that all forestry operations may affect instream or downstream water users. Specialists in forest hydrology should be fully aware of the following: (1) climate and watershed characteristics influence streamflow in separate ways; (2) forestry practices produce changes in water yield and quality, and that only these changes need to be evaluated to estimate their effects; (3) watershed storage is a critical factor in evaluating the effects of harvesting on streamflow; and (4) the effect of harvest on one watershed cannot be extrapolated to another without consideration of the processes affected. Research is needed to assist watershed managers in applying models to watersheds for which climate and streamflow data are insufficient. Research is also needed to incorporate climate, streamflow and other data for hydrological models into geographic information systems. Joint research projects are needed to develop physical relationships between stream channel characteristics of importance to fisheries biologists and streamflow characteristics affected by forest harvest.     

Planning Models for Sustainable Water Resource Development

This paper intends to present a critical review of the planning models that can be used for sustainable water resource development. Three types of models are identified and assessed: (1) economic analysis models; (2) decision analysis models; and (3) systems analysis models. The methodology adopted in this paper is based on first describing the different types of models and then synthesizing and evaluating these models in terms of their theoretical underpinnings, applications, strengths and weaknesses. Each model is investigated with respect to its utility in addressing sustainability in water resource management. The study concludes that decision-based and system-based models may offer a wider spectrum of concepts than economic models in addressing multi-objective, multi-actor or 'wicked' problems in water management and resource sustainability.     

ECONOMIC INCENTIVES FOR WATER CONSERVATION ON THE MONTEREY PENINSULA: THE MARKET PROPOSAL1

ABSTRACT: Literatures on price‐based urban water conservation and on market‐based mechanisms to manage natural resources suggest that market‐based management of urban/suburban water use may be feasible. A market‐based proposal that emerged from a water shortage on California's Monterey Peninsula is presented. In the proposal, conservation incentives arise both from an ability among end‐users of water to reduce consumption and sell use‐rights to water, and from a penalty price for consumption in excess of one's use rights. The amount of water associated with use rights is capped and varies according to hydrological, meteorological, ecological, and other criteria. Requirements for further study of the proposal are listed, and the role that similar market‐based mechanisms could play in urban water management is discussed.     

Characterizing and Contextualizing the Water Challenges of Megacities

We characterize and compare water challenges confronting the 28 megacities of the world in 2014. Relying on existing literature and diverse primary data sources, we present a unique portrait at a global scale of the water implications of the rapid growth in megacities. We find that differentiating and analyzing the complexity of megacities' water problems based on geographic contexts, historical development trajectories, urban population growth rates, and forms of urban expansion helps explain the nature of the various water management problems they confront. Two governance features also shed light on megacity water challenges: fragmentation resulting from forms of megacity urban expansion; and, urban dualism resulting from contradictions between historical and cultural legacies and the rise of global engineering and technological norms for water management. The increasing vulnerability of megacities to climate change poses risks as well as opportunities for a more collective response to address this global phenomenon. Our analysis raises important questions and offers guidance about the future trajectories of many more large cities around the world that are on their way to becoming megacities.     

Drought,water access,and urban agriculture: a case study from Silicon Valley

In California, the growing popularity of urban agriculture (UA) has unfolded against a backdrop of historic drought. While UA is often celebrated as an urban sustainability strategy, it must be able to persist during drought if it is to perform these functions. Using Santa Clara County – the geographic core of Silicon Valley – as a case study, we use interviews and surveys to explore the implications of drought for UA. We show how developing an understanding of water access for UA during a drought requires examining the social and institutional context of water management and use. In metropolitan California, the highly decentralised water supply system combined with the diverse institutional arrangements that support UA create an uneven landscape of water access. Consequently, the pressure to change water-consuming practices – that is, the stress that institutional drought responses place on different water users – is geographically and socially differentiated. Among UA water users, responses to drought have also varied, in part because the possibilities for change are constrained by the sociotechnical arrangements of UA sites and the different purposes of UA.     

