Climate Change, Elevational Range Shifts, and Bird Extinctions

Abstract:  Limitations imposed on species ranges by the climatic, ecological, and physiological effects of elevation are important determinants of extinction risk. We modeled the effects of elevational limits on the extinction risk of landbirds, 87% of all bird species. Elevational limitation of range size explained 97% of the variation in the probability of being in a World Conservation Union category of extinction risk. Our model that combined elevational ranges, four Millennium Assessment habitat-loss scenarios, and an intermediate estimate of surface warming of 2.8° C, projected a best guess of 400–550 landbird extinctions, and that approximately 2150 additional species would be at risk of extinction by 2100. For Western Hemisphere landbirds, intermediate extinction estimates based on climate-induced changes in actual distributions ranged from 1.3% (1.1° C warming) to 30.0% (6.4° C warming) of these species. Worldwide, every degree of warming projected a nonlinear increase in bird extinctions of about 100–500 species. Only 21% of the species predicted to become extinct in our scenarios are currently considered threatened with extinction. Different habitat-loss and surface-warming scenarios predicted substantially different futures for landbird species. To improve the precision of climate-induced extinction estimates, there is an urgent need for high-resolution measurements of shifts in the elevational ranges of species. Given the accelerating influence of climate change on species distributions and conservation, using elevational limits in a tested, standardized, and robust manner can improve conservation assessments of terrestrial species and will help identify species that are most vulnerable to global climate change. Our climate-induced extinction estimates are broadly similar to those of bird species at risk from other factors, but these estimates largely involve different sets of species.     

Not Knowing, Not Recording, Not Listing: Numerous Unnoticed Mollusk Extinctions

Abstract:  Mollusks are the group most affected by extinction according to the 2007 International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, despite the group having not been evaluated since 2000 and the quality of information for invertebrates being far lower than for vertebrates. Altogether 302 species and 11 subspecies are listed as extinct on the IUCN Red List. We reevaluated mollusk species listed as extinct through bibliographic research and consultation with experts. We found that the number of known mollusk extinctions is almost double that of the IUCN Red List. Marine habitats seem to have experienced few extinctions, which suggests that marine species may be less extinction prone than terrestrial and freshwater species. Some geographic and ecologic biases appeared. For instance, the majority of extinctions in freshwater occurred in the United States. More than 70% of known mollusk extinctions took place on oceanic islands, and a one-third of these extinctions may have been caused precipitously by introduction of the predatory snail Euglandina rosea. We suggest that assessment of the conservation status of invertebrate species is neglected in the IUCN Red List and not managed in the same way as for vertebrate species .     

Bird Extinctions in Atlantic Forest Fragments of the Viçosa Region, Southeastern Brazil

Abstract:   We studied the conservation status of Atlantic forest birds in 43 forest fragments ranging in size from 1 to 384 ha in the Viçosa region of southeastern Brazil. We compared data from 15 years of field work with historical records from the region, mainly originating from specimens collected by João Moojen during the 1930s. We used published studies associated with museum data and current field work to assess the decline of forest birds during the last 70 years and to relate their disappearance to forest fragmentation and destruction. At least 28 bird species have become locally extinct, 43 are critically endangered, and 25 are vulnerable, representing 60.7% of the original forest bird community known to exist in the region. Vulnerability to fragmentation differed among guilds, forest strata, and endemicity status. Birds that feed on fruit and seeds, and those that feed on insects, were more threatened than omnivores and carnivores. Nectarivorous species were less threatened than other guilds. Moreover, terrestrial and understory birds or birds using only one forest stratum also were more likely to have been threatened. Finally, Atlantic forest endemics were more likely to have become extinct than nonendemic species. In general, sensitivity to environmental disturbance at the local level was similar to the predicted vulnerability to regional disturbance derived from the literature. Our results indicate that a serious decline of Atlantic forest birds is underway and that many other species of birds, not previously recognized as threatened, are of conservation concern .     

