Does trade openness improve environmental quality?

The literature on trade openness, economic development, and the environment is largely inconclusive about the environmental consequences of trade. This study treats trade and income as endogenous and estimates the overall impact of trade openness on environmental quality using the instrumental variables technique. We find that whether or not trade has a beneficial effect on the environment varies depending on the pollutant and the country. Trade is found to benefit the environment in OECD countries. It has detrimental effects, however, on sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in non-OECD countries, although it does lower biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) emissions in these countries. We also find the impact is large in the long term, after the dynamic adjustment process, although it is small in the short term.     

Does trade openness improve environmental quality?

The literature on trade openness, economic development, and the environment is largely inconclusive about the environmental consequences of trade. This study treats trade and income as endogenous and estimates the overall impact of trade openness on environmental quality using the instrumental variables technique. We find that whether or not trade has a beneficial effect on the environment varies depending on the pollutant and the country. Trade is found to benefit the environment in OECD countries. It has detrimental effects, however, on sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in non-OECD countries, although it does lower biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) emissions in these countries. We also find the impact is large in the long term, after the dynamic adjustment process, although it is small in the short term.     

Emissions trading of global and local pollutants, pollution havens and free riding

In the presence of local (sulfur) and global (carbon) pollutants, we examine the pollution haven hypothesis and free riding behavior. Under domestic emissions trading, poorer Southern countries become pollution havens when free trade opens up whenever sulfur damage functions are linear or when sulfur levels in equilibrium are not higher in the South. With global trading of carbon permits, the pollution haven effect emerges in equilibrium whenever the convex sulfur damage functions are nonlinear. Countries that do not participate in a Global Protocol designed to reduce carbon emissions enjoy double benefits, stemming from free riding and cleaner local environments.     

Uncertainty in establishing forest reference levels and predicting future forest-based carbon stocks for REDD+

Forest reference levels (FRLs) provide a benchmark for assessing reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+), and they are central to demonstrate additionality of REDD+. Attaining realistic FRLs, however, is challenging, especially in complex mosaic landscapes. We established FRLs in northern Laos for different reference periods and tested them against actual carbon stock changes. Annual time series of Landsat satellite images were used to capture the subtle changes in carbon stocks in complex landscapes characterized by shifting cultivation. We found that FRLs differ considerably depending on the reference period chosen. Abrupt land-use changes occurred when hybrid maize replaced traditional shifting cultivation and forests, and this invalidated carbon stock trends that would have been predicted had the FRL been projected into the future. We conclude that demonstrating additionality of REDD+ in fast developing areas is difficult and that payment systems rewarding potential emission reductions against hypothetical extrapolation of FRLs are unlikely to be a cost-effective strategy.     

中国碳排放权交易市场运行状况、问题和对策研究

排污权交易理论的提出解决了发展经济与治理环境不能并行的难题。以欧盟碳排权交易体系为标志的世界范围内的碳排放权交易市场已逐步形成,碳排放权交易的实施减缓了全球气候变暖的速度,改善了人类赖以生存的生态环境,从长期看也促进了该政策实施地经济的发展。CDM机制下拥有世界上最大碳供应量的中国在国际碳排放权交易市场上却一直处于价格接受者的地位,辛苦的减排成果却给国外买家创造了丰厚的利润。国内有关碳排放权交易的理论研究与交易市场的试点运行早已在前几年展开,目前也取得了较大的进展。全国7个碳交易试点运行市场在2014年6月达到了交易的高峰期,交易量达到285.9227万吨,交易额达到了16398.2325万元。另据国家发改委统计,截至2014年10月,7个碳交易试点省市共完成交易1375万吨二氧化碳,累计成交金额超过5亿元人民币。然而这样的交易额对蕴含巨大减排潜力的中国而言远远不足,中国的碳排放权交易市场还不够成熟,试点地区的碳交易市场也比较分散,尚未形成全国统一的排放权交易市场。碳排放企业参与碳交易市场的积极性不足,导致碳排放配额流动性过低,市场交易量较低,交易市场的活跃度不够,这对想要在2016年运行全国统一性碳排放权交易市场的中国来说是一重大挑战。文章首先分析对比了国内外排污权交易市场的运行机制与现状,其次对目前中国7大碳排放交易试点地区的市场成交额与成交量等交易状况基础进行分析,找出碳排放交易市场发展缓慢的根本原因,结合碳排放权金融市场的发展与碳金融衍生产品的创新,为中国在国际排放权市场上赢得话语权以及争取是“十三五”期间构建相对成熟稳定的国内排放权交易市场的给出建议。     

