Financing climate change adaptation

This paper examines the topic of financing adaptation in future climate change policies. A major question is whether adaptation in developing countries should be financed under the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), or whether funding should come from other sources. We present an overview of financial resources and propose the employment of a two-track approach: one track that attempts to secure climate change adaptation funding under the UNFCCC; and a second track that improves mainstreaming of climate risk management in development efforts. Developed countries would need to demonstrate much greater commitment to the funding of adaptation measures if the UNFCCC were to cover a substantial part of the costs. The mainstreaming of climate change adaptation could follow a risk management path, particularly in relation to disaster risk reduction. 'Climate-proofing' of development projects that currently do not consider climate and weather risks could improve their sustainability.     

气候变化对我国农业的可能影响及适应性对策

全球气候变暖已经成了一个不争的事实。在全球气候变化背景下,我国的气温不断增高,降水和极端天气气候事件不断增多。根据气候变化情景,从区域布局、种植结构、农作物产量和品质以及设施农业等方面分析了气候变化对我国农业的可能影响,并提出了我国农业应对气候变化的适应性对策。     

The humanitarian response costs of climate change

This research attempts to improve understanding of how climate change may affect international humanitarian spending, using existing international databases that track disaster occurrence and humanitarian costs. A range of potential impact scenarios is developed employing four distinct methodological approaches. The findings indicate that climate change will have a significant impact on humanitarian costs and the increase could range from a 32 per cent increase (taking into account only changes in frequency of disasters) to upwards of a 1,600 per cent increase when other criteria, such as intensity, are also taken into account. The paper further highlights that extreme weather events do not occur in isolation and the increasing interconnectedness of world economic and political systems has made disasters more complex and destructive. It makes a number of recommendations, including the need for more rigorous and systematic collection of disaster-related data and more constructive interaction between the humanitarian and climate change communities on future research, planning and action.     

Climate forecasts in disaster management: Red Cross flood operations in West Africa, 2008

In 2008, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) used a seasonal forecast for West Africa for the first time to implement an Early Warning, Early Action strategy for enhanced flood preparedness and response. Interviews with disaster managers suggest that this approach improved their capacity and response. Relief supplies reached flood victims within days, as opposed to weeks in previous years, thereby preventing further loss of life, illness, and setbacks to livelihoods, as well as augmenting the efficiency of resource use. This case demonstrates the potential benefits to be realised from the use of medium‐to‐long‐range forecasts in disaster management, especially in the context of potential increases in extreme weather and climate‐related events due to climate variability and change. However, harnessing the full potential of these forecasts will require continued effort and collaboration among disaster managers, climate service providers, and major humanitarian donors.     

Migration as an adaptive strategy to climate variability: a study of the Tonga‐speaking people of Southern Zambia

There is increasing consensus that the effects of extreme weather conditions in the form of drought, flooding and extreme temperature will have increasingly devastating impacts on those who depend on climate‐sensitive resources and ecosystems for their livelihoods. The most affected will be the poor in developing countries who have a low adaptive capacity to climate change due to high poverty levels. Despite these projections, there are, to date, insufficient empirical studies linking the relationship between climate change and migration, particularly in the context of southern Africa. Using field‐based data collected from two study locations in Zambia, this paper examines the complex relationship between extreme weather events and population movement. It is envisaged that the findings presented in this paper will contribute to current discussions on the complex relationship between extreme weather conditions and population movement specifically in the context of sub‐Saharan Africa and other developing countries.     

Nation‐building policies in Timor‐Leste: disaster risk reduction,including climate change adaptation

Few studies have explored the relationships between nation‐building, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Focusing on small island developing states, this paper examines nation‐building in Timor‐Leste, a small island developing state that recently achieved independence. Nation‐building in Timor‐Leste is explored in the context of disaster risk reduction, which necessarily includes climate change adaptation. The study presents a synopsis of Timor‐Leste's history and its nation‐building efforts as well as an overview of the state of knowledge of disaster risk reduction including climate change adaptation. It also offers an analysis of significant gaps and challenges in terms of vertical and horizontal governance, large donor presence, data availability and the integration of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation for nation‐building in Timor‐Leste. Relevant and applicable lessons are provided from other small island developing states to assist Timor‐Leste in identifying its own trajectory out of underdevelopment while it builds on existing strengths.     

