DATA REQUIREMENTS OF A WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT PROGRAM1

ABSTRACT: Routine data collection currently consumes a large amount of the total resources devoted to water quality management. All too often data collection becomes an end in itself, with little thought given to the purpose of the data collection. The problem generally stems from a lack of proper routine surveillance system design and a failure on the part of the designers to initially identify the data needs of the management program. This study attempts, in a general way, to delineate the data needs of a water quality management program. This first required an identification of the activities involved in water quality management. The activities were then discussed in terms of the types of information needed to successfully complete their assigned tasks. Several detailed examples are given. The results of the discussion are summarized and several strategies are proposed to relate the results to surveillance system design.     

REAL-TIME QUALITY CONTROL OF STREAMFLOW DATA—A SIMULATION STUDY1

ABSTRACT: The problem of real-time quality control of streamflow data is addressed. Five methods are investigated via a Monte-Carlo simulation experiment based on streamflow data from Bird Creek basin in Oklahoma. The five methods include three deterministic approaches and two statistical approaches. The relative performance of the investigated methods is evaluated under hypothesized random mechanism generating isolated outliers. The deterministic method based on streamflow gradient analysis and the statistical method based on forecast residual analysis perform best in detecting such outliers.     

DOWNSCALED CLIMATE AND STREAMFLOW STUDY OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Downscaling coarse resolution climate data to scales that are useful for impact assessment studies is receiving increased attention. Basin-scale hydrologic processes and other local climate impacts related to water resources such as reservoir management, crop and forest productivity, and ecosystem response require climate information at scales that are much finer than current and future GCM resolutions. The Regional Climate System Model (RCSM) is a dynamic downscaling system that has been used since 1994 for short-term precipitation and streamflow predictions and seasonal hindcast analysis with good skill. During the 1997–1998 winter, experimental seasonal forecasts were made in collaboration with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center and UCLA with promising results. Preliminary studies of a control and 2°CO₂ perturbation for the southwestern U.S. have been performed.     

SYNTHESIS OF DATA FROM STUDIES BY THE NATIONAL IRRIGATION WATER-QUALITY PROGRAM1

ABSTRACT: From 1986 to 1993, the National Irrigation Water-Quality Program (NIWQP) of the U.S. Department of the Interior studied whether contamination was induced by irrigation drainage in 26 areas of the Western United States. In 1992, a study to evaluate and synthesize data collected during these 26 investigations began. Selenium, boron, and molybdenum are the trace elements and DDT the pesticide most commonly found in surface water at concentrations exceeding chronic criteria for the protection of aquatic life. In six of the areas, the median selenium concentration exceeded the criterion. Aquatic-life criteria have not been developed for uranium, but the median uranium concentration exceeded the proposed Maximum Contaminant Level for drinking water in seven areas. A principal components analysis indicates that severity of selenium contamination is not related to the severity of contamination by boron, molybdenum, and arsenic. Arsenic, boron, molybdenum, and selenium concentrations are nearly the same in both filtered and unfiltered samples, which indicates that contaminant concentrations in filtered samples can be directly compared with biological-effects data developed using unfiltered samples. At a given site, selenium concentrations in surface water can change by an order of magnitude during the course of a year and from one year to another.     

EVALUATION OF THE WORTH OF ADDITIONAL DATA1

ABSTRACT .Inherent in every decision process is a certain amount of uncertainty, which is reduced with information. Perfect knowledge yields no uncertainty for a process, but perfect knowledge for hydrologic and water resource systems would require a highly excessive investment. Therefore, it is the aim of this paper to delineate a procedure that places a value on this uncertainty so that it may be compared to a cost of further investment, which would provide a basis for deciding the time at which the value of additional data does not exceed the cost of that data. A decision theory approach is employed on a hydrologic problem to formalize the steps in making a decision. Examples are given.     

