流域排污权初始分配模型构建及应用研究——以淮河流域为例

流域排污权初始分配受环境现状、经济发展、社会公平、科技水平等多种因素的影响,将各因素细化成污染物入河排放量、河段长度、人均GDP、地区开发指数、非农人口比例、贫困地区倾斜指数、人口总量、出境断面水质达标率等指标,通过层次分析法确定指标权重,建立了流域排污权初始分配的综合模型。以淮河流域限排总量(COD、氨氮)为目标总量,以流域内各行政单元为主体,进行了初始分配模型的应用。在淮河流域排污权初始分配中环境现状、经济发展因素权重较大,而社会公平、科技水平权重较小。模型的分配结果既弥补了以往分配模型中片面强调某些原则的缺点,具有综合全面的特点,又通过指标权重的方式区分了影响大小不同因素的作用差异。     

四川省饮水总放射性水平与评价

本文报告了四川省5种饮用水总放射性的监测结果,发现各类饮用水之间总放射性比活度检出结果差异较大。经处理的出厂自来水相对较低,地下水较高。90个自来水样总α检出合格率为96％,总β合格率为100％。对总α超值水样建议进行核素^226Ra检测,而且^226Ra的含量不应超过总α限值。     

Comparison of the Performance of Statistical Models in Forecasting Monthly Total Dissolved Solids in the Rio Grande1

Abudu, S., J.P. King, Z. Sheng, 2011. Comparison of the Performance of Statistical Models in Forecasting Monthly Total Dissolved Solids in the Rio Grande. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 10‐23. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00587.x Abstract: This paper presents the application of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), transfer function‐noise (TFN), and artificial neural networks (ANNs) modeling approaches in forecasting monthly total dissolved solids (TDS) of water in the Rio Grande at El Paso, Texas. Predictability analysis was performed between the precipitation, temperature, streamflow rates at the site, releases from upstream reservoirs, and monthly TDS using cross‐correlation statistical tests. The chi‐square test results indicated that the average monthly temperature and precipitation did not show significant predictability on monthly TDS series. The performances of one‐ to three‐month‐ahead model forecasts for the testing period of 1984‐1994 showed that the TFN model that incorporated the streamflow rates at the site and Caballo Reservoir release improved monthly TDS forecasts slightly better than the ARIMA models. Except for one‐month‐ahead forecasts, the ANN models using the streamflow rates at the site as inputs resulted in no significant improvements over the TFN models at two‐month‐ahead and three‐month‐ahead forecasts. For three‐month‐ahead forecasts, the simple ARIMA showed similar performance compared to all other models. The results of this study suggested that simple deseasonalized ARIMA models could be used in one‐ to three‐month‐ahead TDS forecasting at the study site with a simple, explicit model structure and similar model performance as the TFN and ANN models for better water management in the Basin.     

多元回归和BP人工神经网络模型对混合厌氧消化产气量的预测研究

在中温且控制pH值条件下,对脂肪类单基质和城市污水厂剩余污泥进行混合厌氧消化试验。基于多元回归原理和BP人工神经网络原理,对其建立产气量预测模型。由实验数据计算得出:两个阶段多元回归模型的预测平均准确率分别为75.69%和79.29%;BP神经网络模型的预测平均准确率为79.05%。通过对比两种模型的预测结果可知,两种模型都有较高的预测准确率,但BP模型的预测准确率更高,更适用于混合厌氧消化产气量预测。     

树脂固定床吸附含酚废水预测模型研究

针对应用于实际工业化的树脂固定床吸附研究较少,而与之相关的固定床吸附穿透曲线可以用来确定固定床吸附操作参数,为固定床的设计和实际操作提供指导。通过对恒定波振荡理论和吸附等温方程的联合,来预测固定床吸附穿透曲线;并研究了不同操作条件对大孔弱碱树脂吸附对硝基酚穿透曲线预测模型的影响。以期望为树脂固定床的设计和实际工业应用产生指导意义。     

尖点突变模型在环境领域中的应用研究

突变理论是一种利用动态系统的拓扑理论来构造自然现象与社会活动中不连续变化现象的数学模型,其为现实世界中的突变现象提供了可利用的数学框架和工具。本文通过利用尖点突变模型来研究某省环境保护投资额的突变现象,得出环保投资额的突变条件,并推测出投资额突变背后的深层诱因。     

模型预测在土地利用规划中的应用

阐述了4种预测模型的原理，并以新疆喀什市的城市用地预测为例，通过时间序列建立了4种预测模型，对城市用地实际值进行预测与分析，从而得出各种模型的特点。认为只有选择最适合的预测模型，才能为土地利用规划提供科学依据。     

水驱气藏污水回注能力评价与指标预测

为避免水驱气藏产出污水排海而引起海洋污染问题,开展了水驱气藏回注能力评价技术研究:以物质平衡为基础,确定不同气水界面和饱和度分布下的可注入总量;建立井筒管流模型,确定不同注入量下的摩擦阻力、井底流压,预测注入泵压的变化趋势;提出了回注指标优化图版,可快速优化回注井的瞬时注入量。研究成果已初步应用于靶区首次污水回注试验,单井日注水规模达100~250 m³,回注总量为1.06×10⁴ m³,有效避免了地区的环境污染问题。     

Evaluation of the Temporal Transferability of a Model Describing Dissolved Solids in Streams of the Upper Colorado River Basin1

Kenney, Terry A. and Susan G. Buto, 2012. Evaluation of the Temporal Transferability of a Model Describing Dissolved Solids in Streams of the Upper Colorado River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(5): 1041‐1053. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00667.x Abstract: The application of a nonlinear least‐squares regression model describing the sources and transport of dissolved solids in streams of the Upper Colorado River Basin, and that was calibrated using data from water year 1991, was evaluated for use in predicting annual dissolved‐solids loads for the years 1974 through 1998. Simulations for each water year were run using annual climate data. To evaluate how well the model captures the observed annual variability across the basin, differences in predicted annual dissolved‐solids loads for each simulated year and 1991 were compared with differences in monitored annual loads. The temporal trend of the differences between predicted annual loads for the simulated years and the load for 1991 generally followed the trend of the monitored loads. The model appears to underpredict the largest annual loads and overpredict some of the smaller annual loads. An underprediction bias for wetter years was evident in the residuals as was an overprediction bias, to a lesser degree, for drier years. A regression analysis on the residuals suggests that the underprediction bias is associated with precipitation differences from 1991 and with previously defined downward trends in dissolved‐solids concentrations in the basin. In general, given the representative climatic conditions, the model adequately performs throughout the period examined. However, the model is most transferable to years with climatic conditions similar to 1991.     

湖泊沉积物中磷的形态分析及其释放研究

本文讨论了湖泊沉积物中磷的各种存在形态，包括：可交换性溶解磷（Pa-t），可溶性磷（Psol），经结合态磷（Pu），铁结合态磷（PFc），以及闭态磷（O-P），另外，还有部份有机磷（Porg），利用分级提取技术，□□□□□□氧）对湖水复磷影响显著，主要是释放PAf和PFc。     

上覆水营养盐浓度对底泥氮磷释放的影响

采用校园水体底泥进行上覆水营养盐浓度对底泥释放量之间的关系研究。结果表明,在本实验条件下,上覆水水质影响底泥氮、磷的释放,尤其显著影响氮、磷的初期释放;上覆水氮、磷的浓度越小,底泥氮、磷的释放量越大;上覆水氮、磷的浓度超过一定值,会抑制底泥氮、磷的释放。