PM2.5: global progress in controlling the motor vehicle contribution

It is well established that ambient particles in the size range of 2.5 microns or less case a wide variety of adverse health effects. According to a recent study from the World Health Organization, in 2010 these effects resulted in approximately 3.2million premature deaths with vehicles being one of the significant contributors. Diesel vehicle particulate emissions which are virtually all smaller than 2.5 microns raise additional special concerns due to their carcinogenicity and high ratio of black carbon （BC） to organic carbon; black carbon has recently been found to be the second most important contributor to climate change after carbon dioxide. Other pollutants emitted by diesels and other vehicles such as the oxides of nitrogen and volatile organic compounds also contribute to ambient particulate matter smaller than 2.5 microns in size （PM2.5） after undergoing secondary transformations in the atrno- sphere. Technologies have dramatically reduce vehicle been developed that can emissions when clean, low sulfur fuels are available and these technologies are being phased in throughout the industrialized world resulting in a global decrease in particulate matter （PM） and BC emissions from vehicles. However the vehicle population is growing rapidly in the developing world, leading to increases in emissions in many countries. Unless these rapidly industrializing countries move to state of the art vehicles and clean fuels, global PM, BC and NOx emissions from road vehicles will start to turn up over the next 10 to 15 years.     

Facilitating sustainable development in Chile: a survey of suitable energy technologies

Sustainable development in developing countries is the main aim of the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). However, in the present context, uncertainty prevails as to whether the CDM is actually achieving its aims in terms of achieving sustainable development and to what extent. Chile has several renewable energy and energy efficiency options with significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions abatement potential that are not yet financially and economically competitive. In order to be able to identify potential CDM projects and to formulate a series of possible investment strategies with a sustainable development component, it is crucial to establish a clear understanding of the host country's needs and priorities and the suitable sustainable energy technologies to meet these needs. The main scope of this paper is to present results obtained from an elaborated stakeholder assessment on Chile's high priority energy needs and sustainable energy technologies fulfilling these needs in order to assist Chile in finding ways of encouraging technology transfer that would contribute to low-carbon sustainable energy development.     

碳热还原二氧化硫的热力学平衡验证

用煤或焦炭作还原剂，将烟气中的二氧化硫直接还原为元素硫是一种很有应用前景的烟气处理方法。本文采用循环法研究了碳的类型、温度、以及碳用量对反应达到平衡时硫收率和ＳＯ２转化率的影响。实验结果表明，与文献的理论计算结果相比，碳用量对平衡组成的影响基本一致，而温度的影响则不尽相同。     

Economics of additionality for environmental services from agriculture

We present a model of additionality for offsets sold from agriculture to industrial sector sources regulated by cap-and-trade. We consider a potential policy where agricultural sources would not be covered by cap-and-trade requirements but would be eligible to receive offsets whenever their emissions fall below a policy-specified baseline, and would not be penalized for emissions above their baseline. Major results are: (1) The optimal baseline should be set above the average counterfactual emissions of participating farms, an unexpected result that has been missing from the literature. (2) The optimal trading ratio should be greater than one (a ton of offsets counts for less than a ton of covered emissions) even under emissions certainty. Previous research has justified such trading ratios by emissions uncertainty. (3) Emissions uncertainty does not justify a change in the baseline if the accompanying emissions model is unbiased. (4) An optimal combination of policies is to subsidize offsets and tighten the baseline relative to the no-subsidy case.     