2003年我国十大极端天气气候事件

2003年我国极端天气气候事件及气象灾害发生较为频繁,特别是淮河流域特大洪水、南方持续的高温热浪及伏秋连旱,造成了严重影响.另外,低温阴雨、秋汛、台风、局地暴雨等也较为突出.本文利用我中心气候业务系统所得资料,对2003年我国极端天气气候事件作一综合评述.     

气候变化对东北地区粮食生产的影响及对策响应

东北地区粮食生产是国家粮食安全战略的重要保障,近年来受气候变化等因素的影响,东北地区粮食生产的不稳定性与风险性加大,积极响应气候变化对粮食生产的影响已成为稳定东北地区粮食生产的内在要求。本研究从东北地区气候变化特征出发,对主要粮食作物的生长发育、产量、种植制度与布局、粮食生产潜力等方面综合分析气候变化对东北地区粮食生产的影响。结果表明：(1)东北地区日照时数明显减少,降水量呈下降态势,气温显著升高。(2)东北地区旱涝灾害发生频率增加,病虫灾害累计发生面积增大,低温冷害事件明显减少。(3)气候变化改变东北地区主要粮食作物的生长发育,促进种植界限北移东扩,粮食生产潜力有明显提升但存在区域差异性,总体而言,气候变化有利于东北地区粮食生产。针对气候变化对东北地区粮食生产的综合影响,基于粮食产前、产中、产后视角,提出适应气候变化稳定东北地区粮食生产的响应策略,对于保障东北地区粮食安全具有重要意义。     

Present and future economic impacts of climate extremes in the United States

Recent studies have yielded definitive information about the nation's economic impacts from extreme climates, although some sectoral values rely on educated estimates since hard data does not exist. Review of existing measures of the national impacts from weather—climate conditions reveals annual average losses of $36 billion from extremes and gains averaging $26 billion when conditions are favorable (good growing seasons, mild winters, etc.). Comparison of these values with various measures of the national economy reveals that the impacts are relatively small, typically about 1% of the Gross Domestic Product and less than 2% of the federal budget. The current impact information provides a basis for assessing various estimates of the nation's financial impacts resulting from a future climate change due to global warming. Most such estimates predict values similar to the magnitude of current climate impacts. Moreover, most economists attempting such estimates express a large degree of uncertainty about their projections.     

Complementing institutional with localised strategies for climate change adaptation: a South-North comparison

Climate change and disasters pose a serious risk to sustainable development. In the South, local coping strategies are an important element of adaptation to climate and disaster risk. Such strategies have emerged because of the limited assistance provided by urban actors and associated social security and governance systems. In the North, in contrast, local coping strategies are comparatively poorly developed. However, the extent of the changing climatic conditions is also reducing the capacity of Northern institutions to deal with climatic extremes and variability, which emphasises the need for more local-level engagement in the North. This paper analyses the differences in local and institutional responses to climate change and disasters in a Southern and a Northern city (San Salvador, El Salvador, and Manchester, United Kingdom, respectively), and highlights how the lessons learned might be translated into an improved distributed governance system; that is, an 'integrated engagement model', where local and institutionalised responses support rather than hinder each other, as is currently the case.     

The evolving local social contract for managing climate and disaster risk in Vietnam

How do disasters shape local government legitimacy in relation to managing climate‐ and disaster‐related risks? This paper looks at how local authorities in Central Vietnam perceive their social contract for risk reduction, including the partial merging of responsibilities for disaster risk management with new plans for and investments in climate change adaptation and broader socioeconomic development. The findings indicate that extreme floods and storms constitute critical junctures that stimulate genuine institutional change. Local officials are proud of their strengthened role in disaster response and they are eager to boost investment in infrastructure. They have struggled to reinforce their legitimacy among their constituents, but given the shifting roles of the state, private sector, and civil society, and the undiminished emphasis on high‐risk development models, their responsibilities for responding to emerging climate change scenarios are increasingly nebulous. The past basis for legitimacy is no longer valid, but tomorrow's social contract is not yet defined.     

