应用强震应力降和视应力进行震后趋势快速判定的可能性

收集整理了中国大陆107次M≥5.0地震的震型、发震断层性质等资料,分不同发震断层性质和不同震型两种情况,比较了不同地震视应力的大小关系。结果显示,地震视应力的高低和发震断层性质有关,也和地震类型有关。走滑型地震的视应力高于非走滑型地震的视应力,走滑断层中孤立型地震视应力低于多震型地震视应力。非走滑型地震情况则复杂得多,既有视应力很高的孤立型地震,也有视应力很低的多震型地震。为了进一步探索利用强震本身的信息快速判定震型的方法,还通过视应力计算了18例强震的静态应力降与动态应力降之比值Y,得到当Y>0.2时,强震可能为孤立型或近孤立型的主震—余震型地震,当Y<0.2时,强震可能为多震型或强余震丰富的主震—余震型地震的认识。     

地震地表破裂与发震断层的性状

本文在总结地震地面破坏实地考察和统计的基础上,发现地震地面破坏的类型与发震断层的性状关系密切。以走滑为主的发震断层,可产生大规模的地震地表破裂;以倾滑为主的高角度发震断层有时可产生一定规模的地震地表破裂;以倾滑为主的低角度发震断层或连通不好的发震断层,地震地表破裂不发育,而次生的地面破坏普遍发育。倾滑型发震断层产生的地面破坏在多方面具有类似的特征,但逆断层性质的发震断层产生的地面破坏分布在断层下盘,而正断层性质的发震断层产生的地面破坏分布在断层的上盘。并进行了有限元模拟,表明,地震地面破坏分布受断层能量释放区域的控制。     

地震影响场应急评估方法研究

为了提高地震影响场应急评估的准确性,首先分析了西南地区不同震级地震与当地活断层之间的相应关系,然后给出了不同震级地震各烈度区的长短轴经验矩阵;基于此,结合地震应急指挥中心的工作实践,提出了一种地震影响场应急评估方法。地震影响场应急评估分为初评估和动态修正两个阶段。初评估阶段为震后0.5~1 h,实现影响场方向和各烈度区面积的准确评估;动态修正阶段为震后1~2 h,实现影响场空间分布的准确评估。初评估阶段以微观震中为中心、以对应震级的最近断层方向为影响场方向、采用矩阵给出的该震级各烈度区长短轴长度进行影响场计算;动态评估是在初步评估的基础上,利用余震信息快速判定宏观震中和影响场方向,并将影响场中心(宏观震中)和方向修正到基于余震信息判定的结果上。最后,以四川芦山7.0级地震为例,介绍了此方法的技术流程、实用范围和可靠性。     

汶川大地震宏观震中问题的讨论

采用大地震诱发崩塌滑坡特点与地面破坏程度相结合,以及极震区几何中心方法,定性判定了汶川大地震的宏观震中位置。判定结果是汶川大地震应该有2个宏观震中,一是映秀镇牛圈沟为映秀极震区宏观震中,坐标位置:31.045 6°N,103.455 6°E;二是北川老县城为北川极震区宏观震中,坐标位置:31.863 7°N,104.361 0°E。两种判定方法相比,前者更符合山区特殊地质地貌环境下的地震破坏规律。     

利用连续GPS资料分析芦山7.0级地震区域地壳变形特征

2013年4月20日,龙门山断裂带南段四川芦山附近发生7.0级地震,造成较严重地震灾害及其次生灾害。为研究地震区域地壳变形特征,利用芦山地震震中周边陆态网GPS连续站2010-2013年的观测资料,得到发震区域水平运动速度场和垂直形变场,获得距震中较近站点的同震位移;利用站间基线时间序列和应变参数时间序列得到了区域应变积累背景,并结合块体运动信息分离方法,进一步分析了震前可能存在的异常形变信息。从中得知:芦山地震发震区域处于块体挤出的"分流"地带,地壳水平变形量较小。站间基线QHBM-SCSN和QHBM-SCXJ在2012年下半年均出现偏离原有运动速率的趋势。SCXJ站时间序列信息分离结果显示,其N向和E向应变贡献分量在2012年也有曲线转折现象。     

地震序列的h值快速震型判别与强余震预测

用数值拟合的方法对１９６６年以来７６个ＭＬ≥５．５地震序列的衰减特性进行了较详细的研究，提出从ｈ值的逐日时间扫描和逐日累积时间扫描两个方面去把握地震序列的衰减过程并将其用于强余震（含双震）的预测和震型的快速判定。     

苍山5.2级地震的宏观烈度特征

以实地考察资料为基础,确定了１９９５年９月２０日苍山５２级地震宏观震中,地震等震线、发震构造,并对地震趋势进行了预测。研究结果表明,苍山５２级地震的宏观震中位于苍山县沂堂乡台井和塞子一带（北纬３４°５８５′,东经１１８°０８′）;工程地质和地形地貌条件,构造环境和震源破裂是影响地震烈度分布的主要因素;其发震构造系共轭破裂,北西向为主破裂,北东向为辅助破裂;研究认为本次地震发生在一条规模较小的北西向断层上,未来相当长一段时间内沿这条断层不会再发生５级以上地震。     