Environmental Synergisms and Extinctions of Tropical Species

Abstract: Environmental synergisms may pose the greatest threat to tropical biodiversity. Using recently updated data sets from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, we evaluated the incidence of perceived threats to all known mammal, bird, and amphibian species in tropical forests. Vulnerable, endangered, and extinct species were collectively far more likely to be imperiled by combinations of threats than expected by chance. Among 45 possible pairwise combinations of 10 different threats, 69%, 93%, and 71% were significantly more frequent than expected for threatened mammals, birds, and amphibians, respectively, even with a stringent Bonferroni‐corrected probability value (p= 0.003). Based on this analysis, we identified five key environmental synergisms in the tropics and speculate on the existence of others. The most important involve interactions between habitat loss or alteration (from agriculture, urban sprawl, infrastructure, or logging) and other anthropogenic disturbances such as hunting, fire, exotic‐species invasions, or pollution. Climatic change and emerging pathogens also can interact with other threats. We assert that environmental synergisms are more likely the norm than the exception for threatened species and ecosystems, can vary markedly in nature among geographic regions and taxa, and may be exceedingly difficult to predict in terms of their ultimate impacts. The perils posed by environmental synergisms highlight the need for a precautionary approach to tropical biodiversity conservation.     

Testing Hypotheses of Bird Extinctions at Rio Palenque,Ecuador, with Informal Species Lists

Abstract: Informally gathered species lists are a potential source of data for conservation biology, but most remain unused because of questions of reliability and statistical issues. We applied two alternative analytical methods (contingency tests and occupancy modeling) to a 35‐year data set (1973–2007) to test hypotheses about local bird extinction. We compiled data from bird lists collected by expert amateurs and professional scientists in a 2‐km² fragment of lowland tropical forest in coastal Ecuador. We tested the effects of the following on local extinction: trophic level, sociality, foraging specialization, light tolerance, geographical range area, and biogeographic source. First we assessed extinction on the basis of the number of years in which a species was not detected on the site and used contingency tests with each factor to compare the frequency of expected and observed extinction events among different species categories. Then we defined four multiyear periods that reflected different stages of deforestation and isolation of the study site and used occupancy modeling to test extinction hypotheses singly and in combination. Both types of analyses supported the biogeographic source hypothesis and the species‐range hypothesis as causes of extinction; however, occupancy modeling indicated the model incorporating all factors except foraging specialization best fit the data.     

Consistent Ecological Selectivity through Time in Pacific Island Avian Extinctions

Abstract: Understanding the ecological mechanisms that lead to extinction is a central goal of conservation. Can understanding ancient avian extinctions help to predict extinction risk in modern birds? I used classification trees trained on both paleoecological and historical data from islands across the Pacific to determine the ecological traits associated with extinction risk. Intrinsic traits, including endemism, large body size, and certain feeding guilds, were tightly linked with avian extinction over the past 3500 years. Species ecology and phylogeny were better predictors of extinction risk through time than extrinsic or abiotic factors. Although human impacts on birds and their habitats have changed over time, modern endangered birds share many of the same ecological characteristics as victims of previous extinction waves. My use of detailed predictions of extinction risk to identify species potentially in need of conservation attention demonstrates the utility of paleoecological knowledge for modern conservation biology.     

Conservation resource allocation,small population resiliency,and the fallacy of conservation triage

Some conservation prioritization methods are based on the assumption that conservation needs overwhelm current resources and not all species can be conserved; therefore, a conservation triage scheme (i.e., when the system is overwhelmed, species should be divided into three groups based on likelihood of survival, and efforts should be focused on those species in the group with the best survival prospects and reduced or denied to those in the group with no survival prospects and to those in the group not needing special efforts for their conservation) is necessary to guide resource allocation. We argue that this decision-making strategy is not appropriate because resources are not as limited as often assumed, and it is not evident that there are species that cannot be conserved. Small population size alone, for example, does not doom a species to extinction; plants, reptiles, birds, and mammals offer examples. Although resources dedicated to conserving all threatened species are insufficient at present, the world's economic resources are vast, and greater resources could be dedicated toward species conservation. The political framework for species conservation has improved, with initiatives such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and other international agreements, funding mechanisms such as The Global Environment Facility, and the rise of many nongovernmental organizations with nimble, rapid-response small grants programs. For a prioritization system to allow no extinctions, zero extinctions must be an explicit goal of the system. Extinction is not inevitable, and should not be acceptable. A goal of no human-induced extinctions is imperative given the irreversibility of species loss.     