SIMULATION OF THE EFFECTS OF URBANIZATION ON BASIN STREAMFLOW1

ABSTRACT: The hydrologic modeling of streamflow in the Waterford River Basin has been conducted as part of comprehensive investigations of the effects of urbanization on water resources in the basin. Using a detailed input data base, continuous simulation of streamflow in the study area has been done by means of the HSPF model, which has been calibrated for the existing conditions and then applied to several future land use scenarios. The basin climate and geology contribute to high conversion of precipitation into streamflow under the existing conditions. Consequently, future urban development in the study basin should not increase the annual streamflow, but would contribute to increases in peak flows and the incidence of flooding because of the increased speed of runoff. If the impervious area in the basin is doubled, the peak flows may increase by about 20 percent.     

THE VALUE OF STREAMFLOW FORECASTING IN RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: The value of streamflow forecasts in reservoir operation depends on a number of factors and may vary considerably. Assessment of forecast benefits is presented here for three specific systems. Statistical streamflow models of increasing forecasting ability are coupled with a recently developed stochastic control method in extensive simulation experiments. The performance of the system is statisticafly evaluated with regard to energy generation and flood and drought prevention. The results indicate that forecast benefits are system specific and may range from quite substantial to fairly minimal.     

THE INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE VARIATION ON THE ESTIMATION OF LOW FLOWS USED TO PROTECT WATER QUALITY: A NATIONWIDE ASSESSMENT1

ABSTRACT: Historical flow records are used to estimate the regulatory low flows that serve a key function in setting discharge permit limits through the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System, which provides a nationwide mechanism for protecting water quality. Use of historical records creates an implicit connection between water quality protection and climate variability. The longer the record, the more likely the low flow estimate will be based on a broad set of climate conditions, and thus provides adequate water quality protection in the future. Unfortunately, a long record often is not available at a specific location. This analysis examines the connection between climate variability and the variability of biologically based and hydrologically based low flow estimates at 176 sites from the Hydro‐Climatic Data Network, a collection of stream gages identified by the USGS as relatively free of anthropogenic influences. Results show that a record of 10 to 20 years is necessary for satisfactory estimates of regulatory low flows. Although it is possible to estimate a biologically based low flow from a record of less than 10 years, these estimates are highly uncertain and incorporate a bias that undermines water quality protection.     

DEVELOPMENT OF EARTH SATELLITE TECHNOLOGY FOR THE TELEMETRY OF HYDROLOGIC DATA1

ABSTRACT The use of satellite telemetry is playing a major role in the collection of hydrologic data. Advancing technology and availability of government satellites have permitted many agencies to take advantage of new procedures for acquiring data from automated remote data collection stations. Experiments with Earth satellite technology started in the 1960's and 1970's, with the polar-orbiting National Aeronautics and Space Administration Nimbus and Landsat satellites. Subsequent advancements took place through the development phase to operational systems using the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. This satellite system supports more than 2,500 active telemetry sites, of which approximately 1,200 are Geological Survey stream-gaging stations for the collection of hydrologic data. A satellite data collection system is made up of three primary components; a small battery-operated radio, and Earth-orbiting satellite, and an Earth receive and data processing station. The data relay satellites' vast aerial view of the Earth's surface gives satellite telemetry a large advantage over ground-based systems for the collection of real-time hydrologic data for flood warning, reservoir management, irrigation water control, hydropower generation, and the operation of hydrologic stations.     

STREAMFLOW CHARACTERISTICS OF SMALL WATERSHEDS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON1

ABSTRACT: Streamflow data for water years 1978–84 were evaluated to identify streamflow characteristics for 13 small watersheds (0.46–7.00 mi²) in the Blue Mountains of eastern Oregon and to determine differences among grazing intensities and vegetation types. The ranges for mean annual water yields, peak flows, and 7-day low flows for the 13 watersheds were 5.5–28.1 inches, 2.0–34.7 cfsm, and 0.006–0.165 cfsm, respectively. Two classes of vegetation were evaluated: (1) western larch-Douglas-fir (nine watersheds) and (2) other (four watersheds representing fir-spruce, lodgepole pine, ponderosa pine, and mountain meadow). The means for annual peak flows and the slopes of the flow.duration curve were significantly different (p=0.05) for the two vegetation classes; differences in mean annual water yield were marginallysignificant(0.05< p <0.10). After they were adjusted for precipitation, the means for annual water yield, peak flows, and slopes of the flow-duration curve were significantly different for the two vegetation classes; differences in the means for annual 7-day low flows were marginally significant. The western larch-Douglas-fir group had somewhat lower water yields but, overall, tended to have more favorable streamfiow characteristics including lower peak flows, higher low flows, and more evenly distributed flow regimes (flatter flow-duration curves) than the “other” class. Four levels of grazing intensity had no effect on streamilow characteristics.     