震中烈度与震级和震源深度经验关系的统计回归分析

震中烈度是震源附近宏观破坏最为严重区域的地震烈度,快速判定其大小对指导抗震救灾具有重要意义。搜集整理了我国大陆地区1966-2014年期间的175次震级在5.0级以上的地震事件,回归得到了震中烈度与震级和震源深度的统计经验关系。与以前的研究结果相比,所选取的基础数据数量更大,而且均是近50 a来的地震事件,地震参数信息更为准确和统一。研究结果可用来快速判定震中烈度的大小。     

青海玛多7.4级地震发震断裂继承性及新生性探讨

2021年5月22日青海省果洛州玛多县发生7.4级强烈地震,地表破裂发育,裂缝具断续分布特征,破裂带走向自中西段的NWW到东段转为EW,最终转为NEE向。然而,目前学术界对发震断裂有不同认识,区域地质资料显示,玛多—甘德断裂、昆仑山口—江措断裂均走向NW,倾向NE,但玛多7.4级地震地表破裂在空间位置上与玛多—甘德断裂,昆仑山口—江措断裂均不甚吻合,且地震震源机制解揭示发震断裂南倾,也与昆仑山口—江措的倾向相反,地表破裂表明发震断裂应属一条走向近EW、倾向南的未出露隐伏断裂。为进一步揭示玛多大地发震断裂特征及活动机制,在野外地质调查基础上,采用LiDAR扫描、InSAR解译、地质力学分析和数值模拟方法进行深入研究。结果表明,NW向断裂(玛多—甘德断裂、昆仑山口—江措断裂)在NEE—SWW向区域应力场作用下,在左旋错动过程中于瓶颈处受阻,在江措断裂北部产生应力集中带,东段因瓶颈部位受阻,产生近EW向的新生性地表破裂,出现鱼尾式地表破裂现象,发震断裂不是玛多—甘德断裂或昆仑山口—江措断裂,而是一条走向NNW,斜切昆仑山口—江措断裂小角度相交的隐伏断层。发震断裂走向上继承了既有断裂展布,研究...     

南黄海6.2级地震宏观烈度调查

<正> 南黄海6.2级地震是近六十年来上海遭受的最强地震波及,也是1932年以来南黄海海域发生的最大地震。震后一个月内,上海地震台网共记录到584次地震,震中密集在北纬32°18′—32°44′,东经121°28′—121°55′,长30公里,宽20公里,方向北60°东的椭圆形范围内。最大地震所释放的地震能量约占整个地震序列总释放能量的89％,b值(最大拟然法)为0.67,一个月内的地震衰减系数为1.23,反映该地震属主震余震型。下面主要介绍这次地震的宏观烈度分布。     

Cholera in Sudan: An account of an epidemic in a refugee camp in eastern Sudan, May-June 1985

In 1985 cholera has been a serious problem in the horn of Africa, particularly affecting the many famine victims and refugees in that region. In this paper the history of cholera in Africa is briefly summarized, as is the background to the current refugee situation in eastern Sudan. A cholera epidemic involving 1,175 cases in two adjacent refugee camps in eastern Sudan is described. In this epidemic there were thirteen inpatient deaths and thirty-eight known home deaths from cholera. The management of the epidemic is described in detail. Overall an average of 8 1. of intravenous fluid was used per case, a higher figure than was anticipated, probably because of the unexpected degree of vomiting and the shortage of trained nursing staff.
The relationship between cholera and malnutrition is explored and hypochlorhydria is suggested as the main reason for the increased susceptibility to cholera among malnourished populations. It was observed that severely malnourished adults and children appeared to nave less severe diarrhoea with their cholera, presumably because of reduced mucosal surface area and poor enterocyte function. Finally possible means of aborting cholera epidemics are discussed.     

A retrospective statistical review of deaths owing to migration through the southeasternmost land borders of the European Union,Greece 2000–14

The land borders of Evros, Greece, have been a common entry point for undocumented migrants on their way to Europe through Turkey. Adverse conditions, however, have resulted in many human casualties over the years. On the Greek side, 334 cadavers were retrieved between 2000 and 2014. This study provides a detailed forensic account of the humanitarian disaster in Evros to create an official scientific record of the situation. It showcases the gravity of the global issue of migration relating to health and mortality, and encourages communication and continual improvement of the approach and patterns of practices surrounding the subject. A retrospective statistical research review was conducted of border‐related fatalities between 2000 and 2014, assessing the age and gender of victims, the cause of death, the location of bodies, identification rates, and country of origin. Age ranged generally from 24 to 29 years, but infants and children were among the deceased.     