Characterizing the urban heat island in current and future climates in New Jersey

Climate change caused by increased anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other greenhouse gases is a long-term climate hazard with the potential to alter the intensity, temporal pattern, and spatial extent of the urban heat island (UHI) in metropolitan regions. Particular meteorological conditions—including high temperature, low cloud cover, and low average wind speed—tend to intensify the heat island effect. Analyses of existing archived climate data for the vicinities of Newark and Camden, New Jersey indicate urban to suburban/rural temperature differences over the previous half-century. Surface temperatures derived from a Landsat thermal image for each site were also analyzed for spatial patterns of heat islands. Potential interactions between the UHI effect and projected changes in temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover are then examined under a range of climate change scenarios, encompassing different greenhouse gas emissions trajectories. The scenarios include those utilized in the Metropolitan East Coast Regional Assessment of Climate Variability and Change and the A2 and B2 scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES).

The UHI effect was detected in Newark and Camden in both satellite surface-temperature and meteorological station airtemperature records. The average difference in urban—nonurban minimum temperatures was 3.0 °C for the Newark area and 1.5 °C for Camden. Extrapolation of current trends and the selected global climate models (GCMs) project that temperatures in the case study areas will continue to warm in the current century, as they have over the past half-century. An initial analysis of global climate scenarios shows that wind speed may decline, and that cloud cover may increase in the coming decades. These generally small countervailing tendencies suggest that urban—nonurban temperature differences may be maintained under climate change.

Overall warmer conditions throughout the year may extend the spatial and temporal dimensions of the urban-suburban heat complex. The incidence of heat-related morbidity and mortality are likely to increase with interactions between the increased frequency and duration of heat waves and the UHI effect. Camden and Newark will likely be subjected to higher temperatures, and areas experiencing UHI-like conditions and temperature extremes will expand. Thus, urban heat island-related hazard potential is likely to increase in a warmer climate.     

风险评估在气候变化对农业影响评价中的应用——研究进展

基于风险理论,探讨了气候变化风险的内涵,介绍了可用于气候变化影响评价的风险评估概念框架,并着重总结了风险评估在气候变化对农业影响评价中的应用。随着目前概率型气候情景的广泛应用及利益相关者与公众对影响评估中的不确定性认识的需求,风险评估将在气候变化影响评价中得到更为广泛的应用,气候变化对农业的影响也有望基于风险形式实现终端至终端的评估。同时,当前气候变化农业影响的风险评估研究仍有许多不足之处,真正实现综合全面的评估尚有诸多问题需要解决。     

Reducing hazard vulnerability: towards a common approach between disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation

Over the past few decades, four distinct and largely independent research and policy communities--disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation, environmental management and poverty reduction--have been actively engaged in reducing socio-economic vulnerability to natural hazards. However, despite the significant efforts of these communities, the vulnerability of many individuals and communities to natural hazards continues to increase considerably. In particular, it is hydro-meteorological hazards that affect an increasing number of people and cause increasingly large economic losses. Arising from the realisation that these four communities have been largely working in isolation and enjoyed only limited success in reducing vulnerability, there is an emerging perceived need to strengthen significantly collaboration and to facilitate learning and information exchange between them. This article examines key communalities and differences between the climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction communities, and proposes three exercises that would help to structure a multi-community dialogue and learning process.     

Disaster risk,social vulnerability,and economic development

This paper examines the extent to which economic development decreases a country's risk of experiencing climate‐related disasters as well as the societal impacts of those events. The paper proceeds from the underlying assumption that disasters are not inherently natural, but arise from the intersection of naturally‐occurring hazards within fragile environments. It uses data from the International Disaster Database (EM‐DAT), 1 representing country‐year‐level observations over the period 1980–2007. The study finds that low‐income countries are significantly more at risk of climate‐related disasters, even after controlling for exposure to climate hazards and other factors that may confound disaster reporting. Following the occurrence of a disaster, higher income generally diminishes a country's social vulnerability to such happenings, resulting in lower levels of mortality and morbidity. This implies that continued economic development may be a powerful tool for lessening social vulnerability to climate change.     