Considering extinction of dependent species during translocation, ex situ conservation, and assisted migration of threatened hosts

Translocation, introduction, reintroduction, and assisted migrations are species conservation strategies that are attracting increasing attention, especially in the face of climate change. However, preventing the extinction of the suite of dependent species whose host species are threatened is seldom considered, and the effects on dependent species of moving threatened hosts are unclear. There is no published guidance on how to decide whether to move species, given this uncertainty. We examined the dependent-host system of 4 disparate taxonomic groups: insects on the feather-leaf banksia (Banksia brownii), montane banksia (B. montana), and Stirling Range beard heath (Leucopogon gnaphalioides); parasites of wild cats; mites and ticks on Duvaucel's gecko (Hoplodactylus duvaucelii) and tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus); and internal coccidian parasites of Cirl Bunting (Emberiza cirlus) and Hihi (Notiomystis cincta). We used these case studies to demonstrate a simple process for use in species- and community-level assessments of efforts to conserve dependents with their hosts. The insects dependent on Stirling Range beard heath and parasites on tigers (Panthera tigris) appeared to represent assemblages that would not be conserved by ex situ host conservation. In contrast, for the cases of dependent species we examined involving a single dependent species (internal parasites of birds and the mite Geckobia naultina on Duvaucel's gecko), ex situ conservation of the host species would also conserve the dependent species. However, moving dependent species with their hosts may be insufficient to maintain viable populations of the dependent species, and additional conservation strategies such as supplementing populations may be needed.     

Adaptive Units for Conservation: Population Distinction and Historic Extinctions in the Island Scrub-Jay

Abstract:  The Island Scrub-Jay ( Aphelocoma insularis ) is found on Santa Cruz Island, California, and is the only insular bird species in the continental United States. We typed seven microsatellite loci and sequenced a portion of the mitochondrial DNA control region of Island Scrub-Jays and their closest mainland relative, the Western Scrub-Jay ( Aphelocoma californica ), to assess levels of variability and effective population size and to examine the evolutionary relationship between the two species. The estimated female effective population size, N _ef, of the Island Scrub-Jay was 1603 (90% confidence interval: 1481–1738) and was about 7.5% of the size of the mainland species. Island and Western Scrub-Jays have highly divergent control-region sequences, and the value of 3.14 ± 0.09% sequence divergence between the two species suggests a divergence time of approximately 151,000 years ago. Because the four northern Channel Islands were joined as one large island as recently as 11,000 years ago, extinctions must have occurred on the three other northern Channel islands, Santa Rosa, San Miguel, and Anacapa, highlighting the vulnerability of the remaining population. We assessed the evolutionary significance of four island endemics, including the Island Scrub-Jay, based on both genetic and adaptive divergence. Our results show that the Island Scrub-Jay is a distinct species of high conservation value whose history and adaptive potential is not well predicted by study of other island vertebrates.     

Insect herbivores, density dependence, and the performance of the perennial herb Solanum carolinense