THE SENSITWITY OF NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA STREAMFLOW TO CLIMATE CHANGE1

ABSTRACT: The sensitivity of streamflow to climate change was investigated in the American, Carson, and Truckee River Basins, California and Nevada. Nine gaging stations were used to represent streamflow in the basins. Annual models were developed by regressing 1961–1991 streamflow data on temperature and precipitation. Climate-change scenarios were used as inputs to the models to determine streamflow sensitivities. Climate-change scenarios were generated from historical time series by modifying mean temperatures by a range of +4°C to—4°C and total precipitation by a range of +25 percent to -25 percent. Results show that streamflow on the warmer, lower west side of the Sierra Nevada generally is more sensitive to temperature and precipitation changes than is streamflow on the colder, higher east side. A 2°C rise in temperature and a 25-percent decrease in precipitation results in stream-flow decreases of 56 percent on the American River and 25 percent on the Carson River. A 2°C decline in temperature and a 25-percent increase in precipitation results in streamflow increases of 102 percent on the American River and 22 percent on the Carson River.     

CONSUMPTIVE USE OF STREAMFLOW INCREASES IN THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: This study examined the disposition of streamflow increases that could be created by vegetation management on forest land along the upper reaches of the Colorado River. A network optimization model was used to simulate water flow, storage, consumptive use, and loss within the entire Colorado River Basin with and without the flow increases, according to various scenarios incorporating both current and future consumptive use levels as well as existing and potential institutional constraints. Results indicate that very little of the flow increases would be consumptively used at current use levels, or even at future use levels, if water allocation institutions remain unchanged. Given future use levels and economically based water allocation institutions, up to one-half of the flow increases could be consumptively used. The timing of streamflow increases, and the institutional constraints on water allocation, often limit the potential for consumptive use of flow increases.     

ASSESSING THE DIRECT EFFECTS OF STREAMFLOW ON RECREATION: A LITERATURE REVIEW1

ABSTRACT: A variety of methods have been used to learn about the relation between streamfiow and recreation quality. Regardless of method, nearly all studies found a similar nonlinear relation of recreation to flow, with quality increasing with flow to a point, and then decreasing for further increases in flow. Points of minimum, optimum, and maximum flow differ across rivers and activities. Knowledge of the effects of streamflow on recreation, for the variety of relevant activities and skill levels, is an important ingredient in the determination of wise streamflow policies.     

STREAMFLOW OF THE OCCOQUAN RIVER IN VIRGINIA AS RECONSTRUCTED FROM TREE-RING SERIES1

ABSTRACT Tree-ring indices representing seven sites were used to reconstruct monthly summer streamflow in the Occoquan River basin of northern Virginia from 1841 to 1975. Attempts were made to reconstruct flow for each of the months, April through August. Reconstructions for June, July, and August were judged most reliable. Major mid-summer flow minima persisting for more than one year were reconstructed as having occurred in the early 1870's, the early 1930's, and the mid-1960's. Aside from these major dry periods, a greater frequency of extreme low flow during individual years is indicated for the entire record than for the most recent 50 years.     