Climate change beliefs and hazard mitigation behaviors: homeowners and wildfire risk

Downscaled climate models provide projections of how climate change may exacerbate the local impacts of natural hazards. The extent to which people facing exacerbated hazard conditions understand or respond to climate-related changes to local hazards has been largely overlooked. In this article, we examine the relationships among climate change beliefs, environmental beliefs, and hazard mitigation actions in the context of wildfire, a natural hazard projected to be intensified by climate change. We find that survey respondents are situated across a continuum between being ‘believers’ and ‘deniers’ that is multidimensional. Placement on this believer–denier spectrum is related to general environmental attitudes. We fail, however, to find a relationship between climate change beliefs and wildfire risk-reduction actions in general. In contrast, we find a statistically significant positive relationship between level of wildfire risk mitigation and being a climate denier. Further, certain pro-environmental attitudes are found to have a statistically significant negative association with the level of wildfire risk mitigation.     

Environmental knowledge and human experience: using a historical analysis of flooding in Ireland to challenge contemporary risk narratives and develop creative policy alternatives

Focusing on three of the largest coastal cities in the Republic of Ireland, this paper highlights the importance of a historical analysis of flood hazards in contextualising current events and potential future risks. Over the last decade, the cities of Dublin, Cork and Galway have experienced several major coastal, river and pluvial floods. In the aftermath of these floods, two distinct but related narratives have dominated public discourse and official responses. The first narrative presents recent floods as unprecedented and as possible evidence of climate change. The second constructs floods primarily as natural events and assumes that the optimal means of reducing flood losses is to prevent flood events. In this paper, I suggest that these narratives are not supported by a historical analysis of exposure and vulnerability to flood hazards in Irish cities. This paper draws primarily on newspaper archives to construct a record of past flooding that challenges these narratives in several ways and in doing so offers lessons for similar cities in other countries. I contend that these narratives are perpetuated by a narrow form of knowledge production (quantitative risk assessment) and a narrow range of data (numeric instrumental records). Incorporating a broader range of sources and data types into risk and vulnerability assessments may illuminate more creative strategies for reducing both contemporary and future flood losses.     

Stimulating flood damage mitigation through insurance: an assessment of the French CatNat system

Flood risk has increased in France in the last 20 years and is projected to increase further in the future due to climate change and increase in exposure. Since 1982, France has had a natural disasters insurance system (‘CatNat’) in place that covers flood damage. This insurance system has been combined with what are called ‘Risk Prevention Plans’ (PPRs) in order to stimulate the undertaking of flood risk mitigation measures by communities and households. However, these schemes do not provide optimal incentives for flood damage reduction. This is confirmed by the results from a survey about flood preparedness of 885 households who live in flood-prone areas in France, which are presented in this paper. Moreover, this study provides suggestions for improvement, which are assessed on their potential economic, social and political implications. Among these suggestions are increasing the effectiveness of PPRs and increasing the incentives to apply and implement PPRs; improving the monitoring of the implementation of damage mitigation measures; and the possibility to differentiate premiums and deductibles according to flood risk.     

辽宁气候变化及若干气象灾害的事实分析

利用辽宁省1961~2005年39个气象观测站的常规地面观测资料,采用趋势分析等统计方法,分析了辽宁省近45年的气候变化特征。采用沙道夫干湿指数分析了辽宁省近45年的旱涝变化趋势;同时研究了辽宁省夏季低温冷害和沙尘天气的变化。结果表明,近45年来辽宁气温升高、降水减少,气候向暖干化方向发展。在气候变暖背景下,近45年来辽宁的干旱有增加趋势、洪涝减少,夏季低温冷害明显减少,沙尘日数减少。     

Extreme weather events and related disasters in the Philippines, 2004–08: a sign of what climate change will mean?

Being an archipelagic nation, the Philippines is susceptible and vulnerable to the ill-effects of weather-related hazards. Extreme weather events, which include tropical cyclones, monsoon rains and dry spells, have triggered hazards (such as floods and landslides) that have turned into disasters. Financial resources that were meant for development and social services have had to be diverted in response, addressing the destruction caused by calamities that beset different regions of the country. Changing climatic patterns and weather-related occurrences over the past five years (2004-08) may serve as an indicator of what climate change will mean for the country. Early recognition of this possibility and the implementation of appropriate action and measures, through disaster risk management, are important if loss of life and property is to be minimised, if not totally eradicated. This is a matter of urgent concern given the geographical location and geological characteristics of the Philippines.