How insect herbivores affect plant performance is of central importance to basic and applied ecology. A full understanding of herbivore effects on plant performance requires understanding interactions (if any) of herbivore effects with plant density and size because these interactions will be critical for determining how herbivores influence plant population size. However, few studies have considered these interactions, particularly over a wide enough range of densities to detect nonlinear effects. Here we ask whether plant density and herbivores influence plant performance linearly or nonlinearly, how plant density affects herbivore damage, and how herbivores alter density dependence in transitions between plant size classes. In a large field experiment, we manipulated the density of the herbaceous perennial plant Solanum carolinense and herbivore presence in a fully crossed design. We measured plant size, sexual reproduction, and damage to plants in two consecutive years, and asexual reproduction of new stems in the second year, allowing us to characterize both plant performance and rates of transition between plant size classes across years. We found nonlinear effects of plant density on damage. Damage by herbivores and plant density both influenced sexual and asexual reproduction of S. carolinense; these effects were mostly mediated via effects on plant size. Importantly, we found that herbivores altered the pattern of linear density dependence in some transition rates (including survival and asexual reproduction) between plant size classes. These results suggest that understanding the ecological or evolutionary effects of herbivores on plant populations requires consideration of plant density and plant size, because feedbacks between density, herbivores, and plant size may complicate longer-term dynamics.     

Regional IUCN Red Listing: the Process as Applied to Birds in the United Kingdom

Abstract:  The World Conservation Union (IUCN) has developed guidelines that enable the assessment of extinction risk at a regional scale. We used these guidelines to assess the extinction risk of birds in the United Kingdom for comparison with an existing assessment of conservation status. Sixty-four species were categorized as regionally threatened, of which 12 were critically endangered. The categorizations of the 223 species assessed agreed broadly with those from the existing U.K. system, which considers more than extinction risk, thus giving a more complete assessment of conservation status. There was, however, a tendency for the IUCN process to give higher risk status to edge-of-range species (some of which are relatively recent colonists considered of comparatively low conservation concern) and low status to those that have declined substantially but remain common (such as many farmland birds, the focus of considerable conservation effort in the United Kingdom). The final red list depended heavily on the subjective decisions made during the assessment process. An alternative interpretation of the guidelines could have resulted in as many as 19 or as few as 6 species being listed as critically endangered. We recommend the revision of the IUCN guidelines to reduce this subjectivity, in particular with respect to the effect of extralimital populations on the likelihood of regional extinction, and hence the potential for variation in the manner of application between regional red-list assessors. Preventing extinction does not have to be the principal driving force behind conservation action at a regional scale if the continuance of a species is safeguarded in other regions.     

The Silent Mass Extinction of Insect Herbivores in Biodiversity Hotspots

Abstract: Habitat loss is silently leading numerous insects to extinction. Conservation efforts, however, have not been designed specifically to protect these organisms, despite their ecological and evolutionary significance. On the basis of species–host area equations, parameterized with data from the literature and interviews with botanical experts, I estimated the number of specialized plant‐feeding insects (i.e., monophages) that live in 34 biodiversity hotspots and the number committed to extinction because of habitat loss. I estimated that 795,971–1,602,423 monophagous insect species live in biodiversity hotspots on 150,371 endemic plant species, which is 5.3–10.6 monophages per plant species. I calculated that 213,830–547,500 monophagous species are committed to extinction in biodiversity hotspots because of reduction of the geographic range size of their endemic hosts. I provided rankings of biodiversity hotspots on the basis of estimated richness of monophagous insects and on estimated number of extinctions of monophagous species. Extinction rates were predicted to be higher in biodiversity hotspots located along strong environmental gradients and on archipelagos, where high spatial turnover of monophagous species along the geographic distribution of their endemic plants is likely. The results strongly support the overall strategy of selecting priority conservation areas worldwide primarily on the basis of richness of endemic plants. To face the global decline of insect herbivores, one must expand the coverage of the network of protected areas and improve the richness of native plants on private lands.     

Parental investment, potential reproductive rates, and mating system in the strawberry dart-poison frog, Dendrobates pumilio