Complexity,continuity and change: livelihood resilience in the Darfur region of Sudan

Darfur farming and pastoralist livelihoods are both adaptations to the environmental variability that characterises the region. This article describes this adaptation and the longer‐term transformation of these specialised livelihoods from the perspective of local communities. Over several decades farmers and herders have experienced a continuous stream of climate, conflict and other shocks, which, combined with wider processes of change, have transformed livelihoods and undermined livelihood institutions. Their well‐rehearsed specialist strategies are now combined with new strategies to cope. These responses help people get by in the short term but risk antagonising not only their specialist strategies but also those of others. A combination of factors has undermined the former integration between farming and pastoralism and their livelihood institutions. Efforts to build resilience in similar contexts must take a long‐term view of livelihood adaptation as a specialisation, and consider the implications of new strategies for the continuity and integration of livelihood specialisations.     

The cultural politics of mining and natural disaster in Indonesia: by fire and sword

Natural disasters are inevitably the outcome of cultural agonisms. The cultural politics of natural disasters are shaped by competing claims and conceptions of ‘nature’. Recent disasters in Indonesia are directly linked to these contending conceptions and the ways in which different social groups imagine risk and reward. The Sidoarjo volcanic mudflow of 2006 represents a volatile and violent exemplar of contending cultural and economic claims. Like other disasters in Indonesia and elsewhere in the developing world, this ‘natural’ disaster is characterised by differing conceptions of ‘nature’ as cultural tradition, divine force, and natural resource. A new extractive project in East Java is exhibiting similar economic and cultural agonisms, particularly around the notion of development, environment, self‐determination, and tradition. This paper examines the ‘disputes over meaning’ associated with natural disasters in contemporary societies, and the ways in which they are related to human culture, social organisation, and hierarchical systems of violence.     

Reflections on 40 years of Disasters, 1977–2017

This reflection, based on a keynote address to celebrate the fortieth anniversary of Disasters on 14 September 2017, begins by considering some of the prevailing assumptions that existed at the time of the journal's creation. Next is a summary of significant milestones during the past 40 years, covering major global trends, changing disaster impacts, and key developments in disaster risk management. Contrasting approaches in the first and fourth decade of the journal's history are then followed by examples of changes in terminology in the disaster field as an indication of shifting values. The paper goes on to explore the context of 2017, with observations of problem areas such as the loss of knowledge, failures to tackle the root causes of disasters, shortfalls in international assistance, and some negative attitudes. It closes by evaluating some current positive occurrences, including a reduction in casualties, sharing of experience, technological advances, and dramatic improvements in disaster warning.     

Fiji, land of tropical cyclones and hurricanes: A case study of agricultural rehabilitation

Tropical cyclones and hurricanes have a severe impact on the social and economic activities of affected communities. For small island nations in the Pacific region, the effects can be devastating because of their smallness. FQi and several other countries in the region are vulnerable to such disasters as they are situated in the zone where cyclones occur frequently.
During the last decade, the frequency of natural disasters and their adverse impact on die economic and social development of small nations like Fiji, has aroused awareness mat relief efforts must go beyond immediate "mopping up" operations to those which contribute to attaining longer term benefits through reconstruction and rehabilitation.
The paper outlines the 1985 agricultural rehabilitation program and discusses related issues and problems.     

Risk communication in emergency response to a simulated extreme flood

Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties.     

Tsunami survivors' perspectives on vulnerability and vulnerability reduction: evidence from Koh Phi Phi Don and Khao Lak, Thailand

This paper presents the results of primary research with 40 survivors of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in two communities: Khao Lak (n=20) and Koh Phi Phi Don (n=20), Thailand. It traces tsunami survivors' perceptions of vulnerability, determines whether residents felt that the tsunami affected different communities differently, identifies the populations and sub-community groups that survivors distinguished as being more vulnerable than others, highlights community-generated ideas about vulnerability reduction, and pinpoints a range of additional vulnerability reduction actions. Tsunami survivors most consistently identified the 'most vulnerable' community sub-populations as women, children, the elderly, foreigners, and the poor. In Khao Lak, however, respondents added 'Burmese migrants' to this list, whereas in Koh Phi Phi Don, they added 'Thai Muslims'. Results suggest that the two case study communities, both small, coastal, tourism-dominated communities no more than 100 kilometres apart, have differing vulnerable sub-groups and environmental vulnerabilities, requiring different post-disaster vulnerability reduction efforts.     

The ethical contours of research in crisis settings: five practical considerations for academic institutional review boards and researchers

The number of research studies in the humanitarian field is rising. It is imperative, therefore, that institutional review boards (IRBs) consider carefully the additional risks present in crisis contexts to ensure that the highest ethical standards are upheld. Ethical guidelines should represent better the specific issues inherent to research among populations grappling with armed conflict, disasters triggered by natural hazards, or health‐related emergencies. This paper seeks to describe five issues particular to humanitarian settings that IRBs should deliberate and on which they should provide recommendations to overcome associated challenges: staged reviews of protocols in acute emergencies; flexible reviews of modification requests; addressing violence and the traumatic experiences of participants; difficulties in attaining meaningful informed consent among populations dependent on aid; and ensuring reviews are knowledgeable of populations' needs. Considering these matters when reviewing protocols will yield more ethically sound research in humanitarian settings and hold researchers accountable to appropriate ethical standards.