ANALYSIS OF STREAMFLOW TRENDS AND THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE IN PENNSYLVANIA, 1971 TO 20011

An understanding of temporal trends in total stream‐flow (TSF), base flow (BF), and storm runoff (RO) can help in the development of water management plans for watersheds and local communities. In this study, 47 streams across Pennsylvania that were unregulated and unaffected by karst environments or coal mining were studied for flow trends and their relationships to selected climate parameters for the period 1971 to 2001. LOWESS curves for annual flow showed that almost all of the selected streams in Pennsylvania had downward trends in total TSF, BF, and RO. Using a seasonal Mann‐Kendall analysis, downward trends were significant at an α= 0.05 level for 68, percent 70 percent, and 62 percent of the streams and at an α= 0.10 level for another 19, 17, and 13 percent of the streams for TSF, BF, and RO, respectively. The ratio of BF to TSF (RBS) had significant upward trends for 34 percent of the streams at an α= 0.05 level and for another 9 percent of the streams at an α= 0.10 level, indicating that TSF decreased relative to BF for more than 40 percent of the streams during the previous 30 years. Downward trends in TSF, BF, and RO were most common for the months of June, July, and December. Trend analyses using monthly and annual total precipitation and mean temperature showed some association between climate and the streamflow trends, but Spearman's correlation and partial Mann‐Kendall analyses revealed that the trends in TSF, BF, and RO could not be explained by trends in precipitation and temperature alone, and thus urbanization and development may have played a role.     

QUALITY OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA IN COLD REGIONS1

ABSTRACT: Many users of hydrometeorological records are not aware of the number of inconsistencies and biases that occur in hydrometeorological records. Examples are presented illustrating how the exposures of sites for measurement of precipitation, wind, snow on the ground, and evaporation determine to a large extent how useful the records are for estimating areal conditions. For areas where precipitation in the form of snow produces a significant portion of the runoff, a smaller number of quality records may be more valuable for modeling than a much larger number of records of lower quality. Information is presented to show that the overall value of an operational hydrometeorological network is dependent upon how consistent and representative of average conditions the collected records are, especially for mountainous areas in cold regions.     

USE OF STREAMFLOW INCREASES FROM VEGETATION MANAGEMENT IN THE VERDE RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Although the effects of vegetation management on streamflow have been studied in many locations, the effects of augmented streamflow on downstream water users have not been carefully analyzed. This study examines the routing of streamflow increases that could be produced in the Verde River Basin of Arizona. Reservoir management and water routing to users in the Salt River Valley around Phoenix were carefully modeled. Simulation of water routing with and without vegetation modification indicates that, under current institutional conditions, less than one-half of the streamflow increase would reach consumptive users as surface water. Most of the remainder would accumulate in storage until a year of unusually heavy runoff, when it would add to reservoir spills. Under alternative scenarios, from 39 to 58 percent of the streamflow increase was delivered to consumptive users.     

A TREE‐RING RECONSTRUCTION OF STREAMFLOW FOR THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE1

ABSTRACT: Water resource planning is based primarily on 20th century instrumental records of climate and streamflow. These records are limited in length to approximately 100 years, in the best cases, and can reflect only a portion of the range of natural variability. The instrumental record neither can be used to gage the unusualness of 20th Century extreme low flow events, nor does it allow the detection of low‐frequency variability that may underlie short‐term variations in flow. In this study, tree rings are used to reconstruct mean annual streamflow for Middle Boulder Creek in the Colorado Front Range, a semi‐arid region of rapid growth and development. The reconstruction is based on a stepwise regression equation that accounts for 70 percent of the variance in the instrumental record, and extends from 1703–1987. The reconstruction suggests that the instrumental record of streamflow for Middle Boulder Creek is not representative of flow in past centuries and that several low flow events in the 19th century were more persistent than any in the 20th century. The 1840s to early 1850s period of low flow is a particularly notable event and may have coincided with a period of low flow in the Upper Colorado River Basin.     

A PROBABILISTIC BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS OF A ZONING PROGRAM FOR FLOOD PLAINS1

ABSTRACT: Various techniques, one of which is zoning, are used to control the extent of flood damage. The benefit-cost analysis of zoning programs must take into account the random nature of flooding. This paper outlines a method for determining not only the expected value of the benefit-cost ratio, but also the probability of such a zoning program being profitable. It also presents an application of the method to the assessment of the Outaouais Regional Community zoning program.