Virtues of simple hydro-economic optimization: Baja California, Mexico

This paper uses simple hydro-economic optimization to investigate a wide range of regional water system management options for northern Baja California, Mexico. Hydro-economic optimization models, even with parsimonious model formulations, enable investigation of promising water management portfolios for supplying water to agricultural, environmental and urban users. CALVIN, a generalized hydro-economic model, is used in a case study of Baja California. This drought-prone region faces significant challenges to supply water to agriculture and its fast growing border cities. Water management portfolios include water markets, wastewater reuse, seawater desalination and infrastructure expansions. Water markets provide the flexibility to meet future urban demands; however conveyance capacity limits their use. Wastewater reuse and conveyance expansions are economically promising. At current costs desalination is currently uneconomical for Baja California compared to other alternatives. Even simple hydro-economic models suggest ways to increase efficiency of water management in water scarce areas, and provide an economic basis for evaluating long-term water management solutions.     

SNOTEL,the Soil Climate Analysis Network,and water supply forecasting at the Natural Resources Conservation Service: Past,present, and future

The Snow Survey and Water Supply Forecasting (SSWSF) Program and the Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN) of the United States Department of Agriculture's Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) generate key observational and predictive information for water managers. Examples include mountain climate and snow monitoring through manual snow surveys and the SNOw TELemetry (SNOTEL) and SNOtel LITE networks, in situ soil moisture data acquisition through the SCAN and SNOTEL networks, and water supply forecasting using river runoff prediction models. The SSWSF Program has advanced continuously over the decades and is a major source of valuable water management information across the western United States, and the SCAN network supports agricultural and other water users nationwide. Product users and their management goals are diverse, and use-cases range from guiding crop selection to seasonal flood risk assessment, drought monitoring and prediction, avalanche and fire prediction, hydropower optimization, tracking climate variability and change, environmental management, satisfying international treaty and domestic legal requirements, and more. Priorities going forward are to continue innovating to enhance the accuracy and completeness of the observational and model-generated data products these programs deliver, including expanded synergies with the remote sensing community and uptake of artificial intelligence while maintaining long-term operational reliability and consistency at scale.     

How multilateral financial institutions promote sustainable water infrastructure planning through economic appraisal: case studies from coastal cities of China

Sustainable urban water infrastructure planning is vital for all cities in developing countries, where rapid urbanization has exacerbated the increasingly burdened environment. Water sustainability is a prerequisite for economic growth, social equity, and living quality in urban areas. This paper documents the current challenges and summarizes the solutions adopted in water infrastructure planning and management. Then, case studies of how multilateral financial institutions have promoted sustainable water infrastructure planning through economic appraisal and the novel approaches adopted for sustainable water infrastructure planning and asset management, are presented for the three cities of Jiaozhou, Cixi, and Fangchenggang. Conclusions are made based on the comparison and analysis of the experiences drawn from the case studies of how economic analysis could help promote sustainable water infrastructure planning and management. It is illustrated that economic analysis that considers ecosystem services supply should be employed more in water infrastructure planning, operation, and management in China.     

COUNTY COMMISSIONERS' WATER KNOWLEDGE1

ABSTRACT: This study examines the social construction of county commissioners' knowledge about water. Factors that influence what commissioners know about water include each commissioner's personal characteristics, education, experience in natural resources management, involvement in policy making, and use and evaluation of various sources of information. This study focused on county commissioners representing rural, mixed, and urban counties in Arizona, Nevada, and Utah and collected data through mail surveys and interviews. County commissioners in the survey were well educated; however, few had taken college courses directly addressing technical, management, or legal aspects of water issues. Approximately one-third had direct experience in farming and ranching; nearly two-thirds indicated that farming and ranching played a major role in their communities. Respondents had experience with a broad range of water policy issues. In evaluating thirteen information sources in terms of their frequency of use, relevancy, and reliability, respondents assessed fellow commissioners and local government staff and managers most positively and nonprofit organizations most negatively. The media was also broadly rated as less relevant and reliable than other sources of information. The commissioners in the study expressed a high level of general concern about water issues and a strung preference for local sources of information.     

USING CLIMATE FORECASTS FOR WATER MANAGEMENT: ARIZONA AND THE 1997–1998 EL NIÑO1

ABSTRACT: Unrelenting pressure on limited surface water supplies requires increasingly sophisticated water management approaches. Climate forecasts of seasonal precipitation and temperature are potentially useful, but the operational water management community currently underutilizes them. However, some agencies in Arizona took unprecedented advantage of forecasts for a potentially wet winter during the 1997–1998 El Niño event. This study investigates use of this information through a series of semi‐structured in‐depth interviews with key personnel from agencies responsible for emergency management and water supply; their jurisdictions ranged from urban to rural and local to regional. Interviews investigated information acquisition, interpretation, and incorporation into specific decisions and actions. While unprecedented actions were taken by some water management agencies and no agencies implemented inappropriate measures, some missed opportunities for more effective response, primarily through inaction. This study reveals a variety of technical factors and institutional characteristics affecting forecast use. Study findings emphasize the need for: (a) closer ongoing relationships between forecast producers and users, (b) increased institutional flexibility to exploit the increasing skill of seasonal climate forecasts, (c) demonstration projects of effective forecast use, and (d) a regional forum to facilitate information transfer between the hydro‐climatic research community and operational water managers.     

