Future Nutrient Load Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Due to Climate and Lifestyle Changes

Dynamic model simulations of the future climate and projections of future lifestyles within the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB) were considered in this study to estimate potential trends in future nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads were estimated using a simple proxy based only on human population (to account for nutrient sources) and stream discharges (to account for nutrient transport). This population-discharge proxy provided a good estimate for nutrient loads across the seven sub-basins of the BSDB considered. All climate scenarios considered here produced increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea over the next 100 years. There was variation between the climate scenarios such that sub-basin and regional differences were seen in future nutrient runoff depending on the climate model and scenario considered. Regardless, the results of this study indicate that changes in lifestyle brought about through shifts in consumption and population potentially overshadow the climate effects on future nutrient runoff for the entire BSDB. Regionally, however, lifestyle changes appear relatively more important in the southern regions of the BSDB while climatic changes appear more important in the northern regions with regards to future increases in nutrient loads. From a whole-ecosystem management perspective of the BSDB, this implies that implementation of improved and targeted management practices can still bring about improved conditions in the Baltic Sea in the face of a warmer and wetter future climate.     

Extremes of Temperature, Oxygen and Blooms in the Baltic Sea in a Changing Climate

In the future, the Baltic Sea ecosystem will be impacted both by climate change and by riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs. Multi-model ensemble simulations comprising one IPCC scenario (A1B), two global climate models, two regional climate models, and three Baltic Sea ecosystem models were performed to elucidate the combined effect of climate change and changes in nutrient inputs. This study focuses on the occurrence of extreme events in the projected future climate. Results suggest that the number of days favoring cyanobacteria blooms could increase, anoxic events may become more frequent and last longer, and salinity may tend to decrease. Nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan can reduce the deterioration of oxygen conditions.     

Climate Change Impact on Riverine Nutrient Load and Land-Based Remedial Measures of the Baltic Sea Action Plan

To reduce eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, all nine surrounding countries have agreed upon reduction targets in the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). Yet, monitoring sites and model concepts for decision support are few. To provide one more tool for analysis of water and nutrient fluxes in the Baltic Sea basin, the HYPE model has been applied to the region (called Balt-HYPE). It was used here for experimenting with land-based remedial measures and future climate projections to quantify the impacts of these on water and nutrient loads to the sea. The results suggest that there is a possibility to reach the BSAP nutrient reduction targets by 2100, and that climate change may both aggravate and help in some aspects. Uncertainties in the model results are large, mainly due to the spread of the climate model projections, but also due to the hydrological model.     

Climate Warming and Pikeperch Year-Class Catches in the Baltic Sea

Climate change scenarios concerning the Baltic Sea predict increase in surface water temperatures. Pikeperch (Sander lucioperca (L.)) inhabits the coastal areas of the northern Baltic Sea and is an important fish species for the Finnish fisheries. The year-class strength of pikeperch varies strongly between years and significantly depends on water temperature. We aimed to study the effects of changing temperature conditions on pikeperch fisheries and distribution based on commercial catch data from the period 1980–2008 in the Finnish coastal areas of the Baltic Sea. The results indicated that warmer summers will produce stronger pikeperch year-classes that consequently contribute significantly to the future catches. The average temperature in June–July explained 40% of the variation in the year-class catches in the Gulf of Finland and 73% in July–August in the Archipelago Sea. During the study period, the distribution of pikeperch catches expanded toward north along the coasts of the Bothnian Sea.     

Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management

We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960–2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission.     

Echoes from the Past: A Healthy Baltic Sea Requires More Effort

Integrated sediment multiproxy studies and modeling were used to reconstruct past changes in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Results of natural changes over the past 6000 years in the Baltic Sea ecosystem suggest that forecasted climate warming might enhance environmental problems of the Baltic Sea. Integrated modeling and sediment proxy studies reveal increased sea surface temperatures and expanded seafloor anoxia (in deep basins) during earlier natural warm climate phases, such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Under future IPCC scenarios of global warming, there is likely no improvement of bottom water conditions in the Baltic Sea. Thus, the measures already designed to produce a healthier Baltic Sea are insufficient in the long term. The interactions between climate change and anthropogenic impacts on the Baltic Sea should be considered in management, implementation of policy strategies in the Baltic Sea environmental issues, and adaptation to future climate change.     

Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region: A Cross-Country Analysis of Institutional Stakeholder Perceptions

Before climate change is considered in long-term coastal management, it is necessary to investigate how institutional stakeholders in coastal management conceptualize climate change, as their awareness will ultimately affect their actions. Using questionnaires in eight Baltic Sea riparian countries, this study examines environmental managers' awareness of climate change. Our results indicate that problems related to global warming are deemed secondary to short-term social and economic issues. Respondents agree that problems caused by global warming will become increasingly important, but pay little attention to adaptation and mitigation strategies. Current environmental problems are expected to continue to be urgent in the future. We conclude that an apparent gap exists between decision making, public concerns, and scientific consensus, resulting in a situation in which the latest evidence rarely influences commonly held opinions.     

Atmospheric Nutrient Input to the Baltic Sea from 1850 to 2006: A Reconstruction from Modeling Results and Historical Data

In this study, a consistent basin-wise monthly time series of the atmospheric nutrient load to the Baltic Sea during 1850-2006 was compiled. Due to the lack of a long time series (1850-1960) of nutrient deposition to the Baltic Sea, the data set was compiled by combining a time series of deposition data at the Baltic Nest Institute from 1970 to 2006, published historical monitoring data and deposition estimates, as well as recent modeled Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission estimates. The procedure for nitrogen compounds included estimation of the deposition in a few intermediate reference years, linear interpolation between them, and the decomposition of annual deposition into a seasonal deposition pattern. As no reliable monitoring results were found for the atmospheric deposition of phosphorus during the early period of our study, we used published estimates for the temporal and spatial pattern of the phosphorus load.     

Climate Change and Agricultural Development: Adapting Polish Agriculture to Reduce Future Nutrient Loads in a Coastal Watershed

Currently, there is a major concern about the future of nutrient loads discharged into the Baltic Sea from Polish rivers because they are main contributors to its eutrophication. To date, no watershed-scale studies have properly addressed this issue. This paper fills this gap by using a scenario-modeling framework applied in the Reda watershed, a small (482 km²) agricultural coastal area in northern Poland. We used the SWAT model to quantify the effects of future climate, land cover, and management changes under multiple scenarios up to the 2050s. The combined effect of climate and land use change on N-NO₃ and P-PO₄ loads is an increase by 20–60 and 24–31 %, respectively, depending on the intensity of future agricultural usage. Using a scenario that assumes a major shift toward a more intensive agriculture following the Danish model would bring significantly higher crop yields but cause a great deterioration of water quality. Using vegetative cover in winter and spring (VC) would be a very efficient way to reduce future P-PO₄ loads so that they are lower than levels observed at present. However, even the best combination of measures (VC, buffer zones, reduced fertilization, and constructed wetlands) would not help to remediate heavily increased N-NO₃ loads due to climate change and agricultural intensification.     

Impact of Climate Change on Fish Population Dynamics in the Baltic Sea: A Dynamical Downscaling Investigation

Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties.     

Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study

Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical-biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961-2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission's (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results suggest that in a future climate, water quality, characterized by ecological quality indicators like winter nutrient, summer bottom oxygen, and annual mean phytoplankton concentrations as well as annual mean Secchi depth (water transparency), will be deteriorated compared to present conditions. In case of nutrient load reductions required by the BSAP, water quality is only slightly improved. Based on the analysis of biogeochemical fluxes, we find that in warmer and more anoxic waters, internal feedbacks could be reinforced. Increased phosphorus fluxes out of the sediments, reduced denitrification efficiency and increased nitrogen fixation may partly counteract nutrient load abatement strategies.     

Production and sedimentation of peptide toxins nodularin-R and microcystin-LR in the northern Baltic Sea

This seven-year survey was primarily targeted to quantification of production of nodularin-R (NOD-R), a cyclic pentapeptide hepatotoxin, in Baltic Sea cyanobacteria waterblooms. Additionally, NOD-R and microcystin-LR (MC-LR; a cyclic heptapeptide toxin) sedimentation rates and NOD-R sediment storage were estimated. NOD-R production (70-2450 μg m⁻³; ∼1 kg km⁻² per season) and sedimentation rates (particles; 0.03-5.7 μg m⁻² d⁻¹; ∼0.3 kg km⁻² per season) were highly variable over space and time. Cell numbers of Nodularia spumigena did not correlate with NOD-R quantities. Dissolved NOD-R comprised 57-100% of total NOD-R in the predominantly senescent, low-intensity phytoplankton blooms and seston. Unprecedentedly intensive MC-LR sedimentation (0.56 μg m⁻² d⁻¹) occurred in 2004. Hepatotoxin sedimentation rates highly exceeded those of anthropogenic xenobiotics. NOD-R storage in surficial sediments was 0.4-20 μg kg⁻¹ (∼0.1 kg km⁻²). Loss of NOD-R within the chain consisting of phytoplankton, seston and soft sediments seemed very effective.     