The determinants of CO2 emissions in MENA countries: a responsiveness scores approach

This paper examines the relationship among carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, GDP, and energy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries by using a Responsiveness Scores (RS) approach. Empirical results over the period 1971–2013 suggest that GDP per capita and energy consumption show positive RSs, while trade and urban population negative ones. Moreover, energy consumption and urban population reveal moderate increasing returns to scale, while GDP per capita exhibits decreasing positive returns. Furthermore, three-way factors analysis sets out that most of the countries lays on regions with moderate negative Total Responsiveness Scores (TRS). This means that when all factors are jointly increased, CO₂ emissions have a moderate decrease. In addition, some GCC countries present a different pattern compared to the average pattern of MENA countries. Finally, radar plots indicate that, overall, RS pattern over factors is moderately heterogeneous within GCC countries, with larger variability appearing in the response to urban population and GDP.     

Carbon market and technology transfer: statistical analysis for exploring implications

The impact of clean development mechanism (CDM) projects on climate change technology transfer (CCTT), which is essential for developing countries to achieve higher mitigation targets and move towards more sustainable paths, has been, until now, inadequately understood and analysed. The aim of this paper is to analyse the carbon market contribution to CCTT, mainly through the CDM, so as to stimulate developing countries towards the deployment and diffusion of low-carbon technologies that fulfil their sustainability goals. Indeed, relatively few studies deal with the assessment of the CDM contribution to CCTT, mainly through desk analysis and empirical evaluations on project design documents. To the best of our knowledge, there are no studies dealing with CCTT through CDM projects using statistical approaches. The added value of this article is the use of statistical analysis, time series analysis and multiple linear regression to analyse carbon market experiences in selected cross-representative developing countries. This assessment indicated the very heterogeneous CCTT across CDM project types, varying significantly in terms of reliance on imported technology, mix of equipment and knowledge and source countries for the technology.     

Plant vintages, grandfathering, and environmental policy

Environmental regulations that grandfather existing plants, by not holding them to the same strict standards as new plants, may have the unintended consequence of retarding new investment. If new plants are cleaner, then this effect may increase pollution in the short run. I develop a dynamic model of a facility’s decisions over scrapping and abatement, which depend on capital depreciation, profitability shocks, and environmental policy. Using data from fossil fuel fired boilers at electric power plants, I estimate the structural parameters of the model and assess the impact of grandfathering in the Clean Air Act on sulfur dioxide emissions. Counterfactual policy simulations show that an increase in the stringency of performance standards would have led to a decrease in investment in new boilers. However, this does not lead to increased emissions, since there is less investment in dirtier coal boilers as compared to relatively cleaner oil or natural gas boilers.     

Do lower electricity storage costs reduce greenhouse gas emissions?

In the electricity sector, innovation in large-scale storage is anticipated to reduce costs and improve performance. The effect on greenhouse gas emissions of lower storage costs depends on the interactions between storage and the entire grid. The literature has disagreed on the role of storage in reducing emissions. In this paper we present a stylized model, which suggests that the effect of storage costs on emissions depends on the supply responsiveness of both fossil and renewable generators. Under common conditions in the United States, lower storage costs are more likely to reduce emissions when wind investment responds to equilibrium electricity prices and when solar investment does not. Simulations of a computational model of grid investment and operation confirm these intuitions. Moreover, because of its effect on coal and natural gas–fired supply responsiveness, introducing a carbon dioxide emissions price may increase the likelihood that lower storage costs reduce emissions.     

Understanding Recent Climate Change

Abstract:  The Earth's atmosphere has a natural greenhouse effect, without which the global mean surface temperature would be about 33 °C lower and life would not be possible. Human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and other gases in trace amounts. This has enhanced the greenhouse effect, resulting in surface warming. Were it not for the partly offsetting effects of increased aerosol concentrations, the increase in global mean surface temperature over the past 100 years would be larger than observed. Continued surface warming through the 21st century is inevitable and will likely have widespread ecological impacts. The magnitude and rate of warming for the global average will be largely dictated by the strength and direction of climate feedbacks, thermal inertia of the oceans, the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, and aerosol concentrations. Because of regional expressions of climate feedbacks, changes in atmospheric circulation, and a suite of other factors, the magnitude and rate of warming and changes in other key climate elements, such as precipitation, will not be uniform across the planet. For example, due to loss of its floating sea-ice cover, the Arctic will warm the most .     