Community‐based water supplies in Cikarang,Indonesia: are they sustainable?

Community‐based water supply (CBWS) is an example of how a community manages common pool resources (CPR). This results in an alternative approach to solve water supply problems in developing countries by enhancing community participation in managing water supply. This research evaluates the sustainability of five CBWS projects in Cikarang, Indonesia by using Ostrom's design principles, with additional sustainability factors found in the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) on drinking water and groundwater sustainability. Quinn et al. (2007) criteria were used in the analysis, and the results show that the management of four CBWS institutions were absent and one CBWS institution was weak. With regards to the SDG's drinking water target, the CBWS institutions were unable to comply with safe water standards, and in terms of groundwater sustainability, efforts to monitor and sustain groundwater tables were absent. Results from this research suggest that more focus must be placed on water quality and groundwater sustainability for CBWS projects.     

MANAGING THE NATION'S WATER IN A CHANGING CLIMATE1

ABSTRACT: Among the many concerns associated with global climate change, the potential effects on water resources are frequently cited as the most worrisome. In contrast, those who manage water resources do not rate climatic change among their top planning and operational concerns. The difference in these views can be associated with how water managers operate their systems and the types of stresses, and the operative time horizons, that affect the Nation's water resources infrastructure. Climate, or more precisely weather, is an important variable in the management of water resources at daily to monthly time scales because water resources systems generally are operated on a daily basis. At decadal to centennial time scales, though, climate is much less important because (1) forecasts, particularly of regional precipitation, are extremely uncertain over such time periods, and (2) the magnitude of effects due to changes in climate on water resources is small relative to changes in other variables such as population, technology, economics, and environmental regulation. Thus, water management agencies find it difficult to justify changing design features or operating rules on the basis of simulated climatic change at the present time, especially given that reservoir-design criteria incorporate considerable buffering capacity for extreme meteorological and hydro-logical events.     

Rethinking urban water management in Addis Ababa in the face of climate change: An urgent need to transform from traditional to sustainable system

Urban water management in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, is of significant concern to the city government owing to the growing demand for water, poor urban water management practices, insufficient and ineffective infrastructures, and climate change. The objective of this study is to review current water resources and management practices, consider the sustainability of the urban water cycle in relation to climate change, and devise a feasible strategy for a sustainable urban water management system. The results of this study show that the situation as it is now is not sustainable at current levels of demand and supply, either in terms of the systems’ management practices, or in terms of the challenges posed by climate change. An Integrated Urban Water Management strategy that covers the entire urban water cycle, including diversification of water sources, protection and conservation of water, sustainable exploitation, distribution, and consumption and wastewater management, water recycling, nutrient reuse, and safe wastewater disposal, should be implemented as soon as practicable.     

POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES IN THE GREAT PLAINS1

ABSTRACT: This paper reports on the current assessment of climate impacts on water resources, including aquatic ecosystems, agricultural demands, and water management, in the U.S. Great Plains. Climate change in the region may have profound effects on agricultural users, aquatic ecosystems, and urban and industrial users alike. In the central Great Plains Region, the potential impacts of climate changes include changes in winter snowfall and snow-melt, growing season rainfall amounts and intensities, minimum winter temperature, and summer time average temperature. Specifically, results from general circulation models indicate that both annual average temperatures and total annual precipitation will increase over the region. However, the seasonal patterns are not uniform. The combined effect of these changes in weather patterns and average seasonal climate will affect numerous sectors critical to the economic, social and ecological welfare of this region. Research is needed to better address the current competition among the water needs of agriculture, urban and industrial uses, and natural ecosystems, and then to look at potential changes. These diverse demands on water needs in this region compound the difficulty in managing water use and projecting the impact of climate changes among the various critical sectors in this region.     