Nutrient Abatement Potential and Abatement Costs of Waste Water Treatment Plants in the Baltic Sea Region

We assess the physical potential to reduce nutrient loads from waste water treatment plants in the Baltic Sea region and determine the costs of abating nutrients based on the estimated potential. We take a sample of waste water treatment plants of different size classes and generalize its properties to the whole population of waste water treatment plants. Based on a detailed investment and operational cost data on actual plants, we develop the total and marginal abatement cost functions for both nutrients. To our knowledge, our study is the first of its kind; there is no other study on this issue which would take advantage of detailed data on waste water treatment plants at this extent. We demonstrate that the reduction potential of nutrients is huge in waste water treatment plants. Increasing the abatement in waste water treatment plants can result in 70 % of the Baltic Sea Action Plan nitrogen reduction target and 80 % of the Baltic Sea Action Plan phosphorus reduction target. Another good finding is that the costs of reducing both nutrients are much lower than previously thought. The large reduction of nitrogen would cost 670 million euros and of phosphorus 150 million euros. We show that especially for phosphorus the abatement costs in agriculture would be much higher than in waste water treatment plants.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-013-0435-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

The Effects of Hypoxia on Sediment Nitrogen Cycling in the Baltic Sea

Primary production in the eutrophic Baltic Sea is limited by nitrogen availability; hence denitrification (natural transformation of nitrate to gaseous N₂) in the sediments is crucial in mitigating the effects of eutrophication. This study shows that dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA) process, where nitrogen is not removed but instead recycled in the system, dominates nitrate reduction in low oxygen conditions (O₂ <110 μM), which have been persistent in the central Gulf of Finland during the past decade. The nitrogen removal rates measured in this study show that nitrogen removal has decreased in the Gulf of Finland compared to rates measured in mid-1990s and the decrease is most likely caused by the increased bottom water hypoxia.     

A Comprehensive Inventory of the Ship Traffic Exhaust Emissions in the Baltic Sea from 2006 to 2009

This study addresses the exhaust emissions of CO₂, NO_x, SO_x, CO, and PM_2.5 originated from Baltic Sea shipping in 2006–2009. Numerical results have been computed using the Ship Traffic Emissions Assessment Model. This model is based on the messages of the automatic identification system (AIS), which enable the positioning of ships with a high spatial resolution. The NO_x emissions in 2009 were approximately 7 % higher than in 2006, despite the economic recession. However, the SO_x emissions in 2009 were approximately 14 % lower, when compared to those in 2006, mainly caused by the fuel requirements of the SO_x emission control area (SECA) which became effective in May 2006, but affected also by changes in ship activity. Results are presented on the differential geographic distribution of shipping emissions before (Jan–April 2006) and after (Jan–April 2009) the SECA regulations. The predicted NO_x emissions in 2009 substantially exceeded the emissions in 2006 along major ship routes and at numerous harbors, mostly due to the continuous increase in the number of small vessels that use AIS transmitters. Although the SO_x emissions have been reduced in 2009 in most major ship routes, these have increased in the vicinity of some harbors and on some densely trafficked routes. A seasonal variation of emissions is also presented, as well as the distribution of emissions in terms of vessel flag state, type, and weight.     

Testing the Potential for Predictive Modeling and Mapping and Extending Its Use as a Tool for Evaluating Management Scenarios and Economic Valuation in the Baltic Sea (PREHAB)

We evaluated performance of species distribution models for predictive mapping, and how models can be used to integrate human pressures into ecological and economic assessments. A selection of 77 biological variables (species, groups of species, and measures of biodiversity) across the Baltic Sea were modeled. Differences among methods, areas, predictor, and response variables were evaluated. Several methods successfully predicted abundance and occurrence of vegetation, invertebrates, fish, and functional aspects of biodiversity. Depth and substrate were among the most important predictors. Models incorporating water clarity were used to predict increasing cover of the brown alga bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus and increasing reproduction area of perch Perca fluviatilis, but decreasing reproduction areas for pikeperch Sander lucioperca following successful implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan. Despite variability in estimated non-market benefits among countries, such changes were highly valued by citizens in the three Baltic countries investigated. We conclude that predictive models are powerful and useful tools for science-based management of the Baltic Sea.     