We studied the effect of relative parental investment on potential reproductive rates (PRRs) to explain sex differences in selectivity and competition in the dart-poison frog Dendrobates pumilio. We recorded the reproductive behavior of this species in a Costa Rican lowland rainforest for almost 6 months. Females spent more time on parental care than males, and `time out' estimates suggest that PRRs of males are much higher than than those of females, rendering females the limiting sex in the mating process. Males defended territories that provide suitable calling sites, space for courtship and oviposition, and prevent interference by competitors. Male mating success was highly variable, from 0 to 12 matings, and was significantly correlated with calling activity and average perch height, but was independent of body size and weight. Estimates of opportunity for sexual selection and variation in male mating success are given. The mating system is polygamous: males and females mated several times with different mates. Females were more selective than males and may sample males between matings. The discrepancy in PRRs between the sexes due to differences in parental investment and the prolonged breeding season is sufficient to explain the observed mating pattern i.e., selective females, high variance in male mating success, and the considerable opportunity for sexual selection. Received: 9 June 1998 / Received in revised form: 27 March 1999 / Accepted: 3 April 1999     

Modeling the impacts of calcite precipitation on the epilimnion of an ultraoligotrophic, hard-water lake

A mass-balance model of calcite precipitation was developed to investigate the interactions of the varied processes governing the generation and fate of calcite in lakes. The model was used in conjunction with data to assess the evolution and impact of calcite precipitation for calcareous, ultraoligotrophic Torch Lake, Michigan (USA). This lake is an ideal setting for implementation of a baseline modeling study of calcite precipitation where the physical drivers could be evaluated without being dominated, as in many systems, by biological processes. The model provides a representation of calcite precipitation with particulate surface area changing over time, and demonstrates that it is possible for the change in water clarity to be explained by calcite precipitation employing standard optical models. Using the mass balance model to quantify the roles of the various chemical, biological and physical processes interacting in the lake's epilimnion, it was shown that the seasonal temperature rise and air-water CO₂ exchange drive calcite precipitation much more than primary production for this ultraoligotrophic system.     

Ecology of<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Leptothorax</Emphasis> ants: impact of food,nest sites,and social parasites

In a long-term field manipulation, we demonstrate strong reactions of Leptothorax longispinosus ant colonies to food- and nest-site supplementation. Demographic and genetic responses varied over small geographic scales, and the two ecological factors interacted with the presence of the social parasite Protomognathus americanus. We conducted a 2×2 experiment in three blocks and found that the blocks, which were less than 100 m apart, reacted very differently to the treatments. Blocks differed in degree of polygyny, intranest relatedness, colony size, productivity, and sexual investment. Furthermore, these differences were associated with the presence of slave-making ants and the local availability of nest sites. Nest-site supplementation had a strong effect only in the site with the highest prevalence of social parasites, influencing there the density and investment patterns of colonies. L. longispinosus ants in the least parasitized area were strongly affected by both food- and nest-site supplementation. There, food supplementation led to a decrease in the number of queens per colony and consequently to an increase in intranest relatedness, while colonies in nest-site-supplemented areas invested fewer resources in males and produced a female-biased allocation ratio. By contrast, in a third block with a very low intracolonial relatedness, food supplementation induced an absolute and relative higher investment in males. We conclude that ecological factors influencing social organization in insect societies cannot be studied in isolation, because the interactions among factors produce far richer responses than any one variable.Communicated by L. Sundström     

Intraspecific Chromosome Number Variation: a Neglected Threat to the Conservation of Rare Plants

Abstract: The effectiveness of rare plant conservation will increase when life history, demographic, and genetic data are considered simultaneously. Inbreeding depression is a widely recognized genetic concern in rare plant conservation, and the mixing of genetically diverse populations in restoration efforts is a common remedy. Nevertheless, if populations with unrecognized intraspecific chromosome variation are crossed, progeny fitness losses will range from partial to complete sterility, and reintroductions and population augmentation of rare plants may fail. To assess the current state of cytological knowledge of threatened and endangered plants in the continental United States, we searched available resources for chromosome counts. We also reviewed recovery plans to discern whether recovery criteria potentially place listed species at risk by requiring reintroductions or population augmentation in the absence of cytological information. Over half the plants lacked a chromosome count, and when a taxon did have a count it generally originated from a sampling intensity too limited to detect intraspecific chromosome variation. Despite limited past cytological sampling, we found 11 plants with documented intraspecific cytological variation, while 8 others were ambiguous for intraspecific chromosome variation. Nevertheless, only one recovery plan addressed the chromosome differences. Inadequate within‐species cytological characterization, incomplete sampling among listed taxa, and the prevalence of interspecific and intraspecific chromosome variation in listed genera, suggests that other rare plants are likely to have intraspecific chromosome variation. Nearly 90% of all recovery plans called for reintroductions or population augmentation as part of recovery criteria despite the dearth of cytological knowledge. We recommend screening rare plants for intraspecific chromosome variation before reintroductions or population augmentation projects are undertaken to safeguard against inadvertent mixtures of incompatible cytotypes.     