Taking CO2 emissions into a country's productivity change: The Asian growth experience

A country's macroeconomic policies have two basic objectives: to provide its citizens with a means to make a better living and a preferable environment. For the past decades, accompanying its fantastic economic growth, fast-developing Asia has become one of the major contributors to the increase of global carbon dioxide emissions. This paper analyzes productivity growth of ten Asian countries, namely, China, Japan, the NIEs and the ASEAN-4, by examining their outputs from economic performance and environmental impact standpoints. Productivity growth and its components are calculated using the Malmquist index. There appears to be a widening gap between the productivity growth trends without/with CO₂ emissions of the ten Asian economies. This implies that the factor of productivity could be over-emphasized at great cost to the environment. A cross-country comparison analysis, considering CO₂ emissions, shows that the productivity of China and ASEAN-4 deteriorated while the productivity growth of Japan and NIEs performed much better.     

Tourism effects on the environment and economic sustainability of sub-Saharan Africa

This paper integrates tourism, economic growth, and environmental issues in a multivariate format. Unlike recent research on this topic, a panel data of selected sample nations of sub-Saharan Africa is adopted by using cointegration and panel regression models. The current research discovers both long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics between economic growth, tourism, energy use, and carbon emissions in sub-Saharan Africa. Furthermore, tourism and energy use show a highly significant direct impact on economic growth. In addition, tourism, energy use, and economic growth yield a highly significant positive effect on carbon emissions. Dissecting the region into oil producers and non-oil producers further suggests that the economic growth of sub-Saharan Africa has been accomplished by strong growth in tourism and energy use. However, there is highly significant evidence that in oil producing countries, CO₂ emissions are directly affected by energy use and economic growth and not by tourism. For non-oil producing countries, tourism and energy use but not economic growth incur a highly significant positive impact on carbon emissions.     

Salience of carbon taxes in the gasoline market

We demonstrate that the carbon tax imposed by the Canadian province of British Columbia caused a decline in short-run gasoline demand that is significantly greater than would be expected from an equivalent increase in the market price of gasoline. That the carbon tax is more salient, or yields a larger change in demand than equivalent market price movements, is robust to a range of specifications. As a result of the large consumer response to the tax, we calculate that during its first four years, the tax reduced carbon dioxide emissions from gasoline consumption by 2.4 million tonnes.     

A causal investigation on the determinants of CO2 in China

ABSTRACT

This article examines the causal relationship among carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, per capita economic growth, and international trade using temporal econometric models with serial data for the period 1980–2017 in China. In the Armax model all regressors are significant in having influenced the dependent CO2 variable. Subsequently, unidirectional causalities are identified from energy consumption and from commercial opening to carbon dioxide emissions, from commercial opening to energy consumption, from carbon dioxide emissions to per capita economic growth and from economic growth to commercial opening. These results show that, over time, more energy consumption in China results in more carbon dioxide emissions so there will be more environment pollution.     

Analysis of driving forces behind diversified carbon dioxide emission patterns in regions of the mainland of China

China has large regional disparities in carbon dioxide CO₂ emissions with economic development among its 31 provincial mainland regions. This paper investigates these disparities in CO₂ emission patterns and identifies the factors underlying the differences. Results show that the 30 study China's mainland provinces (Tibet not included) can be divided into seven groups with three typical CO₂ emission patterns. Index decomposition results indicate that changes in economic development, the industrial sector, and technology contribute far more to increased CO₂ emissions than do population, energy structure, and other sectors. Close inspection reveals that different industry structures and technology contribute greatly to the differences observed in CO₂ emissions between provinces with similar economic output. This study highlights the importance of region-specific industrial structure adjustment policies, especially for regions transitioning to heavy industry and for those still in the primary stages of industrialization. The potential application of a domestic carbon emissions trading system, to encourage regional investment in updated technology, is also discussed.     

Cumulative carbon emissions and economic policy: In search of general principles

We exploit recent advances in climate science to develop a physically consistent, yet surprisingly simple, model of climate policy. It seems that key economic models have greatly overestimated the delay between carbon emissions and warming, and ignored the saturation of carbon sinks that takes place when the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide rises. This has important implications for climate policy. If carbon emissions are abated, damages are avoided almost immediately. Therefore it is optimal to reduce emissions significantly in the near term and bring about a slow transition to optimal peak warming, even if optimal steady-state/peak warming is high. The optimal carbon price should start relatively high and grow relatively fast.