Development of Tools for Integrated Monitoring and Assessment of Hazardous Substances and Their Biological Effects in the Baltic Sea

The need to develop biological effects monitoring to facilitate a reliable assessment of hazardous substances has been emphasized in the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission. An integrated chemical–biological approach is vitally important for the understanding and proper assessment of anthropogenic pressures and their effects on the Baltic Sea. Such an approach is also necessary for prudent management aiming at safeguarding the sustainable use of ecosystem goods and Services. The BEAST project (Biological Effects of Anthropogenic Chemical Stress: Tools for the Assessment of Ecosystem Health) set out to address this topic within the BONUS Programme. BEAST generated a large amount of quality-assured data on several biological effects parameters (biomarkers) in various marine species in different sub-regions of the Baltic Sea. New indicators (biological response measurement methods) and management tools (integrated indices) with regard to the integrated monitoring approach were suggested.     

Increasing nitrogen limitation in the Bothnian Sea,potentially caused by inflow of phosphate-rich water from the Baltic Proper

The study showed that the open water of the Bothnian Sea (BS) is likely to have shifted from altering nitrogen and phosphorous limitations of the spring bloom to more nitrogen-limited conditions during the last 20 years. This is affected by the by inflow of phosphate-rich and oxygen-depleted water from depths near the halocline in the northern Baltic Proper, where severe oxygen conditions currently cause extreme phosphate concentrations in the deep water. The change in relation between inorganic nitrogen and phosphorous in the BS occurs first in the deep water and then progresses to the surface water. The change can potentially cause increased production in the BS and more frequent cyanobacterial blooms. There does not appear to be any immediate concern in the short-term perspective for the state of the BS, but a progression of the processes may lead to a more eutrophic state of the BS.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0675-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Temporal trends in the bioaccumulation of trace metals in herring, sprat, and cod from the southern Baltic Sea in the 1994–2003 period

This study is based on raw data obtained from 1 225 samples of herring (Clupea harengus), sprat (Sprattus sprattus), and cod (Gadus morhua) collected in the 1994–2003 period from the Polish coastal zone of the Baltic Sea. This paper presents the results of investigations of the contents of Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb, Hg, and As in fish. The aim was to identify temporal trends in trace metal contamination and variations in the concentrations of Hg in the flesh of herring, sprat, and cod of different lengths. A positive correlation between fish length and Hg concentration was noted for cod, sprat, and herring. The temporal trend analyses of heavy metal concentrations in the fish in the 1994–2003 period indicated ten significant downward trends out of eighteen tests; these referred to concentrations of Cd, Hg, and Pb in all the species studied, and to As in sprat. Concentrations of Cu and Zn remained stable in all the species studied, as did As in herring and cod. No upward trends were detected in the concentration of trace metals in the fish studied. Smaller scale temporal variations in concentrations of some elements were also observed and were associated with natural events, such as increased river discharge resulting from floods. The most likely factors which contributed to the observed downward trends in heavy metals concentrations in fish could possibly stem from lesser quantities of Cd, Pb, and Hg being introduced to the Baltic Sea with the waters of rivers from Baltic countries, including Poland, and atmospheric depositions in the 1994–2003 period. Diminishing trends of concentrations of these elements in Baltic Sea waters are also evidence of this. These facts might indicate that advantageous changes are occurring in the concentrations of heavy metals in the southern Baltic environment.     

Accidental Versus Operational Oil Spills from Shipping in the Baltic Sea: Risk Governance and Management Strategies

Marine governance of oil transportation is complex. Due to difficulties in effectively monitoring procedures on vessels en voyage, incentives to save costs by not following established regulations on issues such as cleaning of tanks, crew size, and safe navigation may be substantial. The issue of problem structure is placed in focus, that is, to what degree the specific characteristics and complexity of intentional versus accidental oil spill risks affect institutional responses. It is shown that whereas the risk of accidental oil spills primarily has been met by technical requirements on the vessels in combination with Port State control, attempts have been made to curb intentional pollution by for example increased surveillance and smart governance mechanisms such as the No-Special-Fee system. It is suggested that environmental safety could be improved by increased use of smart governance mechanisms tightly adapted to key actors’ incentives to alter behavior in preferable directions.