A frontier model for landscape ecology: the tapir in Honduras

We borrow a frontier specification from the econometrics literature to make inferences about the tolerance of the tapir to human settlements. We estimate the width of an invisible band surrounding human settlements which would act as a frontier or exclusion zone to the tapir to be around 290 metres.     

Replacement males in the western bluebird: opportunity for paternity, chick-feeding rules, and fitness consequences of male parental care

In western bluebirds (Sialia mexicana), most pairs remain together for life and share equally in post-hatching parental care. We removed resident males of socially monogamous pairs during laying and after clutch completion to examine chick-feeding rules used by replacement males and current and future fitness consequences of paternal care. Replacement males were not infanticidal and 7 (47%) fed nestlings. Feeding replacement males and the females they joined fed at rates similar to controls. Females without a feeding replacement male compensated by feeding more themselves so that overall feeding rates were not compromised, but they reduced their brooding time. Unlike assisted females, unassisted females exhibited reduced nesting success and their 14-day-old chicks weighed less than controls. Field metabolic rates of unassisted females were 17% higher than those of control females, but the difference was not statistically significant. Older females were better able to raise young without the male's help than were yearling females. Female condition was not affected by male provisioning and unassisted females were as likely to survive to the next breeding season as assisted females. We found no future benefits of provisioning by replacement males; those that fed were no more likely to breed with the female on her subsequent attempt than were males that did not feed, and subsequent clutch sizes were not reduced for females rearing young without the male's help. These experiments suggest that male parental care increases nesting success in western bluebirds and that replacement males use an all-or-none rule to determine whether or not to feed chicks: if they are present during the fertile period they feed at typical rates; if they are not, they usually do not feed at all. Because chick-feeding by males is tied to opportunity for paternity, influences success in the current nest, and does not affect the male's future breeding success, it appears to be parental rather than mating effort. Received: 8 May 1998 / Accepted after revision: 23 July 1998     

Quantifying Rarity, Losses, and Risks for Native Fishes of the Lower Colorado River Basin: Implications for Conservation Listing

Abstract:  We examined spatial distributions of fishes native to the lower basin of the Colorado River (25 species) at three scales to determine percent decline from historical distributions based on a regional biodiversity database. We cumulated records from 1843 to 1980 to develop a "historical distribution" for each species and used those occurrences recorded from 1981 to 1998 as "modern" records. We then contrasted historical and modern distributions to (1) quantify losses in spatial distribution; (2) determine how strongly these losses and fragmentation patterns corresponded to the perceived risk of extinction of each species, as represented by its status under the IUCN Red List of Endangered Species; and (3) update extinction risk rankings for 15 fishes endemic to the lower Colorado Basin according to the IUCN criteria. Based on presence and absence data, fish fauna of the lower Colorado Basin have suffered massive distributional losses. On average, ranges of extant species have diminished more than 45% relative to their historical distribution, and 35% of species have lost 50% or more of their occurrences. We provide nine new IUCN rankings and six updates to reflect more accurately the heightened imperilment of these species. Based on our new rankings, 7 of the 15 lower Colorado Basin endemics are critically endangered, 1 is endangered, 2 are vulnerable, and 1 is already extinct. We categorize the remaining 2 endemics as lower risk. This work demonstrates the utility of matching quantitative spatial metrics such as the scale-area slope statistic to extinction risk criteria for species whose persistence is strongly influenced by spatial distribution.