USE OF STREAMFLOW INCREASES FROM VEGETATION MANAGEMENT IN THE VERDE RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Although the effects of vegetation management on streamflow have been studied in many locations, the effects of augmented streamflow on downstream water users have not been carefully analyzed. This study examines the routing of streamflow increases that could be produced in the Verde River Basin of Arizona. Reservoir management and water routing to users in the Salt River Valley around Phoenix were carefully modeled. Simulation of water routing with and without vegetation modification indicates that, under current institutional conditions, less than one-half of the streamflow increase would reach consumptive users as surface water. Most of the remainder would accumulate in storage until a year of unusually heavy runoff, when it would add to reservoir spills. Under alternative scenarios, from 39 to 58 percent of the streamflow increase was delivered to consumptive users.     

Beijing's Water Resources: Challenges and Solutions

Beijing's local water resources have been overexploited and the ecological and environmental pressures exceed the carrying capacity of this densely populated megacity. This article examines the current status of Beijing's water resources with respect to its industrial, residential, and eco‐environmental water usage and the challenges it may face in the near future. The article describes the context of water uses, the steps taken by Beijing to alleviate the water shortage problems, and challenges to Beijing's abilities to meet its urgent and future water needs. A multipronged strategy is proposed that aims at both the present problems and the anticipated future challenges. In particular, engineering and institutional approaches for Beijing's successful transition from overexploitation to sustainable utilization of water resources are explained. Actions include reasonable water utilization, water conservation, reclaimed wastewater, and importing water from neighboring areas. We conclude that Beijing must take additional steps in water resource management to ensure its sustainable development that involves continued urbanization sprawls and population growth. Future water resource management strategies should focus on strengthening water demand management through water conservation, efficient interbasin water transfers, use of nontraditional water resources, strategically reserving water supply, and promoting rehabilitation of the eco‐environments.     

CONJUNCTIVE SURFACE AND GROUND WATER MANAGEMENT IN THE JAKARTA REGION,INDONESIA1

ABSTRACT: This study investigates the degree of economic inefficiency of the current institutional arrangements for surface and ground water management in meeting urban water demand in the Jakarta region. A numerical model of integrated surface and ground water management is developed using GAMS (General Algebraic Modelling System) software. The model maximizes the net present value of social benefits from piped water and ground water consumption across all users over time from 1999 to 2025. Four policy scenarios are examined: the status quo, the social planner's solution, and two ground water pumping quota scenarios: an aggregate ground water pumping quota and a partial quota applied to commercial and industrial users. Three variations in each policy scenario are considered: investment in water infrastructure of the Jakarta water enterprise (PAM Jaya), water demand growth, and discount rates. The status quo, depending on the investment option, the growth of water demand, and the discount rate, results in a 7.4 to 47.8 percent loss in economic efficiency relative to the social planner's solution. The partial quota is the most feasible, applicable, and manageable scenario. The optimal investment option could increase the volume of piped water supply and reduce the cost of water production. The volume of water delivery could increase by up to 156 percent, but it implies only a 35 percent increase in the surface raw water demands above the current level. However, it does not significantly reduce cumulative ground water extraction over the time period considered.     

A multidisciplinary sustainability index to assess transport in urban areas: a case study of Donostia-San Sebastian,Spain

The management of urban transportation systems represents one of the most formidable challenges for local government that generates several problems related to the well-being and the comfort of the public that commute and travel in their daily life. Improvements to various policies and practical measures can move us closer to the ideal of sustainable urban areas with sustainable urban transportation systems. Nevertheless, these aspirations in no way ensure unanimity over the most effective actions to take and the extent of their benefits. In response, a mathematical model has been developed for decision-taking purposes using multi-criteria analysis adapted to urban transportation systems. This model not only takes account of environmental parameters, but also examines economic, social and urban models, the characteristics and condition of the transport fleet and freight distribution vehicles, in order to generate a sustainability index value for the transportation system of urban areas.     

Environmental and resource sustainability of Chinese cities: A review of issues,policies, practices and effects

This paper synthesizes the English literature on current issues, policies and practices, and their effects on environmental and resource sustainability in China's ongoing urbanization. Aspects of urban sustainability reviewed include air, water, solid waste, energy efficiency, transportation and land use. It shows that Chinese cities have been and probably will continue to be struggling with issues such as air pollution, scarcity of clean water, solid waste and greenhouse gas emissions. But there are many opportunities for improvement. It suggests shortages of existing policies and major gaps in knowledge and practice, which can be helpful to policy makers, planners and researchers in China and other developing countries.